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"More than 125,000 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 in 118 countries around the world, according to the World Health Organization. The total number of deaths is more than 4,600."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51862347
This is just not OK, this is not "fear porn".
LOL, bro my city sets cars on fire and riots every time the Lakers win. YOu think people are gonna wake up one day and accept no more sports?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurando
Bruh, where is your prepper bunker and 50 gallon drum of mac and cheese? I can repair your water filtration system, so you need me when society collapses.
Samurai, sorry to say but North Korea is almost certainly affected. They have a lot of labor commuting to and from China. One take.
Good article about the dilemma of social costs in school closures, particularly for a big city like NYC. It's a no-win scenario. I do hope the mayor and governor have a plan to provision services to all the displaced kids when it does finally happen. You're going to see problems if half the kids are infecting their grandparents and half the rest are tying down parents from the workforce. How to keep healthcare workers on the job when their kids have nowhere to go is another issue.
Then I will put it bluntly: ability for a government to predict with certainty how it's population will react under a situation of martial law is beyond invaluable. That goes for a government here, there, or anywhere. For the record I'm not saying the virus is a hoax, just that it's overblown and moreover that it's an opportunity for governments which is right in front of our eyes is being ruthlessly exploited just like 9/11 was.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Funny but, I keep thinking back to the psychologist who more than a century ago invented the concept of Kindergarden. His though process was that if you surround a child with pretty toys and frivolity for the first 6 years of it's life that the child will be powerless to question authority later in life. We are proving him right and acting like a society of impotent sheep whenever authority tests those waters.
I don't want you to think I am not concerned for my circle of 50 close friends or for any of you guys, on the contrary, I am deeply concerned, just not about the potential impact of the virus itself. As I said in the first post "if" I lose friends and neighbours I will take the virus part seriously, until then this whole situation stinks to high heaven of something else. Something concrete which has had ongoing impact on all of our lives, not a sudden impact on them.
What exactly is your theory, then? Describe it, step-by-step. Otherwise you may as well be saying that this pandemic is just an opportunity for mice to eat all our cheese. Lay out your theory and explain the steps.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurando
That's not what Kindergarten was or is.Quote:
Funny but, I keep thinking back to the psychologist who more than a century ago invented the concept of Kindergarden. His though process was that if you surround a child with pretty toys and frivolity for the first 6 years of it's life that the child will be powerless to question authority later in life. We are proving him right and acting like a society of impotent sheep whenever authority tests those waters.
If you're taking it seriously when your friends or family are dying then it is too late. That's like saying you'll take the threat of war seriously only when there are foreign boots in the capital.Quote:
I don't want you to think I am not concerned for my circle of 50 close friends or for any of you guys, on the contrary, I am deeply concerned, just not about the potential impact of the virus itself. As I said in the first post "if" I lose friends and neighbours I will take the virus part seriously, until then this whole situation stinks to high heaven of something else. Something concrete which has had ongoing impact on all of our lives, not sudden impact on them.
Look at it objectively: if there is a threat, when is the time to begin addressing it? If it helps, start from the point where the virus is a serious threat and could be exploited by a nefarious government somehow. What then?
Pah - I'm probably the only one of you who can shoot straight and maintain his IW - you wanna be in my bunker.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
I'm an American. Of course I've shot before. Nothing further than 500 meters though. And I am terrible at skeet shooting, so don't ask me to hunt birds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
But I do want to be in your bunker. Mainly because California earthquakes turn bunkers into cement coffins over here.
Ok, I'll bite. exactly who is doing the exploiting and exactly who are these nebulous opportunities going to benefit? So far, all your accusations have been rather vague as to specifics....so ditto what Monty said:yes:Quote:
For the record I'm not saying the virus is a hoax, just that it's overblown and moreover that it's an opportunity for governments which is right in front of our eyes is being ruthlessly exploited just like 9/11 was
I already have at length, perhaps it would be better if I simplified it:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Fact: Civil liberties were decimated as legal concepts during and immediately following the 9/11 hysteria.
Theory: Civil liberties are being decimated in actuality during and immediately following the COVID-19 hysteria.
How, exactly?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurando
We can name specific consequences of the 9/11 hysteria: Devastating wars, increased surveillance, police abuses, torture, unchecked executive war powers, less social trust...
And these were predicted at the time by astute observers, so you have no excuse in vagueness.
And how would you approach the scenario where your fears about civil liberties dovetail with a virus that is in fact a serious threat?
I have no idea and I'm not in a position to even speculate, but similarly if a stranger walks up and starts punching me in the face; it's still self-evident that it is happening even if I can't identify who they are or what their motive is.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
I don't need and excuse for vagueness any more than you need an excuse for not reading what I already communicated:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
(the) ability for a government to predict with certainty how it's population will react under a situation of martial law is beyond invaluable
That's what I thought:coffeenews:Quote:
I have no idea and I'm not in a position to even speculate
Not to pile on, but this is useful reading.
https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/...ican-politics/
I dont know how things are going where you guys all live, but at least where I am, there seems to have been a massive run on the grocery stores today. Many places essentially cleaned out. Had I known this I probably would have stocked up. At least I managed to nab some disinfectant spray on Amazon, so much is sold out its insane.
On the medical front, the lack of easy testing is very concerning. I get pretty bad allergies that manifests as a scratchy throat, runny nose, and a mild cough. So of course I am very concerned. Seems like the only way to see if I have COVID-19 is taking my temperature and making sure its still in the normal range, which it is for now. Pandemics are fun.
Okay genius, have it your way then: the government, just as it always has, only has your wellbeing in mind, just like when it saved you from Osama and Sadam. It has no agenda other than to protect you and it wants you to feel free to stand up and protest whenever you feel you are wronged. If the government tells you to do something you are free not to obey, (it's not like there aren't new laws against obeying or anything) but hey, the government only has your best interest in mind. Haven't they proven that time and time again? Celebrate, you have more freedom now than at any time in our history. Right? Right?Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
-The noose is tightening my friends, with a bag over your head so you can't see the gallows and a whistling in your ear so you can't sense the drop.
The thread mentioned by you falls utterly short of this one here as to the degree of hysterics and panic-mongering. At least in the Ukraine thread no one suggested stockpiling cereals and canned products. So, keep contributing to apocalypsetoday.com.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
Stock up on allergy medicine now, like today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooahguy
Double check your amazon purchase, scammers are selling goods at normal price with 50-100 dollar shipping costs.
Water will keep running so don't worry too much about bottled water, but basic emergency supply is a gallon per person per day.
Go for frozen vegetables and other canned goods since that is what will become scarce when production drops.
Toilet paper is gone cause people are assholes but you can still use napkins, paper towels etc and dispose of the waste in trash.
Buy a large bag of rice and a large bag of beans, basic spices that can give you protein and carbs and get stretched out.
Please take care
"They" is still vague as hell. I know who "the" government is in my country. What government are you referring to? And in the US it's not simply the politicians on Capital Hill (or in each states capital), but the unwritten pact between those very same politico's, bankers, big energy, pharmaceuticals, etc., etc., etc. So in your world-view, who is profiting from your perceived fear-mongering?Quote:
but hey, the government only has your best interest in mind. Haven't they proven that time and time again?
I agree....except where my civil disobedience puts others at risk. In this case, it's a significant number of others, and it can lead to deaths. If a government cannot put a stop to that kind of civil disobedience, then we have nothing but anarchy.Quote:
If the government tells you to do something you are free not to obey
It's been a fun go, but I'm not much for lengthy discussions about politics. Sides rarely, if ever, agree, and a lot of bloviating takes place for no good purpose. It's been fun, tho'......
If Swampville is here in the States, then heads are going to roll over this at some point down the road. Monty's earlier post about testing per capita is very telling.Quote:
On the medical front, the lack of easy testing is very concerning
To make a general point, it's recommended to have 1-2 weeks of food stored in case of emergency. Also phrased as supplies for sheltering in place up to 2 weeks, as in this federal document titled Если завтра войнаQuote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
I'm confident Ukraine's emergency services make similar recommendations. Check.
I have seen a few Rory-esque memes around. A few are regarding this as "Boomer flu" since it only really has the worst affects on the older population. So there are Memes about Boris Johnson seeing this as an opportunity to fix the NHS and Social Care budgets and the like. Another about how young people will get access to affordable housing again, etc.
Whilst this is Gallows humour, as no one in their right mind would call for an agisticide in good conscience.
They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Well, the finger-pointing war has officially begun:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...-says/12055278
~:rolleyes:
And sometimes I'm ashamed to be a member of the human race:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...lians/11918962
:shame:
Its a unjust that the entirety of the nationality would be blamed for the consequences of the culnary practices of rural china and the inaction of the small cadre of party members that run china's communist government.
Thank goodness that the racist attacks only consist of very mild comments and rude waiters.
Jack Ma the Chinese billionaire is donating us half a million test kits and a million masks. Goddamnit, we are so bad at this.
[From yesterday] We're following Italy's trajectory in confirmed cases so far, despite the differences in population and in testing per capita. This is going to explode to a million cases by the end of April, isn't it? Particularly as mass testing begins in earnest (see post below).
https://i.imgur.com/wMLHB9t.jpg
Read these horrifying two stories of people struggling to get tested despite being.....
Chaser:
Uppercut:Quote:
I'm presenting mild symptoms (headache, mild fever, mild cough) and want to get tested in north Jersey. Primary care tells me to go to ER. ER tells me to call city health dept. Health dept tells me to go to urgent care. Urgent care tells me to go to ER. Everyone says no tests.
Quote:
I learned today that my daughter-in-law, her husband, and their infant child are sick. Her husband works with someone who recently stopped over in South Korea on the way back from India. That coworker developed symptoms and I don’t think has sought medical attention. Now my daughter-in-law’s husband has chills and a cough. Classic coronavirus symptoms. To make matters worse, the daughter-in-law works as a nurse’s aide in our local hospital and has had close contact with hospital patients — changing diapers, taking vitals, etc. Given the South Korea connection, the symptoms, and the close contact with a vulnerable population, they need to be tested. Obviously. Not to mention that my wife cared for her infant son, who is now sick, and my wife and I recently turned 60.
I have called our county health department and several walk-in medical clinics (they don’t have health insurance). I was given the number of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, which I had already called numerous times only to be hung up on after waiting 10 minutes each time. I learned from a nurse at one of the walk-in clinics that wait times are at least 4 hours.
I also learned that the only way to get tested in Kansas is to get approval from the KS Department of Health and Environment. My daughter-in-law called her employer, the local hospital, and they connected her with those who are screening for possible tests. She was told that she doesn’t qualify for a test because she currently does not have a fever. Never mind that her husband does. And is coughing. Never mind that her husband has been in close contact with someone who recently spent time in South Korea, a coronavirus hot-spot. Never mind that my daughter-in-law has had close contact with vulnerable hospital patients.
Btw, I also learned that there is a catch-22. If you lack health insurance and call a medical clinic with symptoms compatible with coronavirus, they will refuse to let you come in. They instead refer you to the KS Department of Health hotline, with its 4 hour + wait and with its absurd criteria that will result in a denial of testing even if there has been contact with a person who has traveled from a coronavirus hotspot, there are classic symptoms of coronavirus, and there is contact with especially vulnerable persons.
I have called the Governor’s Office (we’ll look into it and get back to you), the local hospital’s PR department, and our local newspaper (which probably will do a story on it).
This is obviously an outrage. This is why this shit is spreading like wildfire and it is a recipe for further spread. This story needs to be circulated as widely as possible to embarrass our governmental officials into action. If you have any contacts at major news outlets, I’ll be happy to share my contact information.
Meanwhile, my wife and I are quarantining separately until either my daughter-in-law and her husband are tested and receive a negative test result or 14 days expires.
Swine flu. With a quick check, I can report that the 2009 pandemic infected younger people at a higher rate than this one and ultimately its fatality rate was similar to that of seasonal flus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
COVID-19 is many orders of magnitude more lethal. In fact, it has the potential to be deadlier than the storied 1918-19 pandemic.
Bit early to be dismissive. [I love the transliteration in the URL]
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/koronavi...584092251.html
By the way, as I recall you dislike Zelensky, but can you say he's outsourced national emergency response to his idiot children? (For whom he tailored tax law to funnel millions into their pockets?)
Reminder: Trump's comments (two weeks, one week ago) about dissolving pandemic preparedness infrastructure in the federal government.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Well, he's certainly lived up to his promise to run the country like afailed businesswhite-collar smash & grab.
And of course, you always have to keep the top grift in the family. Son-in-law Jared Kushner, hot off solving the Middle East conflicts:
Quote:
Jared Kushner—who was tasked this week with carrying out research into the coronavirus to help President Donald Trump decide what to do next—has apparently consulted his sister-in-law’s dad, Kurt Kloss, an emergency-room doctor, who then reached out to a Facebook group for advice on what to say. The Spectator reports that Kloss crowd-sourced for ideas from other doctors on a Facebook group, asking: “If you were in charge of Federal response to the Pandemic what would your recommendation be?” Kloss added that he wanted “only serious responses” before writing, “I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House and have been asked for recommendations.” Kushner had earlier said he was talking to “relevant parties” and will “present his findings to the president.” After his initial post, Kloss posted a summary of the recommendations from the Facebook group and then informed them: “Jared is reading now.”
:laugh4::bigcry:
He has, finally, declared a national emergency.
Sounds like rapid national mass testing SHOULD be online from next week.
While it's still unclear how the virus got transported to Wuhan (essentially Ground Zero), I would hardly call a city of nearly 11 million people, "rural". The Chinese can be faulted for not allowing test samples to be shipped out of the country in the initial outbreak stages, a situation that was later rectified. I would venture a guess that after a second corona virus outbreak originating from China's animal markets in the last 20 years, some type of protocol will be insisted upon, going forward.Quote:
Its a unjust that the entirety of the nationality would be blamed for the consequences of the culnary practices of rural china and the inaction of the small cadre of party members that run china's communist government
That still doesn't absolve some of the world's governments slow response, with my own US of A topping the list of abysmal responses.
I have been working from home for the second day today after my company made working from home the default mode of working. All schools, kindergartens and universities nationwide are closed. As are all gyms, public swimming pools, hair salons and more. Hotels are closing for a lack of customers. Everyone that have travelled outside of the Nordic countries since 27 February is required to self-quarantine, while more and more countries in Europe are closing their borders in Plague Inc. like fashion; making such travels increasingly impossible anyway. The city authorities here put restrictions in place on how many people can use public transport at a time: all who are not seated must have 1 meter distance to the nearest standing person; I can only imagine a lot of people are finding their commute home longer than usual.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooahguy
The state of normality is currently coming to an end in Europe at such a pace and to such a radical extent that the situation is difficult to take in.
Going to the grocery store today was probably the most normal thing I've done the last couple of days. Shelves were less stocked than usual, but most shoppers should get what they came for.
If you were the only Ukrainian participating in that thread, all stockpiling would have to be up to you; so that would have a simple explanation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
If one anticipate potential disruption to the distribution of goods, having some extra food around is smart. It is also smart if there is a significant risk of getting quarantined, which is the reality in many countries currently.
The outbreak of COVID-19 seems unlikely to be able to disrupt the distribution of goods directly, but buying small amounts of highly durable food comes at a minimal cost in the wealthier parts of the world, so the potential benefit doesn't have to be very large to justify it.
Potential consequences of this virus have been on display in both South Korea and Italy already, and have been posted in this very thread. The proportions are already known: the virus appears relatively harmless for the majority of people, but there is significant risk for hospitals to get overwhelmed by abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients if big steps are not taken to halt the spread of the disease.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
I highly recommend you download and read this if you haven't already (the full report of the World Health Organization-China joint mission on COVID-19):
https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf
For everyone, especially those from countries with a less than stellar response to COVID-19, this is a very sobering read on what it takes to get on top of, and eventually ahead of, this virus.
Rather than post a bazillion links pointing out the failures of the US in dealing with COVID-19, just peruse some of the articles found here:
https://www.theatlantic.com/
https://www.vox.com/
Both are somewhat left-leaning publications, but they get good marks in securing reliable sources, and for accurate reporting.
However, from Vox, reporting on Trump's press conference this afternoon:
Donny Baby once again putting millions of Americans at risk, for what...saving a few bucks on test kits?Quote:
Trump also cautioned against too much testing capacity: “We don’t want people to take a test if we feel that they shouldn’t be doing it. And we don’t everyone running out, only if you have certain symptoms.” But while it’s true that not everyone needs to be tested, it’s these kinds of roadblocks that have led to report after report of doctors and patients struggling to get access to tests. On social media, doctors regularly complain that they can’t obtain tests for patients even if the patients display symptoms.
Then there's this:
Sweet Jesus, we are so screwed. Must be taking after his VP Pence who remarked during an HIV outbreak in Indiana in 2015, that he had to "go home and pray."Quote:
Trump, however, suggested that all this testing is not going to be necessary, because the pandemic will reside. “Again, we don’t want everybody to take this test, it’s totally unnecessary and this will pass,” he said. “This will pass through, and we’ll be even stronger for it.”
This viewpoint isn’t new to Trump. He previously tweeted comparisons to the common flu, which in fact appears to be less deadly and spread less easily than the coronavirus. He called concerns about the virus a “hoax.” He said on national television that, based on nothing more than a self-admitted “hunch,” the death rate of the disease is much lower than public health officials projected. And in February, he said of the coronavirus, “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
And then this, highlighting just how ignorant this man is about what is about to happen in the country he is leading (from a week ago):
Quote:
Donald Trump declared live on television on Wednesday night that he did not believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%. “I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favorite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.
Too bad he can't be sued for wrongful death, because this kind of attitude, and this kind of ignorance, is going to get a lot of people killed.Quote:
“You know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4%, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1%,” he said, perhaps referring to the typical death rate for influenza, which is well below 1%. Trump said: “But again, they don’t know about the easy cases because the easy cases don’t go to the hospital. They don’t report to doctors or the hospital in many cases. So I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1%.”
And lastly this gem:
I ain't waiting for your miracle anytime soon, Donny Baby:rolleyes:Quote:
Trump also appeared to reject his own administration’s advice for people feeling unwell to stay at home. He said: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better, and then when you do have a death, like you’ve had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York.”
Covid-19 is a significant global health threat. The media coverage of same is both legitimate information that we need to know, AND "fear porn." That "pornographic" effect is a by-product of the process of broadcast journalism and the 24-hour news cycle, not an attempt at manipulation or pandering.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Journalism teaches its practitioners to focus on the conflict elements within a story, as it is from the conflictual element that a story gains its power/appeal and because that is a primary tool for uncovering those facts that have NOT been revealed. So each story focuses on the problem and its potential damaging effects because those are, by the lights of journalistic norms, THE facts most important to the story. Couple that to not one hour of news from two hosts, but 24 hours of news from 12-20 hosts each of whom repeats those salient facts and THAT is what creates the over-the-top pornographic effect.
A good viewer has to factor this in and sift the facts for themselves to make a practical judgement as to their response. That is what journalism wants you to do and what you should be doing. But to suggest that the level of hype somehow means that the proximate issue is therefore NOT serious is a complete misjudgment. COVID-19 is a world health crisis of significant magnitude and it needs to be handled, at least here in the USA, a bit more definitively than it has been to date.
If anyone was pandering here it was the administration, which held on to the "Things are under control, no need to panic" mantra for a week (or three) too long. Or, even more stupidly, used that mantra while NOT getting stuff prepared to deal with the crisis that CDC and AMRID were almost certainly telling them was about to happen.
As a metaphor, "fear porn" is catchy, but you should remember that porn is, after all, sex and the sex isn't any less real for being hyped, well-lit, and over-produced.
The agenda of the secret cabal behind corona virus is pretty obvious. Schools have been closed just before the national holiday of the 25 March, the day Mary learned the good news. That means no military parades for the students, as there is no time for rehearsals. Additionally, there is an ongoing debate over the holy communion. The government mildly suggested to perhaps avoid it, but various MPs, university professors and the ecclesiastical synod concluded that it's fine, because the blood of Jesus cannot carry germs. And all this happened less than fourty days before Easter (19 April). So yeah, the Jews are on it again (and possibly the commies as well).
Watch the Italians, you'll feel better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
Well its not officially a plague until someone blames the Jews, right?
It's a plot by Trump and the GOP to mess with the census. :inquisitive:
Rory, do you have knowledge to interpret this?
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/stat...84989323718668
Quote:
1/ paper out yesterday examining patients from Wuhan admitted to the hospital who met endpoint of either making it to discharge or dying. Some thoughts.
Quote:
2/ 191 patients met criteria for inclusion (they didn't include people who were still in the hospital being treated- only if you had died or survived to discharge).
137 survived (72%), 54 died (28%)
Remember- these are people sick enough to need a hospital, but still. Wow.
etc.Quote:
3/
Median time from illness onset to discharge was 22 days; to death was 18.5 days.
32 of the 191 (17%) required a ventilator.
31 of the 32 on a ventilator died (97%).
ECMO used in 3 patients. None survived.
RRT used in 10. None survived.
How is that even going to be concluded? With all the people hospitalized, or dying, during the process? All the paranoia and the self-isolation? Are there volunteers coming up? So many layers of disruption.Quote:
Originally Posted by drone
I'm not dismissive. I'm skeptical. To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
You mean if he hasn't I should like him? My reasons for dislike are so numreous that one more wouldn't really change anything. As for Zelensky and his government, they declared quarantine having officially ONE case of covid. Today we OFFICIALLY have THREE cases (one of whom is lethal). Question: Are quarantines (not in this case, but in general) declared with ONE case of a disease? Or is the government keeping something secret from us?Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
But you still urge to hoard edibles despite of the detected unlikelihood? And panic-ridden people are unlikely to buy SMALL amounts of food. It turns into stampede shopping redounding to the general hysteria.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
A contradiction: the majority of people vs critically high numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?
No. I don't urge people to do anything, and certainly not to "hoard". If suddenly you are required to self-quarantine for two weeks, it's nice if you don't have to ask yourself on day one where today's dinner is going to come from.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients overwhelm the capacity of hospitals to treat patients in intensive care, because most hospitals do not operate with large amounts of this type of spare capacity. Even if just a small fraction of the population becomes critically ill, it will overwhelm the hospitals if it happens over a short time span. It's a lot like a natural disaster, except now there will be much fewer hospitals around with spare capacity that can help share the load because the disease is simultaneously spreading over entire countries globally.Quote:
A contradiction: the majority of people vs critically high numbers.
As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
All the cosiderations seem sound but when panic-driven population starts to implement them into actions it turns into hysteria, empty supermarket shelves and media publishing with delight daily updates on the number of infected. And again I strongly suspect that quo prosit is a relevant question in evidence of the global insanity.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
What is your thought process and/or information that leads you to this conclusion?Quote:
To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.
Haven't we had this conversation here before? Who is this someone that benefits from this particular "world-wide panic?"Quote:
And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?
The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
The beneficiaries are quite numerous. In Ukriane they are:Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
1. Politicians. All of them try to score PR points using COVID as a lever. Those in opposition say that when they were at power such things never happened and should they be elected again they would know how to combat the plague. Those at power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.
2. Media. Sensation is what they thrive on.
3. Oligarchs. Having an influence over the first and ownership of the second they reap their fruit in the wake of both.
4. Pharmacies. Purchases of anticeptics, masks and other related goods (vitamins, anti-virus medications, etc) soared.
5. Shop owners. Food, water, toilet paper and stockpiling of other kinds brings them fabulous revenues.
6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice over the abscence of educational process, so they flock together and hang out at malls and cafes, sport fields and playgrounds which makes school quarantine effect dubious.
These are off the top of my head. If one puts on his thinking hat he may come up with some more, I'm sure.
Perhaps it was Hudson? Gorman could never really tell them from one another. Neither could I.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurando
Yes Minister strikes again:
Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”
Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.”
A couple of posters here discussed stocking up, you can debate their tactics with them directly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
It's difficult to prevent people from wanting to panic buy. Significant numbers of people are going to want do that once they sense that upheaval might be coming, regardless of what the government or media says. As long as the distribution and production of the relevant goods remains normal, the situation in the stores should quickly return to normal. The kind of people that would like to fill up their basement with canned food and bottled water have probably done so long ago.Quote:
All the cosiderations seem sound but when panic-driven population starts to implement them into actions it turns into hysteria, empty supermarket shelves and media publishing with delight daily updates on the number of infected.
I don't know that much about politics in the Ukraine, but elsewhere it's a double-edged sword. Undoubtedly, the quest for increasing political gravitas will occur all too frequently. However, there will be other politicians who will lose, like here in the US where Trump is showing himself to be uninformed about what we are dealing with; if the outbreak here gets really bad (which I believe it will), someone will need to take the fall for our complete and total unpreparedness. The question will be if it's Trump, or if he will be successful in deflecting the blame to someone else. Leaders in China, Italy, Iran and elsewhere where the outbreak has been severe, will come under intense scrutiny for how they handled the situation.Quote:
Politicians.
Seriously?? How about here in the US with all the student athletes who lose a year of eligibility, or the senior athletes that can no longer participate in post-season tourney's? And that's not even to consider the assumption (false, IMHO) you make that all students are basically lazy individuals who jump at any opportunity to get out of classes.Quote:
Students
Absolutely not the case. Sure they get a lot more viewers covering this pandemic which increase their advertising revenue, but I would venture that's not enough to offset the losses from events they cover being cancelled. Some of the largest media companies in the world are here in the US and they are going to lose billions (that's billions) because of the loss of revenue from cancelled sporting events. Taking just one cancelled event---the NCAA basketball tournament (know as March Madness) generated 1.32 BILLION last year. You think CBS and Turner Broadcasting (the two media companies that cover the majority of the games) are happy about all the media coverage of COVID-19?Quote:
Media. Sensation is what they thrive on
Shop owners and pharmacies? In the short term, yes they will probably be experiencing upticks in business. Outside of price-gouging, what's wrong with that? The outbreak is not their fault, and they don't even have a way to influence ongoing events. They are a passive player in all of this.
See my earlier replies to Politicians and Media.Quote:
Oligarchs.
Quote:
The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.
No, we're not allgonnadie. But many will, some unnecessarily. And the wild-card in all of this is that the number of "most-likely to be infected" may change. These types of viruses have a propensity to mutate, and the longer it hangs around, and the wider it gets spread, the greater the chances the constant mutations they go through will result in something far more deadly than where it started from. In the 1918 H1N1 outbreak, it wasn't the first wave of infections that had the high lethality. It was the second wave that came several months after the first wave started.
I made a joke, but I do think this is going to be a big issue. Off the top of my head:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
- You can't have census takers going door-to-door while the pandemic is uncontrolled, this would be insanity.
- The worst case scenarios will remove a large number of people from the count.
- The economic situation after the pandemic is uncertain, there may be large population movement as businesses are shuttered.
They will need to wait until this blows over, but I'm sure there are laws and layers of bureaucracy to cope with to delay it. And with the hyper-partisan environment we are in, both side will accuse the other of trying to gain an advantage.
Just for s@#$% and giggles, and because I have a crap-load of time on my hands, I was thinking about the "cosmic" reasons for COVID-19 (other than small critters doing what they've always done for thousands of years).
Because I love "what-if" scenarios, I came up with this one:
What if the COVID-19 outbreak causes Donald Trump to lose the US 2020 presidential election to (pick your Democratic poison)? What if the major disaster occurring in Iran (which is likely to get even worse) causes such unrest in the Iranian public that Hassan Rouhani and maybe even Ali Khamenei are ousted? And in China, what would happen if Xi Jinping also is ousted as General Secretary of the Communist Party? What happens next to world politics?
Feel free to add/subtract or manipulate the above scenario in any way you like.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...deaths-cases2/
Some point - cases continue to rise in Italy as people defy instructions not to gather together in public, factory workers have begun striking as they are expected to continue working whilst shops close.
Panic buying in the UK is now reaching crisis levels, paracetamol is increasingly hard to find and thermometers are basically all sold out. I admit, I among many other idiots did not buy one when I left home - and indication of our poor attitude to disease.
Unfortunately, right-wing nutjobs have been undermining South Korea's otherwise-effective response.
OT: @hooah, is Georgia no longer legally obligated to ensure the integrity of its elections?
I'm not sure why you think the posting here rises to the level of panic, but prevention mitigates threat. In many parts of the world there has been subpar prevention, and the threat has concomitantly increased. (Note the inconvenient similariy to climate action.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
There is not 1 case, there are many tens of thousands. Borders do not mediate viruses.Quote:
You mean if he hasn't I should like him? My reasons for dislike are so numreous that one more wouldn't really change anything. As for Zelensky and his government, they declared quarantine having officially ONE case of covid. Today we OFFICIALLY have THREE cases (one of whom is lethal). Question: Are quarantines (not in this case, but in general) declared with ONE case of a disease? Or is the government keeping something secret from us?
Russian foreign policy is "relatively harmless" to individual Ukrainians in a similar way...Quote:
And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?
1-2 weeks supply. It can be as simple as a few kilograms of rice, beans, and oatmeal. Of course that's much more challenging for low-income (in these times, low-savings) people or those without much living space. Homeless in a pandemic? Forgetaboutit.Quote:
As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.
Some people have unproductive panic reactions, but this largely manifests (in terms of consumer behavior) as hoarding toilet paper, water, masks, and disinfectant, none of which the typical person will need in quantity. Food availability overall is not a problem. By the way, protip: in the coming days, when you go shopping you're going to want to buy a little bit extra each time. Why? First in order to minimize the number of times you go to the store, but primarily because the panic response in the population is a vicious cycle caught in a prisoner's dilemma. And there will be an acute wave of panic hitting Ukraine at some point soon. (I'm assuming it hasn't yet.)
People will, in large numbers, suddenly tune in to the necessity of stockpiling in case of quarantine, and will all rush to purchase zapas at the same time. Some food items in some locations will be in short supply due to JIT modern inventory systems. You see empty shelves, you have an impulse to buy out of fear of shortages (caused by hoarders and panic buyers), contributing to the empty shelves. Subsequent shoppers who arrive and see empty shelves experience fear, stoke conflict with other shoppers, and the cycle deepens. Thankfully, not that many people actually succumb and the supply chain adjusts within days as people saturate themselves on bulk purchases and demand reverts to the mean. Late March/early April is gonna be unnerving for you though. When you see it, remind people to slow down and that any shortages are only temporary.
Tangentially, I remember what the USSR would do to people like this.
It's scary, but there is a world beyond human affairs. Sometimes it intrudes on those affairs.Quote:
And again I strongly suspect that quo prosit is a relevant question in evidence of the global insanity.
Distinguish between we're-all-gonna-die panic and the sober many-of-us-will-probably-die reckoning.Quote:
The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.
This is such a shallow insight into world affairs. Think about how it looks applied to Chernobyl:Quote:
These are off the top of my head. If one puts on his thinking hat he may come up with some more, I'm sure.
The beneficiaries of the Chernobyl panic are quite numerous. In Ukraine they are:
1. Party apparatchiks: All of them try to score PR points using Chernobyl as a lever. Competing factions say when they were in power such things never happened and should they be elevated they would know how to combat the radiation. Those in power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.
2. Media: Good opportunity to blame the Western capitalists.
3. Future oligarchs: It's a great excuse to agitate for Ukrainian independence.
4. Pharmacies: Purchases of iodine soared.
5. Scientists and doctors: The educated eggheads get to claim domain of expertise over the incident and increase their authority and prestige.
6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice at the cancellation of classes and the adventure of evacuation.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ind-it-lacking
Here's someone explaining how it's not a conspiracy theory and certain people here (and Simon Jenkins) are talking nonsense.
Mind you, the journalist's last name is Cohen so...
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ind-it-lacking
yeahQuote:
Luck obsesses the world of the sick, which is just another way of saying that death obsesses us [...] so the world of the sick is a world of “what ifs”.
Weak (social welfare) state = weak communal and civic bonds = more panic, mistrust, and misinformation in a crisis. IMOQuote:
Having lived on the edge of the world of the sick for a decade, however, I wonder if our leaders realise how frightened people look to the state. Every crisis of the 21st century has proved the state’s centrality.
BTW
https://i.imgur.com/iRCggb1.png
One of the things that I learned from life is to not trust just one politician's and one political party's claims and accusations. I met one politician before. While I don't think he's an exact representation of every politician out there, he did give me a bad impression. The things that politicians like him do is to verbally put down the other side. He resorted to defamation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
It's interesting that it's hard to find articles on the opposition's point of view in English. I know a lot of South Koreans who support the opposition. They're not the "right-wing nutjobs" that the ruling party finds it convenient to label them as. Although the current administration is being one of the fastest in dealing with this pandemic now, it seems that way because so many other governments have done even worse. In reality, there were warnings by the Korean Medical Association about the potential for this to spread to Korea since January. The South Korean government originally ignored those warnings, which is why the virus spread so early into South Korea after China. The fact is that it was the current South Korean president who claimed that the virus in Korea would be over soon in early February. He and his government encouraged people to go back to normal routine. The cult was just trusting the president's words and held a mass gathering. The infection rate grew exponentially after that. Btw, there's no connection between the opposition party and the cult in that article. I'm not telling you which side to choose. I'm suggesting that you should have the whole story before you make up your mind about a group of people.
There are videos of Gordon Chang, who's a Chinese-American, supporting the South Korean opposition against the ruling party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNDDdDxsc-0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXKbfHTlsWs
That doesn't address such details as:
Quote:
Members of the group were told to refrain from wearing face masks as their belief in Lee and God would shield them from the virus, in some cases they were told to endure disease and attend church services. Since the outbreak, the sect has actively stifled government requests for transparency, providing false lists of church members and encouraging members to hide from authorities.
Or the information on the general proliferation of unchecked Christian cults in Korean society and government.Quote:
Conservative politicians have been relentless in criticizing Moon for not imposing a blanket travel-ban on Chinese visitors, a decision which would have had devastating impacts for a country so reliant on Chinese commerce. Conservative populists also ignored government warnings against large scale congregations and continued to hold rallies in Seoul. The conservative firebrand, Jun Kwang-hun, falsely mislead his followers – most of which are elderly and susceptible to infection — that the coronavirus outbreak was impossible to contract outdoors.
From an article on the "good, the bad, and the ugly" of the South Korean response:
Quote:
So far, South Korea and Taiwan are among the few countries to have demonstrated robust and consistent SOPs. This is not surprising given that each has invested heavily in infectious disease control following prior experiences with SARS and MERS. South Korea’s SOP essentially calls for five steps: an aggressive and transparent information campaign, high volume testing, quarantine of infected individuals, treatment of those in need, and disinfection of contaminated environments. These may seem like obvious measures, but proper execution is ultimately what decides their effectiveness.
[...]
Every expert I have spoken to, domestic and abroad, agrees that South Korea’s information and testing are nothing short of enviable. The quality of these systems, however, doesn’t mean much unless the public is willing to use them. It is here that the murkier issue of voluntary compliance rears its head, bringing along essential considerations of culture and religion.
Quote:
Koreans, quite fortunately, tend to be very socially conscious, willing to go out of their way to reduce risks for others. From the perspective of virus containment, this is an incredible gift.
[...]
Despite its advantageous culture, South Korea has nevertheless experienced notable exceptions to public compliance. By the numbers, cases involving the elderly have been most prevalent. Through the last month, we have received sporadic reports of seniors across South Korea refusing testing or quarantine. The most publicized example is a 61-year-old woman in Daegu who refused testing on two occasions despite having significant contact with an infected patient. This woman, referred to as “patient 31,” ended up infecting another 37 people. Last week, the government passed a law making violations of quarantine by infected patients an imprisonable offense, giving doctors greater authority to protect the public. Other countries would do well to consider similar implements empowering their medical and emergency staff. In Busan, we have also found seniors to be most likely to hold misconceptions and misgivings about the SOP. Part of this seems due to political leanings (discussed later) while another part is attributable to low science literacy. South Korea, as a nation, does have one of the highest rates of science literacy in the world but this characteristic rarely extends to those in their 50s and 60s.
[...]
A second, perhaps more important, group to consider are individuals of faith. Religious beliefs can have profound effects on cooperation if those beliefs come into conflict with science or the SOP. Similar conflicts are known to have prolonged the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Africa. In South Korea, members and direct acquaintances of the church group Shincheonji account for a staggering two-thirds of all COVID-19 cases . The group’s unique worship style, which involves hundreds of people cramming together in confined spaces for hours, is indubitably responsible for high transmission between members. Last week, the Ministry of Justice revealed 42 Shincheonji members had returned from Wuhan in January, making it extremely likely that the original virus carriers were among this group. Although not all details have been released to the public, it appears the Shincheonji organization also tried to hide the fact that its members were infected, contributing significantly to high outbreak numbers in Daegu and surrounding Gyeong-buk province, which together account for over 85 percent of all South Korean cases.
As for Moon's response, all accounts I find contradict your description.Quote:
Over the last two weeks, some Korean media outlets have begun putting forth a steady stream of criticism about the Moon administration’s handling of the outbreak. These criticisms have exhibited a decidedly political slant with lawmakers from the opposition United Future Party taking the lead. The complaints focused initially on President Moon Jae-in’s decision in January not to place an entry ban on Chinese nationals, a decision that remains in place. Although this ban might have helped reduce the number of infections modestly, we now know, as explained above, that Shincheonji likely had a much greater impact. Despite the new information, criticisms have not abated. Instead, they have simply transferred to other topics, such as the shortage of protective masks. As a scientist volunteering to maintain SOP compliance at the local level, I am extremely disappointed by this politicization of the outbreak. I can say with some authority that the negative coverage has started to make my job, and the jobs of my many colleagues, more difficult. Seniors, the demographic most likely to support the United Future Party and most likely to die from COVID-19, have recently started citing Moon’s “incompetence” as an excuse to dismiss or question SOP procedures, making everyone less safe and containment of the virus unnecessarily more challenging.
And how did they start to sense anything? Perhaps because they have seen or heard something in the media or from the government (in the same media).Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
Oh really? I refer you toQuote:
Originally Posted by Viking
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
This fact never prevented the foolhardy from attempts to play with the sword being sure it will cut the way they want it to.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Having a 25-year experience of working with students and a daughter who finished high school two years ago and now is a University student I can claim that it is the way I described them. And the sutuation has been steadily exacerbating.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
As to the problem in question: three days ago I informed my 35 some students of my skype and the manner of communicating with them during the quarantine. How many of them responded to say nothing of registering for distant classes? Take a guess.
There is such a thing as vantage theory. In general it boils down to the premise that all of us look at things from different perspectives and therefore see only things that are open to view from there. The same is in this case. You make conclusions looking at your environment and don't consider (and mostly are not aware of) things that remain unseen form the USA.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
In Ukraine TV channels are free (you have to buy a digital TV converter and an antenna, but that done you don't pay anything). ALL OF THEM are commercially unprofitable and are financed by oligarchs 5-6 of them owning 95% of TV channels. So in Ukraine media don't think of losing money because someone else will pay for them anyway. And having a subject to talk about for the next month or more and lots of people obliged to stay at home and watch TV will certainly increase their ratings.
As for March madness, never shared it. Watching students while you have an opportunity to watch NBA is like buying small, upripe and sour appples when you have access to big sweet ones.
It is not their fault, but they benefit from it and they may whisper in their customers' ear that it is better to buy things now before they run out of everything/ before prices soar.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
So you believe that posting here facilitates prevention? As I can surmise it is an update on the number of the infected, comparison of mortality rates and description of what is happening in locations posters hail from. All taken together it may raise the level of imminent threat feeling and when all around you keep talking of it night and day panic is just around the corner.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
I meant Ukraine where quarantine was announced whith officially 1 person infected. As for borders, the whole world would be much safer now if all outgoing traffic from China had been cut the day they showed the footage of a man "falling dead in his tracks on the street". By the way it is what China itself has done to its province.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
23 Ukrainian individulas whose job was serving in the army were killed since the year started. Yet these consequences of relatively harmless Russian foreign policy didn't cause any panic in Ukraine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
It has been sporadically spotted. As the saying goes, В любой непонятной ситуации покупай побольше гречки. And journalists broadcast live from supermarkets interviewing the anxious shoppers. Which surely doesn't redound to the panic level now does it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Do you think people will listen to cautionary voices trying to reason with them or will share in the general panic?Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Depends on what USSR you mean. If Stalin's USSR then расстрел без суда и следствия по законам военного времени. In Brezhnev's USSR it was a typical modus operandi of the majority of population so if all the goods were legally acquired it wouldn't probably incur any drastic consequences.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Wrong. There was no opposition in the Party among small fry. At the upper floors there might have been some surreptitious (and sometimes open) struggle especially by the end of the USSR but average aparatchiks ever attuned themselves to the official position and changed their attitude instantly when линия партии altered. And at the time of Chernobyl the party leaders were as monolith as ever to say nothing of their subordinates. At least outwardly it looked that way never revealing a crack in this monolith.
Media as well as pharmacies (and shops by the way) were all state-owned which means they would continue functioning they way they did whatever happens around them. So it didn't really matter to them what happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
At that time agitating for Ukrainian independence was a crime so pursued by nationalistic romatic dissidents only. Any would-be oligarch is a money-calculating person so idealistic tenets didn't (and don't) beckon to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
They were embedded into the party system so the blame for the accident was put on them in the same degree, and even greater. In the mass mentality it could be epitomized by the phraseQuote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
эти ученые доигрались.
There was no cancellation, lessons proceded as usual, moreover the Первомайская демонстрация was held in Kyiv with lots of children and grown ups getting radiation doses. Although student ever rejoice at any class cancellation, it is true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
In general, quoting you
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
And for Montmorency - another category of COVID beneficiaries:
https://golos.ua/i/739478
Yes, as they should have, since it's part of the job of the government and the media to keep people informed of such things.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
People will panic buy until they are stocked up to a level they are comfortable with. Then the volume of purchased goods will return to normal, which should not take too long as most people are presumably not trying to fill their entire basement or apartment with goods.Quote:
Oh really? I refer you to
Until recently, as resistance has started to become a serious issue, bacteria were not so scary anymore because of the discovery of antibiotics. We have no antiviral drugs with equivalent potential:Quote:
Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?
Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Agents: A Crucial Pandemic ToolQuote:
Among the myriad infectious disease threats humans face from bacteria, prions, parasites, protozoa, fungi, ectoparasites, and viruses, it is viral infections that arguably constitute the biggest pandemic threat in the modern era. The replication rates and transmissibility of viruses are two major factors that underlie this threat. However, at least one additional factor plays an essential role: the lack of ‘broad-spectrum’ antiviral agents. Indeed, while bacteria can still cause substantial epidemics in parts of the world where access to clean water and/or antimicrobials is limited, the pandemic threats posed by bacteria, such as from the plague-causing Yersinia pestis, has been substantially diminished in the antibiotic era [1]. For viruses that pose epidemic risks, on the other hand, current therapeutic options are more limited.
Viruses, by their obligate parasitical nature, must use host cell machinery for many functions. Thus, antiviral strategies must be directed at the virus specifically with care to avoid interfering with host cellular function. As such, the number of clear targets per virus may be limited. By contrast, bacterial protein synthesis, for example, occurs via ribosomes that belong to the bacteria and are disparate enough from human ribosomes in identity that specific antibiotics can be deployed to target only bacterial protein synthesis. This unique feature of viruses, which derives from their very nature, serves to delimit antiviral therapies in a manner not applicable to antibacterial therapies.
Additionally, other characteristics of viruses serve as obstacles to broad-spectrum antiviral agents. These include differences between RNA and DNA viruses, vastly different virally encoded proteins across viral families, single or double strand genomic structure, cytoplasmic or nuclear replications cycles, and degree of reliance on host proteins.
Informed or hysteric?Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
Ukrainians who survived famines and dearth of the 1990s have it in their genes to stockpile as much as possible. And shops just wouldn't keep up with the speed the goods disappear form the shelves if jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
I don't question your experience where you live. Just sayin' it's not like that here. I'm sure that there's a significant portion of students who are gleefully kicking back and enjoying their vacation, but there's a lot of students, particularly student athletes that have a future in professional sports that are not enjoying this at all.Quote:
I can claim that it is the way I described them
I would venture that you have a peculiar situation there with your media. World wide, most media companies will be losing billions of dollars because of the revenue loss from cancelled sporting events.Quote:
And having a subject to talk about for the next month or more and lots of people obliged to stay at home and watch TV will certainly increase their ratings.
You missed the point I was trying to make, completely. Of course we've made tremendous strides in medical care since then. I was referring to the complacency amongst younger people (at least here) who feel they are bulletproof to COVID-19 (and tend to be the most vocal in saying this whole outbreak is over blown). Even in its' present form, young people can, and have, died from it. However (and this is why I referenced the 1918 pandemic), viruses have a huge propensity to mutate. Now the vast majority of those mutations don't mean a thing, swapping a molecule here, a little twist in the RNA chain there, and nothing happens. BUT, on occasion, one of these mutations hits the jackpot (as far as the virus is concerned) and now things can go one of two ways; the virus gets less lethal (as the EVD virus that causes Ebola has been trying to do), or it gets more lethal (as the H1N1 virus did in 1918). Lets just hope COVID-19 doesn't figure out the more lethal pathway.Quote:
Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?
Question. Will it be hysteria if this virus finds its' way into the Ukraine at levels that other areas of the world are experiencing?Quote:
jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.
A completely neutral description is all that is necessary for significant numbers of people to start panic buying. If people had most of their information from rumours rather than news media, panic buying has the potential to get even worse than what it is now. It could be that some of the people panic buying now actually are acting more on rumours than what they personally read in the media. On of the biggest triggers for panic buying is also probably the government introducing restrictions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
There is a peak, then it calms down.Quote:
And shops just wouldn't keep up with the speed the goods disappear form the shelves if jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.
The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.
I think panic buying is both a good thing (to a point) and is also something the Government wants to happen.
If every home in the UK has more provisions than usual then the logistics of feeding the UK is easier when things get really bad - suddenly the inability to get a delivery for a few days or even a week or so just means you use your supplies rather than have to get food by breaking quarantine. Ideally for the next month or so, all shops should be being constantly restocked with as much non-perishable food being carted off as possible.
The government is also doing barely nothing to stop it - bar allowing delivery lorries to arrive earlier and later to stock the shops up. Again, priming the pumps rather than controlling purchases (bar a few items - but even then ensuring good hygiene in a quarantine is a good idea).
The elderly are probably going to be indoors for 3 months. As in should not leave their house. At all. I doubt any persons, bar the "preppers" have that much food packed away.
So, when you're at the shops do us all a favour and whilst there's still easy food on the shelves being brought in by the literal truck load, take home as much as you can afford so you will be one less headache for the government when the bodies start piling up.
~:smoking:
Presumably people are not stockpiling thermometers. Unless they intend to resell them, which is a somewhat different issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
This article is an excellent way to get familiar with what virologists are doing right at this moment:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html
While there are as many dis-similarities as the opposite (medical advancements, different social conditions, etc.), a couple of things stand out:
Quote:
If a severe pandemic, such as occurred in 1918 happened today, it would still likely overwhelm health care infrastructure, both in the United States and across the world. Hospitals and doctors’ offices would struggle to meet demand from the number of patients requiring care. Such an event would require significant increases in the manufacture, distribution and supply of medications, products and life-saving medical equipment, such as mechanical ventilators. Businesses and schools would struggle to function, and even basic services like trash pickup and waste removal could be impacted.
Prophetic? The article was updated on 17 December 2019. Can't find the original publication date.Quote:
Other challenges at a global level include surveillance capacity, infrastructure and pandemic planning. The majority of counties that report to the WHO still do not have a national pandemic plan, and critical and clinical care capacity, especially in low income countries, continues to be inadequate to the demands of a severe pandemic.3 In 2005, milestones were created in the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) for countries to improve their response capacity for public health emergencies, but in 2016, only one-third of countries were in compliance.
Rory, I see your logic and agree with it mostly. But while some fear is good to spur individuals to take care of themselves, there is a problem with this hands off approach by government.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
At a minimum, there should be laws in place during national emergencies for mandatory rationing, enforced by the stores to prevent people from buying up all the hand sanitizer and isopropyl. We want people to get their butts to the store and stock up, not see empty shelves and start fighting each other.
First off, soap is absolutely fine - if not better. I bought 4 bars a few weeks back. And we've still got some left. Shops seem to have no problem with soap.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Secondly, laws require enforcement. So how would you enforce the rules? Get the National Guard to the checkouts? And this might make people panic a whole lot more; toilet paper is a surprisingly important thing - but I imagine that the amount manufactured can be increased very quickly. Supermarkets around here are just bringing pallets of the stuff out of the warehouse and yes they're quickly being depleted. Which is a good thing.
The rates of fighting so far are much less than seen at the "typical" Black Friday event. Sure, I'd rather none at all, but this is a small price to pay for the general grasping of urgency to get stuff.
~:smoking:
Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.
As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?
For "regular people" not to know requires wilfully ignoring every outlet that is stating this simple fact. So on this front is it not supply it is that we have an overabundance of morons.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
If everyone would cheerfully accept the two per person, there would probably not need to be the two per person. So, what about when each person's child is a separate "person", or the same person just wants to pay several times? Or uses the self checkouts repeatedly? Although people have the inability to grasp soap = good, they'll think of many ways of technically following the rules whilst clearly taking the piss.
In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.
~:smoking:
Are you surprised people are dumb and ignorant!?!? Always plan based on the stupidest person you can imagine then go one further.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Most people respond to signals of authority and order. Signs that say 2 per person with an authority figure nearby cuts down on the problem more than one would think. Also you can just turn off self checkout. Also every store has their own loss prevention resource.
Most of what you are saying is easily resolvable at the moment of transaction. If someone wants to go back to the end of the line for another two, that's not even a problem. Read up on the guy with 17,000 cases of sanitizer that's what we are trying to prevent, and they are not going to risk getting arrested over toilet paper, they will find some easier scam to make their money.
In national emergencies, lack of resources is a given and the main priority is maintaining public order. If you got robbed during an epidemic that's bad luck, idk what to tell you.
Italian obituaries. Everyone watch this clip!
https://twitter.com/benphillips76/st...54071509016577
Is your problem with this thread, government responses around the world, media responses, or what? We're just here to shoot the shit with some online folk.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
If the healthcare system is operating beyond capacity, its ideal or potential effectiveness is obviated.Quote:
Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?
One estimate I saw suggested <1% COVID-19 fatality rate under normal operations, but up to 5% under overrun. And when healthcare systems are overrun, it's not just COVID-19 patients who are affected - it's everyone else relying on the system too. Cascading mortality...
@Samurai: SARS-2 is gonna kill young people just fine if they get into a car accident and it turns out the nearest hospitals are overflowing converted COVID wards.
Yes, theoretically if you implement the most effective and draconian containment regime in history and physically obstruct every possible disease vector then there is no pandemic. So far in history disease finds a way. States are not omnipotent or omniscient. The Ukrainian government does, however, have the advantage of time to view the development of the pandemic, should it choose to take it.Quote:
By the way it is what China itself has done to its province.
There was significantly more panic in 2014-15, which I gathered from reading, uh, your posts here, reading the news, and thirdhand from relatives in Ukraine (I think some of them live near Dnepr). The foreign policy situation is now stabler, as opposed to the developing pandemic.Quote:
23 Ukrainian individulas whose job was serving in the army were killed since the year started. Yet these consequences of relatively harmless Russian foreign policy didn't cause any panic in Ukraine.
https://i.imgur.com/SkMIr4b.jpgQuote:
В любой непонятной ситуации покупай побольше гречки.
:verycool:
That was, like, my point. :laugh4:Quote:
In general, quoting you
Although to be pedantic there was a mandatory evacuation of school-age children in May, out to at least Kyiv. Right? You're young enough to have potentially been affected.
In reference to the NYT article on profiteers vis-a-vis the Soviet system: there were many such people in Leningrad...Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Toilet paper is a low-margin high-bulk item, so when it goes it goes quickly in a JIT age with minimum backroom storage. Just throwing that out there. It gets restocked quick, but people shopping and seeing empty lots or shelves don't perceive that.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Stores, at least large chains in America, have already begun implementing customer limits on items such as wipes and disinfectants. This actually hurts another demographic you may not have considered: women and their families. Since women are often shopping for groups of people, as is their gendered responsibility much of the time, individual limits are much more inconvenient to them than to single young people or to profiteers.
HUMOR BREAK:
Now, there's a lot of people making this reference, but the US government response is shockingly similar to the of the mayor in Jaws.
In that vein too:
SARS 2 conclusively disproves those naysayers who argue that world governments would easily and rapidly neutralize any zombie plague.Quote:
In global disaster movies, there’s always a scientist who’s like, WE HAVE TO ACT NOW OR PEOPLE WILL DIE and some government guy who’s like, YOU’RE BLOWING THIS OUT OF PROPORTION and I’m like, NO ONE WOULD REACT TO INFO LIKE THAT IN REAL LIFE.
My apologies to those movies.
How New Yorkers deal with coronavirus...
https://twitter.com/AMAZINACE/status...30441119379458
How Norway deals with coronavirus...
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
UK moving to a "war footing" regarding manufacturing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896168
ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
It's too little to late at this point though for the limits. I'm more amenable to that argument about no limits, regarding mothers shopping for groups, I didn't consider that specific end case.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Rubbing alcohol has been gone for a while in my town. Two days ago I went to Target and still found bottles of liquid soap, so maybe UK citizens are smarter about hygiene?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Is Dettol or similar antiseptics less effective than rubbing alcohol?Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
I have never heard of Dettol, so I can't speak to this. Whatever type of chemical it is, Monty and others have shown there are some studies you might be able to find regarding a chemical's effectiveness at reducing viral load for a specific time duration.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
But to my knowledge, and I might be wrong but the main advice from the experts is first and foremost don't touch your face and wash your hands with soap frequently. Disinfecting every surface you interact with is less practical.
Finally, NYC schools closed for the next month.
(Amusingly, at the beginning of this month the citywide plastic bag ban went into effect.)
People say that we are experiencing the same level of infection, only the authorities don't admit it. Which is one more reason to get hysteric.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
As a response:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Just shit shooting which has no relation whatever to panic-mongering.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Foreign policy pursued by Zelensky is fraught with outbursts of patriotic population, so no stability. This time due to Ukrainian authorities, not Russia, thought.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
As far I as remember children finished their school at he end of May and then parents were free to send them away if they liked. I mean in Kyiv. Elsewhere I'm confident that it was this way. No evacuation - it could give rise to total panic which was already starting to spread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Because of the Trondheim University's "instruction" I prematurely lost contact with my Norwegian girlfriend and Erasmus student. And now it has gone viral. Thanks, Anne Borg. Anyway, the comment about defective healthcare infrastructure seems to have been redacted by now. If I remember correctly, the original announcement (and not the Facebook summary) specified that the issue with the United States was also the lack of public transport, which rendered airports not very easily accessible. That, to be honest, looks even more embarrassing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency