I don't think it was an accident, there has been extensive correspondence between Serbia and Russia mentioning the need for an incident in the Balkans since 1890, and the evidence that the Serbian government was actually behind the kill is kinda hard to refute. I think Russia used Serb nationalism as a crowbar to wreck the Austra-Hungarian monarchy, and yes provoke war. Problem with this, Russia wasn't ready for was their railroads were underdeveloped, but we are dealing with radicals and Paschtich is known to have said to the Russian ambassador that it was already too late.
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