Let's be clear - to all intents and purposes Greece has defaulted. It can't pay its debts and others are being forced to do so for it. The only debate is whether the resulting loss is taken by governments (via bailout funds) or by the banks that hold its loans.
For me the scariest chart I saw throughout the whole financial crisis in '08 had nothing to do with bank losses but showed the volume of global trade. It fell off an enormous cliff because banks were not extending the finance necessary to keep it going. World trade is the world economy.
Whatever you think about the causes of all these issues (and I am increasingly coming to the view that there was clear fraudulent activity on a massive scale in the origination and packaging of the sub-prime mortgage loans) one thing is clear to me: the banks are in too much of a mess to be simply cut loose. This was true in '08 and it remains true now because substantially the same problem exists and has simply been moved from one place to another.
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