Iranian Elections

[Scurvy]

I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

Having said that, it seems the result was unexpected, partly in Ahmadinejad winning, but the extent and areas he won through. Opposition also claim the state was against them in terms of coverage and campaign marches, which has more credibility imo. It will be interesting to see what happens.

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

It is suspicious that opposition election moniters were not allowed to function. Was there any international monitering?

[Lemur]

I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

-edit-

And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.

[Ice]

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

-edit-

And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.

I believe it's time for another revolution when the government starts fixing votes, although it doesn't really matter who is president is when the Supreme Leader makes all the calls. This does make it easier for him to rule though.

[CountArach]

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.

While I don't now doubt that the votes were rigged, at least to a certain degree (The coup would hint at that), however Nate has disspelled that graph by showing the US had an almost exact correlation.

[Lemur]

Nate has disspelled that graph by showing the US had an almost exact correlation.

Well, I'm not going to argue with Nate Silver, a guy who has probably forgotten more about statistical math than I ever learned. So apologies for reproducing a misleading graph; my bad.

But the vote was rigged.

[CountArach]

But the vote was rigged.

Yeah I don't think there is too much doubt about that at this point. It will be interesting to see how the Iranian people themselves deal with this - it seems most reformists and the youth are willing to be quite vocally opposed to the whole 'coup' for the moment. I doubt these tensions will be dispelled quickly.

[Crazed Rabbit]

While I don't now doubt that the votes were rigged, at least to a certain degree (The coup would hint at that), however Nate has disspelled that graph by showing the US had an almost exact correlation.

Or not. He's comparing the graph of Iranian results to a graph of results from random US states - not the order the states and their tallies were reported.

I'm not sure exactly what Iran used to determine the votes they reported in successive waves. But it seems quite unlikely they would report them in the same manner Mr. Silver used. So he didn't really show the US had exact correlation, because he used random states.

Of course, this analysis uses poll closing times and does have an almost exact correlation.

But I don't know about Iranian regional politics; perhaps there are reasons that regional waves of votes would not be like the US. After all, the first wave of closing times for our election included New England and the Southeast states, which are rather varied. Perhaps in Iran the regions reporting votes at the same time would not be like a random sample. So in this, being like the US reveals it as fraud. Though that's speculation.

In more interesting news: Tweets from Iran.

Andrew Sullivan has lots of info.

CR

[CountArach]

Thanks for those links CR.

Lots of video and photos here:
http://iranelection.posterous.com/

EDIT: Police beating protestors:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=40c_1244915876 - This sickens me.

[rasoforos]

Ok now that we provided enough unfounded and circumstantial evidence to convince ourselves that the vote was rigged ( 'Evidence' apply to and that could easily be used to support that almost every election in western countries was rigged)...


...perhaps we should consider something more sinister. Have we been falling victims of our own demagoguing practices? Can you disprove that the western media, through planed action (improbable) or sheer wishful thinking (quite possible), have given us an overly wrong and misshapen idea or current Iranian politics?

I for once laugh at the irony that we are so critical of Iran while, its neighbouring countries (good friends of the west) are on par or much worse both on political and religious grounds.

If Iran was 'the good guys' and Saudi,UAE,Pakistan,Iraq,Jordan were the 'bad guys' then we would probably be talking about how they should follow Iran's example and set up democratic process (as rigged as it may be)

Iran had a reformist government and we killed it by isolating it. Now good old Mahmood is achieving results through brute force politics. I am not surprised he won the elections.

[CountArach]

Ok now that we provided enough unfounded and circumstantial evidence to convince ourselves that the vote was rigged ( 'Evidence' apply to and that could easily be used to support that almost every election in western countries was rigged)...

You mean the link provided earlier about the head of Iran's electoral oversight commission declaring the result invalid isn't proof enough?

[Lemur]

In more interesting news: Tweets from Iran.

Andrew Sullivan has lots of info.

Yeah, the MSM is really dropping the ball on this one. And Drudge has a headline up about Obama and bulldozers (remember when he drove the news?).

Check out HuffPo's coverage, they're surprisingly on the ball this time.

-edit-

LiveLeak is doing itself proud as well. More video of what's going on in Iran than I've seen anywhere else.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Yeah, the MSM is really dropping the ball on this one. And Drudge has a headline up about Obama and bulldozers (remember when he drove the news?).

Check out HuffPo's coverage, they're surprisingly on the ball this time.

-edit-

LiveLeak is doing itself proud as well. More video of what's going on in Iran than I've seen anywhere else.

Ya, Drudge is disappointing. Good on HuffPo and Sullivan.

It seems like a revolution may be going on. Let's hope they're successful.

CR

[Beskar]

While I don't now doubt that the votes were rigged, at least to a certain degree (The coup would hint at that), however Nate has disspelled that graph by showing the US had an almost exact correlation.

Does that mean the U.S. election was rigged too?

Can I say yes, please?

There was always the fact that Al Gore won the 2000 election as well, but didn't get it.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Can I say yes, please?

Um - You mean you think Obama didn't win?

Anyways, from Sullivan a fascinating video of a protesting crowd overturning a police motorcycle and then giving water to a weary young riot policeman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSECAvBTanQ

CR

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

There was always the fact that Al Gore won the 2001 election as well, but didn't get it.

He didn't win. Please lefties, get over it. We don't like Bush either, but he won fair and square.

[Beskar]

He didn't win. Please lefties, get over it. We don't like Bush either, but he won fair and square.

Actually, the Florida issue was never resolved, Bush only won as Gore withdrew, not because he actually won the state.

[Hooahguy]

give it a rest.
i have a saying: stop being a about the past and start being a about the future.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Actually, the Florida issue was never resolved, Bush only won as Gore withdrew, not because he actually won the state.

So if a candidate withdraws and concedes victory, what happens then?

[Ice]

Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

Read between the lines. By allowing reformist candidates to stand, the people were given the illusion that they actually had a choice (this applies to presidency in general)

[Viking]

Haha - taking the fight back

[rotorgun]

Haha - taking the fight back

"Looks like this is the end!" It's time for Underdog to make his appearance, or maybe a Brad Pit type of maneuver as portrayed in Troy.

[Lemur]

A valuable analysis:

But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.

[KukriKhan]

So it's the Guardian Council (12 guys; 6 clerics + 6 lawyers) who decide the validity of the election?

Any word on their take yet? I've heard that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has pronounced Ahmadinejad the winner, but does his word count?

BBC-World reports noise in the streets still at 0130 in the morning.

[Hax]

Things are going rough; Mehdi Karroubi (the other reformist guy), Mousavi have been placed under house arrest and the brother and sister-in-law of former president Mohammed Khatami have been arrested.

[Hosakawa Tito]

So it's the Guardian Council (12 guys; 6 clerics + 6 lawyers) who decide the validity of the election?

Any word on their take yet? I've heard that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has pronounced Ahmadinejad the winner, but does his word count?

BBC-World reports noise in the streets still at 0130 in the morning.

His word means any protestors will be fighting against the full might of the Iranian State.

This vote rigging, if true, sure was a clumsy affair. However, if done on the fly without time for much forethought certainly points to how out of touch the leadership is with their people. They'll bust some heads and that will be that.