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Thread: Iranian Elections

  1. #1
    Enlightened Despot Member Vladimir's Avatar
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    Default Iranian Elections

    With all the fervor over European elections is anyone paying attention to Iran? BBCA is trying to sell their coverage of it by basically saying Ahminedejad's rival is the Persian Obama. A quick search revealed http://www.ndi.org/iran_election_bulletin which seems to have good coverage of the elections. Check out the voting Nazgoul.

    So, is anyone following these elections?

    Edit: I love when the lower classes say "O'bomber." Makes him sound like an Irish terrorist.

    But no, I'm generally curious. Please don't take offense.
    Last edited by Vladimir; 06-10-2009 at 13:29. Reason: "Does is anyone?" Must proofread better.


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  2. #2
    Member Member Hax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    So, does is anyone following these elections?
    Yes! Mir Hussain Moussavi for president!
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  3. #3
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Hax View Post
    Yes! Mir Hussain Moussavi for president!
    agreed!
    i only learned about him through your facebook page, and seems like a worthy candidate.
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  4. #4
    Member Member Hax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Well, I think the way for Iran to "democratize" is a long one, but having a pro-reform president who is also interested in dialogue with the US will have a positive influence on Iran and can influence the entire regio in a positive way. The combination Obama - Mousavi could be very good. Hell, even Ahmadinejad sent his congratulations to Obama when he was elected.

    There are some major points in Iran which need to be changed as soon as possible, in my opinion:

    - The Freedom of Press and Information
    - The rights and equality of women

    Then there are some long-term problems:

    - The rights and equality of homosexuals, which I don't see achievable within 50 years.

    - The (temporary) abolishment of the death penalty, save for the worst crimes. I'd prefer abolishment altogether.
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  5. #5
    Banned Kadagar_AV's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    ANY country that has the death sentence is = barbaric.

    Don't get me wrong, some people do deserve death... it's just that it is so extremly hard to change a death sentence once passed.

    Better a lifetime in prison, IMHO.

  6. #6
    TexMec Senior Member Louis VI the Fat's Avatar
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    Talking Re : Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir View Post
    Check out the voting Nazgoul.
    That's terrible! But I can't help giggling like a baby over it. It's so apt. ~:laugh-smilie:
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  7. #7
    Master of Few Words Senior Member KukriKhan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Ahmadinejad plays the Godwin.

    "No one has the right to insult the president, and they did it. And this is a crime. The person who insulted the president should be punished, and the punishment is jail," he told supporters outside Tehran's Sharif University.

    "Such insults and accusations against the government are a return to Hitler's methods, to repeat lies and accusations ... until everyone believes those lies," Ahmadinejad said.
    He has never given up his radical student hey-days, rhetorically. He still shouts and pouts like a first-year PoliSci student.
    Be well. Do good. Keep in touch.

  8. #8
    Enlightened Despot Member Vladimir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by article
    Mousavi says Ahmadinejad has isolated Iran with his vitriolic attacks on the United States, his combative line on Iran's nuclear policy and his questioning of the Holocaust.
    Interesting. I thought this policy was supported by his grand robeness (as opposed to his hatness) as evidenced by
    The relatively unknown Ahmadinejad surprised everyone with his victory four years ago, and he has enjoyed the support of Khamenei throughout his presidency.
    How much influence does the president of Iran have? Could the country transform from a state controlled by religion to a state who utilizes religious methods? Could the president of Iran go from the anti-bush to a more traditional realpolitik opponent?

    Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part; Iran transforming to a more traditional adversary. After all, it's only been ~30 years. I'm so excited!

    Quote Originally Posted by article
    He advocates easing nuclear tensions, while rejecting demands that Tehran halt nuclear work which the West fears could be used to make bombs.
    OK. I can understand this and would probably do so myself. This new guy needs to get elected. I don't mind so much if they have the ability as long as they lack the will. The current nutjob is ready and willing.

    Quote Originally Posted by article
    Another group said on Wednesday that Rafsanjani would be responsible if the tension escalated into violence.

    The ILNA news agency said cars decked out in Mousavi's green campaign colors were attacked in central Tehran on Wednesday, but gave no details of the damage.
    This sounds like modern Venezuela. Also very Godwin-esque.

    I know Reuters has grown a few warts on its nose recently but the picture they paint makes me hopeful.


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  9. #9
    Hope guides me Senior Member Hosakawa Tito's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    All politics is local.

    Like most other people, Iranians will vote with their pocketbook.

    Broken promises, hard economic times and the old "familiarity breeds contempt" syndrome that most politicians eventually have to deal with seems to be working against Ahmadinejad, not to mention his confrontational style.
    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." *Jim Elliot*

  10. #10
    Poll Smoker Senior Member CountArach's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Good run down of the election here. I didn't realise Another-Dinner-Jacket was under pressure from his side of politics as well.
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    Member Member Mumu Champion Prodigal's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Watched a liveleak debate from Iranian tv yesterday, what was worrying was that it was unclear as to whether the candidate in the debate was more right wing than Ahmadinejad.

    At one point he seemed to be saying that the British sailors should have been executed, & letting them go was a terrible policy mistake. I thought that Ahmadinejad was on the far right already.

  12. #12
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Sounds like good old fashioned tub thumping after the event to gain votes from the masses.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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    Relentless Bughunter Senior Member FactionHeir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    According to news of the count at 72%, Ahmadinejad leads with 65.7% over Moussavi's 31.4%.
    As is usual, the challenger claims the count has been manipulated.
    Last edited by FactionHeir; 06-13-2009 at 05:16.
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    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    In case you were wondering:



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    Corporate Hippie Member rasoforos's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    I am not surprised.

    Where the liberal Iranian administration failed (to initiate talks with the west), Ahmadinejad succeeded. He the 'child' of decisions made by western administrations.
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    Awaiting the Rapture Member rotorgun's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Lemur View Post
    In case you were wondering:


    Nice chart Lemur. The color arrangements put me in mind of something Byzantine during the late Roman Empire, with the Green and Blue Parties vying for political control....and then the Emperor (read Supreme Leader) steps in. Alas, another bloody ending. (sigh)
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    Member Member Hax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    A shame, I really hoped Mousavi would win.

    Not all votes are counted yet, but it's looking pretty grim.
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    (Insert innuendo here) Member Balloon Bomber Champion DemonArchangel's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    The elections were certainly rigged.
    Quote Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat View Post
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  19. #19
    Poll Smoker Senior Member CountArach's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by DemonArchangel View Post
    The elections were certainly rigged.
    Sauce?
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    (Insert innuendo here) Member Balloon Bomber Champion DemonArchangel's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.
    Last edited by DemonArchangel; 06-13-2009 at 15:39.
    Quote Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat View Post
    China is not a world power. China is the world, and it's surrounded by a ring of tiny and short-lived civilisations like the Americas, Europeans, Mongols, Moghuls, Indians, Franks, Romans, Japanese, Koreans.

  21. #21
    Master of Few Words Senior Member KukriKhan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by CountArach View Post
    Sauce?
    Gravy. :)
    There are rumblings in the Iranian expat community here, that their votes were not, and won't be, counted. This is anecdotal from my friend/neighbor, 20 years here from Tehran.
    Be well. Do good. Keep in touch.

  22. #22
    Relentless Bughunter Senior Member FactionHeir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by DemonArchangel View Post
    I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.
    So how did the reformist before Ahmedinejad get elected please?
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  23. #23
    Member Member Alexander the Pretty Good's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    What's the deal with the internet and text-messaging outages and the shenanigans with the reform campaign websites being taken down?

  24. #24
    ............... Member Scurvy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

    Having said that, it seems the result was unexpected, partly in Ahmadinejad winning, but the extent and areas he won through. Opposition also claim the state was against them in terms of coverage and campaign marches, which has more credibility imo. It will be interesting to see what happens.

    Quote Originally Posted by DemonArchangel
    I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.
    Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

    It is suspicious that opposition election moniters were not allowed to function. Was there any international monitering?
    Last edited by Scurvy; 06-13-2009 at 16:33.

  25. #25
    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Scurvy View Post
    I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality
    Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



    And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

    CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

    To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

    One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

    How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

    -edit-

    And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.
    Last edited by Lemur; 06-13-2009 at 17:58.

  26. #26
    The Usual Member Ice's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Lemur View Post
    Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



    And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

    CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

    To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

    One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

    How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

    -edit-

    And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.
    I believe it's time for another revolution when the government starts fixing votes, although it doesn't really matter who is president is when the Supreme Leader makes all the calls. This does make it easier for him to rule though.
    Last edited by Ice; 06-13-2009 at 18:03.



  27. #27
    The Usual Member Ice's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Scurvy View Post
    Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'
    Read between the lines. By allowing reformist candidates to stand, the people were given the illusion that they actually had a choice (this applies to presidency in general)



  28. #28
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Haha - taking the fight back

    Runes for good luck:

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  29. #29
    Awaiting the Rapture Member rotorgun's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Haha - taking the fight back

    "Looks like this is the end!" It's time for Underdog to make his appearance, or maybe a Brad Pit type of maneuver as portrayed in Troy.
    Rotorgun
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  30. #30
    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Default Re: Iranian Elections

    A valuable analysis:

    But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

    As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

    The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

    They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

    This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

    The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

    This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.

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