Revolt/Revolution in Egypt

[gaelic cowboy]

I don't understand why everyone is comparing the situation to Iran. The Twelver Shi'ite concept of the Islamic state is completely different from the Sunni concept of the Islamic state. Not to mention the fact that the very concept of an Islamic state was something unheard of in the Shi'ite world since the fall of the Fatimid dynasty.

I suppose it boils down to the fact some people are worried that only the MB are organised enough to really enact "There" ideas, but then you know that already. If El Baradei can place himself at the forefront of the protests then he will be well placed to be the figurehead of the changeover, that would give him a good chance at election later, I don't think anyone doubts he is a decent person.

The ultimate arbiter is as we all know is the army if they could do a deal then Mubarak is toast.

[Fragony]

It isn't necessarily a bad thing if the brotherhood gets a slice of the pie, as Egypt changes so must they. They are dangerous but only in the west and only because of islamphiles, they are no longer violent they have sworn that of decades ago. Might be of use as an ideological buffer.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Interestingly, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been caught completely unawares by the unfolding of events. While they are a subset of the protests, I was listening to a senior MB spokesman on al-Jazeera saying that the intentions of the people are much, much bigger than the interests of 1 party.

As someone who is part of movements organized by my own religion, I am somewhat less hostile to the idea of religious ideologies influencing political action. As someone who is also not entirely politically directed by my religion, I recognize the viability of that dichotomy in the mind of sensible people. I have, so far, not heard anything unsensible from the Muslim Brotherhood or Egyptians looking for Freedom. I am impressed by this movement and I beleive that we need to welcome Egyptians into the community of the free with open arms.

[Fisherking]

No, my point is that movements are relative based on their location in time and place. The basic and transcendental ideals, however, are more or less the same. There were people who pushed for equal rights for women and slaves in both the American and French revolutions, but it wasn't implemented for many, many years.

equal rights under the law is sort of the key to any government we would like to see, past or present.



I had half expected you to site Brehon Law, as it did represent all classes but they were not seen as equal and each had their place.

Besides, it was little known out side Ireland and stamped out.

[Fragony]

Interestingly, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been caught completely unawares by the unfolding of events. While they are a subset of the protests, I was listening to a senior MB spokesman on al-Jazeera saying that the intentions of the people are much, much bigger than the interests of 1 party.

As someone who is part of movements organized by my own religion, I am somewhat less hostile to the idea of religious ideologies influencing political action. As someone who is also not entirely politically directed by my religion, I recognize the viability of that dichotomy in the mind of sensible people. I have, so far, not heard anything unsensible from the Muslim Brotherhood or Egyptians looking for Freedom. I am impressed by this movement and I beleive that we need to welcome Egyptians into the community of the free with open arms.

Couldn't agree more.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Well, it wasn't directed at you, but at Brenus. I'm just wondering why everyone is getting incredibly nervous about a potential (moderate) Islamist-leaning government.

Theocracy is incompatible with democracy, yes.

The problem with the Arab world has been that the alternative to the authoritarian regimes has been Islamofascism. As far as I'm concerned, that is comparable with the fight between stalinism and fascism which tore Europe apart last century. They may consider themselves each other's mortal enemy, the sole alternative to each other. But from where I'm sitting, both are two cheeks of the same arse.
If this were between Mubarak and the Muslim brotherhood, I'd side with Mubarak. Easily.

But I don't think it is. This is not between backwards authoritarian regimes and a retarded religion, but about Arabs claiming their rightful place under the sun. Their claiming dignity and respect.

For the first time in a generation, it is not religion, nor the adventures of a single leader, nor wars with Israel that have energized the region. Across Egypt and the Middle East, a somewhat nostalgic notion of a common Arab identity, intersecting with a visceral sense of what amounts to a decent life, is driving protests that have bound the region in a sense of a shared destiny.

“The experience of Tunisia will remain the guiding light for Egypt and may be so for people in Yemen, Sudan and the rest of the Arab world looking for change, with a readiness to accept risk, especially given that even the worst possibilities are better than the status quo,” Talal Salman, the editor of Al Safir, wrote on Friday.

A chant in Egypt put it more bluntly, playing on the longstanding chants of Islamists that “Islam is the solution.” “Tunisia,” they shouted, “is the solution.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/wo...html?ref=world

[Cute Wolf]

lower tax, give em governor with high chivalry, and build hapiness related facilities, if that doesn't work, let tax very high, withdrew garrison, and let em revolt, retake the city and exterminate the rebellious populance...

God, if the world is M2TW, how easy the solution was...

[gaelic cowboy]

Clever move there by Muburak he has now made the army and himself one and the same through appointing the former Air Force guy as VP. Plus I am reading reports that are stating that the border between Gaza and Eygpt is unguarded and Hamas gumen have came across to prob link up with MB.

Again another clever move by Mubarak if true, cos if Hamas did link up with MB the west would effectively shun the protest movement (or at least the governments would)

[Lemur]

Worthwhile read: Four Reasons Why Egypt's Revolution Is Not Islamic

1) The political Islamism that ended up triumphing in Iran was a much more authoritarian interpretation of Islam. It specifically embraced political power and preached a narrative of resistance, though its victory in Iran paradoxically ended any chance of victory elsewhere. That’s because when elites and other, non-religious ideological forces in neighboring Muslim countries saw the purges of prior elites taking place in Iran, they immediately became skeptical of working alongside Islamists in their own country.

Islamic challenges to regimes in Tajikistan, Algeria and Tunisia, among others, were violently supressed even though they pursued their goals democratically. Most Islamists learned from this brutal experience and grew from it; Egypt’s most powerful Muslim group, the Muslim Brotherhood, was one such group. It’s probably safe to say that Iran was the only victory for this style of Islamism, and now, some 30-plus years later, its moment has largely passed. The geopolitical, economic and social reasons for its emergence have disappeared.

2) Iran’s Islamist opposition to the Shah was shaped by the peculiarities of Shi’a Islam and Iranian history. Shi’as have a more organized and powerful clergy than Sunnis, and Iran’s clergy, unlike Egypt’s, were much more independent of the state. In Egypt today, among the main trends in Islamic practice are a quietist Salafism, which seeks a rigorous but non-political personal morality, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

And while the Brotherhood is an incredibly large and powerful organization, it is today a product of years of suppression, torture, and intimidation. While it seeks to change society, it does not pursue an explicitly political agenda. Rather, it believes that an ideal politics will be achieved once society is Islamized—in other words, enough introduction of Muslim values into popular culture, and society will simply reform itself—and that includes the state. So while they have political ideals, they certainly don’t have an explicit political program.

That said, it’s no surprise that the Brotherhood weren’t out ahead in the recent protests: They’ve largely eschewed street politics (it ends with their members electrocuted in jails). It’s also worth considering, although this is still conjectural, whether the Brotherhood declined to play a more public role even after they caught up to events on the street precisely because they know a more prominent role for themselves could draw negative attention. I’m sure the Brotherhood knows that Mubarak would love to have Islamists to blame for the uprising. It would make our government support for his crackdown that much easier to obtain.

3) People who study Iran know how vexed the relationship is, and has been, between Persian cultural identity and Islam. While many Iranians before the revolution were religious in a non-political way, the country’s elite tended to see Islam and Persianness as mutually incompatible. On the other hand, Egypt is a proudly Arab society (hint: the Arab Republic of Egypt) which has never seen Islam as incompatible with their specific ethnic and national project.

Arabness and Islam are hard to pull apart, such that the late Michel Aflaq, the founder of the Arab nationalist Ba’ath Party—he was a Christian—praised Islam as an achievement of the Arab cultural genius. (Many Muslims wouldn’t take too kindly to such a reading, but there you have it.) That difference in dynamics between Egypt and Iran needs to be stressed.

While Iran’s Shah campaigned against Islam and sought to erase its role in Persian history and culture, Mubarak never attacked Islam with anywhere near the same vehemence. He’s far more concerned with preserving power for himself than he is with rewriting Egyptian history (unfortunately for his prospects of remaining in power, he’s concerned with himself—and not even for Egypt’s advancement, unlike other Third World dictatorships, which do emphasize and achieve real economic growth). And this brings us to the most important point…

4) Egypt’s revolution doesn’t have to be Islamic because Islam isn’t at the heart of the problem on the ground. In fact, the non-political Egyptian Islam of the last few decades has succeeded in deeply Islamizing Egyptian culture, making Muslim piety interwoven with the everyday rhythms of Egyptian life. We saw this in the protests after the Friday prayers today, in the spontaneous congregational prayers that took place in the heat of demonstrations—and we can see it in the number of Egyptian women who veil (though many don’t and still strongly identify with Islam, whether culturally or religiously, personally or publicly).

Egypt’s society is a deeply Muslim one, and the very success of this non-political religious project has negated the need for a confrontational Islam. Egyptians know their religious identity is not under threat. ElBaradei, for example, joined in Friday prayers today before going out into the streets. Whether Egyptians identify with political Islam or secular democracy, their Arabness and Islam tend to be mutually supportive, and certainly not incompatible.

Where there is a danger, as I wrote yesterday, is that if the United States does not come out explicitly in favor of the people, subsequent events will become more confrontational, and may even see the introduction of a more cultural and civilizational rhetoric. The Shah monopolized power and sought to erase a culture. Mubarak, for all his brutality, has had no such grandiose presumption.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I'm waiting for the word that they've pulled Mubarak into the street and hung him. That is what his decision to stay in power means.

[Hax]

I've been watching al-Jazeera (yeah..) basically non-stop, and there are unconfirmed rumours (which...makes them rumours, actually) that there was gunfire near Mubarak's government.

[tibilicus]

A very interesting development. This could either fizzle out and make very little impact or then again this could be the most significant event since the fall of the wall. If Egypt goes, then the pressure on other nations will mount. The big one of course being Saudi Arabia.

[Greyblades]

Thats an interesting thought: the last absolute monarchy might be close to revolution.

[gaelic cowboy]

Ah ha what did I say earlier he still has a few tricks up his sleeve yet Mr Mubarak, pulling the police back was clever indeed, at first I thought they were refusing to help in the oppression but now I think it was an attempt to let law and order breakdown so the people demand order.

[Idaho]

lower tax, give em governor with high chivalry, and build hapiness related facilities, if that doesn't work, let tax very high, withdrew garrison, and let em revolt, retake the city and exterminate the rebellious populance...

God, if the world is M2TW, how easy the solution was...

You sound like you work for the CIA - that's about their level

[edyzmedieval]

You sound like you work for the CIA - that's about their level

Epic.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I support any and all revolutions against tyrannical dictatorships. Even if the revolution gives a result no different to the status quo, it still provides a testament to the fact that ultimately the people are in charge of their destiny and that institutions of power are in fact artificial constructions that can dismantled at any time. Tyrants don't wait to see if a neighboring revolution succeeds or fails before he starts to worry, there is a reason why they **** themselves the moment they see freedom being chanted across the border.

[kambiz]

I hope Egyptians learn of what happened in Iran in 1979 and avoid any Idiologic and especially Religious Regime for their future ,Otherwise they would be regretful of what they're doing now. I hope Egyptians are inspired by what we tried in Iran last year ,Though we failed :(

[Fisherking]

I hope Egyptians learn of what happened in Iran in 1979 and avoid any Idiologic and especially Religious Regime for their future ,Otherwise they would be regretful of what they're doing now. I hope Egyptians are inspired by what we tried in Iran last year ,Though we failed :(

Truly!

Throwing off one yoke only to put on another is a real danger in any Revolution.

It is a dangerous but brave undertaking. But then it is usually taken out of desperation.

[Fragony]

I hope Egyptians learn of what happened in Iran in 1979 and avoid any Idiologic and especially Religious Regime for their future ,Otherwise they would be regretful of what they're doing now. I hope Egyptians are inspired by what we tried in Iran last year ,Though we failed :(

Hats of to you Iranians, what a pity it failed. Massive respect for you guys and especially girls

[TinCow]

I am rooting for the Egyptians every day; haven't been able to turn off the news since it began. As for my personal opinion on the situation, I couldn't express it any better than TuffStuff did. You can chalk me up as a +1 to his comments.

[Noncommunist]

Now China has blocked Egypt from their internet to prevent their own citizens from getting any ideas.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/...sts-on-the-web

[Lemur]

Now Sudan. It seems that once people get the notion into their head that they can change their government, the meme is contagious. Let's hope we see this spread even further. Whatever the outcome, it will be better in the long run.

[Fisherking]

Now Sudan. It seems that once people get the notion into their head that they can change their government, the meme is contagious. Let's hope we see this spread even further. Whatever the outcome, it will be better in the long run.

I agree and internet access is

[rory_20_uk]

Now Sudan. It seems that once people get the notion into their head that they can change their government, the meme is contagious. Let's hope we see this spread even further. Whatever the outcome, it will be better in the long run.

Unless the wrong people try to gain independence. No one in the EU is allowed (or parts of any country in the EU), of course. Nor in the USA. Nor in Turkey / Iraq. Nor in China...

So, unimportant parts of weak states are allowed self-determination, which is great. Parts of stronger states of course aren't as that's different.

[Lemur]

Unless the wrong people try to gain independence. No one in the EU is allowed (or parts of any country in the EU), of course. Nor in the USA.

If Rhode Island wants idependence, they can bloody well have it.

[Fisherking]

If Rhode Island wants idependence, they can bloody well have it.

No they can’t!

Remember the American Civil War 1861 to 1865?

The Supreme Court ruling that said you could join but never leave? (kind of like checking in at the Hotel California)

We are stuck with them! And yes you can blame it on Republicans!

[Noncommunist]

Unless the wrong people try to gain independence. No one in the EU is allowed (or parts of any country in the EU), of course. Nor in the USA. Nor in Turkey / Iraq. Nor in China...

So, unimportant parts of weak states are allowed self-determination, which is great. Parts of stronger states of course aren't as that's different.

Well, places like the US, EU, Turkey, and some others do have self determination. At least in the US, we exercise it every year and on somewhat longer intervals for some officials.

[rory_20_uk]

Yes, choose one from a defined list of candidates for defined positions... Some would call that the appearance of self determination.

[ICantSpellDawg]

‎"As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment and violence ready for export."

Perfect