Mafia VIII: Return of the Recommencement of the Revenge of the Mafia [Concluded]

[Csargo]

Vote:Privateerkev

[Privateerkev]

*sigh*

[woad&fangs]

Do you guys think a Disco-Sasaki pairing is possible?

[Kagemusha]

Ok i will have to soon go to sleep,have to work tomorrow. So disco! Here is what you need:



You need to save the town from these lurking mafia bastards vote Makaikhaan, once we have a tie we can crack this mafia down, otherwise we will loose.

[Csargo]

Do you guys think a Disco-Sasaki pairing is possible?

I don't think they'd have a choice.

[Privateerkev]

Do you guys think a Disco-Sasaki pairing is possible?

Doubtful.

Disco piled onto Sasaki during the pointless bandwagon on him on D1. And Disco was absent when Sasaki was tied for the lynch on D5.

[woad&fangs]

Yes, but he had already declared he would follow the bandwagon smiley. If it was offered on day 1 and he didn't follow it then him and Sasaki would have been lynched immediatly. In that situation, trusting Sasaki's to get himself out of the bandwagon would be the obvious choice.

As it stands I can see the following situations

Disco-Sasaki
Makaikhaan-Tincow
Kage-?(seriously, who could it be?)

I can't find any real link between Sarathos and the lynchees plus I simply don't think he is good enough to fool us as completely as this mafia has.

btw, Dear Mafioso, whoever you may be. You have played an excellant game and probably deserve to win regardless of whether we lynch you or not.

[Privateerkev]

Yes, but he had already declared he would follow the bandwagon smiley. If it was offered on day 1 and he didn't follow it then him and Sasaki would have been lynched immediatly. In that situation, trusting Sasaki's to get himself out of the bandwagon would be the obvious choice.

But he was still missing when Sasaki was tied for the lynch on D5:

Sasaki Kojiro: 2 (makaikhaan, Seamus Fermanagh)
Kommodus: 2 (Gaius Scribonius Curio, Sigurd Fafnesbane)

Here is D5A:

Sasaki Kojiro: 5 (Ichigo, Seamus Fermanagh, Gaius Scribonius Curio, KukriKhan, CountArach)
Kommodus: 3 (Sasaki Kojiro, discovery1, Sigurd Fafnesbane)

The only person who really tried to save Sasaki was Sigurd who was later murdered.

Also keep in mind that Sasaki abstained in D5 when he was tied for the lynch. My guess is that he was innocent.

[TinCow]

Well, there isn't any reason why Kage-pever isn't possible. It was scoffed at before, and it is unlikely, but not impossible.

I would also look for links between any of the surviving 4 and Seamus. I just can't shake the notion that he was our lynched mafioso.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The case against 'khaan:

He's a lurker, using a convenient absence just like Andres used a move -- to lay low with a verifiable excuse. In his favor, going that close to WOG status is not a good protection tool -- and a little risky for any mafios.

The case against Sara':

He's a lurker, using absence to lay low. Again, the risk of WOG is a mitigating here as GH WOULD WOG a mafiaoso just as readily as anyone else.

The case against Kage':

Sharp player, always around and pushing but never really taking a coordinated analytical effort. A classic mafia ploy -- being helpful but never quite enough. In his favor, his posting frew and style are fairly close to the baseline.

The case against Disco':

He's managed to vote every other session (more or less) save for these last two. In the past, he's tended to vote more regularly (if just as flippantly) or missed several votes in a row (and has been wogged for same).
Also, if you believe 'Kev is mafia, then Disco' is his partner. Disco is the only one I can think of, aside from Sasaki, who'd consider a "offer up your partner round one so that he's a mostly credible foil" gambit (and Sasaki's not suited to the passive partner role by inclination).


And no, I am not saying this to protect my mafia partner, because I am not/was not a mafioso in this game.

[Beefy187]

Sarathos posted on BR but not on here

[GeneralHankerchief]

Disco is the only one I can think of, aside from Sasaki, who'd consider a "offer up your partner round one so that he's a mostly credible foil" gambit (and Sasaki's not suited to the passive partner role by inclination).

Seamus, I'm mortified! I must be slipping.

[Privateerkev]

Also, if you believe 'Kev is mafia, then Disco' is his partner. Disco is the only one I can think of, aside from Sasaki, who'd consider a "offer up your partner round one so that he's a mostly credible foil" gambit (and Sasaki's not suited to the passive partner role by inclination).

I quite simply do not trust Disco enough to have faith that he could last a whole game without getting himself lynched.

I would trust Sasaki or TC enough to pull that off. But there is no one left alive that I would try that gambit with.

If I was mafia in this game, with Disco as my partner, I would try to stay alive because I would fear that his goofing-off-meatball-votes would get him lynched.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

IMO, it has to still be Kage or Disco.

I'm still convinced that it is Kage!

So with this in mind... Disco you need to vote Kage to save the town!

(And to make sure... ... ...Gah I can't find it! (The bandwagon smiley that is) This will have to do: )

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Seamus, I'm mortified! I must be slipping.

Apologies mine host!

You have the nerve and the verve to try virtually anything -- and have bested me in single combat when I held all the cards! -- but I failed to list you as you are always the host in these games where the classic 1/2 mafia = 2 kills apply and hence when such a gambit might be valid.

No offense intended.

[TinCow]

I quite simply do not trust Disco enough to have faith that he could last a whole game without getting himself lynched.

I would trust Sasaki or TC enough to pull that off. But there is no one left alive that I would try that gambit with.

I appreciate the compliment, but I certainly was trying to not be lynched in this game and that didn't work out so well. While getting yourself intentionally lynched first round is an interesting and absurdly bold strategy for a mafioso duo, it relies so heavily on luck that I would (probably) never try it.

[Privateerkev]

I appreciate the compliment, but I certainly was trying to not be lynched in this game and that didn't work out so well. While getting yourself intentionally lynched first round is an interesting and absurdly bold strategy for a mafioso duo, it relies so heavily on luck that I would (probably) never try it.

No, I meant I would trust you or Sasaki to stay alive by yourselves as mafia while I go and suicide the first turn.

I certainly wouldn't trust many others enough to live through the whole game alone as mafia.

[discovery1]

IMO, it has to still be Kage or Disco.

I'm still convinced that it is Kage!

So with this in mind... Disco you need to vote Kage to save the town!

(And to make sure... ... ...Gah I can't find it! (The bandwagon smiley that is) This will have to do: )

Eh, bandwagon only works with it comes the players official vote. That and I think you were mafia. Course I am also starting to suspect Kage.

Also im starting to think that maybe this last round I shouldn't goof off. But if I do that I'm probably dead.

Finally I'm thinking what I will do is just pick a player at random at the last second, or maybe pick on ichi for his bad connection.

[Sarathos]

So that I have seemingly appeared from nowhere but I have a similar story to Makaikhaan, this is the first time I have been in a computer in about a week. My family insist on travelling a lot on the holidays.....

Another reason why I appeared is that GH pmed me saying that I was one of the last four and needed to vote. It is a critical time and I don't want to dissapoint you guys anymore than I have.

[Csargo]

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[Kommodus]

I admit doing well in this game is hard work but to me the fun is in figuring out that which is unknown. As a townie, I want to be a detective and try to glean a vital clue from all the mud in here. I don't mind that the mafia make things difficult. That is their job. But I get tired of townies making the game harder because they are busy, lazy, bored, or whatever. And I don't mean new players. They are excused. But many people here have a pattern of signing up and then not committing to the game, or even worse, trying to mess with the game just for fun.

I would just like to take this opportunity to apologize to GH and all the players for not taking part in this game after signing up. I'm Sorry.

I want you guys to know, especially those who haven't played with me before, that this is not my normal pattern at all. What can I say? Life is changing, priorities are changing. If I sign up for mafia games in the future, I'll make sure I am able to participate. My ignoble exit from this game was well-deserved.

I've spent some time this evening looking over the missing/added letters in GH's posts. I haven't found a solid clue in them yet, but I would like to point out one thing. In certain cases, a word that is missing letters in one place appears elsewhere with the missing letters added back in. For example, the word "sufficiency" is incorrectly spelled in two places as follows:

suffiency
sufficiciency

So the "ci" is missing in the first case and added in the second.

I've found a total of only four places where this is the case:

suffiency/sufficiciency (missing letters = CI)
comission/commmission (missing letters = M)
extraordinare/extraordinaiire (missing letters = I)
occured/occurrred (missing letters = R)

Add all these together and you get CIMIR. Which means, well, nothing at all to me.

After reviewing the remaining four suspects, it is my opinion that Kagemusha is mafia. Though it could also be discovery1, given this obviously incorrect reasoning:

Hell our complete and utter lack of participation is a sign of not being mafia. After all, mafia would probably care enough to participate, don't you agree Gaius Scribonius Curio?

Disco has been posting very sparsely all game long, but there haven't been many rounds in which he hasn't posted at all (just one by my count), and he's never been under any sort of pressure. To me, it looks very much like he could be employing a particular strategy.

So either Kagemusha or discovery1. It would probably be better if those who, unlike me, have been paying attention all along to make the choice.

[Privateerkev]

Disco has been posting very sparsely all game long, but there haven't been many rounds in which he hasn't posted at all (just one by my count), and he's never been under any sort of pressure. To me, it looks very much like he could be employing a particular strategy.

Disco has missed 5 rounds, not 1. I go by GH's terms for voting. If you post during the day phase at all, but do not vote, he puts you down as "abstain". If you do not post at all during that day phase, then you "didn't vote". So, any "no votes" in my table mean that player was missing for that entire day period.

Sadly Disco's absences aren't the worst. There were WoG's where people had missed at least 6 day phases before being WoG'd. And strangely, there was one WoG (Fenring) that only missed 3. So, I guess GH is not using a set specific criteria for WoGging.

[Sigurd]

edit: [snip] (table can't be quoted)

There was one WoG (Fenring) that only missed 3.

Really? ...

This paints an interesting picture. My guess is that Fenrig was WoG'ed for 3 consecutive no votes and not 3 in total.
But using that criteria both khaan and Kage should be in trouble.
If you take away the extra votes (tie votes) only khaan is in trouble. To be fair he should meet the same fate that met Fenrig, yet he is still alive.
More lenient towards Mafiosi GH?

Heh, this should be the norm in future games. WoG townies early and mafiosi late. That way the lurking mafiosi will stand out like a sore thumb.

[FactionHeir]

Hmmm CIMIR.

Up to D5a: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=804
N6: E
D6: assumed to be complete
N7:
consiidering (added i)
Unfortnately (missing u)
suffciciency (added c)
commmissions (added m)
Extraordinaiire (aaded i)
stuffd (missing e)
occurrred (aaded r)

Can someone find the letters of the rest writeups? Or did Kommodus have a list of all somewhere?

[TinCow]

Have we tried to do the letter puzzle, but remove the 'added' letters? For instance, if an I is missing at one point, but then is added later on, have we tried removing the I from the sequence altogether? (I seriously can't remember.)

[FactionHeir]

In my first linked post I have.

[Kagemusha]

I still believe that the mafia is Makaikhaan and Tincow. Khaan might have been actually absent while Tincow have orchestrated the mafia actions. It seems more clear more i think about it. Tincow could easily come up with the smokescreen like the word puzzle. Also he seems determined to get me lynched, while he couldnt answer what he is basing his statements like "there is strong evidence against Kagemusha. The thread also gives away that Khaan and Tincow have acted in unison, seemingly protecting one another and voting different persons on different rounds to keep each other alive.

For my part. The strongest defense i can make is that those who know how i play these games, should understand that as mafia i would not put myself in this kind of situation, where im the obvious lynch bait, for example Sarathos, you should know as we have been in the same mafia team. Has it been me the mafia, i would have used Kukri as lynch bait.

To the people who criticise me of not being helpful or not being enough helpful. If being helpful means that i should post voting patterns through out the game or how many posts people make and judge them based on that who is the mafia, i have one word for you, Holmes.

Kommodus can vouch me on this because last time when we were mafia partners, Kommodus run Holmes on me through out the game in testing purposes. His judgement was that i didnt look guilty at all based on that method. So i apologize for not conducting such observation on players via method i think one can fool.

So to Sarathos and disco. Think these things. The main issue being, if i would be mafia, would i have played the end game like this. Also look carefully those who are most eager to get me lynched and try to find a motivation for their behavior. My vote is placed and it will not move, unless something rather amazing happens, think about how well you have thought who you have voted or are going to vote.

[Sarathos]

I can't find any real link between Sarathos and the lynchees plus I simply don't think he is good enough to fool us as completely as this mafia has.

You have a very good point there Kage, but I am still unsure whether to believe it or not.

I am going to take a risk and Unvote:Kagemusha and Vote:Makaikhaan. I have had time to think this over, Maka using his usual tactics the link between TinCow and Makaikhaan does sound very believable.

[TinCow]

While the reasoning may be faulty behind the vote change, I do think that khaan is the best choice between the three lurkers. If we absolutely have to lynch one of those three, he would be my preference as well. I still think Kage is the best choice, but there is still some hope of a victory if khaan is stretched.

[Kommodus]

Disco has missed 5 rounds, not 1. I go by GH's terms for voting. If you post during the day phase at all, but do not vote, he puts you down as "abstain". If you do not post at all during that day phase, then you "didn't vote". So, any "no votes" in my table mean that player was missing for that entire day period.

I was going by posts during the entire round, including night phases. By that method, disco has missed only one round entirely (I think round 2). I don't recall GH's exact criteria for WoGing, but from memory I think disco's minimalist level of participation would be enough to spare him from the axe.

Tincow could easily come up with the smokescreen like the word puzzle.

See, this is what I don't get about you, Kage. GH promised some sort of "twist" at the start of this game. This is the final round, and the word puzzle is the only candidate we have so far for being that twist. The statements in French are always part of Beirut's pronouncements, not part of the mafia's kills, and in GH's games the mafia have never had the sort of total control over the writeups that would be required to create a word puzzle like this.

So what makes you so convinced that the puzzle is the invention of the mafia?

I tried taking the list of removed letters, then subtracting from that list the letters that were added back into the four words I mentioned in my earlier post (CIMIR). The resulting jumbled list of letters appeared to almost contain the word INVESTIGATE (except that it was short one T; maybe I'd missed something?). After subtracting the letters of the word INVESTIGATE, I was left with the following letters:

SANSUE

Which, again, means nothing to me.

EDIT: Also, what do people think of makaikhaan's very long absence? Usually in GH games, both mafiosi have to send in kills in order to get two kills (unless one of them is dead and the survivor is doing everything). Khaan just vanished for an extended period of time. I would like to know why he's under suspicion.