i've read that there's basically only one real road between russia and georgia and that is closed during the winter. the border is basically one huge mountain range so that should heavily favor the defensive. georgia obviously timed the escalation to coiincide with most of the world's leaders being in beijing, giving putin and world leaders less time to be able to respond immediately to the crisis. and it doesn't matter which side actually broke the ceasefire, the fact that georgian troops were able to converge on the south ossetian capital within hours of the ceasefire being broken, to me proves that that wasn't just by accident. operational plans like that don't get created on the fly.

so my interpretation is that georgia is looking for a lightning quick conquest of s. ossetia before winter. by the time russia actually mobilizes and is able to launch a real attack in the spring, georgia will be so fortified that it would make chechnya look like a walk in the park. it is very difficult for russia logistically to get to georgia with troops numbering in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and only forces of that magnitude would be enough to pacify georgia itself. not to mention, since georgia borders chechnya, they could threaten to destabilize that whole ball of wax again.

but i think saakashvilli (sp?) is playing with fire. let's say this whole thing has been engineered by russia, so what? the ossetians are not ethnically georgians, it only has one sizeable city, the population, resources and size of the region is miniscule, is this worth the price that georgia will have to pay in lives and millions of dollars to try and keep this place with very little guarantee of success? but nationalism can make people do irrational things sometimes.