A Problem of Shrinkage

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

C) A hypocrite? lol, please explain.

Bridge to Nowhere, also for a so-called fiscal conservative alaska gets a whole lot of government welfare

[seireikhaan]

You really should learn to take a joke. :P

BusHitler.

So why the difference? Could it be because the media tells us what to think of each? :P

You should try listening to other media besides the media telling you about the media brainwashing everyone into following the media.

A) By saying that she is an idiot for disagreeing with you on the origins of the world, you are calling everyone who believes in Creationism an idiot (me included).

Oh dear...

[Lemur]

Anybody who wants to debate creationism is encouraged to start another thread. I'm still interested to hear opinions about (a) whether we are in danger of becoming a one-party state, and (b) if not, why not.

[Don Corleone]

In danger of becoming a one party state? I think we're there. Most Americans look to the government to solve all of their problems for them. Few if any show any sort of self-confidence to address their own problems themselves. R or D, we have consistently ceded freedom and liberty, in the hopes that whoever was in office would "Just make all the bad stuff go away". We're sheep, and we've gotten what we deserve.

If your question is whether the Democrats are approaching a permanent majority? Again, with the way the media editorializes on politics, and presents current events in ways that would make Pravda blush, the answer is a resounding yes. What's more, I don't see much hope for the fiscally conservative wing of the Democratic party, the Blue Dog Democrats.

Or haven't you heard about Accountability Now and Campaign for America's Future, two groups who are dedicated to targeting Democrats in primaries that "aren't liberal enough". Looks like your big tent is getting a little snug there too.

[Spino]

Haven't young people almost always been liberal?

Yes, this is reflected in my own generation (Generation X) which, as I recall, were decidedly more liberal in our youth. As we grew older, we grew more conservative. The Baby Boomers are the one generation that bucked the trend in that they still possess a modest liberal bias even as the eldest of their ranks passes from middle to old age.

It remains to be seen how long Generation Y will remain solidly liberal. Reagan exerted enormous influence on my generation not simply because he was so sunny and optimistic (that will only get you so far) but because he brought positive, tangible results with him shortly after entering office. It remains to be seen whether Obama can actually deliver on the hype and his promises. Given that Obama's answer is to tax, borrow and spend irresponsibly, essentially the same position as his predecessor (albeit taken to obscene heights) and current Congressional peers then I think it's safe to say the popularity and degree of satisfaction his presidency brings won't come remotely close to emulating Reagan's.

One thing for sure, the Generation Y'ers that are so adamantly in favor of Obama are the most poorly educated & equipped generation to come along in a long time. I don't have much love or respect for my generation but when I see these young 'uns going about their daily business of recklessly pushing themselves needlessly into debt by living way above their means and acting like overgrown children who happen to have jobs, (depleted) bank accounts and 401Ks I wonder what the hell they're going to be like when they smash into reality and are forced to abandon their pursuit of la vida loca. So we'll see how their ideological position changes when more of them settle down, have kids, are confronted with piles of bills and mortgages to pay and... yes, grow old. They may just richochet hard to the right or... there's a good chance that, given their lack of connection to a generation reared in a culture that emphasized moderation and responsbility, will push the country even further to the left. Out of their inability to deal with even the basic challenges of life I can easily see Gen Y'ers turning to government to provide all the answers.

[Xiahou]

Anybody who wants to debate creationism is encouraged to start another thread. I'm still interested to hear opinions about (a) whether we are in danger of becoming a one-party state, and (b) if not, why not.

Personally, I'm all for letting Democrats have absolute control. The sooner they get to screw things up, the sooner people can get disgusted with them and the sooner we can be rid of them. I'd rather have people like Specter or Snowe in office as Democrats than Republicans.

Being "moderate" and not having any driving principles behind them is what got the GOP thrown out of power. They came to power with the Contract with America and were helped by the complacency of the Democrats at the time. However, with disappointing speed, members of the GOP quickly abandoned their principles and became more interested in pandering and feathering their own nests than in following up on the principles that got them the majority in the first place. An unfortunate side-effect of the "contract" was that the most principled members of the GOP left office by self-limiting their terms in office as they all supposedly agreed to (see Pat Toomey).

In 1998, Toomey ran for the 15th District seat being vacated by incumbent Paul McHale against state Senator and future Allentown Mayor Roy C. Afflerbach. Toomey successfully flipped the seat from the Democratic McHale and won by an unexpectedly wide ten-point margin. He may have been helped by Governor Tom Ridge's landslide reelection victory.

Toomey was reelected two more times by relatively comfortable margins. While the 15th has historically been a Democratic district, it has a fairly strong tinge of social conservatism.

Toomey did not run for reelection to his House seat in 2004, fulfilling a pledge that he had signed in 1998 to only serve three terms.[3]

As I bemoaned during the Bush years, people like the RSC- the true Republican conservatives, were dismissed and even mocked by the party establishment, jokingly referring to them as the "minority" party since, according to them, that's what the party would become if their principles were put into legislation. Well, the RSC clearly didn't get it's way- and guess what happened?

I fully expect that after a number of years, the pendulum will again swing the other way and the GOP will be back in power again on a platform of limited government.... sadly, it's also just as likely that they'll quickly betray those principles again too. History repeats itself....

[drone]

One thing for sure, the Generation Y'ers that are so adamantly in favor of Obama are the most poorly educated & equipped generation to come along in a long time. I don't have much love or respect for my generation but when I see these young 'uns going about their daily business of recklessly pushing themselves needlessly into debt by living way above their means and acting like overgrown children who happen to have jobs, (depleted) bank accounts and 401Ks I wonder what the hell they're going to be like when they smash into reality and are forced to abandon their pursuit of la vida loca. So we'll see how their ideological position changes when more of them settle down, have kids, are confronted with piles of bills and mortgages to pay and... yes, grow old. They may just richochet hard to the right or... there's a good chance that, given their lack of connection to a generation reared in a culture that emphasized moderation and responsbility, will push the country even further to the left. Out of their inability to deal with even the basic challenges of life I can easily see Gen Y'ers turning to government to provide all the answers.

Get off my lawn!

Maybe I'm just getting old, but I pretty much agree here. Too spoiled, too attached to some alternative reality.

Will the GOP be able financially to contest seriously for House and Senate seats? If they run Palin in 2012, it could very well be the end of the Republican party.

[Xiahou]

If they run Palin in 2012, it could very well be the end of the Republican party.

I'm ambivalent towards Palin. I think she took a terrible beating on the McCain ticket. Part of it was certainly due to her inexperience, but much of it I also blame on the ineptitude of the McCain campaign. I also think the enthusiasm with which she was ripped in the new coverage was pretty astonishing too.

Regardless, she now has a very deep hole to dig herself out of. If she comes back in 2012 and is extremely polished, runs a perfect campaign and is able to repair her image- great, she would deserve to win the primary. However, if she's still rough around the edges and makes too many missteps, then she'll lose- and in that case, good. If she runs, she'll start out as damaged goods- and if she can overcome that, she'll probably have earned the nomination.

[Lemur]

In danger of becoming a one party state? I think we're there. Most Americans look to the government to solve all of their problems for them. Few if any show any sort of self-confidence to address their own problems themselves.

I think this is overly pessimistic. Just looking around me, the vast majority of people I know work for a living. The only person I know on public assistance is a state-certified paranoid schitzophrenic who has to take medicine or the voices start again. And in his case, I don't see why the minimal support he gets is a bad thing. Would we rather he were on the streets, unmedicated, defecating in his hand and screaming about demons?

Anyway, if you're going to argue that the vast majority of Americans are welfare-suckling statists who can't make their own way, it would be helpful if you provided some sort of backup.

[Spino]

Personally, I'm all for letting Democrats have absolute control. The sooner they get to screw things up, the sooner people can get disgusted with them and the sooner we can be rid of them. I'd rather have people like Specter or Snowe in office as Democrats than Republicans.

Ugh. The problem with this approach is once you pass a bill or create a government program, department or entity it's incredibly hard to get rid of it unless you can achieve a similarly solid majority... and possess the political will to take a legislative axe to the offending branches. The Dems with a non-filibusterable majority are going to be downright scary, in many cases far worse than what we saw during the last 8 years. Better buckle up... and buy a damn good buttplug...

I fully expect that after a number of years, the pendulum will again swing the other way and the GOP will be back in power again on a platform of limited government.... sadly, it's also just as likely that they'll quickly betray those principles again too. History repeats itself....

Agreed.

[Don Corleone]

Anyway, if you're going to argue that the vast majority of Americans are welfare-suckling statists who can't make their own way, it would be helpful if you provided some sort of backup.

For starters, let's look at the public demand for:

-the stimulus package
-subsidized home ownership
-universal healthcare
-government renogotiating debt contracts (mortgages, credit cards, etcetera)

In other words, the public is looking for socialism. Pleading for it. Demanding it. We don't say we are, we claim to all be "hard-working, do-it-ourselfers". But when push comes to shove, what's our answer? Beg the government to solve our problems for us.

Hell, just look at gas going over $2.50/gallon. What's the average reaction in the street? A whiny: The government ought to do something about this...

[a completely inoffensive name]

I wish we had just listened to George Washington and not had political parties in the first place.

[Spino]

I wish we had just listened to George Washington and not had political parties in the first place.

It's a nice thought but it doesn't jibe well with human nature. Human beings are naturally very hierarchical, tribal animals. We have a marked tendency to draw lines where none exist. Such is the lot of primates.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Why don't you just become like Canadians? They have that cheesy notion that that anyone can just buckle up and make an honest living, while at the same time being sort of socialist.

[Aemilius Paulus]

I wish we had just listened to George Washington and not had political parties in the first place.

You like one party-system ? Go to Russia then!! We may have different parties, but only Putin's United Russia holds any power. jk. But they are pretty powerful.

[a completely inoffensive name]

You like one party-system ? Go to Russia then!! We may have different parties, but only Putin's United Russia holds any power. jk. But they are pretty powerful.

What? I said I didn't want any parties whatsoever.

[Lemur]

For what it's worth, I'm clearly not the only person thinking about this.

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows the depth of the party's problems. Just 21 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans. That's the lowest since the fall of 1983, when just 19 percent identified themselves as Republicans. Party identification does fluctuate with events. But as a snapshot indicator, the latest figures highlight the impact of Obama's opening months on the Republican Party. From a high-water mark of 35 percent in the fall of 2003, Republicans have slid steadily to their present state of affairs. It's just not as cool to be a Republican as it once was.

The Republicans have many demographic challenges as they plot their comeback. Obama has attracted strong support from young voters and Latinos -- two keys to the future for both parties and once part of the GOP's calculation for sustaining themselves in power. Suburban voters have moved toward the Democrats. Specter can see that problem acutely in the suburbs around his home in Philadelphia home. Obama is also holding a solid advantage among independents, the proxy measure for the center or swing portion of the electorate.

Reihan Salam, co-author of "Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save America," said this week that the danger for Republicans is to believe they now represent a vast, silent majority that is waiting to reassert itself. A louder voice from a smaller cadre of supporters is not the answer, he warned. That will just prevent Republicans from reassessing their old agenda, developing new ideas and once again learning to reach out broadly. [...]

Sixty percent of the country trusts Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future -- but just 21 percent trust Republicans in Congress.

Despite their solid opposition to the president's economic and budgetary policies, Republicans in Congress have seen this trust quotient decline eight points since January. A CBS News-New York Times poll found that 70 percent of Americans believe Republicans have opposed those policies for political reasons, rather than because GOP lawmakers genuinely believe the policies are bad for the economy.

[Marshal Murat]

. A CBS News-New York Times poll found that 70 percent of Americans believe Republicans have opposed those policies for political reasons, rather than because GOP lawmakers genuinely believe the policies are bad for the economy.
I wonder how the questions were phrased...

I think that reveals two key things concerning public views of Republicans and politicians in general. Few seriously believe that the Republicans have an ideological conflict with passing big budgets, and some no doubt do have conflicts with passing big budgets. The public is so cynical as to believe this is a purely political move, and it is, to an extent but it's also an affirmation of some Republicans that they don't believe that the budget it the right idea. They are actually sticking to conservative principles in some form or another.

The Republicans can claim a youth vote just as easily as Obama did. The youth aren't going to always going to swing one way, so if the Republicans can sell it right they could take in the youth vote. Besides, Obama is a President, and like all Presidents after two terms we will tire of him. Besides, no one has ever maintained serious control of Congress (filibuster proof Senate and House majority) during a favorable Presidency.
The Republicans need to be able to embrace Schwarzenegger (California) and Crist (Florida), and get their followers to do so. They are fiscally conservative but they're open on social issues, and that's where Republicans need to moderate, move back to close-center at least.

[Lemur]

Marshal Murat, I suspect that a fiscally conservative, socially moderate Repub party would be a force to be reckoned with. But how to accomplish such a thing without a revolt from the social conservatives/religious right is beyond my tiny lemur brain's capacity.

I wonder how the questions were phrased...

A worthwhile question. Here's the WSJ/NBC poll (PDF warning). Here's the NYT/CBS poll he's referencing.

[Marshal Murat]

Subliminal messaging.

[ICantSpellDawg]

8 Years of a Democratic House, Senate and Administration will do more for the Republican cause than anything the GOP could ever do for itself.

Democrats would be nowhere without GWB.

[Xiahou]

People have been digging up some rather amusing things about Specter in light of his party switch....

Like his speech after Jim Jeffords aligned with the Democrats:

How should these issues be handled by the Senate for the future? I intend to propose a rule change which would preclude a future recurrence of a Senator's change in parties, in midsession, organizing with the opposition, to cause the upheaval which is now resulting.

I guess he's now pretty happy that his rule was never adopted.

Then there's this video he made in support of a GOP challenger in a House election where he warned how letting the Democrats get any more seats could be dangerous to the country.

And here's an interview he gave just last month where he denied that he was switching parties, again citing the importance of keeping Democrats in check. Of course, all of the above goes out the window when his reelection is on the line.

My favorite part of his speech today was how he said he was changing parties because he didn't want his time in the Senate to be judged by Pennsylvania Republicans. Of course, he didn't mind us judging him for the 30yrs that we reelected him- it's only when he may not get reelected that we're suddenly beneath him.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Gentlemen,

I have removed the off-topic and frankly snarky tangent on creationism. Please ensure it does not try to adapt to the new environment otherwise I shall be forced to make you extinct.

[CountArach]

Check the polling for the thirty-and-under crowd. If that doesn't make you sit up and take notice, nothing will. Examples (and this is just me doing some sampling; I'm sure CountArch could illustrate the point far better):

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

[Spino]

8 Years of a Democratic House, Senate and Administration will do more for the Republican cause than anything the GOP could ever do for itself.

Democrats would be nowhere without GWB.

So true. The Dems ought to erect a statute of GWB in the DNC headquarters.

With the Democrats having a solid lock on Congress and the White House this is shaping up to be a repeat of the Carter years. Dobbs posted some House & Senate numbers last night and it's 1976 - 1979 all over again, complete with a filibuster proof 60 seat lock in the Senate.

The big question now is who will be the one to issue the rally cry for conservatives?

[Spino]

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

The Achilles heel of the youth vote is that despite their noise and excitement the youngsters never turn out in large numbers to vote. This recent election didn't see the explosive youth turnout the media and DNC kept insisting would happen.

What will be important is whether these kiddies stay true to the liberal causes the older they get. The fact that so many of them are overwhelmingly liberal means they could wind up being like the Baby Boomers, forever liberal... albeit less so as they hit their golden years.

[a completely inoffensive name]

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

Lol at the drop after 88, looks like the first Bush totally ****** it up for the conservative movement.

[seireikhaan]

The Achilles heel of the youth vote is that despite their noise and excitement the youngsters never turn out in large numbers to vote. This recent election didn't see the explosive youth turnout the media and DNC kept insisting would happen.

What will be important is whether these kiddies stay true to the liberal causes the older they get. The fact that so many of them are overwhelmingly liberal means they could wind up being like the Baby Boomers, forever liberal... albeit less so as they hit their golden years.

Methinks the baby boomers were plenty conservative in their younger days. When one stands to benefit from government handouts, it is rather interesting what it can do to their ideology.

However, I don't see any Republican being the rallying cry in '12. The gov'nuh from New Mexico that CR linked to seems like the most qualified person I've seen yet, however he has pretty much no press and will have to really storm the scene. And he may be too libertarian for the social conservatives that he'll need to win over to get the Republican nomination, particularly if their battle cry continues to get increasingly shrill.

[CountArach]

The Achilles heel of the youth vote is that despite their noise and excitement the youngsters never turn out in large numbers to vote. This recent election didn't see the explosive youth turnout the media and DNC kept insisting would happen.

This is a trend that has been reversing itself over the last 3 elections. There is still a lot of inequality in terms of voter turnout. What I find interesting about that article is the effect that education on voting patterns - a more educated citizenry is genuinely more engaged.

Lol at the drop after 88, looks like the first Bush totally ****** it up for the conservative movement.

In the article this is explained largely by the election of Bill Clinton rather than Bush I. The idea of a young man being elected rather than another old guy was quite appealing I would imagine.

[Xiahou]

You're absolutely right. Here's a graph that illustrates the liberal-leanings of the youth vote even better (Compared to the nation overall):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This and other similar graphs and data samples from this Conservative GOP Analyst. She has written a lot of other stuff regarding the future of the GOP in terms of raw data here.

And yet, the Battleground poll from August 2008 still said 60% of the country considered itself very or somewhat conservative vs 36% very or somewhat liberal....