Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Pannonian]

Maybe you should watch Lord of War. It's a bit over the top but apparently after the cold war ended one could buy almost anything out of former soviet arsenals provided one had enough money to do so.

There's a T-34 on a disused plot in east London, its gun pointing at the local council's office after they denied the tank's owner permission to build there. Graffiti is the camo of choice, but it gets repainted from time to time depending on who feels like climbing over the fence with a bucket and a brush.

[Husar]

There's a T-34 on a disused plot in east London, its gun pointing at the local council's office after they denied the tank's owner permission to build there. Graffiti is the camo of choice, but it gets repainted from time to time depending on who feels like climbing over the fence with a bucket and a brush.

Yes, I heard of that story. Are you suggesting that the owner gifts it to the Ukrainian army to help them out?
Arnold Schwarzenegger also has a personal tank and there is a tank driving event company or what you call it in the UK as well where people can drive Centurions. Not to forget Bovington has working tanks. Merkel wouldn't dare cross the channel.

[Viking]

Pretty convenient then that all those privately owned tanks were lined up at the Ukrainian border, ready with ammunition and operators. Not a single one of them got caught by Russian law enforcement, either. Remarkable.

[GenosseGeneral]

There were also recorded a number of incodents were separatists took tanks from WWII memorials. I doubt a T34 which stood outside for 4 decades is of any use, but from an iddological point of view it makes sense to use those vehicles "to again free the Donbass from fascists".

[Husar]

Pretty convenient then that all those privately owned tanks were lined up at the Ukrainian border, ready with ammunition and operators. Not a single one of them got caught by Russian law enforcement, either. Remarkable.

They also stole quite a few from the Ukrainian army apparently, but who said that Russian law enforcement is trying hard to enforce anything on that huuuuge border which is hard to control? And how should policemen stop tanks anyway? Nothing remarkable there.

http://ftr.wot-news.com/2014/07/09/u...mmo-explosion/

[Viking]

They also stole quite a few [tanks] from the Ukrainian army apparently

What's your evidence?

but who said that Russian law enforcement is trying hard to enforce anything on that huuuuge border which is hard to control?

The Russians are likely to have the border with Ukraine under extra surveillance currently - particularly the part that borders Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which is the area where Russian tanks would have to enter.

Earlier, I posted about AP photos of a military column belonging to the separatists just outside Debaltseve, which is close to Horlivka and Donetsk.




On the same day, there are lots of videos uploaded to social media that appears to show the same column at different places (look for the different flags; there are 2 black and orange flags, 1 Russian imperial flag and 1 Crimean flag). One of the first sightings is in Krasnodon early in the morning, right the next to the border with Russia.



The upload date says 19 June, but it seems that's YouTube's local US time:

As YouTube has previously confirmed to The Lede, its computers automatically assign a date to each video based on the current time in California when the upload begins, which can differ from the date in the user’s time zone.

which is to say that the video was uploaded early Ukrainian time, consistent with a claim that it was filmed early in the morning.

There is a lot more footage with geolocation at this blog. The guy behind the blog seems to often find patterns where there might not be any, but this time I think he is on the track.

[Sarmatian]

That's your evidence? Couple of photos and an out of focus recording of military vehicles moving inside Ukraine?

You've really got Putin by cojones with this.

[Viking]

Most of the footage is available through the blog link. There's strong evidence that a massive column of military vehicles moved from the border with Russia towards Donetsk on 20 June. What you make out of that is up to you.

[Husar]

NATO also has the border under surveillance and has previously tried to interprete this or that. But even they don't seem to have any evidence of tanks actually crossing the border to show around as propaganda.

[Viking]

We don't really know what NATO got:

It should be noted that they come from civilian satellites. This is for two reasons: firstly, they can be verified with the satellite operator; and secondly, because getting clearance for the public use of images from the military is very difficult to obtain for fear of giving away capabilities.

A senior Nato officer told me, however, that military satellite material covering the same locations gives added evidence of Russian involvement.

nor do we know what they are capable of getting in theory; herein the probability that NATO would be able to prove that the tanks came from Russia with their current assets.

[Husar]

Just remember how easy it is to find a ship on the ocean or say, a plane that was lost over the ocean. And there aren't even trees on the ocean that could block your view. Taliban kept going into and out of Afghanistan even though the world's most expensive and strongest military was trying to prevent that.

[Viking]

Just remember how easy it is to find a ship on the ocean or say, a plane that was lost over the ocean. And there aren't even trees on the ocean that could block your view.

We don't have extensive enough satellite and/or radar coverage to cover every random square kilometre of the ocean. The Ukraine-Russia border is a hotspot area under extra surveillance.

Taliban kept going into and out of Afghanistan even though the world's most expensive and strongest military was trying to prevent that.

Often impossible to tell insurgent apart from civilian when the resolution is relatively low. A tank or a convoy of tanks will be more distinct.

Meanwhile, there are reports that some separatists are deserting:

In another sign of deteriorating morale among rebels, several dozen militia fighters in Donetsk abandoned their weapons and fatigues Thursday, telling their superiors they were returning home.

"Russia abandoned us. The leadership is bickering. They promise money but don't pay it. What's the point of fighting?" said 29-year old Oleg, a former miner who served in the Kalmius battalion.

[Husar]

We don't have extensive enough satellite and/or radar coverage to cover every random square kilometre of the ocean. The Ukraine-Russia border is a hotspot area under extra surveillance.

That still doesn't mean they see everything and maybe Russia just doesn't care about people driving tanks into Ukraine. That they are not behind it does not necessitate that they oppose it.

Often impossible to tell insurgent apart from civilian when the resolution is relatively low. A tank or a convoy of tanks will be more distinct.

Yet nobody seems to see them until they turn up in Ukraine. Maybe it's because they are driven out of a garage in Ukraine.

[Viking]

That still doesn't mean they see everything

Civilians could have seen it and reported it. The odds simply stack against any movement of tanks inside Russia without the government knowing it. There's been active insurgency inside Russia for decades, they should have systems in place to spot irregular troop and vehicle movements as they could be hostile.

and maybe Russia just doesn't care about people driving tanks into Ukraine.

I am still curious to see evidence for privately owned fully operative tanks in Russia. Passive support is still support; wouldn't make the situation much better.

Yet nobody seems to see them until they turn up in Ukraine. Maybe it's because they are driven out of a garage in Ukraine.

Or, it is because they were transported without insignia by regular Russian units on the Russian side of the border and thus do not appear suspicious given the current number of Russian troops and armour in the area.

[Husar]

I am still curious to see evidence for privately owned fully operative tanks in Russia. Passive support is still support; wouldn't make the situation much better.

You're probably right about the private tank thing, seems a lot more common in the western world.
So it's probably support from mother Russia after America gave weapons to Assad's enemies.

Not nice to be on the receiving end I guess.

Or, it is because they were transported without insignia by regular Russian units on the Russian side of the border and thus do not appear suspicious given the current number of Russian troops and armour in the area.

Didn't Russia say the troops were relocated away from the border?

[rvg]

That's your evidence? Couple of photos and an out of focus recording of military vehicles moving inside Ukraine?

You've really got Putin by cojones with this.

Umm Qasr stands strong.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Someone sent me this:

http://alfa-tsentr.ru/en/

[Viking]

You're probably right about the private tank thing, seems a lot more common in the western world.

So there are no criminal tank gangs revving it up at their conventions after all? That's a bummer.

So it's probably support from mother Russia after America gave weapons to Assad's enemies.

Not nice to be on the receiving end I guess.

It's very nice, of course. Trouble is Putin won't fess up to doing any such thing.

Didn't Russia say the troops were relocated away from the border?

Here's a news report from 19 June, the day before the mystery column appeared near the border with Russia:

DNIPROPETROVSK, Ukraine — As government troops and insurgents were locked in heavy battles in eastern Ukraine on Thursday, NATO’s chief said a new Russian military buildup was underway near the border.

[...]

In what NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen called “a very regrettable step backwards,” he estimated that Russia has redeployed “at least a few thousand” troops near the border with Ukraine.

[Husar]

It's very nice, of course. Trouble is Putin won't fess up to doing any such thing.

I don't find that troubling at all, there are enough people on th internet to lecture us about why he is behind this and why he is the second coming of Hitler.

[GenosseGeneral]

Someone sent me this:

http://alfa-tsentr.ru/en/

That English site is pretentious as hell. While I have no doubt that this company exists and that many of its employees have served in one of the various 'spetsnaz' law enforcement and military units, their 'map of services' in the Russian section says nothing about air defence capabilities and the like. They offer the typical services of civilian private security: Bodyguards, guard for objects, protection for (money) transports etc.
Note however, that 1-2 weeks ago, Russian lawmakers introduced a new law concerning private military companies in Russia.

But tanks are definitely something someone has to obtain from a government source and as Viking already said, Russia has rather tight domestic security policies in place, not a miracle given the ongoing conflict in Dagestan. Thus it requires Russian law enforcement and police to close their eyes rather tightly in order not to note columns of KAMAZ and tanks passing over the border.
If there was the political will to stop those activities, they would stop fairly quickly. Recently I haven't heard about any major columns attempting to break through the border though.

[Viking]

I was reading this BBC article when I saw this photo of a guy in Donetsk wearing an Eastside Fire and Rescue T-shirt.



Must be a sinister conspiracy behind it.

[Brenus]

“President Petro Poroshenko vowed to retaliate, saying: "For every soldier's life, the militants will pay with tens and hundreds of their own." Source BBC.
“Chief of the German General Staff Wilhelm Keitel ordered that for every German occupation soldier killed in Serbia, a hundred Serbian civilians would be executed, while fifty Serbian civilians would be killed for every wounded German soldier.” Source History.
No comment.

[Viking]

It's war rhetorics and means "we will not let up the attacks on separatist positions". Comparing it to WW2 nazi retribution on civilians is ridiculous.

[Viking]

Well of course it is. But the fact remains that the Ukrainian strategy involves a lot of collateral damage. They don't have the means or the technical skill (I'm not sure if its either or both?) to do it any other way. Poroshenko is saying they will not shy away from that collateral damage in order to win, which is a dangerous strategy.

It's unlikely that they will be able to kill more separatist fighters than they already do without risking ridiculous amounts of civilian casualties, which is to say that in the end, it is empty rhetorics. It's not going to translate into anything else than perhaps an increased bitter resolve.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Well of course it is. But the fact remains that the Ukrainian strategy involves a lot of collateral damage. They don't have the means or the technical skill (I'm not sure if its either or both?) to do it any other way. Poroshenko is saying they will not shy away from that collateral damage in order to win, which is a dangerous strategy.

Eh - America blew up lots of buildings, despite being the most advanced Power in the world.

You were a squaddie - what sucks more than QCB in an Urban environment?

Lets be honest - the Ukrainian Government has to crush this rebellion, or the country will disintegrate and Russia will eat the scraps. They don't have unlimited manpower, so they have to soften the target first.

It sucks, but it's clearly necessary from a mathematical point of view.

[Husar]

It sucks, but it's clearly necessary from a mathematical point of view.

In the same way it was necessary to kill the jews for their gold teeth in order to finance the war. From a purely mathematical point of view of course...

If comparing Poroshenko's speech to a nazi speech was ridiculous, what was comparing Putin's speech to Hitler's speech then? I thought the argument was "if they say the same things, they are alike!"...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ironically - it's easier to justify killing your own people than someone else's.

At the very least, the Separatists have Grad Rockets and, to prevent mass casualties, the Army needs to use counter-battery fire which is extreemly dicey in an Urban environment.

We'll know more in a decade or so.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

In the same way it was necessary to kill the jews for their gold teeth in order to finance the war. From a purely mathematical point of view of course...

If comparing Poroshenko's speech to a nazi speech was ridiculous, what was comparing Putin's speech to Hitler's speech then? I thought the argument was "if they say the same things, they are alike!"...

Putin was compared to Hitler not because he's a new Hitler, but because it represents a similar gestating threat, and because he has demonstrated that he's a Fascist out to invade countries and take land, and because the West is singing LA LA LA just like it's 1939.

Jury's out on the new Ukrainian President, but (as previously stated) all the exemplary performance of the Ukrainian Armed forces in Crimea merited was a tube of lube from the US and advice from the Brits on how to bend over and brace so that it doesn't hurt as much.

So, if he now wants to kill all the Rebels with a rusty railroad spike - I can see why his patience is at an end.

[Brenus]

“I can see why his patience is at an end.” I can see it as well, like the SS were very upset and out of patience with the Partisans, so were justified to burn alive babies in a church… Funny enough, they followed what they leaders/superiors were saying perhaps as "empty rhetoric".
What do you think: If a Ukrainian Ultra-Nationalist (as Gilrandir qualified them once) start to kill "separatists" in frenzy, will the Ukrainian President be sent to the Hague for war-crime?

As comparing Nazi with others see comment from Husar.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Man killed in Russia: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28283502

Well, one wonders if it was a Ukrainian army shell, or a separatist shell.

Naturally, this greatly increases the chance of a Russian intervention.