A Problem of Shrinkage

[CountArach]

Check the polling for the thirty-and-under crowd. If that doesn't make you sit up and take notice, nothing will. Examples (and this is just me doing some sampling; I'm sure CountArch could illustrate the point far better):

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

[Spino]

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

The Achilles heel of the youth vote is that despite their noise and excitement the youngsters never turn out in large numbers to vote. This recent election didn't see the explosive youth turnout the media and DNC kept insisting would happen.

What will be important is whether these kiddies stay true to the liberal causes the older they get. The fact that so many of them are overwhelmingly liberal means they could wind up being like the Baby Boomers, forever liberal... albeit less so as they hit their golden years.

[seireikhaan]

The Achilles heel of the youth vote is that despite their noise and excitement the youngsters never turn out in large numbers to vote. This recent election didn't see the explosive youth turnout the media and DNC kept insisting would happen.

What will be important is whether these kiddies stay true to the liberal causes the older they get. The fact that so many of them are overwhelmingly liberal means they could wind up being like the Baby Boomers, forever liberal... albeit less so as they hit their golden years.

Methinks the baby boomers were plenty conservative in their younger days. When one stands to benefit from government handouts, it is rather interesting what it can do to their ideology.

However, I don't see any Republican being the rallying cry in '12. The gov'nuh from New Mexico that CR linked to seems like the most qualified person I've seen yet, however he has pretty much no press and will have to really storm the scene. And he may be too libertarian for the social conservatives that he'll need to win over to get the Republican nomination, particularly if their battle cry continues to get increasingly shrill.

[CountArach]

The Achilles heel of the youth vote is that despite their noise and excitement the youngsters never turn out in large numbers to vote. This recent election didn't see the explosive youth turnout the media and DNC kept insisting would happen.

This is a trend that has been reversing itself over the last 3 elections. There is still a lot of inequality in terms of voter turnout. What I find interesting about that article is the effect that education on voting patterns - a more educated citizenry is genuinely more engaged.

Lol at the drop after 88, looks like the first Bush totally ****** it up for the conservative movement.

In the article this is explained largely by the election of Bill Clinton rather than Bush I. The idea of a young man being elected rather than another old guy was quite appealing I would imagine.

[Lemur]

What will be important is whether these kiddies stay true to the liberal causes the older they get. The fact that so many of them are overwhelmingly liberal means they could wind up being like the Baby Boomers, forever liberal... albeit less so as they hit their golden years.

A longish article on this subject. Interesting bit:

I've been troubled in recent months when discussing the issue of young voters with some fellow Republicans. There seems to be a sort of conventional wisdom that we should expect young voters to trend liberal and Democratic, that the behavior of young voters in 2008 is not serious cause for concern. This stems from a belief in partisanship as a life-cycle factor, that voters start liberal and Democratic and wind up older, conservative, and Republican. But the data paint a very different picture. Take the graph of partisan identification for instance; over the last few decades, young voters have not identified with the Democratic party in substantially higher numbers than voters overall. Even conservatism had its moment among young voters in the 1980's. Yet with the end of the Reagan presidency, young voters shifted toward liberalism. This ideological shift did not play out into actual partisan identification in a meaningful way until 2006 and 2008.

Another bit of conventional wisdom I hear from my fellow Republicans about the youth vote is that they need to vote Democratic twice before they are "locked in for life", supporting the notion that there is still time to turn the tide among this generation. Unfortunately, given that the shift began in 2006 and not 2008, for many voters the GOP may simply be too late. For the rest, if the Republican Party does not take immediate action to repair its brand, this generation may exhibit similarly low levels of Republican identification for years to come.

[ICantSpellDawg]

A longish article on this subject. Interesting bit:

I've been troubled in recent months when discussing the issue of young voters with some fellow Republicans. There seems to be a sort of conventional wisdom that we should expect young voters to trend liberal and Democratic, that the behavior of young voters in 2008 is not serious cause for concern. This stems from a belief in partisanship as a life-cycle factor, that voters start liberal and Democratic and wind up older, conservative, and Republican. But the data paint a very different picture. Take the graph of partisan identification for instance; over the last few decades, young voters have not identified with the Democratic party in substantially higher numbers than voters overall. Even conservatism had its moment among young voters in the 1980's. Yet with the end of the Reagan presidency, young voters shifted toward liberalism. This ideological shift did not play out into actual partisan identification in a meaningful way until 2006 and 2008.

Another bit of conventional wisdom I hear from my fellow Republicans about the youth vote is that they need to vote Democratic twice before they are "locked in for life", supporting the notion that there is still time to turn the tide among this generation. Unfortunately, given that the shift began in 2006 and not 2008, for many voters the GOP may simply be too late. For the rest, if the Republican Party does not take immediate action to repair its brand, this generation may exhibit similarly low levels of Republican identification for years to come.

Big deal. We'll see what happens when it happens. The GOP will change when it needs to change. They're out of congressional power for what, 4 years and administrative power for just over 100 days - and we're sealing their coffin? How ridiculous can we be about things?

[a completely inoffensive name]

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

Lol at the drop after 88, looks like the first Bush totally ****** it up for the conservative movement.

[Xiahou]

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

And yet, the Battleground poll from August 2008 still said 60% of the country considered itself very or somewhat conservative vs 36% very or somewhat liberal....