Anyone who thinks there's movement in the race is fooling themselves. The polling is still quite stable.
Despite what you might expect based on conventional wisdom, polling suggests that a tumultuous month has done little, if anything, to alter the contours of the race: Obama continues to hold a narrow but relatively consistent lead in polls of registered voters (RV), but Romney fares better in polls of likely voters (LV).
If you can see any clear trends, you should get your eyes checked. [...]
Why is the race so stable? For starters, the electorate is deeply polarized and there aren’t very many persuadable voters. Of course, many of those persuadable voters aren’t turned into the race. Most haven’t heard of Cory Booker, let alone care about his musings on Meet the Press. Obama’s comments about the state of the private sector may hurt him, but probably not until deployed aggressively by the Romney campaign.
The voters most likely to follow the intricacies of the race are also those most likely to have firmly made up their minds.
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