Casual december game

[Kagemusha]

After reading today?s posts as well. Im gonnavote: Hollowkatt. You seem to be all over the place, so much that it seems like you are just being active for sake of activity. Can you share your top suspects and give reasoning for why?

[ladd]

That's a lot of reads this early in the game. Probably towny, though?

Okay, that's funny.

Meh, I immediately stopped believing my own logic.

Vote: Logic

I don't actually have reads aside from this at the moment, so don't ask me to give them.

i have seen good wolves do both of these "tricks" a ton of times

[Renata]

Cape's ISO kind of feels like that in a lot of places. People who have Cape in nulls on down I don't really understand and would like an explanation for.

[ladd]

Lean wolf
12. Vulgard
6. luvs2spooge
5. Ampharos
9. EnderWiggin

nice list IYAM


coincidentally pizza also posting pretty villagery now

[Renata]

After reading today?s posts as well. Im gonnavote: Hollowkatt. You seem to be all over the place, so much that it seems like you are just being active for sake of activity. Can you share your top suspects and give reasoning for why?

I think I'd like you nail down what you're looking at when you say "all over the place".

[ladd]

I'm starting to think you are faking those reads. There's no way you have a confident worldview right now and believe it so strongly.

Me thinking this probably makes you town, though.

[ladd]

vote logic

seems like an obvious wolf

sick read

[Vulgard]

i read it and dont get how it's relevant

explain plz?

I thought it was relevant to his early-game posting. He has since stopped doing that, so it is relevant no longer. I said that because people were reading Pizza based on what were essentially shitposts from him and I thought that was silly.

[ladd]

I'm not going to lie - I am a bit concerned about ladd as well for his post about Logic here.



Same idea as my AOTP concerns, just ignore the part about effort because ladd has barely posted. I don't like the confidence coming into this read, especially since it's a popular take and it feels like an LHF-y target if town. The latter part might be a bit tacked-on and forced in my part, which could lead me to confbiasing the slot, but the first part stands.

i'll never get why people even try this instead of just waiting for me to post more when they know I (almost) always will have a lot more to read me on than 1 post


also I am kinda a sucker for vulgard's post on this page about their recent villa games and not making reads and I guess it adds up+read above is not a read wolves have ever made on me

so leaning villa on them now

[ladd]

I thought it was relevant to his early-game posting. He has since stopped doing that, so it is relevant no longer. I said that because people were reading Pizza based on what were essentially shitposts from him and I thought that was silly.

i still dont see what pre game posts had to do with it

reading anyone on shit posts is silly

but alrighty

[Kagemusha]

I think I'd like you nail down what you're looking at when you say "all over the place".

Hollowkatt has so far voted ATGP, luv2spooge, dyachei and Visor, but i have not seen any attempt of case or building pressure against any of them.

[Vulgard]

i still dont see what pre game posts had to do with it

reading anyone on shit posts is silly

but alrighty

He said pregame he was going to shitpost, then he shitposted for part of day 1 and yet I saw people making reads on him based on it.

[dyachei]

Some selected vulgard posts to show why I think he's villagery. Btw the iso process here sucks

I've realized this isn't very helpful.

My opinion switch was less about what Logic did and more about my thought process. I wasn't happy with me having called Logic towny for that post and 180'd.

I like that he's reconsidering his reads. This doesn't read as hedgy to me but thinking through his reads repeatedly. I don't think he would do this as obviously as a wolf

It's almost like there is nuance in mafia and not everyone has confident, binary reads on people ~12 hours into a game.

I think this sass is villagery.

I'm starting to think you are faking those reads. There's no way you have a confident worldview right now and believe it so strongly.

Me thinking this probably makes you town, though.

I understand the thought process on this one and have explained already why I think other interpretations were pretty uncharitable. This is also from a person who has, on multiple occasions, talked about how bad their recent town games were.

And now I can answer Pizza's concerns from earlier in more depth. I feel genuinely scared of making reads now, because I just finished a game where I had 4 villagers as wolfreads and two wolves as towncore. We did end up winning that game, but I almost singlehandedly made us lose it, and it took the presence of another villager who became an IC for us to win. It was by far my worst town performance ever.

I also had really terrible reads in some other recent games, which doesn't help. So, yeah. I do have thoughts, but I'm afraid of expressing them because I don't want to be lolwrong again. My last game was an awful performance, so was the game before that, and I tried to express more confidence in both because people have historically wolfread me for hedging, much like you're doing. But me expressing more confidence just led to me becoming even more lolwrong and pushing the wolves' agenda for them.

Realistically, I suspect you for being so confident in such a major solve, Pizza, because I couldn't imagine being this confident this early. I simply could not. I don't have a single read right now that I would 100% commit to. I had two such reads early into my last game and both were horrendously wrong. You have a world of four already.

Your pushes on players other than myself also rub me the wrong way. The push on Ender especially feels like you're seeing something I can't possibly see. From my perspective, Ender did something that vaguely seemed pockety, I told him half-jokingly that he was trying to pocket an innocent townie, he bounced back. This could've just been banter or a V/V interaction on our part. He could be a villager for it! Or just a villager. But you seem to be reading his behavior there as really wolfy to the point that you see me as a wolf with him (or at least that's how I interpreted your posting about us). It's really hard for me to parse your confidence, even with your explanation just now, and the thought process around me and Ender. I just think you're reading into stuff with Ender that isn't necessarily there.

And of course, if Ender is a wolf, then you're going to have been right, then I'm going to look awful for making this post, then i might get yeeted and feel I deserved it for playing poorly yet again. Always a risk, and not even too unlikely. You could be right and I could be the dumbass for wolfreading you here. I'm just sitting here with my little perspective and my instinct says "this guy could easily be tryhard wolfing here despite saying he wouldn't tryhard. He shouldn't be trying this hard as a villager, he said he wouldn't try hard and villagers care less, especially when they give slank cover like this." But I'm not even sure if this is a good line of thinking.

It's basically that. I can't express a confident read. Because when I do, I ruin games. My ability to find wolves is bad and does not improve. My ability to find town is hit or miss. I sometimes write godly posts, but I can never recognize when, and I do not pursue it when I do. Me being accused of hedging, and you calling it so wolfy, and you putting so much pressure on me for it, it kinda just feels like you're being opportunistic, especially since you're not looking into why I might be hedging. I feel like that should be a consideration.

I'm talking a lot about myself in this post and it's probably not really helping, but I can't formulate my thoughts about you without talking about myself first and explaining why I'm not giving many reads, especially confident reads. I know that the way I'm reacting to my poor performance in the last game is probably not the best (outright not making confident reads because my last ones were wrong), but the inaccuracy of my reads has been consistent enough lately that I'd rather just give thoughts instead of reads, if that makes sense, and hope that these thoughts help other people - presumably with better reads than me - nail wolves.

I'm not sure how I will operate independently, and I probably won't figure it out this game.

I should end this post here, and I am.

I think the introspection in this post and it's rambliness is more likely to come from a villager. I think a wolf would be more succinct about it.

Main reason I think this is that his reads look weird to me. He has Logic/Vulgard/ATPG as his set of wolfreads, and I think that's a really strange grouping to have as your wolfreads, particularly me/ATPG as I feel like our interactions cannot be perceived as W/W. Spooge, if you read this, please explain that part. If these are all independent wolfreads, then I also think they're weird and I'd like you to explain more.

Although I don't agree with vulgard in this post, it shows he's thinking about reads and what they mean for the game. Also showing that he's grasping who can't be w/w even though it's about himself.

Taffy is my top town.

Csargo/dya/Ender/Taffy is a grouping of people who have staunchly townread me. I do townread them indepenedently, but I feel like their reads on me could be biasing me. Possibly a wolf in here but I don't necessarily want to go there; rn I'd say the wolf is between Csargo and Ender.

I think hollowkatt is probably town, particularly for his posting today.

ladd is probably town for his play on d1 being very idgaf yet wagon switching from Logic when I think he could've reasonably stuck there.

Cape maaaaaybe town but I don't actually believe this super strongly, feels =rand.

Kagemusha is hard null and might actually be a wolf given how many others I townread. Renata is also null and I don't know how people have reads on them. Boquise is null as well.

Pizza is... yeah. I kinda think him not dying last night makes him a wolf and I also had suspicions of him on day 1. He's apparently going to claim PR or something but idk if I'm going to believe him.

Amy/Ender probably contains a wolf by gamestate but if they're V/V I wouldn't necessarily be surprised. I don't have a clear independent read on Amy. I kinda think of both of them as gut town but such reads have literally just failed me in a recent game so I shouldn't put too much stock into them maybe, and I didn't have an independent read on Amy.

I'm taking notice of Logic having a hard wolfread on Visor for pushing him in the first place, and Visor trying to do damage control this SOD. Visor is a strong wolflean.

I think Montmorency is a wolf.

Idk if you can parse this at all but this is more or less what I think. It's not a very clear solve and it's probably never going to be.

I think a wolf would be more...concrete in explaining their reads than this

I admit several of these are weak reasons to v read someone, but looking at the body of work from vulgard makes me think he's a villager

[Vulgard]

Hollowkatt has so far voted ATGP, luv2spooge, dyachei and Visor, but i have not seen any attempt of case or building pressure against any of them.

Would you say his pushes have been... hollow?

[Renata]

town reads:
cape, vulgard

town leans:
visor, dya, hk, luvs

i am too tired after today smh

i had previously a weak town lean on Amy, as described earlier. I am reverting the read to a weak scum lean because of how Amy is approaching the game and me reminds me of how they have approached those things previously as mafia. Like super easily town read me earlier today for my responses. Amy is a prone Boqusher and is easily paranoid of me tbh. I expected her to feel like I was pocketing her and react to that, if she is town. I have previously misread Amy due to her town reading me and due to how I usually read their mood (it is very relatable tbh).

Also this post:


Feels like Amy hiding thoughts from the thread. It is hard for Logic to combat this post due to its secrecy. i have more words but they cant get out atm tbh


oh and i voted Kage because there was a post I disliked and I wanted to see how the thread reacted tbh

@Boquise: which post?

[Vulgard]

Oh yeah, Boquise townread me too, huh.

[Vulgard]

Tbh Boquise could just be good at reading me. Last time we played together he found me early as well when I was generally a wolfread.

[Kagemusha]

Would you say his pushes have been... hollow?

I think you hit the nail in the head there. Well said.

[ladd]

Speaking of my reads, I ought to compile them.

I have dya V for her approach to my slot and to the game in general, they're just chillin'. This is the type of read I'm somewhat likely to be wrong about, so I don't want to attribute too much weight to it, but I feel good enough about dya for now.

I also felt good about Csargo when he was posting. The read on him is dropping a bit because of recency bias, but it's still there.

I had a dumb read on Visor/ladd that they were V/V for ladd explaining his wolfread on Logic in a very memeworthy way and Visor V reading him for it immediately, then them entering banter. I felt like that was the type of thing villagers do with each other as they find each other but neither feels like making a show of it.

Ender/Amy/ATPG is a weird group that contains a wolf IMO. I currently think the wolf is most likely ATPG, but I also think that ATPG is the most isolated-in-thread of these players, and I want to respect his reads a bit, which is why the two people he sussed the most openly are also in this grouping. Basically, he's either a wolf pushing town (Ender and Amy) or he's right on at least one of them is the way I see the situation. Not exactly helpful to see it this way because it doesn't allow determining which one to vote, but it does narrow down the focus a bit, I suppose. I currently think ATPG is the wolfiest, but I have some concerns about this belief considering how big of a role he's played so far and how few people have actually talked about him in a meaningful way. Though on the other hand I don't know if him not being talked about in a meaningful way by most players (by meaningful, I mean with actual conclusions in regard to his alignment) makes him town, it could just make him a wolf lol (imagine knowing and applying consistent principles for catching wolves). Kinda tempted to move my vote there, but. Fwiw, if ATPG flips mafia, I would strongly consider clearing Ender and Amy, even though ATPG said he was more than happy to leave distancing spew. And if one of Ender/Amy flips mafia, probably give ATPG some time and see if he dies for it (because by his own admission, he should).

Logic just feels like a slot everyone has silently agreed is mafia and I'm probably okay with yeeting him.

good post


i have a bad feeling about visor posting around here tho

him wolfreading cape cause of formatting when he has def played with cape before is


damn i love the emojis here

[Renata]

Initial focused read of Boquise: Not in my immediate PoE after all, I think they're probably town. Whatever you're seeing @Visor and whatever Spooge saw, I'm not seeing it. The only thing that's maybe a little iffy to me was the vote on Ampharos, how it was so much more explainy than their iso as a whole, but like, the actual content is I think supportable. I can tinfoil it as a protection of Ender-buddy but then I have to assume the criticism of Ender for not doing a proper reaction check is distancing, while himself actually doing a proper reaction check with his own vote on Kage, and blah. Convince me more, I'll leave the iso up.

[Renata]

Hollowkatt has so far voted ATGP, luv2spooge, dyachei and Visor, but i have not seen any attempt of case or building pressure against any of them.

Danke. Worth a look.

[ladd]

To put my cards on the table, my YOLO during the first 12 hours or so was Amp-Logic-Ender-Visor plus one secret sauce. Has that concept turned out to be the basic shape of the day somehow?

@Montmorency why was that your guess? any particular reason?

[ladd]

alrighty i am done with d1

i think ender is a wolf:

1) his interactions with pizza are a perfect example of how wolves approach a villager they don't want to get a fight into with If you read their interactions, ender is always subtly hinting at pizza that he wants the discussion to be over, despite not really conceding the point

2) i was with him on the logic wolfread to start but then when logic came back and he posted a lot better he just kept going to bury him. it doesnt feel like he is sorting him out he just wanted to kill him iyam. framing his play as "logic wouldnt give himself up like this as a villager" (or something along those lines) is not genuine nor true considering logic was making posts like this:

I just spent the last 14 hours playing a 24-year-old Video game, AMA

Anyway, to more relevant thoughts, Visor voting for me is the only one I would call an indictment.

There are a handful of people that can soulread me correctly every time, and visor is on that list.

Ladd I think should be able to read me correctly by now, but I can forgive him at this point.

Pizza having sus but not committing to it is about right for him, so I'm giving him a day pass (as if I could be the pebble that brings down a mountain on him)

Dya being comfortable? on day 1 I think is their wolfy meta.

TLDR
After I flip villager, nuke visor.

Vote: Visor

3) bunch of thoughts that are made to look villagery but actual villagers don't actually have (e.g. the reaction test on the monty vote, the "lets wait 20 hours" obvious wolf) and are made to look performative


if ender is indeed a wolf i think amy has to die 100% and is probably a wolf for this post and eod in general:

meh i think im gonna stay on logic

my reasons to wolfread him initially were a lot more well-founded than my reasons to walk it back and i want to believe it's just a classic case of "gut doubts a wolfread after said wolfread posts more, regardless of what the posts actually say"

i did think the whole "i think d1 misses are good actually" was a strange line for a wolf to take but i guess it's not really villagery either

they were switching to a logic villa read but once ender became a wagon they had this forced turn aroudn back to voting logic

imo they should have had more doubts on logic being a wolf


same kinda applies to visor, i feel he generally is more paranoid about luches ike the logic one as a villager?

tho idk if visor/amy works together (maybe it does!) and i think amy post above was way worse

and even individually i think amy is wolfy, visor is kinda w/e


my strongest villa reads are cape/vulgard

then pizza/taffy (idk if i mentioned them but i really liked a string of posts they had on..some page. it was v genuine imo)

then i villa lean a bunch of people but i could easily be wrong on them -csargo/monty/dya/boq/HK



i gotta go, will try to read up on d2 tomorrow

[ladd]

vote: ender

[ladd]

oh and luvspooge was probably mac

for postgame credit

[Vulgard]

Idk maybe I should just sheep y'all and kill Ender/Amy.

I'm currently on Ender.

[Visor]

oh and luvspooge was probably mac

for postgame credit

agreed

was isoing them earlier and saw something that reminded me of them

[Visor]

Idk maybe I should just sheep y'all and kill Ender/Amy.

I'm currently on Ender.

i am ok with this

[Renata]

This is going to be such a pain to format.

Somewhere prior to post 300, Ender made what I took as a pocketing joke toward Vulgard and Vulgard responded with what read to me as joining in on the same joke. Pizza took it more seriously and asked how Vulgard was reading Ender. Vulgard replied town. Pizza does this:

Lean wolf
12. Vulgard
6. luvs2spooge
5. Ampharos
9. EnderWiggin

zipping Vulgard to the top of scum leans and asked this:

Then why are you suggesting he is pocketing you?

My mental thought on this was along the lines of "Oh bullshit, Pizza, that was obviously a joke". But Vulgard then answered this:

It was more of a reaction assessment than a read. I think he could possibly have been trying to pocket me, but I'm not sure. If I actually thought he was a wolf, I would be voting him.

And I still do not believe that it was actually a reaction assessment.

@dyachei Can you comment on this please within the context of your Vulgard town lean. I agree with you that I misread that one post of Vulgard's, but it feels like you're sticking to the AtE aspect of Vulgard's posts and skipping over other things that I see, such as this.

There is also this post of Pizza's

Unless a cop or a vig claims on day one, or you are a masonry and have someone you know for a fact needs protection, I will request 1 doctor protection for night one.

I am doing it right now, well before anyone suspects me, before anyone has started doing anything, before I have earned it by yeeting a wolf, and after saying I will probably slank on day one.

Why? Because I would like to read the game overnight, after the day one flip, and actually be able to post my analysis at start of day two.

I have been unable to do that in half of my games. So, if you have nothing better, no reason to go elsewhere, I request just that one night.

Roleblocking me is also fine, if you're a jailer. That is perfectly reasonable.

I have no night abilities, or if I do, you can roleblock them n1 and it won't matter to me at all.

to which Vulgard responded that it was towny. Which I also struggle to see as a real read.

And as long as I'm here:

Hm hm hm.

I like Vulgard's posts. But not entirely sure how much of that is because it feels like they're seeing what I see.

(This was about Logic.) The more I look at this the more it pains me.

[Renata]

By the way this is Vulgard's actual comment that he said later was a reaction assessment.

Don't pocket me because I try not to be an awful townie :( You're taking advantage of my desperation not to suck.

I can't see this as a reaction assessment, I just can't. I can be be persuaded by AtE, I can believe I'm probably wrong about everything else, but I'm stuck on this.

(Ender's pockety comment that this was in response to was "I mean you bending yourself about specifics just makes me think you're town so good job =P")