IKEA mafia [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

Final 7 tomorrow, final 5, final 3, you have three guesses, actually, so you only need to find two villagers inside that group of five I mentioned above. Please find those two villagers, always.

If the scums do not murder inside me and G1K, there's a low chance we guess wrong tomorrow and then tinfoil hats will come out regarding me and Golden1K at final five.

However, it no longer matters. There should never be 4 mafia on the mafia team. It is now possible to mislynch one of us and not have it be game-destroying. So that's something positive.

[Eldrick]

I agree that there should never be 4 mafia and an sk. I was totally not expecting him to flip sk, but it does explain why he had knowledge of visor's shot. He had a shot too.

He was probably telling the truth about visor shooting john, which means he shot punisher (thanks for that)

[Askthepizzaguy]

My brain's pretty sluggish this morning, but I don't want to overturn my GH analysis without thinking it through.

Just note that if GH is bus driven with johnhughthom it might have been to specifically protect GH, thinking he was going to get shot as a highly suspicious target at the time.

If that's the case then I didn't have a bad game, I had a game where people got upset that GH was going to be lynched day one and people couldn't bear it. Which is good news for GH, knowing that he's so beloved, and bad news for the rest of us schmucks.

But I'm not sure I go there immediately. Think it over fellas.

I also have been done, on a personal level, with this game since khaan left, so I am hoping and praying the murder lands on me so I can exit the game and not have to think about it anymore, so please shoot me mafia, you'd be doing me a favor.

If you do, this is the last you'll hear of me and my analysis attempts. I put in the effort and didn't walk out, but I was not happy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wonderful narrations, my love, well hosted, great vote counts near deadline, A+ first game.

See you later folks.

[Sooh]

They had been quite snuggly for a while, the two pillows who lived in the far corner of the couch. They of course knew where the other one had come from, as they were purchased at the same time and had stayed together ever since. The other furniture hadn't even dared to touch them. They were free to point (pillows point when they aim a corner at something) at other furniture, accusing them, with no fear of repercussions. The nights had been scary and they had felt very vulnerable though, and this night was no exception.

As morning came and the furniture opened their eyes they saw a sad sight. On the couch a whole bunch of fluff was just lying around, moving with the slight wind from an open window. It looked like a slaughter!

One pillow opened his eyes and cried out:

-I have been slain!

He was wrong, however. It was his friend who was slain, and would no longer be snug with his friend on the couch.

Golden1Knight has been killed

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

He was Flong pillow, town mason.

[Askthepizzaguy]

K, mafioso, gonna have to kill you for that.

Start pleading for your life.

[Eldrick]

My brain's pretty sluggish this morning, but I don't want to overturn my GH analysis without thinking it through.

Just note that if GH is bus driven with johnhughthom it might have been to specifically protect GH, thinking he was going to get shot as a highly suspicious target at the time.

If that's the case then I didn't have a bad game, I had a game where people got upset that GH was going to be lynched day one and people couldn't bear it. Which is good news for GH, knowing that he's so beloved, and bad news for the rest of us schmucks.

But I'm not sure I go there immediately. Think it over fellas.

I also have been done, on a personal level, with this game since khaan left, so I am hoping and praying the murder lands on me so I can exit the game and not have to think about it anymore, so please shoot me mafia, you'd be doing me a favor.

If you do, this is the last you'll hear of me and my analysis attempts. I put in the effort and didn't walk out, but I was not happy.

I can't think of a reason for them to use it to swap 2 townies.

Vote: GH

[Eldrick]

K, mafioso, gonna have to kill you for that.

Start pleading for your life.

FWIW you are 100% confirmed town now.

[atheotes]

Never thought we would have a serial killer (neutral) along with Vig (town) and mafia. Could have been a blood bath. Luckily for us it hasnt been so. I still think we might have a 4 member mafia team...not as strongly as before though.

Strange kill choice...

I can't think of a reason for them to use it to swap 2 townies.

Vote: GH

thats what i have been telling...

Vote: GH

[Eldrick]

Even if it wasn't a busdriver, visor shot GH and killed not GH. Something weird is going on with GH.

[Raith Kemmler]

Maybe GH is another third party?

Vote: Bsmith

[Raith Kemmler]

Agreed with Atheotes. Prolly fighting a four man mafia team.

[Eldrick]

2 3rd parties and 4 mafia?

That's insane.

[Eldrick]

I'm tempted to vote you for that, but still think GH is the better way to go.

[Raith Kemmler]

2 3rd parties and 4 mafia?

Oh, uh no, stream of consciousness made that unclear. I mean either 2 3rd parties or a 4 man mafia. Not both.

That's insane.

I'm tempted to vote you for that, but still think GH is the better way to go.

Appreciate it.

[Raith Kemmler]

Damn sleep deprivation.

Clarity activate!

2 3rd parties and 4 mafia?

That's insane.

Oh, uh no, stream of consciousness made that unclear. I mean either 2 3rd parties or a 4 man mafia. Not both.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I don't have any insight as to why Visor attacked me and I didn't show up as attacked. If I was a nexus role or a redirector or whatever it was, I would have claimed it last phase at latest as we could have solved.

BSmith is still my top suspect, that was a bad post he made the other day about rolefishing and I need to further examine his votes w/r/t the El Barto situation.

Vote: BSmith

[Eldrick]

Nexus and redirector are typically scum roles, are they not?

I wouldn't expect you to admit to them.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Start of the round, Barto gets the earlybird special vote on me.

Votes:

GH (1) - El Barto

El Barto (2) - Al Sips, atheotes

Not voting: Eldrick, Golden1Knight, Raith Kemmler, GH, edse, BSmith, Visor, Askthepizzaguy

edse wagon soon picks up, BSmith is yet to show up.

Votes:

GH (1) - El Barto

El Barto (2) - Al Sips, atheotes

edse (4) - Eldrick, Askthepizzaguy, GH, Golden1Knight

Visor (1) - edse

Not voting: Raith Kemmler, BSmith, Visor

At first glance, a scum has an easy vote on edse or Barto and can call it a day. But here's the thing though, the edse wagon stalled at this point. He softclaimed having a tracker role and named Visor as jht's attacker here:

I know, without a doubt, that Visor killed johnhughthom.

Any vote on edse afterwards would be suspicious as momentum was going the other way. Not entirely because it wasn't a hardclaim and we were still trying to get specifics, but piling on would stand out. I know as a mafioso I'm always trying to monitor the momentum of the thread, and I suspect I'm not the only one who does so. If BSmith is of a like mind he knows that the edse wagon has stopped, regardless of the vote count.

Anyway, the voting stops, and the questions start rolling in.

hmm...interesting. I do see the probability.
Are you saying Visor did not kill Punisher or are you saying Visor killed John?

Reasonable reaction from atheotes, trying to get clarification.

Hardclaim something or my vote stays where it is.

My reaction, a bit blunter than atheotes's but the core message is the same: I want more information.

Yep, hard claim vigilante or be lynched basically. Or hard claim bus driver, either way.

Once that happens, we lynch outside of the claims, and the bus driver does nothing.

Then, scum and vig likely shoot each other, saving us from having to make the 50/50 call.

Pizza's reaction, well in accord with the other two.

Discussion moves elsewhere for a bit, Pizza takes some heat for the AA vote the previous round. edse comes in and advances his theories but still doesn't hardclaim.

Votes:

GH (1) - El Barto

El Barto (3) - Al Sips, atheotes, Visor

edse (2) - GH, Golden1Knight

Visor (1) - edse

Askthepizzaguy (2) - Eldrick, Askthepizzaguy

Not voting: Raith Kemmler, BSmith

Still no BSmith. I'm not holding this against him but at this time the thread momentum is far more up in the air than where it was earlier in the round. edse's still got the most votes but Pizza's taking heat as well but not really because one of those was a self vote and etc etc etc. What's a mafioso to do?

Here we are:

I very much dislike role-fishing. vote: GH

Couple things wrong with this picture.

1) Singling one person out when multiple people did the action in question. This isn't a townie trying to have a discussion with people. This is a mafioso looking for an easy vote.
2) We're at the part of the game where clarity becomes paramount. I'm trying to solve. atheotes is trying to solve. Pizza's trying to solve. Sorting out edse's claim and attempting to determine which of him and Visor (who was still alive at this point) helps the town here.
3) The target. If BSmith is town, he gets the slightest of passes here for singling out the guy who was bluntest, but I think it's more likely that this was a calculated decision to try to get me lynched. atheotes isn't undergoing much suspicion at all. Pizza's got a couple of votes, but one of them was a self-vote and the other was because signals got crossed. Then there's me. Barto's in the lead, but he doesn't have an overwhelming majority yet and the momentum really hasn't been targeting him. Could be too early to bus. Could still be worth a shot to get something out of the round.

atheotes immediately calls BSmith out:

Seriously? that seems like a lazy vote at best. There are other people who have fished for the roles even more strongly...

As do I:

Yeah, really. I'm definitely rolefishing. It's called trying to solve the game.

Tally with three hours to go:

Votes:

GH (2) - El Barto, BSmith

El Barto (3) - Al Sips, atheotes, Visor

edse (2) - GH, Golden1Knight

Visor (1) - edse

Askthepizzaguy (2) - Eldrick, Askthepizzaguy

Not voting: Raith Kemmler



3 hours until DL

Golden switches from edse and that's the last vote move of the round. Barto is lynched.

~~~~~~~~~

SUMMATION:

1) Barto had a few early votes in the round but after that the momentum wasn't really on him, i.e. a mafioso could still think about potentially salvaging the situation, i.e. not really an optimal time to bus.

2) It was a weak momentum round in general besides the edse rush, which BSmith missed. At the one time BSmith posted in the round, there was negative momentum on edse, null to positive momentum on Barto, null on me, Visor, and atheotes. Slight positive on Pizza but you have to keep in mind the context behind his two votes. Optimal time to get a wagon going, if you play your cards right.

3) The votes on Barto were mostly results of the case on him from the previous round and thus not 100% fresh in the town's memory (this round was all about the edse/Visor argument).

4) If you can get a wagon going, I'm a decent enough target - the suspicion level on me has ranged from ALERT ALERT ALERT to low buzz pretty much all game.

5) If I'm BSmith, I roll those dice to try to score another town mislynch.

6) The execution of this strategy was poor for reasons discussed above.

Still not entirely 100% awake, feel free to correct me via context issues, etc.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Nexus and redirector are typically scum roles, are they not?

I wouldn't expect you to admit to them.

I have no idea, I've never played in games where they've been a thing.

[Eldrick]

Damn sleep deprivation.

Clarity activate!



Oh, uh no, stream of consciousness made that unclear. I mean either 2 3rd parties or a 4 man mafia. Not both.

That makes more sense. Still think 3 mafia and SK is more likely to be the only anti-town.

[Raith Kemmler]

Still not entirely 100% awake, feel free to correct me via context issues, etc.

No no, keep posting half asleep. That was fantastic. I get now why you were chosen for the Champs.

Roomie talked about null activity arguments, but I'd never seen one till now. Nice.

[Eldrick]

Speaking of half asleep, I'm at the other end of the spectrum. I work overnights, and I'm heading to bed now.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: BSmith

In order to move my vote, BSmith must present a plausible alternative theory of whodunit without copying me.

[Al Sipsclar]

Vote: BSmith.

I'd lynch BSmith>Raith>GH|atheotes>Eldrick>ATPG. I'm wary of atheotes for [a lack of] meta reasons.

[Raith Kemmler]

Vote: BSmith.

I'd lynch BSmith>Raith>GH|atheotes>Eldrick>ATPG. I'm wary of atheotes for [a lack of] meta reasons.

If Eldrick is mafia he wins MVP no matter what happens.

Atheotes doesn't feel like his last game I played where he was evil.

[GeneralHankerchief]

This lack of further discussion is a bit unnerving.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This lack of further discussion is a bit unnerving.

ok

Assume your guess is wrong. Second guess, for tomorrow?

[Sooh]

Vote count:

GeneralHankerchief (2) - Eldrick, atheotes

BSmith (4) - Raith Kemmler, GeneralHankerchief, Askthepizzaguy, Al Sipsclar

Not voting: BSmith

[GeneralHankerchief]

ok

Assume your guess is wrong. Second guess, for tomorrow?

Voting patterns say Raith, but gut instinct says Al Sipsclar. I'd do another recheck but right now, gun to my head, I'm voting Al Sipsclar.