Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

At this point I'd legit consider you or DP before Csargo, and scum Pizza should never be apologizing for scum-reading his POE.

Hey, you're the one who played all game in a qt with him. If you are town like I think you are, you have the best chance at scum reading him out of anyone. If you're both town-compatible lovers, it's fine. Lynch into Cuth and Xia.

Note: I absolutely have to sleep and I mean on time, this round.

I have important school stuff in the morning.

If I were to survive the night, I am not going to be commenting after the next kill for about 12 hours.

I can't, because I won't be able to sleep. Period. I'm already going to have trouble.

It doesn't matter who gets killed if it's not me. I will be obligated to offer thoughts, so every single scenario was already discussed by me here and now, over the past night phase as well.

It's all there. I cannot be here after the flip.

I cannot even look at the flip. I won't leave the computer if I see it. I can't control myself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, if you want me to vote, don't speed lynch next round.

[Montmorency]

i mean it's not rocket science

power roles and getting two birds with one stone

these both take priority over pizza most likely especially if wolf is someone who he is/was protecting which is almost the entire game at this point

I wish you had posted this a bit later, but OK. My implication was that Mafia in the abstract would take less value from killing me and Csargo, because getting rid of two townies matters less in endgame if it reverts the rounds from even numbers to odd numbers. Keeping us around would therefore be better for Mafia as long as they have hope of mislynching us, otherwise they would end up in LYLO facing two townies rather than a more malleable three. I don't like putting this out in public since it would actually be useful for town if we got killed (and not lynched), so the best hope would be that Mafia doesn't recognize the calculation and just try to get rid of us, but there isn't a point in keeping it on the low anymore. Either it happens right now or it doesn't.

We're not power roles; we can't do anything other than share a QT and a life.

As for your last sentence, do I understand that you're saying Pizza is a doctor? I feel like I'm misunderstanding.

[Sooh]

Good morning everyone!

Ready for another stretch?

Off we go, and remember, it's only a game.... isn't it?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Choxorn has left the building. He was:

Ron Weasley.



While you can come across as a clutz at times, you are a master at Wizard Chess, a skill that has proven useful to you in the past. Given your skills in magic you are able to give those you trust among you certain powers.

During the night you can choose to study a spell. Once you can study a spell which will give your selected target [redacted]. However, since this is deep magic, you are limited to giving each trusted friend only one power. They aren't wizards like you, you know.

You are a town role baker.

EOD6:

[Dp101]

Well that flavour is certainly unexpected. Was kinda hoping one of the lovers gets shot so that we don't have to tinfoil the setup.

[Montmorency]

948 is GH's big reads post, 948.

See also this post for the basic observations and argument: Xiahou is discussed (but not interacted with) in a way that GH-Zack as a pair don't evidence wrt anyone else; they both give noncommittal, nullish assessments.

Remember Reinoe's cool tell about Zack commenting on everyone except Logic (296)? And then Zack asked Logic what he thought about people townreading Kage (496 and answer 518)? History doesn't repeat itself - but Zack does rhyme.

More detailed breakdowns by player for checking my work:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Xiahou: GH put him just below his townline, but wanted to townread him (948). Zack shaded Xiahou for his vote on him but kept him nullish to be resolved later (920), and this indirectly by responding to Csargo asking Xiahou "why" for keeping his vote on Zack and sussing GH.

DEAD SCUM

Logic: GH and Zack take largely similar positions that Logic had a few stains in his play but was mostly like in other games, except where there were differences in how this game's D1 played out - especially as regards Pizza's pressure on him out the gate.

Zack: GH has Zack as top town (948); also wants to know his meta to better read him, townreads as wolf (late 400s-early 500s; Winston finds it towny). Logic never tries to assess Zack.

GH: I'm not sure Zack ever states an outright read on GH (says he and Fred both look good in their exchange, 920), but wants to know GH's meta better to better read him (486-491). Logic may have to re-evaluate GH since he townreads Kage (518).

DEAD TOWN

Barto: GH is nullish, won't be able to read until he flips, self-admittedly a lazy read (744), but by the reads compilation has him scummy third-from-bottom (948). Zack goes hard against Barto (600s, 829),

Choxorn: GH's second-to-bottom scumread (948), just before he votes him. Zack likes the case against him and is the second to vote (931).

Fredwood: GH shades gratuitously (400s), then leans on DP's reads to help read Fred town for the day (744). But by the time of the big leans post (948), Fred is back in moderate scum. Zack has Fred as one of his first comfortable above-null reads, along with Slaan and DP (474); finds both GH and Fred townier after their exchange later ().

Kage: GH has Kage as top town below Zack. Logic goes hard after Kage for voting Slaan (397/9). Zack feels better about Kage after talking to GH (491).

Manasi: GH votes Manasi (838) as a seeming random or pressure vote. Zack asks how well he reads Manasi, and GH says he reads her "reasonably well" (855); Zack meanwhile reads Manasi "not too good, and by which I mean horrible" (860), and that's the end about Manasi for the day.

Reinoe: Shaded by Logic for voting him (397), possibly sheeping Pizza. GH starts by sussing both Reinoe and Fred (477), but eventually Reinoe improves into moderate town (695, 710, 948), but with no progression; one post GH is looking at Reinoe, next he's moderate town w/ no comment. Zack never gives a specific read, but he shades Reinoe for kicking the puppylike DP (474), asks him some questions.

Slaan: Logic thinks town wrt Kage (457). GH starts wary of him but eventually improves to moderate town (477, 948); Slaan is a player who improves as the game goes on. Zack says Slaan seems fine, maybe a good wolf but not worth pursuing early (491).

Winston: Zack susses several times after a playful, mutually passive-agressive start, ultimately settles on Winston probably good (920). Logic shades Winston wrt the problem with lynching Pizza (457). GH has him nullish, second above the town line (948).

LIVING

Csargo: Logic said Csargo and Pizza not teamed, one but not both a wolf (397). Zack had an early-game vote exchange with Csargo, shades him sometimes, got into a meta dispute (high 200s); sometimes accused Pizza of tunneling or wanting to mislynch Csargo (563, 787). Doesn't want to push him, but doesn't want to town-read him (741). See also piggybacking wrt Xiahou (920). GH votes Csargo just after game start (12), shades over posting a gif Csargo had posted previously as scum (372), accuses Pizza of tunneling Csargo and Logic (686), ultimately has him null just below his town line (948).

Cuth: Attacked by all 3 scum (uniquely). Shaded by Logic (397) for shading DP, having feelings no one else does. Zack tears into him... GH votes him but by the long reads post (948) has him moderate scum, between Xiahou and Fredwood.

DP: Logic says town, not teamed with Zack or Pizza (397). GH (477, 948) and Zack both think he's town, until the sudden flip with the CFD.

Monty: GH had me as 3rd most town (948). Zack seemed to be increasingly hostile as OMGUS over the day, culminating in the CFD (note how Zack was confronted early in the day about an alleged OMGUS habit by Csargo, a habit he vehemently denied.) Logic had no comment on me other than shading Pizza when I asked him about interactions between DP and Pizza.

Pizza: Logic shades for acting weird (397, others). GH and Zack threw plenty of criticisms, but overall liked to read him town.

Side note: Looking back GH had some sloppy progressions on the low-posters and Fred up to his culmination for the day, the 948 reads post.

[Montmorency]

Well that flavour is certainly unexpected. Was kinda hoping one of the lovers gets shot so that we don't have to tinfoil the setup.

Sounds like he had unlimited shots.

My Vote: Xiahou, is.

[Dp101]

Sounds like he had unlimited shots.

My Vote: Xiahou, is.

I'll join you later, I don't feel like hammering immediately today.

[Dp101]

Hey Xia, can you give any of us any reason not to vote you?

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Xiahou (1): Montmorency,

Not voting (5): Cuthillius, Xiahou, Csargo, Pizza, Dp101,

With 6 players there are 4 to hammer.


EOD4:

[Cuthillius]

oh

there are six people left

i

have not been paying very much attention

[Dp101]

oh

there are six people left

i

have not been paying very much attention

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

[Cuthillius]

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

fun fun

[Cuthillius]

i want you to picture the situation where the lovers are not NKed

and figure out what on earth we'd do

because i'm really not sure how i'd feel about that

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

Why?

[Askthepizzaguy]

i want you to picture the situation where the lovers are not NKed

and figure out what on earth we'd do

because i'm really not sure how i'd feel about that

Well, the game is already over by then, because you're innocent.

Did you forget?

[Askthepizzaguy]

A situation where the lovers are not nightkilled is the situation where Askthepizzaguy gets murdered.

Leaving a final 4 of dp101, Cuth, Csargo, and Monty.

From Cuth's POV, he's innocent, and therefore the final scum would have to therefore be inside of dp101, or Csargo/Monty.

If the final scum is one of the lovers, mechanically the game doesn't make a lot of sense.

So he's basically accusing dp101 of being the final scum.

Or me, because I like to kill my partner Zack with a vig shot.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And by the way, we're also predicting the Xiahou lynch results in a dead townie.

Something that I've been told by a few people here ain't gonna happen.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I have a loooooooooot of skeptical face about the Xiahou lynch and think we should lynch Cuth, then Xiahou, if we are indeed committed to those two.

[Cuthillius]

Well, the game is already over by then, because you're innocent.

Did you forget?

see but

what if it isn't

i'm not as comfortable about the mechanical lover read as you are, honestly

i agree that it's unlikely

but i do think that them still being alive would be... awkward, especially depending on other kills

meh

[Askthepizzaguy]

One of the lovers is never going to be lynched this game.

If it's one of them, the game is over.

Xiahou, you me and dp101 are the only ones alive who could lynch inside of there, and we would need all 4 votes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

One of the lovers is not going to lynch the other tomorrow. Their reads would have to flip and there's just no reason to do so.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Cuthillius

I'm not looking to start a fight or cause a fuss, but I want to walk you through what I'm thinking now, in a completely inoffensive way.

You know I suspect it's you over Xiahou. Let's pretend I am wrong, and for this post, you're a townie. But I still suspect you.

You would be in the unique position, from my point of view, of knowing that Monty and Csargo are both townies and also, don't know each other are townies.

In such a scenario, it's viable to kill me and leave them alive in a final 4, hoping you could persuade dp101 and Monty to lynch Csargo, or dp101 and Csargo to lynch Monty, or to persuade the lovers that dp101 is the final scum and that stuff between GH/Zack and dp was all a trick to get him townread.

Your survivability, shall we say, improves dramatically, from that certain point of view. You think you got better odds in a final 4, mainly because dp and I town read each other.

But Cuth, you're forgetting they shared a qt all game and are very strongly townreading the other. One of the lovers will not break ranks and lynch the other tomorrow, even if they don't know each other is innocent for a fact.

They will not lynch dp101.

That's not a viable route to victory.

You'd do better with me and dp101 both alive in final 3 because the two of us shouldn't both be alive in final 3 because then you're putting both of us together in a final 3 with you and then tinfoils can happen.

I even spent about 5 minutes thinking about it, and realized I was thinking about it, and I also realized that dp101 might spend more than 5 minutes thinking about it.

That's the best route, if I were in your shoes. Because it's less likely to make sense, from our perspective.

And when two strong mutual townreads find themselves in an f3, the tinfoils get insane. Like, nonsensically insane. Anything can happen.

[Askthepizzaguy]

At final 4, it's fruitless to try to get dp to lynch one of the lovers when they won't lynch inside themselves.

Then the vote count is 2-2 at best.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The final 3 scenario cannot result in a locked vote, so you always have to kill the lover team tonight.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

This.

It's just not viable to not shoot the lovers, as unpleasant as any final 3 situation might be, it's the only endgame where anything can happen.

final 4 results in the lover team always having 2 votes against one of the remaining 2 people. You have to then conceive of a scenario where they lynch either dp101 or Pizza.

That one just seems like wishful thinking to me.

So if it is Xiahou, you have to lynch him today, Cuth, because lylo will include either the lover team or me in it, and you don't win that lylo unless you convince dp101 to lynch me.

You have to be a townie and he has to be a wolf or it's game over.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I will always have trouble lynching Xiahou over you tomorrow.

If it's him, this is the only day that's possible, for me being alive to help you lynch him.

[Cuthillius]

leaving aside the hypotheticals of what i would or would not do, because i honestly have no idea-- i think this gamestate is massively affected by whoever the remaining wolf is, whether that is xia or someone else

i think, again, depending on who it is, it wouldn't be shockingly disadvantageous for a wolf to bring the lovers into f4

i agree that if it's me it would be a death sentence, because that's three people who would probably come into the day thinking i have the least going for me, and i'd have to talk them into voting one of them

i think if the wolf is... either you or in the lovers, it also makes a reasonable amount of sense to go there?

even though mechanically speaking it would be telling to some extent, in theory, unless someone's playing headgames that are just straight up bad

if it's dp then... he's probably good with killing the lovers, because it probably gives him the game

then again if it's me i really would have no good options, you and dp are both quite certain of each other's alignments and he would be very unlikely to follow me over you, because i don't have your silver tongue

honestly all this is just persuading me more and more that it's gotta be xia out of desperation and the unlikelihood of anyone else actually being a wolf

but

realistically

the lovers should/would be killed tonight if xia is a villager, probably from any of our three's perspective as a wolf

bringing them to f4 would be (quite literally) self-defeating unless the wolf is relatively confident they're not going to get any of the votes

but this is why i'm bringing the possibility up now

because while it's a mechanical unlikelihood, it is a possibility, and one we should probably weigh and think about

[Cuthillius]

also while you keep harping on the "i vigged zack" line

i just don't think a wolfteam composed of the three dead wolves plus you ever ever ever behaves like that

[Montmorency]

I think you guys are feeling the corners of something, but not quite grasping it: if bringing lovers to LYLO creates a high likelihood of a tie, then maybe that's just fine.

If scum were one of Pizza or DP, they kill us lovers, lynch Cuth, easy. If scum were one of Xiahou or Cuth, go for a paranoia tie because then they have a 50% chance of victory.

And maybe that's the best they can hope for.