Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Uhm, why wouldnt there be mafia lover in that setup? It seems highly likely to me from the simple that fact that the rules state 'There is no cult', not 'there is no 3p' which town/mafia lovers are essentially.

Think about the game balance.

We know Choxorn is an inventor with at least 1x Vig and 2x Doctor/protect. We know the Mafia had 1x Strongman. Without speculating on roles for the final Mafia, which is almost certainly not a killing role at this point, attaching one of four scum to a lover is a serious handicap.


Monty, Csargo, do you know mechanically that the other is town or not?

It is not host-confirmed.

[Csargo]

Monty, Csargo, do you know mechanically that the other is town or not?

No it doesn't specifically say he's town. It says blah blah blah town lover.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Now I got a question: Isnt a lover pair of town/mafia considered 3p here that only wins together and not with their respective alignments? That how it works where I'm from

I can't speak for Sooh.

I haven't played enough on Dragonmount to know how they handle lovers, never saw any while I played there a few times.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Of the two, Csargo still looks guiltier to me. So I'll read his game and decide if it makes sense...

If not, I'll help Slaan self-terminate.

[Csargo]

Of the two, Csargo still looks guiltier to me. So I'll read his game and decide if it makes sense...

If not, I'll help Slaan self-terminate.

I will continue to be forever and always townie to the core, so lynch me if you can't see that.

Vote:Slaan

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am just being super thorough.

Did you two mind meld on reads, or did you force your reads to be similar because of the lover aspect?

In other words, when you did agree during the game, was it strategic, or natural?

[Slaan]

So some random thoughts under the assumption they are essentially 3p... quickly how it works on where I'm from: Fellow wolfes know of the '3p wolf' but don't know he is 3p. 3p wolf participates as normally in choosing NK target.
- Would there be yet another mafia around? Unlikely, because then there would be 5 mafia in total and that would've raised eyebrows with the other wolves in this 17 person set up
- So that would mean that mafia faction itself was eliminated (quite possible Sooh wouldnt comment on that)
- Balance would look bad for mafia. Only 3 ppl and they have an opposing factions that knows their identities... yea very unlikely, I'm going to discard this possibility.

[Montmorency]

I am just being super thorough.

Did you two mind meld on reads, or did you force your reads to be similar because of the lover aspect?

In other words, when you did agree during the game, was it strategic, or natural?

He was suspicious of you D1, and we both criticized Zack. We didn't talk substantially (not like, standard volume) until you started pushing Csargo yesterday.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If the mafia faction were eliminated, and it were announced, then the lover team is a third faction.

[Sooh]

Guys, I made a booboo. It's D5. Day is supposed to be 24h. Here is a vote count with the correct phase length. Other posts will be modified to reflect this.

Vote count:

Xiahou (1): Slaan,

Slaan (1): Csargo,

Not voting (6): Cuthillius, Dp101, Montmorency, Choxorn, Xiahou, Pizza,

With 8 players there are 5 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508104800.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

The reason being, if the mafia is dead, and the game continued, there would be a town hostile faction remaining.

[Askthepizzaguy]

We have three dead scums.

If the situation were such that town only wins if we eliminate a mafia inside the lover team, that basically gives the mafia 5 useful members.

Even if the "townie" inside the lover team is marked as town, his concern is then only to survive. He's not really town, but 3p and essentially hostile to town.

So, if one of them were scum, the game would have 5 hostiles.

Versus just a joat? That's tough.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Slaan

[Slaan]

Now onto the possibilities of a mafia/town that doesnt win alone but with their respective alignments... havent ever seen this before so I'm just spitballing
- I think it's NAI overall in terms of balancing? Yes mafia looses on of their own if the townies dies but the same goes the other way too.
- Town Joat giver does seem strongly very pro town and with a potential doc still out there... if there isnt a doc though I can see a town/mafia couple here. I mean w/o investigative roles having ~25% mafia is rather mafia sided in the first place
- Two townies in couple would be strongy anti town, so then I'd assume a doc is around and the doc wouldnt be among them?

Idk how strongly I should evaluate those PR's though... do they make up for a missing cop alone even with joat+doc? I think this would roughly equalize so why penalize town with a two town couple? Probably because it was 17 players at start and not 16 (for the exact 25% mafia ratio), so forcing two townies to essentially have one 'killspot' together fits here.

So I guess I buy the two towny theory? Which is great as this guarantees my Xia lynch at some point https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/love_s.gif

[Montmorency]

We have three dead scums.

If the situation were such that town only wins if we eliminate a mafia inside the lover team, that basically gives the mafia 5 useful members.

Even if the "townie" inside the lover team is marked as town, his concern is then only to survive. He's not really town, but 3p and essentially hostile to town.

So, if one of them were scum, the game would have 5 hostiles.

Versus just a joat? That's tough.

If the win conditions are the same as town, then Mafia only hampered not helped. For example, if one lover says to the other D1 "I am scum", then he can just ask to eat a lynch and you trade 1 scum for 1 townie.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So close to victory if they were third party or hostile. I had just pushed monty out of the poe, and they win at f4 automatically pretty much.

No sense claiming here unless they think for sure that Csargo absolutely has to be the lynch.

And if that's the case, they'd have both been in favor of the Slaan push instead of arguing the merits.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So I guess I buy the two towny theory? Which is great as this guarantees my Xia lynch at some point https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/love_s.gif

You're a bitter ender, like me. Never resign!

Ok. Lover team wins. Slaan/Xiahou and god help us if thats not correct.

[Dp101]

I'm in favour of just clearing the lovers, they are self-resolving, right?

[Slaan]

We have three dead scums.

If the situation were such that town only wins if we eliminate a mafia inside the lover team, that basically gives the mafia 5 useful members.

Even if the "townie" inside the lover team is marked as town, his concern is then only to survive. He's not really town, but 3p and essentially hostile to town.

So, if one of them were scum, the game would have 5 hostiles.

Versus just a joat? That's tough.

I don't see this argument, if I knew this was a possibility as lover I'd try to figure out the alignment of my partner (you guys have a chat btw?) and if I thought he was scum I'd probablys suicide myself by telling my town buddies if I only win with my faction. I mean that is the obvious thing to do...

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm in favour of just clearing the lovers, they are self-resolving, right?

Yeah, and the game mechanically makes not a ton of sense if even one of them is scum.

Man, I had both in my POE, lol pizza.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan gets ultimate townie points for pressing Xiahou if that's the right guess.

I never, ever get there without all this mechanical help.

[Montmorency]

I don't see this argument, if I knew this was a possibility as lover I'd try to figure out the alignment of my partner (you guys have a chat btw?) and if I thought he was scum I'd probablys suicide myself by telling my town buddies if I only win with my faction. I mean that is the obvious thing to do...

Is there an echo here? :clown:

And here's the clincher for how you know Csargo isn't scum: when Csargo was getting his share of suss from Pizza and others, Csargo apologized for his lackluster play potentially screwing me over.

[Montmorency]

This was D1, to be clear.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Without a hard claim from Xiahou I'd never lynch there today, and Slaan already claimed vt.

Easy way to resolve which goes first.

Votes plz.

[Slaan]

Yeah, and the game mechanically makes not a ton of sense if even one of them is scum.

Man, I had both in my POE, lol pizza.

It will be Xia and you will look like someone with a <45% winrecord as town! https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/brauen.gif

https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/tongue1_s.gif

But ok, I'll selfvote here so we/you don't waste a rl day and I don't have to worry anymore. I don't think we'd ever get behind pizza or dp at this point if they just GOATed the game until here. If there is scum in the lovers I think they have a high chance of winning. Lets play it through:

Slaan lynch -> chox nk -> xia lynch -> pizza NK -> now there is 4ppl with Cuth, dp and the lovers. Cuth could be scum or the scum could be in the lovers... even if cuth and dp agree to vote the lovers it would be a coinflip I think.

Anyway, will be up to you. Hammer me now

Vote: Slaan

[Montmorency]

Wait for him and Cuth to show.

This is a short day anyway.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wait for him and Cuth to show.

This is a short day anyway.

He's asking to be lynched, I think we should give him what he wants.

[Slaan]

Is there an echo here? :clown:

And here's the clincher for how you know Csargo isn't scum: when Csargo was getting his share of suss from Pizza and others, Csargo apologized for his lackluster play potentially screwing me over.

Why would he care about that as mafia? Just takes a towny with him if he can get the other mafia to bus him?

[Csargo]

I am just being super thorough.

Did you two mind meld on reads, or did you force your reads to be similar because of the lover aspect?

In other words, when you did agree during the game, was it strategic, or natural?

If I ever agreed with Monty it was natural, or previously discussed in the qt.

[Slaan]

Vote: Slaan

Voting is hard

[Montmorency]

He's asking to be lynched, I think we should give him what he wants.

Aye

Vote: Slaan

[Askthepizzaguy]

Keeps bringing up my 2011 town win record as an undermining tactic.

Lol undermining.

Once is a joke, twice is a taunt.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkhwlcVAClk

[Slaan]

Calling it like I see it!

@Xiahua Dp101 Choxorn Cuthillius

Vote meee

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm in favour of just clearing the lovers, they are self-resolving, right?

Cap it.

[Slaan]

Xiahou *

[Slaan]

Pizza snap read: Am I town or scum?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza snap read: Am I town or scum?

U ded bro.

[Slaan]

https://i.imgur.com/ijnKjMY.gif

[Slaan]

https://i.imgur.com/7TAGy7m.gif

Lolcatting as town to keep y'all guessing

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you finally giving me Slaancats?

:heart:

[Slaan]

https://i.imgur.com/jDHA0qv.gif

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Slaan (4): Csargo, Pizza, Slaan, Montmorency,

Not voting (4): Cuthillius, Dp101, Choxorn, Xiahou,

With 8 players there are 5 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508104800.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats!

[Slaan]

https://78.media.tumblr.com/5585557aa38ed99b311922fb2c16c8b8/tumblr_or1g445OMI1wpzqblo1_1280.jpg

source: https://genji-cat.tumblr.com/page/2

[Slaan]

My fav:

https://78.media.tumblr.com/7ebc1b58cfd1b01d3baa80e03419c8c2/tumblr_or1gf6LciH1wpzqblo1_1280.jpg

[Slaan]

Where is everyone >_>

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/b0/27/56/b027562295035769f82f545589595cc4.gif

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll allow this.

:2thumbsup:

[Dp101]

Fine, if you insist. Vote: Slaan. This feels suboptimal, but whatever.

[Slaan]

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/fe/88/c1/fe88c149e3220f3cd78df9a2cf1e799e.gif

[Askthepizzaguy]

Insert jackhammer f5 animated gif here.

[Slaan]

Fine, if you insist. Vote: Slaan. This feels suboptimal, but whatever.

Thanks^^ hf gl all

[Sooh]

That's a lynch!

Slaan (5): Csargo, Pizza, Slaan, Montmorency, Dp101,

Not voting (3): Cuthillius, Choxorn, Xiahou,

With 8 players there are 5 to hammer.


Standby.

[Sooh]

I mean.

I've heard of rapid chess.

But this was.... off the charts.

Oki. As you wish.

Slaan was:

Bobby Fischer.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/Bobby_Fischer_1960_in_Leipzig_in_color.jpg

You are an American chess player, whose days of grandure were in the 1970s. Since then you disappeared for a while, showed up in Yugoslavia, disappeared again, showed up in Japan and got arrested, disappeared again, you get the picture. Thankfully the Icelandic let you come and stay with them. Your peak rating was 2785.

You are a Vanilla Town.


EON 5:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508104800.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

:stupid:

[Montmorency]

Xiahou ride or die.

[Choxorn]

Super Lame

[Montmorency]

Askthepizzaguy

I think I've figured it out.

I think for all the reads/leans Zack, GH, and Logic (where applicable) have on the same people, you see these patterns:

Logic is scattershot. Where he is involved, he can deploy supportive shade (e.g. Reinoe), corroborate consensus town reads (e.g. DP), just make something up (e.g. Slaan), or go contrarian to his partners (e.g. Kage)

The GH-Zack team has a few joint town reads (e.g. DP, Kage), or joint scum reads (e.g. Cuth, Barto, Choxorn), but more subtly they have reads where one sees scum and the other stays nullish (e.g. Manasi) or one sees town and the other nullish (not sure, for a time maybe Fred).

So that's Mafia vs. Town, but what's next? How the Mafia read each other:

Logic: GH and Zack consistently defend him, keep him at null or light-to-moderate town.
GH: Logic shades GH a bit for townreading Kage. Zack from my review doesn't outright give read on GH, but he does engage him a lot on other people, and he does explore GH's meta (for wanting to "read him better" in an exchange that Winston and others thought especially good for both).
Zack: GH comfortably places Zack at the top of his town pile, and also has an episode early in the thread where he prods Zack about meta: does scum-Zack deny other players their townreads of him? Logic never tries to assess Zack - ooh, distancing.

That's a lot of variations, and investigating each individual pattern gets complex very fast. But you know what we haven't seen yet? You don't see both GH and Zack taking a nullish, non-committal stance on the same character.

Xiahou: GH put him just below his townline, but wanted to townread him. Zack shaded Xiahou for his vote on him but kept him nullish to be resolved later, and this indirectly by responding to Csargo asking Xiahou "why" for keeping his vote on Zack and sussing GH.

This is very strange! Why are the Zack-GH interactions with Xiahou, few as they are, marking a joint pattern that doesn't seem to manifest anywhere else with any other player?


What's so special about Xiahou?


I'll get this more detailed/cross-referenced by the end of night.

[Xiahou]

FWIW, I would've voted Slaan too after his self-voting tantrum. It makes no sense for town to self-vote. I assumed it to be a last-ditch effort to throw suspicion.

So where does that leave us?

[Dp101]

FWIW, I would've voted Slaan too after his self-voting tantrum. It makes no sense for town to self-vote. I assumed it to be a last-ditch effort to throw suspicion.

So where does that leave us?

With you, basically.

[Cuthillius]

FWIW, I would've voted Slaan too after his self-voting tantrum. It makes no sense for town to self-vote. I assumed it to be a last-ditch effort to throw suspicion.

So where does that leave us?

i thought the way he went about self voting was rather villagery, actually?

it wasn't a frustrated GAH YOU GUYS ARE AWFUL JUST KILL ME ALREADY

but more a sure ok whatever let's do this

which... i don't see him doing a ton as a wolf at this point in the game?

[Dp101]

i thought the way he went about self voting was rather villagery, actually?

it wasn't a frustrated GAH YOU GUYS ARE AWFUL JUST KILL ME ALREADY

but more a sure ok whatever let's do this

which... i don't see him doing a ton as a wolf at this point in the game?

I thought something similar, but thought that he could still be a wolf just not wanting to get overly emotional again.

[Xiahou]

I thought something similar, but thought that he could still be a wolf just not wanting to get overly emotional again.
Well, obviously, he was town.

So what about AtPG, the puppet master? Any reason he's above suspicion? I had a real scummy vibe from Csargo- but he's produced a somewhat convincing alibi. I mean, I can't/won't read thru all prior posts- but I don't remember him ever even being considered suspicious.... :inquisitive:

[Dp101]

Well, obviously, he was town.

So what about AtPG, the puppet master? Any reason he's above suspicion? I had a real scummy vibe from Csargo- but he's produced a somewhat convincing alibi. I mean, I can't/won't read thru all prior posts- but I don't remember him ever even being considered suspicious.... :inquisitive:

ATPG cannot win as a wolf in F3. Like, he would get instantly voted by anyone who ended up there with him, therefore, a bussing strategy (like the one he would have to have used) is basically impossible.

[Csargo]

ATPG vigged Zack and I wouldn't think that would be allowed if he was scum, unless there's some weird mechanical shenanigans going on. Choxorn is cleared because claim. So that leaves me, Monty, Dp, Xiahou, Cuth.

[Xiahou]

Hmmm... so why hasn't the pizza man been killed yet? When offing someone shuts them up- why not take him out? I've probably missed something important. ~:handball:

What about Cuth or dp then? Both got some votes/suspicion cast on them by known scum, iirc- but not when there was any real danger of it meaning anything. Providing cover, perhaps?

[Dp101]

Hmmm... so why hasn't the pizza man been killed yet? When offing someone shuts them up- why not take him out? I've probably missed something important. ~:handball:

What about Cuth or dp then? Both got some votes/suspicion cast on them by known scum, iirc- but not when there was any real danger of it meaning anything. Providing cover, perhaps?

Cuth was definitely shaded, and if he is scum, his own partner not knowing he was voting me is amusing, so I’m not ruling it out completely. If you want to try making a case on me, please read through Pizza’s 2 ISOs of me first, I’ll link them in a bit. They are rather similar in parts, but still worth reading IMO.

[Dp101]

Cuth was definitely shaded, and if he is scum, his own partner not knowing he was voting me is amusing, so I’m not ruling it out completely. If you want to try making a case on me, please read through Pizza’s 2 ISOs of me first, I’ll link them in a bit. They are rather similar in parts, but still worth reading IMO.

Ok, that first sentence makes no sense in review. What I meant was that while he was shaded, it's not like he's been a shining beacon of towniness, so it's possible that there was just distancing happening.

Here (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762626&viewfull=1#post2053762626)'s the first Pizza ISO of me, and here (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053764062&viewfull=1#post2053764062)'s the second.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok.

That one was tough, that one was like being punched in the gut super hard.

I was... dead sure Slaan would flip wolf. All the blood drained from my face.

I beat myself up over that result far more than you guys will ever know. At that point, I've been doing all the wolves' work for them and balanced out my contribution to the town to something like half and half. But I'm the only reason why final scumguy got this far and that stings.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I've done all the defense of Cuth and Xiahou I can.

At this point, even if I have to drag this to a lame mechanical victory, and swallow my pride about my town reads, I have to.

Mechanically, it doesn't make sense for the wolf to be inside the lover team. That's just too many votes against not enough firepower for town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think this is the actual truth of the matter. I haven't even looked at this game all day, I just wanted to be on record as fixing my mistakes before I die.

All the wolves had the same read on Cuth, and I think that was on purpose. I think GH deliberately voted Cuth for voting someone else, even when it didn't make any sense because cuth hadn't voted.

Just elaborate distancing.

Cuth probably said in wolf chat that he was super not interested in even playing this game, or that he was insanely busy and that they shouldn't rely on him. Maybe he didn't have any powers.

At the time, Zack and Logic were under heavy threat, and if Logic flipped, GH would look bad.

So they hard distanced from their teammate who wasn't ever in danger on day one. The only one that wasn't in danger from the Logic lynch.

That way, when they all flip, Cuth looks good.

That explains both their behavior, and Cuth's own gigantic drop in input after D1.

His role at that point is simply to keep his head down, and let me do all the talking and defense for him.

He, by the way, showed up again only after I had locked him town for that analysis on him versus GH and Zack.

The timing on that felt a little suspect, but I was in death tunnel on Slaan.

It's Cuth, not Xiahou.

[Askthepizzaguy]

It wasn't a total collapse. They were playing against the analysis, playing against what I always do when wolves flip.

They got me.

They didn't suck this game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The vote by GH could have legitimately missed that his own partner didn't actually vote on the person he was asking questions about, or that could have been by design. Someone notices that there was no vote.

Or, if the wagon on Cuth takes off. GH can go Oh, You Didn't Actually Vote There. I didn't see that. That takes away my case.

Unvote.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The main town points cuth ever got was because of the other scums.

If you assume all of that movement was distancing, the rest of his game, post day 1, sucks out loud and is scummy as hell.

[Dp101]

Ok.

That one was tough, that one was like being punched in the gut super hard.

I was... dead sure Slaan would flip wolf. All the blood drained from my face.

I beat myself up over that result far more than you guys will ever know. At that point, I've been doing all the wolves' work for them and balanced out my contribution to the town to something like half and half. But I'm the only reason why final scumguy got this far and that stings.

Eh, you carried us early on, don't feel too bad.

[Dp101]

And yes, I'm perfectly fine with a Cuth lynch.

[Askthepizzaguy]

How confident am I?

55/45

Cuth, then Xiahou.

Xiahou only being suspected because all the other suspects didn't pan out, and because it is replicable to do this game as he did and just bus everyone and coast after that. It's trivial, I just don't see it happening a lot.

And, well. I'm not confident on much of anything anymore. Except that dp101 is my townie buddy.

Cuth's game and strategy on day one and the other wolves' strategy toward him makes sense. That's a winning plan.

Xiahou's moves do not make sense as a winning plan.

That's what edges it out for me.

If it was all on Xiahou to win this game, then he was to bus GH and Zack, and then do nothing else all game that was townie, and just hope no one POEs him, when all game, people have wanted to POE him or were suspicious that his accuracy had to be bussing.

Ok. So then it's not a winning plan, is it?

Maybe it's the one they were forced into.

So, you guys decide which. That's my guess.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Eh, you carried us early on, don't feel too bad.


No.

No I did not.

My value to town is directly a function of what the others in the game do.

I cannot innately find all the scumbags and clear most of the townies. That's not possible even if I find one of the scums independently of anyone.

Any analysis I did this game that was correct, and I did do a bunch, was all because of how active, engaged, and correct my fellow townies were.

I had issues clearing some slots, but mechanics saved the day on those.

All I did was when others on my team did a good performance, I was able to recognize it and say they did so.

That takes a village.

I am just a guy with a big mouth and too much confidence in my own reads.

I nailed the easy reads, but the hard ones I got backwards.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I hate to disagree with Slaan after all his work, and the consensus that it has to be Xiahou now.

No. I blew the Cuth read because the thread was an anti-analysis minefield specifically designed to get him unearned town cred from the dead wolf spew.

Cuth might not play that way, but Zack and GH? Hell yes. They probably came up with it.

It would have worked but Cuth didn't do anything after day one except coast.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And if it's Xiahou, you guys all see it and I'm a dummy. So. Have at it.

I got the three easy wolves and I missed the only wolf that matters, regardless who it is.

I'm only alive because wolf is playing against the idea there was a full doc, and because I was very useful to him, not his teammates, but him.

I am the evidence the wolf is in Xiahou and Cuth. But Cuth's behavior after I town read him and gave reasons why it wasn't him, is why he's guilty.

Xiahou don't give a shit.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can't tell anymore, do we have enough lynches to hit them both?

If so, you can win this game. It's not in dp and it shouldn't be in the lovers.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza
Choxorn
Dp101
Monty
Csargo
Xiahou
Cuthillius

Even if the lovers both died tonight, that puts us at a final 5, which means enough time to hit them both.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it was Csargo then we should have lynched him on the day Xiahou and I voted him and the rest voted for Barto.

But a town/scum lover pairing is bad balance, imo.

[Dp101]

Pizza
Choxorn
Dp101
Monty
Csargo
Xiahou
Cuthillius

Even if the lovers both died tonight, that puts us at a final 5, which means enough time to hit them both.

Yeah, I think we have a lock, I don't think there's any more point beating ourselves up. We've won, probably.

[Montmorency]

I can't tell anymore, do we have enough lynches to hit them both?

If so, you can win this game. It's not in dp and it shouldn't be in the lovers.

We should have two lynches.

Look, Pizza, you have a point about Cuth being attacked by Zack and GH, and my counter was that so were Barto and Choxorn, but Cuth is the only one who was attacked by all three flipped scum.

However, what do you think about both GH and Zack taking time to talk about Xiahou's action indirectly, only to conclude with nullish reads ('not arrogant enough to town-read but want to'/'he voted me for no good reason but should be resolvable in the future'), a parallel that from checking D1 several times was not evident with any other player?


Your analysis this game has been high quality, you just sometimes get hung up on obscure specifics and connections that other people have a hard time interpreting or scrutinizing - so it's hard to talk you out of points you're wrong on.


Pizza
Choxorn
Dp101
Monty
Csargo
Xiahou
Cuthillius

Even if the lovers both died tonight, that puts us at a final 5, which means enough time to hit them both.


I have a thought about this, and I'll say if I'm able to when night ends.

[Askthepizzaguy]

What I can say about Xiahou is that I can be wrong about him.

I just have not seen the strategy employed by him this game if he's scum. Typically, the wolves that don't talk and don't influence do not join in on suspicions on a talkative, high value, high influencing wolf on day one, when there are lots of low hanging fruits to park a vote on.

If I had seen that strategy employed more since I began playing nine years ago, then I'd suspect Xiahou. I even admit that it's trivial to replicate.

I just.... have no history of such a strategy in my memory ever being executed by any low talker wolf, ever.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think the only thing my high effort this game was worth, in the end, was the ability to guess wrong this many times and still be in everyone's town lists.

That's it. It gave us one additional townie over standard. A lot of work and little to show for.

[Dp101]

I think the only thing my high effort this game was worth, in the end, was the ability to guess wrong this many times and still be in everyone's town lists.

That's it. It gave us one additional townie over standard. A lot of work and little to show for.

I'm really not sure that we all would have come around to GH and Zack, or that we would have collectively cleared as many people as you managed to. Sure, you were wrong, but slots like Reinoe's I'm not sure if I ever would have townread. Hell, the logic push that got this all started would not have been as successful without you constantly telling literally everyone to vote him. Again, this is pointless, please stop beating yourself up over your mistakes while ignoring what you did well.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can't ignore my mistakes. They directly impact others' enjoyment of the game.

Listen, guys. If you all were sentient AI programs who don't have feelings, I feel great about my game.

Instead, I've definitely annoyed a lot of people this game. That sucks.

[Askthepizzaguy]

2/4 and agreeing with an additional 1 in the 4 is respectable even if I guess wrong.

The problem is, there's more to the game than guessing right or wrong. If people aren't having fun no one gives a shit what the outcome was.

[Cuthillius]

I think this is the actual truth of the matter. I haven't even looked at this game all day, I just wanted to be on record as fixing my mistakes before I die.

All the wolves had the same read on Cuth, and I think that was on purpose. I think GH deliberately voted Cuth for voting someone else, even when it didn't make any sense because cuth hadn't voted.

Just elaborate distancing.

Cuth probably said in wolf chat that he was super not interested in even playing this game, or that he was insanely busy and that they shouldn't rely on him. Maybe he didn't have any powers.

At the time, Zack and Logic were under heavy threat, and if Logic flipped, GH would look bad.

So they hard distanced from their teammate who wasn't ever in danger on day one. The only one that wasn't in danger from the Logic lynch.

That way, when they all flip, Cuth looks good.

That explains both their behavior, and Cuth's own gigantic drop in input after D1.

His role at that point is simply to keep his head down, and let me do all the talking and defense for him.

He, by the way, showed up again only after I had locked him town for that analysis on him versus GH and Zack.

The timing on that felt a little suspect, but I was in death tunnel on Slaan.

It's Cuth, not Xiahou.

...go jump in a lake?

this is the most ridiculously conjectural and awful push you've made yet this game

you really think that all the wolves, on a team like that, would have agreed at the start of the game saying "hm yeah let's kinda push this guy all d1"

you think that's how things would have played out?

so they would have been like yo let's all throw cuth under the bus, and wait no never mind let's go logic instead, but let's try to cfd onto ANOTHER PERSON

and then they all die but since i was bussed it's a perfect plan and i win in f3!

like

number one "Cuth probably said in wolf chat that he was super not interested in even playing this game, or that he was insanely busy and that they shouldn't rely on him" is absolutely awful regardless of anything else

apart from the fact that it doesn't line up with me, how i play in general, or how i played this game

it's also just kinda slimy

"He, by the way, showed up again only after I had locked him town for that analysis on him versus GH and Zack."

uh

so

i hate to bring this up in this context but

like i said i had no motivation to play game during hurhur lettuce tunnel specific person and make fun of them for being so bad phase of game

the gamestate changed from that to one that was actually interesting/inspires some sort of collaboration and effort

about the time i got sick and was barely conscious for a day and a half, and only as of yesterday/today have been able to give a wildebeest's vertebra about this game

it's also a blatant misrepresentation of "showing up" but hey

[Cuthillius]

The vote by GH could have legitimately missed that his own partner didn't actually vote on the person he was asking questions about, or that could have been by design. Someone notices that there was no vote.

Or, if the wagon on Cuth takes off. GH can go Oh, You Didn't Actually Vote There. I didn't see that. That takes away my case.

Unvote.

gh straight up ignored my post where i pointed out that i didn't vote

that would look rrreally awful if he were to try to come back and say "oh lol oops"

[Askthepizzaguy]

So lynch Xiahou. If it's him then me fleshing out a scenario where you're scum doesn't matter.

Again, if I'm not allowed to be wrong about you, then don't play with me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I have all the sympathies in the world for my other players, but if it comes down to you're mad because I think you're a wolf, tough shit.

[Cuthillius]

I have all the sympathies in the world for my other players, but if it comes down to you're mad because I think you're a wolf, tough shit.

oi

if that's the impression you're getting from what i'm saying, i'm sorry, because that's not what i was trying to communicate at all

and i said nothing of the sort?

so

whatever i don't really want to participate in a discussion framed like this

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok. If that's not what you're saying, then it's fine. I got a lot of hostility out of the go jump in a lake comment.

New topic.

[Cuthillius]

So lynch Xiahou. If it's him then me fleshing out a scenario where you're scum doesn't matter.

Again, if I'm not allowed to be wrong about you, then don't play with me.

again, where are you getting "not allowed to be wrong about you"

i am a bit frustrated, but purely by the way you're approaching this and the way you've been approaching the entire game

admittedly, telling you to jump into a natural water feature was not necessary, but it's hardly a statement of aggression and shutting my pov to you

i get that you think i might be a wolf, and i would too, i'm certainly not a modpeeked villager

but i responded to your arguments with my own, and not with a categorical statement that you shouldn't be wolfreading me

if you want to have a discussion about what i did and how what happened would ever make sense within the world you're proposing, i'd be happy to

that was the gist of my post, and that was the entirety of what i was arguing

[Cuthillius]

Ok. If that's not what you're saying, then it's fine. I got a lot of hostility out of the go jump in a lake comment.

New topic.

ok

i'm sorry

didn't mean it to come across like that

regardless, my points about your points still stand

[Askthepizzaguy]

There's nothing more to discuss unless you think it's me, dp, or the lovers.

If not, then if it's not you then it's just Xiahou and he picked the one strategy I'd never be able to wolf read, but everyone else did.

What happens next doesn't matter, if so.

[Askthepizzaguy]

ok

i'm sorry

didn't mean it to come across like that

regardless, my points about your points still stand

Cuth, I think you're a great guy.

I'm not trying to be emotionally manipulative, or to deny anyone else their right to be upset. I just got through beating myself up over the game for guessing wrong, so I just... wasn't in a space to hear something hostile.

Normally, I'd be okay. This game, I am not okay.

Not your fault.

[Cuthillius]

i do not mind other people thinking i'm a wolf, calling me a wolf, or saying "look at how these things are wolfy"

i do take issue with people saying stuff like "oh look this guy probably just didn't care about the game and told his wolfbros that before the game so he bussed them" when that's both patently false and out of line with everything else, whether from a standpoint of meta or what's happened in this game

that's all

[Askthepizzaguy]

I spent too much time lookin' at the game and I got too emotionally invested in the outcome.

At this point it's just gotta be okay for me that the wolves did a plan I didn't wolf read in the last wolf.

I'm there, but I also need to not look at this thread.

Someone please kill me.

[Cuthillius]

There's nothing more to discuss unless you think it's me, dp, or the lovers.

If not, then if it's not you then it's just Xiahou and he picked the one strategy I'd never be able to wolf read, but everyone else did.

What happens next doesn't matter, if so.

i'm honestly kinda concerned about the situation as it stands

we have a lot of ~clears

and then a poe

if it's not xia, and i have ~no feelings on that specifically

just a bit worried about going through the rest in the right order, especially since with one NK per night it would be quite possible for a deep/bussing wolf to go a long way without it looking particularly unusual, given the high level of confidence with which so many people are declared to be villagers

i'm a little weirded out by the lovers apparently not being mod-confirmed that the other is in fact town, and while i think it makes more mechanical sense and is more likely from sooh's pov afaik for them to be v/v, i'm not 100% convinced there and hope they're one of the earlier NKs

chox is obviously off the table

but then

meh

yeah i'm just

slightly concerned about this being a bit mortal kombat-like

probably more than ideal

[Cuthillius]

Cuth, I think you're a great guy.

I'm not trying to be emotionally manipulative, or to deny anyone else their right to be upset. I just got through beating myself up over the game for guessing wrong, so I just... wasn't in a space to hear something hostile.

Normally, I'd be okay. This game, I am not okay.

Not your fault.

yeah i get it, and i'm sorry for my part in not being diplomatic or handling it as well as i could have

don't like to get that part of my emotions involved in games

[Cuthillius]

all that aside, you dying in the next couple nights is probably pretty unlikely

[Dp101]

i'm honestly kinda concerned about the situation as it stands

we have a lot of ~clears

and then a poe

if it's not xia, and i have ~no feelings on that specifically

just a bit worried about going through the rest in the right order, especially since with one NK per night it would be quite possible for a deep/bussing wolf to go a long way without it looking particularly unusual, given the high level of confidence with which so many people are declared to be villagers

i'm a little weirded out by the lovers apparently not being mod-confirmed that the other is in fact town, and while i think it makes more mechanical sense and is more likely from sooh's pov afaik for them to be v/v, i'm not 100% convinced there and hope they're one of the earlier NKs

chox is obviously off the table

but then

meh

yeah i'm just

slightly concerned about this being a bit mortal kombat-like

probably more than ideal

This is basically the last thing I'm worried about, the lovers not both being innocent. I guess we will find out soon enough though.

[Cuthillius]

yeah was just taking them as a thing

same point applies to fred or whatever

[Dp101]

yeah was just taking them as a thing

same point applies to fred or whatever

But fred already died.

[Montmorency]

i'm a little weirded out by the lovers apparently not being mod-confirmed that the other is in fact town, and while i think it makes more mechanical sense and is more likely from sooh's pov afaik for them to be v/v, i'm not 100% convinced there and hope they're one of the earlier NKs


all that aside, you dying in the next couple nights is probably pretty unlikely

This is interesting to bring up. Could you explain your thought process predicting the last kills? Best of all to post it just before the round ends.

[Cuthillius]

But fred already died.

monty?

whoever

you?

pizza?

anyone

[Askthepizzaguy]

If one of the lovers is scum,

If it's Monty I don't mind. I mean, I pointed out the tie creation stuff. And I've been saying his wolf game is amazing.

This one just a cut above everything else.

If it's Csargo, Monty can decide on that and lynch him tomorrow. I am just going to assume he should be able to scum-read Csargo. I said why he can be scum.

Interesting that neither one ever got shot, but there were a lot of townier looking people.

But it feels like we've collectively decided that mechanically they can't be scum, so if that's wrong we just lose and I feel a lot less bad about it because then we're all in the same boat.

Plus they played it cool enough that it is a deserving win.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Personally?

I hope it's Cool Hand Xiahuke.

Showing me something I've never seen before from a low talker and playing the whole game ice cold.

I'd smile.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If I had two shots, I'd lynch Cuth, and then Csargo.

Xiahou for the win.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I guess technically the order would need to be reversed, just in case Monty's win condition triggers at f4

[Askthepizzaguy]

So... Csargo final 6 lynchee, kills him and Monty.

Then Cuth in final 3.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't think that's gonna happen, so. We will probably lynch inside Xiahou and Cuth and then see how that panned out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Afk.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Not AFK.

Five scums too many, I think.

If one of the lovers is scum and the other is town, that means the townie involved doesn't have a lover's win condition and should lynch the other if they think that person is scum, even if it results in their death.

Monty, I'm guessing that is you. You have the power to save the town you love, and you must choose. Town or your lover. If you're a townie, then I think you could be headed for a heartbreak.

If it's Scum and Third Party, how is the third party functionally different from a scum? They win with this one scum but not the others. That's about it.

Strange Scum/3p setup. I've never seen one.

Scum/Scum lovers, I've seen in mashes. They share the same win con but both die when one dies.

I can't say any of these scenarios are likelier than the town/town lovers.

I just needed to put it on my brain and spin it around and think if it can be true, for a bit.

If it's 3p/Scum then we'll lose. We'll be distracted by the Xiahou/Cuth and it'll be game.

If it's Scum/Scum I think that's odd to put in a smallish game. And Monty-scum played a goat game.

If it's Town/Town then it's inside Xiahou/Cuth and we've got a 50/50. But you know, I think the post game beratements will be too many if I explore this scenario.

For post game beratements alone, I have to keep it to Xiahou/Cuth.

If it's in the lovers, I officially resign that universe. Every other townie must decide that. I cannot have that on my conscience and be wrong. My karma this game is already iffy.

[Montmorency]

Not AFK.

Five scums too many, I think.

If one of the lovers is scum and the other is town, that means the townie involved doesn't have a lover's win condition and should lynch the other if they think that person is scum, even if it results in their death.

Monty, I'm guessing that is you. You have the power to save the town you love, and you must choose. Town or your lover. If you're a townie, then I think you could be headed for a heartbreak.

If it's Scum and Third Party, how is the third party functionally different from a scum? They win with this one scum but not the others. That's about it.

Strange Scum/3p setup. I've never seen one.

Scum/Scum lovers, I've seen in mashes. They share the same win con but both die when one dies.

I can't say any of these scenarios are likelier than the town/town lovers.

I just needed to put it on my brain and spin it around and think if it can be true, for a bit.

If it's 3p/Scum then we'll lose. We'll be distracted by the Xiahou/Cuth and it'll be game.

If it's Scum/Scum I think that's odd to put in a smallish game. And Monty-scum played a goat game.

If it's Town/Town then it's inside Xiahou/Cuth and we've got a 50/50. But you know, I think the post game beratements will be too many if I explore this scenario.

For post game beratements alone, I have to keep it to Xiahou/Cuth.

If it's in the lovers, I officially resign that universe. Every other townie must decide that. I cannot have that on my conscience and be wrong. My karma this game is already iffy.

2 scum is mechanically ruled out by the host. Only 1 scum left.

Aside from the balance arguments, I pointed out various private town-tells by Csargo, like sussing Zack, showing consideration for how his play affects me as his lover, and being immediately supportive of going public.

At this point I'd legit consider you or DP before Csargo, and scum Pizza should never be apologizing for scum-reading his POE.

[Montmorency]

Even if Csargo were 3P, if you don't lynch last scum you still lose. If he's not hostile 3P he might as well be town right now.

[Cuthillius]

This is interesting to bring up. Could you explain your thought process predicting the last kills? Best of all to post it just before the round ends.

i mean it's not rocket science

power roles and getting two birds with one stone

these both take priority over pizza most likely especially if wolf is someone who he is/was protecting which is almost the entire game at this point

[Askthepizzaguy]

At this point I'd legit consider you or DP before Csargo, and scum Pizza should never be apologizing for scum-reading his POE.

Hey, you're the one who played all game in a qt with him. If you are town like I think you are, you have the best chance at scum reading him out of anyone. If you're both town-compatible lovers, it's fine. Lynch into Cuth and Xia.

Note: I absolutely have to sleep and I mean on time, this round.

I have important school stuff in the morning.

If I were to survive the night, I am not going to be commenting after the next kill for about 12 hours.

I can't, because I won't be able to sleep. Period. I'm already going to have trouble.

It doesn't matter who gets killed if it's not me. I will be obligated to offer thoughts, so every single scenario was already discussed by me here and now, over the past night phase as well.

It's all there. I cannot be here after the flip.

I cannot even look at the flip. I won't leave the computer if I see it. I can't control myself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, if you want me to vote, don't speed lynch next round.

[Montmorency]

i mean it's not rocket science

power roles and getting two birds with one stone

these both take priority over pizza most likely especially if wolf is someone who he is/was protecting which is almost the entire game at this point

I wish you had posted this a bit later, but OK. My implication was that Mafia in the abstract would take less value from killing me and Csargo, because getting rid of two townies matters less in endgame if it reverts the rounds from even numbers to odd numbers. Keeping us around would therefore be better for Mafia as long as they have hope of mislynching us, otherwise they would end up in LYLO facing two townies rather than a more malleable three. I don't like putting this out in public since it would actually be useful for town if we got killed (and not lynched), so the best hope would be that Mafia doesn't recognize the calculation and just try to get rid of us, but there isn't a point in keeping it on the low anymore. Either it happens right now or it doesn't.

We're not power roles; we can't do anything other than share a QT and a life.

As for your last sentence, do I understand that you're saying Pizza is a doctor? I feel like I'm misunderstanding.

[Sooh]

Good morning everyone!

Ready for another stretch?

Off we go, and remember, it's only a game.... isn't it?

Choxorn has left the building. He was:

Ron Weasley.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IRZ6Jyb55Kk/hqdefault.jpg

While you can come across as a clutz at times, you are a master at Wizard Chess, a skill that has proven useful to you in the past. Given your skills in magic you are able to give those you trust among you certain powers.

During the night you can choose to study a spell. Once you can study a spell which will give your selected target [redacted]. However, since this is deep magic, you are limited to giving each trusted friend only one power. They aren't wizards like you, you know.

You are a town role baker.

EOD6:

https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508191200.png

[Dp101]

Well that flavour is certainly unexpected. Was kinda hoping one of the lovers gets shot so that we don't have to tinfoil the setup.

[Montmorency]

948 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762208&viewfull=1#post2053762208) is GH's big reads post, 948.

See also this post (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053764348&viewfull=1#post2053764348) for the basic observations and argument: Xiahou is discussed (but not interacted with) in a way that GH-Zack as a pair don't evidence wrt anyone else; they both give noncommittal, nullish assessments.

Remember Reinoe's cool tell about Zack commenting on everyone except Logic (296)? And then Zack asked Logic what he thought about people townreading Kage (496 and answer 518)? History doesn't repeat itself - but Zack does rhyme.

More detailed breakdowns by player for checking my work:

Xiahou: GH put him just below his townline, but wanted to townread him (948). Zack shaded Xiahou for his vote on him but kept him nullish to be resolved later (920), and this indirectly by responding to Csargo asking Xiahou "why" for keeping his vote on Zack and sussing GH.


DEAD SCUM

Logic: GH and Zack take largely similar positions that Logic had a few stains in his play but was mostly like in other games, except where there were differences in how this game's D1 played out - especially as regards Pizza's pressure on him out the gate.

Zack: GH has Zack as top town (948); also wants to know his meta to better read him, townreads as wolf (late 400s-early 500s; Winston finds it towny). Logic never tries to assess Zack.

GH: I'm not sure Zack ever states an outright read on GH (says he and Fred both look good in their exchange, 920), but wants to know GH's meta better to better read him (486-491). Logic may have to re-evaluate GH since he townreads Kage (518).



DEAD TOWN

Barto: GH is nullish, won't be able to read until he flips, self-admittedly a lazy read (744), but by the reads compilation has him scummy third-from-bottom (948). Zack goes hard against Barto (600s, 829),

Choxorn: GH's second-to-bottom scumread (948), just before he votes him. Zack likes the case against him and is the second to vote (931).

Fredwood: GH shades gratuitously (400s), then leans on DP's reads to help read Fred town for the day (744). But by the time of the big leans post (948), Fred is back in moderate scum. Zack has Fred as one of his first comfortable above-null reads, along with Slaan and DP (474); finds both GH and Fred townier after their exchange later ().

Kage: GH has Kage as top town below Zack. Logic goes hard after Kage for voting Slaan (397/9). Zack feels better about Kage after talking to GH (491).

Manasi: GH votes Manasi (838) as a seeming random or pressure vote. Zack asks how well he reads Manasi, and GH says he reads her "reasonably well" (855); Zack meanwhile reads Manasi "not too good, and by which I mean horrible" (860), and that's the end about Manasi for the day.

Reinoe: Shaded by Logic for voting him (397), possibly sheeping Pizza. GH starts by sussing both Reinoe and Fred (477), but eventually Reinoe improves into moderate town (695, 710, 948), but with no progression; one post GH is looking at Reinoe, next he's moderate town w/ no comment. Zack never gives a specific read, but he shades Reinoe for kicking the puppylike DP (474), asks him some questions.

Slaan: Logic thinks town wrt Kage (457). GH starts wary of him but eventually improves to moderate town (477, 948); Slaan is a player who improves as the game goes on. Zack says Slaan seems fine, maybe a good wolf but not worth pursuing early (491).

Winston: Zack susses several times after a playful, mutually passive-agressive start, ultimately settles on Winston probably good (920). Logic shades Winston wrt the problem with lynching Pizza (457). GH has him nullish, second above the town line (948).



LIVING

Csargo: Logic said Csargo and Pizza not teamed, one but not both a wolf (397). Zack had an early-game vote exchange with Csargo, shades him sometimes, got into a meta dispute (high 200s); sometimes accused Pizza of tunneling or wanting to mislynch Csargo (563, 787). Doesn't want to push him, but doesn't want to town-read him (741). See also piggybacking wrt Xiahou (920). GH votes Csargo just after game start (12), shades over posting a gif Csargo had posted previously as scum (372), accuses Pizza of tunneling Csargo and Logic (686), ultimately has him null just below his town line (948).

Cuth: Attacked by all 3 scum (uniquely). Shaded by Logic (397) for shading DP, having feelings no one else does. Zack tears into him... GH votes him but by the long reads post (948) has him moderate scum, between Xiahou and Fredwood.

DP: Logic says town, not teamed with Zack or Pizza (397). GH (477, 948) and Zack both think he's town, until the sudden flip with the CFD.

Monty: GH had me as 3rd most town (948). Zack seemed to be increasingly hostile as OMGUS over the day, culminating in the CFD (note how Zack was confronted early in the day about an alleged OMGUS habit by Csargo, a habit he vehemently denied.) Logic had no comment on me other than shading Pizza when I asked him about interactions between DP and Pizza.

Pizza: Logic shades for acting weird (397, others). GH and Zack threw plenty of criticisms, but overall liked to read him town.


Side note: Looking back GH had some sloppy progressions on the low-posters and Fred up to his culmination for the day, the 948 reads post.

[Montmorency]

Well that flavour is certainly unexpected. Was kinda hoping one of the lovers gets shot so that we don't have to tinfoil the setup.

Sounds like he had unlimited shots.

My Vote: Xiahou, is.

[Dp101]

Sounds like he had unlimited shots.

My Vote: Xiahou, is.

I'll join you later, I don't feel like hammering immediately today.

[Dp101]

Hey Xia, can you give any of us any reason not to vote you?

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Xiahou (1): Montmorency,

Not voting (5): Cuthillius, Xiahou, Csargo, Pizza, Dp101,

With 6 players there are 4 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508191200.png

[Cuthillius]

oh

there are six people left

i

have not been paying very much attention

[Dp101]

oh

there are six people left

i

have not been paying very much attention

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

[Cuthillius]

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

fun fun

[Cuthillius]

i want you to picture the situation where the lovers are not NKed

and figure out what on earth we'd do

because i'm really not sure how i'd feel about that

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

Why?

[Askthepizzaguy]

i want you to picture the situation where the lovers are not NKed

and figure out what on earth we'd do

because i'm really not sure how i'd feel about that

Well, the game is already over by then, because you're innocent.

Did you forget?

[Askthepizzaguy]

A situation where the lovers are not nightkilled is the situation where Askthepizzaguy gets murdered.

Leaving a final 4 of dp101, Cuth, Csargo, and Monty.

From Cuth's POV, he's innocent, and therefore the final scum would have to therefore be inside of dp101, or Csargo/Monty.

If the final scum is one of the lovers, mechanically the game doesn't make a lot of sense.

So he's basically accusing dp101 of being the final scum.

Or me, because I like to kill my partner Zack with a vig shot.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And by the way, we're also predicting the Xiahou lynch results in a dead townie.

Something that I've been told by a few people here ain't gonna happen.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I have a loooooooooot of skeptical face about the Xiahou lynch and think we should lynch Cuth, then Xiahou, if we are indeed committed to those two.

[Cuthillius]

Well, the game is already over by then, because you're innocent.

Did you forget?

see but

what if it isn't

i'm not as comfortable about the mechanical lover read as you are, honestly

i agree that it's unlikely

but i do think that them still being alive would be... awkward, especially depending on other kills

meh

[Askthepizzaguy]

One of the lovers is never going to be lynched this game.

If it's one of them, the game is over.

Xiahou, you me and dp101 are the only ones alive who could lynch inside of there, and we would need all 4 votes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

One of the lovers is not going to lynch the other tomorrow. Their reads would have to flip and there's just no reason to do so.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Cuthillius

I'm not looking to start a fight or cause a fuss, but I want to walk you through what I'm thinking now, in a completely inoffensive way.

You know I suspect it's you over Xiahou. Let's pretend I am wrong, and for this post, you're a townie. But I still suspect you.

You would be in the unique position, from my point of view, of knowing that Monty and Csargo are both townies and also, don't know each other are townies.

In such a scenario, it's viable to kill me and leave them alive in a final 4, hoping you could persuade dp101 and Monty to lynch Csargo, or dp101 and Csargo to lynch Monty, or to persuade the lovers that dp101 is the final scum and that stuff between GH/Zack and dp was all a trick to get him townread.

Your survivability, shall we say, improves dramatically, from that certain point of view. You think you got better odds in a final 4, mainly because dp and I town read each other.

But Cuth, you're forgetting they shared a qt all game and are very strongly townreading the other. One of the lovers will not break ranks and lynch the other tomorrow, even if they don't know each other is innocent for a fact.

They will not lynch dp101.

That's not a viable route to victory.

You'd do better with me and dp101 both alive in final 3 because the two of us shouldn't both be alive in final 3 because then you're putting both of us together in a final 3 with you and then tinfoils can happen.

I even spent about 5 minutes thinking about it, and realized I was thinking about it, and I also realized that dp101 might spend more than 5 minutes thinking about it.

That's the best route, if I were in your shoes. Because it's less likely to make sense, from our perspective.

And when two strong mutual townreads find themselves in an f3, the tinfoils get insane. Like, nonsensically insane. Anything can happen.

[Askthepizzaguy]

At final 4, it's fruitless to try to get dp to lynch one of the lovers when they won't lynch inside themselves.

Then the vote count is 2-2 at best.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The final 3 scenario cannot result in a locked vote, so you always have to kill the lover team tonight.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah, and 2 of them are lovers so we are most likely going to be in F3 next phase.

This.

It's just not viable to not shoot the lovers, as unpleasant as any final 3 situation might be, it's the only endgame where anything can happen.

final 4 results in the lover team always having 2 votes against one of the remaining 2 people. You have to then conceive of a scenario where they lynch either dp101 or Pizza.

That one just seems like wishful thinking to me.

So if it is Xiahou, you have to lynch him today, Cuth, because lylo will include either the lover team or me in it, and you don't win that lylo unless you convince dp101 to lynch me.

You have to be a townie and he has to be a wolf or it's game over.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I will always have trouble lynching Xiahou over you tomorrow.

If it's him, this is the only day that's possible, for me being alive to help you lynch him.

[Cuthillius]

leaving aside the hypotheticals of what i would or would not do, because i honestly have no idea-- i think this gamestate is massively affected by whoever the remaining wolf is, whether that is xia or someone else

i think, again, depending on who it is, it wouldn't be shockingly disadvantageous for a wolf to bring the lovers into f4

i agree that if it's me it would be a death sentence, because that's three people who would probably come into the day thinking i have the least going for me, and i'd have to talk them into voting one of them

i think if the wolf is... either you or in the lovers, it also makes a reasonable amount of sense to go there?

even though mechanically speaking it would be telling to some extent, in theory, unless someone's playing headgames that are just straight up bad

if it's dp then... he's probably good with killing the lovers, because it probably gives him the game

then again if it's me i really would have no good options, you and dp are both quite certain of each other's alignments and he would be very unlikely to follow me over you, because i don't have your silver tongue

honestly all this is just persuading me more and more that it's gotta be xia out of desperation and the unlikelihood of anyone else actually being a wolf

but

realistically

the lovers should/would be killed tonight if xia is a villager, probably from any of our three's perspective as a wolf

bringing them to f4 would be (quite literally) self-defeating unless the wolf is relatively confident they're not going to get any of the votes

but this is why i'm bringing the possibility up now

because while it's a mechanical unlikelihood, it is a possibility, and one we should probably weigh and think about

[Cuthillius]

also while you keep harping on the "i vigged zack" line

i just don't think a wolfteam composed of the three dead wolves plus you ever ever ever behaves like that

[Montmorency]

I think you guys are feeling the corners of something, but not quite grasping it: if bringing lovers to LYLO creates a high likelihood of a tie, then maybe that's just fine.

If scum were one of Pizza or DP, they kill us lovers, lynch Cuth, easy. If scum were one of Xiahou or Cuth, go for a paranoia tie because then they have a 50% chance of victory.

And maybe that's the best they can hope for.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think you guys are feeling the corners of something, but not quite grasping it: if bringing lovers to LYLO creates a high likelihood of a tie, then maybe that's just fine.

If scum were one of Pizza or DP, they kill us lovers, lynch Cuth, easy. If scum were one of Xiahou or Cuth, go for a paranoia tie because then they have a 50% chance of victory.

And maybe that's the best they can hope for.

People won't go with a tie, they'll go with their next most likely wolf and try to win without a coin flip.

I would never put this game on a coin flip after all the work I did here. I think that's distasteful in the extreme.

I hate flipping coins to begin with, but the time to do it is early game, trying to lynch a wolf. Not at lylo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Anyone in lylo with the lovers should be voting the other nonlover person, period.

Hope you were wrong. That's all that's left.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Turbos decided by coin flip, fine.

Not long games.

[Askthepizzaguy]

also while you keep harping on the "i vigged zack" line

i just don't think a wolfteam composed of the three dead wolves plus you ever ever ever behaves like that

Vote: Cuthillius

Harping?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it's just Xiahou then this shouldn't be this much of a struggle for you, man.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I have a good town read on Xiahou and I'd still lynch him tomorrow because it has to be him at that point, read or not.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I believe it is time to declare the game a draw.

Sucks, but that's the way it has to be. I am feeling influenced now by the posts I am making that are being thanked.

This is why I pushed for a rule for the gameroom that people should not thank posts during play. People did not agree with me.

But this is why I am correct: I don't know if the dead players are spoiled.

But, when they thank posts after they are dead, even if I try to push it out of my mind, I cannot. I feel like they're trying to encourage me or even just thank the posts of townies.

As such, it's not fair on cuthillius, Zack, GH, and Logic, if the dead people are spoiled.

If they are not spoiled, I still feel influenced and that is killing my entire desire to play.

I know you guys probably don't mean to do this, but I cannot in good conscience continue play under these circumstances.

If you are not spoiled in the dead place, stop thanking posts, please.

If you are spoiled, this game is over and it is a draw.

[Montmorency]

I believe it is time to declare the game a draw.

Sucks, but that's the way it has to be. I am feeling influenced now by the posts I am making that are being thanked.

This is why I pushed for a rule for the gameroom that people should not thank posts during play. People did not agree with me.

But this is why I am correct: I don't know if the dead players are spoiled.

But, when they thank posts after they are dead, even if I try to push it out of my mind, I cannot. I feel like they're trying to encourage me or even just thank the posts of townies.

As such, it's not fair on cuthillius, Zack, GH, and Logic, if the dead people are spoiled.

If they are not spoiled, I still feel influenced and that is killing my entire desire to play.

I know you guys probably don't mean to do this, but I cannot in good conscience continue play under these circumstances.

If you are not spoiled in the dead place, stop thanking posts, please.

If you are spoiled, this game is over and it is a draw.

OK, now it makes sense, that you or whoever was hosting discouraged it in whichever game I thanked a post soon - Oh, it was FrenchRev. Definitely see the problem.

My disclosure, during the night Reinoe thanked me for asking Cuth about the kill logic:


This is interesting to bring up. Could you explain your thought process predicting the last kills? Best of all to post it just before the round ends.
Sooh

[Sooh]

The dead (with the exception of the dead mafia) are not spoiled. We keep playing as is, but I don't want any more post thanking from dead people.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok.

That's all that matters. If the dead aren't spoiled, then it cannot be read into, rightly or wrongly by anyone.

If dead player x thanks post y of a player, and dead player x was town, if they're spoiled, it puts the thought into ones mind that it could be alignment indicative, either of the read contained within the post, or of the alignment of the thanked party.

If the dead don't know my alignment or Cuth's, then it's completely null and the game should be fine.

And for reference, I've posted pretty much the exact kind of post in a similar situation many years ago when I was not town; people had been using thread tags in that game after they were dead. I'd say the exact same thing in either alignment, and I'd phrase it just like if I were a townie if I'm mafia. Alignment doesn't matter- if it can be construed a certain way, by anyone, it matters. If it cannot be construed at all, by anyone, then it's fine.

So we have four hours. If you guys are lynching Xiahou today, you can do so.

If it's somehow dp101, then the cfd thing was amazing and good entertainment and well acted by each party.

If it's the lovers, we don't have the votes to lynch there as far as I can tell.

[Askthepizzaguy]

What's the call Monte.

Lynch Xiahou, then/if town, what?

[Cuthillius]

vote:Xiahou

i'm going to laugh about your thing from over ten years ago wrt his meta if he flips wolf

by the by

[Askthepizzaguy]

vote:Xiahou

i'm going to laugh about your thing from over ten years ago wrt his meta if he flips wolf

by the by

He's got a consistent meta, what can I say.

Plus, I really like that Zack vote. That's good and it's nice and cold.

I can see how it's possible, I am not blind to that. I can even see how dp101 is possible.

But possible and what I believe are two different things.

If someone came to me and said it's possible dp101 is mafia, I'd say... okay.

If someone said let's lynch dp101 today, I'd say.... buh?

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Xiahou (2): Montmorency, Cuthillius,

Cuthillius (1): Pizza,

Not voting (3): Xiahou, Csargo, Dp101,

With 6 players there are 4 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508191200.png

[Montmorency]

What's the call Monte.

Lynch Xiahou, then/if town, what?

I'm very confident in Xiahou, but if that doesn't work I will vote Cuth the next day.

I'm not going to tinfoil on lock townies at this point, if only because I almost always cock up LYLO hero stuff. Keep it simple, stupid (Monty). Two suspects, two lynches.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it's not Xiahou, then what do you do tomorrow if I am dead?

@ everyone.

That may affect how I vote today.

[Montmorency]

Well, not tinfoil publicly. But that's separate from how I'm thinking about the vote.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm very confident in Xiahou, but if that doesn't work I will vote Cuth the next day.

I'm not going to tinfoil on lock townies at this point, if only because I almost always cock up LYLO hero stuff. Keep it simple, stupid (Monty). Two suspects, two lynches.

So then why would Cuth keep you alive?

[Montmorency]

If it's not Xiahou, then what do you do tomorrow if I am dead?

@ everyone.

That may affect how I vote today.

If DP or Csargo start twirling their mustaches, I'll think lateral.

[Askthepizzaguy]

But you and Csargo won't vote each other and you have 2 votes.

Why would Cuth keep you alive?

Even if the play is to fool dp into voting for one of you, that's not a winning plan. You have 2 votes.

[Montmorency]

So then why would Cuth keep you alive?

As you said, only you could convince yourself that DP is scum, or convince DP that you are scum. Otherwise, as I said, Cuth's only chance is a tie flip. What would you do in that scenario (setting aside your rhetorical skills)? Do you feel an F3 is the only honorable way to die so you set that up for yourself as scum every time? :shrug:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Whoever is dead doesn't get to think about this and say things tomorrow, so this is the last round.

Xiahou is dead and is a townie.

All the scenarios which are possible after that event should be looked at.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As you said, only you could convince yourself that DP is scum, or convince DP that you are scum. Otherwise, as I said, Cuth's only chance is a tie flip. What would you do in that scenario (setting aside your rhetorical skills)? Do you feel an F3 is the only honorable way to die so you set that up for yourself as scum every time? :shrug:

Well, I just don't agree that Cuth's only chance is a tie flip.

If you're alive in final 4, then the game state looks wrong to me. That's not a winning plan and I'm a stickler for plans that win.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch Xiahou, shoot me, that's a valid plan.

[Montmorency]

Lynch Xiahou, shoot me, that's a valid plan.

Is it equally valid for all players, or more so for you and DP?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch Xiahou, shoot me, that's a valid plan.

Hit send too soon. ^From Cuth's perspective.

But to me, I don't think it wins. He's gotta bet the farm that you guys lynch dp, because dp lacks the votes to lynch you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is it equally valid for all players, or more so for you and DP?

Such a plan makes sense from dp's perspective, if he's somehow a wolf here.

Which I just don't see. All the evidence points the other way.

[Montmorency]

Hit send too soon. ^From Cuth's perspective.

But to me, I don't think it wins. He's gotta bet the farm that you guys lynch dp, because dp lacks the votes to lynch you.

For whatever it's worth:

@Cuthilius

Would you be satisfied betting on a coin flip if the alternative was facing DP & Pizza?

I think this breaks along differences in basic assumptions.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The way I see things Monte, is that you and I and dp are townies.

I can see universes where any of the others are guilty.

But, if any of csargo or dp are guilty, they will not be lynched in final 3/4.

And Xiahou always gets lynched, and either you or me dies tonight, Monte. So, I want to be thoroughly exhaustive.

You're absolutely sure, betting the game, that it's not csargo?

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is the last and only round where csargo is lynchable.

[Montmorency]

The way I see things Monte, is that you and I and dp are townies.

I can see universes where any of the others are guilty.

But, if any of csargo or dp are guilty, they will not be lynched in final 3/4.

And Xiahou always gets lynched, and either you or me dies tonight, Monte. So, I want to be thoroughly exhaustive.

You're absolutely sure, betting the game, that it's not csargo?

Are you calling me "Monte" to impress your seriousness upon me?

Let me ruminate for a few minutes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

time is ticking, so where I'm at is I'm eating dinner, and then putting to bed any thoughts on csargo or dp before the flip.

I tend to agree the decision on tomorrow needs to be made today. People get tinfoily tomorrow.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you calling me "Monte" to impress your seriousness upon me?

Let me ruminate for a few minutes.

I am saying this is the call we can't take back.

We've had all game to try various scenarios and then the next day go the opposite way.

If it's dp or csargo, this is the last round either of us could reasonably determine that and make it happen.

I don't think it's dp, but I don't think it's xiahou either.

I know we're lynching xiahou. The question is, does it have to be today?

[Montmorency]

I am saying this is the call we can't take back.

We've had all game to try various scenarios and then the next day go the opposite way.

If it's dp or csargo, this is the last round either of us could reasonably determine that and make it happen.

I don't think it's dp, but I don't think it's xiahou either.

I know we're lynching xiahou. The question is, does it have to be today?

Is this saying, if you had to lynch Xiahou it would be better to lynch him after Cuth?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is this saying, if you had to lynch Xiahou it would be better to lynch him after Cuth?

I don't even know what I'm saying anymore.

Like, the purpose of my previous several posts is to shake my brain and everyone's brain free of assumptions.

How we vote tomorrow is super predictable, and if we are wrong, this is the only day we can really examine it properly.

By tomorrow, the tinfoils cloud judgment.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The struggle is real for me if it's Xiahou or dp, either one.

I never get there in time. The only reason why it's Xiahou tomorrow is because he always lynches instead of dp, right? It's not even because I think he's scum, it's because if I choose between Xia and dp I choose dp to live.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The struggle for you, if it's csargo, could be equally daunting.

All I ask is that we think about it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So the murders were meant to avoid hitting doctor protection, yes?

Even with that restriction, why are the people who are alive now alive?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why is dp alive instead of fredwood, why is monty and csargo both alive when you were in a lot of people's towns, monty?

Even if Kagemusha was lock town, why did he have to go instead of someone else? Why choose those kills?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why does Xiahou kill those people and lose the game?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Who did the dead people want to lynch, did we check?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Like, pretend it's Xiahou.

Okay, I'm alive because I'm defending him, but it's not enough now is it? He also kept alive a bunch of people who are fine to kill him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

rip my dinner.

[Montmorency]

Csargo started the day right away, alongside GH, Zack, Pizza, Winston, and me. He had a number of D1 interactions with Zack and others that could be seen as distancing, or slips. However, his vote on Logic shortly before EOD could be seen as decisive. Or it could be seen as bussing. That means Zack was telling the truth when he said Logic was bussed - in a way. That could be reverse-psychology ("Zack lied!") to misdirect away from Csargo.

Cuth came in shortly after Logic came under threat, poking at DP. They had a conversation, then Zack started hounding Cuth over alleged DP shade. Soon after, Logic arrived to sheep Zack on this accusation. But then he voted Kage. Then Zack seems nullish on Cuth, calls in GH, and GH makes a few reads and votes Cuth. GH makes his infamous Aladdin exhortation that Kage vote Cuth. Kage follows. Pizza and others defend Cuth, time passes, and we hear no more about him from the scum. They move on to Barto. Then Cuth returns to challenge all this stuff, and to townread Zack. So this is all also interpretable as distancing. (In the middle of Cuth's return, Xiahou arrives to vote Zack incidentally). When Cuth still has two votes on him (GH and Kage), Kage asks Csargo what he thinks of Cuth. Csargo sees it as just typical Cuth, not worth pursuing. As a result, Kage switches onto Logic and soon after, GH quasi-rands into voting Manasi. Cuth is not mentioned again for the rest of the day (other than to be moderately scum-read ("but improving") by GH. He only posts again near EOD to shade Monty-Zack and a "discredit-y" post by Logic. He never votes, and ends as the only non-voter of the day.

Csargo's level of engagement and nature of content was consistent after D1. He did post less, but it was proportional; almost everyone was posting less, especially after 3 scum had flipped.

Cuth dropped away almost entirely, whether it was a strategy, or anti-strategy, or just his feeling on the game and RL during that time.

In the end, I have Csargo's QT presence, but I don't have the same for Cuth. On the face of things, both Csargo and Cuth acted consistent with being on a scum-team with Logic/Zack/GH. Maybe if I had no relationship with Csargo, or even if we were lovers w/o a QT, I would suggest Csargo should be lynched today, and Cuth/Xiahou resolved only after. But seeing Csargo in private puts an amount of his D1 activity in a much better light, along with independently towny thoughts, so this is what I have to consider.

I have to vote Cuth over Csargo. If you think it works out better, I could be brought to vote Cuth over Xiahou today.

But I just don't see how I vote Csargo at this point.

You should have vigged Csargo when you had the shot, then dragged out Zack for all the spew. :shrug:

[Askthepizzaguy]

No, even if Csargo were a wolf, having you around helped my analysis a lot.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In case it's dp?

What do you see there? Is that even possible.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't even like putting this tinfoil on.

It rests on my head very uncomfortably.

And it looks very silly.

[Montmorency]

In case it's dp?

What do you see there? Is that even possible.

DP interacted with most people a lot D1, but I don't really want to reread D1 post by post again. If you're looking for apparent distancing or PIS, eventually you can find it.

The only singly scummy feature of his play has been the dip in activity since D2. But he explained that as not feeling impelled to participate while someone else was doing almost all the steering, and successfully. Most people dipped in activity, or started the game with low activity and never found their footing.

Scum DP would make his activity some truly sick-nasty power wolfing. Given all the off-site games he's been participating in, I wouldn't be surprised if he has more experience under his belt after a year than I do after 6 - but that's nothing to play on.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I should make a tinfoil hat, and take a picture of myself with it on, because lol this game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

DP interacted with most people a lot D1, but I don't really want to reread D1 post by post again. If you're looking for apparent distancing or PIS, eventually you can find it.

The only singly scummy feature of his play has been the dip in activity since D2. But he explained that as not feeling impelled to participate while someone else was doing almost all the steering, and successfully. Most people dipped in activity, or started the game with low activity and never found their footing.

Scum DP would make his activity some truly sick-nasty power wolfing. Given all the off-site games he's been participating in, I wouldn't be surprised if he has more experience under his belt after a year than I do after 6 - but that's nothing to play on.

Plus, I just tend to believe his self-meta about his scum game.

I feel like his emotions are real.

Which leaves me with 3 suspects, Csargo, Cuth, and Xiahou.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If we are not lynching Csargo today then it's like, we're never going to.

Since you're opposed, that's gg csargo.

That leaves the Xiahou and Cuth poe. Otherwise, I don't have the votes to lynch Csargo.

So. On with the POE.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I put the tinfoil hat on. So, if the tinfoil was correct, that's as close as we ever got.

[Cuthillius]

For whatever it's worth:

@Cuthilius

Would you be satisfied betting on a coin flip if the alternative was facing DP & Pizza?

I think this breaks along differences in basic assumptions.

except it's not really betting on a coin flip, if i were a wolf that'd depend on me being able to persuade pizza/at that point i'd probably gun harder for one of you i'd imagine to get that or something

i think shooting to give f4 only really makes sense if the wolf is not me

if it's a lover, they have to

if it's dp or pizza, they feel like they can easily win no matter where the votes go just by the way sentiments go

so i'd probably do dp and pizza? phrasing

but

i don't know on what level i'd even be operating if i was a wolf surviving until this point in the game

[Askthepizzaguy]

Me unvoting and then voting Xiahou here feels like a betrayal.

My gut is all wrong about this even though I have a poe of two lynchable people.

unvote

This is what I'm going to do instead.

I won't split the town vote. If I'm wrong on Xiahou, then I won't contribute to a possible absentee-based vote tally tie.

If you guys independently decide it is someone other than Xiahou, the lower vote count means it's easier to switch to anyone.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'd be lying if I said I was sure it was anyone at this point.

POE and hope I guess.

[Cuthillius]

i

really really don't know how to feel about this

[Cuthillius]

i think it comes down to at this point in the game

if any of these players, excepting xiahou let's say, just did a fantastic job of looking like a villager

the game's pretty much theirs

and

it's bad to go against poe, and there's not really enough of a reason to

so

basically just

we're here now and... we'll see what happens

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Xiahou (2): Montmorency, Cuthillius,

Not voting (4): Xiahou, Csargo, Dp101, Pizza,

With 6 players there are 4 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508191200.png

[Montmorency]

Why does Xiahou kill those people and lose the game?

Who did the dead people want to lynch, did we check?

N1

Winston:
If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

Suspicious of Zack in Zack-Dp. Also still suspicious of Choxorn.

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, Winston, DP, Kage, Slaan. POE was GH, Zack, Manasi, Chox, Barto, Csargo,


N2

Kage: Was a leader on GH's case N1, and put Cuth and Zack in his POE. Disagreed with Slaan that Choxorn was a priority lynch. N2, he suggested Cuth as next on the POE. Manasi, Choxorn, and Xiahou were in the default lynch bucket and needed to speak up. Zack/Cuth more likely than Zack/Manasi (1498 going hard after Cuth). Kage made several references to not surviving the night over N2.

N1, he said:


Last point if i die tonight. I think something that should be looked at more carefully would be the Bussing of DP101 and not take anything by face value. Was that bussing dangerous to anyone and what did it achieve?

So it's likely that the Mafia did not have smearing or linking DP101 on their mind, at that time at least.

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, DP, Kage, Slaan, Fred, Monty (and Reinoe and Xiahou on Zack flip). POE was Zack, Manasi, Chox, Barto,

*Zack was still alive N2. Why does he kill, or what does he plan with his partner in killing, Kage instead of Pizza?


N3

Reinoe: N1, had thought Barto and Chox scummy; Winston and Kage town, Zack mafia. Not sure if he suspected Fred, but it may have been borderline. DP as town on D2. N2 wanted to lynch Zack over Choxorn, and didn't feel strongly about Manasi scum. No activity D3. N3 said ought to be in Barto/Choxorn, Choxorn over Barto, though the situation was starting to get shaky. Cuth slightly spewed by Zack. Slaan said, "Oh shit reinoe lock town", and Pizza affirmed.

Pizza: Lock town were same (?). POE was Barto, Choxorn, Csargo (?).


N4

Fred: N1 had suspected Barto, Reinoe, mixed feelings on DP, Zack, GH, and Choxorn. N2 had POE as one of Chox/Manasi, but more likely two of Cuth/Zack/Barto. However, Manasi scummier than Zack individually. Agreed with Kage's suggestion that Cuth needed to be on the agenda next (for D3). Reinoe and Zack not teamed. No activity D3. N3, and debated Slaan keeping him (fred) in his POE. D4, agreed with Pizza's POE below, had residual suspicion of Cuth (?).

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, DP, Choxorn, Fred. POE was Csargo, Slaan, Monty.


N5

Choxorn: Nearly vanished after N1 (when he shaded Winston and Reinoe). After GH lynch, agreed that Manasi-Zack solved the game. With the D4 claim, Choxorn was highest lock townie as a PR with multiple affidavits.

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, Choxorn, DP, with lovers likely mechanically clear. POE was Cuth-Xiahou.



The only NK who wasn't considered lock town at the time was reinoe, who was nearly there - or maybe because he became more-or-less lock with Zack's flip. Targets who were NKed suspected someone who would be lynched the following day (Reino, Fred), or were instrumental in lynching scum (Winston, Kage). Reinoe dying could reflect poorly on Fred. Winston, Reinoe and Fred dying could also be setting up Choxorn. Killing Kage and Fred should be long-term beneficial to Cuth. Pizza spent most of the post-Logic game rooting for Cuth and Xiahou, so they wouldn't have much incentive to kill him (though in general there is incentive to kill a Pizzaguy, and Zack definitely could have used Pizza dead)

In conclusion, you could make a fair case for Cuth choosing these kills - but Xiahou, well, no one was really talking about him so it's hard to formulate what his plan may have been... It's not inconsistent witj Xiahou-scum at least, I don't think.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't look, but that seems to match my general impression.

Xiahou no show means he might no show in final 3 or final 4, so.

[Montmorency]

I didn't look, but that seems to match my general impression.

Xiahou no show means he might no show in final 3 or final 4, so.

Is that good or bad?

I mean, it's bad wrt playing the game, but...

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is that good or bad?

I mean, it's bad wrt playing the game, but...

If he no-shows for final 3 the game can be a coin toss.

That means I can't vote for anyone today.

[Askthepizzaguy]

dp or csargo/monty obviously will show for final whatever if xiahou is town.

That forces me to take no action here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

rip Xiahou, I couldn't scum read you.

[Sooh]

That's a lynch!

Xiahou (2): Montmorency, Cuthillius,

Not voting (4): Xiahou, Csargo, Dp101, Pizza,

With 6 players there are 4 to hammer.

[Sooh]

Our numbers are dwindling, but a few stand steadfast. Today Xiahou was knocked out of the tournament.

He was:
Judit Polgar.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/women/2015/12/04/judit_polgar_2_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bq1N-0BbrGahnullJmqzE3f79t1Pg2VDixv7okYcOWKLU.jpg?imwidth=480

You are the only female player to ever have qualified for a World Championship tournament, and your peak rating of 2735 is still the highest to be achieved by a woman. You have won games against several reigning world champions, including Magnus Carlsen, Anatoly Karpov, Garry Kasparov and Viswanathan Anand among others.

You are a Vanilla Town.

https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1508277600.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Nailed it.

Xiahou, I believed in you even when you were POE. Like, it didn't even make sense.

Never vote Zack d1 as low posty wolf.

[Dp101]

Welp, it’s now Cuth or Csargo from my POV. Sorry for not voting, was really busy this day and completely forgot about this thing.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Welp, it’s now Cuth or Csargo from my POV. Sorry for not voting, was really busy this day and completely forgot about this thing.

Completely forgot?

Checks time.

[Montmorency]

Nailed it.

Xiahou, I believed in you even when you were POE. Like, it didn't even make sense.

Never vote Zack d1 as low posty wolf.


Welp, it’s now Cuth or Csargo from my POV. Sorry for not voting, was really busy this day and completely forgot about this thing.

:mean:

[Askthepizzaguy]

As of this moment, literally everyone's town reads are all gone.

You all have zero town points.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am going full metal tinfoil hat, jacket, and pants.

All metal, all the time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm going to invert my town list and lynch top down.

[Dp101]

Completely forgot?

Checks time.

Ok fine, I remembered 5 minutes before deadline and rapidly tried to catch up but was not current before deadline on account of having to do things IRL.

[Dp101]

As of this moment, literally everyone's town reads are all gone.

You all have zero town points.


I am going full metal tinfoil hat, jacket, and pants.

All metal, all the time.


I'm going to invert my town list and lynch top down.

Please no. I know it’s F4/3 depending on the kill, but this will just lead to throwing the game. Besides, aren’t I already confirmed by my Santa action? Or well, I know that that doesn’t confirm me, but at least I brought it up immediately. Then again, scum might do that too. Idk, there’s a point somewhere in here, overall, I’ll be really annoyed if you end up throwing the game by tinfoiling me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Please no. I know it’s F4/3 depending on the kill, but this will just lead to throwing the game. Besides, aren’t I already confirmed by my Santa action? Or well, I know that that doesn’t confirm me, but at least I brought it up immediately. Then again, scum might do that too. Idk, there’s a point somewhere in here, overall, I’ll be really annoyed if you end up throwing the game by tinfoiling me.

If you're town, I'm dead dude.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The only raisin to keep me alive is because I'm townreading the scum.

[Dp101]

If you're town, I'm dead dude.

Or, you know, I could die.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Or, you know, I could die.

You'd have died before now if you were going to be a NK I think.

[Dp101]

You'd have died before now if you were going to be a NK I think.

Doubt it. I haven’t been solving that much, so there have always been higher priority kills. The kill will be me if mafia thinks the doc is still on you, or on you if the mafia no longer believes there is a doctor.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In any case, I've lost enough sleep over this game.

Shaking my brain like an etch a sketch, going to sleep, and then approaching this fresh before deadline.

Will re-iso everyone and point out reasons why they should be town, and reasons why they can be scum, and I'll convince myself of.... something.

[Csargo]

I missed EoD was at work soz, thought it was between Cuth/Dp101. I didn't think Dp101's was as good as you thought ATPG. I don't have much of an opinion on Cuth, I've pretty much forgot he was in this game.

[Csargo]

I missed EoD was at work soz, thought it was between Cuth/Dp101. I didn't think Dp101's 'day 1 'was as good as you thought ATPG. I don't have much of an opinion on Cuth, I've pretty much forgot he was in this game.

Oops

[Dp101]

I missed EoD was at work soz, thought it was between Cuth/Dp101. I didn't think Dp101's was as good as you thought ATPG. I don't have much of an opinion on Cuth, I've pretty much forgot he was in this game.

Well GL with your tinfoil, tell me when you want to lynch someone who might be mafia. I honestly don’t understand how you can look at my D1 this game and not see me as innocent, but I guess it’ll be revealed soon.

[Montmorency]

What if Mafia holsters and claims doctor?

[Dp101]

What if Mafia holsters and claims doctor?

We don’t believe them because I don’t think there was ever a doctor. Yes it makes strongman look weird, but I’d have expected the protection to save at least someone by now and it has not. I have some theories as to who it could be if we do have one however.

[Montmorency]

Because regardless of who is Mafia, avoiding lynch by holstering tonight and claiming doctor is instant win no matter who gets lynched instead.

[Dp101]

Because regardless of who is Mafia, avoiding lynch by holstering tonight and claiming doctor is instant win no matter who gets lynched instead.

That's assuming we believe the doc claim, which I probably won't at this point unless it's a very specific person. Also stop telling the scum how you think they can win the game.

[Montmorency]

That's assuming we believe the doc claim, which I probably won't at this point unless it's a very specific person. Also stop telling the scum how you think they can win the game.

I'm...what's that term, sports-related or otherwise, for anticipating how someone moves or acts and blocking them?

[Dp101]

I'm...what's that term, sports-related or otherwise, for anticipating how someone moves or acts and blocking them?

No clue. I'm at the point where I'm not going to share my thoughts about who the scum should kill because I'm worried that they can lock the game if they do it right, and I'm not certain that I wouldn't end up figuring out how they could do it and posting it.

[Montmorency]

No clue. I'm at the point where I'm not going to share my thoughts about who the scum should kill because I'm worried that they can lock the game if they do it right, and I'm not certain that I wouldn't end up figuring out how they could do it and posting it.

Definitely don't do that. I just wanted to know the word I'm thinking of!

[Askthepizzaguy]

I fell asleep. Not for very long, obviously.

This game is like a demon consuming my life until we win or lose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, this is what I see, with a clearer head and laying in bed staring at the darkness just a minute ago.

A lot of people solve games or find scums / townies subconsciously, on some instinct level, based on their memory and the stuff that's going on in their mental background.

You know when you walk away from a game, think on it, and your reads change, or you feel like someone you liked you read wrong? Or, when you remember the game, some people didn't make an impression on you?

That's what I'm currently feeling. This is the stuff that's on my mind, without even looking at the game and doing re-reads and shit.

This is what I know about my re-reads: Whoever the scumbag is, I already caught them. I've laid out why any particular person is guilty by now, even dp, so it's not as though the theory on who is scum hasn't rattled around in my brain at least one time.

I've also tinfoiled on some townies hard. As is to be expected after doing nothing but watching townies die for a week.

This is what I remember this game, without looking:

dp101: I remember the cfd thing, and I remember without looking about his disastrous several moments dealing with reinoe. I remember him defending all his town reads passionately.

Montmorency: I remember that his posts always made me feel like they were an attempt to solve. I remember that today, on the critical round, he was the one who sat here and did real, difficult work, actually looking through tinfoil scenarios and entertaining either Cuth or Csargo scum universes.

Csargo: I remember him responding to me at key points of the game; when we pushed GH/Zack, and when we tinfoiled onto him.

Cuth: I remember that all the scums had an opinion on him which was negative, and there was a vote and encouragement to scum read him and the vote was based on a faulty premise. Too faulty for me to buy that GH is that sloppy of a wolf. I remember him being negative about the game ever since day one.

I remember these things and those are the things that stuck with me the most.

So what can I infer from that?

[Askthepizzaguy]

The main inference is that I am finally about to die.

As such, sleep is for the weak, parents with little children, and mafia scumbags.

[Askthepizzaguy]

With regard to the lovers, and having 1 mafioso inside of them.

Mafia - Mafia lovers ruled out mechanically by host confirmed info.

Mafia - survivor lovers ruled out, because there's essentially zero difference between that and the above. The survivor only cares about making it to endgame, and living, and that's the same as the mafia pretty much, and the survivor would be able to talk to someone who has a kill, making them only different from mafia on paper.

Mafia - 3p Lover lovers... like, a nominal "townie" who wins only if they survive the game, is not a townie. I remember the game I was in where I was a neutral lover, and my partner was a townie lover, but the win condition was us both being the last ones standing. Technically, that's not townie or neutral, but Lover alignment. That's just mafia with a special win condition, and I've ruled this out because it's still identical to the mafia - mafia lovers.

So, to put it another way, this is "lovers" being used in a way that is semi-foreign to my experience. I've seen the lovers mechanic appended to literal townies or scumbags in a mash setting, and this might be how lovers are used elsewhere as well. It simply means that they die, nothing more about alignment or win condition.

With those ruled out there are only two scenarios, which is that one of Csargo and Montmorency are literal townies, or both are and they both die.

This means that if they did truly suspect the other, they must lynch there, or they lose the game.

Exploring that idea next.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As to specifically which lover is a wolf, if it's one of the lovers, I always say it is Csargo.

Monty's game this game is the only game I've ever given him even temporarily lock townie status. And if it were him, lynching one lover kills the other lover anyway. The tie thing is something that he can do as town. (shrug) Just part of his odd process.

Monty was here, still processing the game and looking at scenarios. This game is a cakewalk win for him at this point, since csargo has him as town, and the only serious lynchees were xiahou and cuth today. And tomorrow, tinfoils on dp101 are even possible.

The subconscious swiss cheese memory version of Askthepizzaguy agrees. Of the two, Monty is at least a townie.

Csargo having a backchannel that we cannot see with Monty has persuaded Monty that he's town, but they do not have host confirmation that each other are town.

Csargo's actual posts, on the other hand, I've identified a plan. I laid out what it was, and the plan was as simple as distancing from wolves, spreading suspicions all over the place which I said didn't make any sense at the time, and most critically, suggesting after bussing logic and then the logic flip that GH and Zack were both town.

That plan is, as I've mentioned, the plan I was looking for from the fourth scum. Someone executed that plan.

As it stands, it was not dp101 who executed that plan. He had them as townie but immediately burned them both to death the moment they pushed him scummily.

I still agree with that analysis.

Cuth might not have been at the keyboard for most of the game, but Cuth also didn't execute that plan. Did he? I have to check but that's not what Cuth really did, if he was scum. If he's scum, then his buddies all distanced from him as an alternate suggested lynchee over Logic, which can make sense because Logic had a power. Maybe Cuth doesn't. And besides, the ole one scum is hanging, lynch a different one and control the narrative, is a plan I've executed successfully before and gotten scum wins. I've seen others execute such a plan as well.

But Cuth did not execute the plan of suggesting it wasn't Zack or GH. Instead, his plan was to earn no townie points at all this game? Other than fake ones from dead scums distancing from him, doing deliberate anti-spew so Cuth would look good upon their flip. I don't know, that still doesn't seem to be enough. If it were part of an actual "plan", I feel like... why do you need all three dead wolves to agree on it.

If Cuth is guilty, something didn't go according to plan. Hey, I can believe that.

But like with Xiahou:

When I search my swiss cheese memory banks, I do not recall three wolves pushing their partner on day one, all reacting around the same time to the same series of easily attackable posts.

That's the main thing about Cuth's posts, when I remember them, I remember that they were attackable.

And by attackable, I mean the kind of thing that you can instantly generate suspicion based off of, just by pressing down on.

And when I read those posts, I didn't see a dance, with two people tangoing. I didn't see something consensual. What I saw was every other wolf kind of roughly grabbing and pointing at his posts, and he's not even reacting to it. He's making no show of "being caught" or being agitated or pushing back, or selling this theater.

He looks like someone who is walking through a crowd of bullies, and they're all throwing spitballs at him, and he's just used to it and keeps on walking.

I don't want to speculate about psychology or make too deep an inference in an internet guessing game, but more of a meta read: Cuth probably feels like his own town game is attackable, normally. So it is utterly and completely normal for him when a bunch of people read his posts in the most negative light possible. It might get annoying, especially when it can lose an otherwise well fought game, but I don't think his instinct is to react with suspicion.

In any case, he didn't sell the dance.

If it was a plan, someone should have been said after "my what now" when GH voted him "for voting for dp101". Like, there were other dance steps involved in that tango, and he didn't continue any of those steps.

That's what I remember.

So that brings me back to Csargo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

But like with Xiahou:

When I search my swiss cheese memory banks, I do not recall three wolves pushing their partner on day one, all reacting around the same time to the same series of easily attackable posts.

Clarifying

I mean, out of the hundreds and hundreds of games I've played. The closest I get to that is fancy plays on like 2+2 forums, or perhaps a game I wasn't even in on Dragonmount where the wolf team all piled on one partner d1, taking turns calling a series of posts of that person scummy, when not a ton of other people even scum read those posts.

I remember common tactics. Stuff I've seen used to pull the wool over the eyes of towns, successfully, repeatedly.

Stuff like how Xiahou went after Zack on day one, and then GH, and then Csargo all game long, showing no concern about changing the game state, is too passive. It puts all the power into the hands of townies who tinfoil.

Bussing all your partners is not enough. People tinfoil and say "well he must have KNOWN they were guilty".

It's not a winning plan, and everyone knows it instinctively when they're mafia. It's when they're town that they forget such a plan doesn't ever happen. Not often and it doesn't win games when it happens. For this very reason.

Xiahou is dead. All his town credit died with him. And he was ALWAYS dying this game, for that very reason.

It's not enough. Simply pointing at all the scums is not enough. There has to be something more.

Xiahou had no visible process that looked like solving to most people. There was no SELL.

What sold me was that he had no sell. Because that no sell, is townie as :daisy:

Even with my back against the wall, with 2 shots and 2 suspects, I don't put him as one, except reluctantly and by force.

I hated the cases against him, because they all were wrong in my experience.

Wolves don't do that.

Like with that example, I do not remember a wolf team all scum reading and then attacking, voting, and encouraging to vote a partner based on a series of attackable posts on day 1 which almost no one was scum reading but them.

I used to write down post patterns, verbal tics, and confirmed mafia strategies about 6 years ago or so, and put it in a big database. I'd refer to it in my notes, and I never published it. I called it "SkyNet".

Eventually I just committed SkyNet to memory, and the stuff that didn't end up being reliable tells, I ended up forgetting.

But what I remember, is basically every single gambit, plan, or strategy that wolf teams have used over something like 300+ games. I can tell you when I haven't seen something.

I can tell you when I have never seen Logic be passive aggressive as a townie, on instinct, for example. What people do to win games, that much I remember.

I don't remember that kind of bussing very often, except in rare examples on sites with very different processes and meta, making Cuth and GH/Zack/Logic's plan to distance from Cuth or get credit for lynching him over Logic, less likely. And when I've seen it, it has iffy results.

But, I can't rule it out completely.

What I can say is that Csargo's plan, I've seen that plan dozens and dozens of times probably, making it a far more likely plan that was put into action.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Either the lover team dies tonight, or they do not. They can't be the target if Csargo is mafia.

If the mafia is in the lover team, they can shoot me tonight, they could shoot dp, they could even be extra creative and shoot Cuth, just to really mess with minds. But the odds say shoot me or dp.

That's a winning plan. As such, I predict a winning plan will continue to play out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

When Monty was up there in people's towns, especially mine, and it looked unlikely that he might die, he should have become a valid nightkill target.

Csargo, less so. He never really struck anyone as lock townie.

And mafia don't want to do enough to get them lock townie status on day one, even by bussing partners hard, like I've been saying. Then their lack of death afterward has to be explained.

But the dead scums didn't really push hard onto either Monty or Csargo, if I remember correctly.

Doing so would cause a townie and a fellow scumbag to flip.

So they were never shot at, and they were never really pressed by the wolves, in a dangerous way. And they're both still alive, with the kills and the lynches all landing outside of both of them by pure chance?

There is a dark force acting against the will of the town all game.

That dark force is made up of: The gambits/strategies/tactics and spew, deliberate or not, of the dead wolves, and the people they suggested needed to die. Plus, the night kills. Plus, who people suggest need to be lynched.

That dark force surrounds the lover team. It has been protecting them all game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

All of those factors, including who Montmorency suggested to lynch, or to suggest the tie on day one, and later, when he claimed and it saved Csargo from being under suspicion.

Monty is either wittingly or unwittingly a part of that dark force. Even though he rings true as a townie to me, his actions help direct the lynch away from Csargo. Even with the best of intentions.

There was no dark force protecting Xiahou, none that protected Cuth. Both were POE and all the kills and lynches that happened, and the arguments that happened ever since Zack died, have all been subtly pushing it so that eventually, both Xiahou and Cuth would end up dead.

That is the darkness that is pushing against the light of the town.

And you extinguished Xiahou's candle, despite all my efforts. I had two candles. Now I have one. Tomorrow, I will have none.

But I promise you that the dark side surrounds Csargo and Monty. And Monty is a townie.

Again, Monty.

You have the power to save the town you love. You must choose.