Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Seamus Fermanagh]

If they want the right to overthrow a government through popular revolution, they can accept the responsibility of consequences that goes with it. The basic rule of a democracy is that, post-election, the country is left with the government that was elected, until the time comes for another election. If you decide that rule is unsatisfactory, then negotiations can take place for a substitute set of rules. During this interregnum, your neighbours may decide to have a hand in deciding the new set of rules. But you shouldn't have any complaint, as it was your choice to abandon those rules in the first place.

Completely agree. Geo Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Franklin et al were quite well aware of the personal price for a failed rebellion. You roll the iron dice, you take your chances.

[lars573]

So wait, now it's Poland to the rescue? They decided to have previously scheduled military exercises on their border with Ukraine.

[Papewaio]

USA may have called it a war on terror. Had dubious intelligence (both sorts) in going into Iraq and the public aren't happy right now because of a generational change in work forces is happening.

But the US economy is no where near broken. Bloated with corporate malfeasance, but not dead, and still has the lions share of economic clout. That economic clout can be seen in Google, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple. All leaders in high tech.

US has off shored a lot of its manufacturing. But certainly not all of it.

Also the standard of living hasn't exactly plummeted while paying for the war on terror. It isn't as if the US is on a war ration economy.

US is still only using a fraction of its firepower and because of poor planning assumed a 6 month turn around and employed contractors for a decade plus pair of quagmires.

So they could both do it more efficiently and with more money.

But if I was going in against Russia, I would look at getting China to apply trade sanctions. As it is China and Russia are more likely to say go away then play to NATOs demands.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Poland sees what appear to be Russian troops sans insignia in Crimea. As one of the very few nations that, arguably, has been invaded and chopped apart MORE than Russia, it is hard to see them just kicking back and waiting for the Spring planting. Since your army needs a bit of practice anyway...

[Shaka_Khan]

LOVE being ski instructor

There's a ski resort in Vietnam?

[Papewaio]

There's a ski resort in Vietnam?

The flags are which nations the ski instructor has worked overtime with.

[Gilrandir]

If they want the right to overthrow a government through popular revolution, they can accept the responsibility of consequences that goes with it. The basic rule of a democracy is that, post-election, the country is left with the government that was elected, until the time comes for another election. If you decide that rule is unsatisfactory, then negotiations can take place for a substitute set of rules.

It is all true until the government starts to employ snipers to shoot at its own citizens. Now I will probably hear from Sarmatian about Nazis throwing Molotov cocktails at those poor Berkuts. That was true as well. But protesters never tormented the captives they had which Berkut did letting one of them stand naked (in winter too) and taking photos with him. I saw videos when doctors tried to reach the wounded, they wore white vests with a red cross on them which they pointed to Berkuts and they got shot through the leg (with gum bullets, oh so very merciful Berkuts). Many of them were shot into the back while they were carrying the wounded away. Journalists infuriated Berkuts especially and were beaten and had their cameras destroyed. As far as I know all international laws forbid the use of snipers in non-military actions. Out of 20 people shot at Institutska Street on the first day of really violent skirmishes 9 WERE SHOT THROUGH THE LEFT EYE. What a hunter that sniper would have made! The tactics used by snipers tells a lot: first they shot a person in the leg and when others tried to carry the wounded away they were knocked about in heaps through the head, heart and carotid artery in the neck. Those snipers shot also at Berkut - many of those were shot through the nape. They say (unconfirmed), it was the older son of Yanukovych who hired mercenaries in Russia and Abkhasia. This son is a dentist, but he has managed to become a billionaire in three years of his father's rule.

[Gilrandir]

Also, I note that you pointed out the Ukrainian Parliament voted to impeach the old president, with the argument being that the replacement of that government was backed by democratic legitimacy.

The argument was that the President escaped, couldn't be located and thus forfeited his duties. Though it is aslo questionable it terms of legitimacy.

[Papewaio]

The problem with multinational peacekeeping force is that it will hardly be neutral. Who's gonna be in it? Americans, French, Russians, Brits, Germans? Not neutral by a long shot.

Maybe we could invite Chinese and Indian troops, in a delicious spiff of irony.

How are Indian troops any different then Canadian, New Zealand or Australian?

I do wonder if people would want to rough up peacekeepers if they were Gurkhas...

[Gilrandir]

The protests in Eastern Ukraine are instigated and indeed headed by Russians. I saw the picture of a bus with russian license plate near the square where a pro-Russian meeting was held (in Donetsk, if I'm not mistaken). The officials talk of sealing the border against Russia as some frontier guards are suspected of letting them in (bribed, of course). The guy who flew the Russian flag from the City hall in Kharkiv is a Russian citizen - a correspondent interviewed him a day later in Moscow.
As for the new Crimean authorities: the head of the Parliament (Konstantinov) is widely known in the Crimea, Kyiv and even Russia for his building frauds. He collected money from people promising to build houses for them and never did (his company is called Console). He borrowed huge sums of money in Russia and now he is trying to foot the bill yielding to Russians all he can hoping that his debts would thus be held remitted. The head of the Crimean government (Aksyonov) is an ex-racketeer of the 1990s and a criminal leader today. What they will succeed in is ruining this year "resort season" as they call it. No one will want to have rest in the Crimea and tourism is in fact the only business (practised 3 months in a year) that gives income to the Crimeans. Two thirds of the Crimean budget is donated from Kyiv as well as 100% fresh water and electricity supply comes from the continent.
The same strategy Russia apllied in Abkhasia in 1992 promising lavish investment and inclusion into Russia - search for pictures of Abkhasian resorts today: pilfered buildings,no tourists to speak of, no inclusion into Russia. The prodigiuos Sochi investment of Putin has to pay back. To do this one should destroy competitors the most powerful of which in the vicinity is (or was ) the Crimea.

[Brenus]

“MY OFFICIAL BET:
Russia will keep stirring the pot, and then send troops in to restore order.
Ukraine will be split after cultural lines.
Crimea with its strategic ports will become Russian.”
Yeap, a replica of US/NATO strategy in Kosovo. Russia might create a Crimean Liberation Army as well…. You don’t change a winning tactic.

By the way, why people always forget that Napoleon took Moscow… His mistake was to believe that would end the war, idea shared by the Germans in 1941.

[Fragony]

It is all true until the government starts to employ snipers to shoot at its own citizens. Now I will probably hear from Sarmatian about Nazis throwing Molotov cocktails at those poor Berkuts. That was true as well. But protesters never tormented the captives they had which Berkut did letting one of them stand naked (in winter too) and taking photos with him. I saw videos when doctors tried to reach the wounded, they wore white vests with a red cross on them which they pointed to Berkuts and they got shot through the leg (with gum bullets, oh so very merciful Berkuts). Many of them were shot into the back while they were carrying the wounded away. Journalists infuriated Berkuts especially and were beaten and had their cameras destroyed. As far as I know all international laws forbid the use of snipers in non-military actions. Out of 20 people shot at Institutska Street on the first day of really violent skirmishes 9 WERE SHOT THROUGH THE LEFT EYE. What a hunter that sniper would have made! The tactics used by snipers tells a lot: first they shot a person in the leg and when others tried to carry the wounded away they were knocked about in heaps through the head, heart and carotid artery in the neck. Those snipers shot also at Berkut - many of those were shot through the nape. They say (unconfirmed), it was the older son of Yanukovych who hired mercenaries in Russia and Abkhasia. This son is a dentist, but he has managed to become a billionaire in three years of his father's rule.

Left eye? As a former Rainbow-Six player I can assure you they are using hacks.

[Sarmatian]

The argument was that the President escaped, couldn't be located and thus forfeited his duties. Though it is aslo questionable it terms of legitimacy.

Then you just oust the president, you don't go to protesters to approve a new government. At the very most, you set up a transitional government which will only deal with technical issues, that is, day-to-day running of the country. Unfortunately, the new semi-legitimate government started passing huge-impacting laws and making efforts to fundamentally change the inner shape of the country and its foreign relations. And now, Ukraine is in a bit of a pickle and the best possible scenario for Ukraine is a more federalized country, with regions given more much more autonomy and addition of other peacekeepers complementing the Russian.

I don't understand why the need for sarcasm with me. I already told you I root for Ukraine in this one and hope you get out of this in one peace and with no loss of territory. I'm just looking at things in a realistic way and can't ignore the huge mistakes made during and after Maidan, or the reality of the situation at the moment. You can't keep playing poker with Putin and re-raising him because he has a stronger hand and more chips.

[Pannonian]

It is all true until the government starts to employ snipers to shoot at its own citizens. Now I will probably hear from Sarmatian about Nazis throwing Molotov cocktails at those poor Berkuts. That was true as well. But protesters never tormented the captives they had which Berkut did letting one of them stand naked (in winter too) and taking photos with him. I saw videos when doctors tried to reach the wounded, they wore white vests with a red cross on them which they pointed to Berkuts and they got shot through the leg (with gum bullets, oh so very merciful Berkuts). Many of them were shot into the back while they were carrying the wounded away. Journalists infuriated Berkuts especially and were beaten and had their cameras destroyed. As far as I know all international laws forbid the use of snipers in non-military actions. Out of 20 people shot at Institutska Street on the first day of really violent skirmishes 9 WERE SHOT THROUGH THE LEFT EYE. What a hunter that sniper would have made! The tactics used by snipers tells a lot: first they shot a person in the leg and when others tried to carry the wounded away they were knocked about in heaps through the head, heart and carotid artery in the neck. Those snipers shot also at Berkut - many of those were shot through the nape. They say (unconfirmed), it was the older son of Yanukovych who hired mercenaries in Russia and Abkhasia. This son is a dentist, but he has managed to become a billionaire in three years of his father's rule.

All very moving and emotional. But not grounds for us to get involved, especially with Russia who can screw us up quite badly if we do. By your own description, the protestors were testing the boundaries from the off, looking to provoke a reaction. Now that they've provoked a reaction, they can deal with the consequences that come with it. If you want a revolution, either deal with the results of that yourself, or make it worthwhile for outsiders to intervene on your behalf. I doubt you can do the latter in comparison with the risks involved, so it has to be the former for you.

Maybe once all this is over, you'll remember the basic rule of democracy. Once you've elected a government, you're stuck with it until the next elections. Don't like it? Make a better case and organise yourself better so you don't lose.

[Fisherking]

How are Indian troops any different then Canadian, New Zealand or Australian?

I do wonder if people would want to rough up peacekeepers if they were Gurkhas...

Because Russia would only see them as more NATO or US pawns.

China, India, and Brazil have the strongest militaries of any countries outside that sphere.

[Sarmatian]

There are first, tentative signs that the crisis might be de-escalating. In a telephone conversation between Merkel and himself, Putin agreed that forming a contact group for Ukraine might be a good idea. That would allow more serious talks between the current Kiev government and Moscow.

Besides that, Valentina Matviyenko, president of the Federation Council, the Russian upper house, spoke on Russian TV yesterday. I haven't been able to find anything in English about that so I'll just offer a recap.

She said that a war between Russia and Ukraine is unthinkable, considering historical and ethnic bonds between the peoples of the two nation. Russia isn't interested in a break-up of Ukraine, although she said that no one can forbid Crimea to hold a referendum on their future. Next she said that it appears that Crimea wants a wider autonomy (it appears Russia doesn't necessarily want a secession, but the language is ambiguous enough that they still may pull a "Kosovo" over there).

In the next part, Matviyenko said that Russia isn't interested in installing Yanukovich back in power and that that is a question for Ukrainian people, but in a fair, transparent and legal elections, which isn't possible in the current state of affairs. She went on that Russia can not talk about sending previously offered monetary aid to Kiev until there's a legitimate government there. She also mentioned the deal between Yanukovich and the opposition in February and how it is a good basis from which to have general elections.

Similar sentiments were heard from Russian deputy Foreign Minister.

What this means in practice, in my opinion, is: Yanukovich stays out but the pre-Maidan government is re-installed, everything this interim government did is null and void, and the new/old government prepares for general elections as soon as possible.

I'd say this is a fair and balanced deal, and Ukraine might even get to keep Crimea, under a very wide autonomy.

[Papewaio]

Well I don't see the irony of Indian troops going in. That one is lost one me.

[Husar]

It is all true until the government starts to employ snipers to shoot at its own citizens. Now I will probably hear from Sarmatian about Nazis throwing Molotov cocktails at those poor Berkuts. That was true as well. But protesters never tormented the captives they had which Berkut did letting one of them stand naked (in winter too) and taking photos with him. I saw videos when doctors tried to reach the wounded, they wore white vests with a red cross on them which they pointed to Berkuts and they got shot through the leg (with gum bullets, oh so very merciful Berkuts). Many of them were shot into the back while they were carrying the wounded away. Journalists infuriated Berkuts especially and were beaten and had their cameras destroyed. As far as I know all international laws forbid the use of snipers in non-military actions. Out of 20 people shot at Institutska Street on the first day of really violent skirmishes 9 WERE SHOT THROUGH THE LEFT EYE. What a hunter that sniper would have made! The tactics used by snipers tells a lot: first they shot a person in the leg and when others tried to carry the wounded away they were knocked about in heaps through the head, heart and carotid artery in the neck. Those snipers shot also at Berkut - many of those were shot through the nape. They say (unconfirmed), it was the older son of Yanukovych who hired mercenaries in Russia and Abkhasia. This son is a dentist, but he has managed to become a billionaire in three years of his father's rule.

I'm pretty sure the Molotovs started flying long before anyone opened fire. You also start by saying the Berkut fired and then you mention that Berkut got shot themselves and that there were mercenaries. It's a bit confusing honestly because why would Yanukovich bring Mercenaries to shoot at both sides to escalate the conflict and make even more sure he'd have to run away?

As for the new Crimean authorities: the head of the Parliament (Konstantinov) is widely known in the Crimea, Kyiv and even Russia for his building frauds. He collected money from people promising to build houses for them and never did (his company is called Console). He borrowed huge sums of money in Russia and now he is trying to foot the bill yielding to Russians all he can hoping that his debts would thus be held remitted. The head of the Crimean government (Aksyonov) is an ex-racketeer of the 1990s and a criminal leader today. What they will succeed in is ruining this year "resort season" as they call it. No one will want to have rest in the Crimea and tourism is in fact the only business (practised 3 months in a year) that gives income to the Crimeans. Two thirds of the Crimean budget is donated from Kyiv as well as 100% fresh water and electricity supply comes from the continent.
The same strategy Russia apllied in Abkhasia in 1992 promising lavish investment and inclusion into Russia - search for pictures of Abkhasian resorts today: pilfered buildings,no tourists to speak of, no inclusion into Russia. The prodigiuos Sochi investment of Putin has to pay back. To do this one should destroy competitors the most powerful of which in the vicinity is (or was ) the Crimea.

Crimea's tourism is their own problem. If they want to secede led by a criminal, let them. In Kiev they wanted to revolt led by violent nationalists and corrupt pro-westerners. And if Russia likes to acquire run-down, desolate regions and ruin them even more while the locals cheer for them, why do we have a problem with that? The West should have learned by now that if people do not ask the West to come and have no oil, it makes no sense. And if people ask the West to come, chances are only about 50:50 that anyone will care, worse if there is no oil to be had.

[Pannonian]

Well I don't see the irony of Indian troops going in. That one is lost one me.

Because China and India themselves have a disputed border in need of peacekeepers?

[Pannonian]

I'm pretty sure the Molotovs started flying long before anyone opened fire. You also start by saying the Berkut fired and then you mention that Berkut got shot themselves and that there were mercenaries. It's a bit confusing honestly because why would Yanukovich bring Mercenaries to shoot at both sides to escalate the conflict and make even more sure he'd have to run away?

There's a video somewhere on youtube of a trebuchet the protestors had built for throwing cocktails. The guy who posted it probably thought it was "cool". I thought the expertise was commendable, its purpose less so, and indicative of a mindset that the "authorities" were there to be baited.

[Sarmatian]

I thought more about the fact the Europeans used to send troops there in the past for various reasons and now we need their troops here to keep the peace.

[Husar]

Do we even want to keep the peace or is it time to let off steam and release the tensions in a nice and shiny proxy war?
If we do nothing now and the tensions stay, the next war will not be a proxy war but a world war. For the sake of preventing the nuclear apocalypse, we should go there now and fight the Russians. I'm just thankful I'm not in the army.

[Fragony]

All very moving and emotional. But not grounds for us to get involved, especially with Russia who can screw us up quite badly if we do. By your own description, the protestors were testing the boundaries from the off, looking to provoke a reaction. Now that they've provoked a reaction, they can deal with the consequences that come with it. If you want a revolution, either deal with the results of that yourself, or make it worthwhile for outsiders to intervene on your behalf. I doubt you can do the latter in comparison with the risks involved, so it has to be the former for you.

Harsh, but I agree. Some political groups in western-Ukraine don't make me very happy anyway.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Russia is now doing the same thing in Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine. Expect more of this in the future. The precedent for impunity has been set. NATO should have built up forces in the Black Sea after the Ossetian conflict, but decided against it. Maybe Europeans will stop the circle jerk and realize that it is time to man-up, now that their borders are imperilled by someone who has 19th century political aims.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The flags are which nations the ski instructor has worked overtime with.

insert: claims to have


We at the .org have yet to be provided with corroboration.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russia is now doing the same thing in Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine. Expect more of this in the future. The precedent for impunity has been set. NATO should have built up forces in the Black Sea after the Ossetian conflict, but decided against it. Maybe Europeans will stop the circle jerk and realize that it is time to man-up, now that their borders are imperilled by someone who has 19th century political aims.

It's simple really. Just demonstrate that you are willing to kill ten-thousand of your own to stop them. Then they will listen to alternatives. If they are willing to kill 10k of their own and you are not, your options to stop them become limited.

[rajpoot]

Following up on the man behind it all, I was reading up on Putin and I found that Merkel after a conversation with Putin spoke with Obama and told him that she found Putin was 'out of touch with reality' and in 'a world of his own'.
Interestingly I recall reading that Bush once expressed similar sentiments to Blair about Putin, saying that 'he is not very well informed' and arguing with him is like 'arguing with an eight year old'.
Really don't know what to make of it. Do Western leaders just misunderstand Putin because of extreme difference in perspectives or is Putin actually a victim of ignorance and illusions?

This relatively old article makes for an interesting read about Bush-Putin relation.

[Kagemusha]

Hmmmm..This day has been very confusing indeed. From certain sources we hear that Russia is warming up to negotiations via OSCE, while New York Times claims that Merkel thinks that Putin might be loosing it a bit, while Russian secretary of foreign affairs claims that China is backing Russian policies in Ukraine and last there is news that Russia is launching war maneuvers this time at Kaliningrad, which means the Russian Baltic fleet is flexing its muscles, which seems bit like giving the finger to the NATO statements of yesterday..And this is just part of the news from today...Very confusing indeed..

[rvg]

This is really sad. I look at what is going on and can't help but shake my head in disgust. Not because of what Russia is doing, but to whom. This would be comparable to us invading Canada. There are certain things that you just don't do to someone that close to you, not even in big politics.

[Sarmatian]

Western leaders, at least most of them, still have a colonial mindset of "we're entitled to everything and we can do no wrong". When you have Kerry condemning Putin about "invading a sovereign country under a false pretext" with a straight face, you understand just how out of touch with reality some of them really are.