HA HA HA! Iran is a threat to my armpit and that's about it!

[Don Corleone]

While we are at it, what is with this obsession about the atomic destruction of Israel? How could Imadinnerjacket or the Revolutionary Guard benefit if the third most holy site in Islam was turned to rubble or rendered uninhabitable for the next few centuries?

Don't ask me, ask him. I'm not the one that keeps talking about "wiping Israel off the map" and Israel's annhiliation.

Is that because Israel is protected by U.S. Patriot missiles (failure rate 60%)?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but any one Patriot has a 60% failure rate, but they launch a barrage from a battery at each incoming missile. The odds of any one missile intercepting is 1 minus the odds of all of them missing. The odds of a missile failing is 0.6, and when you fire multiple missiles at them, the odds of all of failing is (0.6)^n. So if you fire a barrage of 10 patriots at the incoming Shalahb, the odds of success (assuming your 60% failure rate of each Patirot is correct) is 99.39%. Make the number of patriots 20, and the success rate goes up to 99.99634% (or the success rate of the Shalahb getting through drops to about 1 in 27,000.

How many SCUDs actually found their way into Israel? But my comment was more in line with Iran's offensive distance-strike capability than Israel's counter-measure capability.

I have a hard time, using the ultimate principle of sovereignty, which I hold quite strongly to, denying Iran the 'right' to nuclear armaments, provided they are able to develop the technology on their own. Anybody giving or selling it to them should be held accountable.

But I also know that within 6 months of Iran having the bomb, Hizbollah will let a nuke off in some backwater ghetto apartment in Haifa.

[Tribesman]

Well Don the original claim during that war was about 95% success against scuds if they managed to detect it in time , then very shortly after that claim it was revised down to around 50% by the US forces , but after that following studies put it at less than a 10% success rate .
Oh and it was multiple launches for each incoming so maybe you might want to review your sums there

[Adrian II]

How many SCUDs actually found their way into Israel?

Israel was hit by 39 Scuds, killing two people and wounding hundreds despite constant fire from the Patriot batteries near Tel Aviv. At least 45 percent of the 158 Patriots launched in the Gulf War were aimed against debris or false targets.

[Don Corleone]

I stand corrected.

So, basically, Israel should be toast within 2 to 3 years?

[Adrian II]

I stand corrected.

So, basically, Israel should be toast within 2 to 3 years?

By then we will all be toast. Medium, crispy French toast.

[Don Corleone]

You really think so? Do you think this conflict will expand beyond the Middle East?

[drone]

I wonder if Tel Aviv has a nuke reserved for Mecca?

The Patriot was a resounding failure in GW 1, but it had a fantastically well-run PR campaign. The anti ballistic missile models have been upgraded since, but they haven't been tested in combat so their performance is unknown.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Lemur's Disease - it's a curse

[King Jan III Sobieski]

I wonder if Tel Aviv has a nuke reserved for Mecca?

Given that this whole conflict is basically based on religious tensions, it certainly make sense for Israel to strike at the religious heart of Islam should they be attacked.

[Spino]

Israel was hit by 39 Scuds, killing two people and wounding hundreds despite constant fire from the Patriot batteries near Tel Aviv. At least 45 percent of the 158 Patriots launched in the Gulf War were aimed against debris or false targets.

When it comes to SAM systems it is standard procedure to launch more than one missile against a single incoming target. There is none of this 'one shot, one kill' nonsense. The best SAM systems are far from 100% effective so you increase the number of missiles fired to maximize your chance of a kill. The more effective each missile is the fewer you need to fire to ensure a hit. This method is particularly effective against piloted enemy aircraft because even the best pilot has trouble dealing with one SAM, let alone two.

Furthermore I believe most SAMs are purposefully not launched simultaneously. By slightly delaying the time between each missile launch (ripple fire) you lower the chance that all of the missiles in your salvo will interfere with one another... while increasing chance that the second or third missile will target & hit the debris created by the successful missile that preceded it (I could swear the Patriot system uses this 'ripple fire' method). This also allows for missiles whose target was terminated to automatically search & track a new target or, depending on the system, be assigned a new target by the fire control radar to avoid wastage (I believe the Aegis system is capable of this). So that's probably why many Patriot missiles targeted falling debris from Scud kills, they were simply doing what they were programmed to do; acquiring and terminating the nearest target.

FYI, the Patriot system has been improved greatly since the first Gulf War.

http://www.army-technology.com/projects/patriot/

[Idaho]

Israel and the US love the myth that Iran is desperate to wipe them off the map. It justifies their own aggression and threats in the region.

[Don Corleone]

Israel and the US love the myth that Iran is desperate to wipe them off the map. It justifies their own aggression and threats in the region.

Can you point to a speech in the past year or two where President Ajay DIDN'T specifically threaten to wipe Israel off the map? The phrase itself, "wipe them off the map", it's HIS. He put it into popular usage as it applies to Israel. How is that a self-perpetrated myth generated by Israel & the USA?

I'm really curious, Idaho. A guy walks up to you on the street with a carving knife and threatens your life .... you chuckle at him, pat him on the head and say "you don't really mean it" ??? When you call the cops on him, you overreacted ???

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Can you point to a speech in the past year or two where President Ajay DIDN'T specifically threaten to wipe Israel off the map? The phrase itself, "wipe them off the map", it's HIS. He put it into popular usage as it applies to Israel. How is that a self-perpetrated myth generated by Israel & the USA?

As I recall, he didn't use those words, but there was something in a translation. If only I could find the article...

EDIT: Wiki will have to do:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud...22_translation

The translation presented by IRIB has been challenged by Mr. Arash Norouzi, who proposes that the statement "wiped off the map" was never made and that Ahmadinejad did not refer to the nation or land mass of Israel, but to the "regime occupying Jerusalem". He says that the Iranian government News Agency IRIB/IRNA translation is the source of the confusion:

One may wonder: where did this false interpretation originate? Who is responsible for the translation that has sparked such worldwide controversy? The answer is surprising. The inflammatory 'wiped off the map' quote was first disseminated not by Iran's enemies, but by Iran itself. The Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran's official propaganda arm, used this phrasing in the English version of some of their news releases covering the World Without Zionism conference. International media including the BBC, Al Jazeera, Time magazine and countless others picked up the IRNA quote and made headlines out of it without verifying its accuracy, and rarely referring to the source. Iran's Foreign Minister soon attempted to clarify the statement, but the quote had a life of its own. Though the IRNA wording was inaccurate and misleading, the media assumed it was true, and besides, it made great copy.

[Tribesman]

As I recall, he didn't use those words,

Don't quibble , if Don wants to keep "quoting" words that were never said then let him .
Whats even funnier is the non quote Don says

it's HIS.

isn't even his .
The quote (the real one not the one Don "quotes") was not HIS as dinnerjacket was quoting someone else who is dead .

If only I could find the article...

Well you could try MEMRI that Israeli propoganda outfit , if even they don't have the same quote as Don it should be pretty conclusive
Oh and you might just discover that in their translation they attribute the actual quote to the person who said it many many years ago , he is dead now but I think I may have mentioned that .

[HoreTore]

Can you point to a speech in the past year or two where President Ajay DIDN'T specifically threaten to wipe Israel off the map?

Barking. Nothing else.

[Spino]

Israel and the US love the myth that Iran is desperate to wipe them off the map. It justifies their own aggression and threats in the region.

If Iran didn't have a history of financing & supporting terrorist groups in the region and wasn't enriching uranium and developing and procuring intermediate ranged missiles do you think the US or Israel would give as big a damn over their threats and propaganda, much less make a huge international stink over them? Whether this 'myth' is real or imagined can Israel (and to a much lesser extent the US) afford to ignore it?

What does Israel have to gain from wiping out Iran? Cheap real estate? Nope. Oil? Nope. Arable land? Nope. Water? Nope. Raw materials? Nope. Clearly Israel is reacting to conditions which it believes will lead to a situation where it will be under direct threat of nuclear weapons. Iran's repeated saber rattling with respect to Israel goes back much farther than our little adventure in Iraq. If Iran's threats directed at Israel are its own weird way of getting back at the US then they're clearly playing with fire. Historically Israel has shown that it is quite willing to go after any threat that it believes will pose a serious threat to its existence, especially after being attacked several times since its creation.

Considering you're not the God fearing/spiritual type I find it odd that you insist on looking at this situation using a black and white compass of morality or weighing it on some cosmic karmic scales. Whatever Israel did or did not do to its Arab neighbors in the past (i.e. its 'aggression') the idea that it is supposed to sit back and let a Persian nation openly threaten it while deploying medium range missles and refining uranium because of some perceived karmic payback for current & past sins is ridiculous. Israel feels seriously threatened and it is taking steps to eliminate the threat, period. The US happens to be an ally of Israel and is taking measures to protect its own interests in the region.

[Lemur]

Oh noes!

[Adrian II]

Oh noes!

You sure those aren't Patriots, Lemur?

[Don Corleone]

Lemur, that is truly classic. I have finally learned the true meaning of:

ROTFLMAO.

Put a cat in there and you could put it on icanhascheezburger.com.

[Divinus Arma]

Oh noes!

YES!!!!!!

I LOVE IT!! ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!


AWESOME!!!!


That is one of the best things I have ever seen on the Org. Tell me you are responsible for it!

[drone]

Oh noes!

Looks like our 4th of July fireworks display (the 6 drunk guys with bernzomatics trying not to catch fire were obviously photoshopped out though ). I didn't know the Iranians were watching us, their agents are everywhere!

Nice find!