Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Not sure about your doc point, that would only be correct if the doc received information that his protect was succesful (which there is no way that happened). If he just protected pizza then that doesnt make me as scum imo because it makes no difference as I'm not vig and I didnt shoot at pizza... only thing that would tell us is that pizzas theory isnt 100% wrong (any other protect would make that clear).

Also: Here you have the Chox wagon being in the lead:

A doctor claim would support the existence of a Mafia vig, and so Pizza's mechanical case against you. It's not 100%, but it's pretty strong, in that case.

Vote: Logic

For more than 12 hours, the wagon had 2 votes, then after GH made #3 in just a couple hours it reached its peak of 6. Half an hour after Logic pushed Choxorn past his own wagon, Winston switched.

[Slaan]

A doctor claim would support the existence of a Mafia vig, and so Pizza's mechanical case against you. It's not 100%, but it's pretty strong, in that case.

Ok dumb question: Wouldnt a doc also protect from mafia faction kill? (thats how it works on my homeboard...) or does it only protect against vigs?

For more than 12 hours, the wagon had 2 votes, then after GH made #3 in just a couple hours it reached its peak of 6. Half an hour after Logic pushed Choxorn past his own wagon, Winston switched.

True, but I still think it's weird to say 'I didnt expect it to blow up' (then why vote and argue for it in the first place)... Idk just feels off a bit. Then you just know also said that it was never the lead wagon... but I suppose some amnesia is going around so I don't fault you for that ;)

[Montmorency]

In other news, I feel like poking the bear a bit.

Vote: Manasi

It's probably somewhere in between how well she thinks I can read her and how well I think I can read her.

I think I can read her reasonably well.

not really

I think she's one that's easier to read when a wolf or two has already flipped. I'm not too good, and by which I mean horrible, at reading her tonally or by content.

Winston asks GH and Zack how well they can read Manasi. GH can read Manasi "reasonably well"; Zack reads Manasi "horribly".

GH went after Manasi and Zack never joined him. Soon after, Zack launched a case against Barto, which GH did not join.

This is just a tendril, but I'm working on a thesis that GH and Zack actively tried to differentiate their reads from each other's on the same people or things. If this is correct, then we should try to use the flips so far to make a model using the comparisons between reads and attitudes. It could help isolate candidates for their partner. Logic could affect this modeling, but to manage complexity we should do GH-Zack bivariate first and separately before we add Logic as a third variable. Since Logic has relatively few reads or interactions, it shouldn't be hard to layer the modifications onto the completed bivariate model.

Ok dumb question: Wouldnt a doc also protect from mafia faction kill? (thats how it works on my homeboard...) or does it only protect against vigs?

Would it matter? Whether or not (as Pizza wondered) a solo Mafia could wield two kills, if the game started with Mafia teamkill + vig, then as long as one of the kills gets blocked the effect is the same. Whether Winston, or Kagemusha, was a TK or a vig shouldn't affect the case wrt Town doctor.

True, but I still think it's weird to say 'I didnt expect it to blow up' (then why vote and argue for it in the first place)... Idk just feels off a bit. Then you just know also said that it was never the lead wagon... but I suppose some amnesia is going around so I don't fault you for that ;)

To have the case in the thread. Clearly, that's useful.

It was lead wagon for half an hour, cut me some slack.

[Slaan]

Would it matter? Whether or not (as Pizza wondered) a solo Mafia could wield two kills, if the game started with Mafia teamkill + vig, then as long as one of the kills gets blocked the effect is the same. Whether Winston, or Kagemusha, was a TK or a vig shouldn't affect the case wrt Town doctor.

So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.

[Montmorency]

sigh...

Maybe you truly don't see the difference, maybe you do, at this point I don't know how else to say it to make it clear.

At the start of the day you weren't in the POE for today, you were in the lynch as last resort pile. Now you're in the needs to be dealt with sooner then later pile. I

You were saying, Yes, I believe we should follow this POE (except lol Bart is in my Final 3...for whatever reason), but Imma go ahead and plan out all the lynches until final 3.

It's the difference between playing for the day and playing 4 days ahead. Now what Monty is saying that since we're considering you that we're severely altering our path to victory that was established pretty much since the first phase, so that means we have to think it out. I don't think it really is a valid point, it just means we have a smaller don't lynch until later pile.

I should point out, I recognized some problems with planning if planning involves changing course on the basis of flips - because all flips are town until the game ends.

Standard 2 deaths per round. 4 lynches, 3 kills.

Predict only 1/4 locked survives to LYLO.







But there's nothing new here. Actually, this is more arbitrary than I imagined. I can't really switch around people in the Lock/Lynch piles, or do so contingent on future lynches, because there's no new flips to distinguish lynches (effectively all town until game ends). No one can be cleared or spewed anymore (without role claims) because there are no more Mafia partners to lynch. I can't predict what new information changes the variables, so it becomes random if you make plans that deviate from Pizza's OG stable.

OK I was somewhat mistaken. You really do have to take it day by day.

So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.

I said that if there is no claim it creates problems for Pizza, so claiming now, especially near EOD, would harm town. A claim would only strengthen the case against you, even if it isn't airtight.

But I believe that the absence of any claim up to now suggests that there is no doctor, and there is no vig: Pizza's scenario is all wrong.

[Fredwood]

I should point out, I recognized some problems with planning if planning involves changing course on the basis of flips - because all flips are town until the game ends.







I said that if there is no claim it creates problems for Pizza, so claiming now, especially near EOD, would harm town. A claim would only strengthen the case against you, even if it isn't airtight.

But I believe that the absence of any claim up to now suggests that there is no doctor, and there is no vig: Pizza's scenario is all wrong.

Or Cuth is the doctor, or whoever is the doctor didn't read Pizza's post.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Or Cuth is the doctor, or whoever is the doctor didn't read Pizza's post.

Or the strongman shooter was assigned to one person, and it was meant to counter the gift giving inventor protection(s).

It's possible that it would cycle back to being another doctor protection.

Here's how you can tell we have no doctor: choxorn dies tonight.

[Montmorency]

Or Cuth is the doctor, or whoever is the doctor didn't read Pizza's post.

I had a thought that Cuth or some other lurker could be scum - just weren't around to help their partners on the Choxorn wagon toward EOD - but it's not strong reasoning and you shouldn't rely on it.