HA HA HA! Iran is a threat to my armpit and that's about it!

[Divinus Arma]

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/200.../index.html?hp

Awesome. Proof that Iran's military is bumbling and incompetent. And just one more reason not to dump a bunch of death on them.



Iran reminds me of Iraq: Lots of talk and bluster, but ultimately a worthless military.

The fourth missile “has apparently been added in digital retouch to cover a grounded missile that may have failed during the test,” the agency said.

Only one of them was said to be a Shahab 3.

"We will kill you! We will kill you! Oh crap my rusty gun just fell apart. Run away! Run away!"



All talk and no walk. They don't deserve to be bombed. They deserve to be ignored.

[Marshal Murat]

Even though the ants don't threaten your garden, you still smash them with chemicals, (or is that just me?)

[Crazed Rabbit]

Iran's not an existential threat to the US; they are a great threat to some of our allies, though.

And might as well give credit to the blog that first uncovered this: http://littlegreenfootballs.com/arti...Missile_Launch

Also, even the real photos might be a fraud :
http://kamangir.net/2008/07/09/fake_...missile_drill/

CR

[PanzerJaeger]

to dump a bunch of death on them.

Amazing.

Can I use that sometime?

[HoreTore]

"We will kill you! We will kill you! Oh crap my rusty gun just fell apart. Run away! Run away!"



All talk and no walk. They don't deserve to be bombed. They deserve to be ignored.

Uh.... All this because one of their missiles misfired...?

Missiles and bombs misfire all the freakin' time. Yes, that includes yours.

[Ice]

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/200.../index.html?hp

Awesome. Proof that Iran's military is bumbling and incompetent. And just one more reason not to dump a bunch of death on them.



Iran reminds me of Iraq: Lots of talk and bluster, but ultimately a military.





"We will kill you! We will kill you! Oh crap my rusty gun just fell apart. Run away! Run away!"



All talk and no walk. They don't deserve to be bombed. They deserve to be ignored.

This comes as no surprise, although it is quite funny.

[Idaho]

Iran needs a decent nuclear deterrant. It has the US and Israel desperate to bomb the out of it.

[FactionHeir]

I can't see how they determined it was a fake looking at the pictures, am I blind?

[Tribesman]

They don't deserve to be bombed. They deserve to be ignored.

That is one of the best things you have ever written Seamus .
Could you send a memo to the idiots in office ?

[Husar]

I agree with HoreTore, equipment can fail, saying a whole military is bad because a single missile failed sounds like quite a stretch to me. Doesn't mean their military is good either but if it isn't there should be more proof than the failure of a single missile.

That is one of the best things you have ever written Seamus .
Could you send a memo to the idiots in office ?

For some reason I cannot see Seamus's post you quoted.
Has it been deleted or should I perhaps contact Tosa about it, my ignore list is empty...hmm...?

[Tribesman]

Its DA not Seamus

[PBI]

I can't see how they determined it was a fake looking at the pictures, am I blind?

I certainly wouldn't have noticed if I didn't know it was a fake, but it seems to me some parts of the dust cloud and plume from the fake missile are identical to those on either side. Plus there's an odd looking discontinuity in the plume which the others don't have.

Uh.... All this because one of their missiles misfired...?

Missiles and bombs misfire all the freakin' time. Yes, that includes yours.

Very true. Somehow, the thought that only 3 out of 4 Iranian nuclear missiles pointed at my country would actually reach their target wouldn't make me feel a whole lot safer. It is quite funny that they felt the need to doctor it though.

[Slyspy]

I can't see how they determined it was a fake looking at the pictures, am I blind?

Dust clouds.

[Pannonian]

Dust clouds.

The right side of the missile 2nd from the right is a replicate of the cloud on the rightmost missile. Any idea where the rest of that central cloud comes from?

[PBI]

Actually, I think the whole of the central cloud is taken from the one on the right, just with an extra black smudge added to make it look different. Similarly, I think the missile's vapour trail is taken from the one to its left (the contour along the top edge looks identical) but with another black smudge added near the top, except for the cloudy bit at the bottom just above the dust cloud. But this cloudy bit has an odd discontinuity where it ends and the rest of the plume begins, whereas the other three seem to have a smoother transition in their vapour trails.

[HoreTore]

OMG OMG BREAKING NEWS THE US SUCKS BECAUSE THEIR CLUSTER BOMBS DON'T EXPLODE MORE THAN 60% OF THE TIME!!!!!!!!1111111111111

[Don Corleone]

HoreTore, I understand what you're saying, but trust me, if the US was going to hold a demonstration to scare people with our weaponry, you can bet your last Euro that it would according to plan. This was the precise reason Truman made the decision to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead of holding a demonstration for the Japanese, because he couldn't be sure that there wouldn't be a misfire.

It's not that 1 missile misfired. Two of the three that did fire were not the Shalahb 3 that has European striking distance.

I'm not saying that Iran can't cause trouble if they want to. But they're hardly ready to snuff Israel out of existence in the next few weeks, Imadinnerjacket's endless threats aside.

[TinCow]

I'm pretty sure the added in missile and its flame/exhaust trail are copied from the missile directly to its left and the top half of its plume as well. Notice the smoke 'protrusions' on the left side. It seems like they grabbed everything from the larger protrusion halfway along the trail upwards, copied it to the right, and then added some generic smudging below it. Definitely a fake, like the one CR linked to as well:



Which is even more blatantly copied from this one, and with poorer photoshop work:

[HoreTore]

HoreTore, I understand what you're saying, but trust me, if the US was going to hold a demonstration to scare people with our weaponry, you can bet your last Euro that it would according to plan. This was the precise reason Truman made the decision to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead of holding a demonstration for the Japanese, because he couldn't be sure that there wouldn't be a misfire.

Well then harass the publicity department instead

But hey.... I hear underestimating your enemy is a wonderful thing

[Dâriûsh]

The picture was not meant for the foreign press. Still, it has already served its purpose.
I bet quite a few guardsmen, not busy surfing for porn, might have dropped by and been awed by the mighty weapons of the revolution.

Maybe they should digitally alter the next batch of images to seem like they’ve strapped screaming Ayatollahs to the missiles.

[Adrian II]

But they're hardly ready to snuff Israel out of existence in the next few weeks, Imadinnerjacket's endless threats aside.

Is that because Israel is protected by U.S. Patriot missiles (failure rate 60%)?

[Dâriûsh]

While we are at it, what is with this obsession about the atomic destruction of Israel? How could Imadinnerjacket or the Revolutionary Guard benefit if the third most holy site in Islam was turned to rubble or rendered uninhabitable for the next few centuries?

[Don Corleone]

While we are at it, what is with this obsession about the atomic destruction of Israel? How could Imadinnerjacket or the Revolutionary Guard benefit if the third most holy site in Islam was turned to rubble or rendered uninhabitable for the next few centuries?

Don't ask me, ask him. I'm not the one that keeps talking about "wiping Israel off the map" and Israel's annhiliation.

Is that because Israel is protected by U.S. Patriot missiles (failure rate 60%)?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but any one Patriot has a 60% failure rate, but they launch a barrage from a battery at each incoming missile. The odds of any one missile intercepting is 1 minus the odds of all of them missing. The odds of a missile failing is 0.6, and when you fire multiple missiles at them, the odds of all of failing is (0.6)^n. So if you fire a barrage of 10 patriots at the incoming Shalahb, the odds of success (assuming your 60% failure rate of each Patirot is correct) is 99.39%. Make the number of patriots 20, and the success rate goes up to 99.99634% (or the success rate of the Shalahb getting through drops to about 1 in 27,000.

How many SCUDs actually found their way into Israel? But my comment was more in line with Iran's offensive distance-strike capability than Israel's counter-measure capability.

I have a hard time, using the ultimate principle of sovereignty, which I hold quite strongly to, denying Iran the 'right' to nuclear armaments, provided they are able to develop the technology on their own. Anybody giving or selling it to them should be held accountable.

But I also know that within 6 months of Iran having the bomb, Hizbollah will let a nuke off in some backwater ghetto apartment in Haifa.

[Tribesman]

Well Don the original claim during that war was about 95% success against scuds if they managed to detect it in time , then very shortly after that claim it was revised down to around 50% by the US forces , but after that following studies put it at less than a 10% success rate .
Oh and it was multiple launches for each incoming so maybe you might want to review your sums there

[Adrian II]

How many SCUDs actually found their way into Israel?

Israel was hit by 39 Scuds, killing two people and wounding hundreds despite constant fire from the Patriot batteries near Tel Aviv. At least 45 percent of the 158 Patriots launched in the Gulf War were aimed against debris or false targets.

[Don Corleone]

I stand corrected.

So, basically, Israel should be toast within 2 to 3 years?

[Adrian II]

I stand corrected.

So, basically, Israel should be toast within 2 to 3 years?

By then we will all be toast. Medium, crispy French toast.

[Don Corleone]

You really think so? Do you think this conflict will expand beyond the Middle East?

[drone]

I wonder if Tel Aviv has a nuke reserved for Mecca?

The Patriot was a resounding failure in GW 1, but it had a fantastically well-run PR campaign. The anti ballistic missile models have been upgraded since, but they haven't been tested in combat so their performance is unknown.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Lemur's Disease - it's a curse