Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

It's no wonder Kiev is winning - they have ninjas.

[Papewaio]

Great news. Serbia already has an increased export to Russia compared to last year. With this we can probably reach additional 0.3bn by the end of the year, and between 0.5 and 1bn in the next.

It's reminiscent of the good old days of the Cold War - NATO on one side, Russia on the other and us in the middle making a big, fat pile of cash out of both. :D

Which side of the Iron Curtain was Serbia on again?

I'm sure you guys are happy that modern Russia has shown no tendancy to annex successful former nations of the USSR.

First they came for...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Which side of the Iron Curtain was Serbia on again?

I'm sure you guys are happy that modern Russia has shown no tendancy to annex successful former nations of the USSR.

First they came for...

Actually, Serbia sat in the middle and refused to take sides - but only because Stalin and Tito had a falling out.

[HoreTore]

Which side of the Iron Curtain was Serbia on again?

Yugoslavia was a founder of the non-aligned movement, and traded with both blocks.

Actually, Serbia sat in the middle and refused to take sides - but only because Stalin and Tito had a falling out.

That's an oversimplification. First of all, Yugoslavia liberated themselves from the nazis. All the Eastern Bloc countries were liberated by the USSR. As such, the USSR had little leverage over them. Further, Tito and Stalin didn't really have a "falling out" - they had genuine ideological differences.

[Gilrandir]

Yes, on its own this insurgency is doomed.

This "insurgency" since its inception has never been on its own. Think of it: separatists are involved in active fighting for about three months and they don't run out of ammo, weapons, men. Russian "assistance" to them is on such a scale that some Ukrainian Natioanl guard units claim that they are almost completely provided for by Russia - after they captured the separatists storehouses in Slovyansk and other liberated cities.

Once Russian troops start arriving home in boxes, Putin's popularity will take a nosedive.

They already have. After the Ukrainian army captured the Donetsk airport I read information of some 15-18 (don't remember the exact number) soldiers of one Russian detachment (IIRC some airborne troops division, but I wouldn't wager on that) who were brought to Russia to be buried. A simultaneous natural death incidence? So boxes ARE coming to Russia - the problem is that Russian mass media don't touch upon that topic. Even if that homecoming becomes numerous it will take quite a longish time for the Russian society at large to learn it and yet longer to realize that Putin is to blame in it. Knowing of the power of Russian TV I would say that the latter is hardly to happen.

In uniforms and weaponry? I doubt it, but perhaps Russia is not that bothered by armed Ukrainian soldiers crossing its borders.

In uniforms - yes, but with weaponry - no. But it is hard to be bothered even if they had one - Russian troops are amassed along the border in such quantity, that a couple of hundred of battered soldiers would hardly scare them.

“Ukrainian army allegedly shelling towns.” I was expecting the denial. Sources: red Cross, about the shelling.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5629677.html
Do note I am careful not to put link with RT or/and Russian Media
You don’t have to read the article; it will spoil your moral high ground.

My moral high ground weathered it. Surprisingly, I found in it less than I had expected. Red cross mentioned the shelling but it didn't attribute it to a particular side. Recriminations of residential areas shelling have been there for quite a while so it is no news (still less moral-shaking news) for me. The only independent source mentioned was Human Rights watch, but that received only a passing note in the article. But seeing the separatists behavior in general, I'm inclined to believe the Ukrainian autorities more in this shelling issue. Yet I think that while trying to pin down separatists' Grads the Ukrainian army may have sporadically hit residential areas where the valiant separatists place their heavy weaponry almost always. At least it is not done on purpose (unlike what separatists do).

However, the "liberation" of East-Ukraine is more difficult and bloodiest than the annexation of Crimea apparently... Oops...

If our territory is taken away bit by bit there should be a time when we start putting up some resisitance, no? Resisting Putin spells blood.

In fact, extreme-right/nazi might be tempted to take revenge on the 3rd Reich defeat, but I doubt it will be in massive number.

Here we go again. You relate every piece of news to nazis (mosly Ukrainian ones). Yet those who you term Ukrainan nazis have been so far guilty of BULLYING MPs, WEARING what you identify as nazi uniforms, MARCHING through cities, SALUTING at conventions, NAMING organizations after nazi leaders, BLAMING jews in all sins and the like.
What conventional russist non-nazi "insurgents" have been doing is KIDNAPIING people (including international observers), TORTURING the dissident on a large scale, CONFISCATING the property of those who they claim they defend, SETTING FIRE to non-military objects (the ice hockey arena), LOOTING shops and banks, BRINGING DOWN a passenger plane.
Now compare the capitalized gerunds from the two lists and tell me which are more terrible. Actions speak louder than words.
And speaking about the words: you swooped hard at some organization named after Goebbels, but the same person praised by Putin did not stir you to any righteous anger. How come?

First of all, Yugoslavia liberated themselves from the nazis.

But it happened because Hiltler was busy elsewhere fighting a total war and couldn't find resources to man his fronts everywhere.

[Gilrandir]

Yes, on its own this insurgency is doomed. As for Putin's intervention, I doubt he'll go for it because of several reasons:

1. Incorporating land is expensive. He already had to raid the federal pension budget to pay for Crimea, and the people are not amused. Incorporating land devastated by war is even more expensive.

2. Eastern Ukraine on its own means nothing to him: he wants all of Ukraine. If Russian tanks roll in, he'll be pushing until they reach the Polish border. That means casualties, lots and lots of casualties on both sides. Once Russian troops start arriving home in boxes, Putin's popularity will take a nosedive.

3. If he moves in, I'm pretty sure that NATO will provide Ukraine with some serious support (aka weapons + volunteers).

4. Lots of people in his inner circle are already losing money and do not want any further escalation. He ultimately calls the shots, but he can't risk alienating his base.

Forgot to mention. SBU made public a report in which they claim that Russian invasion was to have started on July 18 and the signal for it was to have been shooting down a RUSSIAN passenger plane which was flying from Moscow to Cyprus on July 17. It was to have fallen on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian army and to have been a pretext for further Russian military interferecnce.
Why it didn't happen: in Donetsk region there are 5 towns called more or less Pervomaysk (Pervomayskoye, Pershotravneve). The two of significance are those to the west of Donetsk and to the south-east of it. The Buk was to have been transported to the former one, but the non-local separatists unaware of such name-sake problems brought it to the latter one. The ensuing events are well known to all.
SBU says that it is only a surmise, but a very likely one.

[Crandar]

First of all, Yugoslavia liberated themselves from the nazis.

That's not entirely correct. Tito and his partisans belonged to the most successful resistance group, having liberated large parts of their homeland, but they were incapable of getting rid of the Germans completely.
City likes Belgrade were captured thanks to the Red Army's intervention, while the participation of the partisan groups was solely for propagandistic intentions.
Stalin had estimated that the people of Yugoslavia would accept a communist regime much more willingly, if its forces had actively participated in the liberation of their country.

[Viking]

A state-owned Russian TV channel broadcasts live from a biker show in Crimea, in which black-clad men with torches clearly form a swastika. The TV channel even tweets about it without mentioning the swastika. What gives?

[Sarmatian]

Stuff the swastika. Prior to that they formed a pentagram. Unholy devils. After that, they formed a wedge and after that a cantabrian circle.

It means they're representing a Nazi Anti-Christ and that they will charge into their enemies and pepper them with arrows afterwards. We're doomed.

That's not entirely correct. Tito and his partisans belonged to the most successful resistance group, having liberated large parts of their homeland, but they were incapable of getting rid of the Germans completely.
City likes Belgrade were captured thanks to the Red Army's intervention, while the participation of the partisan groups was solely for propagandistic intentions.
Stalin had estimated that the people of Yugoslavia would accept a communist regime much more willingly, if its forces had actively participated in the liberation of their country.

That's mostly true. Even though partisans controlled large swathes of land, mostly in Serbia and Bosnia, it was predominantly sparsely populated hills and forests. Germans controlled most urban centers and without the Red Army and the western Allies it would have been impossible for partisans to defeat them.

When it's said Yugoslavia liberated itself, it's mostly meant effort. Partisans didn't just limit themselves to sabotage, intelligence gathering and rescuing pilots, they were actually taking the fight to the Germans and were very effective, given the difference in heavy weapons and training.

[Gilrandir]

Perhaps it is a totally unrelated post. Yesterday I visited Mezhihirya - the fabled residence of Yanukovych. I had been to some royal palaces in the vicinity of St. Petersburg and I must say the the estate of Yanukovych is on par with them. Sometimes it seems that Catherine II and Peter I fall utterly short of what Yanukovych built for himself. Well, you can form an opinion yourselves (sorry, if the photos are too numerous).

The last picture was taken on Maidan and it features a barricade most of which are being torn down today.

[Gilrandir]

A state-owned Russian TV channel broadcasts live from a biker show in Crimea, in which black-clad men with torches clearly form a swastika. The TV channel even tweetsabout it without mentioning the swastika. What gives?

For Russian TV (as well as for Brenus and Sarmatian) Ukraine is the last and sole sanctuary of Nazis. If they are squashed here it will be a safe new world to live in.

[Viking]

This seems to be the full context. Tacky stuff. Sounds like a speech by Hitler at 7:50 and onwards.

[Myth]

Guys. Guys. Don't worry. The skirmish AI sucks so their horse archers will die to our spearmen.

[Kadagar_AV]

A state-owned Russian TV channel broadcasts live from a biker show in Crimea, in which black-clad men with torches clearly form a swastika. The TV channel even tweets about it without mentioning the swastika. What gives?

What gives? A picture and show without context is what you gave.

[Viking]

The context was what I was asking for.

And actually, the full show is available in the link in the tweet (since the tweet mentioned live video, I thought the link had expired without actually checking it).

Here's some more context in English (don't miss the gifs).

[rvg]

Here's some more context in English (don't miss the gifs).

This is awesome. Done in the best traditions of the USSR ca 1980s.

[Gilrandir]

This is awesome. Done in the best traditions of the USSR ca 1980s.

When I was in Sevastopol last summer it seemed to me that I WAS in the USSR of the 1980s. Lenin's monuments aplenty, streets and squares named after the heroes of that time, intense mistrust growing into enmity at the mention of anything connected with foreigners (especially if those are the foreigners from NATO countries), local TV reminding regularly and proudly about the heroic past of the city (though both battles of which they are so proud - 1853-55 and 1941 were lost by the valiant defenders of the city).
Meanwhile SBU made public another conversation of the separatists from which it transpires that they pay a special attention to protecting from any intrusion to say nothing of burglary two houses owned by Yanukovych in Donetsk.
http://ostannipodii.com/ru/a/201408/...cha-110003972/

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Forgot to mention. SBU made public a report in which they claim that Russian invasion was to have started on July 18 and the signal for it was to have been shooting down a RUSSIAN passenger plane which was flying from Moscow to Cyprus on July 17. It was to have fallen on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian army and to have been a pretext for further Russian military interferecnce.
Why it didn't happen: in Donetsk region there are 5 towns called more or less Pervomaysk (Pervomayskoye, Pershotravneve). The two of significance are those to the west of Donetsk and to the south-east of it. The Buk was to have been transported to the former one, but the non-local separatists unaware of such name-sake problems brought it to the latter one. The ensuing events are well known to all.
SBU says that it is only a surmise, but a very likely one.

I think you've become a bit too Russian paranoid - I understand why, but it's clouding your judgement.

Given the number of Western Sats focused on the area it's unlikely Russia could have successfully staged all that without being caught. It's also unlikely that Putin would have been willing to gamble that. He's very much the man for the calculated risk, not the wild gambit. Added to this, Ukrainian forces know that, realistically, Russia won't start dropping bombs on them before it's ground troops are already engaged. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians Buks are actually shut down just to prevent this sort of thing, or at least under strict ROE.

No, the most likely scenario is still an accident.

[Gilrandir]

I think you've become a bit too Russian paranoid - I understand why, but it's clouding your judgement.

Did I say that the scenario forwarded by SBU is the one I agree with? Even SBU said that it was one of the possible reconstructions of what had happened. As for me, I don't very much believe it, yet, as Brenus says, we can't disregard any plausible explanation. I just wanted to air this version and see what others think of it.

Given the number of Western Sats focused on the area it's unlikely Russia could have successfully staged all that without being caught. It's also unlikely that Putin would have been willing to gamble that.

Yet with all the Western Sats there is no official corroboration of who had shot down the plane. Russia under whose auspices the separatists act is still not officiallly caught and continues supplying weapons, ammo and manpower across the border and shelling the Ukrainian territory. In spite of its being a proven fact, Putin goes on doing this gambling. Realizing this I wouldn't altogether turn down the SBU version - if Russia hasn't been caught so far after the accident (as most believe it to be), it wouldn't have been caught if it weren't an accident but a pre-planned act.

[Gilrandir]

This seems to be the full context. Tacky stuff. Sounds like a speech by Hitler at 7:50 and onwards.

Finally found time to check this out (though intermittently) and can give you a short outline of the show.
The anchorman says (the gist): The peaceful Soviet country lived in bliss when it was rent apart in 1991. Crimea appeared torn away from its mother Russia. In 2014 "the nazi sour dough spilled over its kneading trough in Kiev and started overflowing across the land". Ukrainain nazis shell Kramatorsk, use Grads against Slovyansk, their tanks crash Donetsk. The inhabitants of those areas look pleadingly at Russia entreating it for help and Russia will respond. Nazism would be stopped.
The show itself is to illustrate what is going on in Ukraine. So Hitler's speech is quite Ok there thus equalling current Ukrainian authorities with him. You can also see meek Berkuts attacked by vicious nazi street fighters and APCs bearing Ukrainian flags being attacked (and indeed captured) by valiant soldiers who surmount them with DPR flags.
The most curious fact in it all is the anchorman, Alexander "the Surgeon" Zaldostanov:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ls-Angels.html

[Gilrandir]

What are the opinions of the Russian "humanitarian aid" convoy? What is Russia up to?
If its purpose were really sending food and the trucks didn't contain anything else, why didn't it agree for the cargo to be inspected by Red Cross, reloaded to other trucks and sped on farther from Kharkiv region down south?
If Russia wanted to supply the separatists with ammo, weapons or manpower, why did it need the trouble of forming a huge train of white trucks and proclaiming its mission when the separatists are supplied on a daily basis through the border points the latter control without so much pomp?

[Gilrandir]

In his speech in Yalta yesterday Putin again admitted that those green men in Crimea were Russian troops.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...2#.U-2TiIF_vgs
Verbatim (according to TV channel Dozhd twitter coverage): "There was no annexation of Crimea. Yes, we used our armed forces, but only with the purpose of holding a referendum".

[Viking]

That's kind of random (Russian TV channel in Paris).

[Gilrandir]

That guy who passed in the background is sure a Ukrainian nazi.

[Don Corleone]

What are the opinions of the Russian "humanitarian aid" convoy? What is Russia up to?

This is going to be the beginning of something very, very bad.

Full disclosure, I am cynical and paranoid when I'm not making efforts to practice a spiritual way of life. Even though I believe I'm in relatively fit spiritual condition at the moment, I am pretty sure that this was exactly what that convoy was there for in the first place... bait. Now for the overwhelmingly disproportionate response....

[Husar]

This is going to be the beginning of something very, very bad.

Full disclosure, I am cynical and paranoid when I'm not making efforts to practice a spiritual way of life. Even though I believe I'm in relatively fit spiritual condition at the moment, I am pretty sure that this was exactly what that convoy was there for in the first place... bait. Now for the overwhelmingly disproportionate response....

I think the convoy they destroyed was not the humanitarian aid thing. Reporters and Ukraine said there was a different convoy of armored vehicles crossing the border somewhere else and that's the one the Ukrainians shelled. Or are you saying the Russians actually sent a convoy of soldiers and armored vehicles into Ukraine as bait? AFAIK responding to an armed incursion/invasion is quite legitimate.

[Don Corleone]

No, I didn't realize that there were two convoys: one of humanitarian aid and an armored column.

Either way, I think this has the strong potential of escalating quickly. I hope that I'm wrong.

[Husar]

The Russians just say there never was a convoy and Ukraine is shooting at ghosts now:

http://news.yahoo.com/12-russian-arm...073246864.html

[Gilrandir]

No, I didn't realize that there were two convoys: one of humanitarian aid and an armored column.

Either way, I think this has the strong potential of escalating quickly. I hope that I'm wrong.

In fact, the convoy that was partially destroyed on the Ukrainian territory was accompanying the "humanitarian" one. The latter started being inspected on the Russian territory by Ukrainain customs officers and border guards but they discovered that it has no documents as to the cargo in each truck, only a general wholesale description, so the inspection was suspended. By the way, the trucks were without lisense plates (they were put on only when the truck train reached the place where it is now) and appeared to be only half-full. Russians explained it by the fact that most of the trucks were brand-new and hadn't had their test drives, so in case any broke down they could distribute the cargo to the other vehicles.
While all this was happenning the first convoy went on to cross into Ukraine through the territory controlled by the separatists. Then it was partly destroyed.

SBU made public another intercepted call, to my mind the most revealing I've heard so far. http://lb.ua/news/2014/08/15/276231_...i_boevika.html
In it a Russian military man (nicknamed Trifon) who is currently on DPR territory is communicating to a FSB agent who is in Russia. The former admits that their defeat is imminent and wants to escape "home". He says that he doesn't wish to perish with the fanatic Strelkov (who, as he claims, under the influence of Orthodox-rooted ideology is ready to die in battle). He is strongly critical of both DPR and LNR who are engaged mostly in dividing territories (mostly Donetsk) into spheres of influence with subsequent money hoovering from locals and hijacking cars over the border with their subsequent selling. Trifon sees no sense in staying longer as he and the likes of him are needed "back in Crimea to start dealing with Tatars".
The most important parts of the conversation (as I see it):
1) Trifon says that all "theirs" (probably non-locals) are to be withdrawn, retrained in Rostov region for subversive activities and returned to Ukraine as the to-do is likely to last next 5-10 years. They leave behind a network of agents and hideaways with weapons which are to be utilized when they return.
2) Trifon is very much disappointed by the locals' attitude. He deems himself a deliverer, but locals show disapproval and even enmity to them. He exemplifies this attitude by an episode which happened yesterday. He (in his uniform) was walking down the street and a woman who passed him by blurted out : "God damn you".

One more curious thing. People here spoke of similarity of the weapons used on Maidan with medieval ones. Now one more medieval-related thing to have happened:
a Ukrainian army detachment conducted a raid through separatist-held territories destroying checkpoints, wreaking havoc and stirring panic among them. The raid was more than 400 km long and they joined again the ATO forces. A modern chevauchee?

[Husar]

Every time you mention Strelkov I need to remind myself I'm not playing Stalker.

But now I'm confused about what kind of convoy ukraine partially destroyed? Those white trucks they stopped at the border?