Tarot Mafia

[ladd]

vote:wisdom

I will be back tomorrow

[Dolby]

If I get voted out today, just kill dolby tonight for this dumb line.

Or haul him off to prison and execute him, that'd be cool too.

ToS jailer is unstoppable and pierces immunity, does yours also Jan?

Vote: Maple

Yeah I think I'm just not gonna move

I firmly believe that we will always be given a reason to keep giving Maple one more day, and the claim doesn't actually mean anything towards Manti's alignment. It's a role madness game, of course Manti has a role that does stuff.

I don't think that Manti is town, and I think all five names in her POE are villagers rn. I kinda think that Manti is likely to be a stronger wolf than Wisdom just on the basis that Wisdom's claim isn't the strongest if they are w/w I guess but I don't really put much stock into that portion of this read.

Manti put your money where your mouth is and vote me, not one of the other names on that list

[Montmorency]

It's not Role Madness btw, most players aren't PRs here. As far as we know.

[Wisdom]

Because I had to target a player reasonably likely to be a villager who had less odds of dying. I figured bop was always dying, I figured the wolves would kill into the PRs, so I went with Arctic.

Smh

If you're really town here you're super unlucky but I don't think that's the case

[grr]

Oki.

Vote: ladd

[theknightsofneeee]

honestly man idk how many times i've said it i'm getting boring of saying it

stop using the word lynch pls

i've been trying, my last like 4-5 posts i've been saying elim.

but i've been saying the other word for literally over a decade so its hard to switch on a dime.

you'll just have to bear with me, sorry

[nebjiamn]

Also Benneh, elaborate on threadspewed v for Vanta please?

day 1 to day 2 I feel like there was a lot of caution around their slot from various players and several people commented (probly including me at some point) about how they would die to village KP almost certainly this game and the general sentiment was they were ==rand

and on day 2 ppl just started... clearing her, or at least, townleaning her and the discussion about them getting killed just kinda died down and i got the impression no one that's a villager really wolf read her for her posts, it was more just a volume thing, and no one that's a wolf felt like they could really push her or take that line cause they knew it would look pretty weird if/when vanta flips v and was seen as a LHF / lazy kill

its just a vibe of a gamestate read but my read doesn't hinge on that, it just bolsters it a bit

[nebjiamn]

A few immediate thoughts:

- In the event Ladd is a wolf their approach with Syn at eod1 is to poke holes in Syn defenses. Notably when people are using things like Rask's god read of Syn as a reason not to vote Syn and replying that Rask has backed off some (to Jan) but also to be hedging on Syn himself by saying more villagery than the wolf game but not as villagery as the villa game. Which my initial feeling is that w!ladd would either take a stance on wolf syn to either defend or get credit OR just let others defend Syn via Rask but he does neither. He even then comes out and says even if Syn is a wolf it's not outing for Rask so like, he's also not tying together Rask/Syn in the "in Syn dies wolf then Rask is wolfy" way either? The town list of ladd/newcomb/stett/arctic/bop/grrr/jan/dya that he dropped is looking pretty fire atm if I listen to people about Grrr and believe the Jan/Dya claims (and I'll get to Dya shortly but I think that's a lock V). I really like the inquiry to Jan about why it has to be Rask or Syn while Jan is voting Rask and being adamant that Rask over Syn is the way to go in this situation.

there's some stuff I want to look back on that ladd mentioned re: his interactions d1 with maple being somewhat clearing/unaligned. if that's true that might be a good way to read into ladd more

but idrt the way you're talking about his approach to syn/rask/elsewhere does much for me? to quote you, titans of werewolf were pushing on sheep/knights that EOD (ladd and newcomb) and if that's v/v ladd could have just assumed him doing that + voting gemma would be enough to get through d1 unscathed?

- I gave a lot of credit for Insomnia's vote on Syn "without reading their posts" but one thing I'm concerned about now is that Insomnia mentioned multiple times that he had no read on Syn as people discussed - couldn't remember any posts, didn't read them, etc - and at no point just ... went and read them? And in hindsight I kind of hate the shade of Knights (who i think is a very likely villager) for caring more than Gemma? Like Gemma was posting this whole time and Insomnia never even mentioned Gemma outside of this. I have slight concerns about a Insom/Gemma/Maple team at the moment but that's whatever/i havent read everything again yet so thats just my eod1 hmmm vibe. But I do want to spend some time just going over my Insomnia read today after giving so many villa points for eod that I dont really hold on reread.

meta wise, he hates bussing in turbos and mashes and i'm pretty sure this also holds true in longform games. idt insom's vote is on syn in a place where it makes sense to consider syn dead-weight to the point a non-busser feels the need to softly bus/gain cred, and even if it was or we ignored that, i feel like his excuse wouldnt be so laissez faire about how he didn't read their posts or have an opinion. wolf!insom is more than capable and i think more likely to gather some kind of fake thoughts to push out a wolf hoping to grab cred like that.

ignoring meta, i just think his posting is like, good, and with some of the rambling and direction he's been taking the thread when writing his posts, they don't seem to be doing much for his team other than him being villa read here on d3 when we've hit 2 days in a row (albeit yesterday could be considered a 'win' for wolves, but w/e)

[Jan]

Vote: Maple

Yeah I think I'm just not gonna move

I firmly believe that we will always be given a reason to keep giving Maple one more day, and the claim doesn't actually mean anything towards Manti's alignment. It's a role madness game, of course Manti has a role that does stuff.

I don't think that Manti is town, and I think all five names in her POE are villagers rn. I kinda think that Manti is likely to be a stronger wolf than Wisdom just on the basis that Wisdom's claim isn't the strongest if they are w/w I guess but I don't really put much stock into that portion of this read.

Manti put your money where your mouth is and vote me, not one of the other names on that list

This line actually reeks of false bravado.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Yeah I figure that's the best line, now it's just a matter of talking the thread into it.

I'm just getting started on breakfast right now. I think it's reasonably likely that you, knights, dya, prooooooobably grrr, maybe sunbae, hard maybe insomnia as villagers but that last one is based of a pretty shaky foundation at this point. I think if there is an arsonist it's likely that the ff claim is correct regardless of alignment, but can arso usually douse/ignite on the same night? Like, maybe it's a day action and ignites at night idk. How do we know they don't just have guns? Not sure. Jan getting a n1 save is totally plausible iyam

Ender I'm not really sure on. Frankly, I'm not actually sure if this game is role madness or if the limited number of VTs are just playing along. The timing of their claim is >rand v but again idk about all that stuff.

That leaves Ben Mont gemma vanta dolby (plus whatever I'm uncertain about above)

I mean off raw vibes, gemma is decent. I forgot vanta was still alive honestly. Need to reread Ben and mont again. Rask flipping 3p is actually annoying af cause it means a bunch of thoughts i jad yesterday are just straight up invalid. I'm still on the murder dolby plan, but eh I'm probably forced to jump out of that tunnel if I don't wanna die today.

Dolby basically never gets killed today in this game state and maple voting most people on that list is not making a huge difference today.
the leftovers basically have no heat right now and the one person he forgot is ladd who is not excluded before and not on the leftover list.

I cannot see anybody saying that and actually meaning it. *shrug*

[Jan]

day 1 to day 2 I feel like there was a lot of caution around their slot from various players and several people commented (probly including me at some point) about how they would die to village KP almost certainly this game and the general sentiment was they were ==rand

and on day 2 ppl just started... clearing her, or at least, townleaning her and the discussion about them getting killed just kinda died down and i got the impression no one that's a villager really wolf read her for her posts, it was more just a volume thing, and no one that's a wolf felt like they could really push her or take that line cause they knew it would look pretty weird if/when vanta flips v and was seen as a LHF / lazy kill

its just a vibe of a gamestate read but my read doesn't hinge on that, it just bolsters it a bit

I don't think wolves cared to push vanta until this point because they have enough targets and they can kill the people villa reading her first and consider turning that read later on.
It is not hard for me to map out today and wolves who actually know alignments likely have a good idea about tomorrow as well and know when/if they need to slowly drag her into the poe.

[nebjiamn]

i'm considering Syn as a CW here. Went and skimmed their iso and there's some good vibes but at this point in the game I see a pretty eyebrow raising lack of anything I'd call substance.

The main points I'm getting are:

- lots of people are passing the vibe check
- doesn't like walls, skimming
- some shade at Rask for having an early read on them
- Gemma is posting well
- votes sheep, no reason given
- has a reads list, no real reasons
- lack of consensus D1 is to be expected

Yeah idk I'm definitely not seeing anything I'd call an interest in solving the game. I'd be interested in someone with meta on Syn to kind of give me a general idea of them as a player. I'm down with a certain amount of carefree shitposty flighty energy but I'm not seeing anything where there's even a little spark of a thread to follow and then it's followed. Just a ton of fluff.

man this guys' so fuckin good fr

[nebjiamn]

@Newcomb syn was a wolf in their last game here and was def worse but i also think they are worse here than their vila games...so inconclusive. If it helps you give a baseline they are generally a snarky villager with fairly confident reads who makes a lot 1 liners

eh i feel like this post kinda goes against my original thoughts and somewhat validates what sunbae was thinking re: ladd. like, it reads like a defense sorta but not really. this doesn't feel like a response with TMI that syn is wolf and its somewhat unprompted from ladd (newcomb asked for it but ladd coulda ignored or gave a more vague/cloudy answer)

gona ponder on it a bit

[Maple]

let's just keep calling venti clear today and hope the wolves kill them in the night

[nebjiamn]

@Sunbae i reread eod focusing on gemma a bit more beyond the iso and ... ya, sorry, not much changed

i wont be floored if they're a wolf but i still see little things that make me lean v? like i hear what you are saying but its not clicking for me

[nebjiamn]

let's just keep calling venti clear today and hope the wolves kill them in the night

i dont get the reference honestly but i can tell its funny

[Maple]

If ladd's a wolf, I'm fighting for my life to avoid the pocket. I'm still thinking him over. I did, indeed, forget to list him in that prior post, and he would in fact have been in the bottom group (hence the "and anyone im forgetting")

idk i *know* im being too soft this game on my village reads cause I genuinly just don't have enough wolf reads

with a 3p flip that puts us into 21p so that's just 4 wolves + SK or 5 wolves if the 3p was benign

so like 3 wolves outta all these players?

Let's just assume I'm right about dolby. That my clears on jan, dya, knights are correct. I'm just not touching being wrong on knights like right now. I have grr who is ~probably village based on like big vibes stuff that's been discussed a lot, i believe

insomnia i can pretty easily be wrong on. Same with sunbae, but I don't think I am.

idk ben feels like he just *shouldnt* be a wolf (which makes rask flipping 3p so gd annoying, tbh, im gonna need to reread the ENTIRE yesterday section there with that context in mind)

i just don't *get* wisdom this game. I dunno, it's a massive void in the middle of the game for me cause like okay let's say they're ff, what are they doing? If they're wolf, what are they doing? Idk I need to re-iso the slot again, I guess.

[Maple]

and yes, i recognize that i'm posting exactly like how i post as a wolf, we're all going to have to deal with it together

presumably by putting me into the ground, but hey we all saw that coming

[insomnia]

@Dolby

it seems like you're pretty familiar with ender's meta. do you actually think he could fake all of the things he's done this game as a wolf? it was my impression that whenever he was wolf in my games, it was simply a PoE process thing where i'd open his iso and come out with a true null or i'd have to make a ton of mental gymnastics to interpret micro moments as villagery, not even at a macro level

i would kinda like more insight there cuz idk if im just tripping here for thinking he's just a villa

benneh can prob answer too cuz he's played with him iirc


sunbae, i've only started re-reading D1 but isoing is hell on this site. idt i've done a single iso, most of my reads are just reading the whole thread and im lazy. i guess us not vibing in real time and you having a waller-y type of posting style is making me not appreciate the finer details, but then again i had no issue villa reading bop so i guess i just haven't seen something that would move you out of PoE for me. i'll likely get to reading you / benneh once we flip in maple / wisdom or some other people, ergo my opinion should only matter once we have some chance to kill / save you

[insomnia]

re-reading up to page 10 just makes me feel stronger about jan just on a gameplay level, but i was already thinking he was a villager off the claim and the reasons i've mentioned (which some people said were wifom)

and i guess i don't like wisdom's reads from early, but the reason i didn't wanna re-read is cuz wisdom is already a pretty complex villa thinker in that it's really hard to follow their train of thought and also their train of thought isn't conventionally villagery. which is why i didn't wanna even read their posts, lol

[insomnia]

I won't be around at all after these next few posts and vote. If you think I'm the best vote uh, good luck? Think that's hard to be the case on multiple fronts but I cannot stop you!

Still feel pretty ok with where I've been at. Think I've got a prettttty good swath of the game with reads. Doubt they are all accurate but I'm comfy with the reads and how I got there.

Keep circling back to Rask as my best wolf. Something about calling my reads too consensus while they are getting poo poo'd elsewhere for being too out there just makes me think it was shading and finding a reason to do so that sounds reasonable but hadn't actually been reading my posts or thinking about my reads. I don't think anyone else would call the reads consensus!

Still don't find Jan villagery. Don't see why others do and the only thing I get told when asked is "vibes" which, fair it's day 1, but I counter with "I get vibes that say opposite".

someone remind me if there exists a wolf tell of being a magnet to 3Ps / sniffing them out

[Dolby]

A more detailed response will have to come hours from now bc I am kind of considering if I was wrong on Ender w right now tbh and I have liked his day three so far. And I'm also at work and cannot go fully into a level of detail deserving of the question for a long time. With that said, I felt when reading through his D1 that I didn't like his direction at all or how he started generating reads, I still feel like at SOD1 he just took one thing and used to generate his world view which I don't really associate with town Ender at all.

I'm worried that I've been getting a false positive from D2 bc he seemed to be floundering, but it could have been bc he just didn't have enough time to fully eval from the thread. I actually really dislike how he voted Rask and just never moved. Yes he was exploring other places as well throughout the day but that was unfortunately never elaborated on in a manner that was satisfactory to me (I still like, even in the one bigger post he has on them, feel his cases on sunbae/Bennen), but he dismissed the slot in entirity when I thought that there were moments from Rask that looked uninformed and that he had a town thought process (which we now know was real), and I think that Ender would be able to find Rask as not mafia in that situation. Heck, he called him in his maf play, which I disagree with (rask did have sus posts but I feel that he had posts where he actually had a visible solving process). In fact I think the only really towny thing that he has on D2 (which I am giving him a good bit of cred for) is him finding Monty as town on D2 and having a good rationale for it.

I like a lot of what he's put out today, live reacting with me and Wisdom. I think the only thing I dislike from him today funnily enough is him dismissing Monty as a neut (rather than neut or town) to hard in a post. I really need him to come back with something on ladd, or something that convinces me on benneh and sunbae bc tbh I just view his susses on benneh and sunbae as kinda weak and like, I look at what he says about them and I'm like "yeah they can do that and still are town"

[insomnia]

alright, stopped at around the time where mont came back and i want to read his EoD tomorrow cuz i heard it was villagery

honestly im just hoping we're in an ideal world where the team is sunbae / maple / wisdom / +1

and i want it to be ladd but something (not a soft) just stops me from making the call even though objectively i think it's correct

@Sunbae arctic pointed this out but idt i saw you answering it

this is not rational nor charitable but sunbae's "we should look at people who nobody is talking about" thing floating stett in the same group as wisdom/syn kinda pings me. like those are different flavors of not being discussed - in stett's case it's because they are universally townread and independently obvious town and in the cases of the other two it's because they haven't posted enough or nobody really knows. and i think a villa might be a bit more discerning in the targets of "who is nobody talking about" than dropping these three names and saying they all had "vague town vibes" when that isn't really the case. they did the same thing with grr too. idk. it might not even be wolfy because there's the argument that a wolf might be more in tune with the consensus and what they can push. but still feels like a kinda strange angle for a villager to go for

[Sunbae]

@Dolby

it seems like you're pretty familiar with ender's meta. do you actually think he could fake all of the things he's done this game as a wolf? it was my impression that whenever he was wolf in my games, it was simply a PoE process thing where i'd open his iso and come out with a true null or i'd have to make a ton of mental gymnastics to interpret micro moments as villagery, not even at a macro level

i would kinda like more insight there cuz idk if im just tripping here for thinking he's just a villa

benneh can prob answer too cuz he's played with him iirc


sunbae, i've only started re-reading D1 but isoing is hell on this site. idt i've done a single iso, most of my reads are just reading the whole thread and im lazy. i guess us not vibing in real time and you having a waller-y type of posting style is making me not appreciate the finer details, but then again i had no issue villa reading bop so i guess i just haven't seen something that would move you out of PoE for me. i'll likely get to reading you / benneh once we flip in maple / wisdom or some other people, ergo my opinion should only matter once we have some chance to kill / save you

This is a quick drive by (i know i have other people to respond to who answered questions for me from last night I just haven't gotten the chance to fully sit down and won't til overnight).

I understand this and maybe it's the lack of in-thread time together (same with me/ender!) but here's my issue with your idea of backburning it til after maple/wisdom (despite understanding isoing is really hard here and ive done way less than normal myself and instead read thread as whole sections):

One of my worlds I'm throwing around in my head is specifically you/gemma/benneh because I can piece together how everything went down with that team. In this world, eod1 Ladd is voting Gemma, you shade Ladd. You defend Gemma by pushing Knights for wanting to be alive more. Syn and Benneh aren't around and two of the main wagons are Gemma/Syn. You mention that you haven't read Syn but vote there and Gemma votes there once Knights basically forces her off. You tie me/benneh together some but make sure to shade me more than Benneh. When that receives brushback from Ladd and someone else about me being more villagery than benneh, you reiterate that Benneh at least had something specifically villagery with the thing with getting focused on a small thing from (forgetting exactly who atm, its a drive by sorry). And this kind of carries through day 2 where Bop mentions Gemma fell off the "tonal cliff" or something (said about knights too but idk, birthday seems a good reason) and then the game gets bogged down in claims/counters. And obviously a few people have been telling me to keep an eye on Benneh (dya did at least, i think newcomb did too). So even though I still want to villa read benneh I'm trying to keep thigns in mind.

Now I'm not saying this is MY TEAM OMG FOLLOW ME EVERYONE I'm just saying it's one I've been exploring and thinking about and I think I can see how this team is all tied together, what was going on, why, and how it all played out if so.

So my concern of like "well lets just deal with maple/wisdom and then worry about it" is like, in the cases I'm right here at that point it'd be too late for me you know? And I get it, it's a little weird for me to start being suspicious of you when you have a wolf vote and I don't! And I'm not even saying it's my best wolf read! It's just if I feel my villa reads of Dya/Knights/Grr/Jan are right and my reread read of Ladd villa is right, then I need to see where I think the wolves are.

And like, ok so I know Bop was really locked in Wisom and I think we're all like staring at Maple and I understand that those two are almost certainly getting resolved soon, but if they are wolves then I think we're in the drivers seat and fine and me exploring other options wont matter much while if they are villagers then this part is really important you know?

Now can I be wrong on Ladd? Certainly! Another world I'm exploring is specifically Ladd/Maple/X (i mentioned my gut ping about Ladds comment about Maple day 1). In this world wolves were likely cruising eod1 and then got blindsided by a late Syn wagon. I'd imagine you, gemma, and knights are lock town in this world which, hype.

I also know either Bop or Arctic or Stett mentioned keeping an eye on the potential that we just wagoned a ton of wolves day 1 and they bussed (this included Knights so even if I personally have Knights as a very likely villager who id be floored if wolf, I'm still viewing that as well just to be thorough).

Now, I definitely have a blind spot with Dolby/Vanta but I've gotten the vibe Dolby's posts today are pretty villagery? I think someone disagreed in my catchup but I'll need to check that later. So exploring there is good too to shore up that read.

So yeah that's just the general where my heads at

[Sunbae]

Theres not really much to answer about that. Grabbed three people I had no personal thoughts on and asked people for opinions. Anything more than that is the same thing as Stetts and Enders "idk, i think youre performative" to which all I can reply is "ok" but that sounds dismissive so I say nothing instead

[insomnia]

i've read all of your post, but your theory doesn't apply because i was voting gemma and we had a pretty rough fight in thread. i doubt i would be that tilted about it although i can put on that act, not sure if gemma would be that type of wolf though

but i was voting gemma for a lot of the time and didn't even swap to knights. it'd be pretty silly of me cuz fypov all i've done d1 was to bus my teammates without trying to wagon villas in between and not only do i not think normal wolves do that, for me specifically it'd have to mean swapping my entire playstyle. i disagree with benneh because i would probably do a half-assed bus specifically for that point, but i still wouldn't shade 2/4 of my teammates all of d1

[Sunbae]

i've read all of your post, but your theory doesn't apply because i was voting gemma and we had a pretty rough fight in thread. i doubt i would be that tilted about it although i can put on that act, not sure if gemma would be that type of wolf though

but i was voting gemma for a lot of the time and didn't even swap to knights. it'd be pretty silly of me cuz fypov all i've done d1 was to bus my teammates without trying to wagon villas in between and not only do i not think normal wolves do that, for me specifically it'd have to mean swapping my entire playstyle. i disagree with benneh because i would probably do a half-assed bus specifically for that point, but i still wouldn't shade 2/4 of my teammates all of d1

Ok, I will go back later and reread the earlier part of day 1 again. That would be a really exciting thing for me to lock in

Does me explaining all this help you get into my head and see things from my pov at least? I feel like I'm trying very hard to be transparent and helpful so others can get a better read on me on this game day.

[insomnia]

Theres not really much to answer about that. Grabbed three people I had no personal thoughts on and asked people for opinions. Anything more than that is the same thing as Stetts and Enders "idk, i think youre performative" to which all I can reply is "ok" but that sounds dismissive so I say nothing instead

you didn't have thoughts on stett? the top poster?

your other 2 guesses are understandable, which is why fitting stett there doesn't help

i guess i don't like the fact that, fmpov, the wolves weren't there for EoD and you dip right before you ask about syn / wisdom in what could be easily interpreted as a distancing attempt and then you aren't there when the syn suspicion goes down. coincidences, can be hell, huh

did you just think stett's posts could be posted by any alignment, or?

[Sunbae]

you didn't have thoughts on stett? the top poster?

your other 2 guesses are understandable, which is why fitting stett there doesn't help

i guess i don't like the fact that, fmpov, the wolves weren't there for EoD and you dip right before you ask about syn / wisdom in what could be easily interpreted as a distancing attempt and then you aren't there when the syn suspicion goes down. coincidences, can be hell, huh

did you just think stett's posts could be posted by any alignment, or?

yes, i have zero experience with stett that im aware of and had no opinion on stetts alignment there
then people told me obvious villager, at one point i asked for confirmation that people were sure sure, they gave it, and i locked it in

[insomnia]

Ok, I will go back later and reread the earlier part of day 1 again. That would be a really exciting thing for me to lock in

Does me explaining all this help you get into my head and see things from my pov at least? I feel like I'm trying very hard to be transparent and helpful so others can get a better read on me on this game day.

i mean i get it, but it doesn't help cuz i feel like you haven't read if your guess was that team

your alternate world is actually the one i was exploring d2 a big part of the time and i thought ladd was put in a really rough spot of not knowing whether to bus or defend so he was just like "meh i dont think he is villa but i dont hard push him either". off the top of my head that EoD just doesn't read like one where wolves did anything

[Sunbae]

i mean i get it, but it doesn't help cuz i feel like you haven't read if your guess was that team

your alternate world is actually the one i was exploring d2 a big part of the time and i thought ladd was put in a really rough spot of not knowing whether to bus or defend so he was just like "meh i dont think he is villa but i dont hard push him either". off the top of my head that EoD just doesn't read like one where wolves did anything

What if you remember I mostly just reread eods and major events and recall very little from early d1 that doesnt specifically involve me!!!!

Noted on second paragraph. Do you think my longer post on Ladd is just flawed then? It's possible of course!