The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded] [Archive] - Page 3

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Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 02:55

What is it you've done recently that mafia supposedly wouldn't do?

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 02:59

What is it you've done recently that mafia supposedly wouldn't do?

Absolutely nothing. But what I am doing is really dumb if I were mafia.

See? The person bringing heat on me is me, to attempt to prove a psychological point. However, I also know that WIFOM arguments are soooo tempting, even a mafia veteran of legendary status such as yourself will bite, so I will stop. In a perfect world it would prove my point, but townies are paranoid and it is distracting, so I will stop.

Or I could point out that you took the bait and went after an easy suspect. :wink:

Have some pizza.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:03

On a more SOLID point of evidence, in every single game as a townie, I've deliberately created WIFOM arguments against myself, and generally avoided doing so as mafia.

That's something you can actually sink your teeth into. If I break this streak, it will no longer work as a way of clearing myself. And it's gotten me lynched almost every single time, and I was innocent every single time.

Mmmm... Cheesy Goodness.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 03:04

Absolutely nothing. But what I am doing is really dumb if I were mafia.

If it's in character then why is it dumb? You've mentioned several times that you always post a whole lot.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:08

LittleGrizzly

02-10-2009, 03:11

If you try too much harder to prove your innocence i may vote for you...

Seamus Fermanagh

02-10-2009, 03:13

Pizza:

GH never said you weren't an effective mafioso -- he said you weren't inconspicuous.

You make Sasaki seem like a lurker.

Between you two and the inscrutable reenkster, Mafia-ing is quite entertaining.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:14

@LG

Predictable.

Well, you've done it before guys, and as expected, you'll do it again. :applause:

I refuse to stop doing this, by the way. If it takes 10 or 20 mafia games, with me being lynched immediately and proven innocent afterward, eventually you will see that it makes no sense for me to keep doing it as a mafia, because it IS handing you my head on a platter.

There's no other way to look at it. Come now, LittleGrizzly.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:17

I haven't given up on the idea that there are ways to prove your innocence without actual proof.

But, if at last it never catches on with anyone besides myself, I may pull an Ichigo and only really ever show up to vote, and get lynched every time for being a lurker. Same result, less effort.

:smash:

LittleGrizzly

02-10-2009, 03:18

Im not saying your guilty but you completely cloud my thinking with your determined innocence talk and it makes me think of you somewhat as a mocking mafia

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 03:22

Oh, pardon me, but I have places to be and cannot respond to your questioning kthanxbye!

To respond to your observation, that wasn't the point of what I was saying. What I was saying was, rather than "I must be innocent because I post alot" (Which is false because I do that as mafia), was that I am innocent because I am intentionally, and for no seemingly rational purpose, bringing heat on myself and then responding to questioning.

But what you said was going to bring heat on you really doesn't. Who cares about a little wifom?

And it has gotten me dead, every single time I've done it.

I'm not familiar with your post. Right now you and sigurd would be my top two to vote for. Sigurd because he's lurking and thus not revealing much, and you because you're doing the opposite. The amount of long winded zaniness you post makes people miss the trees for the forest. If you had just posted your attack on shlin you would have drawn suspicion for it as it was a weak attack based on a careless reading. But it gets lost in the shuffle of all your other posts. PK was successful with this kind of play as my partner in taormina. Your case on gaius was full of holes as well. I don't intend to post a long rebuttal because I don't object to people being prodded and having to defend themselves and I think it's fairly evident to those who read it carefully (if anyone bothered).

In summary, it's an anti-town posting style like lurking is and that makes you a good candidate for an early lynch.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:24

It's not my style, though. I could prepare an exhaustive list of links to previous mafia games I've been in and prove it, but I don't think it's necessary.

MY way of mocking the town is very simple; be as townie as possible and then laugh at you when we win. I would not draw heat on myself on purpose just to get lynched. That's not mocking, because when I succeed in my efforts, die, and there are less murders per round, you will know I am guilty, and it will be ME who looks the fool, not you.

I don't like looking the fool. I am prepared to take great risks to help you guys out, post until my fingers bleed, spend 50 hours creating mafia tools, and do exhaustive analysis on everyone in a game, because I don't want to look like a lazy or foolish townie. And there are things I refuse to do to win a mafia game, such as lurking.

I have my own code of honor, and I get more satisfaction from winning if I pull the wool over your eyes in a flawless manner, not in this absurdly flawed and idiotic manner.

Note well that this entire line of questioning I purposefully brought ON MYSELF and stayed to answer your questions. If mafia have ever done that before, I will be surprised.

In spite of your doubts about me, can you not see there is logic in what I'm doing, in spite of the risks? I trust that you can. In spite of the track record, I still have faith in town to "get" me eventually.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:27

But what you said was going to bring heat on you really doesn't. Who cares about a little wifom?

It's hardly a little.

I'm not familiar with your post. Right now you and sigurd would be my top two to vote for. Sigurd because he's lurking and thus not revealing much, and you because you're doing the opposite. The amount of long winded zaniness you post makes people miss the trees for the forest. If you had just posted your attack on shlin you would have drawn suspicion for it as it was a weak attack based on a careless reading. But it gets lost in the shuffle of all your other posts. PK was successful with this kind of play as my partner in taormina. Your case on gaius was full of holes as well. I don't intend to post a long rebuttal because I don't object to people being prodded and having to defend themselves and I think it's fairly evident to those who read it carefully (if anyone bothered).

In summary, it's an anti-town posting style like lurking is and that makes you a good candidate for an early lynch.

This is the same argument that everyone always uses against me when I do this, and it's always wrong.

And when I am mafia I am more subtle about my own alignment status. I don't parade around going "lynch me, lynch me" because I KNOW YOU WILL. YOU GUYS WILL ALWAYS LYNCH ME.

:idea2:

I'm just saying. You're only stroking my ego when you suggest I'd be this bold, so thank you for the compliment. I will continue to help out after I am dead, but you could always ask yourself if it follows for a mafia to try to get lynched, especially when that would LIMIT THEM TO ONE MURDER.

:idea2:

Clues, guys. Clues.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 03:54

Nothing else?

Ok. I had planned on leaving at 9PM but I didn't want to skip out of being questioned. I'm leaving in a few minutes, so if you have further questions about me please pose them now.

Sometimes, when playing these games, I think what might be happening is that you're observing the kind of behavior that's coming from me, but you're disregarding the content. The behavior coming from me is undoubtedly questionable, but the content makes no sense if I were mafia.

The options:

1. I am a townie, and I have a point about what I am saying.

If you listen to me carefully and work it out for yourself, it's highly unlikely any mafia would do this, and even me, in spite of my crazy gambits. Because:

2. As mafia, I am virtually guaranteeing you will lynch me. Because town always does. It's automatic. Anytime anyone steps forward and does this set of behavior, it always results in that person's death, in the immediate future or in the now.

It does not follow that a mafia would do this, because the "gambit" fails when it succeeds. You believe I'm guilty, you lynch me, mafia has one less kill per night (What a coup for town!) and you also don't believe anything I say because I am proven mafia.

I'm shooting myself in the foot and yelping like a scalded dog, or like a pizza guy who intentionally shot his foot off. If I have devious reasons for doing so, it won't matter, because you'll kill me anyway AND I will have almost single-handedly ruined the game for the mafia. Bravo.

I don't think that's a likely scenario, and until I see it happen in a game, I am using it to prove my innocence. You can ignore the logic, but it's still there.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 04:02

Would you perhaps swear to me that you aren't mafia? In a sentence like "I swear that I am not a mafioso"

oh, and make sure you get the capitalization right :laugh4:

Beefy187

02-10-2009, 04:09

Would you perhaps swear to me that you aren't mafia? In a sentence like "I swear that I am not a mafioso"

oh, and make sure you get the capitalization right :laugh4:

mind you.. last time we tried that "truth" thing, CR found a loop hole and managed to fool us all :smash:

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 04:11

Through my actions, and by planting myself intentionally on this course towards sure self-destruction, I already have sworn to you that I am not a mafia.

Saying so will prove nothing, actions speak louder. But if you need to hear the words, for whatever reason:

I swear I am not mafia. I swear I am a townie. I swear I have no role. You will be just fine if I die. You will do better if I do not. You will do better if mafia is forced to kill me. That is why I am trying to be removed from the suspect list... mafia will have no choice but to kill me.

I am betting they don't want me, with my big inquisitive mouth, my vote, and my analysis system, to remain an active part of the game in the final stages. I need to die before then for them to have a better chance of victory. And in doing so, they waste a kill on a non-detective and give me a free hand to persecute them.

Darned if you do... darned if you don't.

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 04:12

I swear that I am not a mafioso.

I want to make sure I repeated it verbatim.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 04:13

mind you.. last time we tried that "truth" thing, CR found a loop hole and managed to fool us all :smash:

Funny story eh? :laugh4:

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 04:15

Ok I'm curious. Anyone have a link so I can be in on the joke? :smash:

Beefy187

02-10-2009, 04:16

Funny story eh? :laugh4:

"Truth" only works because CR built the reputation of not lying. ATPG swearing means nothing and even if it does he can still find his loop hole :laugh4:

But I do like honest peoples. They make my life more cheerful and bright until I find out that they betrayed me after all.. Cough Gaius..Cough!:whip:

GeneralHankerchief

02-10-2009, 04:16

Mafia VII.

It's >1400 posts, and I don't feel like looking for the exact one.

But basically CR, known for his reputation of being a truthteller, said he was not "mafia" and not "Mafia" to get by them asking him for his role (or lack, thereof). He was mafia (or Mafia).

Askthepizzaguy

02-10-2009, 04:25

"Truth" only works because CR built the reputation of not lying. ATPG swearing means nothing and even if it does he can still find his loop hole :laugh4:

But I do like honest peoples. They make my life more cheerful and bright until I find out that they betrayed me after all.. Cough Gaius..Cough!:whip:

Ah, but that's just it... track record alone means nothing.

More yakking:

I had a track record of being super townie and would side with them no matter what. Then, when offered the choice to be town of mafia in "You Can't Win", I chose mafia, and gambled on my reputation as being pro-town that no one would suspect my neutral aligned character went bad. Quintus.JC believed me.

Anyone can break with tradition. That's why, if I were banking on my reputation alone here, this would be a bad move. I lie, and I love to lie. Crafting a fantastically believable lie is part of the fun of mafia. But, some things are scummy no matter what, and some things aren't scummy, or if they are scummy are inherently bad for the mafia.

If I do this as mafia, I would lose. If I do this as townie, and the message is heard, we win. If the mafia get the hint and start to bluff, doing this tactic, chances are they will die a foolish death. It's a win/win/win scenario. And when this fails, and you lynch me, and there's two murders still, I win again, and proven a point at the same time.

It's never been done before and it has a really bad chance of succeeding if it's a scum move, so maybe the benefit of the doubt this time coupled with Occam's razor and a little bit of deductive reasoning and playing the odds? That's what I'm asking for.

It's now 1:22 past when I was going to leave, and as delightful as the theoretical discussion is, I concede that prolonging it will be distracting, and nothing I say or do at this point will be further helpful nor will it further clear me, it will be counter-productive.

We'll see if I survive the night, and the next day, and I'll be back to open my big cake hole when I return. All I ask is that you either ignore the entirety of what I am saying, chalk it up to me being me and not read it (too much to read) or you do the work and read it, reason it out, and draw a conclusion.

What I hate is the lazy glances at the wall o' text and therefore declare it equals scum, because that's me, always.

Wall o text hiding in spoilers.

Beefy187

02-10-2009, 04:35

Ah, but that's just it... track record alone means nothing.

More yakking:

I had a track record of being super townie and would side with them no matter what. Then, when offered the choice to be town of mafia in "You Can't Win", I chose mafia, and gambled on my reputation as being pro-town that no one would suspect my neutral aligned character went bad. Quintus.JC believed me.

Anyone can break with tradition. That's why, if I were banking on my reputation alone here, this would be a bad move. I lie, and I love to lie. Crafting a fantastically believable lie is part of the fun of mafia. But, some things are scummy no matter what, and some things aren't scummy, or if they are scummy are inherently bad for the mafia.

If I do this as mafia, I would lose. If I do this as townie, and the message is heard, we win. If the mafia get the hint and start to bluff, doing this tactic, chances are they will die a foolish death. It's a win/win/win scenario. And when this fails, and you lynch me, and there's two murders still, I win again, and proven a point at the same time.

It's never been done before and it has a really bad chance of succeeding if it's a scum move, so maybe the benefit of the doubt this time coupled with Occam's razor and a little bit of deductive reasoning and playing the odds? That's what I'm asking for.

It's now 1:22 past when I was going to leave, and as delightful as the theoretical discussion is, I concede that prolonging it will be distracting, and nothing I say or do at this point will be further helpful nor will it further clear me, it will be counter-productive.

We'll see if I survive the night, and the next day, and I'll be back to open my big cake hole when I return. All I ask is that you either ignore the entirety of what I am saying, chalk it up to me being me and not read it (too much to read) or you do the work and read it, reason it out, and draw a conclusion.

What I hate is the lazy glances at the wall o' text and therefore declare it equals scum, because that's me, always.

Wall o text hiding in spoilers.

Scum:thumbsdown:

Were you expecting a clown? Well no. ATPG is a scum and heres the proof:clown:

TinCow

02-10-2009, 05:00

Egads, yet another game in which ATPG destroys all conversation just to focus attention on himself. Seriously, this is getting tiresome. :thumbsdown:

Gaius Scribonius Curio

02-10-2009, 06:36

OK, I'm back the next afternoon as I said I would be. Even though a number of people have made statements supporting me I feel it would be fair to answer ATPG's case against me in one post. His major points: I'm not posting often enough; my posts are longwinded but essentially inconclusive; my disappearance last night was staged; my posts sound 'forced' and 'fertilised'; and my pick-up of my kill description being lifted was 'too convenient'. I believe that is all at this stage, but please correct me if I am wrong.

Firstly, to the accusation that I am not posting enough. Essentially you are saying that I am lurking, which would be a false assertion. I turn up, at least once a day, post my thoughts on the kill write-ups and on the major talking points of the day/night, and then vote. Yes my votes have been seemingly random, that is in the absence of any hard evidence. I'm posting enough to have caught your attention with my posts, therefore I am posting sufficiently often. Are you arguing that my behaviour is impeding the Town's efforts to find the mafia? If so say that, and stop being vague.

ATPG claims my 'analyses are hollow'. They are speculations and musings at this early stage. As I said yesterday would you prefer I said nothing? I'm not expecting to turn up a mafioso with my observations, but it makes sense to make note of any inconsistencies, because later on when there is more information, and more inconsistencies we will be able to see what has already been recorded. It is also claimed that I conclude nothing. I answer that it is dangerous to draw conclusions from too little information, hence why my musings are so loosely relevant.

To the calls that my disappearance was staged, I assert that even as I posted my thoughts on the previous day, I specifically said that I had a football game. This, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury was before ATPG even confronted me. I did stick around longer than I should have and was almost late. You will be pleased to know that despite this setback my team won through to the semi-finals and avoided drawing the only undefeated team in the league. ATPG tried to illustrate that I didn't care about this game. That is a mistake. I enjoy my sport certainly, and play 5 days a week, and it is true that I am also working full-time while I am off university, but as I have noted before I make my effort to come online every day and contribute my thoughts.

ATPG believes that my posts sound 'fertilised'. I have no idea whether this is true or not, however I don't believe that I am posting in a way any different to that which I usually do. I'm certainly not spending any more time than usual on my choice of words... I can't prove anything in this regard but neither can ATPG.

Finally, ATPG claims that it rather convenient that I managed to spot my own kill description and bring it to our attention. Do you really think so little of me that I would draw attention to myself in such a high-profile way when I had been out of the spotlight, were I a mafioso? Someone, I believe it was Beefy, also pointed out that I would only have about 4 to choose from. It is certainly unlikely that someone is attempting to do more than disguise their own writing style, so how would it benefit me as a mafioso to bring attention to my own writing?

I trust, ladies and gentlemen of the jury that I have not bored you to my with my defence. Good day to you....

And Beefy, just for the record, I never actually denied being mafia, it just never came up... :laugh4:

Seamus Fermanagh

02-10-2009, 06:39

Kojiro-san tried that as a tactic for a while, but then shifted away. He's still active, but not frenetic. Pizza is frenetic.

Sasaki:

To the extent that this means anything {limited}, Pizza is usually a very heavy poster in mafia games. I'd have to do a post count, but I believe we'd find he's slightly less active when mafia than when town.

Beefy187

02-10-2009, 07:07

@Gaius

Well im "gullible" (Quote: Gaius 08) after all :laugh4:

Just so the same thing doesn't happen again... Are you a cold hearted killer Gaius?

EDIT

@ Seamus

You seem to be correct. Look at Teddy Snatcher. He single handedly made half the post in the entire thread and he turned out to be innocent.

White_eyes:D

02-10-2009, 07:46

@ Seamus

You seem to be correct. Look at Teddy Snatcher. He single handedly made half the post in the entire thread and he turned out to be innocent.
I know.....and we lost because he was always looking at what the Mafia's(Khaan) said:stare: If only you had lynched me when you had the chance....:no: in the "Teddy bear Snatcher" but instead you over-analyzed Khaan and my name came-up twice mentioned...."whoops WE is guilty":rolleyes: and we only had one round left....and the same thing happened with TinCow in "Chicago soiree" which was quite a lurker victory....(I will never redeem myself for that....:shame:) I think you were quite sure TinCow was Mafia in that one as well (even lynching yourself:wall:).....:thumbsdown:

Gaius Scribonius Curio

02-10-2009, 07:51

Beefy187

02-10-2009, 08:42

@ Beefy: The one occaision I have indulged I've killed with a smile and 'shame that I have to do this'... Make of that what you will. :laugh4:

Also, just to make it clear that I don't think that ATPG is guilty, and I certainly don't find his mammoth post count suspicious, I merely know that he is mistaken on the matter of my guilt.

Its ok..I forgive you.. But like I said in the end of that mafia game (well at least I think I did) Ill have my revenge eventually...

@White_eyes

At least ATPG is giving his best effort to catch the scums. Even if the mammoth posts can be hollow in terms of the quality, its still giving us some directions to walk towards and creating discussion. Though whether to trust him or not is our choice to make.

I don't think Gaius is guilty but ATPG did make a couple of good posts. But even without it, I would never keep my eyes off Gaius after that incident :smash:

boudica

02-10-2009, 12:13

Egads, yet another game in which ATPG destroys all conversation just to focus attention on himself. Seriously, this is getting tiresome. :thumbsdown:

Its WIFOM-WIAP (Wine in front of me when I'm already pished)

ATPG - you're asking for mafia to kill you and constantly claiming that people are going to lynch you anyway. If I were alive I'd vote for you as I think you're making it easier for mafia.

Your inquisition is great for town, but leave some room between your posts for other people to say something constructive/ incriminate themselves.

Say for instance that every game you play as town you spam the board in order to prove your innocence. At some point when you ARE mafia, it would be a rational strategy to spam the board in order to prove your innocence - that's why I'd vote to lynch you every time you play this way.

@Everyone: WHo would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?

I found the finger pointing going on between Jolt and Little Grizzly quite interesting. I'd certainly pick LG as a soldier if I were Godfather and I found his suspicions of Jolt to be a little bit pre-fab. Innocent or guilty I shall haunt his posts for a while :skull:

Beefy187

02-10-2009, 13:03

@Everyone: WHo would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?

If I was going for victory then, Ichigo+ Sasaki. I would love to see them under my command.

If I was going for lols and giggles then Ares and Reenk. I think we'll make a good team :laugh4:

Reenk Roink

02-10-2009, 14:58

@Everyone: WHo would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?

Seamus would be one and I won't tell you the second (it would be off a list of potential suitors).

Ah heck I'll tell ya! I was going for Seamus and Beefy had I gotten to be the Godfather. :bow:

Seamus would be the first choice because of old timessakes. Practical reasons in his favor would be that he's one of the best at keeping his behavior and he always seems to be innocent looking and live long.

Beefy because I still must work with this extremely nice and funny guy. You can't win was so incomplete. Practical reason is that Beefy is amazing as Mafia as you have all seen.

I also considered an elite veteran Seamus - Sigurd tandem but Sigurd has won far far too much so I know he understands that I would share the wealth. :bow:

I also considered Aries and White eyes for spots. Unfortunately they tend to get lynched through no fault of their own, but are very funny guys and I know for a fact White eyes is really good (Aries probably is too). And the most important thing is that they play the game like I like to play. :bow:

I also considered YLC who I never got to play a game with as Mafia, but talked with him a lot when he hosted Whispers. Plus even though suspicion is on him, he always stays alive. :bow:

Jolt

02-10-2009, 15:06

I'd pick TinCow and Seamus. Just 'cause their the admins and they'd be able to delete other people posts lynching me. :P

Good choices young padawan! We are very grateful for the respect you show us ! - TinCow & Seamus

GeneralHankerchief

02-10-2009, 15:38

Well, I know who I'd pick. :tongue:

TinCow

02-10-2009, 15:40

An interesting question. My gut instinct would be to go with one high-profile person and one low-profile person, for flexibility. However, there's also a part of me that would consider a Sasaki/Reenk Roink pairing or Seamus/Andres just for sheer boldness. The idea of an 'all green' mafia might be amusing enough to me for it to win out in the end.

GeneralHankerchief

02-10-2009, 15:47

As I have class until 14:00 EST today, the night writeup will be a little late.

Andres

02-10-2009, 15:51

I would either go for random.org or a combination of "low profile/luker players", like seireikhaan (an excellent mafioso, usually flies under the radar until late midgame+ has very creative ideas) and boudica/glyphz (I was very impressed by those two in Ephesus; they belong into the "survivor" category as they don't seem to draw suspicion easily).

White_eyes:D

02-10-2009, 16:00

I would go with a Reenk/Sasaki combo.....Reenk:Awesome in fooling town and just plain bullfloping.....Sasaki: it's like he possess a 6th Mafia sense.....:smash:

Sigurd

02-10-2009, 16:31

What a mammoth thread... :disappointed:

I have finally read it all and I must say... there is a bit white noise in here.
What leads do we have?

Posts
Writeups
Voting pattern
Mafia musings

If I were GF, I would have chosen low-profile players leaving the high profiles to lynch each other.
Firstly, the detective tend to go after high profiles when investigating.
I would assume that at least Sasaki have been investigated by now and possibly Seamus or TinCow.
The Godfather is graced with the ability of appearing innocent when investigated, so my strategy would be to pick which players I thought would not be investigated until the later rounds of the game. Also, I would probably have chosen players which garnered some suspicion in other games and was later proven innocent, such as TevashSzat as an example.

seireikhaan

02-10-2009, 16:35

WHOA...

Wild URL avatar, Sigurd. :thumbsup:

Sigurd

02-10-2009, 16:39

WHOA...

Wild URL avatar, Sigurd. :thumbsup:
Heh... I just changed it.

Seamus Fermanagh

02-10-2009, 16:57

Some more data for evaluation:

Posting as of Post #539

User Name , Posts , ppp(40 on a page), Comp ppp recent games
Askthepizzaguy 82 5.85 Ephesus (twn) 4.6 Chicago (twn) 7.19 Fillet (P-twn) 3.24 promo (maf) 3.79
GeneralHankerchief 42
Sasaki Kojiro 35 2.5
187Beefyz 34 2.42
777Ares777 33 2.36
Andres 30 2.14
TinCow 26 1.86
shlin28 22 1.57
YLC 21 1.5
Seamus Fermanagh 17 1.21 Ephesus (twn) 0.71
Reenk Roink 17 1.21 fillet (p-twn) 1.71 promo (maf, early reveal as det) 2.37
LittleGrizzly 17 1.21
White_eyes:D 14 1.0
Quintus.JC 14 1.0 fillet (maf) 2.76
seireikhaan 13 0.93
CountArach 13 0.93
Lord Winter 12 0.86
TevashSzat 11 0.79 fillet (p-twn) 0.47
boudica 11 0.79
Gaius Scribonius Curio 11 0.79
Jolt 10 0.71
Chaotix27 9 0.64 Ephesus (maf) 0.64 fillet (maf) 1.71
Tratorix 9 0.64
glyphz 8 0.57 Ephesus (maf) 0.85
Sigurd 8 0.57 Ephesus (maf) 1.29 Chicago (maf) 0.67
Rythmic 7 0.5
Ichigo 5 0.36
taka 3 0.21
Ignoramus 2 0.14
Myrddraal 2
Ituralde 1

Votes cast on murder victims:

'khaan = by Sasaki, D2 (1st lynch). Please note, this was Sasaki's first vote, he changed to Ichigo.

White_eyes:D

02-10-2009, 17:05

Myrddraal 2
Ituralde 1
I must open my eyes when reading posts.....they are in this game??? or are you pulling my leg??:dizzy2:
but I get a "WOG coming soon" from them....:smash:

LittleGrizzly

02-10-2009, 17:08

WE niether of them are in the game, thats why seamus made them yellow....

The people in red have been murdered the people in blue lynched and that purple guy is the host...

White_eyes:D

02-10-2009, 17:19

WE niether of them are in the game, thats why seamus made them yellow....

The people in red have been murdered the people in blue lynched and that purple guy is the host...

hmmm.....I could barely see it:inquisitive:.....thought something was up when there names were made almost invisible...:juggle2:

TinCow

02-10-2009, 17:21

The Godfather is graced with the ability of appearing innocent when investigated, so my strategy would be to pick which players I thought would not be investigated until the later rounds of the game. Also, I would probably have chosen players which garnered some suspicion in other games and was later proven innocent, such as TevashSzat as an example.

This is probably the best assumption to make when trying to figure out who was likely to be chosen by the Godfather. Most Godfathers would likely go this route, because it is the one that makes the most sense given a relative inability to predict who the detective would investigate in the first couple rounds.

Living people who seem to fit this profile to me:
LittleGrizzly
White_eyes:D
Quintus.JC
TevashSzat
Jolt
Chaotix27
glyphz
taka
Ignoramus

Others who I would consider slightly higher profile, but still possible choices:
shlin28
YLC
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Rythmic

Seamus Fermanagh

02-10-2009, 17:52

Actually, early detective choices are reasonably predictable. It's not an absolute, but the trend is:

N1 = person they are most familiar with/view as salient player
N2 = really active poster
N3 = 1st where the detective is trying to select targets based on behavior/post quality etc. Varies more from here on.

Quintus.JC

02-10-2009, 18:16

@Everyone: WHo would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?

I found the finger pointing going on between Jolt and Little Grizzly quite interesting. I'd certainly pick LG as a soldier if I were Godfather and I found his suspicions of Jolt to be a little bit pre-fab. Innocent or guilty I shall haunt his posts for a while :skull:

Personally I'd pick either

Boudica & Rythmic or YLC & Shlin

Superb players in their own right, and always seems to be on town's side even when they're actually plotting their demise.

I definitely wouldn't pick any high profile people because that's the obvious move. Most people tend to pick at least one high profile and one low profile, so I think the possiblity of the following people being at least one of the Godfather's lackey is quite high:

Andres
Sigurd
Reenk
Seamus
Tincow
Sasaki

These people are among the greatest mafia players to grace the guild, and it would take a great deal of resolve to not pick them to be your partner in crime.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 19:28

I would probably have picked Rythmic & CountArach.

While fun, I don't think we can learn much from this (could be useful for the detective though). The Godfather is the one we absolutely have to lynch, and he could be anyone. So it's not useful to say "so-and-so probably wouldn't be picked as a henchmen, so we shouldn't lynch him".

Thermal

02-10-2009, 19:47

I would pick (If i wanted to win):

-Chaotix (he rarely gets lynched early, i think he could weave himself through a few rounds at least)
-Andres (similiar to above really)

Maybe

-reenk (same reason as above the above above)
-seamus (same reason as the above of the aboved that was aboved above)

For those that would dominate me are mad and madder, as they though I am the most unreliable person ever, thats if you'd want me to live for very long anyway. :clown:

LittleGrizzly

02-10-2009, 19:50

Innocent or guilty I shall haunt his posts for a while

Haunt away! i have nothing to hide!!

apart from this...

Im scum! :laugh4:

Anyway... Its hard to know how much attention to pay to possible godfather picks, the reason for picking them is also a reason against picking them... which can then in turn become a reason to pick them...

For example sasaki... sasaki is highly skilled mafia player so a great pick... for that reason he's a terrible pick because everyone will suspect him... and for that reason he's a great pick becuase no-one would ever pick him...

or Jolt... is a relative newcomer to mafia (i think ? if not disregard the rest of what i write) so because he hasn't played much mafia you may think he's a terrible choice... that infact makes him a great choice as people would think mafia would not pick him... which in turn makes him a terrible choice because people would think that godfather would think noonbe would suspect him

and i think this continues through all players... i think players not to pick would be like ATPG who gets lynched... and i hear beefy has a reputation for being lynched early also ?

For this reason i don't put too much into potential picks as you can go round in roudabouts with the different logic they may have used for thier decision...

Though i have to say... whilst were going for the godfather's pick mid level players would seem like the obvious choices... not going to the extremes of either end, which makes TinCow's list make some sense... so in summary i think mid level players (of which i am a part :wall:) are likeliest godfather picks...

Thermal

02-10-2009, 20:08

Most suspicious electrical brand : LG

Yes i have my eye on you, my last phone was LG and it broke :wink: one eye as demonstared right here. :bow:

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 20:10

I have a suggestion for the town. Often in these games we get into a situation where there's only a few hours left till deadline and there's one person with three votes, another with 2, and the rest only have one. This happens a lot when people abstain. The problem is, the people who vote in those last few hours are almost forced to consider those top two vote getters as the only two choices. People will say "I don't think X is guilty so I'll vote Y" or "I don't think either is guilty so I'm going to abstain". Now, if we just had a couple active players put up 3 or 4 votes on a lurker at the start of each voting round, we'd always have an "ok to lynch because they don't post enough" option if we didn't like what we came up with during the day. It should also force an lurker mafia to roll the dice each day.

I intend to start with a vote for rythmic, glyphz, or sigurd, and then pursue some other player for questioning.

TinCow

02-10-2009, 20:28

I will support this plan. My preference would be for a vote on Rythmic. I've seen him be very useful as a townie in multiple games in the past. IMO, getting him talking would help the town, regardless of his role.

GeneralHankerchief

02-10-2009, 20:31

Night 3

TinCow was walking his dog down the street, enjoying all the new golden Christmas lights that had been put up in the Gameroom by shlin28. He was too engulfed with the golden Christmas lights to notice the red dot on his chest. Luckily there was someone there to point it out too him.
He heard someone screaming "TinCow, Watch Out! There is a red dot on your chest! It's a Sniper!!!"

The man threw TinCow what appeared to be a bulletproof vest, and he put it on without much thought. Not noticing that it was a vest covered with C-4 explosives!

It was too late to take off the vest though, the button was pushed, and TinCow went KABLOOEE!
A laser pointer and a business hat was found at the scene of the crime, along with the words "BEEFED" branded into his severed head.

Chief of Police shlin28 knew nothing of this until much later in the day, as he was busy preparing for the daily execution. "Always be prepared" was one of his many mottos, and besides, even if the mafia were really and truly gone... well... this sort of thing had always been a hobby for him anyway.

This time, unlike the past two days, the lynch would take place in the Gameroom Park, where the nude man on the unicycle was riding back and forth, juggling, keeping an eye on things, and the man with the boombox was blasting out "Woke Up This Morning" by Alabama Three.

After a while, shlin finished his job and whipped out a flare gun, firing it into the air. He then sat and waited as the entire village, minus TinCow, filed its way into the Park.

"All right," he mused when everyone had arrived. "Looks like we're down TinCow. Too bad, this execution is gonna be pretty cool. He would have liked it, I'm sure.

"Anyway!" he shouted to the crowd, catching them by surprise. "You're gonna vote again. The person with the most votes will enter this little salt hut I have made, complete with windows."

Everyone raised their eyebrows. A salt hut? While the amount of salt in itself was impressive, nobody saw the connection between the person entering the hut and then dying.

"The person and the hut will then be forklifted into the Gameroom pond we have here," shlin continued. "Then, judging by that person's choice, either physics or biology will take over. Get voting!"

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (21)
shlin28
YLC
777Ares777
Andres
TevashSzat
Quintus.JC
Rythmic
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Sigurd
Reenk Roink
glyphz
187Beefyz
taka
Seamus Fermanagh
Jolt
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Ignoramus
Askthepizzaguy
Sasaki Kojiro

Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow

Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter

seireikhaan

02-10-2009, 20:32

:laugh4:

TinCow

02-10-2009, 20:33

Or perhaps I won't...

FYI, that kill write-up was stolen from Chicago Soiree, and IIRC, even there it was stolen from a previous game. Be careful of assuming that we got one of the grunts because of only one murder. Unless the spate of kills continues at one per night for a while, I would assume they're laying low to intentionally throw us off.

[edit]Original version of the kill write-up (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=1332487&postcount=194) (Rise of the Mob game). GH was the victim, and Reenk Roink and Proletariat were the mafioso.

Chicago Soiree version of the kill write-up (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2112674&postcount=540). Reenk Roink was the victim, and Sigurd and boudica were the mafioso. This kill write-up was used ironically, as Reenk Roink had earlier stated this was the exact way he wanted White_eyes to die (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2111568&postcount=455). WE later claimed the use of this kill write-up was an attempt to frame him.

IMO, the person ripped it from Soiree because this version ends with "A laser pointer and a business hat..." which is logical substitute for the Soiree ending of "A laser pointer and a fedora..." In comparison, the Rise of the Mob ending just had "A laser pointer..." with no headgear of any kind.

Andres

02-10-2009, 20:49

Vote : Sigurd

Sasaki's suggestion makes sense and Sigurd should quit this lurker style of playing. In fact, he has lurked enough to lynch him anyway, regardless of how much he posts in this round.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 20:50

Vote:YLC

I know I said I was going to vote for rythmic/glyphz/sigurd but at least at first glance the fact that there was only one kill changes things somewhat. I'll have to go back and review, it may be that we should hold off one day before lynching someone based on that, so this vote is temporary. YLC does come off looking bad to me though.

I suppose I'll stick with the plan and put my vote on sigurd while taking a hard look at ylc:

unvote:YLC

Vote:Sigurd

Andres

02-10-2009, 20:54

Our mafiosi seem to be a bunch of copycats.

According to GH's commentary (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=1302389&postcount=1021) there was only one kill in The Godfather 2 on night 3.

boudica

02-10-2009, 21:11

I think Sigurd would be an excellent choice to lynch: He's playing in exactly the same way as he did in the last few games and even using the same kill description again is so ridiculously WIFOM-TIKAL (Wine-In-Front-Of-Me-That-I-Know-And-Love) that I think he's just crazy enough to do it.

Apologies btw if my question regarding hypothetical godfather decisions was a little off-topic. I was just attempting to get people to post more.. make mistakes .. that kind of thing :laugh4:

I'm not sold on Sasaki being innocent. He seems very calm and collected His proffered plan - while it is one I would condone and adopt if still alive - is actually just as mafia-friendly as it is town.

Without wishing to be too flippant though, CoP shlins' 'Caligula'esque reign is continuing unquestioned, and funny as it is I would also support a motion to lynch him and put someone else in his place. There is every chance that some of the fore-runners for the post initially dropped out (Reenk & ATPG?) as a result perhaps of shlin choosing them as Soldiers?

The ensuing election for a new CoP should also bring more evidence to bear.

My lynch targets right now are ATPG, Sigurd, shlinn and Sasaki

I never actually thought to check if the dead could post or not... I assume I'm not offending anybodies religious sensibilities, so I shall continue. FIngers crossed Lord Winter was scum and we are on our way.

GeneralHankerchief

02-10-2009, 21:12

Just a note, all three mafiosi were in place before voting for Chief of Police began.

Andres

02-10-2009, 21:16

I'm not sold on Sasaki being innocent. He seems very calm and collected His proffered plan -

:inquisitive:

Ok, that's it. I'm building a Sasaki-shrine right now and will charge a 50,00 € entrance fee for those wanting to worship him Him near said shrine. Near the exit, I will also sell Sasaki T-shirts, pins, pencils and the violent "Sasaki in Osaka" video game.

~;p

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 21:20

I think that was just a missing period, not an indication of godliness Andres :laugh4:

Besides, the only requirement to enter the shrine is a recital of Rule #1.

TinCow

02-10-2009, 21:32

I definitely think that the choice of that particular kill write-up is useful. It wasn't a random choice, that write-up had been specifically used as WIFOM bait in Soiree, where it was already plagiarised. The odds of someone who was not in that game being aware of it are relatively low in my opinion. That doesn't narrow the field down much, since almost all living players were in Soiree, but it does add some weight of innocence to those were were not in that game. Those people are:

Rythmic
*Seamus Fermanagh
Jolt
Ignoramus
*Sasaki Kojiro

Seamus and Sasaki have asterisks because I would not put it past them to search through games they did not play to find just such a great WIFOM inducing write-up. However, I still think it's likely that these copycat write-ups were used only after some initial fears of being IDed via writing style after N1. Neither Sasaki or Seamus fit that profile, so I would still count this as evidence in their favor, just not as much in their favor as for the other three.

Note that the above should only be read in relation to the grunt who killed last night. All of the above are still fair game for the Godfather.

shlin28

02-10-2009, 21:41

Er... is it possible that Lord Winter WAS mafia and so we only had one kill today?

Or maybe one mafia was just inactive...

:dizzy2:

Edit: Stated the obvious lol, I say we look at who defended LW.

Edit 2: I say that we look on the bright side and find if anyone is defending LW, than being pessimists and think there is still 3 mafia. I don't like using post behaviour to nail people.... voting pattern is much better.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 21:43

As far as voting goes, I think the best play is to not make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia. We can't let the mafia trade one night kill for an easy lynch + two more night kills. If we wait until tomorrow they'll have to forgo another kill, and we get a lynch today that isn't based on it. That's why I'm sticking my vote on Sigurd for now.

************

If we do make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia (which I would be inclined to believe), then a couple people start to look scummy. First is YLC.

Connection with Lord Winter: possible anxious response upon my questioning of Lord Winter. The set of posts are linked to in this (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128359&postcount=295) post of his. His accusation is that Lord Winter and I are inventing something to argue over. He appears to stand quite strongly (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128976&postcount=326) behind this accusation, and leads of the next day of voting with a vote for me. In that light his abandonment of his case and the reversal (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2131508&postcount=433) of his previous position is suspicious. His vote tied lord winter with me. Now, the mafia know that after one of them is lynched it will be revealed to a certain extent the next day (the town will still have to consider that it is a mafia trick). So under what circumstances would they attack a partner in order to make themselves look more innocent? This part doesn't look too bad for YLC. Lord Winter was not a guaranteed lynch, YLC's vote contributed significantly to his lynching. But that is in hindsight. At the time, who know how many votes LW was going to get?

The other mark against YLC comes from the tiebreaker voting. He seemed to be in a hurry (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128298&postcount=285) to end the tiebreaker. When he thought it was a revote he wanted me lynched, when he thought it was a runoff and his vote would end it he switched to Seamus. He voted Seamus again in the 2nd tiebreak of sorts. His reasoning for these votes is sketchy, something about a "little voice in his head" and my post about lord winter.

In summary, his reasoning behind his votes is scant and his willingness to string anyone up and completely reverse his position is scummy, and becomes doubly so if we assume Lord Winter was mafia.

After writing this out I'm tempted to ignore the patient approach and vote for ylc now, but I think I'll wait to see what he says before deciding that.

TinCow

02-10-2009, 21:49

Edit: Stated the obvious lol, I say we look at who defended LW.

I disagree. Don't get distracted by the classic mafia ploy to kill fewer than they have to. If LW really was mafioso, we'll know it eventually because the double kills will never return. I would only give the LW-was-mafioso theory serious credibility if we get 3+ nights of single kills. For now, I think it's only worth mentioning if there is decent evidence against someone for other reasons AND that person happened to display protective tendencies towards him or aggressive tendencies against whoever was LW's competition for the lynch. Keep working on normal methods. The LW theory will be just as useful later on as it is now, but we risk missing the forest for the trees if we focus in on this particular aspect right now.

shlin28

02-10-2009, 21:54

Meh, I suppose...If that is the case, I say that it is a relatively experienced mafia pulling this off, as few "newbies" would pull that off.

TinCow

02-10-2009, 21:57

Sigurd

02-10-2009, 22:14

Voting me to keep me afloat is not necessary guys. I have no role.

I must object to the accusations of me being a lurker. The game has barely begun and have 21 living players. This is your sole case against me if I am not mistaken. Ergo I think it is a invented accusation to "help" me stay off the Mafia radar.
I am not the detective should anyone think so.

Sasaki is making a case against YLC and I find it interesting. Why not?

vote: YLC.

I have not forgotten rule #1 and sooner or later we will have to take that discussion. But not yet. The game is still young.

Seamus Fermanagh

02-10-2009, 22:19

Vote: Sigurd

Siggy old bean, your post count and unverbose posting style is very much in line with mafia play by you, as recently demonstrated. Let us hear your perspective please.

Tincow:

I am now willing to view you as innocent...:devilish:...so, to add to your point regarding me and the "lifting" of previous methods. YES, I could use that as a theme, and I do love themes in mafia gaming. However, my sense of the dramatic would demand that I narrate the perps as making a purposeful homage to the previous methods. If you scan my kill summaries in capo or my efforts with the biblical murders when mafioso (I forget the fame number), you'll see what I mean.

The sharpest part about the whole thing is that it DOES serve to minimize "style" pickups in the kill writeups. A shrewd move by our mafiosi. One of the team, at least, is not an impulsive player.

Sigurd

02-10-2009, 22:33

Vote: Sigurd

Siggy old bean, your post count and unverbose posting style is very much in line with mafia play by you, as recently demonstrated. Let us hear your perspective please.

Hehe... I nearly edited you post. I wondered why there was no quote tags.

I don't have much to contribute with yet.
I think we did a mistake by rushing out to analyse the writeups after night one. A smart Mafia moves with the flow and cover their tracks if they sense the bloodhounds on their heels.
We should have waited a few more rounds before scrutinising the write up texts.

I voted YLC to see if Sasaki's accusations would make YLC talk. Apparently he will sit tight as long as someone else is being lynched.

My take on the choice of the latest kill, is that the Mafia wants attention. I have a small suspicion, but I am going to sit on it and make it mature a bit.

Lynching me would only rob me of a vote. I am sure the kills will be back up at two a round soon enough and I can continue as a confirmed innocent.

TinCow

02-10-2009, 22:33

Tossing more stuff out there to ponder. GH has been intentionally including the nude juggler guy and the boombox guy in each night phase write-up. Every day, the boombox guy is playing a different song, and it is always bolded. Perhaps this is GH giving us some sort of clue, as it seems like a strange detail to add otherwise. The songs so far:

"Karn Evil 9, First Impression, Part 2" by Emerson, Lake, and Palmer
Perry Mason by Ozzy Osbourne
"Woke Up This Morning" by Alabama Three

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 22:42

I voted YLC to see if Sasaki's accusations would make YLC talk. Apparently he will sit tight as long as someone else is being lynched.

If he doesn't respond to that he'll be lynched pretty soon...

ULC

02-10-2009, 23:06

If he doesn't respond to that he'll be lynched pretty soon...

And? So?

Vote: YLC

I don't think I will be able to contribute much at all anymore, I've been progressively getting busier. Easier to lynch me now while the opportunity stands. I don't think any of you will have a problem with this since it will be easy enough for me to come back, dead or alive, and still contribute at a later date.

Chaotix

02-10-2009, 23:10

I would pick (If i wanted to win):

-Chaotix (he rarely gets lynched early, i think he could weave himself through a few rounds at least)

Well, thank you. I am flattered to think that others actually consider me to be a halfway decent mafia player. In actuality, I believe I've only won a single game as mafia. (although I did come pretty close and fool FactionHeir in Resident Evil...)

Back on topic:

Sigurd is lurking, whether or not he admits it, and this does concern me. However, what may make him look slightly more innocent is the fact that he has been lurking in YLC's mafia game as well- this leads me to believe that he is much less active perhaps for real-life reasons rather than him being scum. This is not to say he couldn't be scum anyway, though.

While I would love to just jump on a bandwagon and vote either Sigurd or YLC now, I realize that I may very well not show up to change it later once the situation turns my extra vote into a lynch decider. For that reason, I will instead vote: Glyphz for lurking and (hopefully) be back later once I make up my mind.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-10-2009, 23:23

Sigurd

02-11-2009, 00:31

True, but how many true n00bs are there in this game? Pretty much everyone on the list has been in enough mafia games to know a basic mafia tactic like intentionally killing fewer people than they could. I'm not saying to completely ignore the evidence, just don't lynch someone exclusively on that basis.

3. Friendliness. Be nice to our new and old players. We should also strive to help new players feel welcome. Words or comments like n00b are specially frowned upon.

Ergo, Concordantly, vis a vis ... :mean:

:smartass2:

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 00:48

TevashSzat

02-11-2009, 00:52

And? So?

Vote: YLC

I don't think I will be able to contribute much at all anymore, I've been progressively getting busier. Easier to lynch me now while the opportunity stands. I don't think any of you will have a problem with this since it will be easy enough for me to come back, dead or alive, and still contribute at a later date.

Now this is a bit strange......Before YLC's self vote, Sigurd had 3 votes on him while YLC only had 1 which was from Sigurd.

A productive and useful townie would actually make a case towards a defence. Trying to state that you're getting really busy so just lynch me is a bad idea since the town would be wasting a lynch and you could just go get WOGed later on if your activity stays truly low....

Also, just because you were lynched doesn't mean that you're innocent. Don't try to say the mafiosos won't do so because that just leads to WIFOM.

Anyways, I will Vote:YLC for now.

Edit: updating tally

Tally:

Sigurd: 3 (Sasaki, Andres, Seamus)
YLC: 3 (Tevash, Sigurd, YLC)

Glyphz: 1 (Chaotix)
Taka: 1 (Beefy)

LittleGrizzly

02-11-2009, 00:54

you missed a vote for glyphz off chaotix, need a little more time for my vote... will give it in a bit..

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 00:56

taka

02-11-2009, 01:06

Vote: Taka

Pressure vote until some other juicy suspects comes up.

I think Taka got too much of a innocent scent on him. But as long as he lurks and posts enough to avoid the WoGs, he got a good chance of victory if he is a mafia.

:laugh4: just like in your game?

i've not read thru the thread but assuming that last night had only one kill means that its better for us as we have more time to suss out the other mafia. Or cast more scummyness on each other :dizzy2:

ULC

02-11-2009, 01:12

Defend myself? Why on earth would I defend myself? And allowing a dead player to take my place or another person to take it can change the dynamic of the game - I'm not just a statistic, I am a dynamic player.

My innocence or guilt is not really the question after death, it's whether or not I can actually be helpful. According to Reenk, I am a vengeful dead player who becomes spiteful if lynched (and continues playing). This means as town, I will become unhelpful. As mafia, I wouldn't be helpful to begin with. In either case, after death I am not helpful.

WoG's and Lynches influence the game in different ways. Lynches minimize casualties compared to WoG's. If I am lynched, it's better for the town then to simply let someone become WoGged. Statistically speaking, it is in fact better to lynch the inactive players then active ones from night 3 onwards. Simply sitting back and waiting for someone to get WoGged is a reactive rather then a active strategy. Since we are the ones in a deficit of knowlegde, that would be a losing strategy.

Now, to get those votes off of Sigurd

Unvote: YLC
Vote: Sigurd

TinCow

02-11-2009, 02:12

Ergo, Concordantly, vis a vis ... :mean:

:smartass2:

Eh... but I was saying that people weren't n00bs...

LittleGrizzly

02-11-2009, 02:13

I will vote Jolt for reasons gven yesterday and his response to those reasons...

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 02:22

If my skill of remembering with out the write ups are correct then taka is the only player who fits the category of the lurker.

Other players has above 10 posts.

Unvote: taka

I'll do a little search on how Jolt and Glyphz has been acting..

Sasaki Kojiro

02-11-2009, 03:05

Defend myself? Why on earth would I defend myself?

Is this a trick question?

If I am lynched, it's better for the town then to simply let someone become WoGged.
Now, to get those votes off of Sigurd

Unvote: YLC
Vote: Sigurd

Lynching is the only way for the town to kill the mafia and we only have so many chances. Each one is precious. In Capo II we had 20 townies WoG'd, your saying it would have been better for the town if we'd lynched them all instead? The town would have lost the game badly*. I also don't see why you'd vote yourself and talk about how it's better to lynch you and then turn around and vote to save yourself. Doesn't make sense for a townie to play this way.

*by that I mean even more badly than they did :tongue3:

Tally:

Sigurd: 4 (Sasaki, Andres, Seamus, YLC)
YLC: 2 (Tevash, Sigurd)

Glyphz: 1 (Chaotix)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 03:46

ULC

02-11-2009, 04:21

Is this a trick question?

Lynching is the only way for the town to kill the mafia and we only have so many chances. Each one is precious. In Capo II we had 20 townies WoG'd, your saying it would have been better for the town if we'd lynched them all instead? The town would have lost the game badly*. I also don't see why you'd vote yourself and talk about how it's better to lynch you and then turn around and vote to save yourself. Doesn't make sense for a townie to play this way.

*by that I mean even more badly than they did :tongue3:

Tally:

Sigurd: 4 (Sasaki, Andres, Seamus, YLC)
YLC: 2 (Tevash, Sigurd)

Glyphz: 1 (Chaotix)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)

First, no, I never defend myself, just my arguments. Saying I am a townie does not make me a townie, since I would lack proof of to back the statement "I am innocent".

Indeed, but statistically speaking, to preserve numbers, it is more efficient to kill lurkers. Say we have 20 people - 10 are active, 10 are lurking, giving a 50% activity rate. If we lynch a Lurker, and 2 townies die, we achieve a 47-59% activity rate, depending on whom is killed. If, on the other hand, we lynch an active player, and 2 townies die, then we only have a 41-52% activity rate, which is a 6-7% difference. Since mafia tend to aim for active players, one should look at low end figures for activity rate.

That may seem in contradiction of what I have previously argued (Ichigo). It is in fact not so, since I am of the opinion that one can only consider another person "Lurking" after Night 3, which is basically 2 days of inactivity. Ichigo had not yet fulfilled that descriptor.

I voted Sigurd in the hopes that you would see the nonsensical move as bad townie behavior. Bad townie behavior results obtaining votes and people switching their votes from the more helpful member. I perceive Sigurd as innocent, and wish to die, ergo, by playing the "bad townie card", votes would move from Sigurd to me, saving Sigurd and lynching me, thus accomplishing my goals. If this does not result in saving Sigurd, then I will continue to do whatever I deem fit to accomplish my goals.

:bow:

ULC

02-11-2009, 04:24

I second Sasakis comment.

YLC you played enough game to know that lynching is valuable and are the only way to get rid of the mafia. If you are innocent you wouldn't dare get your self lynched would you?

Be aware that you are creating a WIFOM situation by saying I am innocent or guilty. If I am innocent, then why would I behave badly? If I were guilty, why would I behave badly? Both of those suppositions will only lead to WIFOM. It's better to analyze motive, then intent. Always ask why, not whatfor.

taka

02-11-2009, 04:29

only mafia use the term wifom to confuse people. the common townie (like myself) should not be using the term as it is bad practice. are you mafia?

ULC

02-11-2009, 04:36

Another bad practice is to ask innocence or guilt, taka, since neither can be answered truthfully, and to ask it based upon analyzing behavior is another way to create WIFOM. "Why would he act terribly?" is the more effective question, since it analyzes the person's motive, rather then asking a rhetorical, circular series of questions., and can have a definitive reaction and response to it.

To go further, you state you are a townie - where is your proof that you are innocent? What supporting facts or logical path of thought can be used to prove your statement that you are a "common townie"?

Sasaki Kojiro

02-11-2009, 04:44

ULC

02-11-2009, 04:47

People like atpg and ylc make me wish I had a vigilante role...

Mafia is more fun if you treat it as a communal effort, trust me.

YLC, if you are town, you may have dug yourself deep enough that the town will lynch you before the game is over. In that case you'd be correct in that it's better now than in a late round. But you have no basis to argue that Sigurd is innocent--it's not hard to appear innocent for 3 rounds and 15 posts, that's why we hardly ever catch mafia this early.

It's simply my opinion that Sigurd is innocent - thus not set in stone nor fact, and can therefore be argued. If you wish to debate over the merits of Sigurd versus me, do so, however, I have obviously stacked things in Sigurd's favor. It is my opinion, and I am willing to die for it.

But to go on what you said - It's also hard to argue that Sigurd is guilty :wink:

taka

02-11-2009, 04:59

the question i asked was not a question to be answered - it is a question to remind yourself of who you are. if you are indeed a townie then i would suggest that you stop this wifom thing because atm it makes you horribly scummy in terms of behaviour. i personally do not take in wifom as its just a on-going loop of gibberish.

and yes, i have no proof that i am townie, neither has any of the other players playing. but at least i dont act scummy to try to confuse the already confused town

Chaotix

02-11-2009, 05:12

:mean:

YLC, why bother signing up and playing the game in the first place if you're just going to be uncooperative and try to get yourself killed? It's a waste of a sign-up, and now this is going to be a waste of a lynch, too, because the mafia is getting of scot-free this round.

All the attention's drawn onto you, and the mafia doesn't have to hide at all, because their behavior, even is poor, would probably make them look like saints standing next your general behavior in the thread. I generally don't like to go and bash players like this, but for this game at least you are worse than useless because of all of your deliberate WIFOM and self-votes and suicidal tendencies. Do you even want your side to win? Mafia or Town, you're not doing a very good job of helping your team.

Unvote, Vote: YLC

Now you must die, and next round we can get back to lynching mafiosi.

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 05:19

I just suggested that you should consider suicide, and if thats not allowed at least ask for someone to replace you. Last thing we want is lynching a innocent, and second worst thing is a lurker mafia winning. I merely suggested a alternative way to solve your inactivity rather then getting your self lynched.

ULC

02-11-2009, 05:28

White_eyes:D

02-11-2009, 05:33

[I]Night 3

TinCow was walking his dog down the street, enjoying all the new golden Christmas lights that had been put up in the Gameroom by shlin28. He was too engulfed with the golden Christmas lights to notice the red dot on his chest. Luckily there was someone there to point it out too him.
He heard someone screaming "TinCow, Watch Out! There is a red dot on your chest! It's a Sniper!!!"

The man threw TinCow what appeared to be a bulletproof vest, and he put it on without much thought. Not noticing that it was a vest covered with C-4 explosives!

It was too late to take off the vest though, the button was pushed, and TinCow went KABLOOEE!
A laser pointer and a business hat was found at the scene of the crime, along with the words "BEEFED" branded into his severed head.
:cry: why this write-up....??? there were hundreds of others.....WHY this one?:furious3:
I feel SO used again.....I am not going to help lynch anyone.....(as I did in that game...lynching TinCow that game.....what a fool I was:dizzy2:) If Reenk or Sigurd, did this....they are truly evil...:no:
and YLC ALWAYS uses WIFOM.....its his trademark move....:thumbsdown:

Sasaki Kojiro

02-11-2009, 05:41

You know, we can still lynch sigurd this round...

eh, probably no getting around the ylc lynch. Who's to say he isn't mafia? Be nice if we had a vigilante though.

Chaotix

02-11-2009, 05:45

Unvote: Sigurd
Vote: YLC

I am simply employing a logical course that would want you to lynch me over Sigurd, that's all. It happens to be working. And Chaotix, when have I ever been a good townie? When have I ever claimed anything less then that I am a poor player?

In any case, good luck town. You have several excellent players alive, that can and will win this for you, if you but try - victory is derived from effort and truly wanting it.

A truly poor player would be one who doesn't try to improve. As long as you are actively pursuing your victory condition, you are decent enough in my book- this here is me paraphrasing your own words. Regardless, I am not criticizing you as a player, but only your performance this game.

Honestly, what it looks like here is that you are very busy- you simply have no time to play this game as well as manage your own game and deal with real-life issues as well. Believe me when I say I have been in this position before, where you literally can't spare ten minutes without sacrificing doing something else.

If this is the case, there are better ways of removing yourself from the game then trying to get yourself lynched. You are too innocent to waste a lynch on, but you have also made yourself too suspicious to be left a few turns for the WoG. If you are truly town, then you should pm GH explaining why you can't play anymore, and suicide. That way, you've confirmed yourself innocent, you don't have to play anymore, we don't have to worry about you possibly lurking along and being mafia, and most of all, we still get a lynch for today, instead of it being used to kill you off. This is the best course of action.

:bow:

ULC

02-11-2009, 05:47

You know, we can still lynch sigurd this round...

You could, but the logical move would be to eliminate me - however, not only do I hold majority vote at this point, but your currently voting for Sigurd, not me, so you can't really influence it unless you can convince two people currently voting for me to begin voting Sigurd on less stable reasoning, drawing suspicion unto yourself - in fact, why would Sasaki Kojiro be so intent to save YLC, who is doing nothing but spewing WIFOM and long winded, empty posts to distract the town, but not Sigurd?

ULC

02-11-2009, 05:56

A truly poor player would be one who doesn't try to improve. As long as you are actively pursuing your victory condition, you are decent enough in my book- this here is me paraphrasing your own words. Regardless, I am not criticizing you as a player, but only your performance this game.

Honestly, what it looks like here is that you are very busy- you simply have no time to play this game as well as manage your own game and deal with real-life issues as well. Believe me when I say I have been in this position before, where you literally can't spare ten minutes without sacrificing doing something else.

If this is the case, there are better ways of removing yourself from the game then trying to get yourself lynched. You are too innocent to waste a lynch on, but you have also made yourself too suspicious to be left a few turns for the WoG. If you are truly town, then you should pm GH explaining why you can't play anymore, and suicide. That way, you've confirmed yourself innocent, you don't have to play anymore, we don't have to worry about you possibly lurking along and being mafia, and most of all, we still get a lynch for today, instead of it being used to kill you off. This is the best course of action.

:bow:

However, I do not Sigurd lynched. To make sure Sigurd is not lynched, I have to intentionally do something to prevent that. If I were to not be lynched, then Sigurd would be.

And Chaotix, sorry, but how on earth do you come up with the idea I am innocent? And I am also sorry for manipulating all of you to do this, but in my opinion it has to be done unless someone can point out the pros of lynching Sigurd.

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 06:05

Gaius Scribonius Curio

02-11-2009, 06:32

To begin with, I find it somewhat interesting that the kill from last night was also 'ripped-off' from elsewhere. The fact that it was WIFOM to begin with probably added to its allure to the mafiosi. However, I believe Tincow claimed that this makes it likely that it was part of a plan. This could well be the case, but due to its late appearance, it could be that the mafioso is still improvising, and by not reverting to his own writing after discovery is trying to further complicate things. Even more likely, a more experianced mafioso or Godfather has seized upon this as a plan after the fact. I believe that the latter situation makes the most sense.

On the topic of Sigurd, he doesn't seem to be too suspicious. That said he has recently lurked his way to a stunning victory (with Boudica) in Chicago Soiree. Nothing in his relatively few posts has been worthy of much attention, but that could indicate an avoidance of dangerous topics, in keeping with a mafiosi influenced agenda. Certainly a worthy target.

YLC's behaviour seems very strange. Sticking himself up for death rather than suiciding would firstly waste a lynch (were he a legitimate townie), and also distract some of the town from attempting to find a mafioso this phase. Also his attempt to protect Sigurd makes little sense, unless Sigurd were the Godfather, and he a grunt. However, the protection this provides would only last until the next round where increased pressure would be applied to the recipient of such a convenient reprieve.

As such I believe that YLC should be forced to suicide rather than him forcing the town to use up a lynch, and will for the moment;

Vote: Sigurd Fafnesbane

glyphz

02-11-2009, 06:42

YLC... :inquisitive:
To defend Sigurd and present yourself as a better lynch (& getting the majority) is admirable, however, ironically enough, your behavior is giving me the vibes that you are less suspicious than Sigurd.

Vote: Sigurd

Tally:

Sigurd: 5 - Sasaki Kojiro, Andres, Seamus Fermanagh, Gaius Scribonius Curio, glyphz

YLC: 4 - TevashSzat, Sigurd, Chaotix27, YLC

Jolt: 1 - LittleGrizzly

Ignoramus

02-11-2009, 06:54

Vote: YLC

taka

02-11-2009, 07:13

since u sooo want to get yourself lynched

vote: sigurd

just coz u dont want him to be lynched

naut

02-11-2009, 07:16

Ok, I understand why Sasaki went after YLC from post #560+, but after that when everyone else jumped aboard? Seems far, far too convenient. The venom in some of the posts to me felt vastly unwarranted. But, I don't think lynching YLC is a particularly bad vote, since he wants to die anyway.

On the subject of lurkers, two things I'd like to touch on. Firstly, the game started close to a weekend, weekends are hectic in terms of family and RL events so I don't think it's a surprise we had so many abstains last round, I'm sure plenty of people were simply recovering from their weekend exploits. Secondly, despite this being a WIFOM, I don't think many of the lurkers would have the time to trawl through old threads to find old write ups. I know I certainly don't, but nonetheless you can't discard them as suspects since the Godfather may be doing the research for his grunts and passing on his choices to them.

I think we did a mistake by rushing out to analyse the writeups after night one. A smart Mafia moves with the flow and cover their tracks if they sense the bloodhounds on their heels.
We should have waited a few more rounds before scrutinising the write up texts.
Agreed. We've been making it too easy for them to cover up any mistakes they've been making.

Reenk Roink

02-11-2009, 07:16

naut

02-11-2009, 07:19

I have to put my vote on Beefy. The way he jumped to attack YLC seemed very agressive.

Vote: Beefy

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 07:38

I have to put my vote on Beefy. The way he jumped to attack YLC seemed very agressive.

Vote: Beefy

Attacked? Attacked how? I didn't even vote for him!

I only suggested to suicide or get replaced rather then wasting a lynch for him!

Sigurd

02-11-2009, 10:14

Andres

02-11-2009, 10:24

However, I do not Sigurd lynched. To make sure Sigurd is not lynched, I have to intentionally do something to prevent that. If I were to not be lynched, then Sigurd would be.

And Chaotix, sorry, but how on earth do you come up with the idea I am innocent? And I am also sorry for manipulating all of you to do this, but in my opinion it has to be done unless someone can point out the pros of lynching Sigurd.

Eh, wait a minute there. That doesn't make much sense.

If you're a townie, then you're 100 % sure that you're innocent, so your dead won't help your team one bit. You can never know for sure that Sigurd is innocent; indeed, even after an investigation by the detective, the Godfather will turn out to be "innocent".

So, as a townie, when given the choice of lynching yourself (100 % chance innocent) or another player (small chance of being guilty), then the other player should be lynched.

So, from the perspective of the team (and in mafia, it's all about the team, not the individual), it doesn't make sense to be willing to die.

Two other things: a) why would anyone be willing to die instead of another player in this game? In this game, the only ones having a really good reason to be lynched instead of another player, are the grunts wanting to get lynched to save their godfather; b) voting yourself is a cunning move, a last minute vote switch can easily tip the balance when you're in the lead with another player.

Considering a), your behaviour makes me want to stick to my vote for Sigurd.

LittleGrizzly

02-11-2009, 10:29

Firstly I have to say i feel a little ucomfortable that we are going by sasaki's suspects, YLC he built a case against, and then Sigurd he mentioned in his list and voted for. Since that post YLC and Sigurd have been the only ones in the running, not that sasaki is definetely scum but i always thinks its a bit dangerous to have one person basically setting the tone for the possible lynches, this is part of the reason i stuck with my Jolt vote as a means to offer an alternative..

Secondly YLC your attitude stinks, the town is supposed to work together but you seem determined to work against it, whatever you think of Sigurd you now for sure your 100% innocent (assuming you aren't the mafia) and thus you should actively try to stay alive for the sake of the town, the only good reason to sacrifice yourself is to save some kind of power town role....

I think if your aim is to keep Sigurd alive, you have failed and actively encouraged some people to work against you and lynch Sigurd. If you are scum and your aim is to prove your innocence, again you have failed, you have proven your a bad townie and will probably be lynched at some point when were struggling to think off good lynch targets, and this is where we shall waste a valuable lynch if you are not scum..

so a bad townie or some very risky mafia play...

ULC

02-11-2009, 10:33

Andres

02-11-2009, 10:37

*sighs* Ah, the inablility and blindness of others sometimes. It's all well and good though.

I bet the mafia are sure they are 100% innocent as well too. In fact, everyone is innocent, just ask them. My being innocent to myself does nothing, proves nothing, and should not be used in anyway shape or form to decide my own actions, since it obviously has no barring on others as well.

Ehm, so, if you're own behaviour seems scummy to you, you're going to vote yourself, even if you know for sure that you're innocent?

:inquisitive:

That doesn't help your team, now does it?

If you think Sigurd is innocent and if you know you're innocent yourself, then why don't you take a look at other possible suspects? If you would stop focusing on yourself, the accusations against you and Sigurd, and read the posts to find a suspect, then who seems the most suspicious to you?

That would be more helpful than just sighing :shrug:

ULC

02-11-2009, 10:39

*pokes* Like I said, blind. And it is good you remain so.

LittleGrizzly

02-11-2009, 10:41

*sighs* Ah, the inablility and blindness of others sometimes. It's all well and good though.

For someone who thinks of themself as a bad player you sure seem to think you now a lot better than everyone else...

I bet the mafia are sure they are 100% innocent as well too.

Anyone you ask will tell you they are innocent...

My being innocent to myself does nothing, proves nothing, and should not be used in anyway shape or form to decide my own actions, since it obviously has no barring on others as well.

Noone can know who is innocent and who is not, if you are just a regular townie you can only ever be sure of your own innocence, and that is why you never sacrifice yourself for another (unless you strongly believe they are a power role) because whilst you are 100% sure of your innocence considering sigurd's limited contributions you can be nowhere near as sure of sigurd's innocence...

So you are basically (assuming your a townie) lynching a gaurenteed innocent to save someone who you 'think' isn't mafia...

Which is.... bad play...

Andres

02-11-2009, 10:47

*pokes* Like I said, blind. And it is good you remain so.

By all means, open my eyes. Through pm if necessary.

naut

02-11-2009, 10:48

Attacked? Attacked how? I didn't even vote for him!

I only suggested to suicide or get replaced rather then wasting a lynch for him!
Yes, your right. I got you mixed up with taka somehow.

Unvote Vote: taka

Beefy187

02-11-2009, 13:22

Yes, your right. I got you mixed up with taka somehow.

Unvote Vote: taka

Well in that case, sorry for the ! s.. I realised that came out bit more agressive then I intended it to be.

TinCow

02-11-2009, 13:30

YLC, you put forth interesting mafia philosophy, but it doesn't help the town in any way in the actual game. You are now intentionally and knowingly making things difficult for the town. If you're truly townie, then you're not helping. You're a legit lynch for this reason. You've got no one but yourself to blame for a wasted lynch.

Seamus Fermanagh

02-11-2009, 14:55

YLC:

Voting for yourself is a very WIFOM strategy. I have done it, but only after arguing my innocence for numerous posts as an innocent townie about to be lynched. I was trying, desparately to signal that I was town. I got lynched. "I don't think you should lynch so-and-so, so kill me instead" is a really poor tactic.

The whole point of putting votes on Sigurd was to get him to respond and at length....FOR HIMSELF.

Your parsiflage has re-centered the ENTIRE discussion around you. However, it has not centered on your innocence, guilt or anything else, but on your condescending re-statements about us "not getting it" and the town frustration. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Sigurd:

Not quite sanguine about you yet, but I acknowledge that my only evidence against you -- so far -- has been brevity of posts and a post frequency that matches one of your previous "lurker mafia tactics" games. The real goal for me was to get you engaged and build evidence on you one way or the other. That process has begun, so...

Unvote: Sigurd

However, my post evaluations did not spotlight only Sigurd's behavior. Rythmic, in only 10 posts, has managed to record 6 votes. In fact, he had 5 votes in the first 6 posts. So, why such assiduous attention to not getting wogged without really putting a lot into the discussion?

Vote: Rythmic

Others of interest are Taka for his similar vote but not discuss much approach, and Grizzly/Jolt for the ongoing vote fued. That feud is classic mafia to set up a "but I voted against her/him twice!" defense. No such votes were put out when any REAL pressure might have been exerted.

THoughts?

naut

02-11-2009, 14:57

One word Seamus, hangover. :laugh4:

Also, you may want to bold your vote.

LittleGrizzly

02-11-2009, 15:24

naut

02-11-2009, 15:29

Rythmic... thats a hell of a long hagover...
Three separate hangovers to be precise.

But yes, your correct I was simply voting to avoid a WoG. Because I'd at least be a little useful later on, or at least I hope I am.

Reenk Roink

02-11-2009, 15:32

I am disappointed in you guys. You are lynching a townie for more or less no reason.

The game has not lasted long enough for anyone to be considered a lurker. And your paranoia is getting the better of reason. What happened to start each game with a clean sheet? You are all voting based on the fact that I have been successful in past games which indeed is not at all relevant in this one. It's all argumentum ad antiquitatem.

I will however change my vote to the one I think is responsible.
This all smacks of Reenk craziness :smartass2:
Reenk jumps on the bandwagon giving no reason and at the same time give praises to the mafia. You always like to leave little clues here and there.

unvote: YLC, vote: Reenk Roink

The others voting me for no or at best flimsy reasons will receive scrutiny. Yes I am looking at you taka and Gaius.

Hello Sigurd :bow:

I assure you I care not for the town's bandwagon. Of course I know too well that the charge of lurking is much too early. Also I don't believe it fits. Also, I don't believe you to be one who will use the same tactics.

However, I am not the Mafia Sigurd. I may be crazy but I'm not careless with my life.

Besides, the Godfather would obviously choose the better man. :yes:

Seamus Fermanagh

02-11-2009, 16:10

...Besides, the Godfather would obviously choose the better man. :yes:

But Boudica was already killed....

:devilish:

Jolt

02-11-2009, 16:49

and Grizzly/Jolt for the ongoing vote fued. That feud is classic mafia to set up a "but I voted against her/him twice!" defense. No such votes were put out when any REAL pressure might have been exerted.

I made both those votes when there were a fair few people left to vote, i also though i had decent reasoning behind it and explained my reasoning, i may be tempted to put a vote on a fellow mafia but i wouldn't have the guts to start the voting and questioning of my fellow scum... i think the main thing that really blows this idea out the water is Jolt's reaction, he made himself look kinda scummy with his impassioned defence, if it was a premade play between the two of us i would imagine he would have had a less scummy response...

I have basically sent a fellow mafia to the gallows once in midgaard saga II but at that point alot of suspicion was on sarathos anyway... i will explain in a little more deatil if anyone wants...

Rythmic... thats a hell of a long hagover...

Decent? Pah-leeze. Basing your vote on my already proven non-activity on weekend is hardly any evidence at all. As ATPG well said, I have nothing whatsoever that sheds any suspicion on me (Besides my reaction to stupid motives for lynching me), reading what TinCow well said, the plagarization of the kills from past games is probably the works of someone who has played those games (I don't have the mood or the time to go read past Mafia games, and apparently you have played the games in question, which adds even more heat on your side), and your words "to provide an alternative", (especially with the baseless reasons to have given for my lynch) for the lynch vote makes me suspect that you are indeed one of the henchmen of the Godfather. I'd wish if there is an investigator role, that he investigate LG.

Vote: LittleGrizzly

Although, it'd be damn funny if me and Grizzly were mafia. xD

GeneralHankerchief

02-11-2009, 17:39

Awesome, we have a mid-game name change. :beam:

Just for my reference, Rythmic is now Psychonaut.

Andres

02-11-2009, 17:41

Are the votes on "Rythmic" still valid/being transferred to "Psychonaut" or is change of the username a way to avoid the lynch?

GeneralHankerchief

02-11-2009, 17:42

Of course they're still valid. :yes:

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 18:20

To the extent that this means anything {limited}, Pizza is usually a very heavy poster in mafia games. I'd have to do a post count, but I believe we'd find he's slightly less active when mafia than when town.

I believe so. Seriously, what I am doing, annoying though it may be, as TinCow has pointed out, focuses the discussion on myself.

A suicidal maneuver as a mafia, to be sure. I won't continue with that line of thought today, I feel I exhaustively made my point and will be a little less long winded now that it's out of the way.

I also know me yakking takes away some fun for some people, and as such, I will try to bring it down. I just needed to make my play for this game, which was to try and un-incriminate myself so we can move on to other suspects. I did wait until Chaotix suggested I was scum to do so, but I needed to do it eventually.

Still reading.

I will have to do something about the above, I don't need a big scumtell on myself that everyone knows. Pulling back my posts when townie should do it.

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 18:38

Also, just to make it clear that I don't think that ATPG is guilty, and I certainly don't find his mammoth post count suspicious, I merely know that he is mistaken on the matter of my guilt.

Fair enough. I believe you addressed my concerns in a reasonable enough manner. I can't continue to whip eggs at someone when they keep sliding off.

Maybe I shouldn't boil them so much...

ATPG - you're asking for mafia to kill you and constantly claiming that people are going to lynch you anyway. If I were alive I'd vote for you as I think you're making it easier for mafia.

Your inquisition is great for town, but leave some room between your posts for other people to say something constructive/ incriminate themselves.

Say for instance that every game you play as town you spam the board in order to prove your innocence. At some point when you ARE mafia, it would be a rational strategy to spam the board in order to prove your innocence - that's why I'd vote to lynch you every time you play this way.

Ah, but Boudica, that's a bad reason to vote someone.

A lot of people suggest the same thing about YLC in games I've been in, and he's been mostly innocent. Whether myself and YLC grate on people's nerves or not, or have big discussions or not, the point is to lynch mafia.

And I consider it a matter of opinion whether it's good for town or not, as I've pointed out repeatedly, you can simply ignore my posts and scroll down. I am not taking away opportunities for other people to speak when I do. It's not like we are all sitting together in a room and only one person has the floor, we can have several discussions at once.

That being said, while it suits me to talk as it gives me clues based on people's reactions to me, I understand and it's been suggested that I'm making the game less fun for people, and at the end of the day that's more important than winning I suppose. So, I'm going to seriously start spoilering what I say if it's more than a brief thing, or if it's a conversation.

Out of courtesy and respect for others.

And because of the reason you suggested above, I wouldn't do this as a mafia. It does mean my death, especially if it annoys people. I couldn't find a way to make myself more of a target, and less popular, to the point where people want me dead whether I'm mafia or not.

And that's precisely my point. Chaining myself to the railroad tracks as a train is coming, the equivalent of what I did earlier, is not good mafia play. I'm going to drop it, but you must see my point. And it isn't all about me, and that's another reason why I'm dropping it.

Askthepizzaguy 82 5.85 Ephesus (twn) 4.6 Chicago (twn) 7.19 Fillet (P-twn) 3.24 promo (maf) 3.79

Thank you. Now I know what I have to work on, and that should semi-clear me here.

People like atpg and ylc make me wish I had a vigilante role... Mafia is more fun if you treat it as a communal effort, trust me.

Point taken.

Vote: YLC

Ignoramus is lurking badly, if my quick read-through serves. I will recheck, but I am wondering why more isn't made out of that.

I'll also do a tally if it's helpful. I gotta make up for being annoying somehow.

Quintus.JC

02-11-2009, 18:52

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 18:52

(Bad tally deleted, new tally posted below)

Here's your tally. Apologies for being so wordy. (See below)

I am wondering what the case against Sigurd is, will do more reading to see. I don't believe YLC is acting anything less than like himself. Given the two top candidates, I don't see why my support is necessary.

I want the lurkers gone.

Vote: Ignoramus. (Added to tally above)

Post count as of this post:

Askthepizzaguy 84
GeneralHankerchief 46
Sasaki Kojiro 45
187Beefyz 42
Andres 37
777Ares777 35
TinCow 35
YLC 32
shlin28 24
LittleGrizzly 24
Seamus Fermanagh 22
Reenk Roink 19
White_eyes:D 18
seireikhaan 15
Quintus.JC 15
Sigurd 14
CountArach 13
TevashSzat 12
Chaotix27 12
boudica 12
Psychonaut 12
Gaius Scribonius Curio 12
Lord Winter 12
Jolt 11
Tratorix 9
glyphz 9
taka 7
Ichigo 5
Ignoramus 3

And so therefore, I have my selection. 3 posts is not enough. Not everyone can/should be me, but 3 is far too little a contribution for me to accept from a townie.
_______________

I would also suggest that such a large bandwagon is not necessary. If anything should happen to change your minds, there is no way to prevent lynching either Sigurd or YLC.

naut

02-11-2009, 18:53

Wow, ATPG you post almost four posts a page on average! I barely make a post every three. I feel emasculated. :cry:

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 18:56

I wonder if people should even talk directly to me in the thread. I feel compelled to answer, and I hear from many and totally understand that it's tiresome to see me post so much.

Psychonaut/Rythmic: Don't worry about it. Just contribute to the discussion, vote, and respond to questioning when applicable, and you're doing well in my book. Just give me something to analyze, basically.

Tally above updated to reflect fixing of errors and QJC's vote.

EDIT: Tally above still had errors in it. Doing a hand recount now. :wall:

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 19:15

Tally:

Sigurd: 6 - Sasaki Kojiro, Andres, Gaius Scribonius Curio, glyphz, taka, Reenk Roink

YLC: 5 - TevashSzat, Chaotix27, Ignoramus, QJC, YLC

Jolt: 1 - LittleGrizzly

Taka: 1 - Psychonaut,

Reenk Roink: 1 - Sigurd

Psychonaut (Rythmic): 1 - Seamus Fermanagh

LittleGrizzly: 1 - Jolt

Ignoramus: 1 - Askthepizzaguy

I recounted, because using other people's tallies as a reference led to several errors, my fault.

Will do counts from the top from now on. Feel free to recheck.

I triple-checked the tally. It is a valid tally.

Seamus Fermanagh

02-11-2009, 19:36

We have a lot of players voting without posting more than a minim.

taka, iggy, psycho, even glyphz all fit this profile

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 19:45

TinCow

02-11-2009, 19:56

If you want a deader opinion, lynch YLC. At this point, too much time has expired to bother trying to lynch anyone but Sigurd or YLC. There's no way to move enough votes to make that happen, so it's just a question between the two. Both have had suspicious behavior, but a lot of the early voting on Sigurd was due to his inactivity. The voting has caused him to post several times in response, and I honestly don't see anything in those posts which seems lynch-worthy. Pressure should be kept on Sigurd to remain active in future rounds, but the only reason to lynch him now is his inactivity. That seems to me like people are simply scared of him because of his recent victory, and that is a bad reason to lynch someone.

YLC, on the other hand, has essentially spent the entire day phase spewing WIFOM. That's a perfectly valid reason to lynch him. So, if it comes down to a choice between Sigurd and YLC, I would recommend YLC.

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 19:57

People we can trust (right?)

Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow- Suggests to kill YLC
Ichigo

No trusty (until there's two murders again)
Lord Winter (Probably mafia. By the way, I put the deciding vote on him, so yay me.)

GeneralHankerchief

02-11-2009, 20:00

Voting closed.

I'll start taking PMs now.

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 20:10

I don't think Sigurd was guilty, but we'll see. He should know better than to lurk after his recent games.

I'd be surprised if the mafia didn't murder me tonight. I mean, what if I were the detective and this bluff is keeping you from murdering me? Only way to find out is to kill me.

I've nudged all the dead folks for their opinion in the coming rounds. I suggest we listen to their opinions at the very least. I have reason to believe YLC is innocent, but I do not have proof, and I will not stand in the way of his lynch next round.

Quintus.JC

02-11-2009, 20:11

Lord Winter (Probably mafia. By the way, I put the deciding vote on him, so yay me.)

It's a bit early to tell ain't it?

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 20:13

If the mafia missed a murder, then the next time there are 2 murders, we can trust Lord Winter again.

The mafia missing a murder is hardly a bad thing anyway. They gain nothing by doing an intentional gambit. I don't believe it's proven there are only 2 left, so we should assume that there are 3, but we need to assume we cannot trust Lord Winter to be safe.

If the mafia is intentionally not murdering, that's good for town. If the mafia is Lord Winter, that's also good.

Bottom line: Doesn't matter. It's good for town in all 3 cases. We are safest to ignore Lord Winter until there are 2 murders again.

Quintus.JC

02-11-2009, 20:18

True say, true say.

Inactive mafioso also is a possibility, but what you say makes sense. Less murders at night could only be helpful towards the town.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-11-2009, 20:50

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 20:55

We can still discuss who is the most likely guilty party from the activity so far, the contributions so far, the voting patterns so far, and who else we think is likely chosen as a scumbag, if it turns out Lord Winter is truly scum.

Also, I doubt we will get unanimous consent from the town to use my idea, so, we will have people doing their own thing who we can suspect. I admit the idea isn't foolproof, but what I am saying is that I am willing to vote however way the dead suggest. I am curious to see who else would be, for various reasons.

Just posting the idea should generate discussion for you to dissect, and I will continue to be highly suspicious of the lurkers.

Askthepizzaguy

02-11-2009, 20:56

Hypocritical observation: Good to see you online during night phase again, Sasaki Kojiro.

:laugh2:

edit:
Be back for next voting phase tomorrow.

GeneralHankerchief

02-11-2009, 21:09

Day 4

Everyone was distracted while voting in the Gameroom Park, their attention focused on the large salt hut looming over them and the massive glare it created by reflecting the sun's bright light. Nevertheless, the monolith-like presence of the hut did not distract them from voting, which made the guy with the boombox, observing it all, very glad.

Voting from the start focused on two people: YLC, who seemed to be daring people to vote for him, and Sigurd, who apparently had this shifty look about him. Perhaps it was just the villagers of the Gameroom not being used to his scary black robes as opposed to his usual viking attire. Whatever the reason, Sigurd garnered a lot of votes.

At the end of the day, Chief of Police shlin28, who had been bathing in the pond for most of the day and being accompanied by three beautiful "aides" while doing so, exited the pond, had his "aides" dry him off, and then made his way over to the tally booth, where he read the votes and pointed over at Sigurd.

"You", he said, "get in the hut."

As Sigurd trudged over to the hut, muttering to himself that it was "too early to yell at people for being quiet", shlin skipped over to the forklift, climbing in and starting the engine.

"All right Sigurd," he yelled over the engine, "As previously described, I will now forklift this hut you're in and drop you in the pond. Now, eventually physics will take over and you will slowly be crushed by water and the dissolving salt. However, I am not a cruel overlor-er... Chief of Police," he said, catching himself. "If you manage to get out I will let you live another day... good luck with that, though."

shlin drove the forklift over to the hut, lifted it up, and dropped the whole thing in the pond. While all this was happening, Sigurd was thinking to himself.

"Wow," he said to himself, "I can't believe I have an out! If I can just get free of this hut, I'll live another day! Now, I can't simply swim downward and out, because I don't want to risk blacking out because of the increased pressure... I know! I'll lick my way through!"

And so, as shlin dropped the hut into the pond, Sigurd started licking like he never did before. For a while, it wasn't so bad. But eventually, his tongue got tired. And the salt mixing with water was not a very good combination. He fought through the pain, however, believing that anything was better than death.

As the salt hut around him gradually dissolved both to the natural solvent of the pond water as well as his licking, Sigurd felt a new kind of pain, one that wasn't physical so much as all throughout his body. Grimacing, gasping for air, Sigurd continued to fight. Despite everything, he was making significant progress. The town was all gathered around the pond, watching eagerly to see if he could pull it off.

Time passed. Sigurd, fighting through immense pain, continued licking. The salt hut was all but gone now.

"How much salt do you think he's consumed?" one person asked.

"Dunno, but it can't be healthy," another replied.

The conversation was quickly cut off as somebody gasped. The salt hut was gone. Sigurd was alive, surviving the pressure, and was beginning to swim to the edge of the pond! Sure, his strokes were slow and not really "flowy" at all... but still, he was about to survive a lynch! Despite this, shlin seemed unperturbed that his plan was being thwarted.

As Sigurd's hand reached the grass and gripped dry land, everybody cheered, forgetting that they had condemned him to die only a few hours earlier. The cheering only got louder as the second hand gripped dry land and as Sigurd pulled himself entirely out of the pond.

However, it was not to be. Sigurd stood up, staggered... and then collapsed, sliding back into the pond. This time there was no attempt to get out, and Sigurd floated, motionless, on the water's surface.

"High blood pressure from too much salt intake," shlin explained to the crowd, smirking. "I told him he would either die by physics or biology. He took the biology route. Good night, all."

Day 4 tally:

Sigurd: 6 (Andres, Sasaki Kojiro, Gaius Scribonius Curio, glyphz, taka, Reenk Roink) :skull:
YLC: 5 (Quintus.JC, Chaotix27, TevashSzat, YLC, Ignoramus)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)
taka: 1 (Psychonaut)
Reenk Roink: 1 (Sigurd)
Psychonaut: 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
LittleGrizzly: 1 (Jolt)
Ignoramus: 1 (Askthepizzaguy)

Abstained: 3 (shlin28, 187Beefyz, White_eyes:D)
Didn't vote: 1 (777Ares777)

~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (20)
shlin28
YLC
777Ares777
Andres
TevashSzat
Quintus.JC
Rythmic
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Reenk Roink
glyphz
187Beefyz
taka
Seamus Fermanagh
Jolt
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Ignoramus
Askthepizzaguy
Sasaki Kojiro

Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow

Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter
Sigurd

TinCow

02-11-2009, 21:26

So who do the dead people pick as suspicious when everyone is voting the same way?

Decent lynch options for next round, as far as I am concerned:

YLC - Same reasons as today
ATPG - Playing up his excessive talking as proof of his innocence. Doing this every game doesn't make it less scummy.
Quintus.JC - Happily bandwagoning on multiple votes, without contributing much of substance. Would be a decent pick as a grunt as well.
glyphz - Lurker, get him talking.
taka - Lurker, get him talking.
LittleGrizzly - Jumped on my write-up profile early and has held on for dear life, even after everyone else has moved on to other evidence. Also a decent pick for a grunt.
Ignoramus - Lurker, get him talking

Sasaki Kojiro

02-11-2009, 21:27

I admit the idea isn't foolproof, but what I am saying is that I am willing to vote however way the dead suggest. I am curious to see who else would be, for various reasons.

No one cares about you attempts to prove your own innocence. That's not the job of a townie. Chill out and focus on finding mafia :balloon2:

Andres

02-11-2009, 21:46

Why did you post a green balloon?

Sasaki Kojiro

02-11-2009, 21:55

Why did you post a green balloon?

Green balloons are pretty chill.

LittleGrizzly

02-11-2009, 22:18

Jumped on my write-up profile early and has held on for dear life, even after everyone else has moved on to other evidence. Also a decent pick for a grunt.

It wasn't just the write up... it was the response and retalitory vote and just a general gut feeling... if i had a better suspect i would happily vote for them...

glyphz

02-11-2009, 22:19

glyphz - Lurker, get him talking.
:sweatdrop:

Been around, even during the weekend, so I guess that makes me a lurker. But not because I want to be.
As this is a more of a classic mafia game, there is (at least, so far) little to go with, and have to depend on others theories, speculations, or post/grammar/behavior analysis of others (1 thing I've been proven to be inept at).
One reason, I cannot fault Sigurd for his lack of activity. My only suspicion of him is that he could be likelier to be recruited than others, but that in itself is inconclusive. However, since YLC proved to be willing to be ousted (and almost did) in this game, something a mafia is unlikely to do, there was a need to preserve YLC (for now, at least) and vote for Sigurd and his 1/28 chance of being scum, as there were no alternative options.
In case YLC is scum, the only plausible reason he would protect Sigurd is if he is the Godfather. COnsidering both, Sigurd was my only option.

shlin28

02-11-2009, 22:47

Fear not minio-er... I mean citizens! I have returned!

I see that the random boombox guy has returned... I have two separate crazy theories concerning that:

1. He is random and has no meaning whatsoever.

2. He "likes" us to vote to lynch someone, and due to his general craziness, I say that he wants to be lynched. A "jestor" character if you will.

Out of all the suspects, I suspect YLC (same reasons as before) and ATPG (the more I think the more I get paranoid about him) most.

That's all for now, so good luck next day my fellow minion-er... friends! We shall give the foul murderer the most fantastic execution the history of our fair Gameroom has ever seen!

Thermal

02-11-2009, 23:12

I really wouldn't have voted for sigurd, he came out of Lurking and was still suspiciously seen.
my top suspects:

Ignormous- Backed by ATPG also, severe lurking, only allowing himself to post when he votes, and his vote his round had not a drop of explanation, not even a lousy excuse, mafia like that have been allowed to win far too often, very suspicious.

YLC- Does the notorious 'suicide' vote then changes his vote to sigurd, vica versa, very tiresome, if your gonna suicide vote stick to it at least, plus from what skimming of this post riot ive read your reasoning hasn't been explanatory.

Andres

02-11-2009, 23:44

Green balloons are pretty chill.

Blue balloons are chillier :balloon3:

And a snowman even more ~:snowman:

If you would have really wanted ATPG to chill, you would at least have posted a blue balloon. However, from an experienced player like you, I expected the snowman.

This clearly proves that you are scum and I think we should lynch you the next day.

Obviously, I am proven innocent now, because I detected a mafioso.

Thermal

02-11-2009, 23:53

Sasaki Kojiro

02-12-2009, 00:03

Blue balloons are chillier :balloon3:

And a snowman even more ~:snowman:

If you would have really wanted ATPG to chill, you would at least have posted a blue balloon. However, from an experienced player like you, I expected the snowman.

This clearly proves that you are scum and I think we should lynch you the next day.

Obviously, I am proven innocent now, because I detected a mafioso.

LINK: http://psychology.about.com/od/sensationandperception/a/color_green.htm

# Researchers have also found that green can improve reading ability. Some students may find that laying a transparent sheet of green paper over reading material increases reading speed and comprehension.

# Green has long been a symbol of fertility and was once the preferred color choice for wedding gowns in the 15th-century. Even today, green M & M's (an American chocolate candy) are said to send a sexual message.

# Green is often used in decorating for its calming effect. For example, guests waiting to appear on television programs often wait in a “green room” to relax.

# Green is thought to relieve stress and help heal. Those who have a green work environment experience fewer stomachaches.

# Blue can create feelings of sadness or aloofness.

# Blue is one of the most popular colors, but it is one of the least appetizing. Some weight loss plans even recommend eating your food off of a blue plate. Blue rarely occurs naturally in food aside from blueberries and some plums. Also, humans are geared to avoid foods that are poisonous and blue coloring in food is often a sign of spoilage or poison.

# Consider how blue is used in language: blue moon, blue Monday, blue blood, the blues, and blue ribbon.

Andres

02-12-2009, 00:31

LINK: http://psychology.about.com/od/sensationandperception/a/color_green.htm

This entire website is clearly fabricated beforehand as "proof" of your innocence.

I for one am not buying this fake website filled with lies.

Blue = cold. Cold = chillier.

Besides, you deliberatly ignored ~:snowman:

Gaius Scribonius Curio

02-12-2009, 01:11

I have an idea, I don't know if anyone would think it's a good one. It's in spoilers.

The premise: We can trust the people who were dead while there were two murders.

That is absolute proof that they were not mafia, and that they were townies. Everyone else is a suspect. There are 2 or 3 mafia remaining, I believe one of the mafia were killed but they could be trying to mess with us. Don't see why but it is technically possible.

So: We ask the dead people who we should lynch. No one votes until they tell us. Then, the living players vote to lynch said people. If we lose the game, it will not be due to mafia coercion and interference.

I'd be willing to consider the dead from this point on also most likely innocent. If one mafia sneaks in, we just need to get the Godfather dead anyway, and the other proven innocents outnumber him.

If this is against the rules or otherwise unpalatable, I withdraw the suggested strategy. But I put it forward for consideration.

This is a good idea in principle ATPG, but I know of at least one major flaw. While the dead can certainly be trusted, as they were killed by the mafia and thus must be innocent, there is no guarantee that they are right. As an example, in Mafia VIII (in which I was mafia) I was lynched in the second-last round, due to a quick change of heart by Kukrikhan. Just about every 'dead person' still posting in that round backed me and said to lynch Kagemusha, the town didn't listen, lynched me and won. If they had have listened to the dead I would have actually won a game of mafia.

Whilst listening to the opinion of those who are murder victims is certainly a good idea, accepting their ideas as gospel is definitely not.

White_eyes:D

02-12-2009, 03:04

This is a good idea in principle ATPG, but I know of at least one major flaw. While the dead can certainly be trusted, as they were killed by the mafia and thus must be innocent, there is no guarantee that they are right. As an example, in Mafia VIII (in which I was mafia) I was lynched in the second-last round, due to a quick change of heart by Kukrikhan. Just about every 'dead person' still posting in that round backed me and said to lynch Kagemusha, the town didn't listen, lynched me and won. If they had have listened to the dead I would have actually won a game of mafia.

Whilst listening to the opinion of those who are murder victims is certainly a good idea, accepting their ideas as gospel is definitely not.

Too True:shame:.....We lost "Chicago soiree" because of dead people....I.E. "Lynch TinCow" then "Lynch Andres" just because everyone had different feelings about who was guilty....and Sigurd got off of it by telling Andres....."I am busy in RL"....Yeah I know...:shrug:....a saying works well here...."He was a victim of his own success":no:

Beefy187

02-12-2009, 04:59

Towns lost Kung Fu because of the living.. No wait because of Beefy :whip:

Im willing to listen to what the dead has to say. It sounds like a plan for me.

White_eyes:D

02-12-2009, 05:02

Towns lost Kung Fu because of the living.. No wait because of Beefy :whip:

Im willing to listen to what the dead has to say. It sounds like a plan for me.

:no::no::no::no::no::no::no::no::no: the dead should just analyze and quote, not "He is guilty, I am 100% sure he is......." I made that mistake too many times.....:thumbsdown:

Beefy187

02-12-2009, 07:10

:no::no::no::no::no::no::no::no::no: the dead should just analyze and quote, not "He is guilty, I am 100% sure he is......." I made that mistake too many times.....:thumbsdown:

Congratulations for your triple 8 posts.. I hope you will be rich

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 12:30

@TinCow, boudica-

I know I have set off your scumdar. Oh well. I have given up on trying to prove my innocence because I have been working on solving the case, as Sasaki suggested. In fact I came home this morning just to deliver this report. (I was here at the start of night phase anyway) I will heavily spoiler it because I don't need to blind people with my verbose postations. Take it as you will, it's my SkyNet analysis. Oh, and I have cleared most of you as suspects. I only have a few jumping off the scale. But it's my opinion so it's not proof, just my analysis.

For now: Lynch me as you will or investigate me. I don't care. I am prepared to go next, too, if you wish. I heavily protest my innocence, but it doesn't matter. I think I narrowed down and nailed the proper people. Let's see if the improved SkyNet is worth it's salt.

Early game SkyNet analysis SPECTACULAR!!!!
With Super Fresh Happy Good Time (And Polite!?!?!?!?)

:balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon: :balloon:

Skip down to the Quick Version if you want to ignore the bulk of my long-winded analysis.

Likelihood of Scum versus Town, according to my analysis:

100% Townie:

Tratorix (dead)
CountArach (dead)
seireikhaan (dead)
boudica (dead)
TinCow (dead)
Ichigo (dead)

90% Townie

Andres (Voting pattern, behavior pattern, SkyNet approved, ATPG double stamp of approval)
Seamus Fermanagh (Voting pattern, posting behavior, good analysis, SkyNet/me approved)
White_Eyes (Voting pattern, posting behavior, good analysis, SkyNet approved, double stamp)

80% Townie

Quintus.JC
Chaotix27
Psychonaut/Rythmic
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Jolt
glyphz

Judgment Call: Townie

Sasaki Kojiro
187Beefyz
777Ares777
LittleGrizzly
Sigurd (dead)

90% Scummy

Reenk Roink
TevashSzat
Lord Winter (dead)

Suspect but not priority:

Ignoramus (Total lurker)
Taka (Lurker)
Shlin28 (Unless the investigator clears him. Please do so)

Personal belief he's not scum, though he looks scummy:

YLC
I can't tell you how surprised I was to find truly compelling townie behavior from so little activity. There were quite a few of you who did several things that I just cannot wrap my mind around doing if I were mafia. I believe everyone on my townie list is most likely innocent, and I'll post reasons for many. Others are a judgment call based on what I know of you, how you voted, and your contributions to this game, so there's a few players I still need to run through the system.

You can lynch me. If I thought I had a lot more suspects, I would fight harder to stay alive. But I think even after you de-activate me, we will have time to nail the two scumbags I've detected, and investigate the other couple who are oddballs.

You could investigate me too if you prefer, but I don't want to waste a lynch and an investigation. Do one or the other, not both.

Next up: Post count and town/mafia judgment

Askthepizzaguy 84 (Investigate me or lynch me, I don't care.)
GeneralHankerchief 46 (Host)
Sasaki Kojiro 45 (ATPG judgment call, will recheck.)
187Beefyz 42 (ATPG judgment call, will recheck.)
Andres 37 (SkyNet approved, ATPG DOUBLE STAMP of Approval)
777Ares777 35 (ATPG judgment call, will recheck.)
TinCow 35 (dead, proven innocent)
YLC 32 (ATPG townie judgment call) Lynch later if necessary.
shlin28 24 (Will recheck, but I get a bad vibe)
LittleGrizzly 24 (ATPG stamp of approval, due to Jolt/LG feud)
Seamus Fermanagh 22 (SkyNet approved, ATPG DOUBLE STAMP of Approval)
Reenk Roink 19 (Scummy, High priority)
White_eyes:D 18 (SkyNet approved, ATPG DOUBLE STAMP of Approval)
seireikhaan 15 (dead, proven innocent)
Quintus.JC 15 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Sigurd 14 (dead)
CountArach 13 (dead, proven)
TevashSzat 12 (Scummy, High priority)
Chaotix27 12 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
boudica 12 (dead, proven)
Psychonaut 12 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Gaius Scribonius Curio 12 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Lord Winter 12 (One murder, lurker, dead)
Jolt 11 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Tratorix 9 (dead, proven)
glyphz 9 (SkyNet approved)
taka 7 (low priority lurker... I actually think he's town)
Ichigo 5 (dead, proven)
Ignoramus 3 (lurking, reasonless votes) (Borderline)
Question: Can we investigate Shlin28? Seems easy enough to tell if he's mafia. If we get another grunt, I think we should lynch him even if investigation seems negative.
Um... wrote this while I was doing it. Mostly just me taking notes, to present a case.
May not even be necessary to read.

Day 3 Tally

Lord Winter: 4 (Sasaki Kojiro, White_eyes:D, YLC, Askthepizzaguy)
Sigurd: 3 (Andres, TinCow, 777Ares777)
Sasaki Kojiro: 2 (Reenk Roink, TevashSzat)
187Beefyz: 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)
White_eyes:D: 1 (Gaius Scribonius Curio)
LittleGrizzly: 1 (Jolt)

Abstained: 7 (shlin28, Lord Winter, 187Beefyz, Chaotix27, taka, Rythmic, Quintus.JC)
Didn't vote: 3 (Sigurd, glyphz, Ignoramus)

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Premise: Mafia tend to have the ability to murder for their partner even if their partner is absent. No murder after this lynch tells me we actually did get a mafioso, or they are trying an absurd gambit.

If this means Lord Winter is guilty, clearly I would suggest that Sasaki Kojiro, White_Eyes, and YLC are innocent, but of course I am super, super guilty for being the deciding vote. It's the only thing that makes no sense, so it must therefore, ipso facto, cogito ergo sum, quid pro quo, habeus corpus, e pluribus unum, stare decisis, odgay essblay ericamay, hasta la vista, logically follow that I must be guilty*.

*May not be guilty in all 50 states. Offer not valid without credit approval.

About YLC, he spoke to me outside the thread (oooh... spooky mafia behavior) and suggested he was doing this stuff to bait the mafia into voting for him (easy lynch), however I suspect they would not be that lazy. At the same time, I am impressed with his insanely suicidal behavior which is intentionally drawing attention to himself AND getting him next on the chopping block with only 1 grunt remaining (as present theory dictates) so it makes no sense that he would be anything besides a townie. The mafia will murder him for being cleared as an innocent, so...
Trust me/benefit of doubt YLC.

White_Eyes would probably not vote for a fellow mafioso. I just don't see it. It's very rare and W_E doesn't strike me as the type, especially with the vote so close.

Sasaki Kojiro is TOO OBVIOUS to be chosen as a mafia grunt. People make a tradition of voting for him for no reason. Come on now. He also was partly responsible for Lord Winter's death. Unless there are two murders, (and keeping the murders at one is good for town, even as a bad mafia gambit) I suggest that we focus on other targets.

I seriously must have proven myself to you by now. I'm not quite deliberately annoying, but I intentionally played strangely earlier to get suspicion on myself to the point where you could have easily lynched me without resistance. I also put the capper vote on what may be a mafia. If you clear me, the gamble is that the mafia will have to start murdering the 4 of us, because we aren't suspects anymore.

If so, we have a narrower suspect list, and even if I am wrong about MY suspects, we are closer than before.

Does this make sense? I mean, blatant power grabs to try to control town are scummy, but it's par for the course for me and I know I will be dead soon (or my continued sleuthing and voting will come in handy...) I would suggest the odds of us winning are better if we do not go after the 4 people I mentioned.

That being said, auto-response from town is to lynch me, so... :shame: whatever makes you happy. I know I've annoyed you enough to warrant it. Occam's razor and basic mafia survival seem to indicate we're not guilty, and if you agree, mafia will kill us, because we aren't suspects and they need other suspects to stay alive, and that will further prove our innocence.

If my suspicion is correct and Sasaki is innocent, it follows that the people voting for him may be afraid of his supertownie-ness, which I am aware is so legendary that someone described my behavior as being Sasaki rebor; that player being Reenk Roink in the Scourge of Ephesus.

I believe Reenk Roink could be mafia. He's devious enough to stay alive long enough to cause us damage. He's inscrutable. He's wacky and insane. He may have come up with the idea to mask the writing styles and borrow from previous games. He voted for Sasaki. He made a serious grab for Police Chief AND he got several people to vote for him, possibly others nominating him so he wouldn't appear suspect. I know that casts doubt on me but you know... *sigh*
I'm going to not bother apologizing for my odd but good behavior and my unproven townie affiliation from this point on just to make it easier on me, OK? Let's continue.

To play it safe, TevashSzat also should be considered. Why vote for Sasaki?

Why don't I pick Andres, TinCow, and Ares? TinCow is proven innocent, as for Ares, I don't know... too obvious an attempt on Sigurd's life, and people vote him dead in every game fairly quickly. They voted for Sigurd, who I don't think is guilty but I cannot postulate that he is innocent just yet. I think it's entirely possible one of them could be mafia, and I'm leaning Andres for gut reasons and intellectual ones. So he has a chance to defend himself:

@Andres-
I believe there was a clue in the Day One writeup which meets your criteria. It mentions alcohol, and cigars are your thing with your pimp-smileys. And you're a great player who doesn't always get bandwagonned right away. You are cool under fire and can easily withstand pressure. If I were the Godfather I'd pick you as my grunt. And you haven't been mafia 3 times in a row lately, like others have.

EDIT: Nevermind, I have reason to believe you could be innocent. (After SkyNet)

Sigurd is just... well... how do I put this? Townies are stupid (collectively, not individually) and will vote him for no reason besides quietness and also he was mafia a lot recently. BAD choice this game for mafia. I could be wrong but you know, you could always investigate him to be sure. Leave the man alone. Oops, too late, he's dead. And I'm not that lucky that we'd nail a mafia with a reasonless bandwagon. Fate is too cruel.

Ignoramus: Maybe it's your style but votes without reasons, to avoid WOG's, I just don't find acceptible townie play. Sorry, I am biased being a big blabbermouth, but 3 no-reason vote posts and that's all tells me you're not willing to be even slightly suspicious in any way other than your lurking. Perhaps it's a gamble... a good gamble, lately... that you're SOOO much of a lurker that "you couldn't possibly be mafia".

Sorry, that's the kind of thinking that lost us the Chicago Soiree (along with some bad play on my part). You need to be investigated or otherwise die, in my book. But I'm not the sherriff of this here town, so I defer to the voting system.

More evidence-
Day 4 tally:

Sigurd: 6 (Andres, Sasaki Kojiro, Gaius Scribonius Curio, glyphz, taka, Reenk Roink)
YLC: 5 (Quintus.JC, Chaotix27, TevashSzat, YLC, Ignoramus)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)
taka: 1 (Psychonaut)
Reenk Roink: 1 (Sigurd)
Psychonaut: 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
LittleGrizzly: 1 (Jolt)
Ignoramus: 1 (Askthepizzaguy)

Abstained: 3 (shlin28, 187Beefyz, White_eyes:D)
Didn't vote: 1 (777Ares777)

If I am right, two of my suspects are right there lynching Sigurd so that YLC will be the suspect next round. I also have two of my suspects going for YLC, the next toppest vote getter-er. TevashSzat is there on YLC, Ignoramus is there on YLC, and Reenk is on Sigurd.

I don't think Sigurd or YLC are mafia, feel free to lynch YLC next, but I bet a million pizzas it's not him and AFTER THAT, you need to kill those people responsible for his death.

As such, my suggestions for the "Die or be investigated" List:

Ignoramus: Lynch soon, no recommendation to investigate. Lurker.
Reenk Roink: Lynch priority. Possible scumbag or Godfather due to his CoP run and second-thoughts leading to the drop out. Too tempting for the veteran players not to recruit him. He's the perfect mafioso and he's brilliant as I said. Low key in his own Reenky way.
TevashSzat: Priority target, see my case against him.

"Non-suspicious to me" List, with reasons:
Sasaki Kojiro- Far too obvious a choice to be mafia. People fear him too much. He helped kill Lord Winter. Think about it... this isn't a random game. The Godfather chose the mafia. Sasaki is too dangerous to be the Godfather... (perhaps) and a bad choice to be a grunt (this time.)
White_eyes:D- He's being White Eyes, and his vote contributed to LW's death. 2 murders proves that theory wrong, but the "one-murder" gambit itself extends the game and that offsets the risk.
YLC- He's being precisely the way he always is, and it always gets him killed. You underestimate him, seriously. I know he annoys you sometimes but he's more talented than you realize. And he might have helped kill a mafia, Lord Winter. Although he's really due to be mafia, he's lynchbait and therefore a poor choice for a grunt.
Askthepizzaguy- Because I am innocent. And I think I killed a mafia. And, I am innocent. Not that it matters. And I'm annoying and I put heat on myself intentionally. If it weren't for my reputation that should be enough. You CAN investigate me you know. And you can lynch me soon, I don't care. If you still have doubts, don't bother with the investigation, just lynch me.
Sigurd- Bandwagonned for poor reasons, odds are long he'd be chosen AGAIN as mafia AND lurk. To be fair, he wasn't lurking, just being quieter than some. Also, given the close vote.
Tratorix- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
CountArach- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
seireikhaan- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
boudica- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
TinCow- Proven innocent by mafia kill.
Ichigo- Proven innocent by lynch, two murders.

If after all this I am wrong, say in 2 nights, go ahead and string me up for leading you astray. This is a group effort, and if you disagree or want to ignore me, do so. I won't be offended. I anxiously await my glorious death by your hands by daring to be so analytical and annoying, for which I apologize. I also believe I'm being far too blatant about my suggestion that I'm innocent for killing Lord Winter for it to be a mafia gambit... too unlikely to persuade you. Like I said, investigate me soon or lynch me in a couple rounds; don't care. I will die before the game is over one way or another, by your hands or theirs. You pick.Nevermind about any parts where I suggest you not lynch me. Do as you will. :bow:

And the nitty gritty of my SkyNet analysis for most of the players of the game:
Also probably unnecessary to read, but I'm showing my work. I'm attempting to clean it up and spoiler it so it's easier to read.

Reenk Roink:
Post 50: Self-incriminating joke. "I am the Godfather." He does stuff like this when he's guilty, too.

Post 113: Poses innocent-sounding question. "What does Chief of Police get to do anyway?" He's a mafia veteran and he should know this (I think... could be wrong)

Post 115: "Why is the town getting rid of my vote? Ah hell, voting is useless anyway, and I can be courteous without it. Elect: Reenk Roink"
Eager to survive to the endgame and he does usually abstain anyway.

Post 126: "I will defriend you if you don't vote for me Beefy."
Sounds like a joke, but he seriously seems to want the job.

Post 151: "Hmm, I was thinking of actually campaigning for this job (I would give most excellent Wanax writeups), but if shlin wants it, he may have it. Elect: shlin28 I request my followers to do the same and thank the ones with good intentions (think it is 9-7 shlin now)."
Changes his mind very late. Perhaps the high chance of being lynched eventually as Police Chief convinced you to abandon the strategy... or perhaps it was your mafia brethren demanding you keep your voting power.

Nothing Page 3. People murdered are Mafia Veterans.

246: "One of the reasons I gave up my claims to becoming the Po was to continue this noble tradition of abstaining, courteously"
Explains himself without being prompted to. Guilty much, Reenk?

300: Corrects flaw in tally but does not add to the discussion, he's usually talkative. He was watching the thread and not posting.

Nothing else Page 4. (at 80 posts per page on my system)

386: "Vote: Seamus Fermanagh. He is probably Mafia and tried to implicate me. I am absolutely not Mafia."
Now I trust Seamus Fermanagh too. Half-hearted, half-joking defense likely to not be detected as scummy. "He is probably Mafia"? explain how, Reenk.

388: "I put you in power and will remove you if need be."
Joke post, half-threatening, but not really. He's prompting the CoP to be more active. Well, Reenk, why don't YOU be more active, too? Saving your verbosity for the endgame?

395: "Sorry but I simply cannot allow Beefy to die this early yet again. He has been knocked off these games too early too frequently. I myself know the frustration when you join a bunch of Mafia games and are either voted off or killed early. To actually clear Beefy, here is an argument (so people can't say I'm not being helpful): The analysis on the writing styles is admirable but also, I feel it is far too exaggerated. Does anyone really believe that the guy who lifted the writeup from another game did research on all the games? He probably remembered a kill he liked and went with it. Yes there are people who would analyze kills and the game in general like that, but they are few, and the lazy are many. It is also easier than some people are saying to change writing styles. Look at the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Mafia V against the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Rise of the Mob. Both games interlapped by the way. You can find small changes (differing places of quotation marks, more sober punctuation use in one) as well as larger thematic changes (European vs American flavor, elaborate kills vs quick punchline kills). Look at Beefy's recent Fillet Royale game. Look how inconsistent the Watcher's letters are. All planned really.
Unvote: Seamus Fermanagh
Vote: Sasaki Kojiro
Sorry Sasaki but you will play the game if you are dead anyway. Save Beefy!"

Unnecessary defense of Beefy, votes for Sasaki. His post, carefully read, seems to be an attempt to mislead us. Unvotes Seamus.. unvoting behavior always piques my interest. He sees a chance to off Sasaki and he is THIRD ON THE BANDWAGON ON SASAKI, with no pressure on him. Safest and most scummy move in the entire mafia universe.

Tally as of post #390

187Beefyz = 2 (Seamus, Tincow)
Sasaki = 2 (GSC, YLC)
Abstain = 1 (White Eyes)

Nothing else page 5.

Post 411: "Ok, let's try to get a whole rollback of votes now, off both Sasaki and Beefy..."
Inconsistent play. Reactionary play. Unhelpful play.

416: "Trust me, it's different with Beefy, he really is one of the few "selfless townies".
Defending Beefy, but he cannot know Beefy is innocent. Scummy.

Nothing else page 6, and that's a lot of posts of silence after Tratorix questioned him thusly:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2131348&postcount=417

534: I believe this post reveals too much:

Boudica @Everyone: "Who would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?"
Reenk Roink:
"Seamus would be one and I won't tell you the second (it would be off a list of potential suitors). Ah heck I'll tell ya! I was going for Seamus and Beefy had I gotten to be the Godfather. Seamus would be the first choice because of old timessakes. Practical reasons in his favor would be that he's one of the best at keeping his behavior and he always seems to be innocent looking and live long. Beefy because I still must work with this extremely nice and funny guy. You can't win was so incomplete. Practical reason is that Beefy is amazing as Mafia as you have all seen. I also considered an elite veteran Seamus - Sigurd tandem but Sigurd has won far far too much so I know he understands that I would share the wealth. I also considered Aries and White eyes for spots. Unfortunately they tend to get lynched through no fault of their own, but are very funny guys and I know for a fact White eyes is really good (Aries probably is too). And the most important thing is that they play the game like I like to play. I also considered YLC who I never got to play a game with as Mafia, but talked with him a lot when he hosted Whispers. Plus even though suspicion is on him, he always stays alive."

An awful lot of thought on this topic, eh, Reenk? And who would you suggest you'd pick "if you were mafia", if you WERE mafia? How about innocent people in this game. Did I nail it? Please tell me I did. Seamus, Beefy, Sigurd, Ares, White Eyes, and YLC are all probably innocent if Beefy is guilty.

Post 544: Reenk is DEAD CENTER in the post count list. The perfect mafia hiding place if you're avoiding the bottom and CANNOT pass as a lurker. And by my count, he's quieter than usual.

Reenk had one post on page 7. Page 8:

614: "And my favorite kill lives on... Good job Mafia, good job. Vote: Sigurd"
Votes Sigurd... and he reminisces about previous mafia games and gives them a pat on the back. Scummy, scummy, scummy in my book. Ironic in retrospect if he were mafia = Bonus points when Reenk wins. He thinks just like I do in that regard.
So long and thanks for all the cluez.

632: "Hello Sigurd. I assure you I care not for the town's bandwagon. Of course I know too well that the charge of lurking is much too early. Also I don't believe it fits. Also, I don't believe you to be one who will use the same tactics. However, I am not the Mafia Sigurd. I may be crazy but I'm not careless with my life. Besides, the Godfather would obviously choose the better man."

LOL! Your slip is showing, Reenk. Defensive after being so quiet. I don't think so... you're yourself in this game. The same yourself as Prometheus, my mafia buddy. The "better man" is you... you won Fillet Royale. You won Prometheus. You're a dangerous character. Don't sell yourself short, because that Reenks of scum.

Only two posts page 8... one scummy vote, one scummy defense.

Nothing page 9. Hasn't spoken to me all game. Are you avoiding me, Reenk? You never have before. You talk more. You joke more. You think your votes through more. You try harder. You're not yourself. Bad performance from you as a townie, IMO.

Nearly everything you've done all game registers on the scumdar. Either it's wrong or you are.

TevashSzat

110: "QFT!!! Vote:shlin28 No agenda like everyone else, just wants a good time......"
I think your move here has a subtle agenda. Not a fan of my analysis, are we? Hasn't bothered you before, I don't think. But I am keeping an open mind. Let's continue.

127: Laughs at Reenk's gamble. Helped elect Shlin28.

Reenk Roink, Andres, Shlin, TevashSzat all moved to elect Shlin28. I suggest he could be mafia. Shlin28 needs to be removed from power.

158: Jokes about lynching Shlin28.

172: Spams us with a "no spam" post.

219: Votes Andres. Very interesting! "Also, aren't the writeups done by the mafiosos? I suppose someone should try to examine them for clues......I would but I don't really want to spend that much time overly analyzing something. Anyways, for what I read, the writeups seem well written with no blatant grammatical errors or anything like that"

Right. It's a bit soon to be analyzing the writeups. Perhaps you wrote them to mislead us, and then encouraged us to analyze them. Trying to keep an open mind... lets continue.

233: "All that will lead to is WIFOM. Person 1: You weren't mentioned so you must be scum
Person 2: But if I were scum, I wouldn't be so careless Person 1: But if you were scum, you would be leaving yourself the opportunity to say you weren't careless. And it can just go on and on.....
@Tincow, Your idea seems very promising. Does anyone here know who in the game speaks English as their first/primary language. I spose that may be useful later on"

Sounds like he's helping out, but he's planting ideas in our heads, subtly trying to destroy potential arguments BEFORE they come.

303: "Well......don't really have anything against Seamus or Ichigo atm. Ichigo seems to not be active at all atm, which is not characteristic of scum, but I don't see how Seamus is extremely scummy right now either so......I'm going to let you guys decide this......"

Sorry. I need more from you than that. Not wanting to vote for the top "suspects", both of whom are innocent in my opinion, so that you can't be blamed for their death, but you have no suspects of your own? Why? uninterested in the game, or mafia? which is it? We need neither.

Nothing personal of course. You're a good player... that's why I expect more. I also find the excessive "......." at the end to be a nervous habit, but that's not evidence I can use.

355: "Well, Perry Mason didn't seem to be related to the kill writeups which suggests that perhaps the mafia didn't write it. That means that either GH or the detective (or a secret role) may be trying to say something to us"

Speculative, but otherwise reveals nothing new. "Just staying active" post.

372: "Hmm....that'd be a good way for them to disguise their writing styles. I don't recollect the first writeup from any game that I've played in, but I don't really remember writeups that clearly.....Does anyone here remember the first writeup?"

Passively going along with what GSC said. Asks people a question that doesn't help. Couldn't he go read the first writeup himself? Generates no new suspects, and no controversy, no heat on him.

Post 390: Right in the middle of the post count list. How convenient to avoid being lynched for lurking, but to avoid detection.

399: "I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM"

Suggests analysis is futile, after half-hearted attempts at analysis. The futility, the lack of energy, the lack of controversy, the lack of suspects, the lack of will, the lack of decisiveness. All say scum to me, and Tevash is no slouch. He's slouching here.

Nothing page 6. Why post when you're not a suspect? Voted for Sasaki.

TevashSzat posted more in the Golden Rule game where he had a mafia-esque role. He posted slightly more in this game than Fillet Royale, but he's not excessively talkative. I think he's off his base behavior here.

Nothing page 7. Why post when you're not a suspect?

583: BLATANT BANDWAGON ON YLC. NOTHING ELSE PAGE 8.

Nothing page 9. Avoided talking to me the entire game. Almost everything he does shows up as scum behavior here.

Andres:

Post 55: Blatantly ran for Chief of Police and gained little support. Surely he would have gotten a little more support from his mafia buddies. He was also quick to run, which tells me he didn't have to contemplate a strategy for winning the game. He jumped right in.

Argued with TinCow playfully. TinCow was innocent. I believe Andres is too.

Post 178: Talks to me, accuses me of being scummy. He knows how I react when I think this is a scummy move. I think he just earned a Halo of Innocence.

189: Posts about Myrddraal's funny totally innocent death in another game. He's not concentrating totally on this game. That tells me he's relaxed.

209: Votes Sasaki out of tradition, normal for him.

213: Asks for a reason for Sasaki's vote. Normal behavior.

215: "It seems to me that you deliberately misspelled his name to provide you with a cheap excuse to vote him. Besides, it doesn't matter how many times he changes his username, he'll always be 'khaan."

So calm, and patiently interrogative. Normal for townie Andres.

POST 219: TevashSzat votes for Andres for "BREAKING TRADITION"

256: "And how does that make TinCow suspicious? It doesn't even make him a hypocrite. I for one am not going to bother looking at the grammar and spelling of kill write-ups. We have a godfather and two grunts, it may well be that there are native and non native speakers among the mafia, possibly even a native speaker from the US, a native speaker from the UK and a non native speaker. And then there's 'khaan who enthusiastically analysed kill write-ups in Kung Fu mafia while he probably wrote them himself."

Absolutely good townie behavior here.

260: "Are you threatening me? If you must, break the tie and vote me. Somebody has to go first"

I hear you, Andres. I hear you. I can feel your townie-ness... it gives you focus, makes you stronger.

266: "Well, you could be guilty"
Continues to interrogate Sasaki. He's cool under pressure and on the attack, not the defense.

284: Paying attention, he catches that YLC already voted Sasaki.

287: Still contributing to town's efforts.

295: YLC defends Andres.

319: "What amazes me is that you are ignoring that other preservation vote, the one made by Sasaki"

Questions Ares' hypocrisy.

322: Does not bandwagon Ichigo, goes with Seamus to keep the tally closer to being even... not a scum move.

Post 390: Seamus points out Andres' activity is townie-fresh and high on the list. 3rd only to me and Ares, consequently I think Ares is innocent too. Leaning innocent on Seamus.

438: Questions GSC on his odd behavior, as I did. Seems to me we are both in townie mode for him to notice that. Abstains, too.

442: Isn't afraid to correct me.

454: points out my slight hypocrisy against Shlin.

460: In full on "suspicious mode", he considers me a suspect now for overreacting, as he characterized it. I wasn't, but he is townie to say so.

461: Agrees there should be no lurker victories anymore.

463: He's paying better attention than I am. Reasonable post.

535: Playfully edits Jolt's post. You had me at :clown:

539: This is important:

"I would either go for random.org or a combination of "low profile/luker players", like seireikhaan (an excellent mafioso, usually flies under the radar until late midgame+ has very creative ideas) and boudica/glyphz (I was very impressed by those two in Ephesus; they belong into the "survivor" category as they don't seem to draw suspicion easily)."

Seireikhaan wasn't a suspect here yet, and that's good. He's offering suspects for good reasons.

Next, he suggests Boudica. He's wrong, but she gets offed by mafia. I highly doubt he would suggest her for the lynch and then do her in himself. Andres is also not affiliated with glyphz. Why suggest a suspect who is your mafia partner when he has no heat on him?

Interesting note:
550: QJC suspects Reenk Roink. I disagree with his other choices, but, dang. Good minds think alike.

560: His vote on Sigurd makes sense, even if I think it's wrong. Sasaki and Andres are blatantly bandwagoning Sigurd together... too blatant for me to think it's scummy. Odd reasoning? No.

Subtle bandwagons without reason are scummy. Blatant with reasons aren't usually.

562: Paying attention and doing research, he suggests that Lord Winter may not have been mafia. Odd play for a mafia to make.

565: Joke post. Good humor and good contribution. Not nervous.

618: Notes YLC isn't making sense, as a townie should. But he doesn't suddenly open fire and vote him.

624: Asks YLC to make a case to him, in private if necessary. Not mafia behavior to me.

Conclusion: Andres does not show up on the SkyNet analysis at all, except as a proven townie. Either it's correct or he's really mastered fooling the system.

Taka

Didn't vote for CoP

217: Votes Ichigo out of tradition. Bloody hands.
Nothing else page 3, 4, 5
Didn't vote Day two.

428: "Vote: Abstain. just before everyone says im being a scummy lurker or something, i just want to say that i've been fairly busy in RL, and also i find theres too much info atm, so if i survive into the later stages i WILL contribute more"

I don't think you should survive. Best to be WOG'ed if you can't contribute. Or let Myrddraal take over. However, I'm not sure you're scum. You know too much about my system to choose to lurk this bad in a game with me in it... you'd basically be committing suicide.

Nothing else page 6. Nothing page 7

586: Suddenly springs to life after being voted by Beefy.

595: "only mafia use the term wifom to confuse people. the common townie (like myself) should not be using the term as it is bad practice. are you mafia?"

I am not sure I follow you.

599: "the question i asked was not a question to be answered - it is a question to remind yourself of who you are. if you are indeed a townie then i would suggest that you stop this wifom thing because atm it makes you horribly scummy in terms of behaviour. i personally do not take in wifom as its just a on-going loop of gibberish. and yes, i have no proof that i am townie, neither has any of the other players playing. but at least i dont act scummy to try to confuse the already confused town"

There's nothing inherently scummy about this post.

612: Votes Sigurd. This is perhaps the scummiest thing you've done, but townies make mistakes. Just stop lurking.

Nothing else page 8 or 9.

Conclusion: He could be telling the truth, but he's a low-priority target for lurking so much.

Glyphz

Glyphz elected TinCow. Didn't have a bandwagon that followed.

122: Tally.
228: Vote Ares (random vote, person in front of him)
229: Vote Chaotix (same reason, and truly seemed to not care who he voted for. Random vote.
251. Joke post.
318. Vote: Seamus. Seamus is still alive and Ichigo was far in the lead. Looked like glyphz was trying to get us two suspects to choose from.

Nothing page 5

434 Tally.
Didn't vote day 3.

Nothing page 7

Chaotix voted for Glyphz, no heat on either one, no bandwagon.

610: Votes Sigurd to break the tie. Bold move, if mafia.

Analysis: Typical non-talkative Glyphz, but there were subtle indications that he has town's interests at heart. He's not controlling the game, he truly voted random, and he tried to give an alternative to the opening Ichigo bandwagon. He made a bolder move later to choose Sigurd (capper vote).

Jolt

Elected Glyphz for CoP. Seems to be an outsider, willing to be independent.

63: Gives RL excuse for not playing actively.
143. Joke post
Nothing page 3
274: Abstain
276: Offers "cool" execution method. Seems relaxed and having fun. Unmanipulative.
327: Random votes Ichigo.
LittleGrizzly votes for Jolt.

466: Jolt OMGUS votes LG

474: Still seems cool. Explanation for OMGUS seems ok. Almost too reactionary... very suspect behavior for no reason.

LG and Jolt FOS each other page 7
Not under pressure, they attack one another and in the process make each other suspect. Absurd mafia behavior or innocent townie bad behavior.

535: Adds to the discussion in a silly way.

LittleGrizzly puts Halo of innocence on me post 553

LG votes Jolt again.

634:
"Decent? Pah-leeze. Basing your vote on my already proven non-activity on weekend is hardly any evidence at all. As ATPG well said, I have nothing whatsoever that sheds any suspicion on me (Besides my reaction to stupid motives for lynching me), reading what TinCow well said, the plagarization of the kills from past games is probably the works of someone who has played those games (I don't have the mood or the time to go read past Mafia games, and apparently you have played the games in question, which adds even more heat on your side), and your words "to provide an alternative", (especially with the baseless reasons to have given for my lynch) for the lynch vote makes me suspect that you are indeed one of the henchmen of the Godfather. I'd wish if there is an investigator role, that he investigate LG. Vote: LittleGrizzly

Although, it'd be damn funny if me and Grizzly were mafia. xD"

In my mind, Jolt and LG's feud has basically cleared both of them. But just this once. Mafia cannot trick me in future games by doing this. They have clean hands and are not manipulating town, and they aren't acting like any mafia I've seen.

Rythmic

119: Elect: Reenk Roink
192: suggestion for lynch method
197: suggestion for lynch method
252: Random votes Ignoramus, who turns out to be a lurker, possible scum.
317: Changes vote to Ichigo. Basically puts a "capper" vote on Ichigo... a bit too risky for mafia to try this early for no reason.
Nothing page 5

436: Abstains, excuse post.

Page 7: Top suspect for many players, but he doesn't show up to defend himself. Townie.

613: Rythmic/Psychonaut shows up after basically being absent. Nothing inherently scummy about his post.

615: Votes Beefy for bandwagoning YLC.
625: Changes to Taka due to mixing up Beefy and Taka. Clearly he doesn't care about lynching a certain person. Smells townie to me.

629: "One word Seamus, hangover. Also, you may want to bold your vote."

He has been known to lurk as mafia, to victory in Family Guy.

631: Blatantly avoids the WOG... fine I guess.

"Three separate hangovers to be precise. But yes, your correct I was simply voting to avoid a WoG. Because I'd at least be a little useful later on, or at least I hope I am."

A bit too obvious, in my judgment... why make yourself look so scummy on purpose?

642: Points out his low post count compared to mine. At least he's talking to me. Doesn't seem hostile to my actions as inquisitor.

Why highlight your scummy behavior if you're scum/lurker/excuse poster? Doesn't make sense. This is a new strategy if he's mafia.

Conclusion: Probably townie, but he needs to do more. He's fooled me before, though.

Chaotix27:

Elects CountArach, proven townie.
169: Calm, offtopic post.
227: Votes Andres with a reason. Andres is still alive and still a suspect, so no bloody hands here.
231: Dismisses the writeups as being probably lies.
314: Puts temporary "capper" vote on Ichigo. Decisive, risk taking.
Interesting analysis post 363.

Nothing page 6

492: Suspects Seireikhaan, who is dead. Suspects me but doesn't seem hostile to me. Suspects Reenk. Now there's a good suspect. Does not suspect GSC.

579, in spite of obvious targets YLC and Sigurd, votes glyphz for lurking. Bravo.

600. Distressed by YLC's behavior, votes him.

605. Good pro-town reasoning.

Analysis: SkyNet Approved.

Quintus.JC

Elects Me for CoP!!!
138: Votes Shlin instead after I drop out. Fair enough.
162: Lynch method suggestion
190: same
193: same
203: same, good humor. Talks to me.
210: Abstains, good humor.
278: Votes GSC, currently alive, no heat on either one.
297: Approves of self-preservation in first round vote.
304: Votes Seamus, presently still alive. Decisive vote, but no blood.
382: paying attention, but offtopic.
Nothing page 6

550: Don't agree with all your choices, but you think Reenk is scummy. You also picked boudica, who died. I doubt you'd announce your desire to have boudica lynched, then kill her.

640: Votes YLC, (consistent)
651: Not afraid to talk to me.
653: same.

Analysis: paying attention, good humor, not controlling, not nervous, offering suspects who are suspect and still alive, clean hands. Townie.

White Eyes

Elect: Reenk.
163: Lynch method suggestion
248: Abstain
315: Votes Ichigo for lurking.
367: Looking for clues in writeup, asks about nude unicyclist.
375: GOOD ANALYSIS

423: Votes Lord Winter. :bow:
425: responds to LW who protested being voted. Keeps vote on him. :bow:
427: Excellent reasoning.
456: Agreed.
464: not eager to bandwagon, talks to me.

529: Rightfully critical of me after Chicago, not dismissing me as a suspect.
540: AWESOME: Thinks Reenk is suspect.

603: Notes writeup has familiar kill (I think)

That's all. I am sure White_eyes is townie.

Seamus

Elects Reenk, gives Boudica as second choice.
125: Wants Reenk all game. I understand the sentiment.
137: Good humor.
174: Good humor.
221: Seems unaware that GH isn't doing any edits in the writeups. Townie tell.
250: Tally
254: Boudica votes seamus.
275: Reasonable post.
294: Starts suspecting YLC, of course.
318: Glyphz votes seamus.
359: Contributing to the discussion in a way I agree with. Abstains
360: Seems to be thinking creatively... looking for clues.
374: Joke post
386: Reenk Roink votes Seamus.

Post 390: Sorry, but he's got to be a townie. Otherwise he's fooled me completely. Votes beefy.

This post like, completely clears him in my opinion. Person he voted for has no heat, still alive, looking for a defense from Beefy, seems to be analysing everyone!

Nothing page 6

490: Joke post.
507: Seems ok to talk to me.
527: Seems to be trying to clear me as a suspect. Holy TinCow.
544: Specifically analyses me instead of just dismissing me as scummy. I say Seamus is town.
549: Thoughtful.
574: Votes Sigurd.
628: Votes Rythmic/Lurker
633. Very witty joke. :bow:
645. Talks to me.

Analysis: Definitley townie. Totally fooled me if not. Double stamp it.
Okay, and that's all I got through so far with SkyNet. Bottom line, most of you have done things which have convinced me of your innocence, and two of you have completely convinced me you're guilty, those being Reenk Roink and TevashSzat. I freely admit I could be wrong, but out of all these players, why are only you jumping off the page at me as being totally scum?

__________________________

Don't take my word for it, town. Just go back and follow all of Reenk's actions, and all of TevashSzat's actions. Then draw your own conclusions. Sorry about all the words. Lynch me as you will. I regret that I have but one slice to give for my country.

I usually don't want to do a SkyNet analysis so soon because of potentially false results, so I will update as the game goes on. You don't have to follow my advice, just please consider it. And please look at Reenk and Tevash. I wouldn't totally trust Shlin28 unless he's been investigated.

The end. :7teacher:
Quick version- My suggestion:

This round: Lynch Reenk Roink, investigate Ignoramus, perhaps, or Shlin28.
Next round: Lynch TevashSzat. pending investigation on other suspects and other developments.

There. Now you don't have to read my long winded analysis or even look at it. And you can ignore me completely too. Free will is a wonderful thing. If you prefer, you can private message me questions or we can do a quicktopic where I can blab all I want and everyone can see it and respond to it or ignore it completely. I'm seriously trying to do my job without bugging you. Let's work together to narrow the suspect list.

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 12:47

*totally drained and pale now*

I will be here for a couple more hours. I'd prefer not to clutter this thread anymore than I already have. Please send me a private message if you want to discuss my work or hear a response, and of course feel free to comment here.

I'll answer any question and whatnot. My fingers hurt.

LittleGrizzly

02-12-2009, 13:10

My 'attack' on Jolt seems to have brought a little suspicion or just criticism for bad townie behaviour, if you really believe im being counter productive to the town with my focus on Jolt i am willing to step back from it, part of the reason... as i said was a lack of viable suspects... with ATPG work have a bit more to go on now... i have to leave uni soon so ill probably comment further when i get home...

edit: good work ATPG!! assuming your not scum theres some good anylisis there... well done!

TinCow

02-12-2009, 13:12

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 13:13

Seriously though, LittleGrizzly, you and Jolt have been going after one another and as a result, you haven't messed with the tally and have clean or fairly clean hands. You haven't been leading us on, and there are other reasons I don't suspect you and Jolt based on your behavior that I put under the category of "Jolt".

The analysis is by no means foolproof, but it's the best I can do, and I tried to organize that mess, I really tried.

Beefy187

02-12-2009, 13:14

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 13:17

Uh, pardon, but how is this 'SkyNet' different from any general post analysis? This just looks like you've gone through each person's posts and made a personal judgment based on their content. While that's perfectly fine to do (and admirable work), I'm not seeing how it is stronger evidence than anyone else's own post analysis. IIRC, you used this system in the Chicago game, and were totally wrong.

Essentially, please explain what makes 'SkyNet' superior to any general post analysis.

Yes, of course.

Ok well for several months I had been constructing a mafia behavioral database. I followed like 15 games which had been completed, seeing who was mafia at the end then followed their behavior through the thread, and categorized their behavior as certain types, and kept track of how often such behaviors occurred. Some behaviors were even for mafia or town. Others jumped off the scale as mafia.

Then I looked at different people, and found that certain patterns remained no matter if the mafia are veteran or newbie, and no matter their preferred mafia style. It stands to reason, as mafia have a psychologically different game motive and it's reflected by their actions. I boiled down all the massive amounts of data into a secret file which contains known scumtells. 100% of all mafia do these behaviors. Other than lurkers, the system has been fairly accurate.

The big weakness is that townies do give off scumtells, and I needed to tweak that.

Consequently, I know now what known Townie behaviors are too to a large degree.

As for the stuff I posted, I did not reveal the actual content of SkyNet, I just commented on what I thought was scummy or not.

The system becomes less effective if I reveal all the known parameters. The stuff I reveal is common sense, but there's more I'm just not willing to share with the general public. I did do a lot of work on it.

It's a work in progress. I'm sorry I registered on your scumdar, by the way.

TinCow

02-12-2009, 13:17

Ok, I just wanted to make sure it was just a post analysis. The way ATPG was talking about it a while back made it seem like it was Holmes 2.0.

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 13:27

@Tincow

Yeah it can get confusing. I don't reveal the 50+ parameters I use to measure scumness. And when I used it on you and Andres in Chicago I had a vendetta against you based on instinct. I didn't use it on you objectively, and noted that in my apology/concession speech. I misused it.

As I am doing the SkyNet analysis, which is going through each post one at a time and cataloging it for the behavioral totals, I comment on each behavior and make a note of good/bad/conflicting/odd/suspicious behavior.

Then I compare my personal judgment with what the system reveals. when they both match heavily, I have a strong case.

______

The tool isn't foolproof, and neither is my judgment. It just has a deeper memory than our conscious minds because of so much data I've collected, and I have psychological profiles on certain people and mafia behavior in general versus town. It does work more than half of the time.

I fear I am monopolizing discussion again. I wanted to prompt you all to look at my top suspects. Don't follow me blindly, use your own judgment. I won't be responsible for another Chicago.

:bow:

ULC

02-12-2009, 13:39

Also, for further clarification, I performed my mad posting through the previous day for SkyNet to analyze behavior more effectively - the more people post, the more effective the system becomes. Since what I did was intended to spark controversy, it worked well enough to not only line everyone up on two people to analyze better, it also intensified the effectiveness - scummy behavior while someone is behaving as I was is not necessary, and is a clear tell.

I am sorry for abusing/manipulating the town into doing what I wanted you to do - you all performed admirably, but that does not justify me using you in an almost "psychological experiment" way. I am terribly sorry, and if the town wishes, I will refrain from playing the rest of the game, and any other game as well.

:bow:

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 13:41

:wall:

And now town is absolutely sure we are both scumbags. Brilliant! :laugh4:

I just want to say, I didn't prompt him to do this. He messaged me and told me his plan like yesterday. I was wondering why he was acting strangely. He did this of his own accord, without my consent or directions.

naut

02-12-2009, 14:01

Holy carpel tunnel syndrome. We've got some double, double toil and trouble. Underhand mischief all around. Nice analysis, interesting suspects.

Askthepizzaguy

02-12-2009, 14:12

As promised I remained for a little while to answer questions. I'll be back tonight or... soon. Don't know.

I am usually not at home right after I leave for two days. I felt this one was relevant enough to warrant a trip. I'm also exhausted because I haven't slept since I came here and began posting/generally being verbose and annoying yesterday.

Good night.

Jolt

02-12-2009, 14:31

LG willingly withdrawing his vote on me, due to town pressure plus the fact that everyone has seen that I'm town seems wierd. I wish someone investigate him. I find his behaviour increasingly strange and counter-productive.

White_eyes:D

02-12-2009, 15:00

You came to....about 90% of the same conclusions I came to...:clown:
Really...wow......I can't say your mafia now....unless you really want to get carpel tunnel syndrome... :smash:

Edit:ATPG, I bow before your analysis.....:bow: or at least the 2 hours you must have spent on typing it....:sweatdrop:

TinCow

02-12-2009, 15:21

As I have been proven innocent, I will do the town a favor by actually reading the GREAT WALL OF TEXT and providing an opinion on it. The below comments are c&p, because there's no way I'm going to try and trim it out properly from a quote box.

From your 'preamble':

I seriously must have proven myself to you by now. I'm not quite deliberately annoying, but I intentionally played strangely earlier to get suspicion on myself to the point where you could have easily lynched me without resistance.

No and no. I don't see how you've proven yourself in any way. High activity levels don't mean you're innocent, nor do massive analysis posts. If you were mafia, your WALL OF TEXT is a great way to bludgeon people until they do what you want, because most people won't read it and you know it. It's easy to hide logical fallacies and errors when you post so much text that no one can even remember what you wrote.

You also have not been playing strange. You post an absurd amount, both in frequency and in quantity, in every single game I've been in with you. You also act like you are the ultimate town protector in the games I've played with you. This is the exact same thing you're doing here. So, no, you have not been acting strangely.

From your SkyNet analysis of TevashSzat:

Reenk Roink, Andres, Shlin, TevashSzat all moved to elect Shlin28. I suggest he could be mafia. Shlin28 needs to be removed from power.

Again, no. The CoP has no power that is important to the mafia. If shlin is mafia, his position as CoP is entirely irrelevant to the game. He should be analyzed and voted on just like everyone else, but does not deserve special treatment due to his position as CoP.

My assessment of the general summary:

Despite any criticism above, ATPG has made a very good analysis of in-game behavior. There is a lot of common sense in what he finds innocent and what he finds scummy. I'm personally not convinced at all on Ignoramus, who I personally find to be generally lazy at times and I think that's what's going on here. However, his points on Reenk Roink and TevashSzat are well-analyzed, well-argued, and consistent. TevashSzat also fits my mental profile for the person who wrote the N1 kill write-up and has since switched to plagiarism to cover their writing style.

So, my advice to the town is to follow ATPG's lead for a little while. Lynch Reenk Roink and TevashSzat, probably in that order (as TevashSzat would likely be the grunt, not the Godfather, and thus he would be the lesser target). If the game is not over after both of those two are lynched, then lynch ATPG.

boudica

02-12-2009, 15:31

So, my advice to the town is to follow ATPG's lead for a little while. Lynch Reenk Roink and TevashSzat, probably in that order (as TevashSzat would likely be the grunt, not the Godfather, and thus he would be the lesser target). If the game is not over after both of those two are lynched, then lynch ATPG.

:laugh4::laugh4::laugh4:
harsh? ...but fair I think. The beautiful thing about TinCow's proposal there is that ATPG can keep reparing holes in his SkyNet whether alive or lynched

Reenk Roink

02-12-2009, 15:36

Askthepizzaguy, I admire the effort you put in these games, I really do. And don't let some mutterings otherwise stop you. Enjoy these games in your own way. :bow:

However, any systematic method of analysis in these games is self defeating and doomed to fail. If they sometimes produce right results, it is due to coincidence purely.

TinCow, your criticism and then tacit support of some of Askthepizzaguy conclusions confuses me (and probably yourself too), as well as your odd insistence that you have been proven innocent as if innocence implies any sort of ability to analyze better... :rolleyes:

Silence: TinCow
Vote: Askthepizzaguy

TinCow

02-12-2009, 15:43

:laugh4::laugh4::laugh4:
harsh? ...but fair I think. The beautiful thing about TinCow's proposal there is that ATPG can keep reparing holes in his SkyNet whether alive or lynched

Perhaps I didn't explain that well enough. The point is that ATPG's analysis does generally seem fair and logical. He makes a strong case against RR and Tevash. This indicates to me that if the games does not end with those two, there is a strong possibility that ATPG has been intentionally leading the town astray. Thus, if his claims don't pan out, then he should be considered extremely suspect.

TinCow, your criticism and then tacit support of some of Askthepizzaguy conclusions confuses me (and probably yourself too), as well as your odd insistence that you have been proven innocent as if innocence implies any sort of ability to analyze better... :rolleyes:

My criticism was on a few points which I disagree with. I think the TEXT ICBM threatens to make people believe every last word he writes, which is dangerous. ATPG does make some errors in there IMO, and so I want to point those out so that people don't buy them when they accept everything else. That does not mean I disagree with everything he says, though.

I do not claim any great ability to analyze due to my innocence (which HAS been proven, since I was killed by mafia). The point of emphasizing my innocence is that there is no possibility that I am trying to mislead the town when reading ATPG's TEXT ICBM. My advice is subject to as much error as anyone else's, but you at least know it's not mafia advice trying to lead you astray.

White_eyes:D

02-12-2009, 15:54

Andres

02-12-2009, 16:08

It's dangerous to put forward an order of lynching targets. If you go:

- next round : lynch X
- then : lynch Y
- then lynch Z

then you are basically killing all discussion in three full rounds.

Yes ATPG has put alot of effort in his analysis, but I remember another player, Kommodus, with holmes, a tool that he had worked on for very, very long and that had at least as much data in it as ATPG claims his tool to contain, yet he admitted himself that it was not flawless and not to be relied on blindly. In fact, town even won a few games because they did not follow all suggestions provided by holmes. Kommo himself even ignored his own tool and by doing so nailed my mafia partner Dutch_guy in Mafia VI.

What I'm trying to say, don't put too much trust in programs or databases or scripts or whatever it is ATPG has developped. While useful tools, they are most of the time not enough to obtain a town victory.

Also, if I understand the explanation in his long post correctly (yes, I read it, I have to, since I moderate this place :mean:), he only analysed the behaviour of mafia players, not behaviour of townies. I believe that if you want such a database/analysis tool/script or program(?) to work, you should also analyse all townie behaviour and then compare general townie with general mafia behaviour + player per player comparisons when townie vs. mafia. Then you should also analyse pro-town power roles, since, if I remember correctly from Kommo, some players (intentionally and unintentionally) display mafia-like behaviour when they have a pro-town power role.

Alot of the things all mafiosi have in common, they'll probably have in common with townies and, maybe even more with pro-town power roles as well. The thing is to find where the differences are and how much those differences occur.

Seamus Fermanagh

02-12-2009, 16:45

Andres:

Fair points about Kommo's tool. He himself noted its limitations which included reduced accuracy with "newer" players; the inability to discriminate between Pro-town and Mafia roles (spotting the power players quickly and wiping them out is counterproductive if you happen to whack the Detective and the Doctor first); and finally that certain posting styles, when consistent for that player, didn't have enough variance to twig Holmes' radar.

Don't get me wrong, his Holmes was albe to nail me a time or two, but NO SYSTEM (except the one about women running the marriage) is unspoofable -- as about 5 millenia of human history will indicate.

I also agree about your point on listing lynches in advance. Unless we are down to the endgame and we have a VERY focused set of targets, it's counterproductive to suggest more than one round in advance.

Pizza:

You realize that, vis-a-vis this game, your discussion of your tool also provides clear evidence that you have been poring over the specific posts of previous games....which we know figures prominently in the writeups of each night phase. This too is food for thought.

shlin28

02-12-2009, 17:32

Gah, I *always" get anti-town vibes from SkyNet even though I am town.

Even if I was mafia, the only position I could be is the Godfather, as any grunts would be found guilty by the detective... (small chance of detective being dead... but thats TINY). and I know I am NOT the Godfather...

So yeah, I think you guys should trust me and not lynch your benevolent overlord.

PS: Sorry for decrease in activity for past few days, once the weekend is here prepare for a humungus amount of posts :2thumbsup:

Quintus.JC

02-12-2009, 19:00

That's some awesome anaylsis ATPG, well-reasoned. You've clearly put a great amount of effort in helping the town's cause (or deceving the town). :bow:

I can't say your mafia now....unless you really want to get carpel tunnel syndrome... :smash:

ATPG has clearly shown the effort, but there have been many cases before where supposely 'pro-town' players who posted long anaylsis turned out to be the mafia. Curio in Mafia VIII is a good example of this.

I agree with lynching Tevash next round. He's a good pick for grunt, and his behaviour doesn't suggest of his innocence at all.

I'm less certain about Reenk, behavouir wise I don't see much wrong with him (he is also quiet in the other game). Also he'd be a dangerous pick as a grunt because of his playing style and past records.

Thermal

02-12-2009, 19:29

@ ATPG: Your player analysis is almost identical to as done at the TWC, you must of known i'd pick this up, coinceidenally you were mafia on that game, while i think the analysis is superb it is also similar to a game where you were mafia. And ive got reason to assume YLC is guilty because you simply said he feels innocent to you, that usually means you want him out of trouble for no personal reason, other than he is associated with you, saying you think the majority of players are innocent to counteract everyone voting for you.

With that said, i will not vote against you when day comes, your simply to amazing a player to kill off without the evidence to lynch you, and i do agree ignormous should be killed off too, with lurking and minimal voting at an insultingly high level.

GeneralHankerchief

02-12-2009, 19:39

Night 4

Jolt was returning home from work when he saw a large white envelope placed right in front of his front door. On guard given the recent killings, he cautiously opened it for fear of some nefarious killing device. To his relief, there was only an unmarked DVD disc and piece of paper in it which said:

“Meet me at the abandoned office building just southeast of the Gameroom and north of the Frontroom in one hour. Bring the DVD. -Your Friendly Neighborhood Savior”

Jolt was not an idiot so he called up the Chief of Police, shlin28 to tell him of this meeting. Unfortunately, shlin28 was held up by a pizza delivery car the whole drive home and never received the message in time.

Confident that shlin28 would be home soon and call for backup, Jolt anxiously drove to the abandoned office building. The whole area was quiet except for the rustling of a poorly attached poster exclaiming the importance of saving the grizzly bear population nearby.

Jolt entered the building lobby where he saw a small television with a DVD player attached to it placed on the floor. He slowly inserted the DVD he received from the envelope into the player and waited for the video to play.

A dark figure appeared and started talking, “Hello, Jolt. I see that you managed to get my message. Good, this means that there's still some trust left in this place. You have no idea how glad I am to know this. This building is currently under watch. Stay put, I'll be here in five minutes. We'll talk face-to-face then. This is a dire situation. I want to warn you of the impending chaos to come…..”

Outside, the wind finally blew that grizzly bear poster down to reveal a sign that said: “WARNING, DEMOLITION TO OCCUR AT DUSK.”

Jolt never managed to hear the rest of the message because the whole building was instantly blown up.

When shlin28 and his backup finally arrived, the building was reduced to a huge pile of rubble. Dental records had to be used to identify Jolt’s remains.

Cursing, Chief of Police shlin28 drove back to the town square. His day had been interrupted, his lynch method for the day was behind schedule, and to top it off the interruption was for actual police work, and not something more pleasurable like a massage session with some of his "aides". Police work wasn't supposed to be part of the job!

"They'd better lynch whoever was responsible for interrupting my day," he muttered to himself. "This is a crime more serious than murder."

Grunting, he stuck a particularly heavy uncomfortable chair to the execution platform. Looking around, he saw the man with the boombox lounging about, listening to "Escalator of Life" by Robert Hazard, not a care in the world. For some reason, he seemed to be playing the song's climax over and over again. As always, the nude unicyclist pedaled and juggled about, observing everything.

Ignoring the two, shlin made his way into the back of a large van, taking out a firework. Grinning for the first time in hours, he set it up and launched it. Soon enough, everyone gathered to where he was.

"All right," he said, "Here we go again. This time, the execution is simple. All that will have to happen to the person with the most votes is that they'll sit in the chair. Sound easy enough? Good, amuse me."

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (19)
shlin28
YLC
777Ares777
Andres
TevashSzat
Quintus.JC
Rythmic
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Reenk Roink
glyphz
187Beefyz
taka
Seamus Fermanagh
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Ignoramus
Askthepizzaguy
Sasaki Kojiro

Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow
Jolt

Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter
Sigurd

~~~~~~~

Voting will close at precisely 14:00 EST tomorrow.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-12-2009, 19:42

I like the analysis although I think you mark off too many people as townie for convenience sake. There are several who I think are capable--even if they showed scummy behavior in the other games you analyzed--of appearing townie up to this point. I'm also very familiar with the "I have it all figured out" epiphany (and have a tradition of pm'ing GH my later-revealed-to-be-ridiculous suspicions :laugh4:), and it can often blind you to the truth.

I wouldn't put reenk in the guilty pile. He could be mafia for sure, but he always plays the game his own way as town or as mafia. Setting himself up as "defender of beefy" fits right in. I don't object to his lynch but it's something to keep in mind.

Tevash was someone I was going to take a look at come daytime.

Ignoramus always lurks and has been WoG'd countless times.

Oh, and shlin is someone I used to keep around to get lynched in the endgame when I was mafia :laugh4:

I'm pretty optimistic for this game, we have a huge number of lynch rounds if the mafia are indeed at one kill. Although something tells me none of the "suspects" will be killed anytime soon.

Quintus.JC

02-12-2009, 19:46

Looks like Lord Winter could of been one of the scums after all....

Vote: Tevash

TinCow

02-12-2009, 19:53

As far as I can tell, this write-up is original. Searches of the Org and TWC do not show anything that matches the above. I'm not going to attempt to do further writing style analysis, as the mafioso would surely be extraordinarily careful at this point, probably working with their Godfather as an 'editor.' I simply mention this as the decision to abandon the plagiarism is itself interesting, though I can't put any significance on it.

Thermal

02-12-2009, 19:53

look posts 291# - 303 for ATPG worringly similiar behavior as to this game by the way, if you want to look.

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?t=217758&page=16

oh and orgahs join some games at the twc, it be fun! :clown:

Reenk Roink

02-12-2009, 20:06

I do not claim any great ability to analyze due to my innocence (which HAS been proven, since I was killed by mafia). The point of emphasizing my innocence is that there is no possibility that I am trying to mislead the town when reading ATPG's TEXT ICBM. My advice is subject to as much error as anyone else's, but you at least know it's not mafia advice trying to lead you astray.

Technically until GeneralHankerchief confirms that there are no non-town non main Mafia roles in the game, your status has not been proven at all.

If or when it is proven... read on...

As for a dead innocent misleading, first it is not even remotely out of the question that a townie try to mislead the town for whatever reason. Second, even if a dead townie doesn't intend to mislead, he could still be doing so (as you are right now by saying I am a good choice for a lynch).

Sasaki Kojiro

02-12-2009, 20:13

fos:Askthepizzaguy, YLC

Tevash had tweaked me, but on reread there isn't much there. Given my thoughts on reenk already.

When Lord Winter was on the block, atpg made a huge case on Curio which was filled with poor logic and is now abandoned.

I think his game analysis is off. Don't agree with the conclusions.

It's interesting to consider him as a scumpartner with YLC. I can see them deciding that LW was a goner and lynching him--it's what I would do as mafia given that being dropped to one kill reveals (sort of) the guilt of the person last lynched. I don't like the way YLC went from what I would describe as having given up early yesterday to mafia-philosopher road when it appeared sigurd getting lynched was a real possibility. The timing of atpg's huge game analysis could be an effort to get suspicion away from YLC.

atpg says that YLC is "lynch later if necessary":

YLC 32 (ATPG townie judgment call) Lynch later if necessary.

Despite being sure he's townie:

YLC- He's being precisely the way he always is, and it always gets him killed. You underestimate him, seriously. I know he annoys you sometimes but he's more talented than you realize. And he might have helped kill a mafia, Lord Winter. Although he's really due to be mafia, he's lynchbait and therefore a poor choice for a grunt.

This doesn't match the decisiveness of the other analysis on players. YLC is listed in green while other players who he's going to recheck are in blue.

There are other people who could be mafia--and it's possible that only one of these guys is, but at this point no one else has done anything particularly suspicious and the link these two have with each and the circumstances of Lord Winters lynch makes them impossible to pass up.

Haven't decided which one to vote yet.

Thermal

02-12-2009, 20:18

note i said YLC was suspicious for those reasons to, look at the link i left in my last post, posts 291-303 are similar to this game and he was mafia there.

TinCow

02-12-2009, 20:31

Technically until GeneralHankerchief confirms that there are no non-town non main Mafia roles in the game, your status has not been proven at all.

Re-read the rules. GH says one Godfather, two Grunts, and a Detective. GH hosts classic games with classic roles, and this is apparently a revival of his favorite classic series. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, the first two games had nothing but mafioso and a detective. If GH was going to toss in other roles, I think it would be clear from the instructions, like it was for his now-delayed Pirate Ship game.

As for a dead innocent misleading, first it is not even remotely out of the question that a townie try to mislead the town for whatever reason. Second, even if a dead townie doesn't intend to mislead, he could still be doing so (as you are right now by saying I am a good choice for a lynch).

Fair enough. I'm not going to argue this point, because I don't even think I'm good at catching mafioso. I do my best to contribute in the most useful way I see possible, and I try and support points that seem correct to me. Currently, I see nothing that I am so absolutely passionate about that I'm going to argue it heavily.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-12-2009, 20:41

Re-read the rules. GH says one Godfather, two Grunts, and a Detective. GH hosts classic games with classic roles, and this is apparently a revival of his favorite classic series. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, the first two games had nothing but mafioso and a detective. If GH was going to toss in other roles, I think it would be clear from the instructions, like it was for his now-delayed Pirate Ship game.

No, I was the secret mafia mastermind in Godfather one. In Godfather two I believe the twist was that there were two detectives. Although I can't remember exactly, that might have been what GH and Myrd claimed the twist was :laugh4:

GeneralHankerchief

02-12-2009, 20:42

Re-read the rules. GH says one Godfather, two Grunts, and a Detective. GH hosts classic games with classic roles, and this is apparently a revival of his favorite classic series. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, the first two games had nothing but mafioso and a detective. If GH was going to toss in other roles, I think it would be clear from the instructions, like it was for his now-delayed Pirate Ship game.

Good initiative, but I suggest you more closely follow your own advice:

Finally... I'll let Silver explain the final rule:
Each game in the The Godfather series will have its own special twist, which will differ between games.

...the exact nature of which will remain a mystery until the end of the game.

-edit- Sasaki, that was what we claimed but it turns out that was the actual twist too. It just wasn't us, obviously. :laugh4:

TinCow

02-12-2009, 20:45

Then I stand corrected. Feel free to toss a scum-bucket on me and call me Frankie No Nose until the game is done.

TevashSzat

02-12-2009, 21:30

ATPG I am sorry that you are indeed quite wrong.....I am just a townie as always and here is my rebuttal to your analysis.

110: "QFT!!! Vote:shlin28 No agenda like everyone else, just wants a good time......"
I think your move here has a subtle agenda. Not a fan of my analysis, are we? Hasn't bothered you before, I don't think. But I am keeping an open mind. Let's continue.

127: Laughs at Reenk's gamble. Helped elect Shlin28.

Reenk Roink, Andres, Shlin, TevashSzat all moved to elect Shlin28. I suggest he could be mafia. Shlin28 needs to be removed from power.

158: Jokes about lynching Shlin28.

172: Spams us with a "no spam" post.

Okay......it was pretty obvious that the CoP round was more or less not that serious with the Tincow eating babies and things like that. If you remember, I voted for shlin when he was the underdog and honestly had no idea everyone would all then suddenly bandwagon on shlin.....

From your perception, the CoP would almost definately be scummy since people had to vote for him right? Of course, the other guy who would've possibly been CoP was Reenk so your "scummy" people would be fufilled after all......

219: Votes Andres. Very interesting! "Also, aren't the writeups done by the mafiosos? I suppose someone should try to examine them for clues......I would but I don't really want to spend that much time overly analyzing something. Anyways, for what I read, the writeups seem well written with no blatant grammatical errors or anything like that"

Right. It's a bit soon to be analyzing the writeups. Perhaps you wrote them to mislead us, and then encouraged us to analyze them. Trying to keep an open mind... lets continue.

Well, just pointing things out there since mafia usually rarely writes the writeups and noone had mentioned it before.

It didn't lead us down any particularly useful avenues as usual but at least someone should've looked at them

233: "All that will lead to is WIFOM. Person 1: You weren't mentioned so you must be scum
Person 2: But if I were scum, I wouldn't be so careless Person 1: But if you were scum, you would be leaving yourself the opportunity to say you weren't careless. And it can just go on and on.....
@Tincow, Your idea seems very promising. Does anyone here know who in the game speaks English as their first/primary language. I spose that may be useful later on"

Sounds like he's helping out, but he's planting ideas in our heads, subtly trying to destroy potential arguments BEFORE they come.

Okay....let me get this straight. I'm scummy because I am actually trying to contribute? With that reasoning, you must the mafia given the huge wall of text you have provided for us.

As for destroying arguments, again How is it bad to destroy BAD arguments before they're put into discussion and waste townie time? You can't say that my comments were true.

Also, aren't your analysis of the "innocent" just destroying potential discussion. Your townie people must be innocent so you're making sure that people are only focusing on who you deem to be scummy.

303: "Well......don't really have anything against Seamus or Ichigo atm. Ichigo seems to not be active at all atm, which is not characteristic of scum, but I don't see how Seamus is extremely scummy right now either so...

Sorry. I need more from you than that. Not wanting to vote for the top "suspects", both of whom are innocent in my opinion, so that you can't be blamed for their death, but you have no suspects of your own? Why? uninterested in the game, or mafia? which is it? We need neither.

Nothing personal of course. You're a good player... that's why I expect more. I also find the excessive "......." at the end to be a nervous habit, but that's not evidence I can use.

It was the first round. Ichigo barely posted. Seamus didn't post much at all. There was little to no evidence against both. Am I to say that oh Ichigo's lurkiness makes him a definate scum? Heck, you didn't have a strong conviction against either too.......

Also regarding the ellipsis that I use: I use them because I like using them.......I use them in alot of my posts and this isn't really a major development of my supposedly mafia psyche.

355: "Well, Perry Mason didn't seem to be related to the kill writeups which suggests that perhaps the mafia didn't write it. That means that either GH or the detective (or a secret role) may be trying to say something to us"

Speculative, but otherwise reveals nothing new. "Just staying active" post.

And you can find alot more posts from most people, including those in your townie list, that do the same thing.

I never am too active in games so I try to "just stay active" alot.

372: "Hmm....that'd be a good way for them to disguise their writing styles. I don't recollect the first writeup from any game that I've played in, but I don't really remember writeups that clearly.....Does anyone here remember the first writeup?"

Passively going along with what GSC said. Asks people a question that doesn't help. Couldn't he go read the first writeup himself? Generates no new suspects, and no controversy, no heat on him.

You here are misunderstanding what I am trying to say:

I obviously have read the first writeup since how can I not recollect something if I haven't read it? I mean that this first writeup doesn't seem to be copied from any other writeup in other mafia games.

I obviously haven't played every mafia game in the Org or even a large portion of it so there is a pretty good chance that if the writeup was copied, some veteran players who have had more games under their belt would have remembered them.

Post 390: Right in the middle of the post count list. How convenient to avoid being lynched for lurking, but to avoid detection.

Let me say this:

I don't have lots of ideas and don't post much like others (you, Tincow, etc...) so if I want to be on the top of postcounts, I'd have to SPAM the thread which would do no good.

Lurking excessively can only caused WOG for me, which is bad for the town since I'm a townie so I don't do that.

In short, I'm scummy now because I don't spam and I don't want to get WOGed.

Seamus and White_eyes were only a few posts more and less than me, respectively. They, however, can't be sucmmy at all since they don't fall within the arbitrary middle do they?

399: "I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM"

Suggests analysis is futile, after half-hearted attempts at analysis. The futility, the lack of energy, the lack of controversy, the lack of suspects, the lack of will, the lack of decisiveness. All say scum to me, and Tevash is no slouch. He's slouching here.

Umm......I'm actually a bit of a slouch in most mafia games.

I know I was fairly active in yours, but that was because your game had that twist.

I would say most people would agree that I tend to be semi-active in most games or basically drop out. I have been WoGed quite a few times and quite often get behind in reading.

I am seriously now doubting your analysis skills if all you've deduced from my games is that I always contribute alot because frankly (and kinda sadly) I rarely am that useful of a townie.

Nothing page 6. Why post when you're not a suspect? Voted for Sasaki.

TevashSzat posted more in the Golden Rule game where he had a mafia-esque role. He posted slightly more in this game than Fillet Royale, but he's not excessively talkative. I think he's off his base behavior here.

Yea.....I think our number of posts per page is different so can't really rebute here.

Nothing page 7. Why post when you're not a suspect?

Again, different # of posts per page

583: BLATANT BANDWAGON ON YLC. NOTHING ELSE PAGE 8

Okay, how the heck is that a bandwagon?

Sasaki made a good argument against YLC and want him to respond. Sigurd votes YLC as a pressure vote.

Now instead of YLC responding to an attack on him like myself, he votes for himself, which IMO, is incredibly scummy.

Quick question: Had I not responded like so and simply voted myself saying that oh there is no point in staying alive at all? Does that make me more or less scummy?

ATPG I must applaud you for your effort, but I seriously doubt your reasoning behind my supposed scumminess.

You claim that I voted for the CoP, tried to stop bad arguments and point out WIFOM beforehand, don't post a great deal, which is my normal behavior, and vote on a clearly scummy or at least, not very helpful townie.

I am ambivalent as to whether you are a mafioso with WAYYYYYY too much time on your hands or just a misguided townie. Your rather poor analysis and almost capricious choosing of scummy people, however, make me think that you will do little but distract the town's discussion.

Vote: ATPG

Edit:

I strongly encourage people to actually read ATPG's analysis before just capriciously bandwagoning for whomever he deemed to be scummy.

Edit 2:

FOS: Quintus No comment regarding ATPG's analysis at all. Did you even read his analysis of me?

ULC

02-12-2009, 22:01

Sasaki, you do realize your argument for the WALL OF TEXT is baseless? I did the whole thing for that wall of text, not the other way around. Your argument against me is based upon the notion that I would act clearly scummy to hide my guilty nature. That's not only clear WIFOM, but bad play in my opinion.

Lynch me if you want, just not on the basis ATPG is trying to save me.

To help you along in that endeavor

Vote:TevashSzat

I find you wall of text more painful to look at.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-12-2009, 22:08

Ok, there's some points I think I could explain more fully:

First: Why would ATPG and/or YLC vote to lynch there own partner? Well, I have a reputation for being tenacious and good at convincing people, and I was going after Lord Winter pretty hard. Lord Winter was not successfully defending himself. When you're mafia, the fact that you know your partners are guilty always colors your perception of the game. There are many times I've been very anxious over a post one of my partners made that I thought would give them away only to have it ignored. So by that view, it's quite possible that LW's partners pessimistically considered him as good as dead.

Second: YLC's behavior yesterday. I described this poorly in my last post. I meant to get at the disconnect between his first post after the accusation, and the rest of his posts.

And? So?

Vote: YLC

I don't think I will be able to contribute much at all anymore, I've been progressively getting busier. Easier to lynch me now while the opportunity stands. I don't think any of you will have a problem with this since it will be easy enough for me to come back, dead or alive, and still contribute at a later date.

This post: Voting himself, won't be able to post much because he's busy, will come back and contribute later.

Rest of posts: obviously not that busy, specifically says that he's a spiteful townie and will try to hurt the town if lynched, changes vote to sigurd.

Third: ATPG's case on Curio. 8 posts, several of them very long. He persistently questions Curio and accuses him of hiding. I don't think I'll get into the meat of ATPG's accusation but it is poor logic--thought not as bad as his case on shlin. After all that, he switches to Lord Winter with this post:

I've re-examined the evidence on Lord Winter, and his writing style is... well, improper enough to fit the supposed profile of one of the murder writers, who may have had to pull from previous games in order to cover up his style.

Lord Winter is also a veteran, from the ancient era.

The ancient era, by the way, was that big long period of peace and quiet before Askthepizzaguy wandered into the gameroom.
As such, he meets the profile of someone who could fish out kill descriptions from previous mafia games (a strategy a newbie would not come up with, most likely) and someone who may have difficulty masking his writing.

I'll leave GSC alone for one round, and go for Lord Winter.

Unvote: Gaius Scribonius Curio
Vote: Lord Winter

Reason: His writing style could match one of the killers.

His later thoughts on Lord Winter:

Lord Winter: I'm having second thoughts, but the low activity and veteran status combined with sort of a low-key play style and the spelling stuff means that if we just totally overlook him as a top suspect, we aren't doing a very thorough job.

I'd think that the mafia, as a team, however, would catch Lord Winter's writing style before it makes it to print... possibly, perhaps, not even choosing him as a grunt to begin with due to GH's lack of editing. All this is speculation.

And I don't think Sigurd should ever be allowed to lurk again. If not Lord Winter, go ahead and string him up.

I'd be willing to take my vote off of Lord Winter as well, but I don't know... Sigurd has been mafia a LOT lately... making him a grunt is a bad choice. Especially if he lurks. They must think we are total morons to pick Sigurd and have him lurk again. I have doubts it's Sigurd for like, what is it, 4th time in a row? That being said, he's not particularly helpful, and I refuse to lose to a lurker again.

The vote count at the time was Lord Winter 4, Sigurd 2.

This is all open to interpretation. My view is that atpg faked the case on curio, decided to lynch his buddy and came up with a wishy washy reason for it, and then had thoughts of switching to sigurd but decided not to.

Fourth: ATPG current suspects.

Ignoramus: Lynch soon, no recommendation to investigate. Lurker.

Ignoramus always lurks and is usually WoG. Not a "soon" lynch in my book.

Reenk Roink: Lynch priority. Possible scumbag or Godfather due to his CoP run and second-thoughts leading to the drop out. Too tempting for the veteran players not to recruit him. He's the perfect mafioso and he's brilliant as I said. Low key in his own Reenky way.

This is his summary, and it has problems of its own--no one cares about being CoP and there are plenty of veteran players to recruit--but look at the full case for more fun, here's some snippets:

He sees a chance to off Sasaki and he is THIRD ON THE BANDWAGON ON SASAKI, with no pressure on him. Safest and most scummy move in the entire mafia universe.
...
An awful lot of thought on this topic, eh, Reenk? And who would you suggest you'd pick "if you were mafia", if you WERE mafia?
...
Reenk is DEAD CENTER in the post count list. The perfect mafia hiding place if you're avoiding the bottom and CANNOT pass as a lurker. And by my count, he's quieter than usual.
...
Votes Sigurd... and he reminisces about previous mafia games and gives them a pat on the back. Scummy, scummy, scummy in my book.

My reaction to this is: what?? Seriously. I wouldn't say reenk is innocent but this is what he plays like, and these reasons of atpg's are nonsense.

On Tevash, this seems to be the meat of atpg's accusation:

Post 390: Right in the middle of the post count list. How convenient to avoid being lynched for lurking, but to avoid detection.

399: "I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM"

Suggests analysis is futile, after half-hearted attempts at analysis. The futility, the lack of energy, the lack of controversy, the lack of suspects, the lack of will, the lack of decisiveness. All say scum to me, and Tevash is no slouch. He's slouching here.

In the middle of the list--null tell. And how is tevash's perfectly legitimate point about the writeup analysis scummy? He's right if you ask me, the writeup analysis is just wifom. You can hardly attack tevash for not going after mafia hard and fast when hardly anyone in the game has.

Fifth: Reposting my original case on YLC:

If we do make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia (which I would be inclined to believe), then a couple people start to look scummy. First is YLC.

Connection with Lord Winter: possible anxious response upon my questioning of Lord Winter. The set of posts are linked to in this (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128359&postcount=295) post of his. His accusation is that Lord Winter and I are inventing something to argue over. He appears to stand quite strongly (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128976&postcount=326) behind this accusation, and leads of the next day of voting with a vote for me. In that light his abandonment of his case and the reversal (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2131508&postcount=433) of his previous position is suspicious. His vote tied lord winter with me. Now, the mafia know that after one of them is lynched it will be revealed to a certain extent the next day (the town will still have to consider that it is a mafia trick). So under what circumstances would they attack a partner in order to make themselves look more innocent? This part doesn't look too bad for YLC. Lord Winter was not a guaranteed lynch, YLC's vote contributed significantly to his lynching. But that is in hindsight. At the time, who know how many votes LW was going to get?

The other mark against YLC comes from the tiebreaker voting. He seemed to be in a hurry (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128298&postcount=285) to end the tiebreaker. When he thought it was a revote he wanted me lynched, when he thought it was a runoff and his vote would end it he switched to Seamus. He voted Seamus again in the 2nd tiebreak of sorts. His reasoning for these votes is sketchy, something about a "little voice in his head" and my post about lord winter.

In summary, his reasoning behind his votes is scant and his willingness to string anyone up and completely reverse his position is scummy, and becomes doubly so if we assume Lord Winter was mafia.

After writing this out I'm tempted to ignore the patient approach and vote for ylc now, but I think I'll wait to see what he says before deciding that.

************************

In summary I don't think either of these two can be considered trustworthy--they both need to be lynched imo.

Vote:Askthepizzaguy

Thermal

02-12-2009, 22:17

vote: YLC

I would leave ATPG alone on the bases of effort he put into his write up (Poor reasoning, but let him explain his points at least), when YLC is just as suspicious really, often avoiding accusations by being busy, true or false as it is unknown either way. Other than ATPG defending him for no reason his previous suicide vote just to change it, and then change it back, very dis honest townie behavior. Suicide moves are stupid anyway, but unvoting one, even if you change back to yourself is very suspicious. Finally he states his suspects, just to change his vote entirely when the vote is a run off and not completely from scratch, why should it matter?

shlin28

02-12-2009, 23:17

Hmm... ATPG and YLC are totally scum in my august opinion (note: I accused them yesterday, but ATPG's response just made my suspicion a lot lot worse)

His case against me is just ludicrous, and from his reasonings ANYONE who tried to become the CoP would be scummy as only Godfathers would do that... yeah right...

I also think his "SkyNet", although a worthy piece of work, is not a standard piece of post analysis machine that Holmes was (post count/post length is a lot better than opinions on their posts, more mechanical that way and less tinged by personal opinions.) so I would not trust it as much as Holmes.

Lynch ATPG and YLC my fellow citizens!

seireikhaan

02-12-2009, 23:56

Methinks you guys are missing the boat here.

LittleGrizzly

02-13-2009, 00:04

LG willingly withdrawing his vote on me,

Vote ? I haven't withdrawn a vote...

due to town pressure

I can't see anything wrong with conforming to what the town wants to a certain degree...

this is what i said

My 'attack' on Jolt seems to have brought a little suspicion or just criticism for bad townie behaviour, if you really believe im being counter productive to the town with my focus on Jolt i am willing to step back from it,

Which seems fair enough to me, i had a bad feeling about a certain player but everyone else didn't see it as paticularly helpful so i was willing to step back from it... which certainly seems ok to me, or would it be better for the town not to work together...

plus the fact that everyone has seen that I'm town seems wierd.

There are no confirmed innocents in this game... due to the rules even the dead aren't 100% confirmed (though likely)

I wish someone investigate him.

I actively encourage it!

I find his behaviour increasingly strange and counter-productive.

I already covered the strange part... the counter productive part could be wrong though... many times the town will lynch the wrong player so not sticking to the one or two suspects available could actually be more productive...

which i basically said with my line about no viable suspects...

the other reason which i may not have mentioned was in my last game i had a bad feeling about boudica and made a vote to that effect as well.. but i just assumed my instincts were clicking at nothing... and when i found out my instincts had been right (for once!) i was annoyed at myself... think i mentioned that at the end of th game...

So because of this i decided to pay a bit more attention to my instincts... unfortunatly due to your death it seems my instinct was well off... and i guess i probably owe you an apology... sorry

You mentioned being offended earlier in the game when i mentioned your english... i apologise for this also!

I may be wrong but mafia i am not..!

Andres

02-13-2009, 00:06

LittleGrizzly

02-13-2009, 00:19

We have had sasaki leading the lynching proceedings yesterday and now it appears sasaki and atpg are leading the lynch for this one... both are skillful players and could be mafia misleading us... don't be too quick to trust the logic of either...

Or really amusingly they are mafia working together to try and really confuse the crap out of us...(though i doubt it)

Ok here's my read on the situation... (i hardly ever make long posts so i am allowed two in a row with no wall of text complaints!)

YLC... probably not mafia... very risky strategy he employed which has put him right into the limelight and was extremely close to getting him killed yesterday and a top candidate for today... considering his situation before he employed this strategy would be a very bad mafia move...

Sasaki.. could be mafia leading us to lynch successive townies... or a helpful townie trying to pick out the mafia... i really couldn't begin to guess what he is...

ATPG.. my main reason to suspect him is because he try's so damn hard to look innocent, again its a risky strategy but he has shown a few times he is willing to die trying to prove his innocence as a townie... though he could have been building up to this mafia game and over the last few games gave himself the perfect cover

One last thing... I think we are putting far too much into getting the write ups from other games... it occured to me after we were analysing the text of first night kills that you could copy paste from somewhere... i didn't think of copy pasting a whole kill but it isn't a huge leap of logic for a mafia worrying about his writing style being detected... and then how hard excactly is it to go to a mafia game (whether you took part or not) and taking a kill from there, all it is is a little work, and most mafia are willing to put in that work

Some threads like the godfather even have thier own seperate summary thread... so you don't even have to look for the kills...

Reenk Roink

02-13-2009, 00:44

OK, so I'm going to be nice and somewhat validate all the work Askthepizzaguy did. :laugh4:

I went back and actually looked at your long post instead of just going on skimming what other people said you said about me.

I believe Reenk Roink could be mafia. He's devious enough to stay alive long enough to cause us damage. He's inscrutable. He's wacky and insane. He may have come up with the idea to mask the writing styles and borrow from previous games. He voted for Sasaki. He made a serious grab for Police Chief AND he got several people to vote for him, possibly others nominating him so he wouldn't appear suspect. I know that casts doubt on me but you know... *sigh*

OK first of all I didn't make any grabs for Chief of Police at all, it was thrown on me. I thought it would be funny if I could do the writeups but shlin wanted to be CoP badly and he actually had enough support behind it so I gave it to him. This is absolutely untrue.

Post 50: Self-incriminating joke. "I am the Godfather." He does stuff like this when he's guilty, too.

Post 113: Poses innocent-sounding question. "What does Chief of Police get to do anyway?" He's a mafia veteran and he should know this (I think... could be wrong)

Post 115: "Why is the town getting rid of my vote? Ah hell, voting is useless anyway, and I can be courteous without it. Elect: Reenk Roink"
Eager to survive to the endgame and he does usually abstain anyway.

Post 126: "I will defriend you if you don't vote for me Beefy."
Sounds like a joke, but he seriously seems to want the job.

Post 151: "Hmm, I was thinking of actually campaigning for this job (I would give most excellent Wanax writeups), but if shlin wants it, he may have it. Elect: shlin28 I request my followers to do the same and thank the ones with good intentions (think it is 9-7 shlin now)."
Changes his mind very late. Perhaps the high chance of being lynched eventually as Police Chief convinced you to abandon the strategy... or perhaps it was your mafia brethren demanding you keep your voting power.

Nothing Page 3. People murdered are Mafia Veterans.

246: "One of the reasons I gave up my claims to becoming the Po was to continue this noble tradition of abstaining, courteously"
Explains himself without being prompted to. Guilty much, Reenk?

300: Corrects flaw in tally but does not add to the discussion, he's usually talkative. He was watching the thread and not posting.

Nothing else Page 4. (at 80 posts per page on my system)

386: "Vote: Seamus Fermanagh. He is probably Mafia and tried to implicate me. I am absolutely not Mafia."
Now I trust Seamus Fermanagh too. Half-hearted, half-joking defense likely to not be detected as scummy. "He is probably Mafia"? explain how, Reenk.

388: "I put you in power and will remove you if need be."
Joke post, half-threatening, but not really. He's prompting the CoP to be more active. Well, Reenk, why don't YOU be more active, too? Saving your verbosity for the endgame?

395: "Sorry but I simply cannot allow Beefy to die this early yet again. He has been knocked off these games too early too frequently. I myself know the frustration when you join a bunch of Mafia games and are either voted off or killed early. To actually clear Beefy, here is an argument (so people can't say I'm not being helpful): The analysis on the writing styles is admirable but also, I feel it is far too exaggerated. Does anyone really believe that the guy who lifted the writeup from another game did research on all the games? He probably remembered a kill he liked and went with it. Yes there are people who would analyze kills and the game in general like that, but they are few, and the lazy are many. It is also easier than some people are saying to change writing styles. Look at the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Mafia V against the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Rise of the Mob. Both games interlapped by the way. You can find small changes (differing places of quotation marks, more sober punctuation use in one) as well as larger thematic changes (European vs American flavor, elaborate kills vs quick punchline kills). Look at Beefy's recent Fillet Royale game. Look how inconsistent the Watcher's letters are. All planned really.
Unvote: Seamus Fermanagh
Vote: Sasaki Kojiro
Sorry Sasaki but you will play the game if you are dead anyway. Save Beefy!"

Unnecessary defense of Beefy, votes for Sasaki. His post, carefully read, seems to be an attempt to mislead us. Unvotes Seamus.. unvoting behavior always piques my interest. He sees a chance to off Sasaki and he is THIRD ON THE BANDWAGON ON SASAKI, with no pressure on him. Safest and most scummy move in the entire mafia universe.

Tally as of post #390

187Beefyz = 2 (Seamus, Tincow)
Sasaki = 2 (GSC, YLC)
Abstain = 1 (White Eyes)

Nothing else page 5.

Post 411: "Ok, let's try to get a whole rollback of votes now, off both Sasaki and Beefy..."
Inconsistent play. Reactionary play. Unhelpful play.

416: "Trust me, it's different with Beefy, he really is one of the few "selfless townies".
Defending Beefy, but he cannot know Beefy is innocent. Scummy.

Nothing else page 6, and that's a lot of posts of silence after Tratorix questioned him thusly:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpo...&postcount=417

534: I believe this post reveals too much:

Boudica @Everyone: "Who would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?"
Reenk Roink:
"Seamus would be one and I won't tell you the second (it would be off a list of potential suitors). Ah heck I'll tell ya! I was going for Seamus and Beefy had I gotten to be the Godfather. Seamus would be the first choice because of old timessakes. Practical reasons in his favor would be that he's one of the best at keeping his behavior and he always seems to be innocent looking and live long. Beefy because I still must work with this extremely nice and funny guy. You can't win was so incomplete. Practical reason is that Beefy is amazing as Mafia as you have all seen. I also considered an elite veteran Seamus - Sigurd tandem but Sigurd has won far far too much so I know he understands that I would share the wealth. I also considered Aries and White eyes for spots. Unfortunately they tend to get lynched through no fault of their own, but are very funny guys and I know for a fact White eyes is really good (Aries probably is too). And the most important thing is that they play the game like I like to play. I also considered YLC who I never got to play a game with as Mafia, but talked with him a lot when he hosted Whispers. Plus even though suspicion is on him, he always stays alive."

An awful lot of thought on this topic, eh, Reenk? And who would you suggest you'd pick "if you were mafia", if you WERE mafia? How about innocent people in this game. Did I nail it? Please tell me I did. Seamus, Beefy, Sigurd, Ares, White Eyes, and YLC are all probably innocent if Beefy is guilty.

Post 544: Reenk is DEAD CENTER in the post count list. The perfect mafia hiding place if you're avoiding the bottom and CANNOT pass as a lurker. And by my count, he's quieter than usual.

Reenk had one post on page 7. Page 8:

614: "And my favorite kill lives on... Good job Mafia, good job. Vote: Sigurd"
Votes Sigurd... and he reminisces about previous mafia games and gives them a pat on the back. Scummy, scummy, scummy in my book. Ironic in retrospect if he were mafia = Bonus points when Reenk wins. He thinks just like I do in that regard.
So long and thanks for all the cluez.

632: "Hello Sigurd. I assure you I care not for the town's bandwagon. Of course I know too well that the charge of lurking is much too early. Also I don't believe it fits. Also, I don't believe you to be one who will use the same tactics. However, I am not the Mafia Sigurd. I may be crazy but I'm not careless with my life. Besides, the Godfather would obviously choose the better man."

LOL! Your slip is showing, Reenk. Defensive after being so quiet. I don't think so... you're yourself in this game. The same yourself as Prometheus, my mafia buddy. The "better man" is you... you won Fillet Royale. You won Prometheus. You're a dangerous character. Don't sell yourself short, because that Reenks of scum.

Only two posts page 8... one scummy vote, one scummy defense.

Nothing page 9. Hasn't spoken to me all game. Are you avoiding me, Reenk? You never have before. You talk more. You joke more. You think your votes through more. You try harder. You're not yourself. Bad performance from you as a townie, IMO.

The reason I defended Beefy is because I've always noticed he goes too early every single game and I know it gets frustrating. One guy I'm pulling for this game is Beefy to be sure. I'm pretty sure he's townie, but if he's Mafia, well, I'd still pull for him. :2thumbsup: :bow:

As for the rest, you either get suspicious of me because I made a joke or I didn't make a joke. :rolleyes4:

I've become a clown I see... :shame: :laugh4: :clown:

If I explain myself I'm guilty and if I don't explain myself and "avoid" people, I'm guilty. :rolleyes4:

Do you want me to open my paraconsistent toolbox to deal with your reasoning now.

Vote: Askthepizzaguy

I'm just going to get rid of you because I don't want to be questioned or examined anymore. I don't think you're guilty (you may be) but I like to remove threats against me and keep people who aren't so opposed to what I do. I also think that TinCow is absolutely some kind of non town thing, the way he said your case against me was good and such. Then he made some case about how he was a proven innocent and how that implied he didn't intend to mislead the town. Great kill Mafia, great kill. :bow:

Beefy187

02-13-2009, 00:50

Ill be frank. I like stunts or awesome tactic to catch the mafia. If what YLC was doing is sacrificing his life to gather some additional data for SkyNet then I applaud his selflessness.

However I want to ask you something. You claimed that Sigurd was innocent. I suppose by making your self guilty by voting your self and so on was trying to get your self lynched rather then causing collateral damage. Was that what you were trying to do? Or was there a secret treaty between you and Sigurd?

FoS: Tevash

For now. I want to hear response from ATPG before lynching Tevash.

EDIT:

@Reenk

Too early? I suppose your right :shame:

Cheers for that :2thumbsup:

ULC

02-13-2009, 01:15

Sigurd was an unwitting member - I picked him because of past games and current prejudices, nothing more.

Gaius Scribonius Curio

02-13-2009, 01:53

I for one don't believe the mafia will voluntarily drop back to one kill a night for two subsequent nights in a row this early in the game.

Yes, it can be a trick, but making your kills count, narrows down the odds of getting lynched by the townies who, in most games, act unpredicatable. Many mafiosi felt comfortable in the past, thinking they did very well getting no attention and eventually got lynched in the last rounds.

Following that, Lord Winter was very likely scum.

Sasaki is spot on about it being suspicious how ATPG all of the sudden changed his mind and voted Lord Winter.

Even if Lord Winter wasn't scum, it is still rather suspicious.

Also note that in the post in which he voted Lord Winter, he also said he would go after GSC the next round. Instead of doing that, he suggests that we lynch Reenk Roink, Tevashzat and shlin28 in the next three rounds.

In a way, assuming ATPG is scum, this puts GSC in a bad daylight as well. Was he just ATPG's scapegoat or was it a tactic to create distance between him and his mafia buddy?

Vote : Askthepizzaguy

Fos : GSC

I'm going to suggest that I was the scapegoat... The fact that ATPGs flimsy case against me was easily ripped to little pieces has nothing to do with me. I'd also agree that it is now more likely than not that Lord Winter was a mafioso, due to the reason you lay out. Every round they attempt to convince us there are less of them than we think they miss an oppurtunity to shorten the game. The longer it goes on the more likely the town will (consciously or unconsciously) lynch them.

OK, so I'm going to be nice and somewhat validate all the work Askthepizzaguy did. :laugh4:

I went back and actually looked at your long post instead of just going on skimming what other people said you said about me.

As for the rest, you either get suspicious of me because I made a joke or I didn't make a joke. :rolleyes4:

I've become a clown I see... :shame: :laugh4: :clown:

If I explain myself I'm guilty and if I don't explain myself and "avoid" people, I'm guilty. :rolleyes4:

Do you want me to open my paraconsistent toolbox to deal with your reasoning now.

Vote: Askthepizzaguy

I'm just going to get rid of you because I don't want to be questioned or examined anymore. I don't think you're guilty (you may be) but I like to remove threats against me and keep people who aren't so opposed to what I do.

I feel that ATPGs long case against Reenk may be flawed (and having read through it I still cannot comprehend just how long that must have taken... wow). That said I'm going to stick with what I said yesterday and take the line that he is acting fairly normally for him and therefore is not at the top of my suspect list. Also YLC did tell me during his strange 'lynch me' saga that he was involved in some sort of plan, and was very coy about what it was. This could be viewed as proof that he was attempting to assist ATPG's skynet in the manner he claimed. My reasoning for this being that were he a mafioso he wouldn't have admitted to there being a 'plan' at all.

This certainly doesn't exonerate ATPG who could have been using YLC, but it does make me question YLC's guilt.

Since I don't trust ATPG's judgement fully, and don't believe him guilty at this stage, I'm going to Vote: Quintus Julius Cicero

You seem to easily accept everything ATPG claims as gospel. Not just this round but almost since the beginning of the game. Due to ATPG's verboseness it would seem to be a particularly easy way for a mafioso to stay beneath the notice of most of the town. Many of your posts tend to be fairly short votes in line with the latest ATPG theory. You have a number of games under your belt and are quite capable of deciding things for yourself and of making capable analysis without relying on another townie (or even mafioso) to do it for you. As such you have raised my suspicions. Its hardly damning I know but....

Beefy187

02-13-2009, 02:22

I find the fact that Ignomorus still lives on highly suspicious. Will he be WoGged soon GH?

GeneralHankerchief

02-13-2009, 02:34

He's registered votes in two rounds, so he's not due for a while. As a matter of fact, nobody is.

Chaotix

02-13-2009, 03:05

Geez, ATPG, talk about an insane wall of text! How long did it take you to write that, three hours or so? It took me an hour to read it and all the posts following it. I applaud you for your effort, and it looks like this analysis will be a lot of help to us for this game. For this game, at least, your usefulness and helpfulness have far outweighed the sometimes-annoying quantity of your posts.

To YLC:
I probably should have figured you were all just playing mind games with us. You certainly like to do that sort of thing, what with the mafia games you've been hosting lately...
But don't think you're off the radar just yet. Whether you meant the words in those last posts or not, it's WIFOM if you try to use that as your innocence case.

And now:

Vote: Askthepizzaguy

I'm just going to get rid of you because I don't want to be questioned or examined anymore. I don't think you're guilty (you may be) but I like to remove threats against me and keep people who aren't so opposed to what I do. I also think that TinCow is absolutely some kind of non town thing, the way he said your case against me was good and such. Then he made some case about how he was a proven innocent and how that implied he didn't intend to mislead the town. Great kill Mafia, great kill.

Sorry, Reenk, but this is possibly the worst reasoning I've ever seen you give for a serious vote. First: If you don't think ATPG is mafia, then who do you suspect? Surely you must have some opinion about who may be guilty, or who's acting scummy? You're a smart one, Reenk. You will have noticed if someone's acting differently. And if by chance you haven't, whatever happened to "Reenk Roink abstains courteously" when there is no clear suspect?

And yet, you choose not to voice any opinion, and instead vote for somebody who you don't believe is guilty, but just want to stop from helping the town by questioning and examining. Tell me, are we supposed to just stop examining you and look for other suspects, because you said you didn't like people opposing you? Do you think ATPG will stop using SkyNet on you just because he's been lynched?

And then there's the reasoning that TinCow must be scum, even though he was killed when both mafia were still alive, just because he decided to agree with the logical parts of ATPG's post.

Vote: Reenk Roink

I'm getting the same vibe from you that I had in The Prometheus, now. Give it a couple rounds, we'll have a detective reveal from you.

naut

02-13-2009, 03:18

Methinks you guys are missing the boat here.
I'd have to agree. Despite ATPG's analysis being helpful now everyone is focused on it and the maf can hide while we bicker among our selves.

Three important things from the write-ups. The kill mentions grizzly bears, so the mafia have been paying attention to the banter between Jolt and LG. Second, the nude unicyclist "observes everything", perhaps a reference to a detective. Third, the boombox guy has no care in the world, maybe immune to something?

Beefy187

02-13-2009, 03:24

I'd have to agree. Despite ATPG's analysis being helpful now everyone is focused on it and the maf can hide while we bicker among our selves.

Three important things from the write-ups. The kill mentions grizzly bears, so the mafia have been paying attention to the banter between Jolt and LG. Second, the nude unicyclist "observes everything", perhaps a reference to a detective. Third, the boombox guy has no care in the world, maybe immune to something?

Jolt and LG thing was obvious to anyone who were active. That only maybe, slightly rules out lurkers but it doesn't help much..

Im guessing GH is doing the write ups other then the mafia write up. Either nude unicyclist and boombox guy are completely imaginative or thats GHs metaphor of those players. Who here could be nude unicyclist?? :juggle2:

Anyway the fact remains that ATPG provided us with some people who could be guilty. I cannot agree to every single word he says but I think its worth at least considering about it.

Whats your opinion on Reenk and Tevash?

LittleGrizzly

02-13-2009, 03:26

The kill mentions grizzly bears, so the mafia have been paying attention to the banter between Jolt and LG.

I did notice this, i just assumed it to be a little joke on the mafia's part... i assume they don't think including my name in jolt's kill description is going to get my lynched simply because we had some banter going... i kinda saw it as a throwaway comment...

Jolt and LG thing was obvious to anyone who were active. That only maybe, slightly rules out lurkers but it doesn't help much..

Hell even lurkers couldn't have missed it... you would just have to be flat out ignoring the thread to miss such a thing... but then you wouldn't be very good mafia...

naut

02-13-2009, 03:41

Whats your opinion on Reenk and Tevash?
Reenk is Reenk. You can't pigeon-hole him. To do so is dangerous.

Tevash. I'm unsure. I don't feel he's overly scummy. He is being a bit defensive, but he's not doing any of the other key mafia tells.

Reenk Roink

02-13-2009, 03:49

Sorry, Reenk, but this is possibly the worst reasoning I've ever seen you give for a serious vote. First: If you don't think ATPG is mafia, then who do you suspect? Surely you must have some opinion about who may be guilty, or who's acting scummy? You're a smart one, Reenk. You will have noticed if someone's acting differently. And if by chance you haven't, whatever happened to "Reenk Roink abstains courteously" when there is no clear suspect?

I abstain courteously (:bow:) in the first round out of respect to a tradition. I only rarely will abstain later in the game unless for some reason (such as trying for a no lynch or really nobody to vote for).

And yet, you choose not to voice any opinion, and instead vote for somebody who you don't believe is guilty, but just want to stop from helping the town by questioning and examining. Tell me, are we supposed to just stop examining you and look for other suspects, because you said you didn't like people opposing you? Do you think ATPG will stop using SkyNet on you just because he's been lynched?

I voiced strong opinions on both Askthepizzaguy and TinCow, so that's untrue. I have nothing against the town questioning and examining, just Askthepizzaguy and TinCow, so yet another false charge. Why is this Chaotix?

I voted for him because he's a threat to me. He's certainly not confirmed innocent by the way, I just feel he's 1) a detriment to me and 2) a detriment to the town at the moment by going after an innocent (me).

And then there's the reasoning that TinCow must be scum, even though he was killed when both mafia were still alive, just because he decided to agree with the logical parts of ATPG's post.

TinCow was awfully insistent that he was confirmed innocent and that a dead innocent's analysis would not be misleading. Both statements have been shown to be very suspect.

And these "logical parts" would be? TinCow had said earlier that Askthepizzaguy's "points on Reenk Roink and TevashSzat are well-analyzed, well-argued, and consistent." However, he never elaborated on this, and neither are you. I at least provided refutations to his charges as did TevashSzat.

Now, the first one may be true, if by "well-analyzed" you mean Askthepizzaguy did a lot of analysis. It however, has no bearing on the quality, which after reading through it I think is poor.

"Well argued" I'd flat out disagree with. The only thing Askthepizzaguy has is impressing SOME people with a lot of text. Some other people will be either put off or intimidated by it though. As for the quality itself, it's heavily based on old Mafia cliches ("third on the bandwagon" - I mean are you serious?) and

Saying it is "consistent" is the most damning part and makes me think either TinCow didn't read it carefully, didn't understand what he read, or just thinks I should be lynched for whatever reason, substance of Askthepizzaguy's post be damned.

Let me expose to you many inconsistencies of different types:

1) External inconsistencies:

Atpg says I "made a serious grab for Police Chief AND he got several people to vote for him, possibly others nominating him so he wouldn't appear suspect."

This is quite untrue when actually examining the voting for CoP, and looks even worse when Atpg himself was one of the bandwagoners for my election while I myself made the decisive vote to give it to shlin.

Askthepizzaguy also called the third on the bandwagon the "safest and most scummy move in the entire mafia universe"

If this is such a safe move, why is it on the Mafia FAQ and why is it used so frequently as a case? Sorry Atpg, try somewhere else...

2) Internal inconsistencies:

Well let's just have a field day with this shall we:

"Are you avoiding me, Reenk? You never have before. You talk more. You joke more. You think your votes through more. You try harder."

In many other places Atpg calls out my activity and questions why I don't put more reasoning in my votes. He wants me to talk and explain myself

And yet he also makes this case against me:

"Explains himself without being prompted to. Guilty much, Reenk?"

:rolleyes4:

Don't get me started on the jokes. Let's take a look at how many joke posts Atpg himself names:

Post 50: Self-incriminating joke. "I am the Godfather." He does stuff like this when he's guilty, too.

Post 126: "I will defriend you if you don't vote for me Beefy."
Sounds like a joke, but he seriously seems to want the job.

386: "Vote: Seamus Fermanagh. He is probably Mafia and tried to implicate me. I am absolutely not Mafia."
Now I trust Seamus Fermanagh too. Half-hearted, half-joking defense likely to not be detected as scummy. "He is probably Mafia"? explain how, Reenk.

388: "I put you in power and will remove you if need be."
Joke post, half-threatening, but not really. He's prompting the CoP to be more active. Well, Reenk, why don't YOU be more active, too? Saving your verbosity for the endgame?

:rolleyes4:

And more. I mean if you actually read his case, EVERY SINGLE ACTION I MAKE IS CONSTRUED IN A EXPLANATORY THEORY THAT MAKES IT SERVE SOME GUILTY PURPOSE - FURTHERMORE MANY OF THESE THEORIES ARE INCOMPATIBLE.

A case that has examples of play leading to a conclusion, or one that has a predetermined opinion and then makes everything into examples of it? You make the call...

I'm getting the same vibe from you that I had in The Prometheus, now. Give it a couple rounds, we'll have a detective reveal from you.

Ok...

The only great thing is that the Mafia will probably kill Atpg (and maybe you) to make me look guilty, but it's good because they are actually doing me a favor (I can dodge the suspicion and ensure a victory for Beefy and I :bow:)

seireikhaan

02-13-2009, 04:36

*sighs*

Does the town really need me to SPELL OUT EVERYTHING for it? I can't believe nobody has noticed it... :no:

Beefy187

02-13-2009, 04:43

*sighs*

Does the town really need me to SPELL OUT EVERYTHING for it? I can't believe nobody has noticed it... :no:

Goon!

naut

02-13-2009, 04:50

I've looked again. The only thing I can see is:

"held up by a pizza delivery car" a veiled reference perhaps? Or deliberately misleading?

Beefy187

02-13-2009, 04:53

I've looked again. The only thing I can see is:

"held up by a pizza delivery car" a veiled reference perhaps? Or deliberately misleading?

That will brings us another WIFOM. So we probably should ignore it.

seireikhaan

02-13-2009, 04:59

Sasaki Kojiro

02-13-2009, 05:00

*sighs*

Does the town really need me to SPELL OUT EVERYTHING for it? I can't believe nobody has noticed it... :no:

80's music isn't my forte...there's one person you could take the clues to be pointing at but I don't see anything conclusive. Don't see why there would be at this stage of the game.

naut

02-13-2009, 05:15

Well I figure that the person who killed you is the same as the killer last night. They make the same references to people, etc. I think I've got a basic idea why, but for the same reason they'd want to keep you alive...

Gaius would also have reason to kill you, since you know how he plays as Mafia. But, I don't think that's what you're getting at.

seireikhaan

02-13-2009, 05:19

TinCow

02-13-2009, 05:27

I think he's insinuating that he was killed because of who he voted for. On Day 2 (Day 1 was the election) it was shlin. His second vote on Ichigo wouldn't count because it was a forced vote between two people. However, this doesn't make much sense to me. khaan's vote on shlin seems to be largely irreverent in nature (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2127219&postcount=218). I don't see how any mafioso would think he was a threat, even if he was right in voting for shlin.

Sorry, khaan, I don't get what you're talking about. I don't see any reason for you to be so vague about it either, unless you're claiming to be a dead detective. If you are claiming that, it just wraps back around to the above, where I don't see why you would've been seen as a threat when you were killed. :shrug:

Sasaki Kojiro

02-13-2009, 05:29

*Sighs again*

Let's put it this way: I am NEVER killed randomly. The mafia never kills me so early without a :daisy: good reason. Why? Because I'm an diabolical scumbag, everyone knows it, and hence I am lynch bait. Now, go through day one, and figure out why the mafia would kill me on the second night.

You mean the first day of voting right...you have like 5 posts...a vote for shlin...a link to a post where you killed rdece as as mafia with a prostitute write up...a link to a couple posts from kung fu mafia...and a vote for ichigo which you apologize for.

The only reason I see for the mafia to kill you would be if you were the detective and hinted at one of the names in your posts. The song title clue from the day of your death would support this, perry mason is the name of a famous literary detective. I just don't quite get your clues lol.

Well, which games have had executions by sharks with lasers?

Gaius Scribonius Curio

02-13-2009, 05:32

I was also looking back, and only three posts caught my attention. His vote for Shlin, referred to above. an assertion that in Chicago two lurkers acheived a total victory, but as a number of people have said its a little early for that. And a statement on election day...

Please do not elect me, I am mafia

It could be that he suggesting Shlin is guilty, but I don't see the connection between a few idle statements and a swift death at the hands of the mafia.

seireikhaan

02-13-2009, 05:53

I am making NO suggestions that Shlin is guilty. Au contraire, methinks he's completely innocent.

TinCow

02-13-2009, 05:53

Song Analysis:

Night 1:
Deaths: Tratorix, CountArach
Song: Karn Evil 9, First Impression, Part 2 by Emerson, Lake, and Palmer
Lyrics:
Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We're so glad you could attend
Come inside! Come inside!
There behind a glass is a real blade of grass
be careful as you pass.
Move along! Move along!

Come inside, the show's about to start
guaranteed to blow your head apart
Rest assured you'll get your money's worth
The greatest show in Heaven, Hell or Earth.
You've got to see the show, it's a dynamo.
You've got to see the show, it's rock and roll ....

Right before your eyes we pull laughter from the skies
And he laughs until he cries then he dies then he dies
Come inside the shows about to start
Guaranteed to blow your head apart

You gotta see the show
It's a dynamo
You gotta see the show
It's rock and roll

Soon the Gypsy Queen in a glaze of Vaseline
Will perform on guillotine
What a scene! What a scene!
Next upon the stand will you please extend a hand
to Alexander's Ragtime Band
Roll up! Roll up! Roll up!
See the show!

Performing on a stool we've a sight to make you drool
Seven virgins and a mule
Keep it cool. Keep it cool.
We would like it to be known the exhibits that were shown
were exclusively our own,
All our own. All our own.
Come and see the show! Come and see the show! Come and see the show!
See the show!

Commentary: Seems like a song to welcome us all to the game. Then again, "Karn" in the title sounds a like like "khaan". Seireikhaan is murdered the following night.

Night 2:
Deaths: Seireikhaan, boudica
Perry Mason by Ozzy Osbourne
Lyrics:
On his way to dinner when it took him by suprise
And with one pull of the trigger he would vanish overnight
Dancing by the roadside, holding on for dear life
Then a gun from out of nowhere made a widow of his wife

I dont mind, single file down the runway
Feelin fine, and Ill see you my friend
Over and over again

Who can we get on the case?
We need perry mason
Someone to put you in place
Calling perry mason

Riding painted horses, oh the kids they love it so
You can see it on their faces, how they love the wind to blow
Minding my own business like my mama always said
But if I dont try to help him they could wind up on the front page

I dont mind, draw the line then draw me an arrow
Feelin fine, then Ill see you my friend
Over and over again

Who can we get on the case?
We need perry mason
Someone to put you in place
Calling perry mason again, again

Wake me when its over, tell me its all right
Just keep on talking baby, Ive been doing this all night
How much did you give me, tell me itll be all right

Who can we get on this case?
We need perry mason
Someone to put you in place
Calling perry mason, again, again, again, again

Commentary: Appropriate theme for a mafia game. Perry Mason was a lawyer. I am a lawyer, and I was the next person killed. Is this a coincidence?

Alternate Theory: Perry Mason indicates that the Detective just died. The problem with this is that Perry Mason was a lawyer, not a detective.

Night 3:
Deaths: TinCow,
Woke Up This Morning by Alabama Three
Lyrics:
I'm gonna take you down
Deep down to the front lines

You woke up this morning
Got yourself a gun,
Mama always said you'd be
The Chosen One.

She said: You're one in a million
You've got to burn to shine,
But you were born under a bad sign,
With a blue moon in your eyes.

You woke up this morning
All that love had gone,
Your Papa never told you
About right and wrong.

But you're looking good, baby,
I believe you're feeling fine,(shame about it),
Born under a bad sign
With a blue moon in your eyes.
Chorus
You woke up this morning
Got a blue moon in your eyes
You woke up this morning
Got a blue moon in your eyes

You woke up this morning
The world turned upside down,
Thing's ain't been the same
Since the Blues walked into town.
But you're one in a million
You've got that shotgun shine. (shame about it)
Born under a bad sign,
With a blue moon in your eyes.
You woke up this morning
Got a blue moon in your eyes
You woke up this morning
Got a blue moon in your eyes

When you woke up this morning everything you had was gone. By half past ten your head was going ding-dong.
Ringing like a bell from your head down to your toes,
like a voice telling you there was something you should
know. Last night you were flying but today you're so low
- ain't it times like these that make you wonder if
you'll ever know the meaning of things as they appear to
the others; wives, mothers, fathers, sisters and
brothers. Don't you wish you didn't function, don't you wish you
didn't think beyond the next paycheck and the next little
drink? Well you do so make up your mind to go on, ?cos
when you woke up this morning everything you had was gone.

woke up this morning,
woke up this morning,
woke up this morning,
You wanna be the Chosen One.

woke up this morning,
woke up this morning,
woke up this morning,
You got yourself a gun.

Commentary: Multiple references to guns, which is appropriate to the game, but doesn't lead to much. The only thing I can think of is once again the song title. Woke up in the Morning. What gets most of us up in the morning? Caffeine. What has caffeine? Jolt Cola. Guess who's killed the next night... (might be stretching this one a bit)

Night 4:
Deaths: Jolt
Escalator of Life by Robert Hazard
Lyrics:
They got my Mazda at the E-Z Park It
At the rock & roll supermarket
Muzak music make me feel so funny
I went and spent all my money
We're riding on the escalator of life
We're shopping in the human mall
We're dancing on the escalator of life
Won't be happy 'til we have it all
We want it all
Escalator of life - up and down
Escalator of life - round and round
There's 111 choices
Don't listen to those little voices
I don't let the guilty feeling shake me
You can have your cake and eat it baby
We're riding on the escalator of life
We're shopping in the human mall
We're dancing on the escalator of life
Won't be happy 'til we have it all
Hey girl, I'm a personal friend of Gloria Vanderbilt
I got all the gold in the world around my neck
Come ride the steel dinosaur
Run wild in the jungle
Its a Zulu Nation
Seduction, sacrifice, a new sensation
Nothing ever changes
We're riding on the escalator of life
We're shopping in the human mall
We're dancing on the escalator of life
Won't be happy 'til we have it all

Commentary: The write-up specifically says "he seemed to be playing the song's climax over and over again." So, the climax of the song is important. Having never heard this song before, I don't know what the climax is. Triple number 111 indicates 777Ares777? Eating indicates Beefy? Dancing refers to (the mafia player formerly known as) Rythmic? Impossible for me to predict anything from this.

Alternate Theory: The reference to "Don't listen to those little voice" and "I don't let the guilty feeling shake me" are somehow important.

Conclusion: :shrug: I think the songs are important, but nothing seems to click just right. I definitely feel like something is going on with them, particularly with the emphasis on the 'climax' of the N4 song, but I haven't found anything worth taking to the bank.

seireikhaan

02-13-2009, 05:57

TC- I think the music is meant to throw us off. Writeup analysis is, in my view, a rather fruitless gesture. Focus on the meat, not the seasonings.

Sasaki Kojiro

02-13-2009, 06:01

^^Haha, I'm at the point where that post makes me say: "Fruitless? focus on the meat? Lynch Beefy!!!!" :laugh4:

My impression was that the first song simply welcomed us to the game, the 2nd indicated that the detective had died (perry mason is sort of a detective according to wikipedia), the third indicated that we'd lynched mafia as it's the intro to the sopranos. The climax of the 4th song, based on youtube, is:

Hey girl, I'm a personal friend of Gloria Vanderbilt
I got all the gold in the world around my neck
Come ride the steel dinosaur
Run wild in the jungle
Its a Zulu Nation
Seduction, sacrifice, a new sensation
Nothing ever changes

But I believe khaan is referring to his posts:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2127219&postcount=218
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2127396&postcount=235
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2127408&postcount=238
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128433&postcount=302
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showpost.php?p=2128511&postcount=311

Seamus Fermanagh

02-13-2009, 06:05

Vote: Pizza. You twigged my radar at first because of the historic kills -- and I know you've back researched threads. By itself, not enough. The stunt with YLC was annoying, but not enough. Seeing my commentary on post counts and then going berzerk with posts was almost too calculating. Sasaki's points contribute. None enough in themselves, but taken together it has my vote.

'khaan. You have me pondering.

Numerous other threat levels to evaluate. Hmmmmm.

seireikhaan

02-13-2009, 06:07

'khaan. You have me pondering.
Nice of you to join us, SEAMUS.

naut

02-13-2009, 06:16

Nice of you to join us, SEAMUS.
Subtle much. :laugh4: