Tarot Mafia

[Gemma]

I'm revoking masons with Monty btw

I don't think my vote ever moves off of Wisdom today tbh

when were u ever masons with monty???

[Dolby]

when were u ever masons with monty???

yesterday, though I said it and offered it to him mainly because I felt it would help him become more in tune with the thread and help me read with him.

[Montmorency]

TALLY #1079

Gemma 4 (Ladd, sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, insomnia)
Syn 4 (Didistetter, ColonelLubriderm, Newcomb, dyachei)
Theknightsofneeee 3 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov, Gemma)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
Sunbae 1 (Jan)
sheepsaysmeep 1 (Syn)
Raskolnikov 1 (grr)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)

TALLY #1170

Raskolnikov 4 (grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan, Montmorency)
Theknightsofneeee 4 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov, Gemma, Didistetter)
Gemma 4 (Ladd, sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, insomnia)
Syn 2 (Newcomb, dyachei)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
sheepsaysmeep 1 (Syn)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)

TALLY #1196

Syn 5 ( Newcomb, Gemma, Insomnia, Theknightsofneeee, Didistetter)
Raskolnikov 4 (grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan, Maple)
Gemma 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, insomnia)
sheepsaysmeep 3 (Syn, dyachei, Ladd)
Theknightsofneeee 2 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)

TALLY FINAL

Syn 7 ( Newcomb, Gemma, Insomnia, Theknightsofneeee, Didistetter, Arctic, Maple)
Gemma 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, Jan)
sheepsaysmeep 3 (Syn, dyachei, Ladd)
Raskolnikov 2 (grr, ColonelLubriderm )
Theknightsofneeee 2 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)



I don't think there was more than 1 mafia operating EOD 1. Most of the dead players were AFK or lurking, including syn and neb, as well as Sunbae, Ender, Vanta, cobalt, and grr. From that presumption, Gemma's vote pattern looks very good for her - she kept the syn wagon alive at a key moment - although a m-Wisdom flip would lock her town for good. Also following from the presumption (and more so with ladd's town flip), knights' syn vote is not +EV, as he would have had no good options, although he reacted very quickly on the bus if scum. At any rate, I don't have any reason to POE him at this time.



My POE for today would have to be

sunbae
dolby
wisdom

although I can't offer a sound reason to go above Wisdom atm. m-Wisdom clears Gemma and probably Ender at this point, so it's a very desirable hit, if a hit. Vanta, like, ladd just asked me why he and ender would coordinate in chat to ask knights the same question simultaneously. He was right after all. So, the question goes, why would vanta and wisdom coordinate to vote ladd at the literal last minute when it was already 5-4 and Wisdom wasn't self-prezzing? Why not just one, or both a couple hours apart? Teams have certainly casually outed themselves before, but maybe we need a little more feedback before we decide it's what happened.

I'm revoking masons with Monty btw

I don't think my vote ever moves off of Wisdom today tbh

luhmao

Dolby, I strongly disliked the pattern of cycling through wagons and reevaluating all of them. It did feel like a shell game designed to swamp a very important town PR. If Wisdom is indeed the scum of three, it's hard to credit you for it now. Other than that, cobalt had a rather poor D1. He only posted the first half of D1, but almost all of it is fluff directed at people who flipped or locked in the first round (Newcomb, stetter, sheep, etc.). I'm not sure what the best thing to do for you would be (but it's not wall-posting more ISOs).

offered it to him mainly because I felt it would help him become more in tune with the thread and help me read with him.

So you were trying to pocket me?

[Sunbae]

i doubt i am dying and if so my plan was to leave jan my legacy (tho I realize he will probably die tonight lol but at least we will have a fun chat)

my associative stop at "i'd kill knights after wisdom" atm

my legacy is this

dont kill until lylo - should be pure

ladd
insomnia
grr
gemma
jan
dya
dolby


leaning villa
ender - again plz make them claim tho. always a villager if knights w
vanta - should be v if wisdom w

PoE
monti - I see the villagery posting but also at some point u gotta punish people for posting dumb arguments and he has been pushing some truly nonsensical things
benneh
sunbae
maple

wolves

knights
wisdom



but idrc about people following my legacy, you guis can do what you want after I die. Those are simply my reads

Ladd legacy for me

[Sunbae]

Me: cases ladd town, votes benneh
Thread: OVER IN NARNIA OVER THERE WHO KNOWS WHAT HES DOING

[Sunbae]

At some point I'm going to have to figure out what wins out between my positive feelings of Knights end of day one and my negative feelings of rereading the thread and seeing Kngihts constantly lumping me in with benneh yet shading me and boosting benneh whenever he gets the chance

[Sunbae]

i agree, but i think i can explain it, ymmv. i think it was cause it was an odd segue onto a topic that was somewhat ... irrelevant anyway? like the idea that it was something of inherent value that sheep/knights didn't pick up on and point out is the wolfy part to me, because why did they have to think that was the case? what value or interest is gleaned from either of those players just taking stett's post as off the cuff. it seemed like a bunch of casual shade thrown onto ppl for making gut reads/leans which is the wolfy part to me

my only guess was the timing of stett's post could have made wisdom think this, but reading it in 'real-time' that wasn't something that occurred to me cause it was a pretty ~whatever post beyond being tonally towny and i didnt think much of anyone else reading into that post either

Initial thought is this is way too defend-y for such a little comment from cobalt to be on a teammate. Like I feel it's more inclined to try and pocket wisdom than to push Cobalt off of a read or anything. I'm actually a bit confused why it got this response in the first place. Making a mental note. I suppose if Wisdom is wolf arsonist or w/e and the plan is to defend out of the gate maybe but it sounds sketchy to me.

[theknightsofneeee]

At some point I'm going to have to figure out what wins out between my positive feelings of Knights end of day one and my negative feelings of rereading the thread and seeing Kngihts constantly lumping me in with benneh yet shading me and boosting benneh whenever he gets the chance

hey i specifically cleared you EOD 3 if it makes you feel better :)

[theknightsofneeee]

i'd say my bad about my ladd read, but honestly it was both my bad and his bad. >.<



nice shot on benneh dya, i was 100% gonna push him for his very tentative vote on ladd at the EOD only when it was likely to push him over.

blame vanta much less for their vote because they showed hesitancy to voting with me and picked a different wagon first.

glad i got there on jan, but i'm surprised that @Maple is alive ? did he give reasoning for not killing you?

my initial thought is that maybe jan got roleblocked and couldn't execute maple? (afaik thats how it works in TOS, if the jailer gets roleblocked they can't execute)



gonna read benneh for spew, probably a fairly good amount there, gonna read specifically for his reads on wisdom/maple/vanta/monty/enderwiggen as those are my most unsure atm

[Sunbae]

i mean, i was actively encouraging him to go on...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

sick lost mafia goon soft, ty [ glow] tags

oh thats a cute post cause now i have to wonder if people knew you were a wolf day 1 argh

[theknightsofneeee]

sunbae pushing benneh yesterday when benneh wasn't really on my radar at all is also probably extra clearing for him but I already had him as villa

but just in case anyone else didn't have him cleared yet, he's >> rand villager



sunbae could have been potentially distancing from benneh in a world where wisdom/maple/ladd are all villagers and sunbae knew the elim wouldn't really be close to hitting a wolf, and trying to set up for late game, but a) i don't believe that is the world and b) I think benneh felt way more willing to give sunbae shallow reads that don't feel like wolf bro's trying to make fleshed out reads on each other.

[Gemma]

i'd say my bad about my ladd read, but honestly it was both my bad and his bad. >.<

[theknightsofneeee]

he wolf read me for like 2.5 out of 3 days

and 90% of the read was 'knights is lacking'



i'm a strong man but i'm not strong enough to wolf read that lol

[Sunbae]

Bennehs day 1 posts about alive players. I'm making no commentary on them yet

About Wisdom:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

q: do you think wisdom was actually interested in why bob/knights/sheep (im forgetting who exactly it was now) didn't question whether that was a pre-written post?

that does not seem like something she would actually care about in that spot and i disliked the way it was framed because it came across as shade. so even if i accept maybe she just had a different thought/approach to the stett post the framing thereafter felt ruff to me

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

unfortunately i kinda like wisdoms other posts since then and i dont really care to go down this road a ton but c'est la vie and all since u brought it up

okie dokie -- i still think that was phrased wolfily but w/e

i feel extremly called out by this spoiler

also i did not tunnel you last game, cmon. i had a bad read but i did not act as if you were the only and obvoius scum at any point. hally just played well and avoided suspicion until i didnt have other areas to visit (in my mind)

About Grrr

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

i liked his tone around the newcomb vote and his logic there but also that he isn't tunneling it, just stating it as a matter of fact. i liked his intro. he's got more of a dgaf confidence to him than stiltedness iyam.

i feel like his early posting here would be more subdued or more strategic as a wolf given FTR/Turbo meta vis a vis this game's list and the dayphase length but it feels like he's just leting things fly here

>IH isn't really a strategic wolf imo so i just disagree on the reasoning given and thats why i cant really buy the explanation

this is doing a lot of heavy lifting for your logic on the IH read given the post is less about his strategy and more about his inability to push on a player new to him like newcomb with any amount of sincerity. newcomb isn't katze (or insom or ladd) otherwise i probably wouldn't have made that read, but the dynamic there is and was decently out of his wolf range, particularly early d1 before any lines were drawn in the sand

About Ender

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

yesssssssssssss, that page 6 post pinged me too

i was too lazy to do the math on what page 6 would be since i'm on 40 or 35 or 62 posts per page or whatever, but my estimate was he was sussing inso earlier for his like, ~4 intro posts that were pretty ~whatever?

(thats jumping on my Ender suspicion)

vote: enderwiggin

@Jan its nothing mega deep, just these posts in particular pinged me

emphasizing the vote on you was a joke twice/clarifying his intent just pings me a bit

the post about insom pings me for the 'kinda sus early' 'but p6 insom hits diff' when early on was mostly intro posts and it feels like somewhat of an exaggeration for something i viewed as either null or just irrelevant from insom (but ender being around to clarify which posts early he sus'd would help tbf)

the post about newcomb is just super awkward. its mostly fluff about his willingness to vote newcomb as a wolf in a game from a year ago segueing into 'why are you reading him?' with clarification that he doesnt even have a read on newcomb

i cant really explain the read beyond that. i admit its kinda meh but i don't really have much else to work on rn. his other posts in the flurry were ~fine i agree but for my money he's the wolfiest of the interesting/non-cop-out yeets on the table we're likely heading to (sheep/knights) that i think have more villa equity

[theknightsofneeee]

ladds read in knights is real bad imo and feels like widening the POE, esp since im who he’s pairing knights with

idk if i have the balls to do it and be wrong tho cause then im eating a vig shot in the face (or a launch)

i read this as super villagery at EOD especially when i was still in the middle of my crusade on ladd and it almost word for word described my read on ladd/why i was pushing him

but in retrospect it should have been kinda obvious that he was using me to springboard a vote/elim on ladd

bleh

[Montmorency]

my initial thought is that maybe jan got roleblocked and couldn't execute maple? (afaik thats how it works in TOS, if the jailer gets roleblocked they can't execute)

According to the claim, Maple gifted Jan a 1x doc, Jan TRed Maple after discussion, Jan protected dya. It's not verifiable - maybe Mafia have only 1 kp left and rationally used it against the JK with KP - but a hit on both dya and Jan with dya getting protected with Maple's gift is also very plausible. Maybe Maple has just been running a fabulous gambit, but he's near-clear.

[theknightsofneeee]

i agree, but i think i can explain it, ymmv. i think it was cause it was an odd segue onto a topic that was somewhat ... irrelevant anyway? like the idea that it was something of inherent value that sheep/knights didn't pick up on and point out is the wolfy part to me, because why did they have to think that was the case? what value or interest is gleaned from either of those players just taking stett's post as off the cuff. it seemed like a bunch of casual shade thrown onto ppl for making gut reads/leans which is the wolfy part to me

my only guess was the timing of stett's post could have made wisdom think this, but reading it in 'real-time' that wasn't something that occurred to me cause it was a pretty ~whatever post beyond being tonally towny and i didnt think much of anyone else reading into that post either

According to the claim, Maple gifted Jan a 1x doc, Jan TRed Maple after discussion, Jan protected dya. It's not verifiable - maybe Mafia have only 1 kp left and rationally used it against the JK with KP - but a hit on both dya and Jan with dya getting protected with Maple's gift is also very plausible. Maybe Maple has just been running a fabulous gambit, but he's near-clear.

another relatively plausible world is

maple is wolf kp (there were multiple kills n2 and arctic wasn't able to kill maple n2)

n3 jan jailkeeps maple (this roleblocks and protects maple, but allows jan the ability to talk to maple at night, and decide to execute before SOD)

during n3 no wolf kp is shown except a kill on jan, and wolves roleblock jan to prevent him from executing maple (since he's wolf kp)



reads as super plausible to me

also maple being able to give items out to jan either during the day or at the start of the night phase feels super weird/counter intuitive to me, i would have to double check with maple's earlier claims and see if that is something that is consistent from the start of his claim or not, because that just feels fishy mechanically that he was able to prove himself to jan before he was jailed.

[Wisdom]

Nice one Dya! I hadn't even read EoD yet except for the flip so didn't know Ben was outted. Should have time after work to do some digging.

[Maple]

i'd say my bad about my ladd read, but honestly it was both my bad and his bad. >.<



nice shot on benneh dya, i was 100% gonna push him for his very tentative vote on ladd at the EOD only when it was likely to push him over.

blame vanta much less for their vote because they showed hesitancy to voting with me and picked a different wagon first.

glad i got there on jan, but i'm surprised that @Maple is alive ? did he give reasoning for not killing you?

my initial thought is that maybe jan got roleblocked and couldn't execute maple? (afaik thats how it works in TOS, if the jailer gets roleblocked they can't execute)



gonna read benneh for spew, probably a fairly good amount there, gonna read specifically for his reads on wisdom/maple/vanta/monty/enderwiggen as those are my most unsure atm

jan and i were ride or die after some discussion and analysis. Also, with ladd dying and it being pretty blatantly obvious that ben was more or less outed and in the worst case (wolves getting multiple kills + village having no KP left) our only shot at winning was attempting to get a good day today.

Fortunately, wolves only got 1 kill off and dya had another kill so it didn't go as bad as we feared.

Now, on a *mechanical* level, I should be treated as clear from now on. I hope it goes without saying how fuckin dumb it'd be for people to go for me after all that, especially given how good my PR evidently is and the fact that I am now a priority for the wolves - we got a doctor out of it, who knows what other goodies I can give out? Not to mention how s p e w e d clear I am here. If you think I'm a wolf at this point, you just gotta take the L and blame Jan in post.

As far as dolby goes, seemed paired with ben + the handling of wisdom + me + ladd yesterday and ending on ladd (with both wisdom's w equity and the fact that ladd was just straight up the worst kill of the three) + the blatant wolfsiding.

When compared to sunbae and insom, who aren't like *that* villagery in the grand scheme of things, the issue is that there are *several* slots that are varying degrees of just mindfuckingly wolfy or deranged in this game. We can debate the specifics later, and I *am* down to start with a lower effort wagon, but it was more or less ben>dolby>wisdom>knights=vanta=mont

w/ a side of ender

and the potential of there being perhaps 1 deeper wolf in the clears (most likely between sunbae or insom, but perhaps grr but again there's a gap between these peeps and the wolf reads)

[Maple]

I'll be fishing for a vigi shot tonight. Given the currently level of KP in a game of this size, i'm pretty certain that there's a vigi shot *somewhere* in my deck.

[Dolby]

Yeah Ender is just town imo. Benneh used multiple people's sus on Ender as a way to try to direct greater sus towards him, and I've just feeling the villa energy from him since

Also irregardless of mech Maple just looks good from how Benneh treated her. I also do believe that Jan got the card and the card used used on Dya

kinda thinking that I was wrong to dismiss what ladd was saying about knights yesterday.

but w/e today is wisdom day

[Dolby]

@Maple our slots have pretty much agreed on exactly nothing this game but I would appreciate if you heard me out, at least for one day. i am thinking you are town now and the best thing we can do is just kill wisdom. After that happens, if Wisdom flips red I should be able to get myself clear. I do kinda have marginal concerns about you still tbh (like you just not voting yesterday but I do get the sense that you weren't all there on ladd v at that point in time) but frankly it's w/e since I believe you gave Jan the card.

[Maple]

I assumed that everyone was going to fall in line and wisdom would *just go over* yesterday. I was AFK for eod, so I wasn't there for the shenanigans.

And in any case, if you *are* a villager, I am reading your posts and considering our options. It seems pretty possible that we go Wisdom today, but it would be irresponsible for any of us to lock into that now. There's definitely the possibility that we end up somewhere else in the PoE today.

[Dolby]

@theknightsofneeee

i just don't view this as the case tbh (Maple being jailed wolf kp) and I can easily see Jan just not exeing Maple based off the flip. i was already feeling before the flip when Jan announced he was jailing maple that he probably wouldn't exe maple if he got a card tbh, but uh, Benneh just looks pretty unteammed with Maple, and if he is with Maple, Maple isn't KP. Which suggests either someone else got a doc off, maf vig is even night, or maple's doc card was real and was given to Jan.

Like look at this, I know that Benneh shifted his vote around to wisdom and ladd, but he kept on pushing this pretty consistently from mid-d2 onward. i think he probably ends up on Maple EOD2 if Rask doesn't get outted, and is pretty ungenerous to that slot. There's tons of other posts like this but I don't feel like really beating it in when I think the thread is going to get there anyway.

i think maple looks worse but i think its a very good chance they're w/w

ladd's pushes this game are not great but maple is like, very likely just wolf kp

[Vanta Black]

god you have brightened my day

i just want to burn vanta and knights now

Hey now.

[Vanta Black]

...
idk if i have the balls to do it and be wrong tho cause then im eating a vig shot in the face (or a launch)

Prophetic. Or foreshadowing.

[Vanta Black]

...

I don't think my vote ever moves off of Wisdom today tbh

Incllined to vote there myself.

But if neeee hops on then I don't knooooooow

[Wisdom]

Vote: ladd


siw trusting dya here

pasta gods give me strength

Oh, this is the outing post?
I read it before but I guess I'm missing some context.

If Benneh decided to sacrifice himself to make sure both Ladd and myself get yeeted is probably proof that an arsonist actually exists and will ignite to a victory.

What's the numbers now? 12 players, 2-3 wolves?

Let's run that, say 3 wolves

9v/3w
I get misyeeted
8v/3w
Ignition kills 2 + factional
5v/3w

Okay that's not an auto win but it's getting the team to f3 with 3 wolves.
Yeah that's not looking good for us.

Could be two wolves left tho. Could be no arsonist. Not sure why Benneh would make a move like that in that case.

[Vanta Black]

Should probably work on developing some reads instead of whatever it is I've been doing.

[Wisdom]

I'm not gonna bother with Dolby's tunnel. He's likely town and won't look elsewhere before I'm flipped.