Small Mafia Game XCOM Mafia [Concluded] [Archive] - Page 8

View Full Version : Small Mafia Game XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9

Csargo

06-29-2017, 04:51

So, having some medical/real life issues right now, but since it looks like we die without our role showing, I'm going to claim.

I'm town bulletproof, and 99% sure I was the kill on N1. Wolves know they shot me, and there may or may not be a second component to my role. Maybe it's my own setup design leaking through, but I consider it pretty unlikely to have a full doc + bulletproof both in the setup, so in case they decided to shoot me again tonight wanted to give out the setup info I had.

My first post of game was an attempt to dumbtell a power role, I planned to role play as a newb derp to bait roleblocks/night kills, but I got sucked into the game a bit and it became pretty obvious it wasn't serious.

I'm not fully caught up, and won't be caught up anytime soon (maybe at night, or maybe not until next day phase, assuming everything goes alright), but I'm pretty sure Champ is a wolf, and I'd bet quite a lot on one between El Barto and Manasi, leaning towards the former. I'd also bet a fair bit on there being 1+ in the inactives because I have a lot of town reads on fairly active players - that makes Autolycus/BSmith targets to keep a close eye on.

I think Pizza is town, I think Novice is town, I think Cuth is town, I think CSargo is town, I think Fred is town, I think Sooh is town.

Winston and DP are the lightest of town reads.

Champ
Manasai
El Barto
Autolycus
BSmith
Logic
Montmorency

That's my PoE, with some obvious pairs not knowingly aligned in there.

Vote: Champ in spirit, but not comfortable placing a real vote without having fully caught up.

Won't be around rest of day, glglgl.

boop

El Barto

06-29-2017, 04:58

day end at 11:30 manasi

i have to go soon, won't be back for eod
Another one who warns in advance of his absences and tells Manasi what she should already know.

I'll do better searches and so on tomorrow. Tonight I'm destroyed, it's past midnight and it was a very long day.

El Barto

06-29-2017, 04:59

You also realize that I voted novice right?
As did Logic.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 05:03

You didn't respond to my first one though.

How does it make sense for me to vote Dp101 D1 in that situation?

It's not a good question. If both DP and Jowy are town but you had a standing case against DP, why wouldn't you try to get DP lynched? It certainly doesn't appear to cost you.

You continue to put a huge amount of weight onto Fredwood's half a paragraph about BSmith, that amounts to exactly what everyone already knew about BSmith's behavior.

I don't put weight on it - I put weight on the connection between that post and that wagon, your connection to it, and the overarching environment of a Manasi wagon with novice not a close second. As I formulated, there are indeed situations in which these connections clear you and Fred, for instance when both novice and BSmith are scum or when just BSmith is scum. If novice is scum or especially if both BSmith and novice are town, I don't see how you can claim the events of D3 don't look more or less bad for you.

Sure they could, but this is conspiracy theory levels of connection that you're putting forward imo.

That's...Mafia. :rolleyes:

Indeed it is a conspiracy when scum design a counterwagon to save a partner - doesn't make it uncommon or an unviable speculation.

There's more of a connection between Cuth/Dp than me and Fredwood.

On D3? Any other day? What's that?

You've also subtracted 3 people from the equation, with little explanation as to why, other than they look good and don't fit together.

3 people? I counted Logic and Winston as wildcards because it's difficult to form a Mafia core around them, while the two most interesting and productive pairings were what I investigated and how the rest, or what else, fell into place around them. The other 5 players were independently looking better than Winston and Logic, though auto least of that pack due to lack of content.

You also realize that I voted novice right?

Crucially, you had promised to vote anyone over Pizza. Would have been much worse for you to do otherwise.

Csargo

06-29-2017, 05:29

It's not a good question. If both DP and Jowy are town but you had a standing case against DP, why wouldn't you try to get DP lynched? It certainly doesn't appear to cost you.

I was tied with Jowy 3-3 when I switched to Dp, so why would I leave it up to a coin flip? That doesn't make sense for me to move as scum.

I don't put weight on it - I put weight on the connection between that post and that wagon, your connection to it, and the overarching environment of a Manasi wagon with novice not a close second. As I formulated, there are indeed situations in which these connections clear you and Fred, for instance when both novice and BSmith are scum or when just BSmith is scum. If novice is scum or especially if both BSmith and novice are town, I don't see how you can claim the events of D3 don't look more or less bad for you.

They'd look bad for everyone on the wagon. I said Manasi looked bad D2, but backed off of it because she voted Dp and I'm smitten. You're manufacturing a connection that barely exists, while ignoring everyone else that was on the wagon. I never said it wouldn't look bad, I'm saying you're postulating a connection that can't be argued against, while saying 3 others don't make sense as a possibility.

That's...Mafia. :rolleyes:

Indeed it is a conspiracy when scum design a counterwagon to save a partner - doesn't make it uncommon or an unviable speculation.

Indeed. You've left out Cuth as the initiator though.

On D3? Any other day? What's that?

They voted together D2-3, boom.

3 people? I counted Logic and Winston as wildcards because it's difficult to form a Mafia core around them, while the two most interesting and productive pairings were what I investigated and how the rest, or what else, fell into place around them. The other 5 players were independently looking better than Winston and Logic, though auto least of that pack due to lack of content.

I'm talking about the people on the BSmith wagon.

Crucially, you had promised to vote anyone over Pizza. Would have been much worse for you to do otherwise.

I also said I wasn't voting outside of novice, Logic, Manasi, Barto today iirc.

Basically what you're saying is you think me and Fredwood look the worst on the BSmith wagon, and you like everyone else. There's no real connection, except the one in your head.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 05:41

I was tied with Jowy 3-3 when I switched to Dp, so why would I leave it up to a coin flip? That doesn't make sense for me to move as scum.

?

I think you are talking about something different. I was drawing attention to Pizza's evaluation on potential cooperation between Manasi and Csargo, instantiated by the mutual vote onto DP at the time (as several noted you would have been safer alone by staying on Jowy). Pizza also commented on other interactions or allusions between you two, but tended to conclude (at that point in time) that Manasi-Csargo would be too "goat-y".

They'd look bad for everyone on the wagon.

The wagon was you, Fred, and Cuth. So you're saying I should give more weight to Cuth's potential as a partner to one of you?

I said Manasi looked bad D2, but backed off of it because she voted Dp and I'm smitten.

What does this have to do with anything?

You're manufacturing a connection that barely exists, while ignoring everyone else that was on the wagon.

Now I'm really confused. What are you talking about here?

They voted together D2-3, boom.

That's a much weaker connection and you know it. Stop screwing around.

I'm talking about the people on the BSmith wagon.

So again with Cuth? As you know DP and I were last minute votes, and I addressed the impact of the different scenarios on DP, which you should know if you read them.

Indeed. You've left out Cuth as the initiator though.

Fredwood was the first to bring it up in that part of day. He voted as soon as Cuth did.

I also said I wasn't voting outside of novice, Logic, Manasi, Barto today iirc.

Is that good?

Basically what you're saying is you think me and Fredwood look the worst on the BSmith wagon, and you like everyone else. There's no real connection, except the one in your head.

No I don't, I gave you specific situations and what it would look like for you and others. Either you are really confused or you are BSing me.

Dp101

06-29-2017, 05:51

Don't have the energy right now for anything more, but just a side note that Manasi's role basically confirms 4 scum, one of each class, so keep that in mind when making your teams.

Csargo

06-29-2017, 06:21

?

I think you are talking about something different. I was drawing attention to Pizza's evaluation on potential cooperation between Manasi and Csargo, instantiated by the mutual vote onto DP at the time (as several noted you would have been safer alone by staying on Jowy). Pizza also commented on other interactions or allusions between you two, but tended to conclude (at that point in time) that Manasi-Csargo would be too "goat-y".

Sure, we cooperated, but what did I stand to gain if I was scum? You seem to be looking at D3 in a vacuum, not the overall picture. Manasi is 100% scum, so I tied myself with Jowy to vote with my scum partner on Dp101. In what world does that make logical sense?

The wagon was you, Fred, and Cuth. So you're saying I should give more weight to Cuth's potential as a partner to one of you?

Why are you ignoring every other possibility? Bussing, offwagon, ect. Why is it focused on me and Fred? There's no point in arguing about this, because there are so many possibilities.

What does this have to do with anything?

I forgot Manasi flipped.

Now I'm really confused. What are you talking about here?

The bulk of your analysis was directed at me and Fred.

That's a much weaker connection and you know it. Stop screwing around.

Why? We don't know the alignment of novice. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

So again with Cuth? As you know DP and I were last minute votes, and I addressed the impact of the different scenarios on DP, which you should know if you read them.

Yeah. I saw.

Fredwood was the first to bring it up in that part of day. He voted as soon as Cuth did.

He made a general post about a bunch of different people, along with BSmith.

Is that good?

It shows that I'm flexible, and not afraid of blow back.

No I don't, I gave you specific situations and what it would look like for you and others. Either you are really confused or you are BSing me.

I just think your scope is very limited. I'm probably also confused.

Csargo

06-29-2017, 06:22

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 08:17

Manasi >> Bsmith >>> rest, could be scum hedging on the outcome especially if he expects a Dome between the two, but the center mass here is more revealing since it offers so much space to shift. I hope Winston can clarify his leans tonight.

Yeah, I'll be around for an hour or two before night ends to take a closer look.

So is novice scum or what?

Rereading him yesterday, I couldn't make much sense of his game as either alignment, which usually suggests town.

But his relative positioning is so bad here, and his flip will yield so much data, that I'm inclined to put him at the top of the lynch pile, even though the likes of BSmith and Logic come off more scummy.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 08:37

Sure, we cooperated, but what did I stand to gain if I was scum? You seem to be looking at D3 in a vacuum, not the overall picture. Manasi is 100% scum, so I tied myself with Jowy to vote with my scum partner on Dp101. In what world does that make logical sense?

First of all, you're describing the situation inaccurately.

This wagon formation always lynches a wolf.

Tally as of post 606:

Lynch votes
2 votes: Sooh (BSmith (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751655#post2053751655), Manasi (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752136#post2053752136))
2 votes: Champ (crimson_snow (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752056#post2053752056), Jowy (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752120#post2053752120))
2 votes: El Barto (Fredwood (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751947#post2053751947), Sooh (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752187#post2053752187))
2 votes: Csargo (Dp101 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751867#post2053751867), novice (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752110#post2053752110))
2 votes: Montmorency (Logic (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752145#post2053752145), Cuthillius (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752179#post2053752179))
2 votes: Jowy (Askthepizzaguy (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752029#post2053752029), Csargo (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752216#post2053752216))
1 votes: No Lynch (Montmorency (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751586#post2053751586))
1 votes: Dp101 (El Barto (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751865#post2053751865))
1 votes: Novice (autolycus (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751651#post2053751651))
1 votes: Manasi (Champ (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053751579#post2053751579))
1 votes: Logic (Winston Hughes (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751&p=2053752149#post2053752149))

Voting history:

It was a 6-way tie with at least 4 townies (Champ/GH and Jowy flipped, plus myself and Sooh). If you were the scum wagon of the lot, then Jowy voted you and Barto and Champ voted Jowy.

Official Tally as of #620

----

Day 1 ends in: tunnel snakes rule

----

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto, Champ)

3 Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy)

2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)

----

Not Voting: (everyone has voted :2thumbsup:)

Not Posting: (everyone has posted :2thumbsup:)

----

If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

Then you switched with Manasi (from Sooh) onto DP, and DP was pressured to self-pres onto Jowy.

You were already set for the round voting Jowy, and so switching to DP actually works at least as well - maybe better - when Manasi backing you up on the sudden switch onto DP was coordinated between partners as opposed to a random scum move by Manasi, which would also make less sense for her to do if it wasn't in conjunction with a partner. Recall that you had Pizza's absolute backing, and he was willing to lynch either Jowy or DP to protect you.

Second, it was D1.

I'm not going to hold it against you for misrepresenting EOD1, but you should drop the complaint now. You're not pristine, so stop taking umbrage when I present the most reasonable points only for the fact that they put you in a slightly negative light.

Why are you ignoring every other possibility? Bussing, offwagon, ect. Why is it focused on me and Fred? There's no point in arguing about this, because there are so many possibilities.

There are not many possibilities, and this is the likeliest one. Manasi wagon looks strong, Fred presents a case against BSmith but doesn't vote, Cuth comes out voting, Fred and Csargo immediately take advantage. If you really want I'll factor in a possible Cuth scum into all the scenarios, but the bottom line is that if BSmith flips town these events look bad for you and Fred individually, and open the possibility of a pairing. This isn't a remote possibility, this is basic wagon analysis and it's one of the most compelling arguments that can be made on the basis of the context. Of course, if Bsmith flips scum it looks very good for all three initiators of the BSmith wagon. Why is this so difficult to accept for you?

The bulk of your analysis was directed at me and Fred.

And novice and Bsmith. That's what I said. That's the point.

Why? We don't know the alignment of novice. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

Cuth/DP partnered with novice is not outside the realm of possibility, but I don't see why you would say that wrt the connection between Cuth and DP being stronger than the connection between you and Fred D3 when it doesn't have any relevance to that comparison? Again, I feel like you might have a different question and answer in mind than I do.

He made a general post about a bunch of different people, along with BSmith.

He said:

BSmith: His vote is the worst of anyone's for me. It doesn't feel right that a low poster would have that much of an impact on an outcome of a big lynch. It feels like the vote was being directed. It's too beneficially timed and beneficially scum to be made on his own when he hasn't been able to pay much attention to the game to this point and the Pizza v Novice debate was a very content heavy one. Could be an apology patsy vote. It wasn't last second but it did build the distribution to at least make a Pizza lynch more likely.

That's a pretty strong attack.

I just think your scope is very limited.

Only in the sense that I don't cover the entire game and every possible pairing because some players have higher priority than others. Not even Pizza would bother with that kind of analysis between a dozen players at once.

Sooh

06-29-2017, 13:20

Then you switched with Manasi (from Sooh) onto DP, and DP was pressured to self-pres onto Jowy.
Would this not suggest that DP is clean?

Csargo

06-29-2017, 15:09

Official Tally as of #620

----

Day 1 ends in: tunnel snakes rule

----

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto, Champ) - 1 Csargo = 3

3 Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy) = 3

2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)

----

Not Voting: (everyone has voted :2thumbsup:)

Not Posting: (everyone has posted :2thumbsup:)

----

If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

I'm tired of this argument, and I don't think it's leading anywhere useful. My entire point was i stood to gain nothing by switching. I increased my probability of being lynched, to vote with Manasi. Had Pizza not browbeat Dp into switching, it was a 50-50 shot I was going to be lynched D1. Had Dp not realized he was third, he wouldn't have switched. I'm not misrepresenting it, you're just not getting the point I guess. I'd never move there as scum.

I'm not going to continue to argue with you because I know how you are Monty, and I have no desire to keep this up. I don't see the point.

Csargo

06-29-2017, 15:13

Would this not suggest that DP is clean?

It doesn't seem like Dp was aware of the vote count because it was 3-3-2 with Dp having the latter. The cfd by Manasi makes him look squeaky clean though if that's what you're talking about.

Sooh

06-29-2017, 16:24

It doesn't seem like Dp was aware of the vote count because it was 3-3-2 with Dp having the latter. The cfd by Manasi makes him look squeaky clean though if that's what you're talking about.

Yeah.

Sooh

06-29-2017, 16:25

Monty? I have one wish. Can we leave Csargo until BSmith and Novice are resolved?

Csargo

06-29-2017, 17:45

I don't want a reprieve Sooh, if you think I'm scum then lynch me tomorrow.

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 18:01

Not much content to work with on BSmith. Both the frequency and style of his posting is similar to previous town games, but I can't find any recent scum games for comparison, and what he's shown here would not require any serious fakery to achieve.

Where he looks terrible is his votes. Cuth did make a good defence of novice, and pizzaparanoia is a well-documented effect, but that vote smacks of opportunism in the same way Manasi's did, and I feel like a townie BSmith wouldn't be so ready to lynch pizza before giving him a decent shot at catching scum here. Yesterday's events didn't show him in any better a light either, with the move onto Csargo in particular looking like nothing more than an attempt to shove someone else in the frame to save both him and Manasi.

He'd maybe look a touch better if novice flips town, but it still would be nowhere near clearing, and he'd probably still be in the top 2-3 suspects.

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 18:33

Logic getting an early townpoint off Manasi was what made me suspect the pair of them in the first place, and the fact that they straight ignored each other (and my suspicions) after that made me feel like I'd hit a nerve.

Only by the time that Manasi's pizza vote had put her squarely in the frame does that change at all, and even then it's all very mild, and nothing that seems at all likely to have contributed to suspicions against Manasi. Throw in the attempted counterwagon on Csargo, and it does not look good at all.

Where Logic does look better (than BSmith, at least) is on tone. I don't recall ever having seen him as scum, but there is a certain lightness about his posting that feels fairly townie. That, combined with the fact that he'll look far better if novice flips scum, is enough to keep him out of the lynch zone at this stage.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 18:38

Monty? I have one wish. Can we leave Csargo until BSmith and Novice are resolved?

Obbviously. To do otherwise would defeat the point of the analysis. :study:

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 18:50

Having successfully picked out all the scum on his short visit to the mafia championships, how glorious would it be if auto had managed to cast all three of his votes here against wrong-uns (novice, DP101, Manasi) as well?

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 19:11

Reread is occuring. I think Novice is slightly towny, but only slightly, and I already know he's capable of that kind of thing. Manasi seems more forced than normal, and the early comment about the difference between neutral and third-party makes me think some kinda anti-town third party role. I am terrible at reading spamposters however, which is why you won't see a Champ read in here. Logic was decent once he stopped spamming, but could do with more posts. Winston objectively towny with his jokey attitude, doesn't feel forced at all. Monty is Monty, I really don't know how to read him, at all. Maybe slight town for doing the same kinda snap read on me that he does every game (or at least, it felt like a snap read last time)? But he does that as scum as well, I dunno. Everyone else needs to post more.

Working through DP's iso, and the bolded jumped out as looking good for him. Not that DP is beyond distancing with his scumbuddies, but the type of shade thrown ('more forced than normal') and the third-party suggestion both seem more likely genuine than faked.

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 19:56

Dp101

06-29-2017, 20:00

Quick comparison with DP's D1 here and in his champs game shows strong similarities in tone and flow. This D1 lacked the longer analysis posts he periodically dropped over there, which could simply be down to him working harder in the champs game, but could equally suggest that he cared less about being townread in this one. Overall, he probably looks a tiny bit worse from the comparison, because it shows the general vibe here is something he can do as scum.

Oh, rest assured that I'm not even going to attempt to put in champs-levels of effort, with the thousand word readslists. Not sure if I should treat the similarities comment as a compliment on my scum game or a criticism of my current town game :D

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 20:02

Ah, now I see what Monty was talking about with Manasi and DP on D1.

Not going to bother reading the rest of his iso. Can't see Manasi bussing there.

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 20:03

Oh, rest assured that I'm not even going to attempt to put in champs-levels of effort, with the thousand word readslists. Not sure if I should treat the similarities comment as a compliment on my scum game or a criticism of my current town game :D

Let's go with 'both'. :P

Logic

06-29-2017, 20:11

This is a weird progression. You go from a nullish read to "a tad on the scummy side" which becomes "very suspicious" by the end of the post. Not to mention that the "tad on the scummy side" tell objectively isn't scummy. (But that is in Logic's derp range.)

After a re-read, something pings to me:
Now, it is entirely possible that novice has already been able to identify my trends, such as my derps, but from what I have derped about I don't think is significant enough to get that read, based on the single prior game in Pokemon, (and maybe from my D1 on French Rev, I don't recall if he was a player in that.)

Bottom Line: but I don't think I've done enough to establish a "derp" range to anyone living but Cuthillius, who has seen my derps in the Playground.

He's also left out the context of that quote:

I'm not going to read any of the game until the night phase, assuming I live that long. That's just something people are going to have to deal with. What's your actual stance on what I just laid out?
Now THIS i find a tad on the scummy side.

Why intentionally deprive yourself of information? If you are indeed town, that is all you have to work with. But a scum could easily get a summary from the wolf-chat, and be able to faux-try and point to a post like yours in the event any errors have been made.

Monty, I agree that GH is looking very suspicious.

I was null for GH's entry, until his claim that he wasn't going to read.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 20:35

Ah, now I see what Monty was talking about with Manasi and DP on D1.

Not going to bother reading the rest of his iso. Can't see Manasi bussing there.

Can't find that, what did I say?

Sooh

06-29-2017, 20:45

I don't want a reprieve Sooh, if you think I'm scum then lynch me tomorrow.

I'm not sure, and I would like to see more from you. You're in that gray muddled middle ground with Fred and Monty.

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 20:52

Can't find that, what did I say?

Ah, sorry, it was Sooh who said it. I mixed it up with what you said about DP on last eod.

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 20:56

And DP for deciding the tally more or less, I suppose.

What did you mean here?

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 21:13

What did you mean here?

Lol

Kind of dumb, but if you take DP's last-minute vote as "deciding" that Bsmith has fewer votes than Manasi ergo Manasi has more votes than Bsmith...

So nullify that.

(This seems to have been influenced by, but separate from, the notion that DP voted Bsmith as a reaction test (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152751-XCOM-Mafia-In-Play&p=2053753511&viewfull=1#post2053753511).)

Winston Hughes

06-29-2017, 21:20

:laugh4: I guess that makes it 1-1.

Zack

06-29-2017, 22:00

Night is over, do not post.

Zack

06-29-2017, 22:04

End of Night 3.

Sooh has been found dead. May she find all the balaten she wants in the next life.

https://i.imgur.com/A5uqwmx.png

Sooh was an ADVENT Trooper!

She was town!
novice has been poisoned. If he is not healed by the end of Night Four, he will die!

-------

It is now Day Four.

Voting ends in: tunnel snakes rule

-------

Living Players: 11

autolycus
BSmith
Csargo
Cuthillius
Dp101
El Barto
Fredwood
Logic
Montmorency
novice -- POISONED!
Winston Hughes

------

Dead Players: 6

Jowy - Faceless
crimson_snow - Muton
Askthepizzaguy - Sectoid
GeneralHankerchief - Sectoid
Manasi - Grenadier
Sooh - ADVENT Trooper

Zack

06-29-2017, 22:04

You can post now.

Make sure your PM inboxes are clear. Do not discuss this, obviously.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:12

Poison? Who dat?

Vote: BSmith

novice

06-29-2017, 22:21

Was that really necessary.

I'm the Avenger Pilot. Scum had better hurry if they want to call for evac.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:24

BTW

Advent* (Town) classes:

ADVENT Shieldbearer
ADVENT Stun Lancer
ADVENT Trooper x1

Alien** (Town) classes:

Codex
Faceless x1
Muton x1
Sectoid x2
Viper

@Cuthilius Tell us what you are plz, what class
Dp101 Explain some of the remaining roles, especially the Advent ones

I figure around 7 townies left give or take, so it may be likely that the classes we haven't seen yet (publicly) are out there.

*Leaving out big or elite units like Advent MEC or Officer
**Leaving out big or elite units like Andromedon, Archon, Avatar, Berserker, Chryssalid, Gatekeeper

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:25

Was that really necessary.

I'm the Avenger Pilot. Scum had better hurry if they want to call for evac.

So you claim to be scum?

http://xcom.wikia.com/wiki/Avenger_(XCOM_2)

novice

06-29-2017, 22:27

I have my own agenda.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:29

I have my own agenda.

Full reveal. You know I'm sympathetic to third parties.

Cuthillius

06-29-2017, 22:32

viper, quite obviously

Cuthillius

06-29-2017, 22:37

cuth
winston
dp
monty
csargo

relatively confident in all of above being town

monty
fred

above prooobably town?

?novice?

autolycus
el barto
logic
bsmith

at least two scum in above

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:41

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G5rfPISIwo

Dp101

06-29-2017, 22:46

Dp101 Explain some of the remaining roles, especially the Advent ones

I figure around 7 townies left give or take, so it may be likely that the classes we haven't seen yet (publicly) are out there.

*Leaving out big or elite units like Advent MEC or Officer
**Leaving out big or elite units like Andromedon, Archon, Avatar, Berserker, Chryssalid, Gatekeeper

Shieldbearer would most likely be some kinda bodyguard role, Stun Lancer might be a roleblocker, if not an outright vig. Codex I have no idea, they are rather weird. Not sure how a forced reloading of weapons would be modeled, and same with the teleporting and splitting. Viper is basically poision, no alternatives. Do you want me to try and figure out what the elites roles might be, if they are in the game?

Dp101

06-29-2017, 22:46

Was that really necessary.

I'm the Avenger Pilot. Scum had better hurry if they want to call for evac.

Well then, that's most certainly not on the list of roles I would expect. Most likely a traitor role of some kind.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:52

Shieldbearer would most likely be some kinda bodyguard role, Stun Lancer might be a roleblocker, if not an outright vig. Codex I have no idea, they are rather weird. Not sure how a forced reloading of weapons would be modeled, and same with the teleporting and splitting. Viper is basically poision, no alternatives. Do you want me to try and figure out what the elites roles might be, if they are in the game?

If you like. One hypothesis is that each or most of the classes are instantiated in pairs, one with abilities, one vanilla.

Montmorency

06-29-2017, 22:56

If you like. One hypothesis is that each or most of the classes are instantiated in pairs, one with abilities, one vanilla.

On the other hand, if Cuth did not poison novice, then we might have a second empowered Viper on our hands. So my hypothesis can't stand unmodified, unless Cuth claims.

Dp101

06-29-2017, 23:11

If you like. One hypothesis is that each or most of the classes are instantiated in pairs, one with abilities, one vanilla.

That doesn't make much sense to me, I feel that duplicated roles are more likely. Out of the elite roles that might actually be in the game, I feel that Archon is either a delayed vig or hider, depending on how the blazing pinions ability is interpreted. Chryssalid could be hider, or vig. All the others would probably translate to more powerful versions of confirmed roles, so those are probably the only other town. Of course, this is probably mostly wrong.

Logic

06-29-2017, 23:17

Hardclaim: Advent Trooper

novice

06-29-2017, 23:35

Full reveal. You know I'm sympathetic to third parties.

What's the point, I'm dead anyway.
I'll help whichever faction cures me.

Dp101

06-30-2017, 00:50

Is a mass roleclaim at all a good idea? I wouldn't be opposed to it, but I can never tell when one is a good or bad idea.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 00:55

Monty loves role claims, could be useful idk.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 01:05

For the present, who knows. Obviously Mafia can lie or misdirect, so the most useful prospect is getting townie claims or claims that can be verified in the near future.

So,

novice - 3P
Cuth - Viper
Logic - Advent Trooper

But listen, there's a problem - if novice isn't scum but neutral 3P, and we lynch Bsmith scum, then there should be 2 scum left. Who dat?

Here's what I propose:

1. BSmith final wagon of the day, necessary lynch; get your alternative pressure in while you can
2. BSmith full claim sooner than later
4. Others claim as they wish, prefer reveal of novice poisoner; I don't want to dictate an order of claims, too micro-managey
Dp101 XCom can (wield) poison, right? I believe you said so the other day.

Dp101

06-30-2017, 01:42

Dp101 XCom can (wield) poison, right? I believe you said so the other day.

Yup, via venom rounds, an item. I think it's unlikely though, as I would expect abilities to be tied to classes, and any class can use venom rounds.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 01:44

Yup, via venom rounds, an item. I think it's unlikely though, as I would expect abilities to be tied to classes, and any class can use venom rounds.

And only Vipers have a class ability to poison? Two separate 1-shot vigs is the logical conclusion, if it wasn't scum and we assume there isn't yet another 3P (this one with a killing ability).

Is Cuthillius sure he didn't do it?

autolycus

06-30-2017, 01:57

I'm going to vote: Fred. Bsmith is certainly not cleared in my book, but with his starting the Bsmith trend going, he and Bsmith aren't both scum (so lynching him would help me make up my mind on Bsmith), and he was my second choice yesterday and nothing's happened to change that.

On another note, my sister is getting into town from out of the country this evening, so I won't be active in the second half of the game day (from about 2 pm EDT tomorrow until some time on Sunday)

Csargo

06-30-2017, 02:12

After novice's poisoning and claim I'm not sure what to think.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 02:15

Cuthillius

06-30-2017, 02:17

And only Vipers have a class ability to poison? Two separate 1-shot vigs is the logical conclusion, if it wasn't scum and we assume there isn't yet another 3P (this one with a killing ability).

Is Cuthillius sure he didn't do it?

of course i did it

Dp101

06-30-2017, 02:18

On that note, if Bsmith is scum and novice flips 3P, lynch auto immediately.

I thought auto was spewed clear by Manasi?

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 02:20

I thought auto was spewed clear by Manasi?

Some things can't stand though, and a non-scum novice makes auto look weak. Pushing Fred over BSmith when Fred looks much better independently and is mostly cleared by scum Bsmith doesn't help things.

of course i did it

Thank balaten.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 02:21

Cuth is an odd night poisoner? Is that right?

Csargo

06-30-2017, 02:22

Or 2 shot?

Csargo

06-30-2017, 02:25

BSmith's iso is basically justifying/defending his vote on pizza, wagoning me, saying he'd def vote to save himself. What a great read.

Cuthillius

06-30-2017, 02:26

Cuth is an odd night poisoner? Is that right?

Or 2 shot?

nah

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 02:29

i literally claimed yes i poisoned him but it had no effect

:/

i'm sorry

i'm not going to respond to this any more tonight

just because my mind is on the edge of snapping

but i was

hoping this would not be the outcome

i

ugh

i'm sorry

That was only me, I believe. Look for a finer distinction.

About your poisoning ability, it just 'didn't work', right? So if it didn't work, then it's not even a question of whether or not the poisoned would be informed by the host. You or Pizza (and hey, Pizza draws actions by nature) could have been jailed. Some other ability might have interfered. The question is, can you poison again?

eh i misremembered

disregard

i'm an [unintelligent person at this point], sorry

i

dammit

the answer is, i'm not going to say

and yes it just didn't work

i remembered it badly and i strongly dislike myself right now

Cuth, can you explain all this stuff from N2 about the Pizza poisoning? What had you so worked up? It sounded like you had realized something about your role, but you wouldn't say then.

ugh ugh ugh ugh

i was HOPING this was exactly what was not going to happen

expletive

ok

well

we'll see what tomorrow brings

hopefully if anyone dies it'll be scum

And what about this? This sounded like you were planning to hit someone else.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 02:54

I won't run the risk of the other humans saving their partner and helper.

vote: Novice

Don't have the energy right now for anything more, but just a side note that Manasi's role basically confirms 4 scum, one of each class, so keep that in mind when making your teams.
A-ha? Could you elaborate while I read the latest 50 posts or so?

Was that really necessary.

I'm the Avenger Pilot. Scum had better hurry if they want to call for evac.So you claim to be scum?

http://xcom.wikia.com/wiki/Avenger_(XCOM_2)
If I had to guess I'd say he was a type of lone scum. Doesn't know the partners but they know him. That would explain some votes.

I have my own agenda.
Still not running the risk.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 03:01

I won't run the risk of the other humans saving their partner and helper.

vote: Novice

A-ha? Could you elaborate while I read the latest 50 posts or so?

If I had to guess I'd say he was a type of lone scum. Doesn't know the partners but they know him. That would explain some votes.

Still not running the risk.

Novice has been poisoned. He is likely third-party.

There is no good reason to lynch novice over BSmith today.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 03:07

Novice has been poisoned. He is likely third-party.

There is no good reason to lynch novice over BSmith today.

How sure are you about that Monty?

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:12

Hey, something came to my head while rereading day one. Askthepizzaguy was never announced as poisoned.

Some charitative soul is pointing that out for us.

So, FfoS: Cuthillius, do you have anything to say?

Dp101

06-30-2017, 03:13

A-ha? Could you elaborate while I read the latest 50 posts or so?

There are 4 basic soldier classes, and Grenadier is one of them. So, it stands to reason that there are 3 more scum, one for each role.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:16

There are 4 basic soldier classes, and Grenadier is one of them. So, it stands to reason that there are 3 more scum, one for each role.
Oh, right, Zack is young enough to think in terms of the revamped, newer game from a couple years ago.

How would you fit in novice's claimed Avenger pilot in there?

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 03:19

How sure are you about that Monty?

It's difficult to see why how any other course of action could be endorsed. Unless you think novice is scum and Bsmith is not AND novice will be healed by his team, then it would be a pretty bad move.

Hey, something came to my head while rereading day one. Askthepizzaguy was never announced as poisoned.

Some charitative soul is pointing that out for us.

So, FfoS: Cuthillius, do you have anything to say?

We discussed this late D2 and N2. Cuth seemed upset by something he suddenly realized. I just quoted some relevant posts of his, 7 or so posts before this one.

Dp101

06-30-2017, 03:20

Oh, right, Zack is young enough to think in terms of the revamped, newer game from a couple years ago.

How would you fit in novice's claimed Avenger pilot in there?

No clue, none at all. The pilot has a voice actor, but other than that is basically a non-factor in the game itself. I don't know why they would be third party, given that they work for XCOM.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:33

Ah, now I see what Monty was talking about with Manasi and DP on D1.

Not going to bother reading the rest of his iso. Can't see Manasi bussing there.
See this from D1, right at the opening:

Vote: ManasiVote: Champ
Where would that leave General Champerchief?

BTW

Advent* (Town) classes:

ADVENT Shieldbearer
ADVENT Stun Lancer
ADVENT Trooper x1

Alien** (Town) classes:

Codex
Faceless x1
Muton x1
Sectoid x2
Viper

@Cuthilius Tell us what you are plz, what class
Dp101 Explain some of the remaining roles, especially the Advent ones

I figure around 7 townies left give or take, so it may be likely that the classes we haven't seen yet (publicly) are out there.

*Leaving out big or elite units like Advent MEC or Officer
**Leaving out big or elite units like Andromedon, Archon, Avatar, Berserker, Chryssalid, Gatekeeper
I wouldn't guide myself so strictly by unit lists.

See here:

Hardclaim: Advent Trooper
That's my role. And Sooh's. Interesting.

Monty, Zack doesn't like metagaming. He'll go out of his way to make your brain hurt if you attempt it.

cuth
winston
dp
monty
csargo

relatively confident in all of above being town

monty
fred

above prooobably town?

?novice?

autolycus
el barto
logic
bsmith

at least two scum in above
Could you please write a short justification for each?

BSmith's iso is basically justifying/defending his vote on pizza, wagoning me, saying he'd def vote to save himself. What a great read.
Query: Scumread BSmith Y/N
If answer to the above is Y, percentage?

Novice has been poisoned. He is likely third-party.

There is no good reason to lynch novice over BSmith today.
I'm back onto this post.

Manasi went out of her way to save him, and that was after she was saved herself. He's admitting to being in XCOM's employ. Just because they do not share a QuickTopic does not mean they are not on the same side overall.

At best, Zack being Zack, he threw the role in to screw with our minds.

novice dies today, BSmith tomorrow, by all means.

Also, we had better finish novice today and clear Cuthillius while we are at it.

No clue, none at all. The pilot has a voice actor, but other than that is basically a non-factor in the game itself. I don't know why they would be third party, given that they work for XCOM.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 03:34

It's difficult to see why how any other course of action could be endorsed. Unless you think novice is scum and Bsmith is not AND novice will be healed by his team, then it would be a pretty bad move.

We discussed this late D2 and N2. Cuth seemed upset by something he suddenly realized. I just quoted some relevant posts of his, 7 or so posts before this one.

I'm just thinking in terms of Manasi's D2 vote on pizza. That vote was the precursor to her lynch imo, not that she looked good previously, but if novice is third party then her vote makes little sense. Unless she just wanted to get rid of a strong opponent, that's possible as well potentially.

Think Cuth was referring to pizza flipping town? That's how I read it.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:37

Eeek! Post guillotined by premature sending!

No clue, none at all. The pilot has a voice actor, but other than that is basically a non-factor in the game itself. I don't know why they would be third party, given that they work for XCOM.
Hmmmm. As I said above, let us not railroad ourselves into thinking there have to be X players of any given class/species/alignment.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 03:42

Query: Scumread BSmith Y/N
If answer to the above is Y, percentage?

After looking at the Pokemon game, I'd lean scum. Probably like 60% sure of that. There's much more substance there than here imo.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:44

I'm just thinking in terms of Manasi's D2 vote on pizza. That vote was the precursor to her lynch imo, not that she looked good previously, but if novice is third party then her vote makes little sense.
This is a quite succint restatement of my point.

Unless she just wanted to get rid of a strong opponent, that's possible as well potentially.
Yes, but I don't think Manasi would be that clumsy. One atpg for 25% (or more) of their number is too much.
-----

After looking at the Pokemon game, I'd lean scum. Probably like 60% sure of that. There's much more substance there than here imo.
‘There’ being the Pokémon game and ‘here’ being this game?

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:49

Yes, but I don't think Manasi would be that clumsy. One atpg for 25% (or more) of their number is too much.
If novice was town they'd've let him die and then killed atpg during the night. Nobody would protect the counterwaggon to a dead, proven townie. If anything, he would have been tracked. But not watched. atpg was a safe kill. What was unsafe was to let novice live.

Also, ‘pretend to be third party/SK’ is a gambit we have seen many times over the years. I'm not falling for it.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:51

What was unsafe was to let novice live.
*die, damn it.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 03:54

This is a quite succint restatement of my point.

Yes, but I don't think Manasi would be that clumsy. One atpg for 25% (or more) of their number is too much.
-----

‘There’ being the Pokémon game and ‘here’ being this game?

Yeah to the last part.

I'd agree about Manasi, it doesn't make sense to sacrifice yourself for one mislynched pizza. I'd lean novice has a higher chance of being scum than BSmith after Manasi's flip, but it's also weird that she didn't vote BSmith. I need to go back and look to see if she was around.

El Barto

06-30-2017, 03:58

Yeah to the last part.

I'd agree about Manasi, it doesn't make sense to sacrifice yourself for one mislynched pizza. I'd lean novice has a higher chance of being scum than BSmith after Manasi's flip, but it's also weird that she didn't vote BSmith. I need to go back and look to see if she was around.
See #1741 by yours truly.

An oldie!

This is very likely just me tinfoiling, but I think a scum is more likely to remember who was bulletproof than a townie. (At least, I had to look it up.)
It's not as if crimson_snow ended up being an actual bulletproof townie.

Unless, of course, the grenadier i.e. Manasi had a special bazooka/explosive kill.

Dp101

06-30-2017, 04:07

It's not as if crimson_snow ended up being an actual bulletproof townie.

Unless, of course, the grenadier i.e. Manasi had a special bazooka/explosive kill.

I thought that the claim implied that the bulletproof was oneshot?

Dp101

06-30-2017, 04:08

BTW I'm like 90% sure that there's a wolf between Monty and Csargo, but I really can't decide, at all, which one it is.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 04:09

Barto, Bsmith flipping scum clears Cuth better than novice flipping scum.

Why don't we flip BSmith today, and see if novice flips tonight? He's publicly poisoned!

Claims, content, spew: everything right now points to Bsmith now, novice (if necessary) later.

If novice was town they'd've let him die and then killed atpg during the night. Nobody would protect the counterwaggon to a dead, proven townie. If anything, he would have been tracked. But not watched. atpg was a safe kill. What was unsafe was to let novice live.

Why not the other way around? Why isn't Pizza safer to lynch, since Pizza attracts night actions like, uh, flies to Pizza? I suspect it's more a matter of Manasi not wanting to be left off-wagon after making so many commitments and being active during EOD - and also not wanting to be directly responsible for flipping town Pizza.

Also, ‘pretend to be third party/SK’ is a gambit we have seen many times over the years. I'm not falling for it.

HE IS POISONED

See #1741 by yours truly.

An oldie!

It's not as if crimson_snow ended up being an actual bulletproof townie.

Unless, of course, the grenadier i.e. Manasi had a special bazooka/explosive kill.

He was bulletproof N1, during which we had no kill.

I have to say I really don't like the way you are characterizing these things, Bart.

Dp101

06-30-2017, 04:10

HE IS POISONED

To be fair, unless we lynch the specialist today, IMO there's a pretty good chance that the poison is cured, unless the (almost certain) doctor ability of the specialist is x-shot.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 04:12

To be fair, unless we lynch the specialist today, IMO there's a pretty good chance that the poison is cured, unless the (almost certain) doctor ability of the specialist is x-shot.

As far as I'm concerned, we have public evidence novice may die tonight. We have no public evidence BSmith may die tonight.

This shouldn't be hard to weigh.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 04:21

If there's poison, there's most likely a counter to that right? I think that's a logical assumption. So who do you think is more likely to be scum Monty?

Dp101

06-30-2017, 04:21

As far as I'm concerned, we have public evidence novice may die tonight. We have no public evidence BSmith may die tonight.

This shouldn't be hard to weigh.

Oh yeah, I wasn't arguing that we should kill him, just commenting that his death is not a sure thing.

Csargo

06-30-2017, 04:21

A cure if you will.

Montmorency

06-30-2017, 04:25

If there's poison, there's most likely a counter to that right? I think that's a logical assumption. So who do you think is more likely to be scum Monty?

Right now, they might as well be equally likely and all other circumstances make lynching BSmith a better option than lynching novice.

Town if they don't vote BSmith

https://i.imgur.com/ZEEdpNs.gif

Me if we don't lynch BSmith

https://i.imgur.com/NKg5N8n.gif

Dp101

06-30-2017, 04:36

Oh fine. Vote: BSmith (can't remember if I was before, but I feel the need to show my commitment to the cause).

Logic

06-30-2017, 05:15

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith

Zack

06-30-2017, 06:30

Official Tally as of #1846

----

Day 4 ends in: tunnel snakes rule

----

3 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: Csargo, Cuth, novice

Not Posting: BSmith, Fredwood, Winston

----

If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

novice

06-30-2017, 12:09

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15_-cKwNWDA

Fredwood

06-30-2017, 14:12

I'm in agreement about B.Smith over Novice.

What are the chances of scum curing Novice to keep him alive for another day phase? Could the poison also be a manipulation to force the Bsmith vote today? Cuth hasn't claimed the poison right, or did I miss that?

I'm probably over thinking it, so I'll just

vote: BSmith

Cuthillius

06-30-2017, 16:56

oh there's still plenty of time

good

vote:bsmith

in case it wasn't clear, d1 i poisoned and was under the incorrect belief that it didn't work on pizza, rather than just failing, which was the case

Winston Hughes

06-30-2017, 17:08

Weird claim from novice. Don't believe it, but also can't imagine what it's intended to achieve. Certainly not buying any third party angle here.

Winston Hughes

06-30-2017, 17:16

Why are people roleclaiming? Is there any chance it will affect today's lynch? If so, I can't see it. If not, it's just plain stupid imo.

Winston Hughes

06-30-2017, 17:28

Fredwood

06-30-2017, 18:02

Could be tinfoiling a Winston Logic scum team for not seeing any benefit for scum to save novice.

Gonna tinfoil everything, it's kind of fun, but at this point just have to wait for tonight.

Dp101

06-30-2017, 23:35

Well this game is quiet. Given that BSmith's death is a near-certainty right now, who looks worst if we are all wrong? I want to say Monty, because I feel he has been pushing the current doctrine more that most, but I'm curious as to what other people think.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 00:43

Feel like novice has more scum equity than BSmith from my perspective, though I don't think it's impossible them both being scum.

Cuth is pretty much guaranteed town at this point, my brain says I'm stupid for saying that, but I think scum would be op with a dayvig and poisoner in their midst. He did poison novice though, which was a pretty strong townread he had the day before.

I think Dp101 is pretty strong town at this point as well. Plus WH makes 3 pretty strong townreads for me.

I need to iso the remaining 5, but a rough estimate now would be:

auto
Barto
Fred
Monty
Logic

Dp101

07-01-2017, 00:43

Huh, that was my 1001st post, I feel I should have celebrated somehow.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 00:44

Huh, that was my 1001st post, I feel I should have celebrated somehow.

:cake:

Csargo

07-01-2017, 00:46

What are the likely abilities of the scum Dp101? I've never played XCOM...

El Barto

07-01-2017, 00:50

I've never played XCOM...
You must remedy this at once.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 00:52

You must remedy this at once.

If it's on sale, I'll consider it.

Dp101

07-01-2017, 00:54

What are the likely abilities of the scum Dp101? I've never played XCOM...

I went over this during N1, but essentially, we probably killed either a roleblocker or strongman, the Specialist will probably have a doctoring or rolecop ability, Sharpshooter might be vig or tracker, and Ranger was almost certainly the dayvig.

Dp101

07-01-2017, 00:54

If it's on sale, I'll consider it.

Steam sale is on, everything is on sale.

El Barto

07-01-2017, 00:55

El Barto

07-01-2017, 00:57

If it's on sale, I'll consider it.Steam sale is on, everything is on sale.
What? All you need is a DOSBox.

I went over this during N1, but essentially, we probably killed either a roleblocker or strongman, the Specialist will probably have a doctoring or rolecop ability, Sharpshooter might be vig or tracker, and Ranger was almost certainly the dayvig.
Why are you so certain that there are four of them? Somehow everybody's buying Monty's story about numbers of roles when already the number of ADVENT Troopers doesn't match his claims.

Dp101

07-01-2017, 01:01

Why are you so certain that there are four of them? Somehow everybody's buying Monty's story about numbers of roles when already the number of ADVENT Troopers doesn't match his claims.

Because there are 4 basic soldier classes. There can be any number of advent troopers, they are a very generic grunt unit, but thematically based on manasi's flip it would make sense for all 4 of the classes to be paired with roles.

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 01:24

What? All you need is a DOSBox.

Why are you so certain that there are four of them? Somehow everybody's buying Monty's story about numbers of roles when already the number of ADVENT Troopers doesn't match his claims.

Playing with DOSBox is garbage, just use OpenXCOM.

Advent are town, independent of scum roles. As I Said, there must be either 4 mafia and 1 neutral, or 3 mafia and 1 hostile 3p, which is about the same thing. Right now 4 scum hypo is the most plausible and acknowledged default.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 01:29

I went over this during N1, but essentially, we probably killed either a roleblocker or strongman, the Specialist will probably have a doctoring or rolecop ability, Sharpshooter might be vig or tracker, and Ranger was almost certainly the dayvig.

So you think it's possible there are two scum with 1x vigs?

Dp101

07-01-2017, 01:54

So you think it's possible there are two scum with 1x vigs?

No, the analysis of each class's abilities was done in a vacuum. I think the Ranger is the most likely dayvig, which pits the sharpshooter at an unlikely tracker. I really don't know what they might be able to do.

El Barto

07-01-2017, 01:58

Because there are 4 basic soldier classes. There can be any number of advent troopers, they are a very generic grunt unit, but thematically based on manasi's flip it would make sense for all 4 of the classes to be paired with roles.
We'll have to see after the flips.

Playing with DOSBox is garbage, just use OpenXCOM.
One thing at a time. First the original, then the revamped version. It is not our fault that Csargo did not play it back in the days of DOS, so we had better lead him through it gently.

Advent are town, independent of scum roles. As I Said, there must be either 4 mafia and 1 neutral, or 3 mafia and 1 hostile 3p, which is about the same thing. Right now 4 scum hypo is the most plausible and acknowledged default.
As I said above, we'll have to see after the flips.

El Barto

07-01-2017, 01:59

No, the analysis of each class's abilities was done in a vacuum. I think the Ranger is the most likely dayvig, which pits the sharpshooter at an unlikely tracker. I really don't know what they might be able to do.
A tracker might make sense. It'd help them pinpoint town roles.

Dp101

07-01-2017, 02:50

Normally I hate maj as a mechanic, but this is one circumstance where it might be warranted.

El Barto

07-01-2017, 02:52

Normally I hate maj as a mechanic, but this is one circumstance where it might be warranted.
No.

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 02:59

Normally I hate maj as a mechanic, but this is one circumstance where it might be warranted.

Majority-lynch? As GH (or someone) used to say (or said once), "Don't hammer me bro!"*

*Quote may be adulterated

:shame:

Zack

07-01-2017, 04:18

Official Tally as of #1874

----

Day 4 ends in: tunnel snakes rule

----

6 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: Csargo, novice

Not Posting: BSmith

----

If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

El Barto

07-01-2017, 04:37

autolycus: could you expand on your reasons for voting Fredwood?

Csargo

07-01-2017, 04:48

Vote:novice

Most likely we're gonna lynch them both either way, and there's a high probability that he doesn't die from the poison.

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 04:48

I feel like everyone, especially BSmith and novice, is in anti-spew mode.

btw

DO NOT TRIGGER AN EARLY HAMMER.

:grin:

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 04:49

Vote:novice

Most likely we're gonna lynch them both either way, and there's a high probability that he doesn't die from the poison.

:no:

Csargo

07-01-2017, 04:56

:no:

:soapbox:

Logic

07-01-2017, 06:08

All right. If you agree to make novice die tomorrow no matter what if he's alive in Day Five.

If novice were not poisoned, I'd be advocating for his lynch today.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 19:55

unvote:, Vote:BSmith

If BSmith flips scum, I think we should lynch Logic tomorrow. I don't think a Manasi-novice partnership is likely after looking at vote counts throughout the game, unless he was bussing hard, so I kinda genuinely think novice might be 3rd P/neutral. Logic cfd on me looks bad if it was w/w wagons.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 20:02

Manasi vote on ATPG is still weird though, so I wouldn't not lynch novice if the poison doesn't take him out imo.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 20:05

Also, if novice flips 3rd P then Cuth deserves a closer look as well I feel.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 20:06

Think Logic is independently scummy regardless of the flips after iso.

Dp101

07-01-2017, 20:53

This continued radio silence from him makes me feel better about a BSmith lynch.

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 21:52

Also, if novice flips 3rd P then Cuth deserves a closer look as well I feel.

Why Cuth in this case?

This continued radio silence from him makes me feel better about a BSmith lynch.

I have the uneasy sensation that bsmith jumps in with an hour to go spilling a sob story and getting us to CFD onto novice - or worse.

Dp101

07-01-2017, 22:13

Well, this is the most riveting day of mafia I've ever experienced.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 22:24

Why Cuth in this case?

I have the uneasy sensation that bsmith jumps in with an hour to go spilling a sob story and getting us to CFD onto novice - or worse.

Mostly because it doesn't make sense. D2 he made an impassioned case against ATPG, citing his strong belief in novice's townieness as part of it. I don't think that's outside of his scum range from my experience with him. So the only saving grace would be novice flipping scum would clear him. There's a lot of stuff that just doesn't sit well with me. The fact that he apparently misread(?) the fact that his poison attempt could fail, after ATPG was lynched. His reaction after ATPG flipped. The fact that he poisoned novice, after having such a strong townread on him D2, and I don't recall him posting anything about that changing, I'd have to go back and look. There's a lot of things that seem odd with his actions this game.

I think he deserves more scrutiny if novice doesn't flip scum is all I'm saying.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 22:27

I agree with Monty that BSmith should 100% be the lynch today, and I'm not moving outside of extraordinary circumstances.

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 22:32

Mostly because it doesn't make sense. D2 he made an impassioned case against ATPG, citing his strong belief in novice's townieness as part of it. I don't think that's outside of his scum range from my experience with him. So the only saving grace would be novice flipping scum would clear him. There's a lot of stuff that just doesn't sit well with me. The fact that he apparently misread(?) the fact that his poison attempt could fail, after ATPG was lynched. His reaction after ATPG flipped. The fact that he poisoned novice, after having such a strong townread on him D2, and I don't recall him posting anything about that changing, I'd have to go back and look. There's a lot of things that seem odd with his actions this game.

I think he deserves more scrutiny if novice doesn't flip scum is all I'm saying.

I agree that some of these are weird, but is it really scummy? Sure, DP could be wrong or semi-wrong, Mafia could have access to poison solely or alongside the Town, and Cuth may have just been extra-very ballsy with claims (why claim Pizza poisoning in the first place if you knew it was false?), but right now I think even Serial Killer would be more likely for Cuth than being Mafia. In other words, this would be the case of 3 Mafia and 1 hostile 3P (with novice potentially being the extra neutral 3P).

Dp101

07-01-2017, 22:43

I agree, Cuth scum is basically impossible at this point imo

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 22:45

At any rate, don't lynch before LYLO.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 22:45

I agree that some of these are weird, but is it really scummy? Sure, DP could be wrong or semi-wrong, Mafia could have access to poison solely or alongside the Town, and Cuth may have just been extra-very ballsy with claims (why claim Pizza poisoning in the first place if you knew it was false?), but right now I think even Serial Killer would be more likely for Cuth than being Mafia. In other words, this would be the case of 3 Mafia and 1 hostile 3P (with novice potentially being the extra neutral 3P).

Claiming the poisoning looks bad for ATPG, which would be why he would do it, and then the subsequent backpedaling just never sat well with me. The thing that bothers me the most though is the fact he poisoned novice tbh, because the only reason to do that while townreading novice is for towncred, which I don't think town Cuth would do, or at least that's my feeling right now. If Cuth were scum I think his poison would be a one-shot thing. It's a very paranoia type of deal, because he's been genuinely townie up until this point. It's just me cycling through possibilities at this point.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 22:47

I wouldn't lynch Cuth in the near future, but some of his actions just don't sit well with me is all I'm saying.

Csargo

07-01-2017, 22:52

If Manasi-BSmith scum then Logic is highly likely scum as well, right? I would think so.

Montmorency

07-01-2017, 22:56

If Manasi-BSmith scum then Logic is highly likely scum as well, right? I would think so.

I guess?

2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum

In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.

El Barto

07-02-2017, 00:01

At any rate, don't lynch before LYLO.
Let us not be so hasty to clear him altogether.

Zack

07-02-2017, 01:15

Don't post. Will be home later than i expected, apologies for lateness. Day is over.

Zack

07-02-2017, 02:11

Day 4, Final Tally

----

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith

----

Sorry, had some personal stuff I needed to take care of. Update coming now.

Zack

07-02-2017, 02:17

End of Day 4.

BSmith was lynched in a close one.

https://i.imgur.com/t9GEMxx.png

BSmith was a Psi Operative!

He was mafia!
-------

It is now Night Four.

Deadline for night orders in: tunnel snakes rule

-------

Living Players: 10

autolycus
Csargo
Cuthillius
Dp101
El Barto
Fredwood
Logic
Montmorency
novice -- POISONED!
Winston Hughes

------

Dead Players: 7

Jowy - Faceless
crimson_snow - Muton
Askthepizzaguy - Sectoid
GeneralHankerchief - Sectoid
Manasi - Grenadier
Sooh - ADVENT Trooper
BSmith - Psi Operative

Zack

07-02-2017, 02:19

You can post and stuff now.

Dp101

07-02-2017, 02:25

Aaaaand rip my predictions, I was not expecting the fifth class to appear, given that it has to be unlocked via tech rather than being available at the start like all the rest of the classes. I don't feel confident any more in trying to guess at the scum roles.

El Barto

07-02-2017, 02:25

El Barto

07-02-2017, 02:26

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 02:26

Cuth lock town

Aaaaand rip my predictions, I was not expecting the fifth class to appear, given that it has to be unlocked via tech rather than being available at the start like all the rest of the classes. I don't feel confident any more in trying to guess at the scum roles.

Explain plz

El Barto

07-02-2017, 02:27

See #1904, Monty.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 02:30

I'd say Fred/Cuth are clear after that flip.

Dp101

07-02-2017, 02:31

Explain plz

There are 4 basic classes in XCOM 2, Grenadier, Sharpshooter, Ranger, and Specialist. However, once you have researched the right technologies, you unlock a fifth, the psi-operative, which you can turn rookies into via a special building. I discounted them as a role because it would make more sense for the 4 regular classes to be represented, since 4 is a not-unusual size for a scum team. Apparently I was wrong, and we could be dealing with any number. I refuse to consider 5 scum.

El Barto

07-02-2017, 02:33

I was about to type in an explanation but Dp101 beat me to it.

Remember, you owe me novice's lynch if he isn't dead by SoD5.

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 02:34

I'd say Fred/Cuth are clear after that flip.

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.

There are 4 basic classes in XCOM 2, Grenadier, Sharpshooter, Ranger, and Specialist. However, once you have researched the right technologies, you unlock a fifth, the psi-operative, which you can turn rookies into via a special building. I discounted them as a role because it would make more sense for the 4 regular classes to be represented, since 4 is a not-unusual size for a scum team. Apparently I was wrong, and we could be dealing with any number. I refuse to consider 5 scum.

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 02:35

Dp101

07-02-2017, 02:36

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

Would not account for this. Only rookies can be turned into psi-ops, once a rookie promotes they are locked into whichever class they get assigned to.

El Barto

07-02-2017, 02:36

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.
There is unnecessary wine in front of you, Monty.

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?
Remember the commandment: Thou shall not metagame in vain.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 02:42

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

I mean there's bussers on one/both of the wagons, but I don't think you throw another scum up for the lynch in that situation I wouldn't think. If you're gonna to do that, then I don't think you can clear Cuth either. Logic is almost certainly scum at this point imo, so that leaves one busser on the two wagons.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 02:50

Do I get to be cleared because BSmith tried to cfd me?

Csargo

07-02-2017, 02:53

Between Csargo and novice, I don't think the two could be partners based on D1 vote distribution (especially given the Jowy wagon looks to have been all town), but it is my impression that the two have tended to avoid each other. Is that wrong?

BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS

I just want to summarize some of the thoughts I've put out tonight for D4. What have my theories been concerned with?

Manasi is scum. Cuth, Sooh, DP, and then Auto/Barto look good and don't fit easily into the potential teams we are looking at.

Of Logic Winston novice BSmith Csargo Fredwood let's say 3 remaining scum. I haven't wanted to think too hard in terms of Logic and Winston specifically, so for now leave them as wildcards. Look at the remaining 4, the wagon-candidates novice and Bsmith, and the two players Csargo & Fredwood, who are linked by the formation of the BSmith counter to Manasi D3 as well as having looked pretty town overall (but Csargo declining D3).

The crucial question has been, were BSmith and novice both scum wagons? Possibilities:

1. Novice is town and BSmith is town

In this case, Fredwood starting the Bsmith wagon and/or Csargo thirding it were meant to dilute the Manasi wagon and get someone other than Manasi lynched. Given the BSmith wagon progression, if either Csargo or Fredwood fli[s scum, the other is more likely to be scum. Not quite a package deal, but a significant factor. Winston could conceivably be a partner here, but Logic is more likely. So, most likely team Fred-Csargo-Logic(-Manasi). I don't really like this scenario among the options, and not just because Logic in turn tried to form a Csargo counterwagon EOD. This scenario then leaves open tinfoil on DP or Barto additionally, making it the most open-ended.

With the following scenarios, a vig on either novice or Bsmith (but especially BSmith) is enormously helpful.

2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum

In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.

3. Novice is scum and BSmith is town

In this case, the Fredwood-Csargo connection and malicious formation of Bsmith wagon are reprised as considerations. The difference with Scenario 1 is that Fred and Csargo are even more likely to be paired, and Cuth/DP look worse while Logic may fit a bit less well as partner.

4. The centerpiece: Novice is scum and BSmith is scum

This is my preferred scenario, because it preserves the people I have liked and makes for the simplest game. Here, Csargo and Fred are genuine townies just making another good case because no way scum compromise a third partner when two are already leading wagons. Assuming after Manasi-novice-BSmith are eliminated that there is one partner left, I would bet on auto just for lack of skin and for taking novice as still likely town D3.

Just for reference.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 02:58

It seems likely novice/Logic are both scum, or at least one of them. They've both sort of disappeared from the thread.

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 03:08

It seems likely novice/Logic are both scum, or at least one of them. They've both sort of disappeared from the thread.

Let's say Logic is scum and novice isn't, or not aligned.

Who's the last baddy?

Dp101

07-02-2017, 05:06

Csargo

07-02-2017, 05:15

lol

Dp101

07-02-2017, 05:18

lol

If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?

Csargo

07-02-2017, 05:26

Csargo

07-02-2017, 05:28

If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?

I don't know why it would matter what novice flips. He's either 3rd P or scum either way doesn't matter I don't think.

Dp101

07-02-2017, 05:29

I don't understand why you have Barto and auto clear. Especially not auto I don't think, unless there's something I'm missing?

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 05:34

Let's say Logic is scum and novice isn't, or not aligned.

Who's the last baddy?

I'd probably lean you being scum if that's the case. Potentially Dp. I feel if Logic is scum and novice isn't, I think last scum is probably on BSmith wagon. Of the other wagon auto or Barto.

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 05:48

So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston

Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.

Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.

I killed BSmith when no one else wanted to.

Scummy thing to say.

Scummy to clear Fred, auto, and Winston.

If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?

Wrong. If novice is scum, Csargo looks even better.

Scummy thing to say.

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

As I said, I don't think we should take that spew too far. Manasi could have been misdirecting.

I'd probably lean you being scum if that's the case. Potentially Dp. I feel if Logic is scum and novice isn't, I think last scum is probably on BSmith wagon. Of the other wagon auto or Barto.

Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.

You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.

Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 06:03

Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.

You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.

Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.

At this point it doesn't matter who was on the wagons, because someone was bussing clearly. There's not enough on auto to make a decent read. I'm assuming you're not townreading me either. Where did you get Fred/Cuth, I never said either in that post? novice flip gives us good information, and Logic seems lock scum at this point, so all of this is conjecture and feels atm. Not sure why you're getting so bent out of shape about it.

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 06:14

wHO'S getting bent? Who's out of shape? Not me!

Csargo

07-02-2017, 06:34

I killed BSmith when no one else wanted to.

Scummy thing to say.

Scummy to clear Fred, auto, and Winston.

Wrong. If novice is scum, Csargo looks even better.

Scummy thing to say.

As I said, I don't think we should take that spew too far. Manasi could have been misdirecting.

Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.

You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.

Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.

Also find this hilarious tbh.

What would be your PoE if Logic is scum and novice is not?

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 07:03

Also find this hilarious tbh.

What would be your PoE if Logic is scum and novice is not?

What's so funny?

I would start by looking at auto.

Fredwood

07-02-2017, 07:04

I mean though, especially - wouldn't Mafia have an incentive to cure third-party novice just to buy one more mislynch? Oh shoite

Said that already twice...you guys should really pay more attention to me, I say smart things on occasion.

Fredwood

07-02-2017, 07:09

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

The only issue I have with Auto rn, is that he voted me in a situation where it was consensus we would vote BSmith, as a way to clear BSmith...that may be a tad personal from my point of view, and I think Auto's is cleared depending if Novice is scum. I think he's definitely in a higher tier then other non-clears though.

Fredwood

07-02-2017, 07:19

The only issue I have with Auto rn, is that he voted me in a situation where it was consensus we would vote BSmith, as a way to clear BSmith...that may be a tad personal from my point of view, and I think Auto's is cleared depending if Novice is scum. I think he's definitely in a higher tier then other non-clears though.

My reaction may be a tad personal I mean. Seems odd he'd buck against consensus on a low poster to lynch another person to clear a low poster. (shrug emote)

Cuthillius

07-02-2017, 15:07

cool

Cuthillius

07-02-2017, 15:51

started rereading thread, got sidetracked

rip

Csargo

07-02-2017, 18:01

Said that already twice...you guys should really pay more attention to me, I say smart things on occasion.

I've said it as well.

Montmorency

07-02-2017, 20:22

started rereading thread, got sidetracked

rip

RIP?

By the by, you've been talking funny lately.

Csargo

07-02-2017, 21:09

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

Her basic stance was he had basically done nothing.

Okay anyway.

How the :daisy: are people reading Auto as town?

All two of his posts were him sheeping (now dead confirmed villagers) and doing ~nothing else to help himself.

He somehow had an independent scum read on DP who is so far down everyone's lists it's insane.

I'm just shocked he only has two relevant posts in the game.

How is this okay?

Vote: Auto

She basically said the same thing about BSmith here.

I think there have been two people in this game who have town read me.

Good work, you guys.

People just seem comfortable in their POE and I'm gonna be at work/in a car until EOD.

I do still think that people are just overlooking auto which really :daisy: bugs me.

I have maybe read one BSmith post but I'd go for them over me if it came to it.

I don't think Sooh has been posting better but I also don't think she's getting lynched in any world today so rip.

Sooh, what were the questions I didn't respond to?

So I wouldn't necessarily clear auto for that, but he looks good all things considered. He needs to step it up though, because we're in mid-late game and he's posted a handful of times, which is unacceptable.

Montmorency

07-03-2017, 04:59

Alright guys, this may be my final message. I hope I can at least be proud of my play as I leave you.

Here is my endowment to you.

I hard claim ADVENT Shieldbearer. I am a doctor. I am protecting Cuth tonight. I have partial resistance to poisoning (it takes an extra round, day and night, to kill me). My doctoring also confers the same effect so, sorry novice but your life didn't turn out to be worth extending while townies are under threat.

I protected Crimson Snow N1 (insured with his bulletproof), and again N2. He died then. I protected Sooh N3. She died. I don't know if it was two strongman shots, or if they used an extra vig or what.
My shock at seeing two protections in a row overcome by Mafia is part of what led to my performance with abandon yesterday, at personal risk.

And here we are. I urge all townies to claim soon, and to claim hard. Don't give 'em room to wriggle.

THE PLAYERS

Cuth: He just can't be Mafia. There's a small chance he's a serial killer. Don't lynch unless, 1. It's LYLO, 2. You already lynched 3 Mafia, 3. There is an extra, unaccounted kill at some point.

Novice: Third party is likely as of now, though he made his claim sound like he could benefit the Mafia in some way ("evac"?). If he survives the night, don't lynch off the handle, though he probably shouldn't live to the end of the game. Get him to contribute first. At this point he can't be both scum and a fall guy for scum, so we need to tease out whether a novice lynch hurts scum or not, which we do through analysis, activity, and interaction. Novice wagon voting in the past is largely meaningless in the case of him being 3P. Probably also worth it to rule out Logic-novice for the way they had been going at each other D2 and D3, so I suppose that is also something to consider if you have to choose between Logic and novice today (i.e. novice alive and lynched flips scum = Logic town). You may well end up lynching novice if he lives, just take your time, draw it out. Don't treat him like a BSmith lynch. If novice does die tonight and isn't scum, Logic should be your top candidate for lynch but same goes with pushing analysis and activity.

Auto: Speaking of meaningless votes, auto might as well be sub-BSmith now. Any Manasi spew is not worth much unless you assume she couldn't have been calculating any such spew. If he flips scum and Logic does not, consider that lonely Fred vote he made yesterday in the midst of the BSmith wagon, and how he said lynching Fred would help resolve BSmith. Possibly a distancing inversion of my view that BSmith flipping scum makes Fredwood look better. I think scum-auto makes Fred look worse by this.

I'm going to vote: Fred. Bsmith is certainly not cleared in my book, but with his starting the Bsmith trend going, he and Bsmith aren't both scum (so lynching him would help me make up my mind on Bsmith), and he was my second choice yesterday and nothing's happened to change that.
Since he has so few posts though, evaluations either way have to be dampened, including his best look in being an early Manasi voter D3. His full ISO is voting Novice D1, voting DP and putting Csargo and Monty in POE for voting novice on D2, voting Manasi "from Pizza's list" and boosting novice (again) and BSmith at the expense of Fredwood and Monty on D3, and voting Fred yesterday as mentioned. A plausible lynch, but also something you have to watch in how others promote it (to their advantage?).

On another note, my sister is getting into town from out of the country this evening, so I won't be active in the second half of the game day (from about 2 pm EDT tomorrow until some time on Sunday)

Logic: Nothing much to recommend him this game. Claims to be trying a lot harder this game than in Pokemon, but I see it the other way around. Susses Csargo and novice N3, after voting Csargo with BSmith D3. Hardclaimed Advent Trooper, most generic town role (just flipped by Sooh, then claimed by Barto), pretty safe claim, right after I made the call for claims. Ingratiation? His early adoption of my Lynch BSmith agenda may also be WIFOMy in the absence of any other content, especially with how quickly it came after DP finally placed the second vote on the wagon. Someone needs to fully ISO him for interactions. Have novice do it parallel as part of his community service, if he's alive. I offer a start on D1 (w/ other relevants thrown in for good measure):

Random Gods tell me to vote: Sooh though I am tempted to vote for one of the no lynchers.

If you jump ship, and onto one of the no lynchers, there is a reasonable chance that I will join you.

Hi Auto!

Hm, what else.

I think that was a really forced joke by Sooh - it just read as really awkward.

Winston's entrance towny, Logic's reaction also towny.

On both counts, why?

Manasi

You seem to have missed it the first time, but I'd still like an answer to this:

On both counts, why?

Monty aside, I've got Manasi, Logic, and Cuth all needing close attention on my read through, plus autolycus looking a fair bit scummier than usual for his quietude, simply because he showed in his champs game that he's capable of so much more.

[Early day Winston interactions; Cuth reacts later, in mid-day]

you

you do realize 7% is squarely below rand [on the miller claim reasoning]

This is how far the multiquoting limit let me go for this post. Halfway through the thread I think.

I think I agree [Logic is towny].

"You" here is Jowy, right? Oh, reading on, it's referring to Logic. Meh. I think Jowy is townier tbh.

Forum ate my post, so here is the shorter version:

This pings to me as scummy. I can't put my finger on the "why"

Csargo's "I just wana eat" gif pings to me as scummy.

Dp101 isn't doing himself any favors, but I don't have him as near wolf as you guys do. I think his defensiveness is well within most the town range of most people

Crimson_snow was initially voting for no lynch. Pinged me later with this:

While "contrarian" isn't exactly a wolf-tell, it is a bit anti-town.

I was considering placing a vote on the next highest wagon behind DP101, then I saw it was El Barto, being voted on by Fredwood and Crimson snow, and then immediately declined. Fredwood and Crimson Snow I think are much higher wolf candidates than Barto. Not sure who I'm voting for just yet, but I am going to Unvote: Winston Hughes while I am thinking about it.

Logic's mini-wall is slightly towny. [echoing Jowy above him]

I don't like any of those choices [from Jowy, Barto/Logic/Champ/Monty]. They're all at best null reads for me. Except Monty, he's slightly scummy.

@Cuth

What do you think of Logic and Manasi?

no real thought on logic, though gun to head probably town, i KINDA like manasi as of right now but it's like

super thin

and i'm super bad at reading her

as evidenced by recent events

so /shrug

oh Logic to you in particular

you're improving at mafia

your gameplay is up a couple steps already from your first games here/on cfc

good to see :)

Sup scrubs.

Winston, just thought it was a natural/seamless entrance that wasn't forced etc.

Granted, I'm pretty sure that was like 24 hours ago.

Vote: Sooh

...and?

i'm not lynching a one poster, and she did leave a legit excuse

Mobile posting: exoect errors.

Brief insight: if Dp101 is scum, I find it unlikely that novice is on his team. I saw at least one post by novice that looks like too convincing a case for Dp101 and novice to be on the same team.

And Cuthillius I don't think I've greatly improved over the 4 games I've played since the one on CFC. If I remember right, I was killed n1 that game.

Plus, you were around to see me royally mess up Pokemon, so I'd say I haven't been given enough time to show how bad I can be.

Of the lurkers, I'm most comfortable taking down Monty. Any takers?
Vote: Montmorency.

Vote: Logic

The background is that he was the host of the recent game where I randed a miller-type role, in which I opened with the same hardclaim bit as I opened with here. Discussions around that claim ended up dominating the whole first day, culminating in me getting mislynched, but not before I correctly picked out several townies and scumbags based on their reactions. He and I then spent a while talking about the day's events in dead chat.

In this context, his reaction here looks bad to me. It was like he felt he needed to react in some way, but got caught between playing along with the claim and showing that he knew it wasn't for real.

Then there was Manasi's reaction, which felt like he was giving us both town credit far too cheaply, and made me wonder if he'd got some inside line from scumchat.

And looking at their ISOs - and Manasi's weak (and delayed) response to my question - I'm not seeing any great reason to townread either of them, or to doubt that they might be scumbuddies.

I :sweetheart: [Manasi], but I don't like [your vote for Sooh].

An excuse that excuses one day of a 48h phase is fine

never coming back is the issue.

K i n d a r i d i c u l o u s i m o

Also COMPLETELY not okay with a Monty lynch.

If we're lynching a low poster, it's gonna be Sooh and not Monty.

Monty def your scumbuddy huh. I see.

let's say we lynch someone who's at least moderately active

who'd you prefer if that were the case

not csargo

not atpg

not logic/winston [my bold, calling attention to the Player/Player construction]

not crimson

not monty in italics

so, like

nobody who's been on the table all day except dp?

MANASI EOD1 (excluding a few exchanges between Barto, Csargo and DP)

NOTE: Some last-minute flirting between Manasi and Csargo was excluded because it's just clutter at this point

Why are you [DP] scum reading champ?

The sudden jumping onto the wagon feels wrong, from him.

Sup Monty

I notice that, for the second time in the day, I have joined with Askthepizzaguy and Csargo to be third on a leading bandwaggon.

[Thanked by Csargo]

How does it feel?

Appropriately scummy I would hope.

I am not sure yet. But it is a good question, even after taking into account the age of the asker. ;)

It does, a bit [re" why is DP scumreading Champ, sea above block]. So why are you not voting for him?

I dunno. I feel that Jowy is rather scummy, but I just hate the behaviour of those on him.

Because I have one vote and many people to kill.

You know what his personality is like though. Why are you suddenly jumping on him for being exactly himself?

I never remember him just bandwagoning away.

I'm not talking about how he plays.

I'm talking about how he acts.

Well, I was talking about his play when I called him scummy.

Are you [El Barto] flirting with me?

Well, you certainly aren't jailbait now, are you?

I haven't been jailbait for a while.

This conversation scares me.

You get scared when someone mentions kissing. Relax.

Because [Champ is] scum, I've literally been saying this the entire day.

https://i.imgur.com/kOjFpJs.gif

Omg ok fine I'm sorry I was just trying to get there myself

Dp101

???

Don't play with my heart Manasi pls.

Zack plz count it

Vote DP101

Too many sites too many voting formats

Vote:Dp101

huehuehue

https://i.imgur.com/rM9d91L.gif

Vote: Jowy for self-preservation.

Ugh. A colon on mobile is so hard.

Vote: dp101

Where did Barto disappear

?????? [On Manasi claiming Jowy peeked her]

I was playing videogames.

Winston: Standard Winston content, but he has seemed rather distant throughout the game. Could be deep scum, but I'm nullish on what evidence there may be. Found Logic and BSmith scummiest N3, townpoints to DP, felt novice was a good lynch for info, though IMO that D1 miller-claim interaction with Logic may negate an opposite-alignment conclusion. On the other hand there, most of his D1 ISO is above in the Logic D1 ISO I made, and it's a strong foundation for a town game. Best look has been voting Manasi D2 and early D3, and noting N3 that town-BSmith might be more hesitant to vote Pizza than he displayed in his D2 hit-and-run. Never lynch before Final 3/4.

Fredwood: A strange fellow who has been low-impact beyond giving a towny performance D2. I have found him difficult to bind to interactions, the worst thing I could find being a comment from Manasi wrt Pizza sussing.

re: fredison

I think he sounds comfortable, for whatever that's worth.

At least.

His TOAN seems rather conversational. Idk how good he is at this thing I just think he's probably okay.

On D4, he tinfoiled a Winston Logic scum team for not seeing any benefit for scum to save novice. As far as bussing and WIFOM go, he's likelier than Csargo wrt BSmith. Most significant factor, BSmith and Logic started an abortive wagon onto Csargo in late D3. Don't forget about a potential pseudo-spew connection with auto. In the simplest world though, he is just town who pushed a good case against BSmith, and nothing more.

Csargo: Odd stance on D4 Bsmith lynch, and his late conversion by the time it was foregone. Behaved and voted oddly D3. Otherwise he's played a strong game, and the evidence makes it difficult to scumread him. At this point he might only be scum with Barto, and the remnants of the Fredwood tinfoil. Barto and DP, don't tinfoil Csargo for the wrong reasons.

Barto: I was weirded out by his early insistence yesterday that novice should be lynched over BSmith. Overall I believe we have seen Barto's town play. Voted Manasi mid-day, but before the BSmith wagon. Also voted Manasi toward mid-D2 after voting Fredwood (which novice voted Barto for).

DP: He's been fairly pure lately, and it's difficult to find fault with his voting. Manasi was eager to vote him EOD1, which is arguably indicative even if Jowy was looking set to lynch. I think Pizza was correct to predict he would post himself clear by D3. Barto and Csargo, you probably don't want to lynch here.

The bottom three players there I would like to set aside for the moment, as they have some overwhelming ISOs and I don't think it would be useful for me to approach them here.

Finally, think about how many lynches are left. If Mafia kill and novice dies of poison, you're looking at three (3) standard lynches. Even if no one dies tonight, you're definitely not going to see better than 4 lynches. Factor your considerations around Logic and novice in this context. Personally, I hope you can lynch Logic while examining other angles, for maximum mileage. People need to (be made to) contribute so that we have more than the ossified tinfoils across a relatively large pool of candidates to judge from.

TLDR: If novice does die tonight and isn't scum, Logic should be your top candidate for lynch but same goes with pushing analysis and activity. Do not fail to counterfactualize Logic as a red herring.

SO LONG AND THANKS FOR ALL THE BALATEN

Zack

07-03-2017, 05:00

Night is over, don't post.

Zack

07-03-2017, 05:09

End of Night 4.

Montmorency was killed, despite his furious attempts to pound his fist into the ground.

https://i.imgur.com/JMf5LYQ.png

Montmorency was an ADVENT Shieldbearer!

He was town!
novice has succumbed to the poison.

https://i.imgur.com/1ZDw2Lw.png

novice was a Sharpshooter!

He was mafia!

-------

It is now Day Five.

Voting ends in: tunnel snakes rule

Day 5 ends in: tunnel snakes rule

-------

Living Players: 8

autolycus
Csargo
Cuthillius
Dp101
El Barto
Fredwood
Logic
Winston Hughes

------

Dead Players: 9

Jowy - Faceless
crimson_snow - Muton
Askthepizzaguy - Sectoid
GeneralHankerchief - Sectoid
Manasi - Grenadier
Sooh - ADVENT Trooper
BSmith - Psi Operative
Montmorency - ADVENT Shieldbearer
novice - Sharpshooter

Zack

07-03-2017, 05:09

You can now post.

Csargo

07-03-2017, 05:33

Cuth definitively lock-town after novice flip.

This vote count D2 is the only saving grace for Logic:

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

Most everything else points to Logic being scum.

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)

----

Not Voting: n/a

Not Posting: autolycus

WH/auto off wagon.

I have no idea what Monty's tldr meant. I still think Logic is a viable candidate after the novice flip from what I remember.

Csargo

07-03-2017, 05:35

We have essentially 3 lynches left before game over.

Dp101

07-03-2017, 05:47

We have essentially 3 lynches left before game over.

Sounds like plenty to me.

Dp101

07-03-2017, 05:49

Also, I still find it weird that Novice was the wolf in novice v pizza. I guess I'm just terrible at reading both, but whatever.

Dp101

07-03-2017, 05:52

Let's see if this gets any results Vote: Autolycus

Csargo

07-03-2017, 05:56

I think Logic is the lynch today, especially after what happened D3. auto after that imo. Outside of something in Logic's iso that makes it seem unlikely.

Logic

07-03-2017, 06:39

I think Logic is the lynch today, especially after what happened D3. auto after that imo. Outside of something in Logic's iso that makes it seem unlikely.

You are advocating for my lynch, but failing to commit to it yourself.

I'll need to reread your ISO, but last I looked, you seemed like a good candidate to me.

Csargo

07-03-2017, 07:17

You are advocating for my lynch, but failing to commit to it yourself.

I'll need to reread your ISO, but last I looked, you seemed like a good candidate to me.

There's no way me or Barto are scum here. Unless you think we bussed our partners for basically the entire game. You can look at my D3 reads list I posted earlier, where I called the 3 now dead scum scummy, but if you want to tinfoil me go right ahead. If you add WH because outside of being a hardcore busser on Manasi, he's most likely clean as well, plus Cuth. I feel pretty strongly that these four are town.

That leaves the remaining scum among you, auto, Fred, and Dp101 being the most likely. Of those Fred and Dp are towniest, so that leaves you and auto as the best candidates for me.

Cuthillius

07-03-2017, 07:48

RIP?

By the by, you've been talking funny lately.

indeed

yeah i've been picking up tone from other people in the MU discord

'pologies if it bothers you at any point

Cuthillius

07-03-2017, 07:50

by the by

if anyone still wonders why i poisoned novice

i saw that brought up whatever i don't really care but

postmortem pizza sheep combined with

realizing that the reasoning i used for townreading him was flawed/confbiased based off what i thought of pizza

combined with

if nothing else it'll make sure we talk about other people too for once

glad it worked out like this though

Cuthillius

07-03-2017, 07:51

i think auto>logic is the correct way to go here

Fredwood

07-03-2017, 08:35

I think either is fine, but why auto over logic?

autolycus

07-03-2017, 13:11

Csargo

07-03-2017, 14:45

Vote:Logic

Dp101

07-03-2017, 16:00

Just so everyone knows, tree stump does fit with the lore for how an Andromedon works in the game (it essentially has two stages, you kill the first and it becomes a less powerful enemy). I trust this claim. Vote: Logic

Cuthillius

07-03-2017, 16:09

I think either is fine, but why auto over logic?

from a bussing pov, buut

now that i think about it not really valid anyway

logic had to keep up townread on pizza, that was his whole thing

vote: logic

Fredwood

07-03-2017, 17:11

vote: Logic

Andromedan such a good role for such an annoying thing to fight.

Logic

07-03-2017, 19:21

When I flip town, who is your next suspect? Honestly, Cuth is the only one I have as lock town. Winston looks really good to me, based on his posts. Everyone else is on varying levels of unconvincing suspicions (I guess you could say null, but I keep going back and forth on almost everyone.)

Auto hasn't given me enough to go off of, but his role claim might help if I'd played XCOM 2. Since everyone else seems to be taking his word for it, it seems reliably genuine.

I don't think I'll have time before EOD to do a full analysis, but I will give it my all if indeed I do.

Winston Hughes

07-03-2017, 19:33

I'm honestly fine with a me lynch here.

I haven't been able to be active, and I'm HardClaim: Andromedon and if I'm killed I become a Tree Stump (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tree_Stump). That's an ability that isn't verifiable without my death, and we don't lose my ability to provide analysis. Cuth poisoning me if he has more uses would not be a bad idea either.

That being said, I'm still a town lynch, so I'll vote: Logic.

I'm not convinced by this. I don't recall ever having heard of the 'tree stump' role prior to Monty speculating about pizza being one on D3, and it seems like a remarkable coincidence to end up with an actual tree stump in this game.

Looking at the wiki, the power does make sense for the role as DP says, but there's no reason the scum couldn't have worked this out themselves when cooking up a cover claim.

Also, I'm very wary about the idea of putting off testing a claim that includes the ability to survive death. It strikes me as unwise to assume we've got three lynches left, given that we've already seen one daykill and we still have a poisoner in our ranks. What if auto is telling the truth about being able to survive, but lying about it turning him stumpy?

vote: autolycus

El Barto

07-03-2017, 23:15

I'll try to read Monty's pre-mortem myriad-liner to see what can be gleaned from it.

We have essentially 3 lynches left before game over.
Elaborate, please.

When I flip town, who is your next suspect? Honestly, Cuth is the only one I have as lock town. Winston looks really good to me, based on his posts. Everyone else is on varying levels of unconvincing suspicions (I guess you could say null, but I keep going back and forth on almost everyone.)

Auto hasn't given me enough to go off of, but his role claim might help if I'd played XCOM 2. Since everyone else seems to be taking his word for it, it seems reliably genuine.

I don't think I'll have time before EOD to do a full analysis, but I will give it my all if indeed I do.
Please go on. If you are a townie, now is your moment to help the cause.

(and if you're scum, now is the time to fool us by not going into anti-spew mode)

Dp101

07-03-2017, 23:26

Dp101

07-03-2017, 23:27

Nevermind, I'm an idiot, missed it earlier.

El Barto

07-03-2017, 23:38

He's claiming vanillager for himself. It is the same role as mine and Sooh's.

Csargo

07-04-2017, 00:56

I'll try to read Monty's pre-mortem myriad-liner to see what can be gleaned from it.

Elaborate, please.

Please go on. If you are a townie, now is your moment to help the cause.

(and if you're scum, now is the time to fool us by not going into anti-spew mode)

Elaborate on what? We have 2 lynches and then lylo, unless Cuth poison's someone and we have another dayvig. Both would have to happen for us to lose one of our lynches. That seems like an extremely unlikely scenario. As long as we only have one scum remaining, which seems likely.

Csargo

07-04-2017, 01:01

We actually might be better off lynching auto here all things considered. We wouldn't lose anyone, verify auto's claim, and get an extra round of discussion out of the deal. It's win-win.

Vote:auto

Csargo

07-04-2017, 01:04

I guess either way it doesn't matter, lynch Logic today and auto tomorrow. Same result.

Logic

07-04-2017, 01:08

I guess either way it doesn't matter, lynch Logic today and auto tomorrow. Same result.

Actually, no, not the same result. Lynching auto today means we still have him tomorrow. Lynching me today means you lynch auto tomorrow, and I am a dead townie.

Vote: Csargo

Csargo

07-04-2017, 01:11

Logic At this point you have to post yourself clear, and calling everyone various shades of null doesn't do anything for me.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 01:12

Lynching auto first is a better idea if we think both are equally likely to flip scum, but, I think logic is a much better choice, so I'm not moving my vote.

Csargo

07-04-2017, 01:12

Actually, no, not the same result. Lynching auto today means we still have him tomorrow. Lynching me today means you lynch auto tomorrow, and I am a dead townie.

Vote: Csargo

My votes on auto, friend.

Csargo

07-04-2017, 01:15

Lynching auto first is a better idea if we think both are equally likely to flip scum, but, I think logic is a much better choice, so I'm not moving my vote.

They are. Tell me why they're not? Logic looks worse sure, but that's because he has more posts to analyze than auto. Not much to be gained from 5 posts.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 01:34

They are. Tell me why they're not? Logic looks worse sure, but that's because he has more posts to analyze than auto. Not much to be gained from 5 posts.

The sequence of his claim is exactly what I would expect from scum. Claiming vanilla, and also claiming an already-dead role, at a time when no one was really analysing claims and there was no reason for him to claim. It's basically a checklist of how I want to claim if I am forced to as scum when I have no cover role. It's kind of a crappy way to die as town, getting lynched for your claim, but, well, it just feels wrong to me.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 01:58

Something does not feel right.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 02:05

Something does not feel right.

Well that's helpful.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 02:07

Well that's helpful.
Shhh, I'm looking at voting patterns.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 02:16

Shhh, I'm looking at voting patterns.

Ooh, tell me what you find.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 02:21

Ooh, tell me what you find.
So far, a lot of people voting for other people.

And that I've finally outposted Sooh for this thread!

El Barto

07-04-2017, 02:50

El Barto

07-04-2017, 02:54

Re: #1981, that's an explanation on why Monty was already cleared by then, even if he's (obviously) cleared by the nightkill.

Csargo

07-04-2017, 03:18

What are you getting at Barto?

El Barto

07-04-2017, 03:20

I was wondering whether Dp101's quoted post was made by a scummo trying to prevent a town core from forming or by a clueless townie.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 03:22

Incidentally, you should all be telling me how right I was about novice being scum and Manasi risking exposure to save him.

Who started encouraging the rumours about him being -allegedly- a third-party member? IIRC only Winston and I outright stated that we didn't want to purchase his bovine excretions regarding that matter.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 03:24

On another note, are we finally at the point where we should mass claim?

El Barto

07-04-2017, 03:29

On another note, are we finally at the point where we should mass claim?
Given that everybody can claim ADVENT Trooper i.e. vanilla townie, that's not certain to yield any results.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 03:43

Given that everybody can claim ADVENT Trooper i.e. vanilla townie, that's not certain to yield any results.

I guess.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 05:11

There's eight of us alive right now.

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Most give us something to work with. Only Logic and Winston are in danger of being outposted by the GM - auto's a special case.

Our EoD tallies so far are here, with some analysis.
People with their names both in colour and bolded are those cleared by their death results.
People with a name not bolded are those whose alignment is all but certain, i.e. Cuthillius. Underlined comes, obviously, my own good self, whom you should be considering to be town. Take my word for it. My name is Bartholomew Simpson, it wasn't me and I didn't do it.

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, El Barto, Champ, Dp101)

2 Csargo (novice, Jowy)
2 Dp101 (Manasi, Csargo)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)
1 Sooh (BSmith)
The strategy seems to have been based on
not voting together
not voting each other, because the lynch required a plurality and an energetic townie pulling a Chinese fire drill on someone might have just seen a scummioso lynched with three or four votes. Or even two, with a random tiebreaker (!).
trying to vote with a townie
try not to vote with the actual lynch in order to prevent information from getting out.

This would give some town credibility to Dp101, Csargo, possibly Winston. autolycus starts by voting scum!novice alone which would break the pattern (notice how, when Manasi was pressed on D3, as I pointed out, she tried to divert attention off herself and BSmith onto him -as I've said, Manasi's been sticking to the same recipe she used last game a bit clumsily this game and it's been failing her) -all in all, autolycus would seem to be cleared, at least by D1 standards of course.

Logic? Fred? Not cleared at all.

Now let's go to Day Two.

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)
There's a mistake in the original tally, with novice also listed as voting for Sooh, whom he unvoted in order to get atpg lynched (he had the credible excuse of self-defence, which Manasi didn't)

I will assume that everybody still voting for the scummioso in such a situation is not mafia, unless they have a deeply buried busser (which is a bit unlikely on D2, see their behaviour on D1). Csargo could have said OMGUS, vote: General ChamperChief!

Or not! Let us see this tiny gem that happened when Manasi stepped in to give herself away.

Ugh.

Vote: Novice

This is mostly a protest mechanical vote because I am not wasting a lynch on a town read who could possibly die in the night from poison.

Let the record show, I wanted to lynch Barto.

LOL wtf

vote: pizza

remember not to post after :00
All four posts have timestamps at :58. The change in mood in Csargo's posts is evident. If he were mafia he would have said nothing. Who has the time to coördinate such a response? Manasi was on duty at EoD, saw a sudden lynch on one of her partners, and sprang to action. Csargo, if mafia, would

This is some town cred for the C-man.

Logic? Let's dig in to find his vote and any justification(s).

6 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto, novice, BSmith)

5 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo, Dp101, Monty)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Csargo (Logic)
The top two waggons are scum! What a tough situation for the mafia! But they actually should have lynched BSmith. Manasi's flip all but doomed novice. At least Cuth and Monty listened to me.
Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can
Manasi tried to vote auto and it didn't work.

Logic… is the only one not voting mafia. PIS? A repeat of the ‘let's not vote together’ grand strategy?

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith
On Day Four… everyone voting then and there voted for BSmith, except me and autolycus. It's really, really quite ballsy for autolycus to not join the waggon if scum.

Back to our list!

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Dp101 has been posting in a healthy manner and has been helpful when he had no reason to be so, e.g. handing out tidbits of the XCOM lore.

Winston's been making logical arguments when sober. See this for example, on D3 when atpg had been lynched and then revived, with novice still alive.

atpg needs a world religion founded in his name, though I'm slightly disappointed that he didn't rewrite the lyrics to Mama Said Knock You Out by way of celebration (lifetime's supply of cookies if you get the reference, pizza).

GH is lock town. Ability makes no sense for scum. As per my miller bit, Zack's bastard days are long since passed.

On Cuth, the debunking of the case on novice would be impressive from town, but truly exceptional from scum. With respect, I don't believe he's reached the level of skill and audacity where he would dare going toe-to-toe with pizza in such a manner unless he actually believed what he was saying. Which, somewhat perversely, means he's lock town if novice flips scum.

Everyone else remains in the suspect pool pending ISOs and flips.

He also locked on Manasi early on (voted her on D2 and stuck there, now again on D3 he helped lynch her by one vote). As scum he could have jollied her along in her disparagement of Sooh's posts. Sooh would have had a hard time facing a coördinated attack on two or three fronts; a relatively unsuspected BSmith by then might have just jumped in to help if all three were scum.

Logic's posts:

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith
Sheep?

Hardclaim: Advent Trooper
Vanillager claim, hi there you handsomely similar trooper!

So, for now, I think the order of lynching is Logic, then thunderdome autolycus-Fredwood. Dp101 and Winston are currently more likely town than scum, Csargo is more likely scum than they are. Subject to changes dependent on spew and/or what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

On the dead scum:
Regarding the rôles of our departed scum, I think novice the sharpshooter is the daytime vigilante - I suspected him for being online at the time and I see no reason to think otherwise.
It also seems that Monty's kill was decided in advance for spearheading the BSmith lynch - his doctor claim was at :59, with too little time for a new kill to be sent in.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 05:23

Tally on D3 at :29, EoD minus 31 minutes.

4 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto)

3 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo)

2 Csargo (Logic, BSmith)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Logic (novice)
1 Montmorency (Dp101)
1 novice (Montmorency)
This is when they lost it. Logic's just proposed a CfD on Csargo (remember, my towniest lean right now at 1 am). Dp101 has stated that he wouldn't be opposed (‘I'll also switch if there is more support for the idea…’).
BSmith, right after Logic and Dp appear to agree on the CFD, goes in and tries to join (actually, start) the counterwaggon.

novice tries to gain town cred for voting Manasi at :53 (5-3-2); Dp votes BSmith right then (5-4-2); BSmith counters by unvoting Csargo and voting Manasi (6-4-2); Monty steps in and votes BSmith (6-5-2). Dp looks better in this position, derailing the counterwaggon for good.

Meanwhile, Logic safely stays on Csargo. Solving Logic won't hurt, especially as, by his own claim, we won't lose any town abilities if he dies.

vote: Logic

Dp101

07-04-2017, 05:30

Agree with sharpshooter probably being dayvig, role + timing makes a lot of sense. Broadly agree with basically all of that analysis, thanks for putting it together, you can be lock town in my book.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 05:41

Ach! I see that some errata are needed.

Re: d2

All four posts have timestamps at :58. The change in mood in Csargo's posts is evident. If he were mafia he would have said nothing. Who has the time to coördinate such a response? Manasi was on duty at EoD, saw a sudden lynch on one of her partners, and sprang to action. Csargo, if mafia, would have also sprung to his teammate's defence rather than engaging in histrionics.

Re: d3

The top two waggons are scum! What a tough situation for the mafia! But they actually should have lynched BSmith. Manasi's flip all but doomed novice. At least Cuth and Monty listened to me.
Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can hide safely.
Manasi tried to vote auto and it didn't work.

Fredwood's not off the hook yet.
He flinched hard on D1/D2 while claiming not to know what flinching meant. It might just have been a side-effect of his being a newcomer who isn't used to my shenanigans, or he was an unnerved mafioso.
auto voting for him… autolycus, please come out with more on that.

Somehow I think that auto not joining the bandwaggon last phase makes him look better.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 05:43

So, for now, I think the order of lynching is Logic, then thunderdome autolycus-Fredwood. Dp101 and Winston are currently more likely town than scum, Csargo is more likely scum town than they are. Subject to changes dependent on spew and/or what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.
In chess notation: !!

El Barto

07-04-2017, 05:46

Revised version of my huge reads post:
There's eight of us alive right now.

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Most give us something to work with. Only Logic and Winston are in danger of being outposted by the GM - auto's a special case.

Our EoD tallies so far are here, with some analysis.
People with their names both in colour and bolded are those cleared by their death results.
People with a name not bolded are those whose alignment is all but certain, i.e. Cuthillius. Underlined comes, obviously, my own good self, whom you should be considering to be town. Take my word for it. My name is Bartholomew Simpson, it wasn't me and I didn't do it.

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, El Barto, Champ, Dp101)

2 Csargo (novice, Jowy)
2 Dp101 (Manasi, Csargo)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)
1 Sooh (BSmith)
The strategy seems to have been based on
not voting together
not voting each other, because the lynch required a plurality and an energetic townie pulling a Chinese fire drill on someone might have just seen a scummioso lynched with three or four votes. Or even two, with a random tiebreaker (!).
trying to vote with a townie
try not to vote with the actual lynch in order to prevent information from getting out.

This would give some town credibility to Dp101, Csargo, possibly Winston. autolycus starts by voting scum!novice alone which would break the pattern (notice how, when Manasi was pressed on D3, as I pointed out, she tried to divert attention off herself and BSmith onto him -as I've said, Manasi's been sticking to the same recipe she used last game a bit clumsily this game and it's been failing her) -all in all, autolycus would seem to be cleared, at least by D1 standards of course.

Logic? Fred? Not cleared at all.

Now let's go to Day Two.

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)
There's a mistake in the original tally, with novice also listed as voting for Sooh, whom he unvoted in order to get atpg lynched (he had the credible excuse of self-defence, which Manasi didn't)

I will assume that everybody still voting for the scummioso in such a situation is not mafia, unless they have a deeply buried busser (which is a bit unlikely on D2, see their behaviour on D1). Csargo could have said OMGUS, vote: General ChamperChief!

Or not! Let us see this tiny gem that happened when Manasi stepped in to give herself away.

Ugh.

Vote: Novice

This is mostly a protest mechanical vote because I am not wasting a lynch on a town read who could possibly die in the night from poison.

Let the record show, I wanted to lynch Barto.

LOL wtf

vote: pizza

remember not to post after :00
All four posts have timestamps at :58. The change in mood in Csargo's posts is evident. If he were mafia he would have said nothing. Who has the time to coördinate such a response? Manasi was on duty at EoD, saw a sudden lynch on one of her partners, and sprang to action. Csargo, if mafia, would have also sprung to his teammate's defence rather than engaging in histrionics.

This is some town cred for the C-man.

Logic? Let's dig in to find his vote and any justification(s).

6 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto, novice, BSmith)

5 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo, Dp101, Monty)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Csargo (Logic)
The top two waggons are scum! What a tough situation for the mafia! But they actually should have lynched BSmith. Manasi's flip all but doomed novice. At least Cuth and Monty listened to me.
Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can hide safely.
Manasi tried to vote auto and it didn't work.

Logic… is the only one not voting mafia. PIS? A repeat of the ‘let's not vote together’ grand strategy?

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith
On Day Four… everyone voting then and there voted for BSmith, except me and autolycus. It's really, really quite ballsy for autolycus to not join the waggon if scum.

Back to our list!

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Dp101 has been posting in a healthy manner and has been helpful when he had no reason to be so, e.g. handing out tidbits of the XCOM lore.

Winston's been making logical arguments when sober. See this for example, on D3 when atpg had been lynched and then revived, with novice still alive.

atpg needs a world religion founded in his name, though I'm slightly disappointed that he didn't rewrite the lyrics to Mama Said Knock You Out by way of celebration (lifetime's supply of cookies if you get the reference, pizza).

GH is lock town. Ability makes no sense for scum. As per my miller bit, Zack's bastard days are long since passed.

On Cuth, the debunking of the case on novice would be impressive from town, but truly exceptional from scum. With respect, I don't believe he's reached the level of skill and audacity where he would dare going toe-to-toe with pizza in such a manner unless he actually believed what he was saying. Which, somewhat perversely, means he's lock town if novice flips scum.

Everyone else remains in the suspect pool pending ISOs and flips.

He also locked on Manasi early on (voted her on D2 and stuck there, now again on D3 he helped lynch her by one vote). As scum he could have jollied her along in her disparagement of Sooh's posts. Sooh would have had a hard time facing a coördinated attack on two or three fronts; a relatively unsuspected BSmith by then might have just jumped in to help if all three were scum.

Logic's posts:

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith
Sheep?

Hardclaim: Advent Trooper
Vanillager claim, hi there you handsomely similar trooper!

So, for now, I think the order of lynching is Logic, then thunderdome autolycus-Fredwood. Dp101 and Winston are currently more likely town than scum, Csargo is more likely town than they are. Subject to changes dependent on spew and/or what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

On the dead scum:
Regarding the rôles of our departed scum, I think novice the sharpshooter is the daytime vigilante - I suspected him for being online at the time and I see no reason to think otherwise.
It also seems that Monty's kill was decided in advance for spearheading the BSmith lynch - his doctor claim was at :59, with too little time for a new kill to be sent in.
(No edits other than the errata in the two posts above, spoilered for your convenience)

Csargo

07-04-2017, 06:01

Oh man my second townread of the game, wow I'm honored.

Vote:Logic OMGUS

El Barto

07-04-2017, 06:05

Some last reads on today's posts:

I'm honestly fine with a me lynch here.

I haven't been able to be active, and I'm HardClaim: Andromedon and if I'm killed I become a Tree Stump (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tree_Stump). That's an ability that isn't verifiable without my death, and we don't lose my ability to provide analysis. Cuth poisoning me if he has more uses would not be a bad idea either.

That being said, I'm still a town lynch, so I'll vote: Logic.

I'm not convinced by this. I don't recall ever having heard of the 'tree stump' role prior to Monty speculating about pizza being one on D3, and it seems like a remarkable coincidence to end up with an actual tree stump in this game.

Looking at the wiki, the power does make sense for the role as DP says, but there's no reason the scum couldn't have worked this out themselves when cooking up a cover claim.

Also, I'm very wary about the idea of putting off testing a claim that includes the ability to survive death. It strikes me as unwise to assume we've got three lynches left, given that we've already seen one daykill and we still have a poisoner in our ranks. What if auto is telling the truth about being able to survive, but lying about it turning him stumpy?

vote: autolycus
This is the type of healthy reaction I like -slightly paranoid, townie man. Actually test the claim.

And then…

I think either is fine, but why auto over logic?
A townie, after lynching two scummiosi in a row and vigging the other (the town doc having the foresight not to cure the poisoned third scummioso) in the last two day-night cycles? Hmmmm.

vote: Logic

Andromedan such a good role for such an annoying thing to fight.
Hmmmm. I don't like your tone completely still, Mr. Fred. You don't care but then you vote anyway… that's off, man.

Lynch Logic, then Fred, then auto, in that order, again assuming that there's not further spew, no daykills, no night actions, and that

These two I'll owe you for tomorrow

I'll try to read Monty's pre-mortem myriad-liner to see what can be gleaned from it.

Incidentally, you should all be telling me how right I was about novice being scum and Manasi risking exposure to save him.

Who started encouraging the rumours about him being -allegedly- a third-party member? IIRC only Winston and I outright stated that we didn't want to purchase his bovine excretions regarding that matter.
As well as this one, of course.

what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

El Barto - rap out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOvDsftwD4A

Yo! Hey, what's happening, dude?
I'm the guy with the rep for being rude.
Terrorizing people wherever I go,
It's not intentional, just keepin' the flow.

Fixin' test scores to get the best scores.
Droppin' banana peels all over the floor.
I'm the kid that made delinquency an art,
Last name Simpson, first name Bart.

I'm here today to introduce the next phase,
The next step in the big Bart craze.
I've got a dance real easy to do;
I learned it with no rhythm, and so can you.

So move your body if you've got the notion,
Front to back in a rock-like motion.
Now that you've got it, if you think you can,
Do it to the music--that's the Bartman.

Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Whoa!
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Shake it out, man!
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
Bartman!
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
Uh-huh.
Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Whoa, mama!
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
Whoa.
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.

It wasn't long ago, just a couple of weeks,
I got in trouble, yeah, pretty deep.
Homer was yellin',
Bart!
Mom was too,
Because I put mothballs in the beef stew.
Punishment time, in the air lurks gloom,
Sitting by myself, confined to my room.
When all else fails, nothin' else left to do,
I turn on the music, so I can feel the groove.

Move your body, if you've got the notion.
Whoa, I'm feelin' the groove now, baby!
Front to back in a rock-like motion.
Bring it back, whoa!
Move you hips from side to side now.
Do the Bartman!
Don't ya slip, let your feet glide now.
Whoa, Lisa. Ha!
If ya got the groove, ya gotta use it.
Ha, ha, ha!
Light rhythm in time with the music.
Ha, ha, ha. Check it out, man.
You just might start a chain reaction.
If you can do the Bart, you're bad like Michael Jackson.

Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Oh, yeah!
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Shake yo' body!
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
Huh!
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
Yeah, do the Bartman.
Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Everybody, yeah, do the Bartman.
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Shake it out.
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
Whoa, mama.
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
I'm bad, I'm bad!

Do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman!
Everybody back and forth, from side to side.
Do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman!
Pick your feet up off the floor, let 'em glide!
Do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman!
She can do it, he can do it, so can I.
Do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman!
Now here's a dance beat that you can't deny.

Turn it down! Will you stop that infernal racket?!
Do the Bartman!

Oh, my ears! Lisa! Put that saxophone away!
You can't touch this.
I didn't do it. Nobody saw me do it. You can't prove anything.

Oops!

Now I'm in the house, feeling good to be home,
Till Lisa starts blowing that damn saxophone.
And if it was mine, you know they'd take it away,
But still I'm feeling good, so that's okay.

I'm up in my room, just a singin' a song,
Listen to the kick drum, kickin' along.
Yeah, Lisa likes jazz; she's their number one fan,
But I know I'm bad, 'cause I do the Bartman.

Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Hey, everybody!
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Need I remind you?
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
I am Bart, Bart-man.
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
Shake it out.

Do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman!
Everybody back and forth, from side to side.
Do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman!
She can do it, he can do it, so can I.

Move your body, if you've got the notion.
Move it.
Front to back in a rock-like motion.
Swing it!
Move you hips from side to side now.
Don't ya slip, let your feet glide now.
If ya got the groove, ya gotta use it.
Dooby, dooby, dooby, dooby, doo, wop, bop, bop!
Light rhythm in time with the music.
Dabba doo, dabba doo, dab it!
You just might start a chain reaction.
Dabba dab, doo dab
Hee, hee, hee. I'm a Bartman.

Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Swing it, baby.
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Hoo-uh.
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
Oh yeah. I'm bad. Real bad.
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
Whoa, mama.

Everybody, if you can, do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman.
Shake your body, turn it out if you can, man.
Front to the back, to the side if you can, can.
Ha, ha!
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
Oh yeah!

Do the Bartman.

Move your body, if you've got the notion.
You call that dancing? Ha!
Front to back in a rock-like motion.
(Do the Bartman)
Watch this move.
Move you hips from side to side now.
(Everybody in the house do the Bartman)
Ooh, uh uh, uh, ai, ai. Yeah!
Don't ya slip, let your feet glide now.
(Do the Bartman)
If ya got the groove, ya gotta use it.
Ha, ha, ha! Swing it!
Jack your body in time with the music.
You just might start a chain reaction.
Eat your heart out, Michael! Woop!
Everybody in the house do the Bartman.
Do the Bartman.

El Barto

07-04-2017, 06:06

Argh, spoiler tag fail! Can't edit!

Dp101

07-04-2017, 06:10

excellent spoiler m8.

Dp101

07-04-2017, 06:11

Also, I'm pretty sure Novice's death confirms that scum has no doctors left, right?

Csargo

07-04-2017, 06:15

Fredwood made that huge post defending(?) novice, that would be a head scratcher if he were scum imo. At least I think he was defending novice in it, I'd have to go back and find the post.