Tarot Mafia

[grr]

Vibes, I think it was Insomnia that said something about Ladd not having strong reads and his pushes has been on town, that I vibed with.

Also, his 180 on me is opportunistic. And while his reads looks good on a glance, he still has gemma as town and maybe the team is just Gemma/Ladd/Maple and Gemma buses them both to go deep since they're both is the consensus PoE.

meh this is kind of. such a... default line sorry? the vibes thing is fine and pushing town is fine. lol. i mean sure if ladd/maple it makes somewhat sense he'd do that here, what u think of benneh's posts on you/maple wagons then?

[EnderWiggin]

I was sad that Sunbae didn't get back to me.

Today wasn't a good day but gonna give it a fair shake.

[EnderWiggin]

@Wisdom
@EnderWiggin

what were your reasons to think the sheep kill was performed by town during early day 2?

I... What?

I think I shrugged and was annoyed and went along with the fact that people were saying that but I don't remember saying I specifically thought this???

Time to ISO myself and see if I can see what you mean.

[EnderWiggin]

Annoyed because if Sheep was killed by town it meant town killed my strongest townread lmao. (Sorry Dya but Sheep was obvious town imo =P)

[Dolby]

So on one hand I kinda hate Wisdom's positioning on Ladd today bc it feels like they are coming to what is the right position for the thread state. For example, ladd coming in sussing Wisdom isn't something that happened suddenly though I beleive it is motivated. Ladd did come in on day two questioning Wisdom's read on Vanta, and had other posts where he was not happy with what Wisdom was saying on day two. I think it's a bad line of logic and like, not reflective of what happened, and is largely a adjustment to the thread state rather than a honest read.

Ah that's how I phrased it, makes sense!

Yeah right now I'd say...

Top town
Colonel
Jan
Rask

Leaning town
Ender
Ladd

Probably also town
Arctic
Dya
Insomnia
Stett

Null
Benneh
Knights
Maple
Monte (I still can't recall 1 post from him and always forgets he exists)
Sunbae

Wolf lean
Dolby
Gemma
Vanta

like Ladd was a clear townread yesterday, and I just don't understand why he's dropping today from Maple beyond attachment to Gemma, and I've talked a bit about Wisdom's Gemma read in a post (not extensively), but idk, I would expect to see more on Gemma given that Gemma is a pretty consensus low level townread for the thread. Not neccessarily advocating to oust Gemma, but to get Gemma not as townread.

I also just don't like the shift to "ladd/maple w/w unlikely because they are not with Gemma" to just slamming Gemma in with them in the post above this. If Wisdom had a strong articulated Gemma read I could be fine with this, but they don't, they haven't really written a much to justify Gemma's position day two and later.

On the other hand I do want Wisdom gone third out of Wisdom/ladd/Maple, primarily because Wisdom has this post here

I forgot about both Mont existing when I wrote that. Ben too, really, but it wouldn't have changed my point.

While it's not worth much, I thought that Benneh in a few bursts of posts (214 to 376 in his iso) varied shitposting with solving in a way that I associate with town PoV, but it's not worth much and doubt it's towny for him specifically.

Maple is mostly a bs read. I liked his talk about getting reversed but when Jan started talking about it I kinda changed my mind, doing mech stuff to mislead is exactly what I expect from w!Maple.

Sunbae just sounds pure.

I think this is bad for Maple at this point in the thread to say. On the other hand I can't give this to much credit because Wisdom makes a reads list without Maple in their susses, instead having them smack dab in five or six nulls, with me, Vanta, and Gemma as their pushes

Wisdom takes a break from the thread and comes back with this

Saw the claim summary above. Maple's posting is pinging me. What's the current vote count?

but this is like immediately after Maple jumps from two votes to four and is basically the only wagon. If this post comes 100 posts earlier, I could give it credit, but I don't think Wisdom would have made this post 100 posts earlier (bc they are wolfing and Maple wasn't as in danger)

Despite this, thisis still enough to, if Maple flips w, to want to go for ladd first wisdom second, but I'm not gonna cry in any order bc I have no strong take on who is a power role in the trio

Wisdom I really need you to justify your Gemma sus tbh. Like, you've been using Gemma to justify a fair bit today wrt Ladd and Maple and it makes me feel like you don't actually want to be on Maple. I also like, have a townread on gemma and think your d2 bottom three of me/gemma/vanta is pure, and what you entered with with me/gemma/vanta/monty is pure

that's another thing, I don't like how Wisdom's pressure on Maple largely comes in when Maple is sussed (most visible on day two) and doesn't really factor in when Maple is in a safe position. I think I said that Wisdom's d3 wrt Maple could be displaying towny disconnection from the thread, but when it's all in service of elevating a probable wolf I just can't give credit to that

[Dolby]

Annoyed because if Sheep was killed by town it meant town killed my strongest townread lmao. (Sorry Dya but Sheep was obvious town imo =P)

ender, you're gonna have your chance to be a hero and put Sunbae in the dirt day six

[EnderWiggin]

So I got to Insomnia's claim that Ladd should have a better sus pool and went to check Saints and Sinners (Last v/v game with Ladd for me) to prove it wrong. (Which was a ~eh because he did have a solid push against Syn on D1, and was one of the reasons that wagon got going although Rask was a big pilot too.)

And I might have the dumbest read ever but...

Benneh in Saints and Sinners was town. They also saw someone sus an early intro post of mine (Zack did it in that game.)

They then did the "Omg I felt the same thing" and cheerleadered sus on me. To which I ended up sussing them all the way to F4. (Lol Hally owned us.)

I'm just flirting with the idea that this is literally just Benneh's towngame and somehow I just rub him wrong early and then he rubs me wrong in response.

Ngl I was so excited to find this lmao

[EnderWiggin]

ender, you're gonna have your chance to be a hero and put Sunbae in the dirt day six

Hot.

[Dolby]

I still need to reread Benneh, Sunbae, and Gemma. Possibly Ladd as well again bc I have given more time to reevalutions in Maple/Wisdom than him and I will probably need to decide which of the two I want tomorrow, but that is unfortunately a problem for tomorrow

[Dolby]

glad to be in the thread with you again Ender. I am at work but anything you want me to look at? I'm not ISOing again today except for maybe ladd or someone with around 100 posts or less (knights, monty, vanta)

[ladd]

ok lemme collect this rq.

ladds posts on Wisdom (no comments yet)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

@ladd do i understand correctly it's basically just the mech? did you have any other thoughts besides mech wrt wisdom since your opinion changed? um and about the mech did you, think about dyachei's roleclaim that they have a vig shot that gets blocked when target is visited by another person does that in some way mesh with a village/wolf firefighter? (my gth take is a village power role thats only function is to block another village powerrole is kinda... uh, unlikely ig? Is that correct, also @insomnia just in case u have thots, but if she is a wolf im not quite sure how the wolves are to work out how they would have to use it either)

long before the claim you kinda had a "if im wrong on someone it'd be wisdom" line um, do you remember why you were conflicted?

I didnt like their d2 posts i said so on d2 already but both if their push on vanta and gemma felt bad (and still do)

And no i dont see much sense in that use for firefighter



@Dolby why are u just assuming me/maple/wisdom should all be killed b2b2b? Thats incredibly lazy iyam

I honestly am not convinced at all maple/wisdom are w/w (tho i have no real reason for this, just kind of a feeling) and i am a villager

[EnderWiggin]

glad to be in the thread with you again Ender. I am at work but anything you want me to look at? I'm not ISOing again today except for maybe ladd or someone with around 100 posts or less (knights, monty, vanta)

Only thing I can think of is sanity check my excitement about my Saints and Sinners Benneh similarity to how he treated me this game.

I'm gonna finish catching up then try to re-eval Ladd.

[ladd]

I honestly would yolo it and kill in knights/sunbae/benneh next (tho it depends from wisdom(or maple) flip)

[Dolby]

I think they are just wolves and am annoyed at manti

Also I think that Wisdom is kinda treating Maple like a wolf partner during d2 in that they vocalize a sus but don't act on it or even reflect on it until Maple is in danger

Have had a lot on how the differing treatment on Maple from certain slots I think is gamestate motivated and not genuinely evalution

[Dolby]

Like, if I look at Maple I see a wolf. Maple is my strongest wolf and the more I look at how day is going Maple does not look like a towny who knew they were gonna be the d3 yeet from SOD3.They look to me like a mafia who is just present and hoping it somehow gets off them and onto someone else

I feel like Wisdom's Maple read has been opportunistic. I do not like what Wisdom has been doing with their Gemma read since SOD2. I think there could be towny disincongruence with Wisdom not sussing Maple until I mentioned something, but at the same time it feels like Maple is only mentioned when Maple is already in danger, and if Maple isn't in danger, the sus went away. I also think by posting Wisdom is likely a wolf, and the Gemma/Vanta/Dolby reads they had on D2 were 0/3. I'd expect more on Gemma if they are tunneling Gemma, which their reads, especially today, seem to be suggesting, but their actions do not. They haven't been strongly going for Gemma past d2 beyond votes, no efforts of persuasion. It's just a read that's there.

[Dolby]

Ladd if Maple/Wisdom are v/v who are the wolves iye? I'm assuming some combo of Benneh/Sunbae/Ender but once you get out of there should be a fourth who I am at least somewhat actively townreading atm

[grr]

ok so i crossreferenced my progression ladd -> wisdom and wisdom -> ladd and pull the quotes from when they both changed from v to w reads:

Ah that's how I phrased it, makes sense!

Yeah right now I'd say...

Top town
Colonel
Jan
Rask

Leaning town
Ender
Ladd

Probably also town
Arctic
Dya
Insomnia
Stett

Null
Benneh
Knights
Maple
Monte (I still can't recall 1 post from him and always forgets he exists)
Sunbae

Wolf lean
Dolby
Gemma
Vanta

I honestly dont really get why u feel so strongly about it

If all i read was eod, jan would look bad iyam

He defended syn and is clearly not spewed wolf so id say it worked


I just read eod again and what i find strange is how much jan suddenly cares once syn becomes a wagon, like he was pretty chill until the syn wagon and then he goes "ham"



@Wisdom why dolby so low? Why gemma?

Dolby is mostly a PoE slot right now.

Gemma isn't doing much with her time in thread and it doesn't seem like she have more thoughts than she's sharing if you know what I mean with that.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

But also a bit of vanity because I wanna see if I hit a wolf d1 and that'd probably clear me

V
Ladd
Insomnia
Bop
Artic
Grr
Dya
Gemma
Stett

The rest tier 1
Jan -not wolf with rask
Rask -not wolf with jan
Wisdom -claimed fightfighter...will hopefully clear up a bit later itg
Ender - not with dolby
Dolby-not with ender
Vanta-posts look good but just v low volume
Knights-looks good from eod but i just cant bring myself to have him higher onky based in posting, sorry


The rest tier 2
Benneh
Sunbae
Maple
Monty


I am kinda between 2 worlds right now:

1) i am off on more than 1 of my ender/wisdom/jan/rask v reads, sunbae/benneh are villas, maybe maple is too, maybe not. We are probably ok

2) sunbae/maple are w/w, benneh may be a wolf (or not, i honestly dont have a great read on his posts so far), knights i really doubt is a wolf with sunbae so would be a villa here, jan/rask woild be v as well so options are like super limited


I just think maple is the least villagey person, i didnt really like their iso nor pushes and the reversed stuff seems straight out of manti wolf playbook.havent played with manti in like years tho




With that being said, i will never votr anyone in my v tier but am open to voting anyone below at eod depending on how the rest of the day evolves

Gonna save the rest of my posts for eod cause i dont wanna be limited

Should be 40

so till here both kinda v-reading each other

There is something about firefighter claims that spooks me lmao

Like they always seem fake to me even when they are real

@artic i dont get what u are saying about me/jan? I villa read him d1, thought his eod was bad and pushed him d2 (i def voiced concerns) and then re settled to him being okaysh


Anyway there is max 1 wolf in rask/jan/wisdom

prolly no, in fact i am considering that wisdom could be a wolf




i kinda wanna lunch benneh ngl

Wisdom/jan arent w/w cause there is no way the wolves plan was for them to both claim pr b2b IYAM

wisdom/ender i guess it s possible tho i still villaread ender

Btw benneh, my main push d2 was maple. I was voting them all day until they claimed confirmable role, i thinknits really easy to disalign them and me (even from d1 posts)


For the rest i dont agree with clearing wisdom from rask flip cause i dont think visor would put a firefighter just to ckunter a poor neutral. Like u are really putting a neutral arso itg which is super hard to play and also giving thr village a counter? Iyam no


I think rask was prolly like an sk who was telling the truth abiut their shots but got unlucky

I'm starting to suspect ladd is a wolf who's pocketing/whiteknighting me tbh, but it's hard to explain why

But when I think that there's 3-4 wolves in 14 players (right?) and that he's alive it's easy to think he's a wolf.

Like, the easiest world is it's like Gemma/Vanta/Dolby/Monte but it's never that easy. Ladd's easy to tinfoil, and then we have Knights and Benneh who I've got no clue on, and Ender who I can't remember a single d2 post from but I read he claimed pr.

Dya's town. Grr's probably town. I still want to think Jan is my D1 Town Clear and won't re-evaluate unless alive end game, if he's town pr he'll just die eventually anyway. And Maple who I don't know what his deal is.

My goal for today is finding 8 villagers, I have 3 right now +2 potential pr's. I'm soon done with work so can put some more work in when I get home.

vote:wisdom

I will be back tomorrow

---

so like. @Wisdom ur read on ladd develops like, super reactive, and not in a good way imo? like u arent prodding him or anything or ask him why do u sus me now you just kinda, state you might be pocketed at some point (which is also a bit lagging behind because he's clearly started sussing you already).

[grr]

Vote: Wisdom

[EnderWiggin]

Ftr I think Wisdom is ~also good.

Mostly cause that last night interaction with me felt very much like wasting my time with questions when I am obviously the one who most has very limited chance to do anything in thread. And the more time I'm not doing any solving the easier it is to push me later.

[ladd]

Ladd if Maple/Wisdom are v/v who are the wolves iye? I'm assuming some combo of Benneh/Sunbae/Ender but once you get out of there should be a fourth who I am at least somewhat actively townreading atm

I dont think they are v/v but honestly even in that world my read would not change much? Like atm i am pretty sure about my v reads so poe would stay the same

Ill work from wolf flips to try to clear people in the poe but i wouldnt even know to begin to revaluate on my v reads cause again they all seem relatively easy

[EnderWiggin]

Also good as in Also a good wagon.

Esp after their drop of me when it was convenient.

[Dolby]

This game

@Jan its nothing mega deep, just these posts in particular pinged me

emphasizing the vote on you was a joke twice/clarifying his intent just pings me a bit

the post about insom pings me for the 'kinda sus early' 'but p6 insom hits diff' when early on was mostly intro posts and it feels like somewhat of an exaggeration for something i viewed as either null or just irrelevant from insom (but ender being around to clarify which posts early he sus'd would help tbf)

the post about newcomb is just super awkward. its mostly fluff about his willingness to vote newcomb as a wolf in a game from a year ago segueing into 'why are you reading him?' with clarification that he doesnt even have a read on newcomb

i cant really explain the read beyond that. i admit its kinda meh but i don't really have much else to work on rn. his other posts in the flurry were ~fine i agree but for my money he's the wolfiest of the interesting/non-cop-out yeets on the table we're likely heading to (sheep/knights) that i think have more villa equity

I actually think that this is less focused on and pushed than the saints game but tbh it's fine bc he was saying he wasn't at his best and he had tired energy when he was saying stuffin the thread at eod1.

I think it's fine though, and I think the reasoning connected to insomnia specifically matches really well with the reasoning in the Saints game. And on newcomb it also just kinda matches that he doesn't like what he is perceiving as a pretty soft read.

Feels like it aligns with a kind of wave of anti-Arctic sentiment that arrived around that time that makes it feel opportunistic and whereas hally has fleshed out a read/reason to find Arctic wolfy I just don’t get that sense with ender that it’s that deep and more just idk, wish washy in a way

plus the earlier thing about logic

"
ender - i don't really like ender's posts this day phase but i kinda think of my bottom 4 reads he's most likely to flip v of them based off whatever arbitrary metric is going off in my brain right now while i write this stuff. i'd lunch him still but i'd rather go logic first."

lol yeah you just ping Benneh, willing to stop here

also the more I think about it the more having wisdom as more towny than ladd is kinda a crime

[grr]

I believe this is the current vc, don't count on it am exhausted.

---

Maple 5 nebjiamn, insomnia, Enderwiggin, Wisdom, Dolby
Wisdom 3 Gemma, ladd, grr
ladd 2 Montmorency, dyachei
Jan 1 theknightsofneeee

[grr]

Ftr I think Wisdom is ~also good.

Mostly cause that last night interaction with me felt very much like wasting my time with questions when I am obviously the one who most has very limited chance to do anything in thread. And the more time I'm not doing any solving the easier it is to push me later.

yeah, first of all ladds and wisdoms interactions look unlikely v/v, vibes etc idk lol. Wisdom looks worse imo, entire progression from wisdom -> ladd looks worse than the other way round, however not excluding w/w. And several people said before ladd/wisdom likely have fur (didistetter, dont remember who else but they were not the only one).

[grr]

btw before that vc i just posted i was voting u, did u have any thots on people voting you? or the vc in general.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

i think prize for most votechanges today so far goes to dolby hehe :P

[grr]

btw before that vc i just posted i was voting u, did u have any thots on people voting you? or the vc in general.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

i think prize for most votechanges today so far goes to dolby hehe :P

@ladd soz

[Dolby]

Also good as in Also a good wagon.

Esp after their drop of me when it was convenient.

Tpbh Ender I do not think this post is the worst thing ever with regard to their read on you because they are shading basically everyone who wasn't in their strongest townreads

I'm starting to suspect ladd is a wolf who's pocketing/whiteknighting me tbh, but it's hard to explain why

But when I think that there's 3-4 wolves in 14 players (right?) and that he's alive it's easy to think he's a wolf.

Like, the easiest world is it's like Gemma/Vanta/Dolby/Monte but it's never that easy. Ladd's easy to tinfoil, and then we have Knights and Benneh who I've got no clue on, and Ender who I can't remember a single d2 post from but I read he claimed pr.

Dya's town. Grr's probably town. I still want to think Jan is my D1 Town Clear and won't re-evaluate unless alive end game, if he's town pr he'll just die eventually anyway. And Maple who I don't know what his deal is.

My goal for today is finding 8 villagers, I have 3 right now +2 potential pr's. I'm soon done with work so can put some more work in when I get home.

but they did have a TR on you before they claimed PR and idk I just feel like it's looking to find a reason to get rid of a TR constraining them anyway

[ladd]

btw before that vc i just posted i was voting u, did u have any thots on people voting you? or the vc in general.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

i think prize for most votechanges today so far goes to dolby hehe :P

I am gonna be real, i had no idea was the vc was. I assume wagons will be wisdom/maple at eod anyway


i think this game i was voted by you/insomnia/stett/(maybe gemma?) right? idk if i am missing anyone else

my thought is that u are all villas, idk if you wanted anything more deep but dont have anything

[Dolby]

hmmm maybe Wisdom is worse than Maple tbh

Anyone want to sell me on that?

[ladd]

I am kinda living in a knights wolf world right now, that is probably my hottest take

I get that people hate making pure setup/mechanical reads WRT clearing people.

but I think the logic of 'why would wolf!wisdom claim firefighter if he would reasonably expect to get counterclaimed? and there is no way he could reasonably know there was an actual neutral in the game prior to raskol flip' logic is pretty sound and IMO clearing for wisdom.

I'll see if I can supplement it with a reads based reason to villa read wisdom as well but they seem like the obvious mislynch that people are pushing unnecessarily atm.

I hated this post today and if you eliminate the syn vote at eod1 their posting just isnt good imo?

their jan push is obsolete by now, their d1 was wolfy (imo, but newcomb agreed!)

I see people saying "knight would tried harder as a wolf" but that read has an accurcay way below rand ime

EoD1 sure looks good from knights but they were already a wagon and widely suspected, I dont think it's really such a crazy buss for them to make. If they wolfside at EoD they just risk both of them going down