The Red Phoenix [Concluded]

[Death is yonder]

I have two lives, beware!

Vote: FactionHeir

What mischief did Pang Tong get up too,

Necromancy?

*swish swoosh* I'm alive!

[Jolt]

How come DiY is alive and dead?

>_>'

Nicely noted. <_<' That's what I get for partially copy-pasta previous days.

Night 6 is over. Standby for execution.

[Jolt]

Sorry guys, something unforseen came up yesterday, and I spent the entire day away and I only came back at dawn.

Anyways, the resuming what happened:

The Red Phoenix - Night 6

Someone stays awake at night and goes to attack Faction Heir, who defends himself yet again and chases the attacker away.

Next day the advisors reconvene yet again to try and find out the culprit.

Day 6 votes are due in 3 PM GMT / 10 AM EST, 3rd of December.

[Yaropolk]

Well at least only one attacker now - FH, any clues in your writeup?

[FactionHeir]

Nope, not this time, or Jolt forgot.

[Yaropolk]

After going back through and reading the posts my FOS points to Beskar and to Subotan

Here's a quick analysis of the alive people:

Subotan has had exactly 0 posts since getting his role, and yet he hasn't been WoG'd, so he's doing something to stay active.

On the day that we voted off Khaan, Beskar jumped on atheotes when Khaan was in danger, quickly followed by Sprig (Sima Yi).

What's worse is that ATPG's analysis agrees with me. If this is right and he figured this out 3 nights ago I'll be mightly impressed.

ATPG post has nice outline of that day's votes:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=112

Beskar has claimed the role of Man Chong (Boning) in one of his earlier posts. Man Chong is a minor Wei side general. However his name was mentioned right in the Red Cliffs wiki article, so it's quite possible he just pulled a minor character from there figuring nobody else will have him.

ATPG and Joooray have both been active and were the first 2 to vote for Khaan. They're likely innocent.

FactionHeir - confirmed pro town power role.

Yaropolk - active but nothing to prove he's innocent. I'd be willing to post my role PM if it comes down to it. I would rank myself third on suspect list after Subotan / Beskar.

After going through that I'm going to vote: Beskar with Subotan being lynchbait for tomorrow.

[Yaropolk]

Actually, changed my mind on the priority of lynches - on the Khaan lynch, Beskar did have a chance to save Khaan by throwing his vote over to Jooray, especially since he would've known Atheotes still had a vote left and would try to save himself.

Subotan today,
Beskar tomorrow

unvote: Beskar vote: Subotan

[Joooray]

Although it also impacts the clues about my own innocence I would recommend that we consider that there might be two independent mafia groups in this game, with one of them emerging when the other is weakened or destroyed. After all the write-up after Sprigs execution does not say anything about a connection to our enemies army but only that he has to die the death of a rebel. That means the voting behavior when we went against khaan might not be the best indicator.
Or am I missing something here.

Apart from that I find your arguments to be sufficient enough to Vote: Subotan. Especially the not being WoGed part is quite damning.

[FactionHeir]

I think at least 3 of the alive are innocent + myself - Beskar, AVSM and possibly Yaropolk.

This leaves on the suspicious list:
Subotan
ATPG
Joooray

I'm not too certain on Subotan's guilt, seeing how he's very much inactive - afterall Jolt threatened me with WoG even though I have a role too...

So if we were to ignore Subotan for now, I would say its either ATPG or Joooray. Joooray claimed absence over the weekend when I was attacked first, so it may clear him unless he lied about that.

So currently my main suspect is ATPG (in particular because he seemed to have some background cooperation with Sprig), though I would like Jolt's commentary regarding Subotan's continued survival first.

I obtained this list via checking the voting rounds regarding Sprig.

P.S.: I think the previous day's vote was rather light (3 votes total) so that doesn't contribute much. Still, I imagine Sprig's partner in crime would not hesitate voting for him considering that they know analysis would be performed, which is why it doesn't clear anyone.

[Beskar]

Beskar has claimed the role of Man Chong (Boning) in one of his earlier posts. Man Chong is a minor Wei side general. However his name was mentioned right in the Red Cliffs wiki article, so it's quite possible he just pulled a minor character from there figuring nobody else will have him.

Trust me, I wouldn't have picked -man as a character.

I just checked the rules, and it only says I can't reveal in private, but I can reveal publicly. Since I will be honest, I haven't paid much attention to the game due to the confusing round end times and the fact I didn't have night actions, I was mainly inactive. I will just post my role pm, most likely get me night killed, but it would be better than an active townie/power-role dying.

Greetings, Beskar!

Congratulations! You are General Who Is Mighty Man Chong

Man Chong, General Who Is Mighty

A talented advisor and general, you had been recommended to Cao Cao by Liu Ye. You showed your worth when you brought over Xu Huang, which has been tremendously helpful in Cao Cao's drive to success. Your worthiness doesn't exhaust there, as you have also done service spying in the campaign against Cao Cao and you have frequently been called to advise the Prime Minister on military matters. These rumors have been quite strange, and you are unsure what to make of them. Phreaps listening closely to what the other advisors say might give you an idea if someone did indeed write the protesting papers or not.

((You are a regular townie))

Victory Conditions: Kill every mafioso to win.

Have fun! :P

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think at least 3 of the alive are innocent + myself - Beskar, AVSM and possibly Yaropolk.

This leaves on the suspicious list:
Subotan
ATPG
Joooray

I'm not too certain on Subotan's guilt, seeing how he's very much inactive - afterall Jolt threatened me with WoG even though I have a role too...

So if we were to ignore Subotan for now, I would say its either ATPG or Joooray. Joooray claimed absence over the weekend when I was attacked first, so it may clear him unless he lied about that.

So currently my main suspect is ATPG (in particular because he seemed to have some background cooperation with Sprig), though I would like Jolt's commentary regarding Subotan's continued survival first.

I obtained this list via checking the voting rounds regarding Sprig.

P.S.: I think the previous day's vote was rather light (3 votes total) so that doesn't contribute much. Still, I imagine Sprig's partner in crime would not hesitate voting for him considering that they know analysis would be performed, which is why it doesn't clear anyone.

Subotan is in no way inactive. He's all over the 30 years war game.

I think I understand why I am your main suspect, FactionHeir, but think of the logistics... someone recently attacked me and you defended me.

Did I attack myself?

[Yaropolk]

A talented advisor and general, you had been recommended to Cao Cao by Liu Ye. You showed your worth when you brought over Xu Huang, which has been tremendously helpful in Cao Cao's drive to success. Your worthiness doesn't exhaust there, as you have also done service spying in the campaign against Cao Cao and you have frequently been called to advise the Prime Minister on military matters. These rumors have been quite strange, and you are unsure what to make of them. Phreaps listening closely to what the other advisors say might give you an idea if someone did indeed write the protesting papers or not

The bolded sentence doesn't fit in there unless the previous sentence describes the rumors.... what did you cut immediately before it?

[Beskar]

The bolded sentence doesn't fit in there unless the previous sentence describes the rumors.... what did you cut immediately before it?

Nothing. I didn't need to cut anything out. That is the role and exact write-up Jolt sent me. I could obviously screenshot it, but the rules forbid that. :shurg:

If you want to tell the host he did a bad role PM, go ahead. I haven't touched it.

It could be a reference to the openng post which talked about rumours.

The memos were written with very aggressive, borderline mutinous, and erudite language, which made it seem like it was written by one of the more intelligent men. This gave way to rumors as to who was writing the circulating papers. Of course, the soldierly, began pointing fingers at the original staff, that they were dissatisfied with the importance that the Prime-Minister was giving a newcomer, and that they were becoming mutinous.

[Sprig]

Subotan is in no way inactive. He's all over the 30 years war game.

I think I understand why I am your main suspect, FactionHeir, but think of the logistics... someone recently attacked me and you defended me.

Did I attack myself?

Thats a pretty poor defense there ATPG. We are all aware of who attacked you.

[Yaropolk]

Maybe - my PM is very similar to yours and contains that line, but it explicitly says that I'm rumored to be upset with Cao Cao for accepting the newcomer. I believe your PM is legitemate.

I didn't realize we had such a detailed outline provided to us by Jolt, all that stuff I wrote was from unrelated sources. So Jolt explicitly mentions Xu Shu and Pang Tong in his first writeup. That leads me to believe Sima Yi (Sprig) + the other guy are a second mafia unrelated to PT & XS. So.....scratch what I said about Jooray and ATPG being innocent for killing Khaan.

I'll still happily vote off a lurker (Subotan), but now my list of innocents is down to FH and Beskar.

FH - what leads you to believe AVSM is innocent?

[A Very Super Market]

Why not? I have voted correctly like a good little townie based on both mafioso.

If it shall please you, I am the great Cao Ren.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Thats a pretty poor defense there ATPG. We are all aware of who attacked you.

Sorry, I always thought being a murder target made me innocent. Foolish me. There have only ever been one murder at night, which seems to indicate one mafia family. No serial killers (because they aren't killing) and not two families (because they aren't killing). So I just find it interesting that me being targeted by a family allows for the possibility of me being guilty. How is that possible? Is factionheir, who defended me, and who was also attacked, my scum buddy, and did we set this all up so that I attack him and he attacks me to make us both look innocent? Because that's the only option I see. Bottom line is that I'm innocent and it should be flipping obvious that I am. Also Factionheir.

The best defense is that I am innocent. I may have been attacked since I went after Subotan earlier in the game, and he's not cleared and he's still alive and he's been active in other games, not so active here.

My suspect is Subotan.

vote: Subotan

OH PS- I claimed detective so I could get attacked at night, so I would die. If I were a serial killer (with apparently no kills) and there were multiple families, that would be boneheaded dumb. It wouldn't fool anyone for long and it would guarantee my own death, either by murder or by lynch. I dunno I think anyone who accuses me isn't paying close attention or thinking.

[Jolt]

I should inform you guys that I am under a lot of stress due to a bucketload of essays I have to do in several days. On account of that, I forgot to check who missed two votes in a row.

As such, I can inform you guys that Subotan's non-WoG is not on account of him having a role or not (I have threatened in the beginning people with important roles), but because I forgot. Regardless of that, if he doesn't vote this Day, I will WoG him. Also, make no mistake, I will lynch Townies, Pro-Town and Mafia alike if they fail to vote twice in a row.

[Yaropolk]

I should inform you guys that I am under a lot of stress due to a bucketload of essays I have to do in several days. On account of that, I forgot to check who missed two votes in a row.

As such, I can inform you guys that Subotan's non-WoG is not on account of him having a role or not (I have threatened in the beginning people with important roles), but because I forgot. Regardless of that, if he doesn't vote this Day, I will WoG him. Also, make no mistake, I will lynch Townies, Pro-Town and Mafia alike if they fail to vote twice in a row.

In that case, Unvote: Subotan, Vote: ATPG

There have clearly been 2 discreet group of night killers. One was Pang Tong + Xu Shu
The other was Sima Yi + his partner.
This is clearly seen, and yet ATPG denies the simple logic.

[atheotes]

i wish i was still alive

[Beskar]

Going to vote: Sabotan till I read the arguments tomorrow as I am going to bed now and if i don't vote (if deadline is tomorrow), I will get WoG'd.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In that case, Unvote: Subotan, Vote: ATPG

There have clearly been 2 discreet group of night killers. One was Pang Tong + Xu Shu
The other was Sima Yi + his partner.
This is clearly seen, and yet ATPG denies the simple logic.

One mafia family is dead. Yet I was attacked.


WHERE'S YOUR SIMPLE LOGIC NOW?????

[Yaropolk]

Tally:

Subotan 3 (ATPG, Jooray, Beskar)
ATPG 1 (Yaro)

[Sprig]

Maybe - my PM is very similar to yours and contains that line, but it explicitly says that I'm rumored to be upset with Cao Cao for accepting the newcomer. I believe your PM is legitemate.

I didn't realize we had such a detailed outline provided to us by Jolt, all that stuff I wrote was from unrelated sources. So Jolt explicitly mentions Xu Shu and Pang Tong in his first writeup. That leads me to believe Sima Yi (Sprig) + the other guy are a second mafia unrelated to PT & XS. So.....scratch what I said about Jooray and ATPG being innocent for killing Khaan.

I'll still happily vote off a lurker (Subotan), but now my list of innocents is down to FH and Beskar.

FH - what leads you to believe AVSM is innocent?

err you are all still making a big mistake... and quite obviously deliberately to mislead others.

I am\was not mafia. I am not saying Faction heir is lying, I am just saying that he was decieved.

[Askthepizzaguy]

BAH bogus.

I was attacked by Pang Tong. So that means I can't use that reasoning.

I give up. I have NOT been paying close attention to this game. Go ahead and lynch me, I have no defense whatsoever.

I'm just freakin' innocent, and I'm also too busy for this

[Yaropolk]

err you are all still making a big mistake... and quite obviously deliberately to mislead others.

I am\was not mafia. I am not saying Faction heir is lying, I am just saying that he was decieved.

Sprig - since you were lynched, we've only seen 1 person go after FH - how do you explain that?

[atheotes]

err you are all still making a big mistake... and quite obviously deliberately to mislead others.

I am\was not mafia. I am not saying Faction heir is lying, I am just saying that he was decieved.

arent you dead? i am not sure how much you are allowed to talk.

[Sprig]

Sprig - since you were lynched, we've only seen 1 person go after FH - how do you explain that?

You're well aware why - you sneaky man you. Why attack with two people when you can attack with one. It also gives the nice illusion of there only being one left.

Sorry to dispel any cover you were hoping to make.

[Beskar]

But why would two people attack one person all game, and not seperate people, also, how did Factionheir be able to defend from two seperate attackers, usually, protection can only save you from one of them.

However, in Jolt's write-up, there is this.

Executed (5):
Centurion1 - Mao Jie
Yaseikhaan - Xu Shu
Paulus Tertius - Xun Yu
Death is Yonder - Pang Tong
Sprig - Sima Yi

Assassinated (2):
Diana Abnoba - Xiahou Dun
atheotes - Jia Xu

Both YaseiKhaan and DIY were the two Mafia in the beginning. Also, Jolt labelled the both of those with red font. While Sprig argument by FactionHeir seemed convincing, Jolt never red fonted Sprig's name. Does that mean Sprig was actually a Mafia? Also, since the two Mafia which were called the Mafia dead, who could it be?

Luckily, there is a possible explanation. On page 8 by Paulus Tertius.

I never had the intent of going mafia - even if I would have fulfilled the requirements.

This suggests the possibility of Emergent Mafia based on a set of conditions. however, if Sprig was an emergent mafia, wouldn't his name be redded by Jolt? (so in short, a question to the Host, are all the Mafia got red-fonted when they died?)

Another issue of this, I will say to Yaropolk. You pulled out incidences of people which looked scummy at the beginning (including myself) and you said about Khaan. Emergent Mafia (at a guess) may or maynot even be related to those Mafia or be akin to Serial Killers/Emergent Serial Killers. So looking at who voted who at the beginning would be redunant, as if it is emergent mafia, they wouldn't have tried to save Khaan or DIY, as they wouldn't even be on the same side of them.

This also draws into a more serious and scary point. If it is emergent Mafia, then everyone who we pretty much think is innocent, could not be. Though, I think I can give FactionHeir benefit of the doubt, as they keep trying to attack him, but still, your argument for example AVSM saying you was a good townie and voted them off, actually means nothing, as it is possible you were never on the same side anyway.

[FactionHeir]

ATPG:
My reasoning that you aren't cleared is that you were attacked by mafia gang 1. Not attacked since emergence of gang 2, and you seemed to be working closely with Sprig.

I imagine emergent mafia know of each other in any case as otherwise Sprig and his partner wouldn't have been able to make a joint attack (writeup clearly indicates joint), unless of course both attackers are very active players.

Regarding reddening of names, I imagine its Jolt's oversight - re: WoG.

vote: ATPG

since Subotan will be WoGed anyway...

I guess Joooray is next if that doesn't stop the attacks.