Yes, theoretically if you implement the most effective and draconian containment regime in history and physically obstruct every possible disease vector then there is no pandemic.
Thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of infected, people confined to their dwellings, tourism industry at a full stop, stock exchange market dropping, oil prices plummetting, Putin prolonging his tenure till 2036, student athletes turned into students, media corporations devastated, floor in Ukrainian post offices washed with хлорка, Brithish stocks of thermometers and soap running historically low since 1914 (and just slightly above 1066) with no chance to replenish them because the UK has Brexited and Megan is in Canada, and on top of it all Trump taking a COVID test (and everybody made sure his ravings are hard-coded and not caused by some bug virus) VS preventing people to leave China? Hmmm... Seems a tough choice....
03-16-2020, 11:33
Beskar
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.
Really?! :laugh4: :laugh4:
03-16-2020, 15:42
Shaka_Khan
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Conservative politicians have been relentless in criticizing Moon for not imposing a blanket travel-ban on Chinese visitors, a decision which would have had devastating impacts for a country so reliant on Chinese commerce.
Yes, many Koreans are aware of the economic importance of China. In fact, it was during the two previous conservative South Korean administrations that South Korea's trade and outsourcing with China grew the most. It was during the previous conservative administration when South Korea had one of the strongest passports in the world, even stronger than the United States'. But we're talking about a pandemic here. More than a hundred countries are now either banning or quarantining the entry of South Korean citizens. The countries banning the entry of the Korean citizens include most of the European countries. Many countries are banning the entry of Chinese citizens also.
03-16-2020, 18:44
Viking
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Not only has Norway, like many European countries, closed its external borders, but an increasing amount of Norwegian municipalities are now closing their municipality borders and requiring people who have recently traveled to other municipalities to self-quarantine. It's closed borders all the way down.
Then there are all the idiosyncratic rules individual municipalities have the legal opportunity to declare now because of the virus. This includes restrictions on everything from candy dispensers in stores to public transport; whatever topic crosses the mind of the local municipality administration.
It's like a return to the kingdoms of old, or the virus is just a federalist one.
03-16-2020, 19:25
Beskar
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.
03-16-2020, 20:32
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beskar
The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.
Funny how it always seems like business as usual until it suddenly isn't?
03-16-2020, 20:42
edyzmedieval
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Funny how it always seems like business as usual until it suddenly isn't?
The world is weird at the moment. It is like a slow semi-apocalypse currently led by fear.
03-16-2020, 22:57
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beskar
The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.
I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.
03-16-2020, 23:10
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.
Don't panic PVC. There is nothing new under the sun, we are just experiencing what used to be a more common experience.
This too shall pass and all that. Just stay safe and follow the Standard Operating Procedure.
03-16-2020, 23:41
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Don't panic PVC. There is nothing new under the sun, we are just experiencing what used to be a more common experience.
This too shall pass and all that. Just stay safe and follow the Standard Operating Procedure.
I'm already having heart palpitations - "don't panic" is utterly redundant.
I can't function without regular physical interaction, lack of female company in particular I find utterly unbearable.
03-17-2020, 00:39
Furunculus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
i have a young child at school, so i'm pretty much banking on getting it in the next month or so.
i'm wfh but it really makes no difference. c'est la vis.
on the bright side - the house/shed is well stocked for while the Furunculus household is in 14day quarantine.
03-17-2020, 00:39
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
the world is being brought to a stand-still.
The dominant species on the planet brought to its' knees by an organism no more than 0.1 micron in size:boxedin:
Quote:
lack of female company in particular I find utterly unbearable.
Guess you'll have to dust off all those old porn links:creep:
:laugh4:
03-17-2020, 01:03
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Guess you'll have to dust off all those old porn links:creep:
:laugh4:
Not actually what I meant.
03-17-2020, 01:03
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
So, as I'm currently adjusting to our new reality I want to make a point because pontificating helps me to calm down. A lot of people are afraid, I understand that, and a lot of people think the government should "do more" but I think a lot of people don't realise quite what's happening yet.
The UK has moved, in a couple of weeks, from a peacetime society to a wartime one. Elections have been cancelled, parliamentary debate has effectively ended, industry is being co-opted to government policy and we are all being asked to "do our bit". Quite a few people want Boris Johnson to go further and forcibly close businesses and and schools. That comes next, alongside people being arrested for being out after curfew.
When Paul Witby says we are in this "for the long haul" he's been clear what that means, but I don't think people are listening. We're not talking a few weeks, we're not even talking a few months - this could well go on for a year or more. The only way the country will be kept going will be further "wartime" measures which means the Government essentially printing money, introducing price controls to prevent profiteering and ultimately rationing to control supply - something which may become law soon if panic buying continues. These restrictions will probably outstrip those enacted during World War II if the public demands to "do something" continue.
The worst part of this will come after the restrictions are lifted, because what's left of our ravaged economy will collapse and unlike 1945 there will be no American loans to prop us up.
The epidemic is likely to peak during the Summer and then trails off before starting to pick up again in the winter because Coronavirus is basically the same thing the Common Cold - which we have no treatment for. When cases start to fall off we are going to need to decide what we want our "new normal" to be - whether we want a "war on disease" or we accept shortened lifespans in exchange for some semblance of a normal civil society. Consider this especially if you have young children, because this disease is not a threat to them whilst closed schools and loss of civil liberties and social interaction are.
Here’s something that’s absolutely terrifying: a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad testing. A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v contagious.
Holy CRAP that is a lot of asymptomatic young people. Young people are the submerged bulk of the iceberg, becoming the silent Boomer Terminators of certain members' worst nightmares.
03-17-2020, 01:42
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
So, as I'm currently adjusting to our new reality I want to make a point because pontificating helps me to calm down. A lot of people are afraid, I understand that, and a lot of people think the government should "do more" but I think a lot of people don't realise quite what's happening yet.
The UK has moved, in a couple of weeks, from a peacetime society to a wartime one. Elections have been cancelled, parliamentary debate has effectively ended, industry is being co-opted to government policy and we are all being asked to "do our bit". Quite a few people want Boris Johnson to go further and forcibly close businesses and and schools. That comes next, alongside people being arrested for being out after curfew.
When Paul Witby says we are in this "for the long haul" he's been clear what that means, but I don't think people are listening. We're not talking a few weeks, we're not even talking a few months - this could well go on for a year or more. The only way the country will be kept going will be further "wartime" measures which means the Government essentially printing money, introducing price controls to prevent profiteering and ultimately rationing to control supply - something which may become law soon if panic buying continues. These restrictions will probably outstrip those enacted during World War II if the public demands to "do something" continue.
The worst part of this will come after the restrictions are lifted, because what's left of our ravaged economy will collapse and unlike 1945 there will be no American loans to prop us up.
The epidemic is likely to peak during the Summer and then trails off before starting to pick up again in the winter because Coronavirus is basically the same thing the Common Cold - which we have no treatment for. When cases start to fall off we are going to need to decide what we want our "new normal" to be - whether we want a "war on disease" or we accept shortened lifespans in exchange for some semblance of a normal civil society. Consider this especially if you have young children, because this disease is not a threat to them whilst closed schools and loss of civil liberties and social interaction are.
One good thing about planning for worst case Brexit is that we've already planned for shortages. See, we can live with revolution and drastic changes in lifestyle. We'll get the vaccine in time, but by then, we'll have had 18 months of this, so we might as well continue in the same vein.
03-17-2020, 01:55
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
NYC special election next week suspended TBD. Dem primary still on for April 28, which seems more superfluous but...
I mentioned the Jaws joke wrt Trump, but I'm hearing now that Boris Johnson of the UK is on record that:
Quote:
Boris Johnson has revealed the inspiration behind his ambition to run London - Larry Vaughn, the mayor in the film Jaws who demanded the beaches stay open despite the ominous presence of a great white shark.
Just 24 hours after entering the race to become the Tory candidate in the mayoral elections next year, it emerged that Mr Johnson had praised Mayor Vaughn's "laissez faire" approach to public safety on several occasions.
The mayor's order leads to the gruesome death of a young boy. However, the MP for Henley said Mr Vaughn is a role model to which all politicians should aspire.
"The real hero of Jaws is the mayor," Mr Johnson said last year [2006] in a speech at Lloyd's of London.
"A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open. OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the mayor - we are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer."
I hope for your British members' sake the UK government's response hasn't lived up to the old ideal.
On the other hand, Trump is the character in the story concealing a nasty bite on his forearm...
Quote:
Asked what it was like to take the test, Trump says, "Not, not uh - something I want to do everyday...you know, it's a little bit of a -- it's a little bit of -- good doctors in the White House, but it's a test. It's a test. It's a medical test. Nothing pleasant about it."
BTW, an excellent thread on the importance of prudence and caution under threat. The analogy is to the days (2002) when a serial killer sniper was haunting the DC area.
Quote:
This somewhat prevalent “social distancing = weakness” take on #COVID19 reminds me of a story. For three weeks in October 2002, a sniper terrorized the greater D.C. metro, murdering civilians who were guilty of nothing other than going about their lives:
Carrying groceries to their car, sitting on a park bench, or mowing their yard. These victims were chosen at random. At the time, I was a Georgetown student and an Army ROTC Cadet. Local officials – as well as University leaders – were unified in their message to the public: “If we stop going out and spending money, the terrorists win.” It was simply uncool to admit you didn’t want to go out for lunch, walk across an open campus, or drive to work. Then, at the conclusion of a morning ROTC training session, one of my instructors offered a “safety brief.”
He was a tall, grizzled Sargent First Class with a combat patch, which was rare in those early days post-911.
“I know all these civilians keep saying to go about your daily lives so the terrorists don’t win, but that’s [flipping] stupid,” he growled. “There’s a damn sniper out there shooting people!” “I’ve been shot at by snipers, and I’m standing here because I didn’t walk around like some kind of idiot pretending there was no sniper.”
Quote:
The American personality tends toward defiance, and in times of crisis or massive disruption, we exhibit an instinctual cultural response along the lines of, “I’m not going to let this event change the way I do things.” Political “leadership” too often defers to this instinct. Leaders fear being seen as “overreacting” while citizens fear being seen by their peers as fearful. In the case of a global pandemic, we should reject this reluctance and give in to the temptation toward urgency. Urgency is what we need.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
As far I as remember children finished their school at he end of May and then parents were free to send them away if they liked. I mean in Kyiv. Elsewhere I'm confident that it was this way. No evacuation - it could give rise to total panic which was already starting to spread.
Here's the account of a Ukrainian close to you in age. He said younger kids had classes cancelled, and some parents sent their kids to other parts of the Union; the narrator himself was sent to Leningrad after school ended to stay with a friend's family, where he observed all passengers from the south being run through dosimeters. (You might like his channels, he moved to America permanently in the late 90s.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of infected, people confined to their dwellings, tourism industry at a full stop, stock exchange market dropping, oil prices plummetting, Putin prolonging his tenure till 2036, student athletes turned into students, media corporations devastated, floor in Ukrainian post offices washed with хлорка, Brithish stocks of thermometers and soap running historically low since 1914 (and just slightly above 1066) with no chance to replenish them because the UK has Brexited and Megan is in Canada, and on top of it all Trump taking a COVID test (and everybody made sure his ravings are hard-coded and not caused by some bug virus) VS preventing people to leave China? Hmmm... Seems a tough choice....
I wasn't diminishing the potential effectiveness of restrictions on movement of persons in delaying the spread of the disease, but reminding you that trying to discount or compartmentalize cases on the same landmass (Eurasia) leads to an incomplete frame of reference. Viruses exist in a different realm than humans do.
The most extreme quarantine measures, if you will, shrink political boundaries down to the space of a single household.
Holy CRAP that is a lot of asymptomatic young people. Young people are the submerged bulk of the iceberg, becoming the silent Boomer Terminators of certain members' worst nightmares.
This is one of the worst parts, showing no symptoms, but being able to spread the virus.
03-17-2020, 03:35
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Another night in England, with a furtive punter buying "gear" from a local dealer. Note how the punter demands to try the merchandise, but the dealer demands payment in cash before handing over the goods.
03-17-2020, 06:39
Gilrandir
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beskar
The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.
Quote:
Originally Posted by edyzmedieval
I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.
Here's the account of a Ukrainian close to you in age. He said younger kids had classes cancelled, and some parents sent their kids to other parts of the Union; the narrator himself was sent to Leningrad after school ended to stay with a friend's family, where he observed all passengers from the south being run through dosimeters. (You might like his channels, he moved to America permanently in the late 90s.)
I don't (and didn't back in 1986) live in Kyiv perhaps that is why I don't remember any evacuation. If there was any I'm sure it was done next to surreptitious because... well, it's the USSR. All bad news was kept from spreading as much as possible especially when it goes about large-scale disasters.
03-17-2020, 13:46
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by edyzmedieval
I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.
Whatever you do dont spend it watching the news.
03-17-2020, 14:15
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I wonder if this sort of crap, if it's true, is going to become more frequent in the coming weeks:
In World War Z, there’s the outbreak that causes people to become zombies, but then there’s something called the “Great Panic,” when people start to freak out and take drastic measures, like heading north because they’ve heard that the zombies can’t survive the cold. Different countries experience the Great Panic at different times. But according to the book, more people die from the panic than the actual infection.
[Max Brooks]
Quote:
Unfortunately, that happens in many crises. People lose their minds and they do irrational things and they hurt each other. You don’t want that to happen. You’ve got to make sure you keep your head when things appear dark all around you. Because, No. 1, you can’t fix the problem if you’re too busy losing your mind. Then you have what’s called second- and third-order effects, where other people start to get hurt. I’m starting to see that with panic buying. So far there hasn’t been a lot of violence, which is great, and I hope it never happens. But the mass run on things like bottled water — in a pandemic, the water is going to keep running. It’s not an earthquake.
Quote:
I think different cultures respond in different ways. Different cultures have different political systems, which definitely affects how they respond. I think the sharpest contrast is between the US and China. Everything that goes wrong in China with this virus is directly laid at the feet of Xi Jinping. He has all the power, so he has all the responsibility. Every death is on his hands. But, by the same token, we are responsible for our own deaths in this country. If we don’t like our leaders — well then, look in the mirror; we put them there. We voted for them. If we don’t like the way the CDC is handling this virus, well, who voted to defund the CDC? Who didn’t listen to the cries of health professionals saying, “Wait a minute, they’re defunding the CDC!”? We didn’t listen. We were like, “Oh my God. Friends is on Netflix. I have bingeing to do! I have things! There’s an app where I can put bunny ears on myself and send it out!” In a dictatorship like China, you can blame the top. In a democracy, in a republic, we have to blame [who we see in] the mirror.
And yet another indication that we here in the US, are perhaps in big trouble:
[Assistant Director General from the WHO, Bruce Alyward]
Quote:
Think about the virus. Where is the virus, and how do you contain the virus? You know the virus is in the cases and in the close contacts. That’s where the majority of the virus is; that’s where the majority of the focus should be. China did a whole bunch of things, and other countries may have to do them, too, as they go forward. But the key is public information and having an informed population, finding those cases, rapidly isolating them. The faster you isolate them is what breaks the chains. Making sure close contacts are quarantined and monitored until you know if they’re infected. Somewhere between 5 and 15 percent of those contacts are infected. And again, it’s the close contacts, not everyone.
Which is exactly what they did. A family member who tested positive, was not sent home (where they could conceivably infect more family members), but sent to a containment center where they could be monitored and treated.
The states seem to be localizing testing capacity in the absence of federal assistance. New York expects to be testing 6000 daily by next week.
There was some kind of blunder today where the NYC mayor announced an imminent shelter-in-place order but the governor immediately belayed it as both out of the question and not within the mayor's authority.
South Korea's unique epidemic-oriented legal framework, compared to America's.
On China's soft power campaign in the age of coronavirus:
Meanwhile, HOLY SHIT listen to the Serbian president.
Quote:
By now, you all understand, that great international solidarity, actually, does not exist. European solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper.
[...]
Today, I dispatched a special letter, because we have huge expectations... that the only one that can help us in this hard situation is the People's Republic of China.
[...]
I addressed [Xi Jinping] not only as a dear friend, but as a... friend and brother of this country. As of today, as you know, we cannot import goods, according to a resolution of the EU.
[Complains about EU barring sale of medical devices to Serbia, while also discouraging trade with China.]
I believe in the brother and friend of mine, Xi Jinping, and I believe in Chinese help. The only country that can help us is China. For the rest of them, thanks for nothing. Trust me that I will find a way to thank them.
The Western international system has been a little ineffective on this collective action problem, huh?
03-18-2020, 01:19
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
The Western international system has been a little ineffective on this collective action problem, huh?
You mean western liberal democracy. There are any number of things the international system could do. But the politicians pander to the voters, who value their individual freedom more than any greater collective system. The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values.
03-18-2020, 01:28
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
You mean western liberal democracy. There are any number of things the international system could do. But the politicians pander to the voters, who value their individual freedom more than any greater collective system. The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values.
Is that what we want, though?
Doing nothing in the UK was predicted to cause 500,000 deaths, mitigation 250,000, suppression tens of thousands.
I spoke to my father today, who is in his mid 60's with a bad chest, and he was unimpressed by those numbers - as are many local wrinklies. He seemed to think all this fuss was a somewhat narcissistic move to keep the old folks going longer so we don't have the bury them.
03-18-2020, 01:34
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
On China's soft power campaign in the age of coronavirus
Unfortunately for the US and EU, China is already past the worst for their country (presuming there will be no further outbreaks), and so can afford the luxury of extending help to other countries. China's leadership is certainly shrewd enough to see a vacuum emerging in global co-operation as countries shrink their social and economic views of the world back to their own borders in efforts to stem the pandemic. A golden opportunity for any country in their position to increase their gravitas.
Quote:
The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values
The fact that supply chains are breaking down because of "globalization" may (or not) result in nations returning to more local sourcing including resurrecting domestic production:shrug:
03-18-2020, 01:44
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Is that what we want, though?
Doing nothing in the UK was predicted to cause 500,000 deaths, mitigation 250,000, suppression tens of thousands.
I spoke to my father today, who is in his mid 60's with a bad chest, and he was unimpressed by those numbers - as are many local wrinklies. He seemed to think all this fuss was a somewhat narcissistic move to keep the old folks going longer so we don't have the bury them.
It's not what we want. It's what we need. But it's not what we want, and we elect the government, so we get what we want. That's why I don't solely blame politicians. The current lot is merely an extreme and talentless bunch who have excelled in getting votes from the people who think experts are passe.
03-18-2020, 01:47
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
The fact that supply chains are breaking down because of "globalization" may (or not) result in nations returning to more local sourcing including resurrecting domestic production:shrug:
We should making such a move anyway, to reduce fuel usage and overall waste. We actually have a government who think that agriculture and domestic food production are not needed for our economy.
03-18-2020, 02:53
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I don't know enough to say, but I feel like there was more institution-led international cooperation in the AIDS, 2008 financial, swine flu, and Ebola crises than we have now. (I hesitate to compare to the smallpox eradication because that was operationally straightforward by comparison.)
Ideally in this episode, the US government starting in January would have proposed decisive internationally-coordinated border checks and controls, as well as a consolidated monetary relief mechanism for economic losses plus at least limited temporary distribution of resources in medical personnel and equipment where needed. A transnational industrial policy regulating and stimulating airlines and medical device/mask manufacturers in preparation for inevitable lockdowns and surges too.
It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.
Ideally in this episode, the US government starting in January would have proposed decisive internationally-coordinated border checks and controls, as well as a consolidated monetary relief mechanism for economic losses plus at least limited temporary distribution of resources in medical personnel and equipment where needed. A transnational industrial policy regulating and stimulating airlines and medical device/mask manufacturers in preparation for inevitable lockdowns and surges too
There are several problems with the US (as I see it).
First, we have a president more interested in seeing the stock market remain bullish, and more interested in keeping his job, rather than carrying out his duties to serve the citizens of his country. Some of the seeds for our unpreparedness started back in 2018 when he gutted the NSC's global health unit, and followed that by cutting the CDC funds used to monitor and assist in fighting global pandemics. Last October, Trump chose to discontinue the Predict program (started during the G.W. Bush Administration) which was responsible for tracking exotic pathogens.
Secondly, although I detest the man, Trump is not responsible for the cluster-f@#$ that is the US healthcare system, and he is not responsible for the "me-first" attitude when it comes to dividing executive decisions between the federal government, and the states. Hell, the last time this country worked together as a Union was WW II. However, if strong direction from Washington had been in place back in early February, we'd be in much better shape than we are. Instead, we got "it'll be like a miracle. it'll just go away".
Something that's not talked about much by anyone is the undocumented immigrants here, which number some 10-12 million. You think very many of them have health insurance? or will risk deportation by going to see a doctor? Not likely. Sorry, Monty, this administrations legacy is not going to being its' unshakable leadership, but instead it will be buried in the ground with all those people who are about to die. (and for all I know, one of them could be me...I'm 67)
That report is more than a bit of fear-mongering because it focuses on the "do-nothing" scenario. 550,000 dead in the UK? 2.2 million in the US? Even the H1NI out-break of 1918 didn't kill that many in those two countries. However, their assessment of the stress on the health-care system is spot-on, IMHO, and the paper is definitely worth the read.
It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.
Given the side effects with the last rushed vaccine (Narcolepsy), for many just getting the damn illness would probably be less risky on balance; elderly and inform need a vaccine.
It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.
Just assume this is never going to end, restrictions will need to be lifted somewhat or civil society will break down but they won't be lifted completely. Your model here is the Great Plague and th ensuing further waves of Plague, not Spanish Flue.
Meanwhile, all the old wrinklies are excited to get the disease because it's something modern science can't save them from. My parents tell me the local pubs where they live are still doing a brisk trade.
03-18-2020, 16:55
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Just assume this is never going to end, restrictions will need to be lifted somewhat or civil society will break down but they won't be lifted completely. Your model here is the Great Plague and th ensuing further waves of Plague, not Spanish Flue.
Meanwhile, all the old wrinklies are excited to get the disease because it's something modern science can't save them from. My parents tell me the local pubs where they live are still doing a brisk trade.
Went round to my old (in both senses) neighbours today to check up on them and offer to top up their supplies. Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?
03-18-2020, 19:03
Beskar
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?
Yup.
I heard though locally the supermarkets are all going to close for 12 hours to completely restock, then open up with "elderly hour" when only elders can buy items for two hours to give them a chance.
03-18-2020, 19:06
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Went round to my old (in both senses) neighbours today to check up on them and offer to top up their supplies. Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?
Yup, right down to the fresh veg now.
I'm predicting government rationing in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, wandering around Sainsbury's I did see tinned tomatoes, so maybe they're starting to get a grip of it.
I want to say this can't last much longer but my impression is that the panic is spreading, so the first lot of idiots stock up, then the next lot of slightly less selfish idiots panic at the empty shelves, and so on and so on.
03-18-2020, 19:09
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Eurovision contest is cancelled.
Every cloud...
03-18-2020, 19:28
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Yup, right down to the fresh veg now.
I'm predicting government rationing in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, wandering around Sainsbury's I did see tinned tomatoes, so maybe they're starting to get a grip of it.
I want to say this can't last much longer but my impression is that the panic is spreading, so the first lot of idiots stock up, then the next lot of slightly less selfish idiots panic at the empty shelves, and so on and so on.
Remember what I said about supply chains?
03-18-2020, 21:36
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Remember what I said about supply chains?
Truthfully, not specifically. This isn't a supply-side problem, though, it's a demand-side one.
03-18-2020, 22:39
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Truthfully, not specifically. This isn't a supply-side problem, though, it's a demand-side one.
Exactly. We are seeing these problems because consumers are anticipating shortages and buying in bulk, and the intact supply chain, still operating as normal, hasn't been able to cope. The problem has been at the consumer end. What do you think will happen when that supply chain gets broken?
03-18-2020, 23:30
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Exactly. We are seeing these problems because consumers are anticipating shortages and buying in bulk, and the intact supply chain, still operating as normal, hasn't been able to cope. The problem has been at the consumer end. What do you think will happen when that supply chain gets broken?
Demand is currently 10x what it normally is - do you think supply will drop to 1/10?
03-18-2020, 23:59
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Apologies for the aside on New York testing capacity, apparently 6000 daily was the target for the beginning of this week, which I assume we've met. Now, last I heard, we should hit 7000 daily by the end of this week, I guess. Hard to sort through the timeline of this rapid news cycle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
First, we have a president more interested in seeing the stock market remain bullish, and more interested in keeping his job, rather than carrying out his duties to serve the citizens of his country. Some of the seeds for our unpreparedness started back in 2018 when he gutted the NSC's global health unit, and followed that by cutting the CDC funds used to monitor and assist in fighting global pandemics. Last October, Trump chose to discontinue the Predict program (started during the G.W. Bush Administration) which was responsible for tracking exotic pathogens.
Secondly, although I detest the man, Trump is not responsible for the cluster-f@#$ that is the US healthcare system, and he is not responsible for the "me-first" attitude when it comes to dividing executive decisions between the federal government, and the states. Hell, the last time this country worked together as a Union was WW II. However, if strong direction from Washington had been in place back in early February, we'd be in much better shape than we are. Instead, we got "it'll be like a miracle. it'll just go away".
Something that's not talked about much by anyone is the undocumented immigrants here, which number some 10-12 million. You think very many of them have health insurance? or will risk deportation by going to see a doctor? Not likely. Sorry, Monty, this administrations legacy is not going to being its' unshakable leadership, but instead it will be buried in the ground with all those people who are about to die. (and for all I know, one of them could be me...I'm 67)
Over the course of WW2 US GDP doubled, and the majority of that GDP was government spending. Wages and living standards generally improved over the course of the war, and we experienced a historically-low amount of either political or military violence in the homeland. AFAIK it was the only war in American 20th century history that gained public approval over time. It was also a time of extensive grassroots organization toward communal and political empowerment, which is what arguably enabled an activist government. Today's society is much more fragmented and passive. Particular sectarian forces have embraced and intensified these facts...
Unauthorized workers are the most vulnerable actors in some of the most vulnerable industries, so events just pushed our underclass even deeper into the margins of poverty. Any forthcoming government relief programs will probably bypass them. Hopefully they have some advantage in mutual aid norms to soften the blow, though this far into the subject maybe we should be looking out for local services organizations to support.
On the subject of harm reduction and utilitarian economic crisis management over the long haul: Hospitals across the country will overflow in about a month. This experience will viscerally change a lot of people's intuitions and calculations about what level and depth of disruption they are willing to accept. If our cultural impatience leads us to tolerate or agitate for state and federal governments overturning social distancing measures just before the caseload reaches critical mass - I'm not sure irony would be the right term for that, but I don't know what is.
Yet despite promises of a “whole of government” effort, key agencies — like the Army Corps of Engineers, other parts of the Defense Department, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Veterans Affairs — had not been asked to play much of a role.
Even after Mr. Trump committed to supporting the states on Tuesday, the Army Corps of Engineers said it still had not received direction from the administration.
“We need the federal government to play its role,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said Monday. “The federal government has tremendous capacity.”
Much of that capacity is untapped. Hospital ships are at port. The Department of Veterans Affairs, legally designated as the backup health care system in national emergencies, awaits requests for help. The veterans department has a surplus of beds in many of its 172 hospital centers and a robust number of special rooms for patients with breathing disorders.
The sprawling system of emergency doctors and nurses ready to be deployed by the Department of Health and Human Services — known as the National Disaster Medical System — is also still waiting for orders, other than to staff locations where passengers offloaded from cruise ships are being quarantined.
And the Defense Department, home to 1.3 million active-duty troops and a civilian and military infrastructure that has made planning for national emergencies almost an art form, has yet to be deployed to its fullest capabilities. Senior Pentagon officials say they are ready to assist in any way that is ordered, but they also caution that much of the military’s emergency medical care is designed for combat trauma or natural disasters, and not mass quarantine for infections.
The last time a big infectious disease epidemic emerged, President Barack Obama dispatched nearly 3,000 American troops to Liberia to build hospitals and treatment centers to help fight Ebola. The Pentagon opened a joint command operation at a hotel in Liberia’s capital, Monrovia, to coordinate the international effort to combat the disease, and the American military provided engineers to help construct additional treatment facilities and sent people to train health care workers in West Africa to deal with the crisis.
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Demand is currently 10x what it normally is - do you think supply will drop to 1/10?
5% from our biggest trading partner, according to the rules. Approx. 30,000 journeys per year currently, 1500 passes as a non-EU partner going by other non-member partners. What do you think the exercises and plans to turn the Dover-London route into a giant customs post were? When I quoted the experts on this issue, I was pooh-poohed as obviously things won't get that bad. We've now seen a taster of what it's going to be like, except the supply-side hasn't yet been shrunk. The supply-side is working normally, and we're already seeing empty shelves.
Let's have a referendum instructing the government to solve the Coronavirus problem. I'm sure the Will of the People will be a mandate that will solves all problems.
What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act:thwack: Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....
Am I the only one who begins and ends the day with the morbid ritual of reviewing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Interactive World Map?
On the subject of harm reduction and utilitarian economic crisis management over the long haul: Hospitals across the country will overflow in about a month.
Here in the States, we are trending about 10 days behind the Italians. At our current pace, confirmed cases are doubling every 5 days, although some of the new reports are undoubtedly due to the increasing number of tests being conducted.
03-19-2020, 04:17
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
On the lighter side of all this, is what some countries consider "essential" when ordering shut-downs:
Quote:
But it turns out that what’s “essential” can vary from country to country. Amsterdam’s marijuana-supplying coffee shops remain open. Belgium’s french-fry stands are still serving up doses of greasy potatoes. Parisian wine shops — bien sûr — can still be paid a visit.
Quote:
In Berlin, authorities have included bike shops on the list of essential services — a perhaps understandable measure at a time when people are being urged to avoid public transportation.
Quote:
Italy remains the European country hardest-hit by the coronavirus, and there are few exceptions to its near-total shutdown. But newsstands remain open, a quaint and sweet measure that allows older residents a chance to read the papers. A small number of bread shops and bakeries have decided to stay open for takeaway service or delivery. And there is at least one Roman gelateria doing deliveries
What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act:thwack: Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....
Am I the only one who begins and ends the day with the morbid ritual of reviewing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Interactive World Map?
Here in the States, we are trending about 10 days behind the Italians. At our current pace, confirmed cases are doubling every 5 days, although some of the new reports are undoubtedly due to the increasing number of tests being conducted.
I highly recommend not staring at the numbers or the news all day.
Take this time to draw, paint, practice an instrument and otherwise doing things that bring joy into your life.
Spend your down time with your kids, read your favorite novels and dusty books sitting on the shelf.
Don't be a dick because you are stressed out.
03-19-2020, 08:36
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Hell, maybe you could even play some total war.
03-20-2020, 00:31
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Minnesota and Vermont declare grocery store workers emergency personnel eligible for such benefits as free childcare.
Spitballing on pandemic relief: Take whatever cash relief program gets implemented, and attach bonuses to the receipt of a completed census form.
More comparisons of South Korea and US in their responses. Interesting: The first COVID-19 case was identified on the same day in both countries.
Article on the appalling lack of data on COVID-19 prevalence and icidents rates and the mortality of the disease, as well as the lack of data on the efficacy of social distancing measures given their potential enormous medium-term costs. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/
The author, John Ioannidis, even I know has stature as an academic superstar.
Counterpoint: An immediate rebuttal published on the same site, arguing that we already know what happens (China, Iran, Italy) without control measures, and that exponential growth is inevitable without controls until herd immunity is reached (in author's assertion ~half the population). https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/...inst-covid-19/
Samurai might be especially interested in the debate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act:thwack: Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....
Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness
Intelligence Chair Richard Burr’s selloff came around the time he was receiving daily briefings on the health threat.
Soon after he offered public assurances that the government was ready to battle the coronavirus, the powerful chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr, sold off a significant percentage of his stocks, unloading between $582,029 and $1.56 million of his holdings on Feb. 13 in 29 separate transactions.
[...]
Burr is not a particularly wealthy member of the Senate: Roll Call estimated his net worth at $1.7 million in 2018, indicating that the February sales significantly shaped his financial fortunes and spared him from some of the pain that many Americans are now facing.
[...]
According to the NPR report, Burr told attendees of the luncheon held at the Capitol Hill Club: “There’s one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history ... It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”
Quote:
Burr’s public comments had been considerably less dire. In a Feb. 7 op-ed that he co-authored with another senator, he assured the public that “the United States today is better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus.” He wrote, “No matter the outbreak or threat, Congress and the federal government have been vigilant in identifying gaps in its readiness efforts and improving its response capabilities.”
Members of Congress are required by law to disclose their securities transactions.
Burr was one of just three senators who in 2012 opposed the bill that explicitly barred lawmakers and their staff from using nonpublic information for trades and required regular disclosure of those trades. In opposing the bill, Burr argued at the time that insider trading laws already applied to members of Congress. President Barack Obama signed the bill, known as the STOCK Act, that year.
:whip:
03-20-2020, 02:02
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Kinda figured all the "Nays" were rank-and-file Republicans, although not all of them Trump supporters. Rand Paul (R-KY) was also the only "Nay" vote on the $8.3 billion coronavirus spending bill the Senate passed earlier this month. That he's voted this way might be suggested by a statement he made last year concerning Ebola, showing a similar lack of detail as Trump:
Quote:
Ebola is “incredibly contagious” [and] can spread from one person to another standing three feet away.
(Ebola is spread through transmission of bodily fluids).
All 8 Senators are in states that currently have low incidences of COVID-19 cases except Texas which has the 10th most:shrug:
How one small town at the center of the outbreak has cut infections virtually to zero: test all 3,300 in town, isolate the 3 percent who tested positive. Infection rate 10 days later down to .3 percent.
We can be less sanguine about yet another Senator discovered to be inside-trading off pandemic briefings. And she's the wife of the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. Cool. https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-ke...virus-briefing
Worst of all, millions of unemployment insurance claims imminent.
03-20-2020, 05:56
Hooahguy
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
New York City is 2-3 weeks away from exhausting their stocks in key supplies. Every day that goes by I get more anxious. Where I am now it doesn't seem like a shelter in place will be ordered soon for my city, but every day that goes by it seems likelier. Of the report I saw, over half of the new cases today were under 40. And yet when I walk my dog I see people congregating and its freaking me out.
New York City is 2-3 weeks away from exhausting their stocks in key supplies. Every day that goes by I get more anxious. Where I am now it doesn't seem like a shelter in place will be ordered soon for my city, but every day that goes by it seems likelier. Of the report I saw, over half of the new cases today were under 40. And yet when I walk my dog I see people congregating and its freaking me out.
The number is growing partly because of a dramatic increase in testing. New York has cumulatively tested 22,000 people, including more than 7,500 in the past day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
HOLD UP
1. So the authorities previously said that by the end of the week they would be testing up to 7000 a day. They've already exceeded that target?
2. The Reuters article I linked recently reported a cumulative 60000 tests performed in the United States by Tuesday.
3. Assuming that on Thursday at the time of reporting the cumulative number of tests performed remained under 100000, then New York State, representing 6% of the American population, has conducted up to 1/3 of all COVID-19 tests in this country to date.
Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.
Alternatively, other national leaders should be burned in effigy.
Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.
If he continues to manage the outbreak the way a person in leadership should, guess who's a strong candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024:creep:
03-20-2020, 19:17
Csargo
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
The number is growing partly because of a dramatic increase in testing. New York has cumulatively tested 22,000 people, including more than 7,500 in the past day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
HOLD UP
1. So the authorities previously said that by the end of the week they would be testing up to 7000 a day. They've already exceeded that target?
2. The Reuters article I linked recently reported a cumulative 60000 tests performed in the United States by Tuesday.
3. Assuming that on Thursday at the time of reporting the cumulative number of tests performed remained under 100000, then New York State, representing 6% of the American population, has conducted up to 1/3 of all COVID-19 tests in this country to date.
Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.
I read last night that 10 counties represent ~90% of all testing in the US so far, which seems crazy at this point. Read this as well. :wall:
03-20-2020, 19:23
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.
When will the Cuomo family get a bridge named after them?
03-20-2020, 20:43
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I was just out for a walk about the neighborhood, early afternoon local. First time outside since last week. I was shocked at how much foot activity there is on the streets, perhaps even more than is typical. A few parents with kids, but not many sub-thirties overall. No more than a third of people masked (not counting service employees), which may be a good or a bad sign depending on how one looks at it.
Some establishments closed. Clothing, dental, insurance, you expect that. Restaurants of course open for pick-up. But another surprise was just how many places are active. Subways (sandwich chain) was closed, but Verizon was open. Bike hardware, liquor, glasses, dry cleaner, even hairdresser stores all open!
I wonder how the situation will develop into the spring.
Edit: Gotta police those surfaces, most significant transmission vector. So I used a hand covering to open doors. But see, habit is hard to break - leaving one shop I absent-mindedly pushed open the door with the uncovered hand.
I bought some takeout from a Chinese place. A year ago, lunch specials were ~$6.50 (including tax). Recently they've been $8. I was a little sheepish, but also disappointed, when they charged the same today. I somehow expected their prices to be discounted. :sweatdrop:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
If he continues to manage the outbreak the way a person in leadership should, guess who's a strong candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024:creep:
I'll affect a diplomatic disposition and offer that we have had enough of New Yorkers in presidential politics lately.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Csargo
I read last night that 10 counties represent ~90% of all testing in the US so far, which seems crazy at this point. Read this as well. :wall:
Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered nonessential businesses to keep 100% of their workforce at home.
He also put in place stringent new restrictions on New Yorkers starting Sunday as the state grapples with the worst coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.
Cuomo said food delivery qualifies as an essential service.
Quote:
“When I talk about the most drastic action we can take, this is the most drastic action we can take,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany. Cases across the state surged by 2,950 overnight to 7,102, he said. “This is not life as usual. Accept it. Realize it and deal with it.”
Cuomo acknowledged that the restrictions will force businesses to close and people to lose their jobs, adding that he’s suspending evictions across the state for 90 days.
“We’re all in quarantine now. We’re all in various levels of quarantine and it’s hard,” he said.
Well, now I know. And knowing is half the battle. :laugh4:
03-20-2020, 21:15
Viking
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
According to the source I am currently looking at, South Korea now has a case fatality rate of 0.84%. This a country that has taken testing to an extreme level:
According to the same source, the case fatality rate for South Korea is now close to 1.1 percent.
03-20-2020, 21:15
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
I was just out for a walk about the neighborhood, early afternoon local. First time outside since last week. I was shocked at how much foot activity there is on the streets, perhaps even more than is typical. A few parents with kids, but not many sub-thirties overall. No more than a third of people masked (not counting service employees), which may be a good or a bad sign depending on how one looks at it.
Some establishments closed. Clothing, dental, insurance, you expect that. Restaurants of course open for pick-up. But another surprise was just how many places are active. Subways (sandwich chain) was closed, but Verizon was open. Bike hardware, liquor, glasses, dry cleaner, even hairdresser stores all open!
I wonder how the situation will develop into the spring.
Edit: Gotta police those surfaces, most significant transmission vector. So I used a hand covering to open doors. But see, habit is hard to break - leaving one shop I absent-mindedly pushed open the door with the uncovered hand.
I bought some takeout from a Chinese place. A year ago, lunch specials were ~$6.50 (including tax). Recently they've been $8. I was a little sheepish, but also disappointed, when they charged the same today. I somehow expected their prices to be discounted. :sweatdrop:
Thanks for the update Monty. Studies have shown that people need exposure to the outside to maintain mental health anyway.
What surprises me about your post is the number of establishments still open. On one hand I could see how impractical it would be to enforce non-essential businesses to close in NYC, but on the other hand public opinion regarding the virus has swung rapidly over the past week with a majority of people now feeling very concerned about the virus.
I would say treat every door like the bathroom door at an Olive Garden, just use a paper towel to open and close as needed to prevent direct contact.
Maybe we will see the return of the handkerchief into society?
Quote:
Tappan Zee replacement. It is done.
Wow, and I was joking. I thought you guys only named bridges according to their connecting streets or Revolutionary War figures.
03-20-2020, 22:48
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
but on the other hand public opinion regarding the virus has swung rapidly over the past week with a majority of people now feeling very concerned about the virus.
When you see the folks over at Fox News slamming the tranny into hard reverse, you know something is afoot:oops:
And with the virus now reaching into the poorer areas of the world with far less medical resources, like Africa, S. America, Central America, we'll soon see whether the reporting since this all began was just "hype":boxedin:
03-21-2020, 02:29
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
What is the UK government doing in terms of relief? Substituting lost wages like Denmark?
As reported cases of the virus in the United States have soared, Mr. Trump, who is known to recruit input from a variety of outside advisers, has been getting conflicting advice. The proliferating number of private sector voices with direct access to the president and his top advisers — notably his son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner — has resulted in a chaotic process.
The president’s advisers say they see the role of the federal government as a facilitator, as opposed to the chief producer or a national governor. They have tried to encourage states to get by with what they can, suggesting there will be support from the federal government but that this should not be the first option.
In practice, the administration has been trying to use the provision to jawbone companies into taking voluntary action while holding over them the possibility that the federal government would intervene, according to administration officials familiar with the state of play.
“We’re actually encouraged that the partnership with the private sector can meeting many of these needs,” said Marc Short, Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff, on Friday morning in a discussion with reporters.
Congressional testimony earlier [last] week featured an illuminating exchange between Representative Andy Harris, a Republican and medical doctor, and Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Harris mainly wanted to use his time questioning the officials who were testifying before Congress to attack a Democratic proposal to lower drug costs for people on Medicare (Harris worries it would stifle “innovation” in the lucrative world of vaccine manufacturing) and to praise the superior ability of the private sector to handle such crises.
The problem, though, was that the private sector hasn’t yet done anything to slow down the virus. “Quest and LabCorp now are geared up to do [coronavirus tests],” Harris asked. “Could they have geared up sooner?”
“As a clinician like yourself,” Redfield said in his answer, “I guess I anticipated that the private sector would have engaged and helped develop it for the clinical side.” He finished his response with more bewilderment: “I can tell you, having lived through the last eight weeks, I would have loved the private sector to be fully engaged eight weeks ago.”
Here were two men wondering aloud why reality had failed to conform to their ideology. Where was the private sector, exactly, during these eight weeks? How odd that these companies, whose only responsibility is to their shareholders, had failed to make up for the incompetence of this administration.
President Donald Trump excoriated an NBC News correspondent as a “terrible reporter” on Friday after he asked the president to calm Americans who were scared because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump’s latest personal broadside on the media came at a news briefing in which he appeared to minimize the fears of the American public by saying there was cause for optimism about drug therapies for coronavirus — treatments that one of his top government scientists had said were not at all proven.
At the Trump administration's coronavirus task force's daily briefing, Trump’s director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, made clear that any evidence about drug therapies being tested at the moment was strictly “anecdotal” and not the product of a “clinical trial.”
“You really can’t make any definitive statement about it,” Fauci said.
Moments earlier, Fauci was asked whether there was any evidence that one such drug— hydroxychloroquine — might be used as an effective prophylactic measure against coronavirus.
"The answer is no," Fauci replied.
Trump nevertheless said that he felt "good" about the treatments and that the federal government had already ordered "millions of units" of them.
NBC News’ Peter Alexander, a White House correspondent and a weekend anchor of "TODAY," then asked Trump whether his “positive spin” regarding the potential treatments was giving Americans false hope.
“Is it possible that your impulse to put a positive spin on things may be giving Americans a false sense of hope?” Alexander asked.
“No, I don’t think so,” Trump replied.
“It may work, it may not work, Trump said. “I feel good about. That’s all it is, it’s a feeling.”
Alexander responded by asking Trump to talk directly to Americans who are scared by the pandemic, which triggered the president to reply with an insult.
"What do you say to Americans who are scared though? I guess, nearly 200 dead, 14,000 who are sick, millions, as you witnessed, who are scared right now," Alexander asked. "What do you say to Americans who are watching you right now who are scared?"
“I say that you’re a terrible reporter,” Trump said. “That’s what I say. I think that’s a very nasty question.”
"The American people are looking for answers and they’re looking for hope, and you’re doing sensationalism," Trump said.
"Let’s see if it works," the president added about possible treatments. "It might and it might not. I happen to feel good about it, but who knows, I’ve been right a lot. Let’s see what happens," he added.
For all our lives, there are very few people we will ever be as psychologically intimate with as we have become with Donald Trump.
03-21-2020, 03:08
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
What is the UK government doing in terms of relief? Substituting lost wages like Denmark?
Never stop pointing out the political pathologies that brought us here.
Not only the responses to the virus, but also cutting funding for the health service as a matter of ideology. Remember Furunculus arguing his Brexit guru's idea of reducing state spending to x% of the economy? And my pointing out that the dream "Singapore-style economy" doesn't work for a country bigger than a city state, and government ministers actually going further than my warnings and saying that the UK does not need a food-producing industry. The neolibs understand the economy only as a matter of numbers and money, without understanding that the money actually represents something real, that no amount of political posturing can replace.
Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.
People like to talk about the "Liberal-Capitalist economy" or whatever but our economic model is an outgrowth of our social system - not the other way around.
Social distancing is fundamentally unnatural and inherently psychologically damaging, the longer we do it the worse the damage will be - especially for children. I have some idea of what I speak - having been home-schooled after ruthless bullying, for 18 months - after which my mother sent me to a larger school. It's probably not true to say I "never recovered" but those 18 months put me so far behind developmentally I missed out on all the good bits of being a teenager trying to catch up.
We have forgotten this but grandparents dying of pneumonia is a normal occurrence (one we'd virtually eliminated) whilst not being able to see or hug the ones you love for a year or more is not.
03-21-2020, 04:01
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
That guy's voice really grinds my gears.
Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.
People like to talk about the "Liberal-Capitalist economy" or whatever but our economic model is an outgrowth of our social system - not the other way around.
Social distancing is fundamentally unnatural and inherently psychologically damaging, the longer we do it the worse the damage will be - especially for children. I have some idea of what I speak - having been home-schooled after ruthless bullying, for 18 months - after which my mother sent me to a larger school. It's probably not true to say I "never recovered" but those 18 months put me so far behind developmentally I missed out on all the good bits of being a teenager trying to catch up.
We have forgotten this but grandparents dying of pneumonia is a normal occurrence (one we'd virtually eliminated) whilst not being able to see or hug the ones you love for a year or more is not.
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
...what?
Long term quarantine and social distancing is going to cause increased misanthropy in society.
03-21-2020, 10:42
Crandar
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
An interesting paper on the possible effects of different strategies (involving mitigation or suppression) against the current pandemic. It's only 20 pages, so it's worth a reading.
03-21-2020, 11:09
edyzmedieval
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Day 12 since I've been at home, working from home as well... and as someone who is very social, this is really starting to wear me down.
Sure, I've got a lot of stuff to do - work, read, learn new things which I always postponed, game, write (check out my story in the Mead Hall!) and other things but it's the idea of staying in the house for at least another month that's horrid.
03-21-2020, 11:43
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
...what?
In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.
How many old people will die of "not coronavius" without ever seeing their grandchildren again?
03-21-2020, 12:23
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.
Quote:
but it's the idea of staying in the house for at least another month that's horrid.
Quote:
In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.
Quote:
Long term quarantine and social distancing is going to cause increased misanthropy in society.
Seriously people???:rolleyes:
A line from "Heartbreak Ridge" comes to mind: "You adapt. You overcome. You improvise. Let's move. Four minutes."
In the UK an "additional 250,000 lives". In the US an "additional 1-2 million lives". In the entire world an additional [add your own statistical favorite number]. Maybe we should just adopt the asinine "herd mentality" and let the virus run ape-s&*% across the planet, killing millions, and then use the survivors as blood-bags to inoculate everyone else:shame:
Look...quarantine is most certainly a bitch. You hear from just about every virologist out there, that because this sucker is so infectious, breaking the infection chain is crucial to stopping this virus. But until a vaccine is developed, quarantine is the best weapon in the arsenal to slow down the spread of the virus. Another famous movie line comes to mind (from The Terminator): "Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead!"
