Euro Area

[rory_20_uk]

Patents only last a couple of decades. And increasingly, who will be getting the next lot of them?

China also has a... special take on patent enforcement. Companies based in China for Chinese consumption can ignore the wails of the West.

[Tellos Athenaios]

... He did? Since when has an emerging economy that relied on manufacturing according to foreign tech/demand *ever* paid more than lip service until its own industry was firmly established and had IP worth infringing of its own? Heck, the USA and European industries were all founded on precisely such practices including some genuine industrial espionage ... ?

Patents are overrated, apart from the fact that for much of the modern technology patents are also a hindrance to genuine innovation. They're from an age where you could actually count them inside your head, and the R&D investment and turnover times actually had any correspondence with the patent grant. Today, patents are dysfunctional at best and insidious at worst. Patents haven't worked properly since Germany figured out how to game the system in the 19th century.

Patents only work if everyone plays by the same rules *and* the various patent offices are actually competent. Right now, we have neither and there is no reason to assume we ever will have both.

[Furunculus]

So when's the hammering?

AII

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...loyds-barclays

[Louis VI the Fat]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...loyds-barclays

Ancient history. Today:

Leaders of the Eurozone countries have reached a new agreement on tackling the Greek debt crisis, at a summit in Brussels.
They include debt restructuring and an expansion of the European bailout fund.

The new bailout will - for the first time - also involve private lenders, according to the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy.
He said they will provide 135bn euros ($194bn, £120.5bn) over 30 years to Greece.

One key element of the package is an expansion of the role of the European bailout mechanism, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) so it can act more freely.
The President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy said: "Reform of the EFSF will make it more flexible and effective. We do not now have to wait for substantial damage to occur before we can intervene."

Earlier, a statement said: "Greece is in a uniquely grave situation in the euro area."
Financial markets gained on hopes of a new deal. US shares gained 1.3%, while shares in Milan rose by 4%, and Spanish shares jumped 3%.

European banking shares led the way. In Germany, Commerzbank climbed almost 9% and Deutsche Bank rose 3.6%, while in France Societe Generale and Credit Agricole gained about 6%. German and French banks are the biggest holders of Greek debt. UK banking shares also rose strong, with Barclays gaining 7.7%, Lloyds 5.9% and RBS 5.7%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14239794

'It is an unusual moment when British politicians, more than the Germans, are urging closer European integration'

I do ever so dearly wish Europe would seize the moment for closer union. Now would be the time.

[Vladimir]

... He did? Since when has an emerging economy that relied on manufacturing according to foreign tech/demand *ever* paid more than lip service until its own industry was firmly established and had IP worth infringing of its own? Heck, the USA and European industries were all founded on precisely such practices including some genuine industrial espionage ... ?

Patents are overrated, apart from the fact that for much of the modern technology patents are also a hindrance to genuine innovation. They're from an age where you could actually count them inside your head, and the R&D investment and turnover times actually had any correspondence with the patent grant. Today, patents are dysfunctional at best and insidious at worst. Patents haven't worked properly since Germany figured out how to game the system in the 19th century.

Patents only work if everyone plays by the same rules *and* the various patent offices are actually competent. Right now, we have neither and there is no reason to assume we ever will have both.

Don't tell that to the U.S. patent and trademark office. http://www.uspto.gov/

They're so powerful they have their own black helicopter "limousine" service.

[gaelic cowboy]

I remember this argument with Furunculus. He said I was wrong because we own the patents.

The problem here is the skills you draw from will wither and die, if graduates are not properly schooled in the actual manufacturing process.

What company is going to take on a designer so they can design say car parts who has never even worked in say injection moulding plant or in steel fabrication.

As long as there is the posibility of learning skills in the wider economy then you will be able to source designers ,but if you let it go then the quality will drop year on year.

[gaelic cowboy]

Now seeing as this thread was initially started by myself on how the interest rate needed cutting or loan maturity needed extending.

Ireland gets more time to pay EU loans and rate cut

By Independent.ie reporters
Thursday July 21 2011
Ireland will get a cut in EU loan interest rates and twice as much time to pay its debts as part of a plan to save the euro and Greece.

At an emergency eurozone summit in Brussels, leaders also agreed on a second bailout for Greece that will include cost-sharing with banks, backed by collateral and guarantees.

According to a draft communique drawn up by eurozone leaders in Brussels today, bailout interest rates will drop to around 3.5pc and loan maturities will double, giving Ireland 15 years to pay back its debts.

Ireland currently pays an average of 5.8pc on €45 billion of EU loans, which are offered on average over 7.5 years.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The concessions are being given on condition that the Government “participates constructively” in talks on a common corporate tax base - an EU-wide formula for redistributing taxes on business profits - and on other EU tax policies.

The discounts offered to Ireland mirror those agreed for Greece, which is struggling under a massive €350bn debt mountain.

The changes will also apply to Portugal.

Interest charged on eurozone rescue loans will now be equal to that charged to non-eurozone countries who borrow money from the European Commission.

Latvia, Romania and Hungary have so far tapped that fund, which has a ceiling of EUR50 billion.

Interest rates will not fall below the eurozone fund’s borrowing costs. That fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), was able to tap the markets at the end of June at a rate of around 2.8pc.

That was before the European Central Bank raised its rate by 25 basis points in July.

Greece is being offered a second bailout - the final amount still to be decided - at lower interest rates and extended loan maturities.

The EU portion is to be matched by IMF funding, and coupled with a European “Marshall Plan” to help boost growth and investment in the country.

The EU has already promised to speed up the payment of €1bn in infrastructural aid, and announced this week that it was sending a technical team to Athens to help the government absorb the cash.

The new loans will be backed by “collateral arrangements where appropriate”, the communique says, after Finland insisted that it receive assurances for any extra money it is expected to stump up as part of the EFSF.

Private investors will be offered a “menu of options” to encourage them to participate in the bailout, including bond exchanges, rollovers and buybacks.

Their participation will be “voluntary”, the communique says, although ratings agencies have already indicated that they will declare Greece in partial default of its debts if the plans go ahead.

Eurozone governments will have to back bondholder involvement, possibly through a special fund guaranteed by the AAA-rated financial stability facility.

“Greece is in a uniquely grave situation in the euro area,” the draft says. “This is the reason why it requires an exceptional solution.”

The meeting in Brussels was attended by all 17 eurozone leaders, IMF head Christine Lagarde, ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet, and a representative from the Institute of International Finance, which represents the global banking groups exposed to Greek debt.

Earlier Taoiseach Enda Kenny had called on leaders to be flexible with its plans.

European markets warmed to the news and many shares erased earlier losses on the news of a new deal.

The euro gained 0.5pc against the dollar.

- Independent.ie reporters

Sarkozy confirms lower Irish loan rate

Enda Kenny confirms bailout rate cut

[Furunculus]

'It is an unusual moment when British politicians, more than the Germans, are urging closer European integration'

I do ever so dearly wish Europe would seize the moment for closer union. Now would be the time.

of course we are, we never objected to you guys doing your own thing, we just don't want to be part of it.

if the foolishness of political union is to be sought, then do it properly!

.............. and pay for it, but good luck with the german electorate.

The problem here is the skills you draw from will wither and die, if graduates are not properly schooled in the actual manufacturing process.

What company is going to take on a designer so they can design say car parts who has never even worked in say injection moulding plant or in steel fabrication.

As long as there is the posibility of learning skills in the wider economy then you will be able to source designers ,but if you let it go then the quality will drop year on year.

i accept the point that it is difficult, but we either continue to innovate, with british RESEARCH being referenced in 15% of world research or we get poorer.

i accept the challenge.

[gaelic cowboy]

of course we are, we never objected to you guys doing your own thing, we just don't want to be part of it.

if the foolishness of political union is to be sought, then do it properly!

.............. and pay for it, but good luck with the german electorate.

they will be lucky if the agreement made tonight does not get upended, I expect before the end of the summer some other problem will be upon us.

[Adrian II]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...loyds-barclays

Oh please - a mere three banks got clobbered, all of them British. And that's probably because they are overexposed in CDS which makes investors particularly jittery.

I am somewhat satisfied that the new eurozone plan hammered out today talks of restructuring of debt. Organised restructuring, hurtful though it is in the short term, is the way to go.

AII

[Furunculus]

Oh please - a mere three banks got clobbered, all of them British. And that's probably because they are overexposed in CDS which makes investors particularly jittery.

I am somewhat satisfied that the new eurozone plan hammered out today talks of restructuring of debt. Organised restructuring, hurtful though it is in the short term, is the way to go.

AII

well that article was about how the euro fall had affected big british banks

but the stressless stress tests did affect european banks:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-tests-default

however, as noted the fall was muted by the ECB acting as an enormous overdraft:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...some-time.html

re the point about restructuring - there really won't be much.

all that is really happening is a rolling over with longer maturities, which means greek debt as a proportion of GDP continues to grow, bankrolled as it is by the EFSF, which leaves the german taxpayer responsible for at least 32% of burden, £750 billion in other words.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fat...-angry-germans

lurving it!

----------------------------------------------------

edit - sunday 24th:

Germans is getting a trifle fractious:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...lout-plan.html

[Furunculus]

the wobbly'ness of italy and spain is starting to affect france now:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011...-fail-e-f-s-f/

*hums; Ride of the Valkyries*

[Beskar]

You know what is really moronic? It is the stockmarket causing all of these issues.

[gaelic cowboy]

You know what is really moronic? It is the stockmarket causing all of these issues.

No actually what there worried about is that Spain Italy may have to pull out of there commitments to the various rescue packages that have been setup in order to stablise there own situation.

That would increase the load on the others for bailing out Greece, Ireland, Portugal leading to more talks about talks and potentially someone refusing to pay anymore into it unless there is some burden sharing.

In other words the chance of default has gone up yet again, because the big plan was not big enough to start with.

[rory_20_uk]

You know what is really moronic? It is the stockmarket causing all of these issues.

It just isn't fair! Why won't people throw their money at lost causes to chase a political half-baked plan?

If only loads of other people were effectively willing to work longer so that Greece can continue doing a pretty poor job of everything.

[Furunculus]

You know what is really moronic? It is the stockmarket causing all of these issues.

no, what is truly moronic is that europe created an economic structure which did not share a political commitment from the rich nations to buttress the poor nations in times of ill.

now that the ill times have arrived everyone is asking if germany is willing to show that commitment to guarantee loans that permit italy and spain to rollover its debts.

without that commitment why on earth would the markets lend more to those countries, when the threat of default is so close arising from marginal growth, continuing deficits, and enormous debts?

now that IS moronic!

[Adrian II]

no, what is truly moronic is that europe created an economic structure which did not share a political commitment from the rich nations to buttress the poor nations in times of ill.

No, what is truly moronic is that the West has built a paper cathedral of debt that is now collapsing. Your country for instance went through the £1trillion debt ceiling in January, equalling £40,000 per British household. Most western nations show similarly frightening figures. This has nothing to do with Eu structure. The US is fiscal union and they're in trouble for the exast same reason.

The real problem is lack of leadership on both sides of the Atlantic, as The Economist doesn't stop emphasising.

AII

[Furunculus]

No, what is truly moronic is that the West has built a paper cathedral of debt that is now collapsing. Your country for instance went through the £1trillion debt ceiling in January, equalling £40,000 per British household. Most western nations show similarly frightening figures. This has nothing to do with Eu structure. The US is fiscal union and they're in trouble for the exast same reason.

The real problem is lack of leadership on both sides of the Atlantic, as The Economist doesn't stop emphasising.

AII

wrong adrian.

that we have accumulated so much debt is indeed moronic, that is not in question, but neither is our ability and commitment to pay it back in question.

that. is . why. the. yield. on. british. ten. year. bonds. is. only. 2.75%!

we need more debt to rollover our old debt, fine, you can have it as you have shown that your finances are on a sustainable trend.

spain and italy however have a problem, poor growth on a brutal recession after a period of heroic borrowing and bank risk means that their finances are not on a sustainable trend, and seeing as their is no commitment from germany to a transfer union, why would you lend to these nations given the risk of default?

they need more debt to rollover our old debt, fine, you can have it, as long as we insure against your risk by charging 6.5% yield on a ten year bond.

it is that simple.

[InsaneApache]

Talking of morons, did anybody read 'El Presidente' Von Pumpy in the Gruniade last week?

Perhaps it's my false consciousness showing again but the man is bonkers.

[Furunculus]

Talking of morons, did anybody read 'El Presidente' Von Pumpy in the Gruniade last week?

Perhaps it's my false consciousness showing again but the man is bonkers.

i do worry about your false consciousness, it could lead to the ruin of us all! but in this case you are right:

Astonishingly, since our summit the cost of borrowing has increased again for a number of euro area countries.

the man is a prize cretin!

nothing is sorted or solved:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011...ce-bailout-ii/

1. Greece Bail Out II now detailed, rolling crisis still likely: The Euro Summit was first and foremost a summit aiming at concluding the negotiations surrounding Greece Bail Out II. This is now done. The political will of some countries to get PSI at any cost won the day which will have a number of negative side effects (rating downgrade for Greece and potentially other countries, ECB requirement for additional guarantees for Greek collateral, market perception that PSI might be a template for other countries) while not bringing substantial economic benefits. Indeed, after almost 3 months of negotiations and effort, the Greek debt load will be at best reduced by 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP to what will still be seen as an unsustainably high level. Overall, this will have been an expensive political decision. In the end, Greece will likely continue facing a rolling crisis around IMF quarterly reviews. Doubts about the trajectory of the economy and the ability to raise privatisation receipts anywhere near the targets will persist.

2. Toolkit to respond to euro area contagion rushed out: The statement clearly gives the impression that euro area policy makers are increasingly ‘getting the message’, with 3 new tools being created: a precautionary programme, a lending facility for non programme countries to recapitalise banks and a bond buying programme in the secondary market. However, the level of detail provided is low, making it hard at this stage to really tell how the new tools will work in practice and how efficient they will end up being. In particular, there is insufficient information available to tell how preventive those tools will end up being deployed and this is related to the lack of clarity surrounding the so called “appropriate conditionality” that will be imposed on member countries accessing these new help mechanisms.

3. Nice tools but no firing power: In our view a key limitation of the announcement is that it did not address the size of the EFSF. We have recently argued that a prerequisite to increase the flexibility of the EFSF was to increase very significantly its size with a view of ultimately having a lending capacity of around Eur2trn. Indeed, under the amended EFSF which will aim at having a lending capacity of Eur440bn, and given current and likely commitments, the EFSF will be left with a little more than Eur300bn of lending and or buying capacity – a too small amount to restore investor’s confidence that the euro area has once and for all dealt with its sovereign crisis. The crisis will in our view linger with markets likely to test the EFSF firepower.

[Beskar]

It just isn't fair! Why won't people throw their money at lost causes to chase a political half-baked plan?

Or don't tie in the government system to the stockmarket, so governments cannot be toppled due to outside economic interests.

no, what is truly moronic is that europe created an economic structure which did not share a political commitment from the rich nations to buttress the poor nations in times of ill.

Similar to the fiscal union of the USA ?

[Furunculus]

Similar to the fiscal union of the USA ?

if only it was.

america has a true transfer union on a scale that would make german taxpayers boil with rage, but it causes no fuss because their is the political commitment to stand behind that liability:

http://www.economist.com/node/21524887

[Adrian II]

that. is . why. the. yield. on. british. ten. year. bonds. is. only. 2.75%!

It's 2.21 according to Bloomberg, and it's down from 3.99% last month...

Your thinking is altogether too wishful for my taste.

AII

[Vladimir]

Or don't tie in the government system to the stockmarket, so governments cannot be toppled due to outside economic interests.

Sorry to pile on but your statements just seem like more anti-capitalistic rants. Stocks have proven to be a reliable way to generate wealth. It is the public sector's responsibility to provide for sound fiscal/monetary policy. Unfortunately, on both sides of the pond they're more concerned with maintaining power by trying to appease the electorate. And even that isn't the whole of it.

[Kagemusha]

To me it is quite clear that we need to implement a version of currency transaction tax. It is the only way of taking back the market. Or atleast make it somehow benefitial to the tax payers who are right now pouring money to the pockets of speculators.We can pump our last penny to the countries in trouble, but the effect is quite different then the expected outcome.

[Furunculus]

Or don't tie in the government system to the stockmarket, so governments cannot be toppled due to outside economic interests.

lol, when governments decide not to buy their debt from the markets, we can have a nice bureaucratic system where the markets don't get to make an assessment of the ability to repay that debt.

let me know when that happens, and which unicorn is farting out rainbow dollars to buy it with!

[Furunculus]

To me it is quite clear that we need to implement a version of currency transaction tax. It is the only way of taking back the market. Or atleast make it somehow benefitial to the tax payers who are right now pouring money to the pockets of speculators.We can pump our last penny to the countries in trouble, but the effect is quite different then the expected outcome.

we have for some time, it's called capital gains tax. we even got creative recently and invented an extra bank tax to pile on top of it.

on the other hand, i do have a great deal of sympathy with those objecting to the use of taxpayers money being used to subsidise the losses of public and private institutions.

we should perhaps just let them fail, it is a novel idea know as insolvency/default. :D

[rory_20_uk]

Or don't tie in the government system to the stockmarket, so governments cannot be toppled due to outside economic interests.

That would be fine... Except that the party with the most to loose there would be Labour as the concept of "fiscal surplus" is heretical, and they have done sterling work in creating the massive deficit we have.

A system of bonds on infrastructure might have been an idea: money is raised from the Market to purchase something, let's say a power plant for convenience. The ROI is calculated to be 20 years. After that the state has the powerplant to use for the rest of its life. The investors get a profit with a rock-solid backing. The state ends up with more infrastructure which then generates revenue. Same could be done with ports, airports and probably loads of other things.

As Vladimir says, the main reason for massive deficits is political cowardice. In the USA, roads are supposed to be repaired based on a petrol tax. The tax has not increased since 1993 and hence the system is almost bust. If politicians lived up to the name (men of the city i.e. there to help, not help themselves) this would be a non-issue - more money is required therefore the tax on petrol needs to increase if this is to remain the method of funding the system; infrastructure would be planned, not built based upon which Senator manages to get money thrown in their direction for voting the "right" way on one project or other.

Debt allows all major decisions to be put off until a comfortable point in the future. It reminds me of Homer Simpson purchasing a car and the dealer going over the terms of finance - low monthly cost with a MFP massive final payment at the end. "But that's a long way off, right?" was Homer's only question.

The Markets have a perversely positive effect (albeit too rarely) in forcing austerity through Parliaments who would rather Panem et Circundas for a few more years. After all, who else is going to manage to enforce fiscal responsibility? Certainly not the voters!

[Kagemusha]

we have for some time, it's called capital gains tax. we even got creative recently and invented an extra bank tax to pile on top of it.

on the other hand, i do have a great deal of sympathy with public money being used to subsidise the loses of public and private institutions.

we should perhaps just let them fail, it is a novel idea know as insolvency/default. :D

In a Global economy, it doesnt matter one bit of certain country has a capital gain tax. It has to be global to have any real meaning as money can be circulated freely. If the economy is Global, so must the rules be.I am quite sure that if and when the day comes that Euro might dissolve, your smirk will be viped off from your face quite fast. If you think that individual economies are not dependant of others these days, you have quite the surprise heading your way.

[Furunculus]

In a Global economy, it doesnt matter one bit of certain country has a capital gain tax. It has to be global to have any real meaning as money can be circulated freely. If the economy is Global, so must the rules be.I am quite sure that if and when the day comes that Euro might dissolve, your smirk will be viped off from your face quite fast. If you think that individual economies are not dependant of others these days, you have quite the surprise heading your way.

there are plenty of nations that cope just fine without being in a currency union, the vast majority of them in fact.

regardless, i won't smirk if the euro collapses because it will lead to misery, not least in britain, but i will be more than happy to shout "told you so" to all the fools who put political union before economic reality.