oh god get the multiquotes away ahhhh
oh god get the multiquotes away ahhhh
Again though. That sequence of
its ladd/maple" -> let me do my due diligence and reread -> uh ladd is the most villagery person in the game??? and rask is a villager too? i guess its maple/ender or just one wolf or something -> harp on ender killing jan repeatedly
did a lot of work and i think if you read through visors posts at that time he was a lil shook too! maybe just wishful thinking but i see it!
im out for the night, hope to wake up to a win
Black lives matter
Timothy Snyder: Believe in truth. To abandon facts is to abandon freedom. If nothing is true, then no one can criticize power, because there is no basis upon which to do so. If nothing is true, then all is spectacle.
alright, laid on the floor thinking about this game for a while, now time for a reread of the game
i haven't really slept today so i don't know how much i feel like voting before sleeping but i also might just do it, tbd!
Preliminarily, the things I thought about on the floor:
-A question I wanted to answer was: What are the strong reasons for Ender to be a villager. I do think that Ender has posted well in this game, to be clear. (in theory this exercise was: what are the reasons ender is a villa, reasons ender is a wolf, reasons sunbae is a villa, reasons sunbae is a wolf but I think I sorta half dozed off and lost my train of thought a bit. I think I've delved pretty extensively into both sides of this for sunbae though and I just.. realized I felt like I was really lacking in doing so on the ender side of things? And sorta solving both more off sunbae than anything, yesterday, to some extent.)
-Extending from that, I thought about: the weird way Visor played around Ender, asking half the thread what they thought of him but never doing anything with it other than... briefly trying to tie Ladd to him as w/w. On some level this stuff can kinda go either way. But also sticks out to me that Jan hard townread him/shielded him as well. And again, Visor literally never tried to actually kill Ender in any even close to meaningful way at all when there was plenty of alleys for trying to do so I would say.
-I'm hesitant to weight this one a lot cause it's like... inherently speculative and the last time I based a decision on mech spec, the result was "I was wrong and almost singlehandedly lost a game if not for some weird specific mechanical circumstances that pulled it back" although that mech spec was also a lot more ESOTERIC and jank, but anyway, intuitively, it makes a lot of sense to me that wolves have some sort of bomb info or protection role. Some sort of role that interacts with the setup. Like the core role of this setup is clearly that neutral role, and that's where a lot of the other mechanical stuff in the setup springs from and what all of it interacts with. Waza had the village role interacting with it. To circle back to my point, the living wolf is probably a fairly relevant wolf PR. With four bombs out, making nightkills is soooorta a fuckin minefield for wolves that it's hard to imagine there's zero counterplay for.
-To come back to the relevant point moreso, Visor and Jan distinctively avoiding pushing ender and shielding him respectively really sticks out through this lens as fitting with that.
-I do want to really pay attention to this as I reread the game, there's some later Visor stuff I also want to talk about and I also need to pay closer attention to how both treated Sunbae.
Also thought some about the Jan parting gift thing, and how it fit into those mechanical lines, and how basically, using that is choosing to give village that extra kill right then, instead of letting whatever villager has the n3 likely use it otherwise then and likely die unless they're super, super clear. They don't know it's me! I sorta tried to parse that for a while. But if that parting gift turned out to be someone super villagery or something (which it was, but the Result in this case is sorta beside the point) then having Jan not hold and be elimed the next day there is... basically, the wolves let us kill maple for free instead of only being able to use that "free" kill on a specific villager (they didnt know who, but it was me. coulda been maple. i think all the other options possible made doing this significantly worse for them)
So like you want to get HIGH upside out of doing that, surely. I mean if you don't do it... Jan dies the next day, you go to f6, 2:4 or 2:3 depending on what happens with the other gift. Unless gift is on exactly maple and she's the free kill, don't you (you as in wolves) just kinda fucking win that? I mean. Lmao like..
but anyway, going into n1, if 11 alive/3 wolves, there's a real world that hitting a poisonous bomb is literally 50/50 lol. Bit of an extreme end, but seems cursed af if no counterplay at all.
Could also explain stuff like cape kill over .. well I was gonna say me and rask, but idk that rask made that much sense yet there actually, nvm. Obviously I lived cause visor was successfully pocketing the shit out of me. When we talked about this before it was visor saying why not me or visor, lmao. Anyway. Also sorta notable that if they buried the gift and had wolf ender claim it, they basically had to decide the nightkill before EoD.
But, reading the game. Highly focused, as you can see.
Very funny if like.. village Sunbae dropped that Jan strong town p2 read and multiple wolves were both like ??? cause they knew jan was a wolf. Notably, visor and ender seem to be the only reactions.
from an ender W standpoint this is a VERY accurate list (well either way really but especially so). idk how much i think that means in any direction really, nor did he exactly go anywhere with the actually accurate parts on d1
if ender is a wolf, holy moly, no wonder vanta died
really regardless of that lol
In absolutely classic fashion I've got badly sick and will no longer be disappearing to see Beetlejuice stageplay tomorrow. I'm gonna try to sleep and actually have a working brain.
Once again irl conspires against me for ww lol.
Honestly if I get hammered for fitting being "Wolf anti-poison PR" I'll probably at least laugh over it.
I will say that I feel like something I should point out is how Sunbae's arguments keep returning to the "Look at how good my turnaround was!" should be wolfy in a vacuum because like, I can fake progression as wolf and Sunbae is a much better player than me.
And then quoting all the people who called him town while calling them goats, I can do that too and there's several people who did that.
I want to point out Knights who called Jan as wolfy correctly as treestump also dipped a sus down on Sunbae. Kinda d1 so less relevant but like, my point is that quoting people calling you town or your cross wolf is easy and actually means nothing but Sunbae is acting like it's irrefutable proof because audacity and confident statements sway people because it sounds nice.
That's all for me as I go to try and cough up my organs in my bed.
the ladd/ender w/w post from visor
ok i want to see where this, like, actually goes
well
the stuff described here didn't. really even happen psure
thing is, ender still hasn't DONE anything with this read really
not even a vote
visor bringing up ladd/ender, again
(he did kinda soft drop it after)
ok i had to go back and find this post, which is probably about my cue to go to bed
heres the main visor punts on ender, post
mm i do think visor's posts re waza here feel more directed at /killing waza/ than protecting sunbae
i think ender just dropped that vote on me and left? i know he talked about it a bit later/the next day rather, i'll get to it
oh it was here, is this literally it
(he did make more posts but they weren't really about where he was voting or why or about options or anything)
despite having correct multiple wolfreads, ender hasnt really tried to kill the more viable of them to actually die (jan) at all and is ending day on a villager when his read on me was probably the thinnest/limpest reason out of his wolfreads
and he just leaves his vote on me with only the explanation of basically, making interesting wagons when 1. i am there actively posting and people are generally reading my posting as villagery and, well, it is 2. the wagon formation he's describing has gone away/changed
this is just lip service, ender was never dying there lol
i about need to go to bed i think, so gonna finish reading/vote after i sleep, sorry yall
i think its obviously pretty clear what way i am heavily leaning but i do want to finish rereading before i commit
hope you feel better ender
It is true that I'm harping on the same things but that's because I believe those are the main keys that get to the correct answer.
1. I believe my day 3 and day 4 is a clear cut case of a villager who just got a good chunk of information sorting through the game and changing their world view based on it. You can also see that it's not just a 180 out of nowhere but instead is someone taking in new information, adjusting some reads based on it, trying to fit those in with the previous strong reads, realizing it's hard for those to all exist, work through the possibilities required for those to all exist, decide they are unlikely, and then sorting through things again giving more weight to the new information and letting go of the earlier held beliefs. I had my strong Visor v read, realized that Ladd and Rask are likely villagers based on the new information of cape/waza/jan deaths, tried to find the worlds where visor/ladd/rask were all v such as lissa/ender wolves or maple/ender wolves, and then eventually came to the conclusion - with help of listening to my strong villager read of ladd calling lissa v and dead villagers cape/waza calling lissa v - that lissa was not the solution. So I landed on Maple/Ender on day 3 and when Maple flipped V and rask died V I went through the game again and determined the wolves were likely Visor and Ender evident by my voting Visor and telling Ladd I was snapping Ender the next day. It is my belief that this is just not something a wolf can replicate. Pieces of it? Sure. The entirety of the process laid out in order? No.
2. Jan giving a gun to a villager when all the wolves need is for maple to be chopped at any point for the win otherwise is just never happening. I sniffed it out as soon as it happened, latched onto it, and just never shut up about it. I have a bunch of posts talking about it because it never made sense to me. If the wolves are me/jan/visor then all we need is one chop out of maple, ender, or rask in that game state (ever! not just the next day! we can chop jan and then maple and win!) and giving the village an extra kill makes zero sense for us. Once you confirmed that you could holster it I latched on harder because I thought "why wouldnt they just give it to a wolf and not shoot, idk" initially but knowing they didnt have to submit at all made it clear to me. It was a major factor of the majority of my solving from that point. Maple/Ender. Lissa/Ender. Visor/Ender. It all circled around that and even at this point with all the talking about it there has still been no explanation that makes sense for why Jan would give a gun to a villager. There are plenty of reasons you'd give one to a wolf though if you think it will make ender look good while visor has two people pocketed and you can cruise to a maple into me/ladd/rask chop. It also makes no sense for Jan to give the gun to a villager who was suspecting him, which Ender said he was doing.
I have hammered these two things over and over again yesterday/today because I think they prove that both I am a villager and that Ender is a wolf respectively.
as somewhat of a mechanical aside it did occur to me just now that there is a possible upside of giving it to a villager, the possibility of a poison bomb, though that does have less value if it's not on a clear and a wolf is hit in the f7 and a villager can use the item and die but obv poison is possible and whatever its just a bunch of speculative layers
also worth remembering the odds of a bomb being hit by jan (which he did) so he could (and would) have been poisoned anyway
a villager getting poisoned and not jan makes for a mylo but its a pretty specific combo
still feels higher upside to just holster and take the consistent normal mylo, though i guess since jan can get poisoned it isnt actually
meh feels like a bunch of kinda levels
will say bury and claim the shot is the most variance reducing choice, even if jans a bomb you can claim antidote in theory prob
will finish rereading soon just a sort of half awake thought i didnt rly wanna forget even tho idk if it gets me anywhere
it feels like a lot of levels re the odds the wolves played mechanically
Black lives matter
Timothy Snyder: Believe in truth. To abandon facts is to abandon freedom. If nothing is true, then no one can criticize power, because there is no basis upon which to do so. If nothing is true, then all is spectacle.
every time i look at eod2 again i get sad i didn't save waza lol
mmmmmm
to sort of break down the mechanical paths for myself
-give to a villager you kill, doesn't matter if you're a bomb and probably doesn't matter if they're a bomb. they kill you. both die, nobody poisoned, ender wolf claims kill (2:5 no poisons)
-give to a villager you don't kill (ender). matters if you're a bomb, doesn't matter if they're a bomb, probably doesn't matter if your kill target's a bomb. they kill you. you die, your killtarget dies, the villager might be poisoned. the villager claims the kill (2:5 may or may not have a poison/be mylo, janky mylo with other parting out there so village gets effectively an extra miskill still IF they hit this day, which is reasonable to expect to not happen since maple should die, unless she has the parting and people are willing to move for it)
-give to a wolf (ender). they kill you. matters if you're a bomb. doesn't matter if they're a bomb or if your kill target is a bomb. strictly worse than burying. (2:5 unless poison which could be effective 1:5)
-holster (didn't happen). doesn't matter if you're a bomb, matters if your killtarget is a bomb. (3:5 may or may not have a poison/be mylo. if poison, jan outed by it. otherwise, probably jan lim -> maple mislim. if no poison, the other parting gift is a free extra kill on a villager if this day is a hit; could be a wide range of benefit for the village. if maple has parting, actually kinda spicy for wolves maybe.)
didn't really tell me a whole lot further i just wanted to make sure i wasn't missing something, really.
visor said this and i don't think he ever went anywhere with it, really
he definitely also defended sunbae in a /certain way/ but eh
anyway, i am at sunbaes ladd uturn
definitely feel like it is just sort of unnecessary and not that productive if he is a wolf, with ladd having really started latching onto visor
and visor seems... pretty uninterested in giving more than lip service to the ender being a wolf and jan shot a setup line
okay this is the further explanation i was thinking of for enders vote
the thing is, i dont think him staying on that vote really feels like a fit here
i think the momentum had also kinda clearly gone away from me a bit, it was definitely a bit weird at the end
i mean i dont fault him for not reacting to wazas claim or anyhting like that, i froze up at it myself lol
but like
yeah
just kinda popping that vote on me and sticking on it is uh
i mean in the ender v world it does likely explain jan selecting there, but i feel like rask was a better choice (and also villagerier/more villa read so its higher value if jan is a bomb)
i wonder how much knowing i had the n3 parting influenced this pov/bled into it
probably a bit too much not that it matters literally at all
also didnt really think through some weird nuances
anyway
also underestimated how valuable it was for wolves to have jan make it thru eod, i think, cause of the bombs. having jan alive to carry and not risking someone else to the bombs actually kinda huge. guess me moving off made more sense as a wolf than i thought LMAO also explains visor some. anyway
i think sunbaes d3 is very villagery both process and impact wise, clearing ladd there like that seems like an unnecessary and counterproductive line as a wolf
i dont really understand why i thought this in retrospect, sunbae was way ahead of things rather than behind them lol if anything on d3
its funny to reread eod, lament not saving waza, then reread myself previously lamenting not saving waza
fuckin visor pocket
mm
meh
wow i have been all over the place this game lol
funny post if ender w, but also pretty satisfying if i managed to both pull out of the visor pocket and fully flip my reads successfully to win the game
rask having every single antidote is funny as hell
on reflection i dont really know why sunbae would have actually felt the need to do all that fancy shit where he tried to get given the hammer as a wolf tbh
like as a wolf in that f5, after doing the flip around on ladd (right when he really latched onto wolf visor at that) you kinda just commit right, you try to sell me/ender on ladd v and bus and shit
idk
i think ladd voting visor if sunbae didnt vote by that point was pretty predictable
(yeah sunbae you can only multiquote like 5 posts at a time lol i found that out last game on here)
visor seems like he really wanted sunbae to flip on ladd
man visor did post villagery af in this f5 lol (completely unrelated to the above post)
tragic we didnt do this ngl
we coulda reminisced on it in anni 2028 dvc after wolves killed one of us n2 and dayvigged the other d3
sunbae pushing back on my visor villaread
he feels very real in this f5 in general
like he is in a spot where i would argue he was the person with the most interesting/useful collection of information that day, and his posts match it
his me/ender tinfoil is very villagery i think
like you could argue it was a way for him to try to divert from the ladd/visor dichotomy, but 1. in his thread position doing that so openly seems even counterproductive in the sunbae/visor world 2. everyone was clearing me, its not like it going anywhere was realistic
maybe those counter each other but ehh
it comes from a pretty uninformed pov, i think, for a few reasons
i think some of visor's posts about sunbae are possibly my biggest reason that i am still a bit afraid, but i don't think i should or will care about those over everything else
ender took a prowolf line at eod2 for poor reasons and in a way that didn't fit those reasons, and both wolves protected him or repeatedly punted the idea of reading him despite there being a lot of avenues to push him if he was v. he was right about a lot of stuff d1/2 but never actually contributed to killing a wolf with it.
sunbae found ladd v in a real looking way at a very provillage time when he didn't really need to
funny line considering what visor was doing in that f5
i do kinda feel like visor talking about sunbae in 1126 is him talking about a villa, sort of
interestingly reading over my conversation with him again, i feel a lot more serene and clearheaded about making this vote regardless of the result than i did at that point in time (i did towards the end of f5 too, i just held to let ender post/i didn't want to make one more post and say that on the off chance of some double post fuckery or something lol)
i think (i haven't actually got there to reread it yet, i'm just thinking about it because i read the post of mine that prompted it) that the process behind sunbae bringing up ladd to me was villagery and that as a wolf he would probably realize it was do blatantly timed as to be counterproductive lol
also im pretty sure not voting back in lockedvote lylo is like a real tell not just in turbos ngl
it feels like visor had and was aware of every reason there could be to push on ender for days on days but never did anything with it
i know i called a lot of sunbaes d4 blatant openwolfing, but rereading it i definitely feel very differently. he took some weird lines if he was a wolf/his mindset fundamentally feels more like that of a cornered villager and his process/worldview feels very real
and it feels like visor was subtly trying to fuel my sunbae wolfread here
it definitely bugged me when ender came in for a stretch and just didn't really express either a worldview or reads (i know he said he lost a post, but i want to say it's still pretty odd he didn't express /any/ super shortened or something version of it) but there's possibly stylistic elements to that so i'm not sure how much i want to weight it
this was a fun post lol
i have no idea why i said this parentheses when ladd voted first
like i said i'm not really weighting stuff today much, but a few thoughts on this
wrt 2, sure you can argue that but he literally never actually made any attempt to kill you and definitely did have angles of opportunity to try pushing you
i think both 3 and 4, on reread, were pretty weird lines done in pretty weird ways if he is a wolf
(ngl i also actually think i thought visor and ladd were the villageriest on posting at a point around there lol)
bringing up me was literally never going to actually bring the likelihood of me getting killed any higher and did nothing but if anything worsen how i viewed him, probably, from a deciding to do it pov for a wolf sunbae there
like i said, re: rask, you (well either wolfteam) kills rask because i was pocketed as fuck by visor
i do, in general, think if sunbae is a wolf he did a LOT of things that make his life/wincon MORE difficult in ways that don't really give a lot of on the surface credit/benefit as a wolf in exchange
i did thumb through ender's iso in the last org game and while this is never something i'd really base anything on because side by side comparison cold read meta reads suck, he definitely feels a bit Different. meh
i did find this post, and its certainly possible it has to do with irl circumstances, but there's a number of ways in which his posting in this game feels unaligned with this
and to answer this, even if you're not some kind of importantish wolf pr and it's not for that reason, he really did not need to do so
i can certainly empathize with thinking about things in ways people dont expect to some extent
i do think visor seemed a bit annoyed at sunbae's ladd read, lol
i acknowledge that wolves also never particularly tried to kill sunbae itt, but i think the dynamics around that are sorta different, he's certainly not an easy ml and was also pretty wrong early on
whereas ender was pretty right d1-2 but basically never did anything concretely provillage (as in in terms of actually contributing directly to killing a wolf) with it
posts where both visor and ender ???d sunbae's jan read lol
+ ender pointed out a weird jan read on him, +
but didn't really push on it or really actually go anywhere with the wolfread
also this feels more like trying to find an opening on ladd than ender, or to support the idea of them being paired
i do feel like visor, being pretty directly involved in this interaction, would as a wolf especially see it as a pretty reasonable opening to push ender the next day; ender voted had become obvious villager me versus wolf jan for pretty sketchy reasons and then just sorta stayed there while many other people came to find me villagery (including visor) and the effective traction on me died even tho the wagon sort of still existed
and see, tomorrows problem just sort of went on forever
man imagine the timeline where i just swap back off waza to jan or even maple lol
(the timeline where i tie it and die is funny tho)
but imagine if me and waza live, how lock clear i am after that
anyway
i will say that something just occurred to me
rask flipped with the gun from the parting gift, which also means cape would have flipped with that if he had been given it (i think?)
which i believe means that it was actually given to ender
its pretty possible there is some kind of role stuff that made this safe to do tbf
but it is a thing
but uh. like i said, last time i tried to clear someone on bad mech spec, i almost singlehandedly lost a game for it lol
but wolves having some form of bomb prot or bomb inv or even some role with a built in antidote would track fine
ender was both the least likely of these to happen here and the least supported by anything he was posting
just so much visor could push ender for that he never bit on
he asked people about ender, he tried to tie ladd/ender together, he called out ladd for reversing the ender read, but outside of there and this at eod1 (where again ender was the least of a wagon on this list)
he doesn't actually have an ender read
the next day, he brought him up to raskol as missing on his list, but at that point he'd know ender had killed cape
he hmmed at some ender posts about maple
i think this was actually the first time he had any kind of his own read on ender, and it's when ender is going to claim to have killed jan
like he said this but he NEVER actually said anything even after a bunch of people responded lol
i keep going through his d1-2 posts feeling like surely i missed something in this vein right
like he wanted ender to do something and then these
and that is literally it d1-2 as far as any actual talking about what HE thinks of ender
pretty quickly shifts to lightly shielding ender
there is some niggling things that make me slightly paranoid it is sunbae but i don't think they really hold real water, just a few things as i read visor/sunbae interact, but i don't really think they are... anything really, and at points it definitely feels like they aren't really aligned, feels at a few points like sunbae made a correct read and visor is just not interested in picking it up with him lol
i can't decide how to read the sunbae read in this post and it just kinda feels like a level to try so meh
just in general i feel like visor hasn't really talked much about a sunbae read either but
i think its probably moreso lowkey pocketing
i feel like even knowing ender has to have actually had jan use the parting on him/used the gun (actually, wait, that's probably not true and rask just had it flip because he didn't USE it that makes sense actually) but with that not being true, i think if you're using it on a villa you are not killing, you moreso go rask in the hopes he gets poisoned in the process or doesn't kill you given he's much villagerier than ender
this ones pretty thin, but it feels like visor is annoyed he is being pushed for a correct read here lol
i do think those interactions dont really feel partnered from sunbae/visor
this feels more like visor trying to get sunbae to wolfread ladd, than partnered interaction
sunbae just really isnt biting, he reads that and he doesn't try to bolster it OR try to play off it to distance he just goes off and starts casing a me/ender team lol
and it definitely feels like visor is Actually trying to get sunbae to villaread him and wolfread ladd here
and this just doesnt feel like a paired/distancing post, the way he talks about them being locked in on each other
again these feel like pocketing attempts moreso. it's very similar to the way visor was interacting with me a bit later on about hesitation to vote etc
this feels like him not wanting to completely shut down concerns about me
and this just feels like trying to fan the flames of his tinfoil about that line
i have someeee tiny tinfoil about the timing of the interaction between this and the below but it'd really be like TOO transparently orchestrated if along those lines to be realistic, lol
i think sunbae's progression to here is extremely villagery
especially right out of... the post where he asked me for thoughts on a visor/ladd world lol
this also just vibes unpaired lmao
in the maple eod, visors wall, he talks about ender and points out some problems but seems completely uninterested in actually going anywhere with it and basically openly punts... again
then goes back to like
not. talking. about ender
and yeah this is the thing w/ jan too lol
as a side note, this is probably the chillest and most serene i have ever felt making a f3 decision as a villager
right or wrong, i feel okay with things and like i can see clearly and make a reasonable assessment based on them and feel good about it and okay if i get it wrong instead of being overwhelmed and stressed and unable to see anything clearly really
between general recent Character Development that's impacted how i deal with things like being wrong and how yesterday went
this feels again like a subtle attempt to get me to wolfread sunbae (along with seeing us as on the same page)
like idk, kinda just feels like visor is talking to me about a villa here lol
its def more about me than about sunbaes alignment tho
rereading the sunbae question to me about ladd, i feel like its clearly unlikely im gonna care about it so it just looks surface level bad for no reason and the paranoia behind it feels believable and reason he got there is pretty nuanced lol
anyway i could reread until the cows come home but at this point it is definitely well in the territory of purely making me feel better about my vote, i am pretty sure i am not changing my mind, so i suppose it is time for me to vote
Ender coming to you live from a pile of blankets.
Tbh I don't even know where to begin convincing you I am town. Partially because sure my game has been a little scattershot and partially because it really feels like you've already made up your mind lol.
yeah i can wait a little bit longer if you want to say anything further but i'm gonna be real i'm not really sure there is much you can do atp that would change my mind and i don't really expect to weight posting in f3 very much
sorry if wrong but i am feeling fairly confident
I kinda expected to lose it to Sunbae. He's an eloquent and thorough wolf lol.
I can't think if anything new to throw out there tbh. Brain fog and I feel like I've already highlighted the relevant points.
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