Ukraine Thread

As the original thread has been closed, because of complete sidetracking. I thought of returning to the subject, because of the recent developments.

Linky: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28969784

Apparently modern Russian equipment are crawling all over the separatist controlled area in Eastern Ukraine, accompanied by familiar masked "little green men" carrying modern Russian military gear.

While the "ceasefire" at least at Donetsk airport has never really even materialized, now some experts claim that large scale warfare will start in matter of days.

I dont like this development one bit.

I was wondering when someone will reopen the discussion.

A big opportunity for peace has been missed. After the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, Russia recognized the results as legitimate will of the Ukrainian people. A few days later, elections in the rebel controlled areas were held, and representatives elected. It was a perfect occasion for two sides to recognize each other's representatives so that proper dialogue can start. Kiev refused to do so.

Instead, Kiev proceeded to physically cut the rebel controlled areas from the rest of the country - passport control, cutting them off the budget (pensions, salaries...) and refusing to supply them with basic necessities, most importantly gas for heating.

Now, all potential avenues for dialogue are closed, and there simply is no other options for people in Donetsk and Lugansk but to fight and try to secede. I'm hoping it won't come to that. but they have been cornered, there's no other way to go for them now.

I'm still trying to understand why Kiev did what they did.

It's November 13th, and Putin is still a fascist.

Don't worry I'm sure once he gets sudentanland Eastern Ukarine I'm sure he will stop. I'm not even sure those brutish drunks know how much up shit creek they really are

I hear Darth Sidious is on his way.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30039004

The Russians are transporting their dead soldiers home.

Not like we didn't know of course.

Kiev, of course, expected Russia and the Separatists to follow the proposed timetable. Likewise, Russia and the Separatists never intended to.

If the Separatists were going to hold election two days after the Ukrainian one that would have been what was reported ALL OVER THE WORLD after the Minsk talks.

I think the best we can hope for now is that Ukraine is able to push the rebels back when they launch their spring offensive (the rebels have admitted it's coming).

Well, according my Yahoo:
Putin prepared the WW3 years ago.
Russia start to feel the pinch of sanctions for months (nothing to do with the oil prices going down apparently)
Putin allied with IS.
Putin was invading Ukraine.
Bombers carrying Nuclear weapons are daily intercepted by (Norwegian, British, Polish, NATO) airplanes (pictures of Tupolev T 95 4 engines Bear as illustration)
Russian Navy spying from International Waters New-Zealand.
Bombers (again Tupolev T 95 Bear) flying near Cuba, then New-Zealand.
Russian sub-marine is being spotted by Norwegian (I think) Navy.
Russia starts to feel the pinch of Western Sanction (again).
Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are gathering near the borders with thousands of tanks.

I probably forget some.

So, it is time for Putin to DO something…

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

A big opportunity for peace has been missed. After the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, Russia recognized the results as legitimate will of the Ukrainian people.

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But the separatists never did since those were junta elections.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

A few days later, elections in the rebel controlled areas were held, and representatives elected. It was a perfect occasion for two sides to recognize each other's representatives so that proper dialogue can start. Kiev refused to do so.

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Considering the way the "elections" were held that was a sensible decision. Should Ukraine have recognized the Crimean "referendum"?

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

Instead, Kiev proceeded to physically cut the rebel controlled areas from the rest of the country - passport control, cutting them off the budget (pensions, salaries...) and refusing to supply them with basic necessities, most importantly gas for heating.

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The latter is wrong. Yatsenyuk said that they will not cut the occupied territories from gas and electricity supply for the people (some of whom surreptitiously support Ukraine) not to freeze in winter although he realizes that the services they will enjoy will not be paid for (at least so far). Experts suspect that such a decision was adopted partly because the cutting off can't be technically achieved.
As for cutting off the budget, how could you imagine the opposite? For example, a substantial part of high school and university teachers openly support DPR and proclaim themselves citizens of it - should Ukraine have them on the paylist? The same with other categories of state employees: Ukraine can't control performing their duties, so it doesn't pay them.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

Now, all potential avenues for dialogue are closed, and there simply is no other options for people in Donetsk and Lugansk but to fight and try to secede. I'm hoping it won't come to that. but they have been cornered, there's no other way to go for them now.

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Those who fight mostly have nothing to do with people of Luhansk and Donetsk (as I have pointed out elsewhere). But those who fight have already poclaimed their seccession and even held the elections to legitimize it. Consequently they have other reasons to go on fighting than seccession which they have already attained.

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

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I think the best we can hope for now is that Ukraine is able to push the rebels back when they launch their spring offensive (the rebels have admitted it's coming).

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There is no talk now of pushing back (for fear of direct Russian intervention as it was in August) but of holding the current front line. Rather it is the rebels who are pushing on (they have captured a number of checkpoints in Luhansk region since "the ceasefire" was in effect).

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Originally Posted by Brenus

So, it is time for Putin to DO something…

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He is doing it all the time (the reports of recent reinforcements and weapon supplies across the border come from different quarters). If you don't see it it doesn't mean it isn't there.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Linky: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28969784

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The linked article claims that

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that all they agreed to in Minsk was to hold elections "in co-ordination with, not in line with" Ukrainian election plans.

Compare point 9 of Minsk protocol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
Now who's lying - BBC or Putin?

And I don't like the thread title - The empire struck back on August 24. Now it strikes on.

https://i.imgur.com/6PMSWfd.jpg

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

Man, the koala on the right looks really uncomfortable. And what happened to thier fur?

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

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That's not entirely true.

Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival. If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions. If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.

Added to this, whilst Ukraine is not exactly a bastion of democracy and due process the rebel areas are led by Junta's holding obvious sham elections using rifles and potatoes. Whilst there will be majority-rebel areas in both provinces there will also be pro-Kiev areas and the prospect of partition is more bloodshed within those provinces as undesirable "traitors" are expelled.

In related news - all government-run services in rebel held areas are being withdrawn: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30072483

It's only logical, for as much as it will hurt the common man Kiev can't subsidise rebel rule.

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

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Originally Posted by Viking

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

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Putin is making sure no Russian speaking koalas are oppressed in Australia.

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions.

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They will not stop at administrative borders but will move on to "liberate the people of entire Novorossia from the junta". From what I hear the rebel-held territories are being contested between different groups of separatists to get access and control over businesses practised there. Other important sources of income for them are car thefts (with their subseqent transportation to Russia) and scrap metal collecting (again with subsequent delivery to Russia) since a lot of broken military machinery is left to rust in the open. Some of separatists (namely Chechens) are more inventive - they erect checkpoint (even in places which are far away from the frontline) and take tolls from cars for passing through.

“If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.” Looks like from Erick Falkenhayn who believed “to wear down the defences of the French and bleed their army white”. With the success we know. The question is why the Ukrainian would not bleed as well, as the German did in France?

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

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I dont think Crimea has been forgotten. It is just simple fact that there is no will from anyone to do anything about it. Ukraine cant take Crimea back via military means, because they simply do not have means to do so. West could impose more economic sanctions towards Russia, but those sanctions would start to hamper the economy of Europe as well, so it would seem that everyone has just accepted the situation as it is.

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Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

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Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

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Originally Posted by Brenus

Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc.

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I like that "probably". Probably weapons, probably tanks, probably ammo, probably fuel. So there is still a fat chance that the Lugandonians have plants working for them that produce all those things, isn't there?

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Originally Posted by Brenus

Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.

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Once we had an international treaty (culminating in the Budapest memorandum) that guaranteed some things for Ukraine. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
After that (in 1997) in Ukrainian-Russian treaty - of friendship and cooperation, btw - Russia explicitly guaranteed Ukraine's integrity and sovereignty. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
It's not been yet three months since Ukraine signed the Minsk protocol. What stipulations of it (except the prisoners' exchange) were fulfilled by Russia and by "probably" assisted by Russia separatists?
Now Ukrainians don't want to be cheated again by Russian promises.

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Originally Posted by Greyblades

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

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America and the UK (and Russia) undertook a commitment 20-odd years ago to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up it's nuclear weapons.

So, in fact, the US does have some legal obligations here, as does the UK. Further, a Ukraine is a NATO ally it is accurate to say that "the US does not help its allies".

The Ukraine is most certainly not a NATO member and as for legal obligations: citation needed.

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Originally Posted by Brenus

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

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I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

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Back in time? I want territory X has never gone out of style -- despite our benighted attempts to assume we are "past" all such things.

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

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Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

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I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

In little more than a decade he has turned a joke of a Union into a nation that is a sincere BIG dog on the international scene, and he has over and over out-played the "one supreme super power" we are said to have.

Pax Americana my ***.

The US had its quick minutes of fame between 1995 and 2015... 20 years is not bad for an empire, but it's not really that cool either.

Unfortunately, the only thing contributed to the world was never ending wars, a backstep when it comes to secularity as a state idea and a failed economic system.

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Originally Posted by Kadagar_AV

I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

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Not really sure about that, but if it were a video game, there would have been massive cries to nerf Putin.




It would be nice if we don't let the thread deteriorate like the last one did. It seems all out war is pretty much inevitable now. Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

European statements tend to go from "moar sanctions" to "let's cut back a little", without clear idea what to do.

Putin will always win the chess game as long as Europe continues to buy natural gas from Russia. Currently, 30% of natural gas Europe uses comes from Russia. I think it is possible to reduce that 30% down if Europe was willing. But energy prices are high in Europe already, so it all depends on whether it is worth it to the EU to sacrifice a few eastern countries in order to keep the energy market status quo.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe.

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Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

https://i568.photobucket.com/albums/...hge/DrEvil.jpg

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

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It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

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This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

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the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China

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AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

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Unless those states openly proclaim their desire to take their way elswhere except Russia they are safe. But the moment they do Russia will play its traditional card of protecting Russian-speaking communities (and in Khazakhstan, for instance it is quite sizeable). But even without that Zhirinovsky claims that northern Khazakhstan (if not the whole of it) is historically Russian territory. Putin himself, in one his portentous historical speeches, commended Nazarbayev on creating a state where it has never existed.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/69771
Whence there is one step to a claim that Russia has a right to own what Russian empire has owned for quite a time.

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Originally Posted by HoreTore

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

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That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

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It works both ways. It would take a lot of time and a lot of effort for Europe to switch suppliers. Only significant producer of natural gas that is close enough is Iran. Even if Europe manages to find another supplier that can produce as much natural gas as Europe needs, it still needs infrastructure to get that gas transported to Europe, which means new pipelines. LNG also needs infrastructure and is much more expensive than pipeline natural gas. Russia will most certainly manage to finish Chinese pipeline before, and anyway, we're talking about 5-10 years in the future.

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This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

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You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation. They can't be wooed back now. Whether one supports Kiev or rebels, it would seem that the only way Kiev comes out on top is if it manages to defeat the rebels by military means, which I believe is impossible.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

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I'd say that Russia's on the rise, rather than decline, so waiting it out will fail. Even if you're right, that's several decades in the future. Nobody likes the idea of a frozen conflict for the next 25+ years.

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I'd say that Russia's on the rise

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On what basis?

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

On what basis?

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All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

<5% per annum is extremely high?

In a world where austerity is given a time of day, it is.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

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Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

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Originally Posted by HoreTore

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

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You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish :smitten:

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

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It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish :smitten:

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It's not like I'll be able to influence anything; might as well enjoy the ride....

While Putin is being a fascist and his eastern Ukrainian allies are up to their old tricks rigging sham elections, I might as well be happy that this will benefit myself.

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

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That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

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Originally Posted by HoreTore

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

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There seems to be talk about a particular demographic crisis in Russia.

Considering that this population decline will coincide with population growth of many of the more troublesome minorities (various peoples of the Caucasus etc), Russia would appear to be facing problems that you can't really compare with Western Europe.

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

There seems to be talk about a particular demographic crisis in Russia.

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I'm not disagreeing on a demographic crisis in Russia; just that the two features you mentioned are ones found in every western European country.

One one hand, Putin could always grant the migrant workers in Russia - millions of them - full citizenship.

On the other hand, the EUSSR could always import more blacks and Muslims. :wiseguy:

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Originally Posted by Ironside

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

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It's 8-9th today (2013 data). 2001, 2002... 2013, 2014 data. All projections show the same thing. Russia is under sanctions at the moment and suffering from significantly lower oil prices, but it shot over the 0.2% last quarter growth the West was predicting, having 0.8% instead. Eurozone had 0.7% for comparison. Sanctions coming back to bite EU.

The overall economic balance of power is shifting and the West is declining in relative power. BRIC and MINT will be the dominating force economically. Western sanctions are insignificant in the long term.

Russia will also grow in relative power. While now Russia has 1/3 of combined GDP of Germany and France, in 2050 it will have between 30% and 40% of the entire EU.

The trend can not be ignored. Waiting for Russian power to wane is a strategy doomed to fail.

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

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And your claim is more accurate than all the world's experts because.... ?

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Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

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It's nominal. It's hard predicting PPP in 2050.

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all the world's experts

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Where?

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Where?

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Everywhere. Google it. Give or take, Russia's at the top and it's economic strength has increased, both in absolute and relative terms.

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Everywhere. Google it.

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All the experts I'm reading of predict stagnation at best.

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it's economic strength has increased, both in absolute and relative terms.

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Well, yeah? So has everyone else's in the world. That's not an argument for anything in particular.

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Russia's at the top

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Now you're just overplaying your hand.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

All the experts I'm reading of predict stagnation at best.

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I'd like to see that one, please.

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Well, yeah? So has everyone else's in the world. That's not an argument for anything in particular.

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Not everyone can increase in power relative to others. That's impossible.

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Now you're just overplaying your hand.

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At the top meaning among the most powerful nations in the world economically. Not literally in the first position. Sorry, literal translation of a Serbian phrase to English. My bad.

In an interview with German ARD, Putin finally admits in no uncertain terms that his guys were out blocking Ukrainian military bases (12:39):

http://youtu.be/BdlXqyZHB9k?t=12m39s

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Our armed forces literally blocked the Ukrainian forces located in Crimea.

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But that is still vague enough to deny specific incidents, allowing him and his apologists some leeway while Crimea is still a hot potato.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

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I don't really disagree with much of this, but I don't see how it speaks to my post.

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Not everyone can increase in power relative to others. That's impossible.

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In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/co...012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-...r-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvpor...AL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/co...012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-...r-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvpor...AL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

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Growth projections have been slashed across the board, but all of your links except the first predict a good growth rate for Russia and always better than Eurozone.

The first is rather weird, but they predicted 0.25% growth for the last quarter while in reality it was 0.8%.

The fourth mentions "bleak outlooks" but the entire article consists of weasel words, without mentioning a single figure anywhere.

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy. Regardless how successful that reform is, economic growth in Asia and Africa will keep the price of resources and energy high for the foreseeable future, which means Russian economy is safe for the next several decades. If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

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If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

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Just to note that even if Russia turns away from Europe economically, it will still depend quite a bit on its performance via the world economy. Diaschisis is a useful concept.

Actually, that's one of the interesting things. Tangential to us right now, but the larger links above - as well as other similar sources - consistently predict that GDP per capita, and living standards more generally, will lag behind the Western peak by anywhere from 1/3-1/2 for countries like Russia and China, and 3/4 for countries like India and Brazil.

However, I do note that this is probably an overly-linear view of economic growth in our time, and that technological developments could upset these analyses both in and outside the West.

Look at microbanking in the developing world - after all, this is financial access based on widespread cell-phone usage that we're talking about!

TLDR, I don't like Russia's prospects on the (inter)national scale, but don't really trust any specific analysis past 2030. The links above were simply to demonstrate that there are indeed many pessimistic perspectives on Russian development.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation.
They can't be wooed back now.

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Do you suggest Ukraine should pay pensions and salaries to the Crimea as well to woo it back? Own up to it: the moment the conflict grew into a military confrontation with Russia actively participating, it is not the separatists who decide on options. Russia is the one to stop it at any moment it wishes by withdrawing whatever military support it is giving and sealing the border against any penetrations both ways. Since Russia is not interested in it now and goads the separatists on and on I see no solution to the conflict except keeping the Lugandonians at bay beyond the existing frontlines.

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Originally Posted by Viking

In an interview with German ARD, Putin finally admits in no uncertain terms that his guys were out blocking Ukrainian military bases (12:39):

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I know some people here on the forum who will again start looking for metaphors in Putin's words to deny the fact that he was lying back in spring when he said that Russian soldiers were not instrumental in occupying Crimea.
Moreover, in this interview Putin said that if some dissidents decide to fight they will find a way of getting weapons. He sounds like the separatists find weapons on their own without him being aware where they get them.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy.

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This obstacle is minor in comparison to corruption. Among the most recent cases, Sochi olympics were exemplary notorious for embezzlements and other financial abuses. 2018 World Cup is the one that is likely to surpass Sochi.

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.

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One of the things that happened in Afghanistan was that various tribes would tell the Americans that people from another tribe were "terrorists". In one instance two American patrols with local guides called down air strikes on each other.

As I said months ago, I'm sure there was a legitimate sense of grievance in these areas, but a few hardliners, probably with Russian support from the start, turned this into a war and dragged everyone else in.

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

One of the things that happened in Afghanistan was that various tribes would tell the Americans that people from another tribe were "terrorists". In one instance two American patrols with local guides called down air strikes on each other.

As I said months ago, I'm sure there was a legitimate sense of grievance in these areas, but a few hardliners, probably with Russian support from the start, turned this into a war and dragged everyone else in.

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Did I mention Putin is a great strategist?

Regardless, a source would be nice... :)

It's November 20th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

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Originally Posted by Strike For The South

It's November 20th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

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You kind of come off as having learnt a cool phrase from someone you looked up to, and then you just go on applying it every chance you have.

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Originally Posted by Kadagar_AV

You kind of come off as having learnt a cool phrase from someone you looked up to, and then you just go on applying it every chance you have.

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And what the hell do you think law school is about?

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

And what the hell do you think law school is about?

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Keeping people who argue like SFTS out?

It's November 21st and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

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Originally Posted by Strike For The South

It's November 21st and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

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Oh come on, I can program my pocket watch to give more intelligent replies.

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Originally Posted by Kadagar_AV

Oh come on, I can program my pocket watch to give more intelligent replies.

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You assume the point is a well crafted statement

"It's November 21st". :2thumbsup: You've got the date right...

I'm just interested - what's the point of spelling his name wrong every time?

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

I'm just interested - what's the point of spelling his name wrong every time?

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I assume Valid-Amir, that sounds like a cartoon character and amir is a high arab title of sorts.
1. It makes him cartoonish and mocks him
2. he's obviously a terrorist!
3. The entire sentence is about brainwashing anyway
4. Don't think, just hate Purten!

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Originally Posted by Husar

I assume Valid-Amir, that sounds like a cartoon character and amir is a high arab title of sorts.
1. It makes him cartoonish and mocks him
2. he's obviously a terrorist!
3. The entire sentence is about brainwashing anyway
4. Don't think, just hate Purten!

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Possibly, but overthinking Strike's statement is usually a wrong move. If it weren't for the exact same misspelling, I would have just assumed he is that disinterested or that he posted drunk.

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Originally Posted by Kadagar_AV

Oh come on, I can program my pocket watch to give more intelligent replies.

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You, a high-tech Euroweenie Austro-Swede are still using a pocket watch? Now I know where to send all those old fobs I have lying around.....

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

You, a high-tech Euroweenie Austro-Swede are still using a pocket watch? Now I know where to send all those old fobs I have lying around.....

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Self defense reasons...

I armed up rather massively since my little cultural clash some months ago. Steel chain pocket watch in one hand, 4000lumen flashlight with stroboscopic mode in the other, that can double as a baton, and a 45kg wolf to guard my rear and flanks...

As it's a pocket watch, it doesn't count as a concealed weapon (eventhough it sure is).

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/poli...nt-372707.html

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Originally Posted by Kadagar_AV

Self defense reasons...

I armed up rather massively since my little cultural clash some months ago. Steel chain pocket watch in one hand, 4000lumen flashlight with stroboscopic mode in the other, that can double as a baton, and a 45kg wolf to guard my rear and flanks...

As it's a pocket watch, it doesn't count as a concealed weapon (eventhough it sure is).

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One thing you still lack and that is a light saber. Too proud and trustful in weapons you are. Use the force that is within you.

Meanwhile back to the topic.
Girkin gave an interview to the Russian newspaper Zavtra (what kind of newspapaer it is - http://www.rferl.org/content/russias.../25425155.html)

in which he claimed responsibility for the current war in Ukraine and admitted that if it hadn't been for his interference, the conflict would have ended like it did in Kharkiv or Odesa. This is for those who still believe that we are having a civil conflict in Ukraine and Russia has nothing to do with it.
http://zavtra.ru/content/view/kto-tyi-strelok/
Couldn't find a translation of it, sorry.

==> http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ne/511584.html

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Russian national Igor Strelkov, a former commander of pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine, has claimed "personal responsibility" for unleashing the conflict across the border, in which 4,300 people have been killed since April.

"I was the one who pulled the firing trigger of this war," Strelkov said in an interview published Thursday with Russia's Zavtra newspaper, which espouses imperialist views.

"If our unit hadn't crossed the border, in the end everything would have fizzled out, like in [the Ukrainian city of] Kharkiv, like in Odessa," Strelkov, also known as Girkin, was quoted as saying.

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As usual, the part you chose to quote doesn't match the contents of the article.

He talks about Ukrainian military being reluctant to get involved and that first units or "raiding parties" were ultranationalists like Right Sector. If he (his unit) hadn't been involved, they would have quelled resistance quickly like they did earlier. He takes full responsibility for resisting them, which triggered the war, otherwise, ultranationalists would have just rolled over eastern Ukraine.

He also mentions that practically all of the local population was pro-Russian, that they were extremely disappointed with lack of proper support from Russia and that they were shocked when Russia rebuffed them after the referenda held.

It's November 23rd and Validamir Putin is still a fascist

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

As usual, the part you chose to quote doesn't match the contents of the article.

He talks about Ukrainian military being reluctant to get involved and that first units or "raiding parties" were ultranationalists like Right Sector. If he (his unit) hadn't been involved, they would have quelled resistance quickly like they did earlier. He takes full responsibility for resisting them, which triggered the war, otherwise, ultranationalists would have just rolled over eastern Ukraine.

He also mentions that practically all of the local population was pro-Russian, that they were extremely disappointed with lack of proper support from Russia and that they were shocked when Russia rebuffed them after the referenda held.

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So triggering the war was a better solution than an imagined "ultranationalists' roll over eastern Ukraine"? I wonder what were the earlier casualties after such a roll elsewhere? Even if we consider the ones in Odesa (which were caused by the pro-Russians attacking a football fans march not by Right Sector), are they comparable to what is going on in Donbas now?
As usual, you believe any pro-Russian or (in this case) Russian, especially those who try to find a just cause for penetrating another country and starting a war there.
As usual, you are missing the whole point: even Russians admit that there wouldn't be any war in Ukraine if Russia hadn't interfered (which is what I have been saying for half a year while others were babbling about suppressed minorities with local grievances who wage a just war against Kiev nazis).