The margin is considerable in the College of Electors, but much closer across the board. Voting history over the last few elections make it obvious that some of the polls showing a nine or ten point margin for Obama in Ohio and Florida are skewed. However, it does seem likely that a smaller margin is breaking toward Obama and Obama does not need a 10% win to claim all of a given states electors, only half plus one of those voting.

I think the GOP is losing ground with much of the non-Cuban Latino vote. However, a 65-35 split against is far easier to work on than the 91-9 split among Americans of African descent. More important still is the split that favors Dems among women.

Reaching these groups is doable, moreover. Too much of the Dem side treats these blocs as large single issue blocs -- immigration and abortion respectively -- and a careful program that does NOT treat them as monoliths and works to show how the GOP message connects to the many varied values they hold can work.