Ukraine Thread

[Don Corleone]

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

Putin has had his media repeatedly stress that while Soviet military doctrine precluded offensive nuclear options, modern Russia reserves the right of nuclear first strike capability for any reason.

They're going to the Baltics next, then Poland. Any further "negotiations" will just embolden him to expand Warsaw ~1986 boundaries. Don't forget, Putin considers Berlin as rightfully his.

As for "what we're going to do about it"... Come on.... Doesn't everyone remember the famous hot-mike incident in 2011 when Obama told him to wait until after he got relelected, then he'd let Putin do whatever he wanted?

This is a good read on the current situation. The Economist, noted for its rather thoughtful, restrained insights on aggressive foreign policy, nails it. Now or later, we're going to war with this guy.

[CrossLOPER]

This is a good read on the current situation. The Economist, noted for its rather thoughtful, restrained insights on aggressive foreign policy, nails it. Now or later, we're going to war with this guy.

That article completely ignores the core issues and boils down complex problems to "Putin bad, BAD."

[Don Corleone]

Yes, bullying your neighbors into submission always has complicated underlying issues that absolve the bully of wrong-doing. Just ask Georgia.

[CrossLOPER]

I agree Kagemusha. I wouldn't start an offensive, certainly not in our current state of affairs.

I'm highlighting that IMHO, there is no choice here. If we won't go fight Putin, he'll come to you. He's not stopping with getting Warsaw territory back.

What indications has he shown of doing this? I am not denying it, I am asking for your proof.

Yes, bullying your neighbors into submission always has complicated underlying issues that absolve the bully of wrong-doing. Just ask Georgia.

Again, you are oversimplifying it.

[Brenus]

"Just ask Georgia" Or Serbia. Ooops, sorry, that was NATO, sorry, wrong guy.

[Kagemusha]

If Brits want to invade Russia with their two operational divisions then go ahead and attack. Maybe the single US Airborne division in Europe can join you guys. I am sure the odd 40 Brigades Russia can field would be shitting themselves just by hearing of such force being deployed against them. Lets be realist here. West is not ready for such war at the moment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11424238/Britain-cannot-defend-itself-against-Putins-military-might-top-brass-warn.html

For some reason everyone in this thread saying we should go to war with Russia are either living on a island or a different continent all together. It is kind of funny when people are being worried if Poland will be next, when Poland has a stronger military for a conventional warfare then most of Western European countries, who have dissected their armies into something that has little value in a conflict some of you are talking about.

[CrossLOPER]

For some reason everyone in this thread saying we should go to war with Russia are either living on a island or a different continent all together. It is kind of funny when people are being worried if Poland will be next, when Poland has a stronger military for a conventional warfare then most of Western European countries, who have dissected their armies into something that has little value in a conflict some of you are talking about.

They are told that because it is a fun thing to think about. Moreover, they act and speak as if Putin has already reconquered most of the lost Warsaw Pact.

[Don Corleone]

I agree Kagemusha. I wouldn't start an offensive, certainly not in our current state of affairs.

I'm highlighting that IMHO, there is no choice here. If we won't go fight Putin, he'll come to you. He's not stopping with getting Warsaw territory back.

[Gilrandir]

You are fully aware that this is impossible.

I am. But it was meant to show how he exercises control over Lugandoneans and this control is complete.

I'm highlighting that IMHO, there is no choice here. If we won't go fight Putin, he'll come to you. He's not stopping with getting Warsaw territory back.

If he ever starts a war, the problem for him will be both conquering anything within the reach and holding the overrun territory. When some people speak of Russian tank wedges in Europe they fail to realize that tanks need refuelling and ammo replenishing, crews need catering. One can't provide that in long-distance operations. Holding the territory is a more problematic issue what with the mentioned logistic problems and the attitude of the hostile populace. So the conclusion is: if Putin will start a war anywhere it will be a war in the territories where Russians live and it will break no sooner than preliminary steps are taken. The latter usually takes time but if one Russia puts its mind into it it will take it 4-5 years.

http://joinfo.com/world/1001285_Russ...st-Latvia.html
What the Far West may fear is not a land operation, but missile and aicraft warfare. Or it may side with Putin:
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/events/oth...or-the-donbass

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

This is a question to which the answer has totally eluded me, but could you explain why you would want to?

Want to fight Putin? I want to fight Putin about a much as my grandfather wanted to fight Hitler - but it's starting to look as though it might be as necessary.

Putin has had his media repeatedly stress that while Soviet military doctrine precluded offensive nuclear options, modern Russia reserves the right of nuclear first strike capability for any reason.

He's still not going to attack with Nukes, there's no point unless we invade Russia itself and that's not necessary, or profitable.

They're going to the Baltics next, then Poland. Any further "negotiations" will just embolden him to expand Warsaw ~1986 boundaries. Don't forget, Putin considers Berlin as rightfully his.

Moldova is a more likely target, followed by Hungary, cutting Romania and Bulgaria off from the rest of NATO - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are more hostile to Russia than Hungary or Austria, or indeed even Greece.

As for "what we're going to do about it"... Come on.... Doesn't everyone remember the famous hot-mike incident in 2011 when Obama told him to wait until after he got relelected, then he'd let Putin do whatever he wanted?

Experience says that America will never do the right thing for Europe unless pushed or outraged, although Americans have affection for Europe it is a distant and vague affection, you will never inconvenience yourselves to help us, which is why your wisest politicians created NATO, to force you to do the right thing. Unfortunately the end of the cold war has resulted in an American AND European drawdown beyond the point of safety and now we will reap the whirlwind.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...Experience says that America will never do the right thing for Europe unless pushed or outraged, although Americans have affection for Europe it is a distant and vague affection, you will never inconvenience yourselves to help us, which is why your wisest politicians created NATO, to force you to do the right thing. Unfortunately the end of the cold war has resulted in an American AND European drawdown beyond the point of safety and now we will reap the whirlwind.

We do tend to do the right thing pretty lethargically when in comes to Europe. And you are quite fair in your apportionment of blame regarding NATO's military preparedness.

I hope you are wrong about the need to go to war with Putin. That would be a lot of blood spilled. He does seem to harken back to the days of Empire and expansionism though....so you may have a point.

[Gilrandir]

Moldova is a more likely target, followed by Hungary, cutting Romania and Bulgaria off from the rest of NATO - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are more hostile to Russia than Hungary or Austria, or indeed even Greece.

To get at Moldova he has to conquer all the way through the south of Ukraine and be able to control the strip. Hungary has a most friendly to Putin regime. Moreover, no hybrid war tactics will be possible to preliminary weaken the adversary since no large quantities of Russian speakers/Russians reside there (exept Transdniestria). So I believe the Baltics (namely Latvia) will have to bear the brunt of assault if it comes to war.
http://www.baltictimes.com/latvian_s...rnet_pictures/
But again, it will take money (which Russia definitely is short of at the moment) and time (which gives Latvia a respite of couple of years) to get things prepared properly.
Or, alternatively, Putin may consider Kazakhstan as an option. The north of the country is entirely populated by Russian speakers (among whom a great proportion is taken by ethnic Ukrainians, btw) who seem to be an easy target to sway Russiawards.
And Belarus, having such soldiers, seems perfectly safe from any attack from the East:

[Fisherking]

Putin is merely an opportunist taking advantage of very stupid US efforts to weaken Russia.

The West lacks any leadership half as cunning as Putin nor wise enough to know it.

Putin can afford to act like a bandit. He is fully aware that the US military is not the threat it once was.

It has a military focused on the use of small scale special forces operations and air power focused on air to air combat. Their multi mission aircraft do none of their missions well and there are too few troops to take on the tasks or trained to handle a combined arms campaign.

Russia has be isolated by the US each time they have tried to cooperate with them.

The rest of the west keep following Washington’s ridiculous short sighed policies and diplomatic leads which brought it to this stage.

His latest move shows that he has lost any hope of bringing the EU to a more neutral stance, so from here on it is put up or shut up.

As weak as Europe is and as unreliable an ally as the US has turned out to be he is fairly confident in being able to push things even further. All I can see from the West is more bluster and no substance.

[Gilrandir]

Putin can afford to act like a bandit. He is fully aware that the US military is not the threat it once was.

Luckily, both EU and the USA have other levers (mainly economic and finacial) to reach their goal. Unluckily, they don't use them or are afraid/reluctant to use them (I mean those they are using aren't efficient enough).

[Gilrandir]

Russian propaganda in action:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/ma...ruth.html?_r=1

[CrossLOPER]

Russian propaganda in action:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/ma...ruth.html?_r=1

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

[CrossLOPER]

Want to fight Putin? I want to fight Putin about a much as my grandfather wanted to fight Hitler - but it's starting to look as though it might be as necessary.

I'm not entirely sure whether that means you want to or not, but I have a suggestion. There is a large group of morally questionable psychotic death cultists in the middle east and Levant right now, who may or may not have views opposite your own. I would say that they are clearly more deserving of your ire, but I am sure you are more than capable of coming up with reasons why Putin is more the antichrist or whatever.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I'm not entirely sure whether that means you want to or not, but I have a suggestion. There is a large group of morally questionable psychotic death cultists in the middle east and Levant right now, who may or may not have views opposite your own. I would say that they are clearly more deserving of your ire, but I am sure you are more than capable of coming up with reasons why Putin is more the antichrist or whatever.

Well, my Grandfather was an electrician, and (surprise, surprise) he didn't want to fight Hitler.