Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Kagemusha]

I have still akin to 500 kilometers to drive home, but once there i am going to start showing my lines drawn to the air based on first day, in case i happen to perish n7ght one. My current conclusion is that GH should be default lynch for day two, unless something changes drastically.

[reinoe]

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.

1. Logic had 5 votes at that time so hammer was not likely.

2.I don't remember seeing that you weren't scumreading me and it's ultimately irrelevant. The vote on me is not the primary point. That has little to do with what I'm saying and I don't know why you keep trying to deflect to it. I'm pointing out that there is a complete disconnect between what you want and what you did. You wanted to vote logic or El barto (or apparently GH) but did none of it, despite having multiple chances to do so. It looks like you were completely indifferent to what was going on during the day.

3.

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.

What "thing" with GH are you talking about? This was the last post you made (re-inforcing your support for a logic lynch who had only 5 votes at the time). If you're trying to say your "tis strange" comment is you scumreading him then that's weaksauce.

it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

No, it's not clear.

Tangent. But there's been some recent soft-defense of Zack from you without actually talking about Zack directly.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes, the tl;dr version.

Page 1: NAI

Page 2: 152 feels significantly townie enough to mention it to you. I even think he might have rustled Zack with his joke suspicion, but I'm hunting townies so let's stick to that. I feel like his joke leans list with Monty as third party gave away the joke. Otherwise it's Zack/GH/Pizza all being found as suspicious before we got rolling, which is less obviously the joke but more like the punchline. Humor is a good thing to consider, and Winston's humor is good here, even if he might have been accidentally right on someone. Nothing locking here yet.

Page 3: NAI

Page 4: no posts

Page 5: no posts

Page 6: Seems like his joke suspicion on Zack has begun to take a mild turn for the worse. Just noting it. Here he seems to be voicing real suspicion on GH and Zack, or at least a desire to put pressure on those slots. 437 seems to indicate real suspicion there. But here we go, 439. I'll quote the relevant posts below. Then Logic in 457. See bottom analysis for more. This is quite telling.

Page 7: 508 demonstrates a dichotomy between him and Zack. Don't see them being w/w. Again, someone is shading Winston outright and he's almost oblivious to it, just taking Zack on the level and responding to him on the level, despite his mild suspicions on Zack. If this were distancing, this is deliciously subtle acting that you never see. By 509 he seems to let go of the early Zack suspicion. Then in 511 bam! The Logic vote coupled with this is real suspicion is a good indicator. After a quick hop onto El Barto, when Barto votes him back, he's back on Logic. 553 hates the fact that his vote on Logic looks like a sheep of me. Page 6 and 7 are great quick peeks for those of you at 80 posts per page like me, to get a feel for WH in context.

Page 8: NAI

Page 9: no posts

Page 10: Post 792 mindmeld about choxorn. Whether that's right or not, I don't know, but Winston is constantly thinking of the same things I am, slightly before, or slightly after I do. This is not coincidence. If it was all after, it'd be less convincing, and it would be WH blatantly sheeping me as either alignment and I don't think he'd decide to be that submissive. Since he's taking the lead on things I am concluding at roughly the same time, just after he posted it, I think it's completely real that he's solving the game similarly to me. 797 rings true. 799 is a very townie process.

Page 11: 810 is good. Winston's language here expresses knowledge and confidence where scums tend to express less confidence unless it serves a specific purpose. 812 and for much of the page, Winston questions Zack for solving purposes and asks Monty to flesh out his reasons why he has issue with Zack more. This plus the earlier bits, and then a frustrated decision that Zack must be town, but the niggling doubts still creeping in thereafter indicate someone whose agenda is to find townies while still being honest about what suspicions he does find. He wants Zack to be a townie but something is off in his estimation, and couldn't pinpoint it. By 826 he says this. All of this looks very good no matter what Zack's alignment is. But 835 is the major tell. I absolutely believe that Winston Hughes is hunting and finding Logic from a clean notebook using his own detective's reasoning, and it has absolutely nothing to do with sheeping me. He's got his own reasons and views on why Logic is scum. This is an independent get and it doesn't matter the chronology. If I weren't in this game, Winston still would have caught Logic today. He deserves full credit, this is the same level of a bus as if I were the one doing it, and I think Winston also knows how effin' bad that is. He can bus but there's a time and a place and it wasn't early d1 before the poor guy could even establish himself. I think I got him at a time when he couldn't even post that much in his own defense, before the mid-point of d1. That's NOT a time to bus and Winston was attacking him that early. I absolutely believe 839 is a real tinfoil. 840 is really good snap reasoning. 845 is Winston giving credence to a Zack tinfoil that he doesn't even think he should be able to be having, because it would indicate Zack's scum game is enormously improved from previous heights, which WH respected already. This is a thought and a revelation that townies have, and scums don't really. Especially not acted this well. Whatever Zack's alignment, Winston's looks good just from interacting with Zack and sussing him. He struggles hard with Zack's alignment this game but is trying to solve him town based on townie-looking behavior. He's not trying to mislynch Zack, that motive isn't there. 877 Snap read of Fredwood town crossposting with Zack calling Fredwood scum looks like a real crosspost and further adds to the Winston/Zack dichotomy. They're not aligned together unless both are town, and WH looks very town. Also just that bit, I feel like it demonstrates that Winston is looking to build a town, as opposed to tearing one down.

Page 12: NAI

Page 13: No posts





.....

For starters, off the top of my head:
I've observed Zack being a somewhat relaxed version of his usual self, making me want to keep poking him until the cracks show.
I've observed pizza doing the kind of thing that tends to put him under suspicion on D1 as town, but with a certain knowingness about it that makes me question just how many layers he's working through.
I've observed Dp101 looking like his awkward townie self.
I've observed GH playing it cool, but giving hints of underlying reservation.

This feels like real solving and vigilance.

I'm wary of being affected by pizza's mystical bit, but reading Logic's ISO suggests an underlying sense of control that wasn't there in previous games.

This is significant because it is assisting with the suspicion on Logic, but from Winston's own work page. He didn't just copy what little I said and go yeah, he seems off. Instead he volunteers new reasoning and basis for the suspicion from his own detective work, which makes me believe he's actually independently solving the game.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.

I don't think Logic ever posts this to a partner. Also notable in this post is the top line is a response to Kagemusha questioning how he got Slaan town-read so early, which also makes Kagemusha townie in retrospect as I already mentioned. The underlined bit, ironically, demonstrates Logic's perfect information as he's accusing Winston of having perfect information. How often that's gonna be a scum/scum interaction I leave to the imagination of the reader, but in my book, there's bad and there's not bad, and this ain't bad for the Winstonian.

Just experience talking. As much as I want to keep pizza under pressure, I'm leery of actually lynching him because, historically, it's been a very bad move.

The follow up a couple posts later does not read like Winston is mutually distancing from Logic. In fact, it just reads like Winston is taking what he's saying at face value even though Logic is smearing him. I don't think it sinks in until later, which indicates that it's not acting when it does.

Vote: Logic

Reviewing my reactions, he seems the closest thing to an actual scumread.

Like his repeated return to Zack as a mild suspicion, he repeats his claim that Logic is actually suspect and repeats votes on him as well.

Never change.

Vote: Logic

As has been demonstrated.

choxy so conservative.

Where's the juice, choxy?

Before I switcheroo on choxorn, Winston says what was nagging me during one of my catch-ups. I had chox as town, then posts in between changed my mind, and Winston saw it first.

Three scenarios, ordered most-to-least likely by my estimation:

1) pizza is town and correct about Logic

2) pizza is town and wrong about Logic

3) pizza is scum

Above questions re. pizza are due diligence, in recognition that pizza is better at getting townread as scum than as town (esp. on D1).

looks good.

unvote

Don't want Logic hammered tonight.

Logic actually getting enough momentum to be near hammer danger at this point, and that discussion time is vital for town especially with people who have yet to really post much. Even a strong scum candidate is not worth hammering day one early, that's anti-town. So while this should be NAI, I fully fully back this decision.

My level of confidence in pizza's towniness and his read of Logic is a new sensation.

I want to prod at it before it's either confirmed or questioned by the flip.

This rings true. I don't look so townie so early so well and I don't think I make a super solid case on d1 very well either. But I also don't think WH is just saying this to hide in my town. That's basically what it has to be if he's scum, and the rest of his ISO doesn't match that theory. I think we are simply mindmelding. Scums have an agenda, and that agenda is rarely as simple as "say what pizza is thinking before he knows he's thinking it, and sheep him relentlessly". That's not ever really a playbook they choose or could stick to if they tried. They have to be able to move around, not tie their own hands.

@Montmorency

Would you really lynch Zack today?

I believe if I'm correct, this is Winston's mild discomfort with Zack re-appearing. At this point, and in the posts just after, he asks Monty to develop the Zack read more and flesh out his reasons, and he begins to question Zack in a solving Zack's alignment sense.

I feel you.

But I came to a Logic scumread for my own reason: control.

What I've seen of townie Logic, he exercises little conscious control and just posts what he thinks.

This Logic feels like he's thinking about it.

This is WH's independent get for Logic. The chronology doesn't matter, Winston nabbed Logic legitimately.

GH's big post looks townie in itself, but it feels a little scummy to me that he'd make that his main engagement with the thread at this stage.
Where's the chat, GH?

Complex thoughts and good vigilance. Looks townie but feels scummy is a real and complex thought that scums don't often use as a line of attack.

If Zack isn't town, he's nailed the impression.

I'm sold.

Still struggling with the apparent contradiction of having scummy vibes about Zack, while Zack's actual acting is amazing. Even this wording indicates that he's giving Zack his earned acting award, but is having trouble in his gut with fully believing in it. This is more like a decision to stick with the odds and being impressed by Zack than a wholehearted town read. This is the theme of his day one feelings toward Zack. Man it looks townie but I'm having trouble keeping Zack in my town, kind of thoughts. Keeps giving bad feelings but still looks amaze. Those are complex thoughts and shows Winston's struggle.

Zack is a bad vote.

Join me on GH.

Does not feel correct to try to talk Xiahou out of voting for Zack if the goal is to cause mislynches and Zack is town, especially after he would have been putting a lot of acting investment into struggling with Zack's alignment this round. This post demonstrates Winston's motive clearly: He was looking for townies and struggling to put Zack into his town despite the fact that it looks like he belongs there on some levels. But here he is, defending his hard-fought town lean on Zack, because he's trying to build a town, not destroy one.

Vote: Logic

That's about all that needs to be said.

That's a ton of work to establish him as town and he's obvious town and everyone has him town, so don't take him out of your town even if he messes up later. But the diligence has been done. His iso is clean, no scums lurking inside of it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes, the short version.

457
511
835

I'm wary of being affected by pizza's mystical bit, but reading Logic's ISO suggests an underlying sense of control that wasn't there in previous games.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.

Vote: Logic

Reviewing my reactions, he seems the closest thing to an actual scumread.

Never change.

Vote: Logic

unvote

Don't want Logic hammered tonight.

I feel you.

But I came to a Logic scumread for my own reason: control.

What I've seen of townie Logic, he exercises little conscious control and just posts what he thinks.

This Logic feels like he's thinking about it.

Vote: Logic

Logic spewed him town, he spewed himself town by going after Logic, he spewed himself town by having his own reasons in spite of my case that some folks couldn't grok or didn't agree with. I think he lynches Logic today even if I weren't around, or at least highly suspects him and votes him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes needs to be universally lock town. Moving on to next lock townie.

[Askthepizzaguy]

While looking at Kage, I'm ignore mode-ing a lot of people to make this easier. Logic I'm leaving off of ignore for the duration because spew, but I saw this and I need to make a comment while it's on my mind:

also

logic i think i've always assumed you've played chess because y'know

I haven't played chess since about the time that avatar was made. So, a decade or so? I've never considered myself very good. I'm capable of beating my parents and

i did think dp's been a bit weird and the reaction test was really... stiff and ???

Hmm. Why do you get a feeling that no one else seems to?

Logic's 10-minute take:
DP is town. DP is not teamed with Pizza, or Zack.

Csargo and Pizza are not teamed. One could be a wolf, but I don't think both.

Pizza feels really weird from normal. I can usually understand him a little, but here, he feels like he is playing 9 moves ahead to my 4. Not sure if he's on my team or not. I stand by my "seat of the pants" statement from earlier.

Cuth jumps in with some slight shade at DP. Is he suspicious of DP?

Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.

Reinoe is the current target of DP's ire, and he is voting for me, (full disclosure, that that vote isn't being counted because it isn't bolded)

His vote on me looks like it stems only from Pizza's accusation. Not sure if sheeping, or he has other reasons for voting for me.

Vote: Kagemusha

Aside from the looks-good mentions of reinoe and the obvious looks-good vote against Kagemusha and the scummy reasons behind it, look at the bolded orange bits about Cuth.

This is more of the Just Asking Questions passive aggression slime that he put on both Kage and Winston this game.

I would not at all be shocked if this is also spewing Cuthillius townie. That plus what little bit of research I already did on Cuth makes Cuthillius a likely candidate to enter my town when I do the full work on him.

Wanted to put this out here for everyone's attention though before I forget it. Cuth's wayyyy down my list so, I might not get to him before I ded.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Kagemusha, the tl;dr version.

Page 1: No posts
Page 2: No posts
Page 3: No posts
Page 4: No posts
Page 5: Opens with joke vote on Slaan. Later, does a roleplay post of an arrogant and crazy person, likely Bobby Fischer. The beard reference is likely due to Bobby not having a beard while active, and then having one much later. Logic's 397 indicates well for Kage.
Page 6: Kage responds to Logic's vote with an OMGUS. 415 even more strongly indicates town-Kage. That process is a legitimate way to get the ball rolling and one I believe Kage will default to often enough. 424 Logic spew is sharply good for Kage. Kage's own 425 snap back 3 minutes later is extremely good for Kage. After that, Logic doesn't have a good answer for a good long time. Over 2 hours later he comes back with this weaksauce.

(pizza snip)
Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.
(pizza snip)
[b]Vote: Kagemusha[b/]

Click for context, most of that post is irrelevant for Kage, but this is the important bits.

Another one who cant understand what true strategy is.Truly illogical! Unvote and Vote: Logic . Though i will get you for your slander Slaan, sooner rather then later!

Snap.

At least it got you to talk and Logic to vote. Is there something else we can do at the moment? Get people to talk and start drawing lines into thin air in order to find associations later? In the past Ive tried to play old style as town only observing at the start and got myself mis lynched enough times for lurking. So her i am talking. Lets talk.

A mish-mash of old school Kagemusha and modern Kagemusha, still out of date in the current meta but the old warhorse has valid methods that he believes in, he uses, this is his real process as mentioned before.

I only know the style of few people playing. This morning when i went to through the thread, mostly it is just nonsense. Csargo seems like Csargo. So does GH. Pizza seems to be claiming some sort of ultimate knowledge which is completely normal for him. Choxorn drops by and does the minimum and you and Manasi seem to have some sort of sweet talking going on, which i think i recall also from earlier games. DP seems like he is on the verge of meltdown when it comes to mafia, which i can relate to quite well. I could not get any reaction from Slaan with my vote, which is too early for me to analyze. Logic seemed to be eager to react to my sudden activity, but thats about it. What have you observed so far? It would be lot easier to read it through one post then from myriad of posts.

This is a lot of depth in Kage terms. All offered freely. For some other people I'd consider this thin, but for Kage this early, it's got depth and reveals bits of his process as well, see the bits on Slaan. I should call this NAI but it gives me good feels.

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.

The bolded makes Kage sharply townie. The phrasing is all wrong for Logic if Kage is a partner. It just looks like Logic randomly white knighting Slaan when he had no business doing so, so he could attack Kagemusha.

And where does the thought of Slaan not being a wolf stems from? Do you know him from other games/forums or what are you basing on that assumption?

Obliteration. Kage destroys Logic independently of me or Winston with one punch. This one question is the damning one.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.

The first bolded is why he had Slaan as town apparently, after Kage snapped back at him about where in the heck he could think he's town. This is not indicative of a real process as I said at the time, and now we know is true, and the second bolded is him trying to deflect. Looking at the chronology, Logic's mistakes largely take place because Kage prompted them, after he voted for Kage. That sequence of events is never Logic voted a partner, partner fired back with an instantly crippling question, followed by other huge mistakes from Logic that I was able to see and what ultimately got him lynched because several folks saw them as mistakes. This sequence happens when Kage is town only.

Gonna stop here, Kage is never dying this game except by murder. This is all you need, this is sufficient.

Universal town read on Kage from everyone, even if he makes mistakes from here on out, please. This is a read that should not fade with time or based on Kage pushing a townie. It's a perma read.

[Askthepizzaguy]

NETA, confusing unfinished thought because of missing link:

"Over 2 hours later he comes back with this weaksauce."

Should have included a link to the bottom quote in the above post. That was the finishing blow to Kage ever being scum here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Still 9 hours left on the clock. Got a very early dinner and I'm fueled up to continue.

Let's take a look at why Slaan is a townie now. That's the part a couple were taking issue with, so it's important I flesh it out right.

See if you agree or tell me why you disagree.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan

Page 1: Many posts NAI because it's all fluffy. And to be expected in the first 80 posts.
Page 2: Still nothing happening here except a GH welcome vote.
Page 3: No posts
Page 4: No posts
Page 5: Kage joke votes Slaan, putting him at 2. Again we have to look at 397, where Logic leaps to Slaan's 'defense', more of an attack on Kage though. That's all that happens this page. See bottom quotes.
Page 6: 424 looks good for Slaan. 450 is a good process post by Slaan. Quoted below. 465 is true. 473 leans list is not very impressive, but I look at this is more of a struggle to read people townie on a new forum, and him naturally being a little stingy giving out town leans. And even in his smallish leans list summary at the bottom, I think his top 2 townies are townies and think he's got a couple scumbags in his bottom 5.
Page 7: NAI
Page 8: NAI
Page 9: Post 685 is making Logic into a super serious candidate for the lynch. Might not have been able to do it without this vote. Is it a bus? Don't think so.
Page 10: 784 snap read was a mindmeld with me.
Page 11: 867 is important to reading Slaan. I think it indicates very well here.
Page 12: 891 response to Fred "feeling sorry for" Logic and reading him town for it also indicates that he's building a town. I agree with the read, and he and Winston both thinking Fredwood is town for this as opposed to people attacking Fredwood for it, seems to mesh with a town mindset. It matches my views, so this is another mindmeld read. 940 is really sharp and non-consensus, and it's looking more plausible at this point. 951 is a sharp and relevant question no one else was asking.
Page 13: 983 looks good. 1025 on the other hand seems to indicate that his philosophy would be to bus Logic here for being a weak partner, because there's no cops, forgetting how never getting murdered becomes an issue by late game. So, I'm keeping in mind that by Slaan's own admission, he'd probably bus Logic hard. Is that proof of scum or even scummy? I don't think so presently. I look to the rest of his game, and it looks pretty good to me.




....



Selected quotes and why they lean town to me:

Logic's 10-minute take:
DP is town. DP is not teamed with Pizza, or Zack.

Csargo and Pizza are not teamed. One could be a wolf, but I don't think both.

Pizza feels really weird from normal. I can usually understand him a little, but here, he feels like he is playing 9 moves ahead to my 4. Not sure if he's on my team or not. I stand by my "seat of the pants" statement from earlier.

Cuth jumps in with some slight shade at DP. Is he suspicious of DP?

Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.

Reinoe is the current target of DP's ire, and he is voting for me, (full disclosure, that that vote isn't being counted because it isn't bolded)

His vote on me looks like it stems only from Pizza's accusation. Not sure if sheeping, or he has other reasons for voting for me.

[b]Vote: Kagemusha[b/]

So if he's white knighting, if you think Slaan is scum you think Logic is defending teammate Slaan. I don't know, defense is not really Logic's bag as any alignment. He's mostly offense-minded. I think the premise behind this move is to get votes on Kage, not to specifically defend Slaan. If anything, hoping he can get Slaan to also vote for Kage could be a motive. I don't see Logic protecting Slaan as a motive since Slaan wasn't under any serious pressure. The key to this whole thought process is that he likely has one motive, and that motive is to lynch a townie. It's not playing defense. Slaan's just being used as a cudgel to beat Kage, the motive isn't really to get suspicion/joke votes off of Slaan. I did look at this but it's almost never this.

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.

Again the analysis here is if Slaan is being defended. I don't see that, especially after Kage's vote was in character roleplaying and obviously not that serious, just a poke. Logic is just trying to create drama out of nothing. When pressed on why Slaan is a townie, he doesn't have a well thought out answer. If it were my partner, I'd have a totally defensible reason why they're townie ready to go when asked. Defending a partner has to be convincing and look good. If it's not convincing, doesn't look good, and the reasons are beyond generic, then Logic was simply white knighting some townie he wasn't thinking about in any depth, to attack Kage. Did not have a good plan of action to respond to questions about his process on Slaan. Feels like that strongly indicates Slaan is town, but I admit it's just theory. Let's keep looking.

I'm currently at this part and I think both are town. Dp101 just seems overall towny in tone and reaction and is trying to figure things out (I really liked post #310 of his) and reinoe seems unreasonable aggressive and obstinate which I hardly see from scum that mostly just want to blend in.

Specifics (post 310 referred to) and the process on reinoe is very townie; usually a person who is undiplomatic is someone wolves turn their backs on, even if they don't accuse. They like it when someone who is town is isolated from other townies, and they get sympathy points just for agreeing that being obstinate is "bad for town". The more they can discredit and divide, the better. This post shows me that Slaan is looking for townie alignment, wherever he can find it and explain it.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Generic, as I said at the time. I also didn't see how anyone could read alignment based off of this reasoning, whereas I feel like if Slaan were a wolf, Logic would have found some better basis to call him town. Level 1 is to not even call your partner town, and you're afraid to do that, and after that, you look for justifications because it's still scary to call your partner town. I feel like Logic is going to find stronger reasons why Slaan is town than this to defend him if Slaan is his buddy. It's also just not his thing in general, which is why it came off so awkward. This just isn't in his playbook, and when you run the wildcat and you never run the wildcat, someone drops the football.

So I ISO'd Logic once more to reconsider my case on him... I noticed how pizza basically immediatly went after him and tunneled him ever since, starting Post 169 where he calls his opener sloppy althought he just posted about games during rvs which I don't think is AI since we the topic when he came into the thread were video games.

But then there is his townread on me which is just weird as fuck... I mean I was just shitposting around and I can do that regardless of alignment (check the Orchestrated Chaos game where I also just randomly posted at SoD1)... I mean who can't just post small talk as either alignment. He then gives the reason that he thought I just tipped my foot in the water of new peeps here but how is that ever AI from anyone? There went 0 thought into his townread on me and there is no reason for a towny to do so.

So yea, I'm fine with a Logic lynch today.. in fact let me help

Vote: Logic

Also I'm gonna put Monty back in my null pile after his last couple of posts, they seemed pretty good

Could this be a bus? I doubt it.

Is it the entire game? Isnt it rather just one very loud voice that 2 others (Kage + dp) sheeped and now more recently I added myself to that list... am I missing someone? I don't see this being unlikely tbh

Zack complaining that the entire game (3 people) wants Logic dead, Slaan responds with this. Pretty good imo.

Well RIP me, this game has devolved (or from your standpoints maybe evolved :D) into meta read fun where I can hardly contribute... I mean I could read up on past games here but ngl my WIM isnt that large...

In the end I'd be down for those lynches today:
- Logic: Don't even care much for pizza's tirade against him (he just made me look at Logic again)... I find his townread towards me and subsequent defending scummy. He townread me after the shitposting early D1 without me having contributed anything... and after being questioned about it doubled down on it because I seemed like a new guy trying to fit in a new group... which is an ok read but why is this AI in the slightest from me? Seems to me like he just put together a quick readlist without having a solving mindset.
- Barto: From everything I've read it's not a slot I'd miss and I doubt I'd ever get a read on it and just sheeping the meta reads of you guys doesnt sound like fun.
- Manasi: Feels way different from the mashes we've played, less chatty and less active and overall just weird for the little bit of Manasi I know
- Choxorn: Few rather isolated pop ins with a rather scummy post townreading pizza
- Xiahou: Didnt do anything so far really, 1 post iirc

Preferred is still the Logic lynch though, in addition to imo >rand flipping scum there has been alot said about him that can help us going forward. And of those 5 I'd lynch Xiahou last obv, hope s/he can find into the game and post more :).

The bolded parts are really important because they reveal process. Slaan has his own kinda unique reasons why Logic is scum, which is important, even brings up the readlist without it being a major focus of anyone else's case. He doesn't have the confidence level of me, Winston, and Kage (wrt Logic flipping scum) which is fine. Why would he? He really only sees the one or two things as kinda scummy, doesn't have the same perspective.

I think thats towny from Fred. Same thing happened in the wild west game that he started to feel sorry for the guy under immense pressure and fred was town there. Not that its not fakeable etc etc but it's in line with his prev town play so thats :top:

Mindmeld.

If Logic flips wolf I'm going to start looking realy hard at GH btw... in the wild west game he also tried to save a mafia buddy by going after Fredwood.

That being said I don't mind his attitude rn, doesnt hurt to look further than the 'easy' lynches so that's fine

This is sharp and might even be correct.

That's a long post about why you'd never be scum in this situation... I didnt even bother to read all of it because self-meta analysis is often bad to begin with ;).

I'd agree that you and Logic are never w/w. Imo such a play would require you two to have agreed to in in wolfchat and then I'd expect Logic to still be around... only exception here would be that Logic knows he won't have time to play this game after all and says 'bus me hard' or smth... duno, ppl that know Logic (outside of pizza obviously) would that be a possibility? That's high level tinfoil territory though so maybe only something to consider going into lylo or w/e, just figured I'd share on this front.

You being w and Logic town? Sure why not, 'as wolf I'd never push a mislynch so hard' is not an unheard of defence... even townies often come to that conclusion - it's a valid strategy.

Doesnt mean that I think you are scum, just that I'm not one to buy such defences :)

This process all looks valid.

Hm, I'm torn tbh. Logic could've had real rl issues and if he can start being more active starting next day that would be good... Chox on the other hand seems to have displayed his commitment to this game and it doesnt look like it'll get better.... Then again my read on Logic is a bit stronger and his lynch would give us max infos after he was talked about so much so I'll stay on Logic me thinks

Slaan seriously hard bussing Logic if he's scum with him. He has every opportunity to make a difference and begin to move off the wagon for legitimate looking reasons and he does not. If Slaan is alive in final three it's a problem, but until then I don't think so.

So this is the bottom line on Slaan- it's a lot of individual things that look good, and the dead wolf spew looks good. A few mindmelds and so forth.

Maybe he's not lock, but his ELO rating would be pretty high if all of this is fake. The process is good, the vote is good, I particularly like the process on Fredwood and reinoe in particular, it shows town-building instead of town destroying as his main motivation. I like his independent and different reasons why Logic is scummy as opposed to just "looks good Pizza I'll help". It looks more like he's arriving at the conclusion from his own blank detective's notebook and with a different degree of confidence, and is less swayed by the opinions of the moment, he's just following what is scummy.

There are some strong style differences that make me a little uneasy. But I think Slaan isn't going to be a problem unless he's still hanging around 4 days from now. But I'm adding up the process looks good, the reads are sharp, the observations are very mindmeld-y, and he's one of the people who are most responsible for a day 1 scummo death. Is he lock clear forever? No, but I think he's going to be. That's my prediction.

If he's scum what are you seeing that gets you to conclude that? Show me.

If you won't lock him town forever then I still think he gets a few days pass. I think that's quite fair and deserved, and in that time maybe he can get a perma lock, or die due to mafia.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Slaan is scum, this is his whole strategy: Being supertownie.

Killing the weakest scums, defending townies, and hoping to be the deep wolf at endgame.

I'm only recognizing this is possible. I am not saying it's plausible. It is the only way he's scum here, and I put low odds on it. So legit just keep this in mind if he's hanging around at LYLO. Consider him carefully but votes don't go here for a long while.

[Slaan]

I love being read :)

I'm not sure though if I can ever get a secure town lock if me being 'Supertownie' already isnt enough ^^. But overall it's a correct read, playing as townie as possible is my overall mafia strategy including bussing when it makes sense... in the Orchestrated Chaos Game I even put all 3 of my partners in my scumpile at the start of D4 ready to kill them all so I could solo the game... funny enough the last thing jp (one of the F3 that voted SmartBomb over scum!me) said to me after the game was over was 'I just thought you were super town, oh well............' so the supertownie reference is definetly on point :p

That being said I'm not mafia this game (and probably wouldnt share this if I was... or maybe I would? )... lynch me lylo if you want because currently I feel like we would have majorly screwed up somewhere if we even let it get that far.

Don't have much time to do much reading/solving myself today but we have a 72h day coming up so w/e :)

[Askthepizzaguy]

Dp101 the lickity lock townie.

Page 1: No posts
Page 2: NAI
Page 3: I really like 206. It reads like dp101 doesn't have an agenda and is just normally struggling to get what I'm saying, as it was layered in Finegold-isms and roleplaying, and not a lot of direct explanation that is easy to understand. I didn't like other folks' reactions to me, dp's was good.
Page 4: I think dp would be impressed by that (241). I like his process in 271. He's been asking people "quick" questions for a while, hoping to trip someone up. 304 dp and I start to have consistently backwards appraisals of people's alignment. Call it a reverse mindmeld. Expected even, from dp. 310 he follows up well. This just looks like dp thoughts. Maybe he's correct and I'm wrong here, who knows. 317 and 318 all look great for dp being himself. Basically his entire interaction with me, from start of game until now, has been amazing from my perspective.
Page 5: 338 and 339, nuff said. 341 has got just a little bit of annoyed / dissatisfied sass from dp101, because Csargo is coasting a bit, and this reaction to his fireworks post also feels like the exact right thing to say there. 343 continues with reinoe. 354 comes to different conclusions about me than Csargo when he could easily push me.
Page 6: I like 405, dp being sassy. 434 a very dp101 process on Winston. I agree with the read so I'm not complaining. I can follow him.
Page 7: NAI
Page 8: 573 and 585 are very solid for dp's town alignment. You can feel the bloody disappointment dripping from the heart on dp's sleeve in post 616. I believe this is strongly indicative of someone who can't just murder another player to excuse himself from having to play with him for very long. There's a certain helplessness that you can't fake when you're stuck in a game with someone who provokes you, and you want to play well and coordinate well with your team, and they might be a game-long obstacle to that and interfere with your enjoyment of it.
Page 9: 667 great process, logical and measured. After I just said this can be scum or town pr causing tension he immediately asks why not town pr. 716 sticking up for his town reads.
Page 10: 739 and 742 and 746 in-depth, layered thoughts below the surface on Csargo, in response to Cuth asking for a spicy read. I may/may not agree on Csargo but this process looks real. 760 by now dp101 is seriously clearing himself. This is not just meta, it's just not something dp would do in my estimation. Conflicts with his personality. He's unlikely to shift it for the sake of a game.
Page 11: No posts.
Page 12: 934 excellent post.
Page 13: 993 is pure from dp, defending his town reads.
Page 14: 1049 do you think this is dp really arguing against a cfd that would change the outcome of the round to not lynching scum logic while also being scum? Even if it landed on a somehow scum Monty, it would be confusing enough to be worth it. Logic would look good, the cfd'ers would look good, the people pushing logic would look bad. This is not dp-scum behavior here.

The refusal to derail onto Monty and off of Logic and the subsequent tag teaming by Zack and GH onto their formerly lock town friend dp101 looks absolutely great for dp101 and it looks like butt for Zack/GH.

But the main point is, we're not lynching dp101 ever.



Selected quotes:

INCORRECT!

So far I've done among the most work out of anyone. Plus, the moves are good. It's better to make good moves than a bunch of bad ones like Monty.

Doing work and wrapping it in so many jokes and references that it's impossible to read is very hard to distinguish from pretending to do work. I'll try to read your logic post again to see if it makes sense, but I know for sure that I didn't get it my first time through.

Dp trying to be helpful and to understand and to communicate. I feel like this is his default zone, his natural happy place.

So it's lazy for me to expect that other people should post in a manner that is easily understood without having to google things? More specifically, I have literally no chess knowledge, and so I wouldn't even know what part of the post quoted in 167 to put into google. I'm already tired of talking about how I tried joking about something and thought about reading someone off of it, but retracted it, so I'm not even going to address that point. I would love to know what you think I need to do to make a read worthwhile, because while you call post 247 a no effort read, you are missing 2 things: Firstly, me reading him town there was not just from that one post, but from his consistently natural behaviour congruent with standard town Zack gameplay, and secondly, I was joking in how confident I was because of his comment about him being annoyed with people strongly townreading him for no reason.

I love hearing someone call me lazy when I've posted 3-4 times as much as them. You claim that I'm posting just to post, but it's D1, that's my standard thing until someone actually makes a post that I feel I can make a case on them off of, and that hasn't happened yet. Thus, small jokes and reads. Quite frankly, the way you phrased this post makes it seem like you are trying to provoke me/insult me, and I think I should probably take a break so that I don't lash out more.

Dp101 is not someone I feel appeals to emotion or sympathy as scum. This is just him responding to something that seemed insulting/provocative and undiplomatic from his perspective, from reinoe. And it all washes as a real reaction. Layers of thoughts also revealed in this post.

Ok apparently I'm not stepping away to cool down, because this is the most hypocritical post in the thread. You literally call me lazy, and then in the very next post, decline to do some very simple work asked in a friendly matter by someone who is most likely not scum at this point. Vote: reinoe because not only is your behaviour not helping town whatsoever, but you also seem determined to tilt people to put them off their game.

I am seriously going to take a break after this because this game is just making me angry right now, and I really really don't want to get tilted.

Yes. I've done this in games when I feel like someone might be damaging to it, or to the team, especially if it could even be scummy. This is a natural reaction.

Posting that I am not understanding something is useful to town, because the point of posting is to communicate ideas, and if I'm not understanding someone's posts when they appear not to be jokes, it is very important that I say something so that everyone can cooperate and read each other with minimal confusion.

At no point did I say "please clear me, I posted a lot". When someone comes in and does one post of analysis that reads like it's a personal attack on me, centred around me apparently doing nothing, then refuses to answer a simple question, that's what ticks me off, not me not getting townread by you simply by posting a bunch. I don't care if you scumread me, I just want you to be consistent, and when you criticise me for something and then immediately exemplify it, can you understand why I'd get a little ticked off?

Dp101 has that mediator's brain. He's looking for mutual understanding first, and playing the game later. I feel like this reveals a bit of dp's core personality and none of this is fake.

Can we lynch pizza for all the chess references?

Very tempting, but there’s a tell he hasn’t dropped yet.

I think dp believes in this kind of thing. He thinks I'll push him if I'm scum, and if I don't, I might be town. It's not that simple but I believe he believes it.

It should be illegal for Pizza to be having this much fun, this is obscene.

I don't know why, but I feel like this post is even more proof that dp101 is a townie. He's sympathetic, instead of looking for reasons why he can get a mislynch, he really seems to be putting his feet into the shoes of others and seeing if it makes sense. By now, the annoyance and confusion with the roleplaying has given way to just being in awe of how much I'm having fun. That's legitimately not a scummy mindset, I'm sorry, this is evidence of that.

I wonder if Pizza will post less if I give in and sheep him Vote: Logic

This is a sheep but my god it's a sheep for the towniest of reasons.

I understand the overall sentiment of this post, but I take issue with this portion of it. You know very well that I am not lissa, or "a few others", and personally, after playing with me for as many games as you have, I would think that you'ld know that I don't often do the expected thing. In particular, I really try and avoid getting heated as a wolf, because I feel it strays too close to the kind of emotional manipulation that makes me feel guilty, as opposed to the more fun gleefully lying about what I feel and why I feel it. Your first post is slightly accurate in that I can certainly imagine myself screwing around a little like that as a wolf, but overall I think I'd only do that at MU. After how fast I was caught as scum the one time I randed it on this website, I'm pretty sure that if it happened again, I'd be really frozen and clunky in my posting out of fear of that same kind of rapid collapse.

Ring of truth. This self-meta is real.

I've read everything, but I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to participate much tonight. I'm wiped out after a whole bunch of studying and probably should get more sleep than normal rather than play mafia late into the night. What I will say is that Zack is becoming even more lock town to me, I really feel the push on him is criticising him playing the game effectively rather than him doing anything scummy. I also think that the Fredwood mini-push based on the "unfortunately" phrasing is really stupid, and probably a poor look for everyone involved. Such a minor phrasing thing is just a really poor thing to base a read off of. Also, I think I'm mostly off of the Logic wagon, the GH analysis feels like it pushes him more towards town than anything else. Zack's Barto case looks decent, and I think that it is probably one of the stronger options at this point in time. The swap to chox is hot garbage IMO, the strategy of lynch the lowposter is rarely a good one. I get that the posts themselves have been a tad sheepy, but not sure that it's enough to make him the lynch.

Dp101 very direct and gaining confidence. He's telling truths no matter who doesn't like them. Truths as he sees them at least. He's already done quite enough to be town read and to paricipate in the game, and he's showing a lot of WIM coming back to the game.

Zack I'm kicking you out of my town until further notice. I think Monty is right about you.

Well I think this is the towniest he’s ever been in any game I’ve played with him. I haven’t gone through and checked in what ways it is different, but just because someone’s different doesn’t make them scum.

This is basically where dp101 should be. Zack's game to this point should be getting this reaction from dp I believe. This is him consistently challenging people who push on his town reads.

Disagree. I think Zack is realizing I'm getting that wolf flip despite the fact that he argued against it and is now looking for more scapegoats to push tomorrow.

I feel that this statement comes from a tunneled perspective. You see it as coming from a wolf because you are already so certain of your push.

Organic.

Look, if it’s me and him in F3, I’ll vote him, because he should not be alive at that stage, but before then, I don’t think it’s a good option.

Sterling process. He's agreeing that there are universes where Zack being alive would be legitimately disconcerting, but he's not ready to hang him yet. Just as you should. I'd be worried if I could sway you that easily on rock solid town reads.

Zack please do not do this. Monty really hasn't done much AI at this point, other than be wrong, and we haven't even confirmed if he is wrong yet, I just think he is.

This is never a wolf.

We're done here. You never lynch dp101 this game. And the Zack/GH pushes onto him were hot garbage. I don't care if it doesn't make sense as a scum strategy, it doesn't make sense for town even less. Both of these guys had him as lock town and then they're going to cfd him with no discussion or warning simply because he won't derail the Logic wagon and kill Monty? That is crappy.

This is a lock that you never unlock. Not gonna happen or we'll have words in DVC about why you thought this was ever a good idea.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I love being read :)

I'm not sure though if I can ever get a secure town lock if me being 'Supertownie' already isnt enough ^^. But overall it's a correct read, playing as townie as possible is my overall mafia strategy including bussing when it makes sense... in the Orchestrated Chaos Game I even put all 3 of my partners in my scumpile at the start of D4 ready to kill them all so I could solo the game... funny enough the last thing jp (one of the F3 that voted SmartBomb over scum!me) said to me after the game was over was 'I just thought you were super town, oh well............' so the supertownie reference is definetly on point :p

That being said I'm not mafia this game (and probably wouldnt share this if I was... or maybe I would? )... lynch me lylo if you want because currently I feel like we would have majorly screwed up somewhere if we even let it get that far.

Don't have much time to do much reading/solving myself today but we have a 72h day coming up so w/e :)

This is what I'm looking for as a response. Not nervous, and the "lynch me at lylo" is perfection.

You got nothing to hide. 98 percent confident. You are lock until Lylo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, guys and gals, are we on the same page with these locks?

Winston 100 percent lock town
Kagemusha 100 percent lock town
dp101 100 percent lock town
Slaan 98 percent, Lylo only, never before.

If you ever think of pushing any of these people in any future round, consult these linked posts and explain how they're scum. You're pushing in the wrong direction I tells ya. I'll be spinning in my grave. I'll haunt you in DVC. I swear to all that is cheesy.

[Montmorency]

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685, so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 - Reinoe (switched onto Zack soon after, had some other votes as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513, then back to Logic #796)
#511 - Winston (Changes to Barto #521, changes back to Logic #539 after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 - Slaan
#777 - Choxorn

#919 - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

My bad, I missed this vote and change back to Logic.

Manual failure.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Fredwood the likely townie.


Page 1: Nada
Page 2: Nada
Page 3: Nada
Page 4: Nada
Page 5: 387 is a really solid opening post. Quote it for you below. I don't know how alignment indicative it is, but it looks great.
Page 6: 464 is truly amazing in retrospect. 480 is a funny snap back to GH's weak smudge and feels like it has town gravitas.
Page 7: NAI I think.
Page 8: Nada
Page 9: 676 strong town read on Slaan, which I feel like is non-consensus. 680 nuanced positions. 709 feels true.
Page 10: 721 depth of read on Slaan.
Page 11: Very interesting reaction to Fredwood saying unfortunately Logic looks like the logical lynch. Just looks like opportunism.
Page 12: Fred's response to GH is solid here. After a fairly contrived negative paraphrasing of what Fred was saying by GH, Fred's responses are all solid to me.
Page 13: Nada
Page 14: Nada
Page 15: Check out 1162 for me, please.


Selected quotes:

Sup Jerks. So I read all this thread...lol@me I even viewed 7 minutes of the two minute videos posted.

(pizza snip)

Vote: Reinoe

Click for full post. I feel this is a strong opening post. Think he could do it as both alignments.

You're right. My town reads are not as important to me as my scumreads. And yes, I'm deliberately not answering Zack's question about said townreads. Although I disagree with what you're saying. DP seems genuinely frustrated in a "caught for the wrong reasons" kind of way and I'm sincere about getting tired of him constantly talking about being confused.

Although I didn't call logic sum for not talking to Zack. I didn't give a reason for why logic is scum (it's for 215 which seems so out of place). I said they're talking to each other. My reasons for thinking logic is suspicious is entirely separate.

I don't care about your suss on Logic aside from the fact that you're not pushing him. My issue is you pushing Zack over logic because "Zack" didn't talk to logic. You're saying logic is scum, therefore Zack is scum because he's avoiding logic. Well get logic lynched first then go after Zack.

This one is way more alignment indicative. This is a solid process-based complaint with reinoe, who he's also suspecting. Since Logic flipped scum, telling him to push Logic is a good look for Freddy.

Oh good, the iso only works for one day phase.

Well, at least we know he tried to iso csargo in XCOM. Thing is, I also iso to gather data on someone I suspect, and I can do that as a wolf too, so it's not proof. I just think it looks townie of Fredwood to a mild degree.

As a recipient of Barto's unique version of the welcoming committee and me getting a bug in my bonnet about it, he does feel different. I feel a demonstrable difference between Bart in Xcom as opposed to Logic in XCom. Unfortunately most of Logic's play has been off the back foot so even if I did sense a change in playstyle.

I agree with Monty in the sense that Logic feels like the "correct" lynch today, but illogical me would like to vote Bart here.

Anyway fatigue etc etc etc neither have been here defending themselves etc etc etc.

Basically yeah, I'm willing to vote either here, but I think I'm leaning Logic (unfortunately)

Logic lynch, he looked a bit scummy, he feels bad about the overwhelming push against him, and what looks like an inability to fight back. Logic is very sympathetic. I don't think this conclusion is scummy. I often feel bad about who I'm pushing but I still gotta do it.

Depends on the strength of the read and the reliability of the pursuer. I've been in a lot of games where consensus was right, i've been in a lot of games where it wasn't. So I don't really see how that's a relevant question, it's not common or rare enough to really discount the voracity of Pizza's read because of it.

I haven't seen this much of a consensus of a lynch Day 1 though, this is what was bothering me earlier. To the point where you defended him, I guess Zack had a soft defense that didn't leave an impression everyone was cool with his lynch.

I don't see a world, even if Logic does survive (I'll set aside that if he does survive it won't be because he did a good job tapdancing), that this won't be a thing for the rest of the game. His pressure has been oppressive to an absurd degree and the only way I won't vote him today would be because I empathize with him; this would blow as either alignment.

Because I feel hella sorry for him.

These posts look good for Fredwood.

I mean, the interpretation/paraphrase that makes most sense to me is the following:

There are two wagons right now, Logic and Barto. I'm scumreading Barto more than Logic but am fine with either lynch. Unfortunately I'm still going to vote Logic despite my greater scumread of Logic.

It just... doesn't make sense from town? It's almost like he's trying to appease Pizza.

What? That seems a bit of a manipulation.

I agree.

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.

My only complaint here is that he's not hitting back hard enough. Strange is an understatement. But I don't sense a problem with Fred's initial reaction or his questioning of GH's motives here, and his methods. It looks scummy, and he does rip GH's bad argument to shreds. Fred looks strikingly town here. Notable how GH backs off after this instead of pursuing it harder. But I'm finding townies so.

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

This one was important to include. After the flip, and GH's EOD shenanigans and GH's strange pushes on Fredwood, if Fredwood is scum and GH is not, Freddo has all the momentum and support in the world by now to capitalize against GH.

He's not doing it in my opinion because he can't make heads or tails of why GH would be this bad as scum. It seems beneath him.

That's a townie mindset, a lot.

Lol not really, I'm having a hard enough time self-arguing WiFoM why scum GH makes that play there let alone with Zack Xposting with GH. Couple that with the the xpost on the push on me, if they are teammates, they have shit timing.

This is the deal. How in the world could either Zack or GH be this terrible at being a scumbag? For the sake of Logic? He's got value as a partner but there's something really screwy here with what could possibly be causing this amazing collapse. It doesn't match elite scum behavior. But it sure doesn't look like towning either. Fredwood struggling with this because townies have to struggle with this.

We don't know what the strategically correct decision is. If they're just having a bad game, and are town, then lynching them is bad. Townies don't know. Mafia would know to push the crap out of GH or Zack here, if either are town. Especially if you got pushed around scummily by one of them.

Fred has a strong town mindset. His process is good, and his picking at the process of others is also good and doesn't feel manipulative. He's also got a great attitude, and watching him swat away GH's bad attack was a thing of beauty regardless of GH's alignment.


Conclusion: Fred is a strong townie read, and while he's not a lock, there's no way you should be touching him on day two or day three.

@reinoe,

I'm asking you directly to let him go for a while. You do what you want if you think this is wrong, but I don't think this is wrong. Freddo has the blue suit. This isn't the candle favor, I got a different one for you. Just consider this one additionally at your discretion.

[reinoe]

I wish there were more people talking during this night phase. Maybe because it's a weekend?

[Kagemusha]

Ok. What we know?

We know Logic flipped scum. Also we learned that there were 4 scum in the game.Now 3 left. First round the scum had 25% of the lynch votes. Would they have used those during day 1 when usually cases are very light? My opinion yes.

If we look at the Choxorn counter wagon against Logic at its peak:

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (5): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

El Barto (1): Csargo

Choxorn (6): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


If we accept that mafia had its hand in the counter wagon. These are the people who were voting Choxorn at that point:

Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic



Logic we know was scum. Monty started the wagon thus would have taken a rather large risk at initiating it, when for scum easier would be to find a good candidate and hop along. Winston flipped back to Logic with convincing argument. So we are left with:

Zack,GH,Reinoe


I think it is safe to assume that this is not the full mafia team, as it would have been awful play to set all their eggs in one basket. Its possible, but not likely.

From this fellowship. It was GH who hopped in the wagon with basically zero reasoning. So based on that seeing what GH flips will give us maximum amount of information as for example at the start he had a weak case against Cuth, which he never really drove home and flipped easily away from it to Choxorn. It was also Cuth who chatted with Logic before the game really started, basic stuff for scum. So flipping GH next can give us maximum amount of information in case he flips scum. If GH flips scum. Cuth is obvious continuity and if our luck keeps running the mafia team has been almost wiped out at that point.

Town has now great momentum and based on the silence of the thread the scum team are not happy campers at the moment. I know some might suggest that we should flip Zack or Reinoe before GH, but with KISS principle. The more simple solution to the problem we can find more likely it is the correct one.

Last point if i die tonight. I think something that should be looked at more carefully would be the Bussing of DP101 and not take anything by face value. Was that bussing dangerous to anyone and what did it achieve?

[Kagemusha]

Im sorry if im not coherent enough. I drove 7 hours in a rain and half of it in the darkness, so im bit tired. I am happy to answer any questions about anything for couple hours.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Fair chance I don't make it so, just letting you guys know that I saw enough from reinoe and Monty throughout the round, Monty especially, to put a don't lynch tag on both. I'm getting worn out though. I'll have to pick this up if I survive the night phase. Feel free to pick up the baton and start finding townies to add to town that can't be scums.

This is the favor I want from you btw reinoe: Xiahou is probably town. He's not able to establish it based on his minimal day one posting so he's vulnerable. I think he ends up being spewed townie upon some people flipping wolf, and I also think that he's sharp and is going to make an impact on this town in a positive way.

He could get silly-lynched before he can establish his townie-ness. Smack people if they do this.

I feel like Xiahou and El Barto and Cuth are low hanging fruit at this point, and it's pretty likely all three are town in my estimation. If one is scum, then it's one, not three. This group isn't clear and Cuth looks the most town out of them but I get the feeling their weak day ones in the generic sense will get them into trouble. But generics are not specifics and that's too easy. It's gotta be good reasoning, but I think EB and Cuth will have to defend themselves. I want someone making sure Xiahou doesn't get sniped if he's less active and unable to post much.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I lack sleep and as fun as it is to hunt, I'm burned out so it's less fun going forward.

Sorry I can't stick around to talk. GLGL reading my walls. If I die, that means I am on vacation after a job well done (I hope) so I'll still be happy.

Wish me luck tonight.

[Kagemusha]

I lack sleep and as fun as it is to hunt, I'm burned out so it's less fun going forward.

Sorry I can't stick around to talk. GLGL reading my walls. If I die, that means I am on vacation after a job well done (I hope) so I'll still be happy.

Wish me luck tonight.

Thanks for the great job with your analyze Pizza!

[Slaan]

Wish that you die so you can get some rest or wish that you survive? :D

I'll head to bed as well, so in case me gets ripped let me give you my current list:

dp101, pizza, Winston, Kage
Fred
Monty, Csargo, Barto, Reinoe, Zack, Cuth, Xiahou
GH, Manasi
Chox

The big middle pack I'll need to sort out and have no strong feelings about one way or the other. I'm totally fine with pizzas points on Winston and kage/dp were looking good regardless (I got a bit sus of dp after his CFD comment but after Logic flipped mafia that looks very good for him).

The scummy points towards GH and Chox havent changed, I'm looking forward to hear from GH today. Manasi is just not playing like I'm used to, she is normally very chatty and active and here it's just ... well not much which pings me scummy.

Alright, gn8 all :)

[Slaan]

Thanks for the great job with your analyze Pizza!

Oh yea, he makes a great workhorse.

[Montmorency]

Ok. What we know?

We know Logic flipped scum. Also we learned that there were 4 scum in the game.Now 3 left. First round the scum had 25% of the lynch votes. Would they have used those during day 1 when usually cases are very light? My opinion yes.

If we look at the Choxorn counter wagon against Logic at its peak:

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (5): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

El Barto (1): Csargo

Choxorn (6): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


If we accept that mafia had its hand in the counter wagon. These are the people who were voting Choxorn at that point:

Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic



Logic we know was scum. Monty started the wagon thus would have taken a rather large risk at initiating it, when for scum easier would be to find a good candidate and hop along. Winston flipped back to Logic with convincing argument. So we are left with:

Zack,GH,Reinoe


I think it is safe to assume that this is not the full mafia team, as it would have been awful play to set all their eggs in one basket. Its possible, but not likely.

From this fellowship. It was GH who hopped in the wagon with basically zero reasoning. So based on that seeing what GH flips will give us maximum amount of information as for example at the start he had a weak case against Cuth, which he never really drove home and flipped easily away from it to Choxorn. It was also Cuth who chatted with Logic before the game really started, basic stuff for scum. So flipping GH next can give us maximum amount of information in case he flips scum. If GH flips scum. Cuth is obvious continuity and if our luck keeps running the mafia team has been almost wiped out at that point.

Town has now great momentum and based on the silence of the thread the scum team are not happy campers at the moment. I know some might suggest that we should flip Zack or Reinoe before GH, but with KISS principle. The more simple solution to the problem we can find more likely it is the correct one.

Last point if i die tonight. I think something that should be looked at more carefully would be the Bussing of DP101 and not take anything by face value. Was that bussing dangerous to anyone and what did it achieve?

Kage, what do you think of Pizza tentatively judging that Cuth-GH-Logic interactions look relatively good for Cuth? It's somewhere in the sea of walls, if you use the browser search.

I tend to get GH wrong, so I've been ignoring him where he doesn't leave an impression, but aside from he and Zack having a lot of 'splaining to do for EOD, the game has been neglecting him so someone needs to ISO.

I feel like Xiahou and El Barto and Cuth are low hanging fruit at this point, and it's pretty likely all three are town in my estimation. If one is scum, then it's one, not three. This group isn't clear and Cuth looks the most town out of them but I get the feeling their weak day ones in the generic sense will get them into trouble. But generics are not specifics and that's too easy. It's gotta be good reasoning, but I think EB and Cuth will have to defend themselves. I want someone making sure Xiahou doesn't get sniped if he's less active and unable to post much.

I've made my feelings up to now clear on Xiahou, right? Pushing Xiahou for 2 posts would be NAGL, forreal. I hope he gets active though.

[Montmorency]

BTW that post was me saying that I'm now working on a GH ISO, that wasn't clear that I'm not asking the thread in general to do it for me.

[Dp101]

Pizza for MVP.

[reinoe]

Spicy.

Strong.

On the other hand, half the players haven't entered play yet. What about Winston? He's been locked into sparring with Zack, and hasn't interacted with or on Logic either.



Maybe you and Winston are talking?

On the other hand, we have a few aggressive players...



Winston. Unless
@reinoe

What do you think of Winston-Zack m/m?

On re-read. I missed this.

Winston's town. Zack probably mafia.

[reinoe]

Spicy.

Strong.

On the other hand, half the players haven't entered play yet. What about Winston? He's been locked into sparring with Zack, and hasn't interacted with or on Logic either.



Maybe you and Winston are talking?

On the other hand, we have a few aggressive players...



Winston. Unless
@reinoe

What do you think of Winston-Zack m/m?

Trying to determine Monty's alignment. Stumbled across this...
Winston town. Zack likely mafia.