US gubmint shutdown + default + subprime sequel?

[Lemur]

I find this article ignorant and annoying.

Annoying I can see. Ignorant? The Tea Party has members in every state, but there's a definite regional flavor to the movement, as demonstrated by the makeup of the Tea Party Caucus. The author ain't wrong about that. And he's absolutely correct that when the South doesn't get its way, it has a longstanding history of starting fights.

None of which is to say that I agree with the article, but it's a worthwhile read.

[PanzerJaeger]

Annoying I can see. Ignorant?

More like disingenuous. To try and inject regionalism into the debt debate reflects both an understanding of history and a willingness to distort it to make a contrived point.

Obviously Tea Party types were more likely to actually win elections in districts that were solidly Republican from the outset, as all they had to do was win primaries - which requires more enthusiasm but fewer votes. The fact that a majority were elected from the solid South reflects the dominance of the Republican party more than any special enthusiasm for the Tea Party. The same phenomenon can be seen in the Northeast where extremely liberal lawmakers often represent conservative, working class districts. Voting (D) is so engrained in the culture - usually because of past or present union activity - that all a liberal has to do to win is win the primary.

The Tea Party is based far more in Southwestern libertarianism than traditional Southern conservatism, which is more concerned with social rather than fiscal issues. The fact that Tea Party candidates were able to win elections more easily in the South doesn't actually demonstrate a stronger concentration of support, but a stronger Republican establishment. Nationally, about 40% of voters in the 2010 elections nominally supported to the movement, and the intensity of that support had no real regional correlation.

Definitely an interesting read though. It's never a bad thing to look at a situation from a completely different perspective.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Although there were no revenue increases this time, we are crazy if we think that the bush tax cuts aren't going to get the chopping block and be replaced by a new tax cut plan sponsored by the Obama admin. They know that puppy is a gonner, and that's why democrats are relatively content to let these cuts in.

[Lemur]

Nationally, about 40% of voters in the 2010 elections nominally supported to the movement, and the intensity of that support had no real regional correlation.

Not to quibble, but 40% is way outside every poll I've seen on the subject. Most polls peg Tea Party support at somewhere around 14%-13% of the electorate. Moreover, the poll that that blog links to doesn't back up the assertion. Kinda strange.

[PanzerJaeger]

Not to quibble, but 40% is way outside every poll I've seen on the subject. Most polls peg Tea Party support at somewhere around 14%-13% of the electorate. Moreover, the poll that that blog links to doesn't back up the assertion. Kinda strange.

Support, favorability, or membership? The three are different, but often get confused. Support and favorability have always outstripped membership by quite a bit. Favorability maxed out at 39% in Gallup and, iirc, got a bit over 40% in some other polls at the height of the movement's positive intensity during the run up to the 2010 elections.

Good catch. The author of the blog probably used support and favorability interchangeably. Actual support was more like 30% instead of 40%.

[Papewaio]

I thought in the US only 40% of the electorate vote.

If the Tea Party is 13-14% of the electorate and they all vote, then they would form around 35% of the voters. (.14/.4)

[Centurion1]

I thought in the US only 40% of the electorate vote.

If the Tea Party is 13-14% of the electorate and they all vote, then they would form around 35% of the voters. (.14/.4)

40% of the voters.

[Tellos Athenaios]

40% of the voters.

Yes, let me get this straight: 40% of the voters, you say. Who supposedly are only 40% of the electorate, according to Papewaio. So the means 0.4*0.4 == 0.16, i.e 16% of the electorate, no?

[Lemur]

Well, the polling I've seen consistently pegs Tea Party self-identification at between 14% and 13% of the voting electorate. So make of that number what you will.

[Subotan]

The Tea Party is based far more in Southwestern libertarianism than traditional Southern conservatism, which is more concerned with social rather than fiscal issues.

Really? Then why are Republican state legislators working like Japanese beavers across the country to restrict abortion rights across America? Why is Michelle Bachmann, darling of the Tea Party "Movement", so concerned with homosexuals? Why did the Tea Party mobilise to protest the "Ground Zero Mosque", the mosque-that-wasn't several blocks from the WTC site? Leaving aside particular criticisms of these various positions, it's disingenous to claim that the Tea Party is primarily a fiscally conservative movement; after all, why did they want to their legislators to take action that would have caused America's interest on its debt to skyrocket if they were fiscally conservative?

The fact that Tea Party candidates were able to win elections more easily in the South doesn't actually demonstrate a stronger concentration of support, but a stronger Republican establishment.

I thought the Tea Party was anti-GOP establishment.

[Furunculus]

with all this whingeing about tax cuts and america being undertaxted i feel it is time to introduce a little adam smith:

http://adamsmith.org/files/tax-paper-final(1).pdf

[Ronin]

Really? Then why are Republican state legislators working like Japanese beavers across the country to restrict abortion rights across America? Why is Michelle Bachmann, darling of the Tea Party "Movement", so concerned with homosexuals? Why did the Tea Party mobilise to protest the "Ground Zero Mosque", the mosque-that-wasn't several blocks from the WTC site? Leaving aside particular criticisms of these various positions, it's disingenous to claim that the Tea Party is primarily a fiscally conservative movement; after all, why did they want to their legislators to take action that would have caused America's interest on its debt to skyrocket if they were fiscally conservative?

it always seemed to me that the tea party is a movement primarily fueled by conservative views on social issues (abortion, gays), a serious racial bias against the current president and also fiscal concerns.
Of course the first 2 reasons are not particularly politically correct in this day and age, so the people that are taking charge of the movement pushed the fiscal aspect of it forward.
Of course there are people in the movement motivated only by fiscal issues and nothing else, but the type of rhetoric that is used to inflame the majority of the tea party base is pretty transparent regarding its bias on social issues.
In other words....the pundits might be talking about fiscal matters, the crowd is not necessarily there for that.

[Centurion1]

it always seemed to me that the tea party is a movement primarily fueled by conservative views on social issues (abortion, gays), a serious racial bias against the current president and also fiscal concerns.
Of course the first 2 reasons are not particularly politically correct in this day and age, so the people that are taking charge of the movement pushed the fiscal aspect of it forward.
Of course there are people in the movement motivated only by fiscal issues and nothing else, but the type of rhetoric that is used to inflame the majority of the tea party base is pretty transparent regarding its bias on social issues.
In other words....the pundits might be talking about fiscal matters, the crowd is not necessarily there for that.

Hey you guys Ronin is right. If someone is of African descent and you disagree with his politic then you are a racist. Disagreeing with Obama is equivalent to being one step away from being Imperial Grand Wizard in your local KKK chapter.

And btw, having a conservative view on Abortion is not politically incorrect except maybe whatever world you inhabit.

[Koga No Goshi]

Hey you guys Ronin is right. If someone is of African descent and you disagree with his politic then you are a racist. Disagreeing with Obama is equivalent to being one step away from being Imperial Grand Wizard in your local KKK chapter.

And btw, having a conservative view on Abortion is not politically incorrect except maybe whatever world you inhabit.

You're using some thick blinders if you think the Tea Party movement almost turning into lynch mobs at its large gatherings and yelling racist epithets is merely "disagreeing with a black man's politics."

[Subotan]

And btw, having a conservative view on Abortion is not politically incorrect except maybe whatever world you inhabit.

Of course not. The issue arises when those views are forced onto other individuals.

[Ronin]

Hey you guys Ronin is right. If someone is of African descent and you disagree with his politic then you are a racist. Disagreeing with Obama is equivalent to being one step away from being Imperial Grand Wizard in your local KKK chapter.

when an entire mainly white and right wing political movement shows up almost overnight, and it just happens to coincide with the rise of a part-black presidential candidate....excuse me if I can add 1+1 together.
also disagreeing with politics is one thing....to do so by implying that the other guy is not really an American but a Kenyan, or a secret Muslim is a completely different beast.
But I must be mistaken...I saw plenty of coverage on tea party rallies and they are clearly not racist....all those signs must have been a terrible mistake.


P.S. - and if the Imperial Grand Wizard of the local KKK chapter is marching down the street with his face uncovered he is at the very least being honest....that's an advantage over closet cases.
and P.S.2 - Isn´t the fact that in some of those places there exists a local chapter of the KKK telling enough?

[Koga No Goshi]

when an entire mainly white and right wing political movement shows up almost overnight, and it just happens to coincide with the rise of a part-black presidential candidate....excuse me if I can add 1+1 together.
also disagreeing with politics is one thing....to do so by implying that the other guy is not really an American but a Kenyan, or a secret Muslim is a completely different beast.
But I must be mistaken...I saw plenty of coverage on tea party rallies and they are clearly not racist....all those signs must have been a terrible mistake.


P.S. - and if the Imperial Grand Wizard of the local KKK chapter is marching down the street with his face uncovered he is at the very least being honest....that's an advantage over closet cases.
and P.S.2 - Isn´t the fact that in some of those places there exists a local chapter of the KKK telling enough?

Exactly. If you want opposition to a black President to be understood as political, then keep it political. 4 years of demanding birth certificates and claiming he's a white-hating Christian-Muslim-Socialist-Communist-Kenyan can only be understood one way.

[Centurion1]

when an entire mainly white and right wing political movement shows up almost overnight, and it just happens to coincide with the rise of a part-black presidential candidate....excuse me if I can add 1+1 together.
also disagreeing with politics is one thing....to do so by implying that the other guy is not really an American but a Kenyan, or a secret Muslim is a completely different beast.
But I must be mistaken...I saw plenty of coverage on tea party rallies and they are clearly not racist....all those signs must have been a terrible mistake.


P.S. - and if the Imperial Grand Wizard of the local KKK chapter is marching down the street with his face uncovered he is at the very least being honest....that's an advantage over closet cases.
and P.S.2 - Isn´t the fact that in some of those places there exists a local chapter of the KKK telling enough?

I almost forgot. There are KKK chapters in every place of the United States. Including places like Seattle, NYC, LA, etc.

So what exactly are you implying is telling?

Hey you know that BNP is located in Britain. I think that's telling about British people

(demonstrating absurdity of argument)

[Lemur]

[I]t's disingenous to claim that the Tea Party is primarily a fiscally conservative movement; after all, why did they want to their legislators to take action that would have caused America's interest on its debt to skyrocket if they were fiscally conservative?

Because the Tea Party is primarily an anti-tax movement, not a fiscal conservative movement. Important distinction. Also, I'll be very curious to see if the Tea Party continues with anything like its current energy when there's no longer a Dem in the White House. I suspect the answers is "no."

[PanzerJaeger]

Really? Then why are Republican state legislators working like Japanese beavers across the country to restrict abortion rights across America? Why is Michelle Bachmann, darling of the Tea Party "Movement", so concerned with homosexuals? Why did the Tea Party mobilise to protest the "Ground Zero Mosque", the mosque-that-wasn't several blocks from the WTC site?

Well, the Tea Party is not a single cohesive movement and it is not entirely clear whether Michelle Bachmann actually speaks for them, or has decided that she speaks for them. However, as I mentioned, the vast majority of Tea Party members were conservative republicans before the movement started, so there will naturally be overlap in their views on social issues. Also, as with most movements, many of the local groups have taken steps to cleanse their membership of some of the more socially liberal voices and have moved towards a more traditional, although radicalized, platform of social issues that span beyond the founding principles.

All that being said, the Tea Party did begin as an all-encompassing movement focused solely on government size and spending in reaction to the Stimulus bill, bailouts, Cap & Trade proposals, and the Affordable Care Act. Despite the movement into social policy by some of the groups, the overarching mission of the movement is still ostensibly focused on fiscal issues.

The Tea Party movement (TPM) is an American populist[1][2][3] political movement that is generally recognized as conservative and libertarian,[4][5] and has sponsored protests and supported political candidates since 2009.[6][7][8] It endorses reduced government spending,[9][10] opposition to taxation in varying degrees,[10] reduction of the national debt and federal budget deficit,[9] and adherence to an originalist interpretation of the United States Constitution.[11]

The name "Tea Party" is a reference to the Boston Tea Party, a protest by colonists who objected to a British tax on tea in 1773 and demonstrated by dumping British tea taken from docked ships into the harbor.[12] Some commentators have referred to the Tea in "Tea Party" as the acronym "Taxed Enough Already".[13][14]

Leaving aside particular criticisms of these various positions, it's disingenous to claim that the Tea Party is primarily a fiscally conservative movement; after all, why did they want to their legislators to take action that would have caused America's interest on its debt to skyrocket if they were fiscally conservative?

Because, as Lemur's article highlighted, they are not particularly knowledgeable about the intricacies of fiscal policy. That does not mean that they are not very fiscally conservative. They simply have a limited understanding of the negative externalities involved in abruptly cutting spending in broad swathes.

I thought the Tea Party was anti-GOP establishment.

They are. Inter-party distinctions mean little in solid districts. Whoever makes it out of the primary gets elected as the opponent gets no consideration.

[Adrian II]

Annoying I can see. Ignorant? The Tea Party has members in every state, but there's a definite regional flavor to the movement, as demonstrated by the makeup of the Tea Party Caucus. The author ain't wrong about that. And he's absolutely correct that when the South doesn't get its way, it has a longstanding history of starting fights.

None of which is to say that I agree with the article, but it's a worthwhile read.

How about this then? Now there's an interesting break-down to complement yours.

Greek Americans

[drone]

How about this then? Now there's an interesting break-down to complement yours.

Greek Americans

I don't know what mess New Mexico has gotten itself into, but Virginia and Maryland/DC are high on that list because they host the federal government. The article using Virginia as it's prime example is questionable at best. Yes it does receive a disproportional amount of federal dollars... location, location, location.

[Vladimir]

Yea, they include Virginia and Maryland side-by-side. New Mexico and Arizona like to claim the cost of covering medical bills for illegals is a problem. There are also quite a few important military bases in New Mexico so they may be affected the same as Virginia and Maryland.