Wolf Section:
On this site, last I was active, I won three back to back to back wolf games. This is not unusual for me, when I won Vengeance By Mafia and Mushroom Fiesta on mafiauniverse I did so simultaneously. Both games started at the same time, ended around the same time. I crush towns to oblivion without much effort, care, or worry. See also the Multiball 19 which is the crown jewel of my wolfing career. I spent literal weeks doing postgame commentary and explaining how I wolf that game, expecting it to be my last game ever.
Wolfing, you have to find all my wolf partners, leave me for dead last, and then yeet me for not finding all the wolves and being murdered for doing so.
That's how you defeat me when I am a wolf, because I antispew and distance too well and am primarily an Intermediate Wolf. That means I survive as long as I can but I set up all the remaining wolves for success by creating unpairing interactions, pairing interactions with villagers, disconnected interactions with partners, distancing and bussing interactions, and then I've been playing against analysis since the first post, planning to die.
I gain all the wolf read I earn for all the villagers I kill and the terrible things I do to the town, and then when town finally kills me, they look to my wagon to find my partners, because I always bus or get bussed.
When you Defend a partner, it's easy to read. You, them, partnership.
When you Distance from a partner, it's easy to read. You, them, partnership.
When you IGNORE a partner, and vice versa, it's easy to read.... ish. You have to be past the point where everyone has a lot of nulls, so this takes to day 2 usually to spot. But it's easy. No read either way, weak hedgy leans either way. It's as partnery as bussing, distancing, or defending at that point.
What is harder to analyze is Bussing.
Because straight up killing a wolf is how town has to win the game.
A wagon of 7 votes appears on a wolf. Some of those have to be townies, but who? Some can be wolves, but even then, they might not be.
Town, in hunting my partners for bussing, will hurt their own townies who are solving properly.
Bussing creates the situation where town has to kill townies for doing things townies have to do in order to win games.
I am also very good at bussing. It's my strategy every game as a wolf, everyone knows it, and it still works, because it is the strongest strategy by far and it is anti-analysis.
7 people on a wolf. You're one of them and town. Which of the other 6 names are my partners? How many of them are?
Now, suppose you find them eventually. Wagon on my partner.
Which of the people on THAT wagon is a wolf? If any?
Remember, you also have to consider people who defended them, ignored them, distanced from them. All of those are also viable, so when I bus 80 percent of the time, the remaining 20 percent is my partners who are NOT getting caught when you suspect bussing.
But I bus and get bussed enough you HAVE to consider it.
Therefore, everyone on the second wolf wagon is a suspect besides yourself. And everyone off wagon as well.
This is why it is infinitely superior to powerwolf defending. As soon as one wolf falls, they all do, and wolves will never not shoot that group of players that all townread each other no matter how many townies they destroy, because at some point they will hit wolf if they keep voting outside of their uninfiltrated group.
It's a fact that the wolves would shoot them. When they don't, town is naive for allowing themselves to get smoked by unnatural mutual townreads that keep yeeting villagers.
That's the simplest possible wolf strategy to analyze and it is the absolutely most visible one. No power wolfing defend wolves attack villagers team has ever not been caught by my analysis in the past 10 years, outside of turbos and mashes.
Distancing is the exact same thing. Townies kill their suspects.
Subbed into a game near lylo, a guy had been wolf reading someone else for like three rounds, casing them, and voting elsewhere. Other guy defended against the case and never really pushed back or wondered why he wasn't pushing his top suspect to death.
That was trivial, I said they were both wolves and they were.
That stuff is so easy to read because it isn't how villagers do. Villagers do vote their suspects and try to kill them to death. They don't make a big case, and stop convincing everyone of their case, and wander away, when the belief is so persistent it lasts three rounds and is the top suspect every day.
You might as well say they're your mason buddy at that point, for how connecting that behavior is.
Ignoring stops being viable around day 2 or day 3 when everyone should have a read on everyone else.
Those three strategies are ass. They suck. They don't work. They're trivial to read.
Bussing: I know the weakness of bussing. It's how I forced three mafiosi in lylo into a mutual bussing death spiral and they straight up conceded.
Bussing does not work when you get no town credit for doing so, was forced upon you by external forces, and when called out for bussing, and it's correct that you're both wolves.
Doesn't work. Just makes you lose faster. That's the counter to bussing is correctly sussing the busser and killing them next.
Then you have to correctly sus the remaining wolf(ves) and that can be hard.
It's not easy to counter bussing. Not at all. Because as long as the wagon is a one in six crapshoot, and you also have to consider every stinkin name NOT on the wagon, you have a pool of suspects that is 8 to 12 names long.
Every time a wolf flips, you gotta find another wolf within 8 to 12 names.
Whereas powerwolf defending strategy that kills townies, it's simple- one flips wolf, I kill the people that unnaturally townread them.
And it's usually just their partner, and maybe a townie that got suckered by it.
I'll take that 50 50 shot because I can cold read townies by process. I will win that 50 50 a lot more times than 50 percent of the time.
Defending strategy works in turbos and mashes, because townies cannot analyze. Defend strategy is strictly bottom tier in slow formats.
It's the worst possible strategy, of them all, by far. At least distancing fools townies, but Defending, anyone can read it. This is trivial. It's level zero or level one, whatever you wanna call it.
Every townie goes: You defended X all day, called em town, didnt look normal, and they were a wolf. Anyone can do this. It's as simple as going who defended the wolf the wolfiest way.
And the number of names for who did it is usually small. That's why finding partner 2 after 1 dies is so easy.
Bussing, find partner 2 in a list of 10 names. Again, find partner 3 in a list of 9 names. Find partner 4 in a list of 7 names.
Bussing gets a wolf to endgame because once everyone in town has killed a wolf, everyone has town credit.
Which means no one has town credit. Everyone is null. Everyone is a suspect. Everyone can have bussed. It is anti-analysis.
The wolf nightkill can land on anyone, because everyone is equally villagery, and everyone knows the wolves hid within the townsiding strategy of bussing.
Everyone alive townsided. Therefore everyone fits the criteria for what the wolf plan was.
Everyone KNOWS the wolf plan. Because by brute force, everyone contributed to that wolf plan, it's the only possible plan that could have happened.
But because of that, all that town credit for yeeting that second wolf is gone.
No one has town credit.
There is no town core.
There are only nulls and suspects.
This strategy destroys every town or forces a LYLO confrontation that usually wins. Bout 80 percent win rate. It hasn't not had one of those two outcomes in 10 years in slow games: town is dead, or town almost lost in LYLO final 3 and barely won.
That's how I wolf.
It works. It almost always wins. In games without an alignment cop I win 95 percent of the time, the last time I checked, and I have some 85 or so slow games as mafia to base that on.
And it's not just the cop, they need to use it specifically to hit the deep wolf, not me. I am not usually the deep wolf. I create the deep wolves, yeet townies, and die gloriously. Cop checking me is therefore not the move. You yeet me without a cop check, always, when I don't find every wolf personally and get nightkilled for doing so.
If you cop check me, it protects all my wolf buddies from being cop checked and outs the cop. Nothing pleases me more as a wolf. I've been in antispew since well before the game began. I once did a gambit that was more than one year long, and resulted in me playing against my own meta for that whole year in order to be townread as wolf. It worked.
I am someone you should put on ignore mode when I flip wolf, because that will help you read the game correctly. Town has correctly done so before, and they won because they did that instead of reading my posts.
That's smart. It prevents me from exploding all the mental land mines I always leave everywhere in my wolf iso. It's the correct counter if you're going to kill me early and I flip wolf. Otherwise, the even better solution, is make me the final wolf, and then kill me dead for not finding the final wolf.
That will literally always defeat me.
Town section:
I use how I wolf to find other wolves. I am the Dark Lord of the Sith who is kinda ticked off at my former associates and wants revenge because I am not part of their little plan right now, and am their target.
I find the wolfy moves, the wolfy plans, the wolfy behaviors, the stuff i have seen win games for wolves over and over and over. And even the ones they lost, this is what they TRIED to do to win.
Sometimes, townies accidentally do moves similar to that.
So I take my execution blade, and I tap them with the flat side of it, and try to figure out they are a townie doing wolfy things before I stab them.
Town wins when town stops killing townies, but still kills someone.
It's as easy as not killing people you townread and townreading townies correctly, and stabbing within the remainder very carefully.
The trouble comes when someone is a level 5 wolf and punks me or does a strategy so unusual and disconnecting that a wolf enters my towncore.
The adjustment now is that, I have reads, but I have no public towncore.
No one can get into my towncore, kill me, and then survive on my legacy reads. That's the adjustment. That's how I stop allowing wolf 4 to win.
Why am I confident it's actually just a battle between me and wolf 4, the only wolf that matters:
Because I will be dead by some means before I find wolf 4.
Doctor dies, strongman shot, no doctor at all, being alive near mid-game also does it.
Every wolf team has people on it that read like a wolf. The lucky ones get someone strong who get townread and then go deep.
That's the wolf I need to find.
I usually have 1 round to find them. Day One, where I have no information at all except what people post.
Finding scummy wolves, easy. That happens almost every game. Failure on this front is now a rare event for me. Once a year kind of deal.
Avoiding yeeting the scummy townies, difficult. That's what I've spent the past five years trying to improve as a process, it involves questioning, processing, and being careful toward my suspects and looking for reasons to disprove my own case work rather than tunnel it.
Causes me to let a wolf go every few games, but also causes me to find 6 townies per round of play. That's a winning trade I will take every game.
Finding townie townies, easy. That's my main focus, it's why my towncores are usually game winning.
Finding townie wolves, that's hard. That I usually cannot do on day one.
It takes deeper analysis, longer time, and I usually need at least 1 flip and 1 nightkill to assist my odds.
After that, I come out strong on Day 2 and I have usually found at least 1 townie wolf.
That's why I need to survive to Day 2, to find wolf 3 or 4, whoever is deep. If I do not, then I just find scummy wolves, they get POEd, town gets complacent, town loses.
Because I find every wolf but one almost every single game. This has been happening since well before 2017 as well, but that was the year I had it with my town game and decided to revamp it because I got really sick and tired of it.
Look at my signature line.
Winston Hughes is the only wolf that survived my suspicions in XCOM.
Montmorency is the only wolf that survived my suspicions in Chess Mafia.
One wolf survived my suspicions in Dark and Stormy Night on MTGS.
One wolf survived my suspicions in the other game on MTGS with 4 wolves instead of three.
One wolf survived my suspicions every game I played that year, just the one. Only one. It happened every game.
Since then, I found most of the wolves in Mafia, Masons, and the Plague. Died because I townread 2 of them in a 5 person team who had the majority of a giant neighborhood and they also bussed a power role wolf day one. I learned from it. But I killed three wolves and a serial killer through my analysis.
I found 3 wolves in Mafia in Spaaace by Kaiveran. Then I let one go because I am an idiot, and allowed a zero posting townie to get yeeted instead of my top suspect the round before LYLO and a different townie snap voted wrong in LYLO.
I found 2 wolves of three in Ticked Off, could not find the third.
I found 1 wolf in Haunted By Slep, on day one, claimed cop, kept the cop alive, and died. Real cop found second wolf. We lost because third went deep.
I found all the wolves in Fight of the Mafia. All 4 of them in five guesses on one round, because they did the wolfy Defend strategy and openwolfed and crushed obvious townies together on day one despite being 2 teams of 2. I shut that shit down hard.
I found 5 of 6 wolves in War of Princes, with the help of a very strong town and a doctor protecting my ass.
I found 3 of 4 wolves in the GITP game Enderwiggin can tell you about, where AvatarVecna punked me, but I destroyed all their teammates by vote or final top suspect pointed at before I was nightkilled.
I found all 3 wolves in Return of the Clowns.
I found almost all the wolves, except the inactive one that lost due to inactivity, in the last game I was playing on Giraffe, forget the title.
I found the final wolf on sub in in Covenant of Darkness, in a POE of exactly 2 names. Was yeeted by my town despite being their cop, and they never eliminated my top suspect despite having time to do so. I townread everyone else.
I found 1 wolf on day one of Friends 17, and 3 wolves that night by analysis, was killed n1. Submitted my guesses to the game host for posterity since I couldn't post my analysis d2.
I found 1 wolf on day one of Gimmicks Mafia, and was nightkilled n1.
I uncharacteristically did not find a wolf at all in Kingmaker. I did correctly sus Vegeta, about three names deep, but never recommended his death, so I cannot call that a catch. A rare complete whiff. I was nightkilled n1 and never allowed to reassesss.
I yeeted a wolf on the first round of a sub-in during Help Test 3. I was a universally scumread nearly d1 yeeted inactive slot. I claimed town poisoner, yeeted one of the 4 wolves, called another wolf a wolf all day before letting them go, corrected my reads on Memory and Lemonfairy who I had as wolf reads but then townread, I correctly POE'ed Triplehaven, and I also correctly POE'd Nanook and said he was unpaired with Memory.
I was nightkilled the first night I was in play, I was also wolf poisoned because of poor coordination on the wolf team, and also wolf redirected, keeping the town masonry which was outed alive, and the town poisoner was able to shoot without molestation, and they shot a wolf, and they bagged a wolf d3, and the final wolf conceded eod3.
I let a wolf go d1 of the Light 13er, he died d1 anyway, I accused the only wolf PR at start of day 2 because of overnight analysis of end of day 1, and he was my top suspect until he died d3, and I accused Wisdom every day, d3, d4, d5, and d6 correctly. Townie voted me incorrectly at LYLO d6. The wolf left me alive for this purpose, it was meant to discredit me, and it worked. Every townie townread me that game until that one townie in LYLO did not. I accused and voted a wolf every round for 6 straight rounds, but had other suspects and I failed big time here. Because of my wolf game, I asked everyone to lay off this person who couldnt townread me in LYLO.
Some unspecified other game. Take a wild guess when I died, and what alignment I was when I died. Not a hard puzzle.
I accused and yeeted a wolf D1 of Climbing the Mountainous. I was alive D2 because I paired them with a townie, yeeted said townie, and was killed n2.
I'm listing off the top of my head, there's a games archive that I need to update which has more games than that, which I am forgetting about.
But basically, I am confident I can find wolves because games where I did not find a wolf happen once a year.
And I follow processes that find wolves and predict what wolves do because it's based on what every wolf has done, on every forum, in every game, in every setup, with every kind of personality, forum meta, culture, and belief system, for half a decade.
It finds wolves because wolves follow behavioral archetypes I can show you happen every game.
They are behaviors that are alignment indicative and I can predict will happen in future games.
In the Light 13er, Wisdom did scumtells I published in 2020. She did them, in spades, in 2022, in the game I accused her for 4 rounds straight.
And I also correctly called out her distancing votes from moth, the wolf PR, and moth's distancing votes on her, not meant to kill because he was universally scumread and could not go deep.
Why I have to go so hard:
I die immediately almost every game because I find wolves.
I request doctor protection because that is how I find the wolves that matter at all, the ones who CAN win the game. I can't find them on day one very often.
I have to solve during the one day I am ever alive.
I have to find the wolf before I die, because I am dying anyway even if I do not find them. See Kingmaker, see Climbing the Mountainous.
Because I cannot tank a night kill for a town PR when I am a town PR, which is why I had to go hard in War of Princes.
My plan, burned out, was to slank that game. Randed a PR.
Guess what I forced myself to do for weeks on end? 100 hours of solving to find all the wolves, because I was a town PR, and had to play it hard.
Didn't have a choice.
Don't have a choice here. Have to find a wolf D1, have to find a wolf N1, have to find a wolf D2, have to survive that long.
Not allowed to do anything else.
Not allowed to slank. Not allowed to go soft. Not allowed to not try. Not allowed to die D1 or N1 this game.
Wanna sit back and meme and joke. Not allowed.
Did not get VT. So I am forced to try to find a wolf.
I lost the rand in a different way.
But before I die, I kill a wolf. That's my entire purpose.
I die before N2 ends, 100 percent of the time in this game. I do not have a choice in the matter.
I am lock clear. I am not allowed to even be the yeet today. I am not allowed to not try.
When I leave the game, there will be 2 or 3 wolves remaining to find.
That is my sole purpose, and it means I cannot slank or joke or meme, and it stresses me out, and I can't keep up the charade of being jokey or memey.
Vanilla town is my favorite role. I am playing a little upset because I wanted a rest game, and I didn't get a rest game.
A wolf rand would have been preferred. It's just rote automatic behaviors at this point. And I stopped caring a long time ago about the wolf win percentage and it still hasn't dipped at all. It's disgusting.
There, I just bared my soul. You now know who I am and my history and why I'm a little bit like sandpaper to the touch at the moment.
If it reads arrogant, understand also, every single time I yeet someone, all my mental demons tell me I am utter dogshit and that I just crushed a townie and that I should stop trying, and that when town loses, it is my fault.
It's agony every single time. I still do it because it's the thing I do that, by my track record, I need to be more confident in doing, instead of constantly shitting on myself when I guess wrong in a guessing game.
Originally Posted by dyachei
Re: Casual december game
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