Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

So a question before I start blindly speculating again... should we discuss what Chox should possible do now with his night actions/does anyone know what he possibly could do? Does that make sense to coordinate it? I mean mafia would see it but I think there are potential options where it doesnt matter if mafia knows or not... like maybe chox can gift a bomb to someone to use next night (not saying who he should give it to obviously)... that would be always +EV I think? Not sure if thats a viable option though... thoughts?

Chox knows what to do with his power. He should give it to someone likely to survive the night, even if they aren't super lock clear.

[Fredwood]

Scum Freddo really has no reason to doubt any Csargo is scum theory. Csargo has to be in his lynch pile.

Just reaffirms my stance on him.

Anyway, if we have a doc they need to be on Choxorn. I've already stated who we shouldn't ever lynch and tried to case the remainders as much as I possibly can, given Xiahou and Cuth's posting patterns.

No lynches on me, freddo, dp101, choxorn. If we can't find it in the remaining then we deserve to lose.

Lol well I was considering asking how experienced Csargo is as scum. I don't mean it as an insult or anything, I just honestly don't know.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan looks both good and bad by iso. Looked good on first viewing, flip it and looks differently. I don't think I ever push him again though, I'll just hope I'm wrong. The tinfoil is strong.

Outside of that, Monty looks best for deep wolf (and best for being a townie, because amazing play either way) Csargo looks best for catchable wolf.

[Slaan]

Alright.

Just 'ISO'd' Xia to see if I'm not totally crazy on the few post he has.. its 7. 7 posts so far. And being on Zack/GH for most of it (Csargo yesterday but couldnt bus another wolf at this point if he is the last one). I'm never letting this slot live.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lol well I was considering asking how experienced Csargo is as scum. I don't mean it as an insult or anything, I just honestly don't know.

He was in the very first mafia game on the site, I believe?

I could be wrong. And his name had changed a couple times since then.

But he's ancient.

Been scum probably as often as I have by now.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Alright.

Just 'ISO'd' Xia to see if I'm not totally crazy on the few post he has.. its 7. 7 posts so far. And being on Zack/GH for most of it (Csargo yesterday but couldnt bus another wolf at this point if he is the last one). I'm never letting this slot live.

Why not?

[Slaan]

Slaan looks both good and bad by iso. Looked good on first viewing, flip it and looks differently. I don't think I ever push him again though, I'll just hope I'm wrong. The tinfoil is strong.

Outside of that, Monty looks best for deep wolf (and best for being a townie, because amazing play either way) Csargo looks best for catchable wolf.

If you are afraid I'm going to be rude again don't be. I learned an important lesson about the mental state I shouldn't have when entering a volatile game such as this (and again: sorry for lashing out) and it won't happen again.

From my PoV rn the game is over anyway. I'd just vote down my PoE and not do much else unless new points come up... I won't do another reread.. maybe one more ISO if I'm really bored but doubt it... maybe if find myself in a F3 scenario with Monty and Fred but even then probably not cuz I'm fairly certain I'm the default lynch in this case ^^.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If we value people based only on their total number of posts and not by their actual contributions/votes, then we'd never have caught Zack or GH.

And he was on both.

[Fredwood]

Alright.

Just 'ISO'd' Xia to see if I'm not totally crazy on the few post he has.. its 7. 7 posts so far. And being on Zack/GH for most of it (Csargo yesterday but couldnt bus another wolf at this point if he is the last one). I'm never letting this slot live.

Lol, I had this same reaction with Pizza's read on Auto who had even fewer posts then Xia and had an almost perfect voting record. I didn't listen to him then and I lost because of it. I'm not saying it couldn't but I just sort of trust Pizza at this point with those low post guys. I literally don't.

The good news bad news is, is if he's scum he won't win, buuuuuutttt....

[Slaan]

Why not?

I don't see someone that isnt really playing nailing those two mafia. Zack was a jokevote from him for posting too much and then

I'm still comfortable with my vote, but GH is giving me a scummy vibe too.



I don't care for this either.

(the don't care was in response to Csargos vote on Barto D1)... like really, top2 mafia candidates are GH and Zack??? This is either a stupid coincidence or bussing mafia.

[Montmorency]

If we value people based only on their total number of posts and not by their actual contributions/votes, then we'd never have caught Zack or GH.

And he was on both.

But Csargo is the super-deep super-power wolf?

Slaan looks both good and bad by iso. Looked good on first viewing, flip it and looks differently. I don't think I ever push him again though, I'll just hope I'm wrong. The tinfoil is strong.

Outside of that, Monty looks best for deep wolf (and best for being a townie, because amazing play either way) Csargo looks best for catchable wolf.

*sigh*

I'll explain why you don't push Csargo, but tonight is for interaction analysis.

What do you think of my theory derived from how Zack/GH dealt with Manasi and Csargo D1?

[Fredwood]

Lol, I had this same reaction with Pizza's read on Auto who had even fewer posts then Xia and had an almost perfect voting record. I didn't listen to him then and I lost because of it. I'm not saying it couldn't be him but I just sort of trust Pizza at this point with those low post guys. I literally wouldn't know how to read him otherwise.

The good news bad news is, is if he's scum he won't win, buuuuuutttt....

I just straight up forgot to finish sentences in that post.

[Montmorency]

*Manasi and Barto

[Slaan]

Amnesia is one hell of a drug :D

[Slaan]

I think hard bussing is literally the only strategy Xiahou could ever employ as mafia if he intends to have any chance. If he doesnt have a good record he'll die somewhere along the way since he can't get cleared in any other way on account of not posting. If he busses alot he either spew his mates clear if he dies first or gets super credit and maybe chills it out till the end. It's not a great strategy mind you, but the only one someone posting only 7 times in over 8 days could employ. I imagine even the mafia told him in mafia chat after he told them he is not gonna post much to just bus them or smth... I would.

I mean maybe he was just incredibly lucky (or a master at this game but I feel a master at this game would play a bit more ^^) but I won't ever take this chance.

[Fredwood]

But Csargo is the super-deep super-power wolf?



*sigh*

I'll explain why you don't push Csargo, but tonight is for interaction analysis.

What do you think of my theory derived from how Zack/GH dealt with Manasi and Csargo D1?

I think the problem you have is the spew masters both pushed multiple people, both cleared multiple people and both ignored multiple people and both split multiple people.

[Slaan]

Ngl though, the one thing bothering me from my 4 (well now 3) PoE is that its literally the ppl with seemingly least WIM/least posts... which is terrible but I'm always a sucker for this.. at least until I get a strong read on one of the more active ppl.

In the end it's probably also a reinforcing kinda thing.. I hate loosing to ppl that dont participate much but if I loose here to Monty I'd be like... damn but alright, he played and I didnt catch him. If I loose to Xiahou it's have lost to someone that hasnt really played and gave me almost no chance to catch him....

[Slaan]

Anyway, I'm done for today :). See you around

[Fredwood]

I think hard bussing is literally the only strategy Xiahou could ever employ as mafia if he intends to have any chance. If he doesnt have a good record he'll die somewhere along the way since he can't get cleared in any other way on account of not posting. If he busses alot he either spew his mates clear if he dies first or gets super credit and maybe chills it out till the end. It's not a great strategy mind you, but the only one someone posting only 7 times in over 8 days could employ. I imagine even the mafia told him in mafia chat after he told them he is not gonna post much to just bus them or smth... I would.

I mean maybe he was just incredibly lucky (or a master at this game but I feel a master at this game would play a bit more ^^) but I won't ever take this chance.

My guess is that he's not an incredibly active as either scum or Town and profile says he's been around since 2010, it may be just one of those things. At this point I literally don't know where I'm at with the remainder of votable players.

[Montmorency]

I think the problem you have is the spew masters both pushed multiple people, both cleared multiple people and both ignored multiple people and both split multiple people.

Of course, but there could be narrow patterns. I'm doing pretty much every player against the Mafia, and I'll package the results so it's easy for people to check or improve upon my work.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If you are afraid I'm going to be rude again don't be. I learned an important lesson about the mental state I shouldn't have when entering a volatile game such as this (and again: sorry for lashing out) and it won't happen again.

From my PoV rn the game is over anyway. I'd just vote down my PoE and not do much else unless new points come up... I won't do another reread.. maybe one more ISO if I'm really bored but doubt it... maybe if find myself in a F3 scenario with Monty and Fred but even then probably not cuz I'm fairly certain I'm the default lynch in this case ^^.

I'm not worried about that. From what I've seen except for that one post, you're ordinarily a great guy.

Maybe you have similar people to me on your home site. I come on really strong and I throw everything I can find at you suddenly to see if I cannot rattle your cage. If you don't, it can be jarring.

Whenever I push someone, if I have a moderately higher than random scum read on them, I look for everything I possibly can find that could be in any way incriminating. Because it tends to work, and whether I'm right or wrong it generally results in more votes on the suspect.

If I'm town, and I am the one who gets to choose who dies, town has a better chance of winning. This is true for most townies, I feel. If it's not me, there's a chance it could be a scum controlling the narrative. If I'm scum, and I am the one who gets to choose who dies, town has far smaller chances for obvious reasons. The expected value of my team goes way up if I'm getting what I want. Expressing confidence, both real and bluffing, helps convince the person I'm pushing in that moment that they're completely doomed and completely caught. I tend to swing in confidence on people. And I don't tend to push that hard on someone I'm not confident on, but there's a bit of theatrics involved.

When I pushed Logic for example, I thought his opening was just kind of being there. I feel like he can get nervous early, so I pushed him. I really bit down when I saw his passive aggression posts and threw everything I could into convincing people he's scum.

I felt like one of Zack or GH could be scum, it was legitimately surprising to see it was both. I was gonna vote Zack on D2, but when votes landed on GH I just went with it because I felt it could be either/or. Don't divide the town, choose one.

Then his reaction to being pushed was really bad. It was both bluffy and stally. That's when I went into kitchen sink mode.

After that, the unusually strong buddying and defending between him and Zack and Zack's own drop in stock since early day one meant he was always suspicious and in the POE for me, and at this point, it was looking like a total collapse. Zack needed to be removed regardless his alignment, or we'd never move past him except by wasting a day phase. And, I don't know if I can get him lynched. In truth, what pushed me over the edge on shooting Zack over Manasi is that she was consensus. I can get Manasi lynched. I can even get both if I shoot Zack. I had Manasi as slightly scummier than Zack and almost switched off, but Manasi was gettable. Either lolcatting or not caring enough to put up a defense.

With you, I'm guarding against someone who plays a lot like me. Your posts all have a very familiar (to me) feeling to them. Controlled and comfortable. No matter what is happening or the situation. My wager is that you actually have fun as scum with your back against the wall. If you're scum here, you see this as the challenge of a lifetime, and there's no way you'd not even be having fun here. If you're like me, nothing says fun like long odds.

But if you're like me then I can see strategy, diplomacy, and potential layers for gambits. So I pushed on that and looked for anything that matches my own scum meta. If I'm in your shoes what do I do?

If it sounds not like you at all, it's because everything I said was exactly what I would have done. And it would have worked, too.

If that's you as scum, then it can very much feel like you've been caught dead to rights. If your whole scheme is unraveling before your eyes, then it can feel like it's unlikely to continue working. But if you're town it can also cause a negative reaction and make you think I'm on drugs.

If parts of the case are just not you at all, then I can understand your reaction. My scum suit might not fit your frame and I was coming on very strong.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lol, I had this same reaction with Pizza's read on Auto who had even fewer posts then Xia and had an almost perfect voting record. I didn't listen to him then and I lost because of it. I'm not saying it couldn't but I just sort of trust Pizza at this point with those low post guys. I literally don't.

The good news bad news is, is if he's scum he won't win, buuuuuutttt....

Auto had a perfect record when I made the read. I think he had 1 post and 1 vote, was on novice iirc? He was on someone I thought was super scummy and was on him all day. And he doesn't make joke votes, or when he does, he doesn't move them. Just super bad for him to do against a partner since moving off for him would be highly unusual.

One day he'll do that and blow me away though. I like being beaten by my own analysis game.

Play against the analysis.

[Askthepizzaguy]

My guess is that he's not an incredibly active as either scum or Town and profile says he's been around since 2010, it may be just one of those things. At this point I literally don't know where I'm at with the remainder of votable players.

I don't know.

I haven't looked at the last game Xiahou played. My memory on this one is a little shaky. I can't remember if this is unusual for him.

I think he was in Pirate Ship. I'll have to check.

[Fredwood]

Auto had a perfect record when I made the read. I think he had 1 post and 1 vote, was on novice iirc? He was on someone I thought was super scummy and was on him all day. And he doesn't make joke votes, or when he does, he doesn't move them. Just super bad for him to do against a partner since moving off for him would be highly unusual.

One day he'll do that and blow me away though. I like being beaten by my own analysis game.

Play against the analysis.

Is Xia similar WRT to Auto? At least your analysis game or w/e you want to call it?

[Askthepizzaguy]

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...-III-Concluded

Xiahou 31 posts all game, was town iirc

Sporadic activity at first.

Had a very active 1 day, was the day he got lynched.

He can go days without activity and post 1 time or 2 times per day as town based off of one game meta.

I think this is likely to be the case if I keep digging.

I have played a lot of games, I do not ever remember being in a game where Xiahou's presence made an impact on my swiss cheese like memory.

Not that he's a bad player or a bad guy, it's just that I'd remember a high poster more, I think. Even if it was back in the day.

I remember the top posters from 5 years ago. Xiahou I don't think was ever one.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is Xia similar WRT to Auto? At least your analysis game or w/e you want to call it?

He's been mostly absent from the gameroom for years and years.

While I have an impression, and that impression is no strong impression, which means he wasn't likely a big poster anytime when I played a lot, I can't reliably say if Xiahou was ever a big talker in the couple of years before my time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Had a very active 1 day, was the day he got lynched.

rephrase: He was very active on ONE of the days. He was much less active on all the rest.

[Fredwood]

So a question to Slaan, Pizza or whomever. Taking out voting record and spew which concerns you more in the current game state (one where we caught 3 scum in the first 2 days):

7 posts total

or

3 posts since Day 1?

[Csargo]

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

I posted the reality of the situation, it still doesn't make sense to me tbh. Why would I do this as scum?

[Askthepizzaguy]

"Ah, right," Double A said. "Nay, not on Night or Day 3 at any rate. Xiahou and Ice were both loyal crewmen. Let's hope we have more luck today. Get votin, ye bloomin' bags o' barracuda bait!"

Xiahou confirmed town in the Pirate game.

So, not unusual for him to have a slow opening several days. Might only pick up in activity if you push him, in fact. Otherwise he might just be content to make a pot shot guess here and there until all the scums are dead.