Casual december game

[hollowkatt]

can it be ladd/dya or ladd/amy or do you think that amy/dya are always the same

nevermind I kept reading

[Montmorency]

Correction: Amp was only parked offwagon D2, it was Kage D1.

One more team I want to rule out is Kage-Amp-dya. Small-brain world.

Sad thing is that few to no suspects are going to be NKed by Mafia, as they'll be attempting to break through to mech-clear townies from now on.

[Montmorency]

I only remember Zack's game where you subbed in and were a woof.

Looking at those posts Visor never used words that exuded confidence in your alignment imo.

If you're town I do think you post high quality analysis, so the visor can soulread me angle is sort of odd tbh.

Mass Effect? Where Logic subbed in to a made-scum slot and shitposted a little before ghosting as the absolute consensus ouster settled around him and his team hard-bussed from the outset?

The Logic wagon that Visor initiated?

monty, i think logic/dolby is a wolf

that is the long and short of it

You are doing me a concern.

[D1 Csargo responding to Logic about who should know his meta]

[Csargo]

I was wrong, Visor already called me out on that. It's also tainted cause dolby, so it still would have been wrong anyways.

[EnderWiggin]

can it be ladd/dya or ladd/amy or do you think that amy/dya are always the same

I think it can be ladd/dya or ladd/amy.

I don't think amy/dya are hard paired.

[Boquise]

Summarizing my sentiments on the wagonomics so far, ahead of reading ladd for tomorrow:

D1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Late-mid D1. Logic always a dominant candidate D1.



Late D2. Almost identical.



Amp and Ender wagons appear. If Amp is maf, Boq looks good, though his initiation of the wagon could certainly be a calculated risk.



Final tally. I don't believe there would have been any reason for more than two scum to sit on a wagon together for extended periods. So on the Ender wagon, Csargo-dyach should be antipaired.

D2

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Shortly after Pizza's reveal.



Nearly 12 hours later, Ender and Amy are once again prime contenders.



Late D2. The Visor wagon has appeared. I didn't think there were more than 2 scum on Ender D1, and there's still really no reason at all for scum not to spread out D2. Ladd may have one, or even zero, partners voting with him on Ender.



EOD movements. Boq unvoted Kage and Dya moved to HK. As in D1, we have a situation with two townie wagons, plus an alt wagon on a low-impact player.



Final consolidation. Renata from Ender to Visor, Csargo on Visor, HK back on Visor, Boq on Visor.
Monty on Ender (and Visor self-pres). Ender wagon is pure other than for ladd. :P
Kage wagon fades for self-pres and Cape adds to HK.
Amp again ends the day parked off-wagons.

Once again, we must not expect any wagon to contain more than two scum - though I do believe Visor was dangerous enough that he had at least one scum voting him for sure.

Ladd-dya makes sense for separating out from Ender wagon to avoid association.

HK scum is tricky because it can still fit with a large series of permutations.

Most natural pairings on Visor wagon are Taffy-Csargo and HK-Boq. Renata has been at odds with HK and Csargo, but that isn't dispositive.

Kage and Amp will remain wildcards until a second mafia is flipped, so we shouldn't focus there.

Teams of interest: Taffy-Csargo + Amy/Kage; ladd-dya-... teams difficult to assess from VCA, better to ISO dya;

Thoughts on the thread D3:

*Kage and Amy AWOL, and in case you didn't expand the VCA I count them as wildcards for now.
*I could be biased since I'm entertaining, mechanically, a Csargo-Taffy pairing, but Csargo and Taffy seem a bit frozen, tentatively reaching out for shades to keep alive (let me repeat how sketchy Csargo's unusually-assertive case on Renata looks in the immediate aftermath of the Mafia leader (ladder) openly parking on Ender in response to my call).

quick reflection: taffy and renata were on both flipped main wagons.
Probably unpaired?

[Boquise]

I'm gonna need you to convince me Dya wasn't just pocketing Amy.

But I'm leaning the same way on Amy herself.

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

[Csargo]

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

Is this a normal occurrence?

[Ampharos]

wow hello judging by the OP i have missed a LOT

i'm not sure i'll be able to plug back into this game in any meaningful way but i don't wanna be a COMPLETELY empty slot

[Csargo]

Ampharos was active for D1 and like half D2. I don't see why it's not possible?

[Csargo]

wow hello judging by the OP i have missed a LOT

i'm not sure i'll be able to plug back into this game in any meaningful way but i don't wanna be a COMPLETELY empty slot

[Ampharos]

bout to make some broad strokes assumptions about what y'all are discussing so bear with me if there are any inaccuracies in that sense

but in pretty much any given game i would expect dya to A. place a higher-than-ordinary emphasis on solving my slot and B. have a higher-than-ordinary accuracy rate in doing so

this is a pattern that consistently repeats across their village games and presumably wouldn't be significantly altered as a wolf

so reading into dya's posts towards me to look for pocketing is going to be... somewhat difficult

i'll note that i personally detected nothing out of the ordinary in interacting with them, which isn't a townread so much as "this didn't immediately trip any alarm bells"

[Ampharos]

hi! sorry for my absence - combination of an extremely busy past few days irl and a general lack of motivation to play mafia (p5r continues to be really good!)

but uhh from the few posts i've read surrounding ladd's death it looks like i'm going to be #neverpunished for it

so ggez

[Ampharos]

4. Montmorency - old townread i wanna keep
5. Ampharos - :)
9. EnderWiggin - almost certainly not w/ ladd
12. Vulgard - mech clear iirc?
15. Renata - old townread i wanna keep

2. Csargo
3. Hollowkatt.
7. dyachei
13. Boquise
16. Totally not Taffy
17. Kagemusha

3 in there? seems doable

[Csargo]

hi! sorry for my absence - combination of an extremely busy past few days irl and a general lack of motivation to play mafia (p5r continues to be really good!)

but uhh from the few posts i've read surrounding ladd's death it looks like i'm going to be #neverpunished for it

so ggez

It's okay, no need to apologize, life happens. I also have a lack of motivation tbh.

Indeed indeed.

[Ampharos]

idk what if we just kill kage lmao

[Ampharos]

boq and kage vaguely unpaired for interactions i might be misremembering. gth if there's a wolf in here it's kage

hk and dya vaguely unpaired for interactions i might be misremembering. gth if there's a wolf in here it's very weakly hk

i stand by my "i think csargo would have handled visor's fake differently as a wolf" thought, but acknowledge that i need more than that to clear someone at this stage

taffy is a black box full of words i haven't read

[Ampharos]

vote: Kagemusha

this is fine for now

good work team see you in another week

[Vulgard]

I don't hate the Kage push.

I know I'm not exactly helpful today but I broadly agree with the susses. Personal priority is killing in Amy/dya (currently prefer dya) but I could be swayed otherwise.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (2): Ender, Vulgard
Taffy (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Kage (1): Amy

[Boquise]

Is this a normal occurrence?

Imo it is because it isn't a useful pocket. It is better to pocket either a lhf townie and then allow them to get misyeeted, or to pocket an active power town for protection tbh

[EnderWiggin]

Imo it is because it isn't a useful pocket. It is better to pocket either a lhf townie and then allow them to get misyeeted, or to pocket an active power town for protection tbh

Pocketing D1 because Amy was active-ish isn't crazy.

[EnderWiggin]

Also I have literally pocketed lhf because it's fun to turn the poe on town.

[Vulgard]

I kinda feel like Amy is too low-effort to be a wolf. This is a bad read, but it's on my mind.
@Boquise You sure Amy/dya is the same alignment? I feel like there's a reasonable chance dya is a wolf and Amy isn't.

I'm also not opposed to voting Kage. His whole thing with the reading of pushes felt like busywork.

[Vulgard]

Idk about Monty, either, after reading his stuff today.

[Renata]

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

I gonna keep harping on this but I don't think that that kind of blatantly obvious hard defense of a town player who other people are reading as scum is about pocketing that player at all. It's about looking reasonable or correct or something when that player dies and flips town. If one of them flips mafia and you immediately start going after the other for this reason alone with no additional justification I'm probably not arguing too hard, because it could be correct (nobody else is actually bound by my beliefs about how they're going play), but I am side-eyeing the hell out of you if you're wrong. Ladd spew or no Ladd spew. Stop insisting on something being certain when it's not. From someone who likes to talk about "nuance" you have none here. Why?

[Renata]

I'm not going to be here but somebody really needs to read Taffy in full. She's disappearing otherwise and that's not good. People are talking about her but nobody is doing real work.

I don't have any solid reads. Hollowkatt, Dyachei, Csargo (in that order) remain bottom of my PoE, but I haven't been able to keep up well and don't feel super informed. I don't remember anything Kage has done that feels solid town. Taffy has, but I liked Ladd's post in a vacuum too. I don't know about Monty at all and am just hoping that future flips might help there.

I did a post on Hollowkatt yesterday that needs looking at to see if it still holds up. I don't know if the obvious irritation over Monty's Boquise-HK pairing is meaningful, but I think the back-off after being called out on it might be. I also didn't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladd's flip, by going through previous posts in strict chronological order. Bias speaking for sure but that felt artificial.

vote: Dyachei like I said, hope to be back before end of day.

[Vulgard]

The more Renata posts, the more I am inclined to hardclear her.

[Csargo]

Kage can be woof for reasons Visor stated I think, my only concern is game volume being too much for them keep up.

[Csargo]

Kage can be woof for reasons Visor stated I think, my only concern is game volume being too much for them to keep up.