Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia

[Marshal Murat]

Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.

[PBI]

If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.

Pretty much my thoughts. I certainly don't think this conflict is necessarily as black and white as some are making out, and I certainly see no reason to pick sides. Seems to me the best we can hope for is for the conflict to be over quickly, with relatively little bloodshed.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.

I was pretty serious. The Russians are hypocrites at best, imperialists at worse. The Georgians and Ossetians are probably equally guilty of slaughter, though the Ossetians come off better because they were losing until the Russians got involved. If intervention turns military, that can only end in (more) tears.

[nokhor]

i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.

[Decker]

i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.

Ahh see but you're missing the fact that Russia has also threatened military action against Georgia over S. Ossetia before the cease-fire and so they had their military pretty much ready to go. And when the ceasefire was confirmed the day before the "invasion," Georgian military forces were already prepared to invade as it was. So from what has happened, Georgia commenced a very quick strike against S. Ossetia's capital as they probably were preparing to do so before the "ceasefire," and probably hoped to be in position to adequately fend off any serious Russian advance.

And as for the road leading in, I've read that there are two roads, one being a tunnel, and from the pictures and video, it appears the Russians used the road rather than a bottleneck tunnel which could turn into a disaster for the Russians if defended well.

And it does matter who broke the cease-fire. You have the Georgian pres. doing his "best" to accuse Russia of starting the festivities while it is clear to everyone else that they, the Georgians, ignited the fighting by "blitzkrieging" into S. Ossetia's capital. And it is obvious that this is a bit of a land-grab by both countries, but with Georgia starting the fighting, it's hard to say if they'll get any support short of political pressure put on Russia to back off from crushing Georgia and from Georgia from invading S. Ossetia again. In the end, if fighting DOES stop, then we might see a type of Kosovo evolve there if nothing else works as I don't see anyone wanting to ignite some sort of...world war threeish scenario.

[Banquo's Ghost]

It should be noted that Russia officially recognises Georgia's current borders and territorial integrity. The referenda in Abkhazia and South Ossetia that emboldened them to declare unilateral independence have not been recognised internationally. There is no legal framework for Russia's actions.

The high number of ethnic Russians in these regions is a mere fig leaf for imperialism. The Russians have thrown that one around to intimidate the Baltic States and Ukraine for years. Would we understand so readily if they had invaded Estonia over that incident with the war memorials? Are we keen to allow Kurdistan to win, through terrorism, her separation from Turkey and Iraq? Russian citizenship has been distributed like candy to ensure a nominal majority, and "peacekeepers" (oh joy, another euphemism for terrorists makes it into the dictionary) amply supplied with weaponry and resource.

These threats have been long standing, and occasionally emphasised with fly-overs and incursions. Georgia - a democratic nation, western facing - has lost patience. I'm not so sure they have made a mistake - the Russian military may be big, but it is largely demotivated conscripts with poor training and leadership. The last imperial expedition in Chechnya (also facilitated by some fancy provocation and theatrical "terror" attacks) still bleeds Russian youth dry and returns them drunk and violent to the streets of Petersburg and Moscow.

Imperialism should be opposed by the West, and I am pleased to see the reasonably stern responses so far. Russia is a dangerous beast fuelled by nationalism, and wars are the fodder for such creatures. The comparison with the Sudetenland is not much of a stretch.

And one should not forget that Krook has the essence of it - this is mainly about the pipeline, and its threat to Russian hegemony over supply to Europe.

[Sarmatian]

Pipeline doesn't threaten Russia that much. Two large markets for Russian natural gas and oil exist and a pipeline isn't such a big deal. The big deal is that Georgia wants to join NATO.

But funny how Russia, by virtue of name, becomes the bad guy in any situation. Anything else is irrelevant. If Russia is involved, no one will look up what's happening, who broke the ceasefire who attacked the peacekeeping force and so on.

Do a little word game and change the words Georgia, Ossetia and Russia with Serbia, Kosovo and NATO.

What would we get then - Serbia broke the ceasefire, attacked it's breakaway province of Kosovo and NATO peacekeepers. NATO would respond in that situation surely. Just wondering if the majority of people here would be so quick to say how imperialistic evil NATO attacks poor, little Serbia. Ah, well, can't be helped, can't be helped. Some people want to believe their own little myths and live in a world where good and bad depends solely on which side they are...

[Conradus]

Pipeline doesn't threaten Russia that much. Two large markets for Russian natural gas and oil exist and a pipeline isn't such a big deal. The big deal is that Georgia wants to join NATO.

But funny how Russia, by virtue of name, becomes the bad guy in any situation. Anything else is irrelevant. If Russia is involved, no one will look up what's happening, who broke the ceasefire who attacked the peacekeeping force and so on.

Doesn't NATO operate under UN-mandate in Kosovo now?
Whatever bad that Georgia did (breaking the ceasefire), there still is an unneccesary act of agression from Russia (those 'peacekeepers' had no right to be there in the first place and then entering Georgian soil -which they have recognized it to be- is an act of war. The exception of humanitarian action is non valid here.

[King Henry V]

To my mind the point of Southern Ossetia wanting to excersise its right to self-determination is at this point in time irrelevant. There are many small ethnic groups and wannabe countries around the world; another one doesn't really matter. However, what does matter is the growing power of the Russian bear, and its wish to become a dominant power once more in the world. The western powers should not concern themselves with the fact (and it probably is a fact) that one ethnic group is being oppressed by another in a corner of the world. What they should concern themselves with is the fact that Russia is flexing its muscles, taking small steps to show how far it can reach. This time it is in a rather insignificant (apart from the pipeline, another reason for Western interest) corner of the world. But next time, who knows? It might be a bit closer to home, and ever closer, unless Russia is stopped and its neo-imperialist policies nipped in the bud.


The solution? Well in my opinion the only thing that can and must be done is complete and unequivocal support of Georgia on the part of NATO. Despatch a fleet to the Black Sea (Turkey should be able to provide the bulk of the ships), send a NATO delegation to Tiblisi, heck, even emergency and immediate entrance of Georgia into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

Whatever the methods, Russia must be stopped.

[Tribesman]

Whatever the methods, Russia must be stopped.

Yeah , and as soon as someone in Europe says Putin is being a naughty boy Putin cuts the gas and asks them to rephrase their statement .

[FactionHeir]

Henry V: I think you might as well replace "Russia" with "USA" or "China" in your write up. Is the difference only that they aren't "Western" and therefore "not to be trusted"?