Logistics, not tactics.....Israel is doomed to a slow spiral into dissolution.
1. They are grossly outnumbered and the native resources of the arab states around them are greater than those Israel can bring to bear. This places Israel in a long-term "behind the 8-ball" situation. To date, Israel has maintained an "edge" anyway by leveraging other factors.
2. Part of the edge Israel maintains despite this inequity of native resources is a result of US support. Efforts by various political elements throughout the West and throughout much of the Muslim world to decouple the US and Israel will bear increasing fruit as America's demographics change. Dwindling support will leave Israel on its own and that is a losing game in terms of resources.
3. Another part is the Israeli hyper-patriot doctrine coming out of the kibbutz era. This sense of patriotism and its "us" mentality is being eroded from within. Israel's "force multipliers" vis-a-vis the resource inequity are fading -- without a replacement on the horizon.
4. Palestinian motivation shows little signs of wavering or atenuating itself.
Suggested implications:
A. Removing US resources will result in the destruction of Israel, though not quite so quickly nor cleanly as Rory implies. The Israeli will to win is the component that can counteract this.
B. Israel itself is losing the will to win in the face of the horrific cost of victory -- terrorism is working in that it has shifted the primary focus of warfare onto the civilian populations -- and Israel is held to a different standard of behavior than is its opposition (by the Western media, by common morality).
C. Israel is progressively being placed into a forced choice scenario by its terror-tactic opponents: Lose or butcher everybody in the opposition (and I mean everybody -- a desert called peace).
As I don't believe that Israel is capable of eradicating the Palestinians, I must conclude that Israel will dwindle and, ultimately, dissolve. The Jews will be a minority ruled by arabs and there will be no uniquel Jewish state.
Stray thoughts:
The warlords are winning this one. One more joyous step towards barbarism.
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