Heavy Fighting in South Ossetia

[FactionHeir]

Henry V: I think you might as well replace "Russia" with "USA" or "China" in your write up. Is the difference only that they aren't "Western" and therefore "not to be trusted"?

[King Henry V]

Yes, you're probably right. However, I don't really believe in principles, or which country is right and which country is wrong. What I do believe in, though, is the continuation of Western hegemony in the world.

Yeah , and as soon as someone in Europe says Putin is being a naughty boy Putin cuts the gas and asks them to rephrase their statement .

Which is why the continued construction of the pipeline through the Caucusus is of vital importance, though I suppose is fortunate it isn't built yet, as it would be a tempting target. "What, you mean that long metal thing our planes blew up was the pipeline? We thought it was an extra-long machine gun!"

That and the importance of developing fossil-fuel alternatives so that we don't have to worry about every aspiring Evil Dictator of the World.

[Conradus]

Pipeline doesn't threaten Russia that much. Two large markets for Russian natural gas and oil exist and a pipeline isn't such a big deal. The big deal is that Georgia wants to join NATO.

But funny how Russia, by virtue of name, becomes the bad guy in any situation. Anything else is irrelevant. If Russia is involved, no one will look up what's happening, who broke the ceasefire who attacked the peacekeeping force and so on.

Doesn't NATO operate under UN-mandate in Kosovo now?
Whatever bad that Georgia did (breaking the ceasefire), there still is an unneccesary act of agression from Russia (those 'peacekeepers' had no right to be there in the first place and then entering Georgian soil -which they have recognized it to be- is an act of war. The exception of humanitarian action is non valid here.

[Ignoramus]

I'm really concerned about the growing monster which is Russia. They're quickly becoming dangerously nationalistic, which leads to imperialism.

Anyone who believes that the Russians are concerned about the freedom of the Ossetians has their head stuck in the sand. Russia cares about Russia, and not a fig about anyone else.

[KukriKhan]

So, a year from now, South Ossetia will either be a province of Russia, or a province of Georgia; the UN will have to admit it is no more than a money-sucking debate society vs a place where nations can peacefully sort out their differences, and the other former-soviet nations will rush to be covered by the umbrella of membership in NATO, lest they also be absored back into Moscow's grasp - unless, of course they prefer that. Rather than WW3, maybe we see the beginning of ColdWar2.

Meanwhile... I saw footage yesterday on the telly of Bush & Putin embracing in Peking. I wonder what our own (US) Russia-expert, Condo Rice, is doing right about now?

[Sarmatian]

Doesn't NATO operate under UN-mandate in Kosovo now?
Whatever bad that Georgia did (breaking the ceasefire), there still is an unneccesary act of agression from Russia (those 'peacekeepers' had no right to be there in the first place and then entering Georgian soil -which they have recognized it to be- is an act of war. The exception of humanitarian action is non valid here.

Yes, they're there because the resolution 1244 of the UN. Now that very same resolution explicitly states that Kosovo is a part of Serbia. So, because of the very mandate that put them there, they should have stopped Kosovo unilateral declaration of independence.

We can nitpick and try to find differences but in general situation is the same. NATO itself gave Russia an example to follow and now they're "surprised" when Russia in fact followed up on that example. With Kosovo Pandora's box was opened and no one should be surprised that something like this is happening.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I'm really concerned about the growing monster which is Russia. They're quickly becoming dangerously nationalistic, which leads to imperialism.

Anyone who believes that the Russians are concerned about the freedom of the Ossetians has their head stuck in the sand. Russia cares about Russia, and not a fig about anyone else.

Having studied Russian politics this year, I've come to the same conclusion.

And this ties in with my 'Nationalism makes peace' thread. Russia has systematically supported violence between Ossetian clans in order to launch an expansionist invasion, using 'peacekeeping' troops originally to make Georgia appear as the aggressor.

Nationalism alongside authoritarian right-wing governments is always a scary combination...

[Conradus]

Yes, they're there because the resolution 1244 of the UN. Now that very same resolution explicitly states that Kosovo is a part of Serbia. So, because of the very mandate that put them there, they should have stopped Kosovo unilateral declaration of independence.

We can nitpick and try to find differences but in general situation is the same. NATO itself gave Russia an example to follow and now they're "surprised" when Russia in fact followed up on that example. With Kosovo Pandora's box was opened and no one should be surprised that something like this is happening.

I find the legality of a UN authorisation a little more than nitpicking. And again the difference should be made between allowing a group of people their independence and they being annexed into another country, when said country recognizes them as being part of another country.

Georgia's clearly in the wrong by breaking the cease-fire, but Russia's doesn't have a nice record either by declaring war on it's neighbour and already having troops there illegally.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Well a Georgian APC was destroyed and that is what triggered things.

Russian troops have no right to be there in the first place if they recognise the area as Georgian territory. So they were 'peacekeeping' by fuelling clan violence through supplying arms?

[Marshal Murat]

Telegraph with war footage

A clip of rocket firing, and a fair summation of events thus far.

[Sarmatian]

I find the legality of a UN authorisation a little more than nitpicking. And again the difference should be made between allowing a group of people their independence and they being annexed into another country, when said country recognizes them as being part of another country.

Georgia's clearly in the wrong by breaking the cease-fire, but Russia's doesn't have a nice record either by declaring war on it's neighbour and already having troops there illegally.

First of all, every UN mission in general has to respect UN Charter. NATO troops there were stationed to keep the peace and to enforce resolution 1244. They broke it when they didn't stop Kosovo authorities from declaring independence. So - no, they aren't there legally anymore. Legally, Serbia has absolute right to reassert its control of Kosovo since those who were initially charged with enforcing resolution 1244 and keeping the peace failed to do so.

In case of Georgia, Russia moved in to protect its citizens and peacekeepers, not to annex to Georgia, and I seriously doubt that's gonna happen. If Georgia continues to attack Ossetians and Russian soldiers it may temporarily take control of Georgia but it won't annex Georgia. They've learned from the Soviet Union days that that is a waste of resources and manpower. US model for that sort of things is much more efficient.

[CrossLOPER]

NATO is not seen as the only problem. If Ossetia is taken by Georgia, there are fears of genocide, or at least general instability. If this occurs, the entire area might go the way of Chechnya and cause total chaos. That is the primary concern of the Russian Government in the region.

Saakashvili, who won his election along with the promise that he will "win back" breakaway regions, started this mess, on the day the Olympics start no less, because he feels the West will back him through any move he makes, despite the fact he has a controlling government that sends riot police after anti-government protesters, who on occasion end up in hospitals. Put yourself in one of those breakaway republics for a moment. Would you want to join a guy who bombs you into oblivion and will probably try to finish the job afterward, or a much more stable country that at present has tried to protect you and whose country pays the average worker four times as much?

I can't say with a straight face that Russia is 100% in the wrong here.

[Oleander Ardens]

First of all the situation is very murky. Hard to say who started this little war, Southossetian seperatists with or without Russian backing to provocate Georgia or Georgia who wanted to take what is legally theirs. The overall strategies are however much clearer.

Russia wants to keep the remaining ex-soviet brotherstates under tight control and has been openly supporting the seperatists ever more heavily for years now, using them as stawmen to threaten the democratic Georgia. His pro-european president is seen as a thorn in their side. Both regions supported by Russia had been offered a large autonomy, but the refused it thanks to Russia. The big difference between Kosovo and SOssetia is that Georgia didn't start an ethnic cleansing while Serbia did so. So Georgia is both morally and legally entitled to take what is theirs, even with military force if necessary.

As a matter of fact Russia is now an open and clear agressor with an imperalistic agenda, a bit similar to the USA and the UdSSR in various phases of their history.

[Marshal Murat]

Even the charge of ethnic cleaning is very hazy in this situation. While Russia has accused Georgia of ethnic cleansing of the Ossetian populace, the actuality and veracity of those claims cannot be established in this current situation.

Russian Bombers strike pipeline
Georgia Proposes Ceasefire

[Incongruous]

Yeah , and as soon as someone in Europe says Putin is being a naughty boy Putin cuts the gas and asks them to rephrase their statement .

Pretty much...
We could of coarse bring out the candles and horses!

This will undoubtedly be viewed a major defeat for the West I reckon. We can do bugger all to send that ex-commie git back to his hole..
Putin! Russians!

[Adrian II]

This will undoubtedly be viewed a major defeat for the West I reckon. We can do bugger all to send that ex-commie git back to his hole..

That about sums it up. Which means that someone in power willl have to do something extraordinary over the coming days and weeks: come up with a solution.

As The Guardian says in its background piece today: "The root of the problem is that the world community cannot agree on rules for the independence of small regions." So this particular someone will actually have to use his brains and get a grip on the issue, without being able to hide behind slogans and declarations of principle. That's a hard one. Who has the brains and guts it takes?

[Viking]

NATO is not seen as the only problem. If Ossetia is taken by Georgia, there are fears of genocide, or at least general instability. If this occurs, the entire area might go the way of Chechnya and cause total chaos. That is the primary concern of the Russian Government in the region.

Saakashvili, who won his election along with the promise that he will "win back" breakaway regions, started this mess, on the day the Olympics start no less, because he feels the West will back him through any move he makes, despite the fact he has a controlling government that sends riot police after anti-government protesters, who on occasion end up in hospitals. Put yourself in one of those breakaway republics for a moment. Would you want to join a guy who bombs you into oblivion and will probably try to finish the job afterward, or a much more stable country that at present has tried to protect you and whose country pays the average worker four times as much?

I can't say with a straight face that Russia is 100% in the wrong here.

Let's just call them both mad as nutters.

Nationalism alongside authoritarian right-wing governments is always a scary combination...

Forgotten the acts of Mao's China and the Soviet Union, have we?

[ICantSpellDawg]

NATO troops should be on Georgia's Black Sea shores by now. Russia is attacking Georgian pipelines, Georgian civilian cities, Military bases around the capital, all of which should alert everyone as to their true motivations.

[Adrian II]

NATO troops should be on Georgia's Black Sea shores by now. Russia is attacking Georgian pipelines, Georgian civilian cities, Military bases around the capital, all of which should alert everyone as to their true motivations.

Yes, it's called surgical bombing, shock and awe, infrastructure deterioration, etcetera - you probably know the concept.

Countries do that to each other from time to time. It's called war. No need to go hysterical and turn it into a world war.

Russia will want de facto control over some of the break-away regions and I think they should have it. As far as I can tell Georgia unleashed the military phase of the crisis and it will have to eat some dust before it accepts the changed reality. Russia will also want to increase its control over the Caucasus because it is an energy transport hub. The Georgians should have thought of that before.

Of course we all wish for a different gentleman to rule the Kremlin, but for the time being let's leave that issue to the Russians, shall we?

[Sarmatian]

The big difference between Kosovo and SOssetia is that Georgia didn't start an ethnic cleansing while Serbia did so.

No. Prior to bombing campaign, there was around 2000 casualties after two years of conflict between the police and KLA. Those 2000 includes KLA, Serbian police officers, and both Albanian and Serbian civilians and last two groupes make the smaller part of those 2000 casualties.

So, either those hundreds of thousands Albanian civilians that were mass executed on football stadiums came back to life or there were no ethnic cleansing.

[Conqueror]

Russian motivations here seem obvious enough, but I fail to understand the Georgian government's decisions. Why would they want this war? Even if they'd somehow manage to annex South Ossetia they'd be fighting not only the ruskies but also local guerilla resistance, in a mountaineous land with a hostile population. And with slim chances of actual direct intervention by NATO. It seems like an enormous gamble to me.

What could they possibly hope to gain, even in best case scenario? A little stretch of land added to their's on the world map? Some extra length on the national penis? It boggles the mind

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Anyone who believes that the Russians are concerned about the freedom of the Ossetians has their head stuck in the sand. Russia cares about Russia, and not a fig about anyone else.

Of course Russia has interests in the region, but the important part is that the Ossetians want Russia, the Ossetians are interested in Russia. They had a choice between Georgia or Russia, and they wanted Russia. That being said, there are also North Ossetians within Russia who may or may not have a voice on this issue in Russian politics.

[King Henry V]

Russian motivations here seem obvious enough, but I fail to understand the Georgian government's decisions. Why would they want this war? Even if they'd somehow manage to annex South Ossetia they'd be fighting not only the ruskies but also local guerilla resistance, in a mountaineous land with a hostile population. And with slim chances of actual direct intervention by NATO. It seems like an enormous gamble to me.

What could they possibly hope to gain, even in best case scenario? A little stretch of land added to their's on the world map? Some extra length on the national penis? It boggles the mind

I think you'll find that the little stretch of territory is already theirs on the world map.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Of course Russia has interests in the region, but the important part is that the Ossetians want Russia, the Ossetians are interested in Russia. They had a choice between Georgia or Russia, and they wanted Russia.

I think its more of a case of the warring Ossetian clan leaders having a choice between buying weapons at home or from Russia, and Russia made sure that it was the first choice for most of them.

[Kralizec]

Of course Russia has interests in the region, but the important part is that the Ossetians want Russia, the Ossetians are interested in Russia. They had a choice between Georgia or Russia, and they wanted Russia. That being said, there are also North Ossetians within Russia who may or may not have a voice on this issue in Russian politics.

Do you apply the same belief in self-determination to Tibet, Chechnya, the Kurds and [insert various seperatists across the globe here]?

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Do you apply the same belief in self-determination to Tibet, Chechnya, the Kurds and [insert various seperatists across the globe here]?

It depends on the individual nation and the nation wanting independance. I also have a touch of the "to the strongest" syndrome.

[Kralizec]

Can you name any other seperatist group that you support, but wich hasn't succeeded yet?

[CrossLOPER]

Russian motivations here seem obvious enough, but I fail to understand the Georgian government's decisions. Why would they want this war? Even if they'd somehow manage to annex South Ossetia they'd be fighting not only the ruskies but also local guerilla resistance, in a mountaineous land with a hostile population. And with slim chances of actual direct intervention by NATO. It seems like an enormous gamble to me.

What could they possibly hope to gain, even in best case scenario? A little stretch of land added to their's on the world map? Some extra length on the national penis? It boggles the mind

Saakashvili won the Nationalist ticket by stating that he will take back breakaway regions. He is utterly convinced that the West will back him no matter his motivations. He is unable to improve the conditions in his country, so he decided to play "military tough guy". The problem is is that no one in the Caucasus likes Georgia and would much rather side with Russia, or anyone who isn't connected to Georgia. This includes Chechens.

As for the ceasefire, well... It's kind of hard to trust someone calling for a ceasefire while they are shelling you.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Can you name any other seperatist group that you support, but wich hasn't succeeded yet?

I'm apathetic to most seperatist groups. I support Abkhazia and South Ossetia to a certain extent, mainly because of Georgia's current techniques in trying to suppress them, as well as supporting the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. I support the seperation of Kosovo, albiet with caution. I would probably support Tuvan seperatism as well as the Don and Kuban Hosts. Naturally, I support any nation wanting to get out of (gain independance from) the European Union.

I also support Alsatian independance from France.

The only seperatist movements I would consider myself actively opposed to are the Bavarian and Quebec seperatist movements, of which the Quebec movement is considerably more serious.

[KarlXII]

Why not Quebec or Bavaria? Aren't they entitled to independance as much as the Alsatians or the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic?