Iranian Elections

[DemonArchangel]

The elections were certainly rigged.

[CountArach]

The elections were certainly rigged.

Sauce?

[DemonArchangel]

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

[FactionHeir]

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

So how did the reformist before Ahmedinejad get elected please?

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

What's the deal with the internet and text-messaging outages and the shenanigans with the reform campaign websites being taken down?

[Scurvy]

I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

Having said that, it seems the result was unexpected, partly in Ahmadinejad winning, but the extent and areas he won through. Opposition also claim the state was against them in terms of coverage and campaign marches, which has more credibility imo. It will be interesting to see what happens.

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

It is suspicious that opposition election moniters were not allowed to function. Was there any international monitering?

[Lemur]

I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

-edit-

And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.

[Ice]

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

-edit-

And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.

I believe it's time for another revolution when the government starts fixing votes, although it doesn't really matter who is president is when the Supreme Leader makes all the calls. This does make it easier for him to rule though.

[CountArach]

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.

While I don't now doubt that the votes were rigged, at least to a certain degree (The coup would hint at that), however Nate has disspelled that graph by showing the US had an almost exact correlation.

[Ice]

Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

Read between the lines. By allowing reformist candidates to stand, the people were given the illusion that they actually had a choice (this applies to presidency in general)

[Viking]

Haha - taking the fight back

[KukriKhan]

Sauce?

Gravy. :)
There are rumblings in the Iranian expat community here, that their votes were not, and won't be, counted. This is anecdotal from my friend/neighbor, 20 years here from Tehran.