I like the analysis although I think you mark off too many people as townie for convenience sake. There are several who I think are capable--even if they showed scummy behavior in the other games you analyzed--of appearing townie up to this point. I'm also very familiar with the "I have it all figured out" epiphany (and have a tradition of pm'ing GH my later-revealed-to-be-ridiculous suspicions ), and it can often blind you to the truth.

I wouldn't put reenk in the guilty pile. He could be mafia for sure, but he always plays the game his own way as town or as mafia. Setting himself up as "defender of beefy" fits right in. I don't object to his lynch but it's something to keep in mind.

Tevash was someone I was going to take a look at come daytime.

Ignoramus always lurks and has been WoG'd countless times.

Oh, and shlin is someone I used to keep around to get lynched in the endgame when I was mafia

I'm pretty optimistic for this game, we have a huge number of lynch rounds if the mafia are indeed at one kill. Although something tells me none of the "suspects" will be killed anytime soon.