Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza, don't go full volcano, we have 45 hours and I'm taking this slow.

I got one vote and it's not going anywhere.

We have stuff to talk about today, so no quick hammer is needed.

We can afford to discuss who was deep in our town who might not belong there, and this is the only time several of us will have to do so. If we just plunge forward in the POE, which is made up of people I had at least mild town reads on at some point, we're going for the low hanging fruit.

If it is in the low hanging fruit, fine. But if it's not, then we're not fine.

[Montmorency]

This is the first game I actually did this fake claming stuff... or at least tried to do it sorta convincingly. I mean did fakeclaim as mafia on my homeboard at times when it came around Lylo etc etc but not like this, it's an interesting strategy I think and I was bored so figured why not.

Wait, so where is this fake-softing in the thread?

And Pizza hates the thought of fake-claiming mafia, right?


I don't think I had them in my slight scum pile, I had them at neutral iirc. Slight scum was Monty and csargo if I'm not mistaken at the time.

Regarding Logic.. well yea, from my perspective your push was purely a meta read which I can't really agree with.. I mean how, I don't have the meta. I thought logic was fairly alright-ish... except for his townread on me which I just ignored at first for a random rvs read and was more on Csargo at the time. Only when I reread after your push did I realise his read was meant to be seriously and that it made no sense from scum.

Well, you said in your first big reads post:


Didnt start solving really so far, a slight post on Kagemusha, a townread on me (which makes him scum ;))... I expect more!


Pizza’s gun was also a gift, so that was already confirmed.

I mean, it's evidence that Pizza wasn't lying one way or another.

[Montmorency]

I got one vote and it's not going anywhere.

We have stuff to talk about today, so no quick hammer is needed.

We can afford to discuss who was deep in our town who might not belong there, and this is the only time several of us will have to do so. If we just plunge forward in the POE, which is made up of people I had at least mild town reads on at some point, we're going for the low hanging fruit.

If it is in the low hanging fruit, fine. But if it's not, then we're not fine.

I'm complaining about the pace of discussion in the moment. I'm just being a baby.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I did hardclaim VT though? I mean it's not helping me for sure... I was actually wondering of claiming a role and maybe getting NK'd for it but that didnt work so far with my vig fake claim and I think it would've been pretty obvious that it was fake... not to mention the risk of the real joat_giver whatever outing himself after seeing my fakeclaim and thinking 'aha, got the last scum here!'. What you saw there was my live thought process... should I fake claim? nah.

To be fair though, that is entirely NAI ^^

I get you. But in case others don't get you or me, to be completely clear to the observer:

You bluffed that you were about to claim the santa role, it was phrased hypothetically if you had such a role was I really making you claim it here, and I said with the "absolutely" post to make it not hypothetical.

That's what I mean about the hard claim. I know you hard claimed VT after.

My thought is that is because you couldn't hard claim anything else unless town had a third power role versus two flipped vanilla scums. It's possible but I'd consider town too stacked in such a game. The other possibility is that you were scum and wanted me to back off, so you improvised.

You're either vanilla town or scum. We agree on that much.

[Slaan]

0. Slaan recently is affirming the principle that we shouldn't even be seeing multi-scum sussing or distancing in D1 given the Logic threat. My own position is that we should expect controlled distancing, especially after halfway into D1. So keep in mind that this is a bit less than the first half of D1.

True. As long as the Logic wagon wasnt set in stone (and I really feel it wasnt for the first half.. even first 2/3 of D1) and GH/Zack tried hard to get ppl off him and onto others (especially bart imo) I don't think they were distancing with their actual pushes. There might've been low key distancing going on but nothing they really pushed imo. Again, I don't think defending one scum partner thats under alot of pressure and offering the last partner up as an alternative is a thing.


1. In opening posts Slaan talks about only playing with GH and Fred out of this group, some chance of reading. Cuth and Manasi were in mashes, but not enough familiarity to read with confidence. Slaan now has Cuth and Fred in upper half of POE. If you're going by the long-term significance route.

Cuth and Fred are in my PoE for PoE reasons, not because I think them particularly scummy. Only one I find scummy currently is Chox.


2. Slaan almost entirely banters for 16 posts, mostly w/ Zack and Winston, then Logic arrives at the tail end to begin his first round, including getting sussed by Pizza. GH welcome-votes Slaan, and Logic expresses relief that GH didn't do that when it was Logic's first ORG game.

That's what I've learnred to do at the start of the game, just talk a bit to get some sort of reads on ppl... not even AI reads but just how they play, how active they are, how open etc. Nothing that could ever be really put in words or actual gamey reads but to get a feel about ppl... Funny thing though about the GH voting me to welcome me: I noticed he didnt do that to renioe. I thought a bit that it might indicate reinoe scum to not treat her the same way (...) but now it looks kinda the opposite lol :D


3. Kage votes Slaan as a joke and Manasi thinks Slaan is uncomfortable and scummy. Zack soft-challenges her and Kage. Logic says Kage's vote on Slaan is lazy and begins the voting and other interactions between the two. Logic says Slaan is not scum, Kage asks why, etc.

I still don't know why Manasi thought I was uncomfortable.. I asked her but she didnt reply :(.


7. Kage feels no scumminess from Slaan now but wonders why Logic doesn't want to become involved in thread. Slaan counters that Logic is involved in thread, and confident that he can become town for Kage ("easy hurdle").

I don't recall that? I remember saying that Kage wanted the reason why Logic townread me which he did provide (which along the line made me scumread Logic) and Kage apparently didnt see.


8. Slaan reads Zack true town after wallposts and other friendly interactions. GH says Slaan and Fred are down a tier but he can't really explain it; Zack disagrees only on Slaan.

Yep, on top of his activity in the thread he had a good post I could nod along with on D1 is enough for me to put ppl in my townpile. Well my townpile is more often than not 'ppl I'd least want to lynch' ... it also gave me pause yesterday and I didnt think that Zack would flip scum.. oh well :)

Rest isnt something I can comment on... Just figured I add my thoughts/context.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I still think there is a doctor, a full doctor, because a strongman killer makes no sense against a gift giver / inventor role that will likely give out 1 doctor protection.

It's possible the strongman is just to counter the inventor's doc gift, but that makes such a role for town really really weak.

A one shot doctor is super weak anyway. It's highly unlikely to make any impact on a game.

Strongman only makes sense to counter a full doc.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I still don't know why Manasi thought I was uncomfortable.. I asked her but she didnt reply

Well if she was right, she's gonna laugh and laugh at me in post. And I agree.

[Slaan]

Wait, so where is this fake-softing in the thread?

And Pizza hates the thought of fake-claiming mafia, right?

I said two or three times smth like 'If I had a vig I might vig here' or smth


Well, you said in your first big reads post:

Uhm yea? I saw his townread but didnt think much of it at the time, thought it was rvs random read or smth. After I read the thread for the first time and Zack said smth like 'I like to mafia read ppl that townread me as this makes me towny' which I think I referenced in my big read list... which I said I also do at times. Then there was this random townread from Logic on me which just seemed random at the time, so I made a funny (and ppl say I dont have fun) comment regarding it referencing Zack's earlier statement about reading early town reads as mafia and moved on not minding it any more than that. My mind was more on Zacks comment on those issues than it was on the townread of Logic himself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wait, so where is this fake-softing in the thread?

And Pizza hates the thought of fake-claiming mafia, right?

I can show you.

I distinctly remember it happening. So I put Slaan in my "maybe he's got a vig shot, and me claiming to have one will keep him alive" plans.

I also put him in the gift-giver possibility slot after I got the gun.

He was very interested in my claims all game, so either he was preparing to counter me, kill me, or he was a town power role.

Hard claim Vanilla townie is very unexpected after that.

So give me a second. I'll locate it.

[Slaan]

I get you. But in case others don't get you or me, to be completely clear to the observer:

You bluffed that you were about to claim the santa role, it was phrased hypothetically if you had such a role was I really making you claim it here, and I said with the "absolutely" post to make it not hypothetical.

That's what I mean about the hard claim. I know you hard claimed VT after.

My thought is that is because you couldn't hard claim anything else unless town had a third power role versus two flipped vanilla scums. It's possible but I'd consider town too stacked in such a game. The other possibility is that you were scum and wanted me to back off, so you improvised.

Yea basically. I would've loved to fakeclaim smth and trying to get myself NK'd but the risk seemed too great


You're either vanilla town or scum. We agree on that much.

Nope, I'm never scum thisi game :). I really don't think I'd start shading GH D1 after the hammer is dropping on Logic. Feel free to check the orchestrated Chaos game, I tried to keep my buddies around as long as I saw a chance for them to get in the game.. once I realised that's not gonna happen I bussed them. In context of this game I'd bus Logic hard, but never GH.

[Montmorency]

I still think there is a doctor, a full doctor, because a strongman killer makes no sense against a gift giver / inventor role that will likely give out 1 doctor protection.

It's possible the strongman is just to counter the inventor's doc gift, but that makes such a role for town really really weak.

A one shot doctor is super weak anyway. It's highly unlikely to make any impact on a game.

Strongman only makes sense to counter a full doc.

Given that the JOAT also gave out a vig, maybe we're looking at a bulletproof.


Maybe that was just my own impression... considering I did as you've said since N1 basically... just went down the PoE and didnt care much outside that ^^. Well I didnt even vote on D2 iirc, I wanted GH to post something before he is hammered but that never happened...



I didnt do the math when I made my post so chances are this doesnt work out as I've written down. Then again I probably wouldnt mind Bart in F3? It's a tough one between Monty and Bart tbh, Monty is more towny from WIM/solving and his going hard after Zack D1 and not minding the Logic wagon. Bart on the other hand I think is spewed town from the way Zack/GH acted...

I just think it so unlikely that Zack and GH are defending scum!Logic as strong as they were and proposing scum!Bart as an alternative wagon. I mean it's not impossible, nothing is yada yada... but I don't see it happening. If they wanted to bus a partner they couldve just jumped on the Logic wagon early... At some point the Logic issue did become a Point of no return for them imo (couldnt have made a 180° ) but I think it was still very much possible when they went after Barto? At least that's the impression I got, at the time there was 'only' pizza that pushed him hard, dp+ (someone, don't remember.. kage prolly) that sheeped pizza and me on the wagon... which is why GH and Zack tried so hard to save Logic int he first place - it was still very much possible. But then whyyy go after their last scumbuddy? Just seems so unlikely in my book

But if Bart is cleared from a brief timeframe in mid-day, then why isn't Choxorn even more spewed clear?

I made the case of controlled distancing as a strategy. Barto was never really under threat for more than 5 minutes. OTOH, if he (or Chox) were under threat

I think in the end one of Chox/Bart has to be scum, and the other is like camouflage. (This Slaan YOLO needs very serious consideration, since if it's wrong then it's very very wrong)


I said two or three times smth like 'If I had a vig I might vig here' or smth



Uhm yea? I saw his townread but didnt think much of it at the time, thought it was rvs random read or smth. After I read the thread for the first time and Zack said smth like 'I like to mafia read ppl that townread me as this makes me towny' which I think I referenced in my big read list... which I said I also do at times. Then there was this random townread from Logic on me which just seemed random at the time, so I made a funny (and ppl say I dont have fun) comment regarding it referencing Zack's earlier statement about reading early town reads as mafia and moved on not minding it any more than that. My mind was more on Zacks comment on those issues than it was on the townread of Logic himself.

OK, so like Pizza.

Zack said to Winston (off the top of my head) that he is capable of challenging people's town reads of him as mafia because WIFOM.

[Slaan]

I can show you.

I distinctly remember it happening. So I put Slaan in my "maybe he's got a vig shot, and me claiming to have one will keep him alive" plans.

I also put him in the gift-giver possibility slot after I got the gun.

He was very interested in my claims all game, so either he was preparing to counter me, kill me, or he was a town power role.

Hard claim Vanilla townie is very unexpected after that.

So give me a second. I'll locate it.

lol. While I also read your vig claim (and thought it was bs ^^) I never imagined you fake claiming it to protect me ^^. That's ridiculous, you fake claim covered the fake claimer... and neither of us died during the night... Which.. wat. I mean I guess pizza not dying makes sense, considering he was the most likely doc target and all but then why winston of me? From the way this discussion went only pizza realised my claim and I think most saw it as the fake it was? Or they saw that my most likely vig targets was shitty N1 and figured they look for the doc? Guess that makes some sense

[Montmorency]

OTOH, if he (or Chox) were under threat

... then as part of the radical diversion-onto-scum strategy Logic would be saved for a while and Zack and GH would get cred for lynching scum.

[Slaan]

But if Bart is cleared from a brief timeframe in mid-day, then why isn't Choxorn even more spewed clear?

I made the case of controlled distancing as a strategy. Barto was never really under threat for more than 5 minutes. OTOH, if he (or Chox) were under threat

From the way I read the thread it was rather likely that the Bart wagon could gain lots of steam... but again I havent finished rereading, I'm still at ~50% at page 30. So I'm gonig to stop making hard reads until I'm done with that.. just from memory Bart seemed like a very valid wagon midday while Chox was just a desperate attempt towards the end but maybe my memory of this is wrong... let me reread tomorrow and I'll get back to you. On this note

Unvote: Chox

[Slaan]

Also w/ that I'm out of the thread, it's 3am by now so time for some z's :)

[Fredwood]

I just think it so unlikely that Zack and GH are defending scum!Logic as strong as they were and proposing scum!Bart as an alternative wagon. I mean it's not impossible, nothing is yada yada... but I don't see it happening. If they wanted to bus a partner they couldve just jumped on the Logic wagon early... At some point the Logic issue did become a Point of no return for them imo (couldnt have made a 180° ) but I think it was still very much possible when they went after Barto? At least that's the impression I got, at the time there was 'only' pizza that pushed him hard, dp+ (someone, don't remember.. kage prolly) that sheeped pizza and me on the wagon... which is why GH and Zack tried so hard to save Logic int he first place - it was still very much possible. But then whyyy go after their last scumbuddy? Just seems so unlikely in my book

So why is Chox in your POE? His spew case is just as valid as Barts, in my mind it's better then Bart's. It isn't because he's acting scummier, the entirety of peoples read on Chox is because of what people have said or done to him this game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

4. Pizza: ... I hope he stops with the rpg stuff or I'd consider vigging him if I had access to a vig.

This looks more like directing the vig than a claim or crumb, but it could be a crumb.


Oh yea I'm not saying that barto is playing well or anything and was I a vig I'd maybe just vig this night... but you had a real read on Zack iirc and change it to someone that just didnt give a crap so far? I mean it's not wolfy per se... just not something I'd do ^^

Also looks like directing the vig to Barto, but now that it's repeated it feels crumb-y.

Much later, and referring to Zack:


He's deep wolfing extremely well right now, more than he's towning, imo. If I had a vig shot I'd shoot him tonight since he's never gonna be lynched because only me and Monty can even see it.

I'm not moving and I cannot just sit here for the next 45 minutes (now 30), I'm too deeply invested in this lynch. If the flip is what I think it is, I need all of night phase to really give it my best and final analysis before end of night, for obvious reasons, and to make sure any shot I may or may not have lands correctly. (snip)

After those two posts, Slaan goes:

I'm not going to comment on pizzas last post >_<


I'm also really wondering which roles there will be in this game in the end. Doc is clear on our side... but I imagine a vig would've vigged Chox or someone last night. Maybe Winston was vigged from mafia and their NK on pizza failed? What other roles could there be in a game such as this? (my homeboard only uses the same boring roles over and over and they don't seem likely)... don't speculate on this, don't think it helps town... just things I wonder.

Strange post. Why assume mafia have a NK and a vig, especially if you've been hinting you are a vig?

...

Are you an odd night vigilante, Slaan?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Let me check. He basically hinted that he would have shot choxorn on night 1.

Even if dp101 didn't protect me, my guess is the full doctor would have unless they also changed.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why would choxorn be protected on night one though. That doesn't make any sense.

Chox shouldn't be the n1 doc target. And the first inventor gift would have been the gun, delivered too late to affect N1.

Unless choxorn is a bulletproof, the only thing that makes sense is that Slaan is hinting that he shot choxorn, when he wasn't protected, and was actually shooting elsewhere.

Which you don't lie about if you're town.

[Fredwood]

I got ninja'd while watching the baseball game...which comes down to the crux of the issue with Bart being final 3

If Bart is Town and makes it to final 3, town doesn't win. The thing that keeps making me go back and forth is that putting Bart that high makes no sense as either alignment, It's just an odd stance to take on him. Discounting half the spew and holding up the other spew as relevant....all I ask is for consistency in the spew, maybe it all boils down to only being half through your re-read, but still even when re-checking things I remember the context of the thread at the time. Especially if Zack is playing for a Bart before Zack flip.

[Slaan]

*checks reddit* *checks back here* oh look more questions :D


So why is Chox in your POE? His spew case is just as valid as Barts, in my mind it's better then Bart's. It isn't because he's acting scummier, the entirety of peoples read on Chox is because of what people have said or done to him this game.

Havent gotten to Chox yet and went on him off my memory. I recall his push unlikely to succeed and thus being a good bus target after failing to save Logic for GH/Zack. I also think his posts were scummy on top of that, so that might cloud my judgement... I won't comment on that further till I have 100% reread this thread.



This looks more like directing the vig than a claim or crumb, but it could be a crumb.

Also looks like directing the vig to Barto, but now that it's repeated it feels crumb-y.

Much later, and referring to Zack:

After those two posts, Slaan goes:

Strange post. Why assume mafia have a NK and a vig, especially if you've been hinting you are a vig?

...

Are you an odd night vigilante, Slaan?

I'm not anything but VT my friend. And yes ofc I was keeping the facade of my vig claim alive and I actually thought you were the vig and kinda annoyed with the game or w/e to make those open claims... so that was my natural reaction. It didnt occur to me that you could be fake claiming as well as... well that is rather wonky from my already fake claimed perspective... so I wanted to - as low key as possible - insert that I made a similar claim earlier.

Later on I just let me thoughts flow without much strategy behind them, the vig claming wasnt really something I actively pursued, just mentioned it when it seemed fitting and then did my own thing.. I don't think I had it on my mind when I made this last post you quoted. This post came iirc from my believe that you are the vig so I figured if you are a vig and we have a doc (strongman indicates as much) then mafia also most likely has a vig so this comment was born. I'm still not really familiar with the roles you guys use as my homeforum has a certain set im meta with fixed roles that just get play all the time (one time doc that gets told the NK each night, 2x oneshot vig, cop) so I felt/feel like in dark waters when it comes to closed games such as this....

I realised how stupid this line of inquiry was when I made the post, see the last sentence... but as town I always figure to just say what I think so ppl can follow my process better and it should help them read me town... I got nothing to hide and all that. If this gets me mislynched here I might have to reconsider this policy ^^

Now I'm really off though, bb :)

[Montmorency]

Why would choxorn be protected on night one though. That doesn't make any sense.

Chox shouldn't be the n1 doc target. And the first inventor gift would have been the gun, delivered too late to affect N1.

Unless choxorn is a bulletproof, the only thing that makes sense is that Slaan is hinting that he shot choxorn, when he wasn't protected, and was actually shooting elsewhere.

Which you don't lie about if you're town.

OK, a little hard to follow the logic for Slaan being scum behind these soft-claims, but it sounds like you're drawing on your experience claiming a mafia vig as a town vig, or using it as a way to tease claims from another townie (both?). If so, maybe we should be reading Slaan independently of these considerations because at some point they probably feed more into confirmation bias than offer new information.


So I was like, he can possibly be scum still somehow, therefore he is scum.

Confirmation Bias.

We can nitpick the early game, but I think most people liked his later D1, so if Slaan is scum then all that substance ought to fall apart on closer examination.


Also, how Slaan is representing the wagonomics before EOD, and how distancing vs. bussing applies, and if it reflects on Slaan's analyses at the time.

Much later tonight.

[Slaan]

Why would choxorn be protected on night one though. That doesn't make any sense.

Chox shouldn't be the n1 doc target. And the first inventor gift would have been the gun, delivered too late to affect N1.

Unless choxorn is a bulletproof, the only thing that makes sense is that Slaan is hinting that he shot choxorn, when he wasn't protected, and was actually shooting elsewhere.

Which you don't lie about if you're town.

What? I just faked the entire thing, I never had any shots

[Slaan]

I got ninja'd while watching the baseball game...which comes down to the crux of the issue with Bart being final 3

If Bart is Town and makes it to final 3, town doesn't win. The thing that keeps making me go back and forth is that putting Bart that high makes no sense as either alignment, It's just an odd stance to take on him. Discounting half the spew and holding up the other spew as relevant....all I ask is for consistency in the spew, maybe it all boils down to only being half through your re-read, but still even when re-checking things I remember the context of the thread at the time. Especially if Zack is playing for a Bart before Zack flip.

Idk what else to tell you, that's where I arrived after my first 30 pages.

[Slaan]

Also: Can someone explain to me the difference between 'bussing' and 'distancing'? I just assumed it's the same thing... you know, going after a buddy. I bussing only with intention to actually kill said partner and distancing is not or is there another aspect to it?

Anyway, now really, for the third and final time /out

Slaan has left the building \o/

[Askthepizzaguy]

I got it.

He does have a vig power and the doc has been successful.

There's no way he as vanilla townie claims that:


I'm also really wondering which roles there will be in this game in the end. Doc is clear on our side... but I imagine a vig would've vigged Chox or someone last night. Maybe Winston was vigged from mafia and their NK on pizza failed? What other roles could there be in a game such as this? (my homeboard only uses the same boring roles over and over and they don't seem likely)... don't speculate on this, don't think it helps town... just things I wonder.

This is it, this is the damning evidence.

Nooooooo way in hell does he suggest this many kills are in play unless he's eventually going to claim town vigilante.

But EVEN if he was going to claim town vigilante, he's got to explain eventual scummy kills. So in lie-world, there's also a scum vig.

There's no way to account for all the missing kills at this point, so that plan has to be abandoned.

But he's claiming in this post there are 3 kills in play, two more than the known mafia nightkill, and he never had the joat's vig shot, because I did.

There wouldn't be a town vigilante in this game unless the mafia had one. And he could always claim to be a limited vig.

Since he knew that the town had a doctor, he could easily account for missing kills.

But from a vanilla townie standpoint, he should never be claiming a Third Kill.

That's it. That's the proof in your own words, Slaan.

You were gonna claim a limited vig and frame choxorn with it. But you had to back off because that's too many kills in play that we haven't seen yet.

[Fredwood]

Idk what else to tell you, that's where I arrived after my first 30 pages.

I'm just sort of talking out loud to myself hoping someone smarter tells me I'm dumb one way or the other. I read EOD1 at least twice but I probably have a harder time divorcing my memory of the context of the thread because I was observing it all passively but was actively there for the actual "bart" push....I need to stop self-arguing points for your defense damnit.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vanilla townie fake claiming having a shot claims there could be a missing kill that night, but not two missing kills.

You had to actually be a vigilante to even CLAIM there was three kills.

When you can no longer claim town vigilante, you are sweeping this one under the rug and going with vanilla townie.

None of your actual shots, if any were successful, were on actual suspects.

Since you are a vigilante and claimed not to be, you're mafia, Slaan.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The jig is really up now. No vanilla townie claims there were three kills that night. Never happening.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Fredwood, Monty, check my logic.

I've got him. There's literally no way to explain that.

[Fredwood]

Also: Can someone explain to me the difference between 'bussing' and 'distancing'? I just assumed it's the same thing... you know, going after a buddy. I bussing only with intention to actually kill said partner and distancing is not or is there another aspect to it?

Anyway, now really, for the third and final time /out

Slaan has left the building \o/

Bussing is pushing your teammate with the intention of getting him killed. Distancing is pushing your teammate when death is not immediately on the line but would look good if either of you would flip before the other.

[Montmorency]

I got it.

He does have a vig power and the doc has been successful.

There's no way he as vanilla townie claims that:



This is it, this is the damning evidence.

Nooooooo way in hell does he suggest this many kills are in play unless he's eventually going to claim town vigilante.

But EVEN if he was going to claim town vigilante, he's got to explain eventual scummy kills. So in lie-world, there's also a scum vig.

There's no way to account for all the missing kills at this point, so that plan has to be abandoned.

But he's claiming in this post there are 3 kills in play, two more than the known mafia nightkill, and he never had the joat's vig shot, because I did.

There wouldn't be a town vigilante in this game unless the mafia had one. And he could always claim to be a limited vig.

Since he knew that the town had a doctor, he could easily account for missing kills.

But from a vanilla townie standpoint, he should never be claiming a Third Kill.

That's it. That's the proof in your own words, Slaan.

You were gonna claim a limited vig and frame choxorn with it. But you had to back off because that's too many kills in play that we haven't seen yet.

But why does he need to frame Choxorn if he's in the POE? How does that happen?

If he doesn't know there's a Santa role then he can't expect there ever to be an opportunity to claim anything.


Vanilla townie fake claiming having a shot claims there could be a missing kill that night, but not two missing kills.

You had to actually be a vigilante to even CLAIM there was three kills.

When you can no longer claim town vigilante, you are sweeping this one under the rug and going with vanilla townie.

None of your actual shots, if any were successful, were on actual suspects.

Since you are a vigilante and claimed not to be, you're mafia, Slaan.

Aha, so you're claiming that he actually hit a protection tonight. But - we don't know that without a doctor claim?

And if a doctor doesn't claim, then we shouldn't lynch because a town doctor should absolutely claim if it clear a townie and saves them from lynch?

That makes it sound like either way he's town, but no - it means hinging so much on this assumption doesn't work.

[Fredwood]

Fredwood, Monty, check my logic.

I've got him. There's literally no way to explain that.

It looks bad?, I mean I'm already waffling... I'll have to think some more just in case I'm just being blinded by your brilliance and fancy pants. (In other words I feel that might be a little bit over my head wrt to PR hunting providing scummy kill cover, where I come from everyone is a Power Role)

[Dp101]

The jig is really up now. No vanilla townie claims there were three kills that night. Never happening.

So wait, are you saying we had an additional doctor as well as the gifter? Because that's the only way this past night's results make sense from my perspective, and it seems like we have a few too many roles in that situation (or at least, it feels weird to me for there to be 2 protective roles of the same alignment).

[Montmorency]

Wait, DP claimed, OK.

Well, that's consistent, but... I need to think.

[Fredwood]

I think Pizza is playing 20 moves ahead of us already and I'm racing to catch up.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So wait, are you saying we had an additional doctor as well as the gifter? Because that's the only way this past night's results make sense from my perspective, and it seems like we have a few too many roles in that situation (or at least, it feels weird to me for there to be 2 protective roles of the same alignment).

Yes, there is a full doc!

Shit I need to be able to explain this.

Ok, deep breath. There are two ways of explaining Slaan's posts. Check this logic.

[Dp101]

Idk, maybe it makes sense for there to have to be a doctor for a one-shot strongman to come into play, because gifts being one shot only (and presumably non-repeatable) makes it so unlikely that strongman would actually make a difference that it would be basically pointless if gifts were the only means of doccing someone.

[Dp101]

Yes, there is a full doc!

Shit I need to be able to explain this.

Ok, deep breath. There are two ways of explaining Slaan's posts. Check this logic.

Oh no, I get what you mean about predicting 3 kills and 2 prevented being scummy in this way, I was just saying that last night's results mean that we 100% have to have a full doc and I was not completely certain of that.

[Montmorency]

Idk, maybe it makes sense for there to have to be a doctor for a one-shot strongman to come into play, because gifts being one shot only (and presumably non-repeatable) makes it so unlikely that strongman would actually make a difference that it would be basically pointless if gifts were the only means of doccing someone.


Idk, maybe it makes sense for there to have to be a doctor for a one-shot strongman to come into play, because gifts being one shot only (and presumably non-repeatable) makes it so unlikely that strongman would actually make a difference that it would be basically pointless if gifts were the only means of doccing someone.

Bulletproof? Crimson snow in XCOM was like the only BP, and Mafia had to hit him twice, so it works. Also, all their kills were strongman (because of Winston), but that was a special balance characteristic...

If it's 1X Strongman and a full doctor, then it's like there's not much point to having extra 1X protection.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Universe 1: Pizza is wrong and Slaan is a vanilla townie.

He had been hinting on d1 that he was gonna shoot choxorn or pizza. Later, after the night phase, he claims if he was a town vig he would have shot choxorn last night, which then means that choxorn was protected somehow.

He still has choxorn as scummy, but he never claims and says that he shot choxorn and that choxorn survived. The doc also wouldn't be protecting there, so we know since this is vanilla townie world, he never shot choxorn. That explains the lack of choxorn dying.

But, we also have Slaan claiming the mafia have a vigilante shot on Winston and a full mafia kill on Pizza in that same post.

So, at the time of that post, Slaan the vanilla townie was claiming there were 3 shots in play, not 2. A really odd thing to ever claim, when only 1 kill happened that night.


Universe 2: Slaan is a Sith Lord

He had been planning to claim a limited town vig at one point, and was crumbing who he supposedly shot.

He wasn't claiming, but if it came down to it, he could claim that he crumbed shooting choxorn, and then it would be weird why choxorn survived. Maybe he's a mafia scumbag with a bulletproof, for example.

He could counterclaim any townie who claimed vigilante too, with this plan.

Ok.

But, since he's scum and knows scum team has a vig (which is him, it can only be him now) he claims there were 3 kills, only 2 successful.

One of which was on a protected target, which is why we didn't see it.

Only the scum vigilante or a town vigilante should know there were three kills last night, or even think to claim such a thing.

Since he has disavowed being a town vigilante (as well he should, he hasn't shot anyone for real since choxorn wouldn't have been protected n1)

He must be town vanilla or scum vigilante.

If he's town vanilla, why does he claim there were three kills, only 1 of which was visible?

This was an aborted fake claim attempt while there were still scumbags alive that he could trade himself away for to help them survive a round.

But no, he can't do that anymore, so he has to abandon the plan.

That's the story. He's not vanilla townie and he's not a town vig. His own words hang him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Oh no, I get what you mean about predicting 3 kills and 2 prevented being scummy in this way, I was just saying that last night's results mean that we 100% have to have a full doc and I was not completely certain of that.
We do, otherwise he wouldn't have blundered and guessed/claimed 3 kills.

Our town doctor was successful on night one!

[Fredwood]

huh...

what does crumbling mean?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why would the mafia shoot both Pizza and Winston on night one?

Because the doc can only cover one of us!

[Askthepizzaguy]

huh...

what does crumbling mean?

If I had a vig shot, I would have shot choxorn last night.

If I got a night zero cop scan on a vanilla townie, it was probably on dp101, lock town.

Not claims. Just posts that mean if you do eventually claim later, you can say you left a crumb.

If you flip, people go back and read your posts to see what you did.

Town power roles, vanillas, and scums often crumb. It's leaving the info without hard claiming it.

Think of it as a super duper soft claim you can easily retract.

[Montmorency]

Universe 1: Pizza is wrong and Slaan is a vanilla townie.

He had been hinting on d1 that he was gonna shoot choxorn or pizza. Later, after the night phase, he claims if he was a town vig he would have shot choxorn last night, which then means that choxorn was protected somehow.

He still has choxorn as scummy, but he never claims and says that he shot choxorn and that choxorn survived. The doc also wouldn't be protecting there, so we know since this is vanilla townie world, he never shot choxorn. That explains the lack of choxorn dying.

But, we also have Slaan claiming the mafia have a vigilante shot on Winston and a full mafia kill on Pizza in that same post.

So, at the time of that post, Slaan the vanilla townie was claiming there were 3 shots in play, not 2. A really odd thing to ever claim, when only 1 kill happened that night.

And he's not claiming, just speculating?


Universe 1: Pizza is wrong and Slaan is a vanilla townie.

He had been hinting on d1 that he was gonna shoot choxorn or pizza. Later, after the night phase, he claims if he was a town vig he would have shot choxorn last night, which then means that choxorn was protected somehow.

He still has choxorn as scummy, but he never claims and says that he shot choxorn and that choxorn survived. The doc also wouldn't be protecting there, so we know since this is vanilla townie world, he never shot choxorn. That explains the lack of choxorn dying.

But, we also have Slaan claiming the mafia have a vigilante shot on Winston and a full mafia kill on Pizza in that same post.

So, at the time of that post, Slaan the vanilla townie was claiming there were 3 shots in play, not 2. A really odd thing to ever claim, when only 1 kill happened that night.


Why would a solo scum want to claim vig? He has to die soon after.


But, since he's scum and knows scum team has a vig (which is him, it can only be him now) he claims there were 3 kills, only 2 successful.

One of which was on a protected target, which is why we didn't see it.

One successful, since you're alive.


If he's town vanilla, why does he claim there were three kills, only 1 of which was visible?

Why not, if he's town? I'm certain townies have speculated on there being 3 kills before.


This was an aborted fake claim attempt while there were still scumbags alive that he could trade himself away for to help them survive a round.


Why would "lock town" Slaan trade himself to keep Zack and/or GH alive for another day?

?????????????????????????

[Askthepizzaguy]

If the full town doctor was protecting me on night one, they stopped that kill.

That's why Slaan suggested that there was a kill on both me and winston on night one.

He has perfect information syndrome. He outed himself as the scum vig in that post.

He went too far in claiming both pizza and winston were shot night one.

No vanilla townie should ever have said that.

He can only know that if he's scum or if he's a town vigilante. And he hard claimed not being one.

That's GG

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why would a solo scum want to claim vig? He has to die soon after.

He was not solo at the time. He had teammates, or did we kill them so fast you forgot? :P

The answer to your question is, the same reason they claim cop sometimes. To survive a lynch (even if only one lynch) and then use the doctor as an excuse as to why they still live.

But this game don't have a cop. So he wasn't gonna crumb cop, right. So he crumbed vig instead, anticipating the game had one.

They have only very limited use out of claiming doctor. Doctors always have to die. If he can claim vig at the critical moment, he can draw a lynch away from someone and onto someone else. Particularly, the town vigilante, if they suspect the game has one.


Why not, if he's town? I'm certain townies have speculated on there being 3 kills before.

With one death? I don't think so.


Why would "lock town" Slaan trade himself to keep Zack and/or GH alive for another day?

They were not lock scum at the time. He was still arguing until Zack flipped that Zack was town, for example. Many people still had skeptical face.

All of those plans got shot to hell when Zack did.

[Montmorency]

Someone other than Pizza explain why Slaan was claiming D2 rather than idly speculating, why the specific fact of suggesting a town vig and a mafia vig on top of mafia NK is a tell given the events of D2, N2, D3, N3, and how any variation of this could have been a plausible strategy following the events of D1.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I get it pizza. And I agree (with some minor caveats)... but we shouldnt think us victorious just yet. Suprising things always happen and I wouldnt be super suprised if there is in the end only one wolf under GH/manasi/chox... just because I've very very rarely solved the game after D1 in my 7 years of playing (and arguably when it worked it was mostly lucky guessing ^^). I like rein as town for probably all the wrong reason and would have to check her out again at some point, same with most others. Thing is the ISO function here is kinda annoying and makes me not want to do it...

It's weird, I'm kinda trapped in a game here that's between my homesite and MU. Few good tools to use (same as my homsite) but activity similiar to MU which makes rereading stuff annoying. Also I see a clear path to be taken rn which gives me even less motivation to go and check ppl out again.

I'm also really wondering which roles there will be in this game in the end. Doc is clear on our side... but I imagine a vig would've vigged Chox or someone last night. Maybe Winston was vigged from mafia and their NK on pizza failed? What other roles could there be in a game such as this? (my homeboard only uses the same boring roles over and over and they don't seem likely)... don't speculate on this, don't think it helps town... just things I wonder.

Would Sooh tell us if there is 3p around?

This post was from before GH even died. on Day 2.

GH and Zack hadn't flipped yet, and they were both stalling to figure out some way of not dying.

Meanwhile, Slaan was putting forward a theory about 3 shots, 2 of which were on Winston and Pizza.

This would explain later on in the game why there was no scum vig visible that night.

But then GH got run over by a truck and then Zack got blasted. This plan had to be abandoned, thus the vanilla townie claim today.

He couldn't claim gift giver either, that's an instant loss.

But no vanilla townie can claim a missing kill that night that wasn't his own missing shot.

By simple deduction, if he's not vanilla and he's not a townie vig, and he knows the scums have a vig, who is Slaan?

[Montmorency]

He was not solo at the time. He had teammates, or did we kill them so fast you forgot? :P

The answer to your question is, the same reason they claim cop sometimes. To survive a lynch (even if only one lynch) and then use the doctor as an excuse as to why they still live.

But this game don't have a cop. So he wasn't gonna crumb cop, right. So he crumbed vig instead, anticipating the game had one.

They have only very limited use out of claiming doctor. Doctors always have to die. If he can claim vig at the critical moment, he can draw a lynch away from someone and onto someone else. Particularly, the town vigilante, if they suspect the game has one.



With one death? I don't think so.



They were not lock scum at the time. He was still arguing until Zack flipped that Zack was town, for example. Many people still had skeptical face.

All of those plans got shot to hell when Zack did.

OK, as I further consider this, Pizza, please tell me you realize that you look a lot like D3 Pizza in Visor's small game?

Are we still reading Slaan D1 or does the whole case ride on the proposed fake vig claim?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Someone other than Pizza explain why Slaan was claiming D2 rather than idly speculating, why the specific fact of suggesting a town vig and a mafia vig on top of mafia NK is a tell given the events of D2, N2, D3, N3, and how any variation of this could have been a plausible strategy following the events of D1.

When 1 of your buddies is dead and 2 look like they're hanging, he was defending Zack on day 2 and prepping a vig claim for day 2 to save GH.

He doesn't have a more plausible strategy other than waiting to be the only scumbag left and soloing the game.

This was Slaan's way of upsetting the apple cart and getting non-GH and non-Zack deaths, but GH was not save-able.

And then when Zack died, that gambit had to be abandoned and buried so no one would remember it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are we still reading Slaan D1 or does the whole case ride on the proposed fake vig claim?

If you think he's vanilla townie, you think he was crumbing a shot on choxorn while suggesting the mafia have 2 kills.

Okay, believe that. I don't.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Monty I wouldn't have even found the post if it weren't for you asking about his crumbing.

Thank you.

[Dp101]

I still think there is a doctor, a full doctor, because a strongman killer makes no sense against a gift giver / inventor role that will likely give out 1 doctor protection.

It's possible the strongman is just to counter the inventor's doc gift, but that makes such a role for town really really weak.

A one shot doctor is super weak anyway. It's highly unlikely to make any impact on a game.

Strongman only makes sense to counter a full doc.

Completely missed this earlier, sorry for being repetitive in my doubts.

[Montmorency]

When 1 of your buddies is dead and 2 look like they're hanging, he was defending Zack on day 2 and prepping a vig claim for day 2 to save GH.

He doesn't have a more plausible strategy other than waiting to be the only scumbag left and soloing the game.

This was Slaan's way of upsetting the apple cart and getting non-GH and non-Zack deaths, but GH was not save-able.

And then when Zack died, that gambit had to be abandoned and buried so no one would remember it.

What I present below is evidence that if there was a plan to save GH, it was never implemented in any stage. During N1, Slaan said he would always lynch GH over Chox D2:


I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

Wish that you die so you can get some rest or wish that you survive? :D

I'll head to bed as well, so in case me gets ripped let me give you my current list:

dp101, pizza, Winston, Kage
Fred
Monty, Csargo, Barto, Reinoe, Zack, Cuth, Xiahou
GH, Manasi
Chox

The big middle pack I'll need to sort out and have no strong feelings about one way or the other. I'm totally fine with pizzas points on Winston and kage/dp were looking good regardless (I got a bit sus of dp after his CFD comment but after Logic flipped mafia that looks very good for him).

The scummy points towards GH and Chox havent changed, I'm looking forward to hear from GH today. Manasi is just not playing like I'm used to, she is normally very chatty and active and here it's just ... well not much which pings me scummy.

Alright, gn8 all :)

Yes, Slaan isn't present much over early D2, but he continues to push GH (at least in theory):


Boy I'm just overall bothered by GH this game... just skimmed his ISO and nothing makes sense.

- Randomly votes around. First Csargo, then me, then on Cuth which was a seriously vote apparently (since afterwards he tried to get other ppl on it) but didnt bother to give a reason (Post 477 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761484&highlight=#post2053761484)). Maybe I missed it since I only skimmed but I dont think so
- Post 487 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761496&viewfull=1#post2053761496) bothered me, it suprises me that he read me and Fred so strongly even though GH saw a max of 3 games from me apparently (Anni, 1 day of Champ game, Wild West)... over the duno how many games you guys had here on the Org.
- His Logic defence being wrong... for most ppl I dont mind them much being wrong and maybe I expect too much but still
- And most importantly: Where is his solving? Today nothing so far, there wasnt much yesterday as well as far as I've seen... I mean I get he has to kinda defend himself today but why isnt he wolf hunting?

He is just playing bad all over in my eyes... which is annoying as I don't see this happening from either scum!GH or town!GH. Only thing I can think of is him being a bit bored for random mafia yet again. Saw a post from Lime on discord lately and GH apparently randed wolf in at least 4 games lately: Wildcard reuinion, The thing, Xcom, Wild West ..

So yea GH, give us something. If you hand us your partners we promise to lynch you last :)

I'd want for GH to do _something_ before he is hammered so I'll keep my vote off him for now.

Sets a deadline for hammering GH:


There are different definitions? I was referring to end the day early by having (currently) 8 votes on GH which would end it prematurely. Which other definition is there?

I'm fine with hammering GH tomorrow at roughly 24:00 CET (so 24h before the day would be regularly over) if he hasnt done anything until then, as I'd just assume scum!GH to be wasting our time at this point.

I give GH until next 00:00 GOAT time.. or closely to it. So far he hasnt made any attempt imo to really play the game and I'd imagine if he finally randed V again he'd be all over this game so... yea curious if he will actually show up and do stuff or not.



Asks Zack why GH isn't Mafia:


Why do you think GH isnt* mafia

So I just went ahead and read every post so made D2 so far and there were only two in regards to defending GH, one where someone else asked you about your townread on GH where you responded like this



and an independed one



And I'm a bit lazy and don't want to ISO you 100% rn to find your D1 defence of GH especially since it will raise questions anyway considering GH's defence of Logic D1 and Logics subsequent scum flip. So please, explain us your townread on GH given all the information we have right now, would be much appreciated.

Notably, the post you condemn him with came rather late in D2:


I get it pizza. And I agree (with some minor caveats)... but we shouldnt think us victorious just yet. Suprising things always happen and I wouldnt be super suprised if there is in the end only one wolf under GH/manasi/chox... just because I've very very rarely solved the game after D1 in my 7 years of playing (and arguably when it worked it was mostly lucky guessing ^^). I like rein as town for probably all the wrong reason and would have to check her out again at some point, same with most others. Thing is the ISO function here is kinda annoying and makes me not want to do it...

It's weird, I'm kinda trapped in a game here that's between my homesite and MU. Few good tools to use (same as my homsite) but activity similiar to MU which makes rereading stuff annoying. Also I see a clear path to be taken rn which gives me even less motivation to go and check ppl out again.

I'm also really wondering which roles there will be in this game in the end. Doc is clear on our side... but I imagine a vig would've vigged Chox or someone last night. Maybe Winston was vigged from mafia and their NK on pizza failed? What other roles could there be in a game such as this? (my homeboard only uses the same boring roles over and over and they don't seem likely)... don't speculate on this, don't think it helps town... just things I wonder.

Would Sooh tell us if there is 3p around?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I wouldn't have suspected Slaan at all if not for Fredwood directing me to his 5 person rapid POE that I skimmed past, aside from a couple iffy things I dismissed long ago.

I wouldn't be alive to suspect Slaan without the town doc.

I wouldn't have been able to get Zack if not for the town gift giver.

Never would have found Zack and GH if not for dp101.

Never would have felt confident without Winston being all over those three.

This is a total team effort. You all fill in the missing pieces of my crazy ass brain.

[Choxorn]

Hardclaim: Gift Giver

I gave Pizza the vig shot, and I gave Dp101 the doctor protection.

[Fredwood]

I wouldn't have suspected Slaan at all if not for Fredwood directing me to his 5 person rapid POE that I skimmed past, aside from a couple iffy things I dismissed long ago.

I wouldn't be alive to suspect Slaan without the town doc.

I wouldn't have been able to get Zack if not for the town gift giver.

Never would have found Zack and GH if not for dp101.

Never would have felt confident without Winston being all over those three.

This is a total team effort. You all fill in the missing pieces of my crazy ass brain.

I still take credit for GH >.>

[Choxorn]

I like your thinking. A vig shot sure sounds good right about now. Well, as long as Zack gets to eat it.

This post was me breadcrumbing, in a pretty subtle manner.

[Fredwood]

Hardclaim: Gift Giver

I gave Pizza the vig shot, and I gave Dp101 the doctor protection.

lol

[Askthepizzaguy]

What I present below is evidence that if there was a plan to save GH, it was never implemented in any stage. During N1, Slaan said he would always lynch GH over Chox D2:

Saving GH wouldn't mean town reading him. That's the mistake you're making.

GH still gets killed, later. Maybe. If the town brains that want to kill him are still alive. It still rips the narrative away from town and can potentially cause a kill up the POE, away from the normal scums.

Choxorn was thought of as scummy at the time but he was all over every scumbag. That's why they needed to get him before those flips.

Once GH and Zack flip, choxorn isn't reasonably gettable.

Monty, you're amazing, but you're forgetting the timeline and also assuming Slaan has to town read GH to save him or delay his death.

Does not work that way.

He's toasted.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hardclaim: Gift Giver

I gave Pizza the vig shot, and I gave Dp101 the doctor protection.

:daisy: amazing.

Get Slaan.

Someone hard claims doc we can wrap him up and ship him to his teammates.

You had to be protecting Askthepizzaguy on N1 (absolutely) and N3 (probably), I believe, but it makes the theory work.

[Montmorency]

Hardclaim: Gift Giver

I gave Pizza the vig shot, and I gave Dp101 the doctor protection.

I believe you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This post was me breadcrumbing, in a pretty subtle manner.

You were never scum after that post.

You were in the POE while also suggesting that Zack needed to die.

Once he flipped, Slaan should have never ever come at you today as his top suspect.

He accused you of being the bussing wolf, when it was him.

He falsely crumbed he shot you n1.

He tried to get you lynched ever since day 1.

Bag him and tag him!

[Fredwood]

lol

This is not because I don't believe him, just the timing is funny, Poor Slaan.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I still take credit for GH >.>

You get all the credits.

This was a town coming together. Basically everyone I can think of made a contribution. Manasi was even on Slaan d1.

Nobody did nothing for town. Nobody.

[Montmorency]

I'll say this: I will take Choxorn's advice on Slaan. It does make Slaan likelier scum, but I'm still not fully on board the crumbing case.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll say this: I will take @Choxorn (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=53365)'s advice on Slaan. It does make Slaan likelier scum, but I'm still not fully on board the crumbing case.

Baahhhhh

Monty, we are like toast and butter this game. We town read each other and we both killed it with our reads on scums.

We independently helped each other's cases repeatedly.

I don't care if I can't persuade you on this one. You did good, friend. You did really gosh danged good this game.

[Fredwood]

You get all the credits.

This was a town coming together. Basically everyone I can think of made a contribution. Manasi was even on Slaan d1.

Nobody did nothing for town. Nobody.

I'm actually being facetious to an extent. I just want to pat myself on the back for having a true read on GH instead of always being wrong about him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan

Give me some Slaancats!

Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats! Slaancats!

Welcome to the org! Please stay forever even if you hate the skins, brother!

[Fredwood]

As to Slaan and the pre-crumb post crumb crumbling crumbs I'll have to think more. I have a headache now

[Montmorency]

I actually forgot about that, to be honest, and that's a good point.

I still think some of your posts are a little questionable, but on re-read you overall look pretty good, and I don't really see you being scummates with Zack right now.

So, Zack/GH/? then.

I guess it wasn't PIS.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wild ass guess that Cuth or Xiahou is our full doc, due to their low profile.

If so, it's how I caught Logic in that game he was a doc and I was a woof.

[Fredwood]

I guess it wasn't PIS.

Plot induced stupidity?

[Dp101]

Hardclaim: Gift Giver

I gave Pizza the vig shot, and I gave Dp101 the doctor protection.

Why didn't you give both to Pizza, like, after he did well with the vig, I don't see why you didn't give him control of the doctor as well.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I guess it wasn't PIS.

If you need to trade away a whole wolf (and a power role wolf, imo) for one townie, make it one that's suspecting all your partners but is presently lynchable.

Choxorn was the rightest townie with the "bussing"est profile they could pin stuff on after the Logic wagon.

That's why Slaan was crumbing a shot on him, that's why he was willing to hang possibly to get him lynched, and THAT explains the abrasion on your palm!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why didn't you give both to Pizza, like, after he did well with the vig, I don't see why you didn't give him control of the doctor as well.

I can't protect myself with it. You can and you're at the top of the town pile.

Good move, since Slaan was up there too.

[Askthepizzaguy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD2Kp9vLR9Q

[Choxorn]

Why didn't you give both to Pizza, like, after he did well with the vig, I don't see why you didn't give him control of the doctor as well.

A. He can't protect himself
B. I thought the chances were pretty high he'd be the N2 Kill, and I figured I'd give it to another one of my townreads who I thought was more likely to survive
C. I can't give someone more than one gift

[Montmorency]

We have most of two days, and the only possible alternative right now is Barto, whom we haven't sniffed at yet.

Unvote: Barto

Vote: Slaan

Have some rest and we'll return to the whole mess the next RL day.

Though I kind of feel that there is no logical way for Slaan to clear himself if Pizza's reasoning is somehow valid.

[Askthepizzaguy]

LMFAO

I am officially so crazy sounding that even Monty cannot follow my logic.

ACHIEVEMENT. UNLOCKED!!!

[Csargo]

I don't get why the vig claim would have protected GH/Zack from death, so I don't really follow that.

I do think you're right though, because that paragraph was a huge leap of speculation based on absolutely nothing in the thread on Slaan's part, which just doesn't make sense at all unless you have information everyone else isn't privy too.

[Dp101]

A. He can't protect himself
B. I thought the chances were pretty high he'd be the N2 Kill, and I figured I'd give it to another one of my townreads who I thought was more likely to survive
C. I can't give someone more than one gift

Odd, I was told that there were no restrictions on who I could target, so I thought that A wasn't a factor. C makes a lot of sense though.

[Dp101]

I do think you're right though, because that paragraph was a huge leap of speculation based on absolutely nothing in the thread on Slaan's part, which just doesn't make sense at all unless you have information everyone else isn't privy too.

Ehh, I don't think NK speculation alone is scummy, I've done it as both alignments whenever there's a kill or results that I didn't expect. It's just that the number of kills predicted after only one death is a little odd.

[Csargo]

Ehh, I don't think NK speculation alone is scummy, I've done it as both alignments whenever there's a kill or results that I didn't expect. It's just that the number of kills predicted after only one death is a little odd.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't get why the vig claim would have protected GH/Zack from death, so I don't really follow that.

I do think you're right though, because that paragraph was a huge leap of speculation based on absolutely nothing in the thread on Slaan's part, which just doesn't make sense at all unless you have information everyone else isn't privy too.

Here's the scenario I see.

D2, Logic just got hung and GH looks bad and Zack looks bad. He'd already laid the ground work on day one and all the way into day 2 about him possibly having a vig shot. He suggested that shot was on choxorn, who had voted logic and also had GH and Zack as scummy at various times.

At that point, choxorn becomes super valuable to mislynch, before Gh and Zack flip.

After they flip, he's much less gettable. So, they'd need to do this on day 2, or on day 3. It also becomes much less plausible after that, because if he claims to have shot choxorn and nothing happened, why'd he wait so long to say so?

So it basically only ever happens on day 2 or day 3.

Meanwhile, he says Zack is town but GH is not.

Then, he and zack and gh decide whether to pull the gambit or not. Thus the stalling most of the day.

They see the writing on the wall as the wagon gets bigger and everyone finds him scummy.

At that point, the danger is if Slaan pulls this claim out, it's gonna look like he's deliberately trying to save GH. The moment has passed.

He could try it again on Day 3, mayyyybe.

That night, Zack dies. It's too late. The plan cannot work now.

Strongman that flipped means we have a town doctor, and he can only speculate on a third kill in his crumb post, with 2 missing kills in a single night, if he knows there was a missing kill. He has to be a town vig or a scum vig.

We have to have a town doctor, otherwise the strongman makes absolutely no sense. It's going to be used against a gifted 1 shot doc, that's overkill. It makes the gift giver even weaker and it's already generally a weak role.

Its value is mostly in confirming itself as an existing role.

[El Barto]

I have +50 posts to catch up with, but choxie schmoxie was the counterwaggon proposed by GH and also Zack and I did point it out. I don't think either of us is mafia.

[El Barto]

Hardclaim: Gift Giver
Oh, this changes everything.

I think you're both overvaluing and undervaluing the spew and planning too many steps ahead.

The lynch should always be Bart or Chox today in my mind. I don't see any scenario or any reason to even consider of lynching outside of that.
Hindsight's a female dog, innit?

BTW: Vote: El Barto

I believe in chess this is known as "forking".
If forking is what is usually marked as ??, then sure.

[El Barto]

OK, in a fit of townie-itis I've collected all the EOD tallies and colour-coded them for your convenience, as the TropeCo catalogue recommends. The interlocking claims of choxie schmoxie, pizzaman the cheesy poster and Dp101 make them all-but-town i.e. unbolded blue; bolded blue are people I know are town because the GM has said so.

THAT'S A LYNCH!

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (2): Xiahou, Dp101

Logic (6): Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Dp101 (2): GH, Zack

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


Standby for flip.


THAT IS A HAMMER!

GH (8): Montmorency, El Barto, Xiahou, Kagemusha, Pizza, Dp101, Csargo, Reinoe,

Choxorn (1): Zack,

Not voting (6): Cuthillius, Slaan, Choxorn, GH, Fredwood, Manasi,

With 15 players there are 8 to hammer.
(Zack is killed in the Night Phase, then Manasi implodes and becomes a policy lynch)

THAT'S A HAMMER!!


Manasi (7): Pizza, Slaan, Montmorency, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo,

Not voting (5): Choxorn, Fredwood, Manasi, Xiahou, Reinoe

With 12 players there are 7 to hammer.
Feel free to wring tour brains with patterns. I'm spent.

[El Barto]

I guess it wasn't PIS.Plot induced stupidity?
Perfect Information Syndrome.

[Fredwood]

Oh, this changes everything.

Hindsight's a female dog, innit?

If forking is what is usually marked as ??, then sure.

A plus job of catching up.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Slaan (2): Pizza, Montmorency,

Not voting (8): Choxorn, Fredwood, Xiahou, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo Slaan,

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[El Barto]

A plus job of catching up.
Well, I had about eight posts copied in notepad and I suddenly ran into choxorn hard-claiming so I threw most of them out. :quiet:

[Dp101]

OK, in a fit of townie-itis I've collected all the EOD tallies and colour-coded them for your convenience, as the TropeCo catalogue recommends. The interlocking claims of choxie schmoxie, pizzaman the cheesy poster and Dp101 make them all-but-town i.e. unbolded blue; bolded blue are people I know are town because the GM has said so.



(Zack is killed in the Night Phase, then Manasi implodes and becomes a policy lynch)

Feel free to wring tour brains with patterns. I'm spent.

Forgot to include Reinoe in blue.

[Choxorn]

Odd, I was told that there were no restrictions on who I could target, so I thought that A wasn't a factor. C makes a lot of sense though.

Now that I think about it, I don't remember any restrictions on self-protection either, so maybe I just assumed that because that's how I'm used to doctor roles working.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Doctors can self protect on some sites I've been to. But on most, it's assumed that they cannot, or it's even written into the role that they can't.

[Slaan]

Good morning and holy crap is Pizza going off the deep end... let me tell you why his case is (sorry for the language) moronic....

1) He assumes I'm mafia vig, why tf would the mafia vig build up to fake claiming the town vig? Like why. It draws attention and questions when weird, non consensus night kills happen and as mafia vig I want non consensus night kills.... why would I ever bread crumb this? I could maybe understand the argument for another mafia to breadcrumb instead of the actual vig or smth but this ???. Maybe its possible a lategame move towards lylo or smth but D1?
2) My 'theory of 3 shots' wasnt a theory of 3 shots. It was me saying 'we apparently don't have a vig as a vig would've vigged Chox'.. at least that's what I thought. I then, it was late-ish in D2, went wondering about PR's in general... I remembered Sooh saying there'd be 'some PR's' in this game so I wondered what the could be. We saw the first day and first night pass and nothing unusual happen... ok a strongman flipped which also meant a doc around most likely but that's about it? A vig being somewhere made sense to me... so I blindly speculated. Why would I speculate as fucking mafia this way? This perfect information syndrom bs is just that, bs. I literally just finished in a huge experimental game 'Orchestrated Chaos' where I as mafia had tons of informations that V's didnt have and I didnt spill a thing over the almost 3 weeks this game went on (knew of like 70% of all abilities from the get go) and now I sit here and TMI such a basic thing? I'm actually considering this to be insulting on some level...
3) Why the :daisy: would I ever vig Winston of all ppl in N1? I didnt have a read on him at all at this point, I would've killed off one of my townreads so I could develop Winston however I saw fit. Why kill of a null from my pile instead of Kage of dp? Makes no sense
4) What the :daisy: did I do other than that? So I'm a vig... ok. Not a regular vig, no additional kills N2 or N3. Odd night vig? But then I'd have to have vigged myself last night... that doesnt quite seem likely. One shot vig? Then why _THE :daisy:_ would I vig in N1? I was in zero danger, I was part of the town core. Keep it holstered, play the game quietly etc etc... you know, what I'd have done if I was actual part of mafia. Why waste it N1 on Winston?

This entire case is Pizza getting unsecure because Manasi didnt work out, getting called out for it and now and needing to find someone he misread previously to push today to cement his hero image... which will only take a deeper dive after he mislynched me over this bs case.

It has had its ups though, Monty is now secured in my town pile. He stood up for me early and asked the correct questions, as mafia he could've just been happy pizza threw out one of his cores... (though his vote on me in the end doesnt look too good.. why make that if he wants to reconsider.......... >_>)

Anyway, I also believe Chox claim.. at least until there is a counter claim and if that doesnt come forth today he is locked... or the actual gift giver is an idiot. I doubt the second possiblity though, Chox was in no immediate danger so yea. Just one question Choxorn : What did you do N1?

With all those infos let us recheck all players:

2. Csargo - PoE, dont see why not
3. Dp101 - lock town still, spewed hard town imo
4. Pizza - misguided town or some weird 3p which I don't see us ever defeating so w/e. After him going after me like this I was wondering if he could ever be mafia but he was too obsessed the entire game... mafia tends to not be obsessed but calculating and he wasnt.
5. Fredwood - PoE, but need to read further than page 30
6. El Barto - ... guess PoE after all the backlash I got from my townreading him, will be reviewed with my rereading.
7. Montmorency - lock town after everything imo. Spew quite good and him defending me looks good as well.
9. Cuthillius - PoE, don't see why not at this point
11. Slaan - super sith lord mafia vig
13. Choxorn - lock town
16. Xiahou - I'm SERIOUSLY gonig to be me if Xiahou ends up being the last scum. That would be bm as fuck essentially not playing at this point as scum.

So yea, enjoy that post. Sorry if I was getting a bit mean at times... I don't mind being scumread over stuff generally but if someone calls me out for essentially mechanical mistakes I just can't help myself. I would never even start such a weird long term strategy as mafia.. because why? Just get townread and ride it out...? Why risk ppl asking 'why are you still alive after claiming vig' or whatever bs.. it makes. no. sense. And that annoys me, that pizza still put on his helmet and went full force... because his case only makes sense if he considers me an imbecil at mafia and I'm not. Check the MU award nomination thread where I was nominated for my Orchestrated Chaos mafia play.....

Don't know what else I could do. If you mislynch me I'll haunt you from the graveyard and root for the last mafia ;)

[Slaan]

Also this post wasnt checked for grammar or spelling or any other errors (not that it matters, my english has been shite here so far... once said 'just've' instead of 'should've' <_<) so sorry for anything that slipped through.

[Slaan]

Just glancing over it... I'm not gonna be 'me' if Xiahou ends up being last scum... I'm going to be mad. MAD

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/dTa.gif

[Slaan]

Gonna be off to work now, bb

[Fredwood]

Good morning and holy crap is Pizza going off the deep end... let me tell you why his case is (sorry for the language) moronic....

1) He assumes I'm mafia vig, why tf would the mafia vig build up to fake claiming the town vig? Like why. It draws attention and questions when weird, non consensus night kills happen and as mafia vig I want non consensus night kills.... why would I ever bread crumb this? I could maybe understand the argument for another mafia to breadcrumb instead of the actual vig or smth but this ???. Maybe its possible a lategame move towards lylo or smth but D1?
2) My 'theory of 3 shots' wasnt a theory of 3 shots. It was me saying 'we apparently don't have a vig as a vig would've vigged Chox'.. at least that's what I thought. I then, it was late-ish in D2, went wondering about PR's in general... I remembered Sooh saying there'd be 'some PR's' in this game so I wondered what the could be. We saw the first day and first night pass and nothing unusual happen... ok a strongman flipped which also meant a doc around most likely but that's about it? A vig being somewhere made sense to me... so I blindly speculated. Why would I speculate as fucking mafia this way? This perfect information syndrom bs is just that, bs. I literally just finished in a huge experimental game 'Orchestrated Chaos' where I as mafia had tons of informations that V's didnt have and I didnt spill a thing over the almost 3 weeks this game went on (knew of like 70% of all abilities from the get go) and now I sit here and TMI such a basic thing? I'm actually considering this to be insulting on some level...
3) Why the :daisy: would I ever vig Winston of all ppl in N1? I didnt have a read on him at all at this point, I would've killed off one of my townreads so I could develop Winston however I saw fit. Why kill of a null from my pile instead of Kage of dp? Makes no sense
4) What the :daisy: did I do other than that? So I'm a vig... ok. Not a regular vig, no additional kills N2 or N3. Odd night vig? But then I'd have to have vigged myself last night... that doesnt quite seem likely. One shot vig? Then why _THE :daisy:_ would I vig in N1? I was in zero danger, I was part of the town core. Keep it holstered, play the game quietly etc etc... you know, what I'd have done if I was actual part of mafia. Why waste it N1 on Winston?

This entire case is Pizza getting unsecure because Manasi didnt work out, getting called out for it and now and needing to find someone he misread previously to push today to cement his hero image... which will only take a deeper dive after he mislynched me over this bs case.

It has had its ups though, Monty is now secured in my town pile. He stood up for me early and asked the correct questions, as mafia he could've just been happy pizza threw out one of his cores... (though his vote on me in the end doesnt look too good.. why make that if he wants to reconsider.......... >_>)

Anyway, I also believe Chox claim.. at least until there is a counter claim and if that doesnt come forth today he is locked... or the actual gift giver is an idiot. I doubt the second possiblity though, Chox was in no immediate danger so yea. Just one question Choxorn : What did you do N1?

With all those infos let us recheck all players:

2. Csargo - PoE, dont see why not
3. Dp101 - lock town still, spewed hard town imo
4. Pizza - misguided town or some weird 3p which I don't see us ever defeating so w/e. After him going after me like this I was wondering if he could ever be mafia but he was too obsessed the entire game... mafia tends to not be obsessed but calculating and he wasnt.
5. Fredwood - PoE, but need to read further than page 30
6. El Barto - ... guess PoE after all the backlash I got from my townreading him, will be reviewed with my rereading.
7. Montmorency - lock town after everything imo. Spew quite good and him defending me looks good as well.
9. Cuthillius - PoE, don't see why not at this point
11. Slaan - super sith lord mafia vig
13. Choxorn - lock town
16. Xiahou - I'm SERIOUSLY gonig to be me if Xiahou ends up being the last scum. That would be bm as fuck essentially not playing at this point as scum.

So yea, enjoy that post. Sorry if I was getting a bit mean at times... I don't mind being scumread over stuff generally but if someone calls me out for essentially mechanical mistakes I just can't help myself. I would never even start such a weird long term strategy as mafia.. because why? Just get townread and ride it out...? Why risk ppl asking 'why are you still alive after claiming vig' or whatever bs.. it makes. no. sense. And that annoys me, that pizza still put on his helmet and went full force... because his case only makes sense if he considers me an imbecil at mafia and I'm not. Check the MU award nomination thread where I was nominated for my Orchestrated Chaos mafia play.....

Don't know what else I could do. If you mislynch me I'll haunt you from the graveyard and root for the last mafia ;)

This makes less sense then Pizza's post.

Luckily there's some things that are bad regardless of the "did he crumb or didn't he crumb" debate which even my pea brain can comprehend.

First Winston was a universal Town Read Day 1, even by you.


Wish that you die so you can get some rest or wish that you survive? :D

I'll head to bed as well, so in case me gets ripped let me give you my current list:

dp101, pizza, Winston, Kage
Fred
Monty, Csargo, Barto, Reinoe, Zack, Cuth, Xiahou
GH, Manasi
Chox

The big middle pack I'll need to sort out and have no strong feelings about one way or the other. I'm totally fine with pizzas points on Winston and kage/dp were looking good regardless (I got a bit sus of dp after his CFD comment but after Logic flipped mafia that looks very good for him).

The scummy points towards GH and Chox havent changed, I'm looking forward to hear from GH today. Manasi is just not playing like I'm used to, she is normally very chatty and active and here it's just ... well not much which pings me scummy.

Alright, gn8 all :)

That was 3 hours before Day 2 opened. Post #1224 So I know there's some short term memory loss that you just forget everything that happened in the thread while you're re-reading, but you should remember that you had him lock cleared before his flip. Then again, Maybe not
Fred lock town now btw.. I mean I guess you could argue that you'd remember why you murdered him, but that means if you're town that it wasn't a real read, which makes less sense then you forgetting that post.

You're lock clearing Monty now (don't get used to it Monty he'll cruelly retract the lock clear status in a day or two
Fred lock town now btw.) for defending you...he's the only person other then Pizza voting for you. Also what spew spewed Monty clear? Monty was in everyone's "seems like he's trying but we can't give him full credit" pile, I could check but I think you're the first to claim that he was spewed clear. Seems like you missed his vote and are still trying to appease him and his work ethic.

I mean the only other explanation other then scum is that you use the words spew and lock town entirely too much.

[Fredwood]

I also would like to point out, WRT to your night one post where you put Winston on the same level of Pizza and Kage that you had DP in the same category before the GH flip.

There was reason to town read DP then, and there's never a scenario where you vote out DP before GH. To your admission DP was lock clear because of GH and Zack spew, yet you had DP as top tier town a full day before GH's flip, whichmay be a difference in process, there's no reason to top tier town him until after the GH flip, he easily solvable but not confirmed.

[Fredwood]

I also would like to point out, WRT to your night one post where you put Winston on the same level of Pizza and Kage that you had DP in the same category before the GH flip.

There was reason to town read DP then and there's never a scenario where you vote out DP before GH. Most of your stance today was that DP is lock clear because of GH and Zack spew, yet you had DP as top tier town a full day before GH's flip, which may be a difference in process, there's no reason to top tier town him until after the GH flip. Easily solvable but not confirmed

EPWIOP, migraines and insomnia make good words.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Good morning and holy crap is Pizza going off the deep end... let me tell you why his case is (sorry for the language) moronic....

1) He assumes I'm mafia vig, why tf would the mafia vig build up to fake claiming the town vig? Like why. It draws attention and questions when weird, non consensus night kills happen and as mafia vig I want non consensus night kills.... why would I ever bread crumb this? I could maybe understand the argument for another mafia to breadcrumb instead of the actual vig or smth but this ???. Maybe its possible a lategame move towards lylo or smth but D1?

If you need to counterclaim a vig, or to claim you had a one shot vig and tried to vig someone, is leaving something visible in the thread. Otherwise when you claim, you don't have anything visible in your posts all game long to support it. Much like when scums claim cop in cop games, their posts have to match their eventual claim in a believable way. One can't for example say that X is scummy and then later claim that they cop checked them and found them to be innocent. The story doesn't match.

If you ever claim vig, for counterclaim or simply claiming-to-cause-mislynch purposes, having something that matches the story is the only way it is bought.

The play is only good for one lynch, just like counterclaiming a cop. Once a flip happens, the jig is up.

A vig is no different in that regard. It has the exact same claim utility. How often do you play with vigs? You've never seen someone fake claim vig? You even said you were faking crumbing a vig here, so obviously you've seen people fake vig claims before.

Acting surprised that someone would use it as a strategy as an actual vig, is not just iffy, it's unbelievable.


2) My 'theory of 3 shots' wasnt a theory of 3 shots. It was me saying 'we apparently don't have a vig as a vig would've vigged Chox'.. at least that's what I thought.

Lets go back to what you wrote in black and white.


I'm also really wondering which roles there will be in this game in the end. Doc is clear on our side... but I imagine a vig would've vigged Chox or someone last night. Maybe Winston was vigged from mafia and their NK on pizza failed? What other roles could there be in a game such as this? (my homeboard only uses the same boring roles over and over and they don't seem likely)... don't speculate on this, don't think it helps town... just things I wonder.

You were saying, by context, either you believed that town didn't have a vig, or they would have vigged choxorn.

What's missing then is the leap between that concept, and the idea that the mafia had a vigilante shot against Winston Hughes and a mafia team kill against Askthepizzaguy on the same night, in the exact same post, in the next sentence.

Let's pretend both kills succeeded and were visible, which is also a leap since there was only one kill attempt that we know of.

Even so, why would you not immediately assume one of the kills was a really misguided town vigilante who one of Winston or Pizza had been accusing, or they had put us down as scum and decided to yolo it.

Why is that not the more logical theory than immediately leaping to, town has no vigilante but the mafia has two kills?



3) Why the :daisy: would I ever vig Winston of all ppl in N1? I didnt have a read on him at all at this point, I would've killed off one of my townreads so I could develop Winston however I saw fit. Why kill of a null from my pile instead of Kage of dp? Makes no sense

At no point was I ever suggesting you were really a town vigilante here. You hard claimed not being one, I asked you directly.

Why you'd vig him is if he's not on your team.


4) What the :daisy: did I do other than that? So I'm a vig... ok. Not a regular vig, no additional kills N2 or N3. Odd night vig? But then I'd have to have vigged myself last night... that doesnt quite seem likely. One shot vig? Then why _THE :daisy:_ would I vig in N1? I was in zero danger, I was part of the town core. Keep it holstered, play the game quietly etc etc... you know, what I'd have done if I was actual part of mafia. Why waste it N1 on Winston?

Aside from the stuff about what you'd have been doing as a town vig, which I am not saying you were doing.

I don't know what could have happened on night two. Full night vig would have to hit doctor protection on N1 and N2 both times.

It's plausible that once a vig is the solo scum they cannot keep a second kill, but I don't know about that for sure. I've seen them be able to have team kills before in mashes, just don't know if such mechanics would apply to a small game. Doubtful even.

A one extra shot vig or an odd night vig are the only other plausible explanations for the scum team. You wouldn't need to claim many shots, and it's even possible for there to be multiple vigs in a game and not be scum if they have limitations (i.e. one shot from an inventor, one sometimes shot but not every night shot from a different role). You also know in this setup there's a strongman if you're scum, therefore missing kills can be explained by doctor protections as I said.

With the idea of limited shots in play and plausible reasons why they'd go missing, the claim is much easier to make for a scumbag. Then you could claim a shot on someone and say it did not cause a death and suspect them for it, and later, you can explain the missing night of a kill, and then visibly kill on the night thereafter to prove you have the power, and it isn't immediately outing if it's odd night. Or, you could completely claim to be a one-shot vig even if you had an odd night. The point is, you have options.

Putting shots into both Winston and Pizza on night 1 guarantees one of us dies, somewhat checks if we're bulletproof, or confirms we're being doctor protected. There was never going to be a more useful time to shoot twice, even if you only had a single shot to play with.


So yea, enjoy that post. Sorry if I was getting a bit mean at times...

I don't call people morons for wrong guesses and I don't appreciate being called one.

You told me all game long that this play from you was part of your own scum meta. You'll have to forgive me at some point for believing it, when you posted about choosing people who would make a good final 5 lynchee, anticipating a lot of failure between now and then, and claiming a never-seen mafia vig in addition to a mafia team kill, while also admitting to crumbing that you might have been a vig earlier this round before you confirmed you were not one.

If I am not allowed to have legitimate suspicion on you after that, I shouldn't be playing this game. Frankly none of us should be.

That's all I have to say on that. I prefer these games stay civil, joking, the interplay between us meant to elicit entertaining reactions, not hurt feelings. If I've offended you by accusing you wrongly then it was not my intention.

I don't give a single fig about these games. I care about them to an extent as a hobby I enjoy a LOT, but if it results in people getting personally offended or upset in real life, it's not a game to me anymore.

After the game, my intention is that Slaan and Askthepizzaguy can still like each other. If I've failed on that then the game doesn't matter to me.

But I have to be allowed to be wrong or I cannot be allowed to play.

Unvote

[Askthepizzaguy]

I've dealt with too many people yelling at me for being a moron for accusing them this game.

I've had my fill.

[Fredwood]

Also, you had Chox below GH for that upcoming day 2, which falls in line with the concerted attempt that Zack and GH had to push Chox day 2. Your post about your GH/Chox theory would further back this up


I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

At the time I contested this theory.

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to prop up WIFOM.

2nd because that wasn't a move designed to save Chox. Chox was in no danger of being lynched, in fact the only ones really pushing him were Zack and GH, so it's clouding the game state implying there was two actual wagons. It also further increased the chances of the Chox lynch Day 2 so it did nothing to distract away from a scum teammate. You were playing the role of the "logical townie" to try and see if the Chox and GH are scum theory works but never was able to fully pursue it because distancing.

It's also interesting to not the places of GH and Chox on your post here. This seems to indicate you want to Lynch GH next phase but are willing to switch to Chox, but the post you make later is one that indicates Chox is your number one suspect in a tier by himself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is why I don't play on a lot of other sites anymore. I come home to the org so I don't have to be verbally abused if I guess wrong.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can actually say my tinfoil hat theories and put my emotions into those cases and really try, and not worry about what if I'm wrong to an abnormal extent.

If the only cases I can make are the ones where the conclusion is obvious, consensus, or straightforward in a game with championship-caliber tacticians and strategists, I don't know what I'm friggen doing here.

[Choxorn]

Just one question Choxorn : What did you do N1?


I would think, given the timing of Zack's death, that the ordering of my actions would be obvious.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This game is literally full of a half dozen forums worth of nominated and finalist "champions" who were acknowledged by their peers as being exceptionally difficult to find as wolves and extraordinary as townies.

Yeah, I think it's possible someone fooled me this game. I'm sorry for that compliment.

[Fredwood]

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to prop up WIFOM.


Should read differently. GH gains no town equity for bussing Logic there, he can buy some WIFOM points by taking the contrarian stand on logic. It locked him into Chox though unless he could present doubt about weakly town read players but the execution was a misfire, which did force scum to push Chox day 2.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Dp101 is not on the table for me. I've stated why in the iso I did of him. If GH and Zack pushed him like that, it was good distancing, but I don't believe it since he doesn't AtE as scum as far as I know, and he got mad at reinoe.

Csargo I never isoed. I remember just thinking as the game got on in days that his posts looked better and better and the opening awkwardness was missing.

Fredwood could be scum, in some universe. I guess. I don't see it. I did iso him and he looks fantastic.

Barto is in the POE and he's who I would have lynched today if Slaan's POE didn't look overly calculated.

Monty is townier than I've ever seen him. I guess he could do this, because he's an amazing scum.

Cuthillius I have very little to go on. Just a feeling from isoing him. I also don't think it's in his meta to just slank to the end of a game. But I can't lock him.

Choxorn is lock by claim now.

Xiahou has an outstanding vote record. I don't think you ever lynch there. I feel like I have a good record with low posters because of my experience playing on this site. I've played with Khazaar, I've played with Autolycus, I play with csargo when he's posting twice a round. I'm used to snapping a read on the low posters. This is what my gut is telling me about him.

Those are the alternatives today. If I just go into Csargo or Barto and they're both wrong, by then I'm probably dead, I can't look at my deeper townies.

That's all I have. Hopefully someone else can figure this out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Mixed up csargo and choxorn's names again.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Going to be cleaning up some language in earlier posts. Keep cool, people. :daisy:

[Csargo]

Mixed up csargo and choxorn's names again.

:soapbox:

[Slaan]

First off I want to apologize for the language used, I barely slept 3 hours before rejoining this thread and the case pizza made on me had me shaking my head the entire time... the way he then pushed his case made me feel smothered which made me go overboard defensively... I didnt want to offend anyone ... so again: sorry.


This makes less sense then Pizza's post.

Luckily there's some things that are bad regardless of the "did he crumb or didn't he crumb" debate which even my pea brain can comprehend.

First Winston was a universal Town Read Day 1, even by you.



That was 3 hours before Day 2 opened. Post #1224 So I know there's some short term memory loss that you just forget everything that happened in the thread while you're re-reading, but you should remember that you had him lock cleared before his flip. Then again, Maybe not. I mean I guess you could argue that you'd remember why you murdered him, but that means if you're town that it wasn't a real read, which makes less sense then you forgetting that post.

You're lock clearing Monty now (don't get used to it Monty he'll cruelly retract the lock clear status in a day or two ) for defending you...he's the only person other then Pizza voting for you. Also what spew spewed Monty clear? Monty was in everyone's "seems like he's trying but we can't give him full credit" pile, I could check but I think you're the first to claim that he was spewed clear. Seems like you missed his vote and are still trying to appease him and his work ethic.

I mean the only other explanation other then scum is that you use the words spew and lock town entirely too much.

Sorta fair points. I'm actually suprised I had Winston as top town... I think at that time because like 80%+ of my reads lined up with pizzas at the time I just adopted his read on Winston which admittately is bad. In regards to monty I thought he was very town from his Post 652 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761701&viewfull=1#post2053761701) and others. Spew is probably the wrong word, more progression on the mafia than spew I suppose. And I used 'lock clear' a bit loosely at times and like to reconsider... noone is actually lock clear for me unless there is a peek on this person... in games with no cops I use 'lock town' to denoate a strong sense of townyness at the time of posting which is subject to change. And I guess I'm not 100% down yet with the MU lingo for what spew is, is it only posts from wolves towards another person or also the persons post towards wolves?

Anyway, the point on Winston is def an inconsitency and if you want to lynch me over that, fine. This I wouldn't mind (as much, it's still wrong but w/e) as there is a legit reason there I guess.

[Slaan]

I also would like to point out, WRT to your night one post where you put Winston on the same level of Pizza and Kage that you had DP in the same category before the GH flip.

There was reason to town read DP then, and there's never a scenario where you vote out DP before GH. To your admission DP was lock clear because of GH and Zack spew, yet you had DP as top tier town a full day before GH's flip, whichmay be a difference in process, there's no reason to top tier town him until after the GH flip, he easily solvable but not confirmed.

DP was my top town for a long time purely from his tone and how he played felt genuine. The way Zack/GH interacted with him just sealed it even further.

[Slaan]

If you need to counterclaim a vig, or to claim you had a one shot vig and tried to vig someone, is leaving something visible in the thread. Otherwise when you claim, you don't have anything visible in your posts all game long to support it. Much like when scums claim cop in cop games, their posts have to match their eventual claim in a believable way. One can't for example say that X is scummy and then later claim that they cop checked them and found them to be innocent. The story doesn't match.

If you ever claim vig, for counterclaim or simply claiming-to-cause-mislynch purposes, having something that matches the story is the only way it is bought.

The play is only good for one lynch, just like counterclaiming a cop. Once a flip happens, the jig is up.

A vig is no different in that regard. It has the exact same claim utility. How often do you play with vigs? You've never seen someone fake claim vig? You even said you were faking crumbing a vig here, so obviously you've seen people fake vig claims before.

Acting surprised that someone would use it as a strategy as an actual vig, is not just iffy, it's unbelievable.

This crumbing to make it believable is never done this openly though in my experience? Not to mention I still don't know why I would put myself out there as mafia... maybe it's because I know my own mafia playstyle rather well I'm 100% certain that such a strategy is way outside my scumrange... there is hardly any benefit from it I can see... not to mention in a closed setting where I wouldnt even know if there was a town vig? It just makes no sense to me no matter how I twist and turn it...


Lets go back to what you wrote in black and white.



You were saying, by context, either you believed that town didn't have a vig, or they would have vigged choxorn.

What's missing then is the leap between that concept, and the idea that the mafia had a vigilante shot against Winston Hughes and a mafia team kill against Askthepizzaguy on the same night, in the exact same post, in the next sentence.

Let's pretend both kills succeeded and were visible, which is also a leap since there was only one kill attempt that we know of.

Even so, why would you not immediately assume one of the kills was a really misguided town vigilante who one of Winston or Pizza had been accusing, or they had put us down as scum and decided to yolo it.

Why is that not the more logical theory than immediately leaping to, town has no vigilante but the mafia has two kills?

Which towny would've vigged either you or Winston at this point? And why would I make this post int he first place? I mean I might get it if mafia made a post shortly after the night ended in confusion of why there was only one kill (but c'mon, with a strongman around a towndoc is obvious)... the way you go after this post is what made me angry yesterday because it implies that I play mafia very badly to even make such a post... which again gains 0 benefits. It's (obviously now...) not a good townpost either but when I play as town I don't care all that much how I look and just get my thoughts out there. That's what you are seeing here.





At no point was I ever suggesting you were really a town vigilante here. You hard claimed not being one, I asked you directly.

Why you'd vig him is if he's not on your team.

Arent you suggesting I'm the mafia vig that targeted Winston or you N1? If you don't think so then you going after my speculative posts makes even less sense because why as mafia would I even wonder if there were night kills against both you and Winston? And when I NK someone there goes a little more thought into it then just 'he isnt on my team'.


Aside from the stuff about what you'd have been doing as a town vig, which I am not saying you were doing.

I don't know what could have happened on night two. Full night vig would have to hit doctor protection on N1 and N2 both times.

It's plausible that once a vig is the solo scum they cannot keep a second kill, but I don't know about that for sure. I've seen them be able to have team kills before in mashes, just don't know if such mechanics would apply to a small game. Doubtful even.

A one extra shot vig or an odd night vig are the only other plausible explanations for the scum team. You wouldn't need to claim many shots, and it's even possible for there to be multiple vigs in a game and not be scum if they have limitations (i.e. one shot from an inventor, one sometimes shot but not every night shot from a different role). You also know in this setup there's a strongman if you're scum, therefore missing kills can be explained by doctor protections as I said.

With the idea of limited shots in play and plausible reasons why they'd go missing, the claim is much easier to make for a scumbag. Then you could claim a shot on someone and say it did not cause a death and suspect them for it, and later, you can explain the missing night of a kill, and then visibly kill on the night thereafter to prove you have the power, and it isn't immediately outing if it's odd night. Or, you could completely claim to be a one-shot vig even if you had an odd night. The point is, you have options.

Putting shots into both Winston and Pizza on night 1 guarantees one of us dies, somewhat checks if we're bulletproof, or confirms we're being doctor protected. There was never going to be a more useful time to shoot twice, even if you only had a single shot to play with.

I don't follow... so you agree that I'm no full vig I think? Because that would mean that I literally ran into a doc protection three times. Odd night vig? Would still not explain last night where I was the one being protected. So one shot vig... then again I don't understand why I'd ever use it N1. The game was wide open, if Winston died or not who cares at this point. Keep the vig for a potential mylo or smth or suprise town towards the end with a vig that makes them have one less lynch. It's probably WIFOM (not sure if I use this term correctly...) to speculate on this but from my perspective it never makes sense.



I don't call people morons for wrong guesses and I don't appreciate being called one.

Again apologies... shouldnt have used the 'm' word... (though I only called the case as such, not you. You made fantastic cases against the wolves that flipped so far... still shouldnt have used the word, I'm truely sorry)


You told me all game long that this play from you was part of your own scum meta. You'll have to forgive me at some point for believing it, when you posted about choosing people who would make a good final 5 lynchee, anticipating a lot of failure between now and then, and claiming a never-seen mafia vig in addition to a mafia team kill, while also admitting to crumbing that you might have been a vig earlier this round before you confirmed you were not one.

When did I ever claim that this is part of my scum meta? My scum meta is being towny as much as I can to be cleared and then slowly ride it out until lylo. I'd never see a reason to fake claim anything in copless games as I don't see the benefit... even as a counter claim that leaves me with a 50/50 who ppl believe in and as you've said previously: it's only good for one lynch. Why take this risk, just get townread and win this way. Maybe that's why I'm so agitated on this issue... because its never something I'd ever do as scum... even the crumbing itself, it puts a small spotlight on myself which is not something a mafia wants imo... not to mention that it would make the lategame difficult because the entire 'why are you still alive' line for which I usually get mislynched is even more pronounced if you essentially fake claimed a PR and make it to late.

The point about thinking ahead is something I guess you could scumread me for, not that it's correct but w/e. I don't see whats wrong with planning things out, if we win before we get to the later stage: cool. If we don't: we have a plan. If thats scummy, cool... if you lynch me for that similiar to the Fred thing above idc.


If I am not allowed to have legitimate suspicion on you after that, I shouldn't be playing this game. Frankly none of us should be.

Yes you can have suspicion. It's how you then used it to make such a specific case where (in my opinion at least) nothing really fits or makes sense for me to do as mafia and then parade it around made me see red... again I'm sorry for how I acted and that's highly unusual for me... guess I learned today to stay away from mafia games when having barely 3 hours of sleep :(.


That's all I have to say on that. I prefer these games stay civil, joking, the interplay between us meant to elicit entertaining reactions, not hurt feelings. If I've offended you by accusing you wrongly then it was not my intention.

I don't give a single fig about these games. I care about them to an extent as a hobby I enjoy a LOT, but if it results in people getting personally offended or upset in real life, it's not a game to me anymore.

After the game, my intention is that Slaan and Askthepizzaguy can still like each other. If I've failed on that then the game doesn't matter to me.

Of course we cann still like each other... again sorry for going overboard https://www.civforum.de/images/emo/i/hug.gif

[Slaan]

Also, you had Chox below GH for that upcoming day 2, which falls in line with the concerted attempt that Zack and GH had to push Chox day 2. Your post about your GH/Chox theory would further back this up



At the time I contested this theory.

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to prop up WIFOM.

2nd because that wasn't a move designed to save Chox. Chox was in no danger of being lynched, in fact the only ones really pushing him were Zack and GH, so it's clouding the game state implying there was two actual wagons. It also further increased the chances of the Chox lynch Day 2 so it did nothing to distract away from a scum teammate. You were playing the role of the "logical townie" to try and see if the Chox and GH are scum theory works but never was able to fully pursue it because distancing.

It's also interesting to not the places of GH and Chox on your post here. This seems to indicate you want to Lynch GH next phase but are willing to switch to Chox, but the post you make later is one that indicates Chox is your number one suspect in a tier by himself.

Idk how good my theory on this was, not too good considering Chox claim today... I stand behind my reasoning/thoughts at the time though. I would totally have lynched Chox over GH D2 for the simple reason that a good player such as GH would be a boon to have around longer to contribute in case we were wrong on his scumread. If we were wrong on Chox we'd loose a lynch but not much solving. It rarely looks good but I always prefer to go after the low hanging fruits as town because having them around lategame just causes headaches as low posters are notoriously hard to read in my experience...

[Slaan]

I can actually say my tinfoil hat theories and put my emotions into those cases and really try, and not worry about what if I'm wrong to an abnormal extent.

If the only cases I can make are the ones where the conclusion is obvious, consensus, or straightforward in a game with championship-caliber tacticians and strategists, I don't know what I'm friggen doing here.

Hm I think it's not entirely the case itself that drove me to make this post but the way you pushed it... 'the jig is up', 'that's gg', 'I've got him'... the way you portraited it as the absolute truth even though it's 100% false is what made me angry. I shouldnt have gotten angry but that's partly what pushed me... again sorry :(

[Slaan]

I would think, given the timing of Zack's death, that the ordering of my actions would be obvious.

Am I missing something? You gave the vigshot to pizza N2 and the doc to dp N3... doesnt explain what you did in N1?

[Slaan]

So caught up and heading to bed now. I'll do the rest of my reread tomorrow or smth when I find the motivation. If you want to lynch me go ahead, I won't take it personally or anything. You still have 3 lynches after that and I believe in you guys to clutch it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This crumbing to make it believable is never done this openly though in my experience? Not to mention I still don't know why I would put myself out there as mafia... maybe it's because I know my own mafia playstyle rather well I'm 100% certain that such a strategy is way outside my scumrange... there is hardly any benefit from it I can see... not to mention in a closed setting where I wouldnt even know if there was a town vig? It just makes no sense to me no matter how I twist and turn it...

You don't need to know if there's a town vigilante to fake being crumbing you have a vig.

The issue is not the town vig part. You keep focusing on this. At this point the only town vig in this game should have been my one shot I got from choxorn, because there's been only 1 night with an extra kill.

The issue was always you suggesting there was a mafia team kill, and a mafia night vigilante shot, with only 1 dead person.

A vanilla townie does not assume there being two scum kills when there's one visible.

A vanilla townie crumbing a possible vig target, as you've admitted to doing this game, crumbing you might have some sort of power role and repeatedly referencing vigs [most especially in the post where you claim the mafia team have a team kill and a vig, not to mention your multiple posts before that talking about if you had a shot], that is a person who could plausibly claim that there were two kills, only one visible, by suggesting they might have hit a bulletproof mafia or a scum doctored mafia or just been roleblocked or whatever, interference. A vanilla townie is unlikely to make such a claim, because it's a bit like fake claiming a guilty cop check as vanilla. It's lying and it's also without info, a fancy play. I don't assume people do this by default, I have to see them do it.

But the issue is, you were not claiming two kills in that post were town and mafia kills. You were claiming there was a mafia vig and a mafia team kill in that post, while suggesting a town vig should have been vigging elsewhere, or did. It's ambiguous.

But you still arrive at a 2 kill theory, with 1 visible, both controlled by scums, while being vanilla townie.

What makes a lot more sense is if you are suggesting you know or strongly suspect there's a scum vig in the game.

It's not intuitive to get such a meaning from that post, which is why everyone including me glossed over it even though I'd been seeing your crumbs at that point.

If you know or strongly suspect there's a scum vig in some game, you'd the town vigilante in that game most likely. That's the most common reason why a townie would suspect there's a scum vig. Say, a limited vig, like an odd or even night vigilante. Then, often times, the mafia has an odd or even night vigilante to match it, or a full vig. Often times when townies get a regular or semi-regular vig role, they're tipped off a bit about the setup. Usually the scums have extra kill power if the townies have any.

Now, you've since then hard claimed not to be a town vigilante and we don't appear to have one besides the inventor-like role's one shot.

But, if you were neither a vanilla townie (as a vanilla townie shouldn't be speculating on two scum kills when 1 is visible)

Nor are you a town vigilante (as you have claimed not to be and the kills suggest doesn't exist)

You could have done the above in this scenario.

You are the scum vig or have access to a special one shot, or an irregular vig of some kind.

In such a scenario, if you were crumbing that you might be a town one shot or limited vigilante (to claim in the event you get lynched one day) what helps sell such a claim is you suggesting who you might have targeted. In this case choxorn. Then his non-death becomes suspicious, and he's already under suspicion at the time, and as it happens, had lynched Logic and had been pushing back on Zack and GH both.

As such, he is a High Value Mislynch Target.

If you only have a limited vig at your disposal, and wish to eliminate or toss suspicion onto choxorn, and you have a couple of teammates alive who could really use a big fancy claim to make sure they live, there is some benefit to crumbing.

It gives you options.

Since it's a crumb that's very hypothetical, it's unlikely to be pushed on if you decide to never pursue the gambit. I often crumb stuff as vanilla townie or scum. I've seen lots of scums crumb powers they don't have. They don't necessarily have to hard claim them.

I'd be baffled if this is outside of your experience as well, so none of this should be as shocking as you describe it to be.


Arent you suggesting I'm the mafia vig that targeted Winston or you N1? If you don't think so then you going after my speculative posts makes even less sense because why as mafia would I even wonder if there were night kills against both you and Winston? And when I NK someone there goes a little more thought into it then just 'he isnt on my team'.

Yes, and why wouldn't both Winston and I get targeted on Night one?

The doctor can't cover both, and the mafia team just lost their strongman. Not only did we both look townie but we were both pressing hard onto the next potential scum flips, to some extent. Eliminating either of us gives the scums less of a narrative/control disadvantage.

As long as Winston and Pizza are alive and helping to direct lynches, the game goes badly. Getting one or both of us dead was essential.

Again, I don't see how either shot would be thoughtless, and in your own post, you suggested exactly those two names as the most likely targets. One having been targeted and dead, and then also me, for no reason that can be explained by being a vanilla townie.


I don't follow... so you agree that I'm no full vig I think? Because that would mean that I literally ran into a doc protection three times. Odd night vig? Would still not explain last night where I was the one being protected. So one shot vig... then again I don't understand why I'd ever use it N1.

Don't know if you could shoot twice as the last scum, and don't understand how definitely guaranteed hitting and killing one of Pizza/Winston or possibly even killing both if the town didn't have a doctor, but bulletproof role(s) instead, is so outlandish.

You keep dismissing these hypothetical situations as totally unreasonable, when they should be basic scummery 101.

If the town has a vig shot, for example, it's dangerous to hold onto a limited firepower shot for too long. You could die without making use of it. And as predictable as the game has been in retrospect, it was far from a lock at the time that you'd never be a suspect again or wouldn't take some flak for suggesting that Zack was town, or agreeing with Zack and GH that dp101 looked bad during the cfd event.

Town points come and go. I'd never be so silly as to use a limited shot I might have in an unpredictable game when we have clear absolutely must kill targets alive threatening live scums, is not a valid thinking process to me.








When did I ever claim that this is part of my scum meta? My scum meta is being towny as much as I can to be cleared and then slowly ride it out until lylo.

That's exactly what I was referring to. Hard bussing and looking supertownie. I even said the only way you could be scum this game is if you were playing a deliberately supertownie strategem. You hard bussed Logic, and then when it was GH's turn, you dutifully also shaded him all round. Wasn't a hard choice to make.

The harder choice was defending Zack, since he looked as bad as GH did to many people, but you said you didn't think he was scum, even though the behaviors GH displayed toward that end of day were identical.

One doesn't get more town credits than all the town credits, and you had enough by bussing Logic and shading GH. You didn't need to also push Zack. You could argue that choxorn and Manasi had to go next after GH (which you did) and defend Zack (which you also did).

When I mentioned this to you, you confirmed that this is how you'd play the game as a scumbag.

You are aware of this, so you're conflating two separate thoughts. Deliberately, as far as I can tell. I'm not writing run-on sentences and I've explained and re-explained my argument several times now. In each case, when you've responded, you have seemingly deliberately misunderstood the argument.

Now I can buy that on the technical details of 2 versus 3 claimed kills when 1 is visible. Misunderstandings are possible there. Less so when I'm talking about two very separate concepts, your admission of your scum meta (and you remember what you said, because you wrote it) and what I am saying about vig crumbing. Those are separate arguments you're conflating, and I've explained this too many times for you to be accidentally conflating them.

I really don't want to believe that when you get into a jam, your defense is simply harsh AtE and rudeness.

Most likely such behaviors come from frustrated townies, but that's a really gross thing to town read you for and I am still having many outstanding problems with your game.

Mainly, a vanilla townie does not claim that there was two kills on night one and names them, when one was visible.

I haven't seen that happen in my experience. I can't put you as a town read at this point because you never sufficiently explained how you could make such an odd speculation.

But I have to be honest, I don't care.

If you're town, then I feel sick to my stomach for being wrong, and then your reaction. If you're mafia, I feel gross for other reasons.

I tried looking into Monty as an alternative creeper into my town list. Outside of the uncleared low poster types, who could infiltrate my town.

I am not seeing it from dp or freddo.

Thread is hard to read, especially Monty's posts. My conclusion is only that it's possible. I know he has it in him to look amazingly townie.

He was, in spite of his great posts, on choxorn and arguing for a tie. That's as close to scummy as I can see from him. He's also defending you a bit today, while then ending up voting you.

But that's pretty thin. And I've lost a lot of willpower to press forward on anything controversial atp.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Am I missing something? You gave the vigshot to pizza N2 and the doc to dp N3... doesnt explain what you did in N1?

You're not thinking this out mechanically. Mechanics are my bag, I pretty much avoid playing role heavy games because it just becomes a trivial spreadsheet solve a lot.

Think, how would he give me a shot on night 2 and then I also have a chance to use it on night 2?

Everything he does is one phase behind when we get to use it. He's got to give it to us at night, then by end of night we have a thing.

We can't use it before we receive it.

[Fredwood]

Man I really don't want Slaan to be scum, I also don't want him to be town.

I think the inconsistencies are just too big to ignore for me, but I have never been able to adequately process emotions, I get beat by it all the time (not just in mafia games kek)

Man my empathy is in overdrive this game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Zack/GH pushing Monty before switching to dp in the cfd portion of the game could also have been distancing, as it's unlikely Monty was ever in serious danger and Zack and GH both knew they'd be looking kinda scummy after defending Logic all round.

Pushing against a fairly townie looking partner, while being guilty looking scums, without actually putting him in danger, is actually a plausible gambit for both of them.

That was the only other thing I saw in Monty's iso.

[Fredwood]

What Would Magnus Do?

Pout and throw water?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Will someone please iso Monty and tell me if I should still have him in my town.

He's really in my blind spot, and I can't keep re-reading this game. I haven't slept at all today, because this game is stressing me the :daisy: out.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Slaan (1): Montmorency,

Not voting (9): Choxorn, Fredwood, Xiahou, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo Slaan, Pizza,

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Montmorency]

Forgot to include Reinoe in blue.

And Kage.



3) Why the fuck would I ever vig Winston of all ppl in N1? I didnt have a read on him at

all at this point, I would've killed off one of my townreads so I could develop Winston

however I saw fit. Why kill of a null from my pile instead of Kage of dp? Makes no sense
4) What the fucking fuck did I do other than that? So I'm a vig... ok. Not a regular vig,

no additional kills N2 or N3. Odd night vig? But then I'd have to have vigged myself last

night... that doesnt quite seem likely. One shot vig? Then why _THE FUCK_ would I vig in

N1? I was in zero danger, I was part of the town core. Keep it holstered, play the game

quietly etc etc... you know, what I'd have done if I was actual part of mafia. Why waste it

N1 on Winston?

This entire case is Pizza getting unsecure because Manasi didnt work out, getting called

out for it and now and needing to find someone he misread previously to push today to

cement his hero image... which will only take a deeper dive after he mislynched me over

this bullshit case.



To be fair, at that point you weren't solo yet and Zack/GH killing Winston is pretty

plausible from their meta and IIRC they were backed into town-reading him by the end of D1

or before.


It has had its ups though, Monty is now secured in my town pile. He stood up for me

early and asked the correct questions, as mafia he could've just been happy pizza threw out

one of his cores... (though his vote on me in the end doesnt look too good.. why make that

if he wants to reconsider.......... >_>)


It makes it harder for Pizza to back down on a whim, it encourages you to confront the

issue (though I'm not sure how the logic can be challenged internally or what would change

Pizza's mind),and establishes the wagon for others' reactions to be measured.



Also, you had Chox below GH for that upcoming day 2, which falls

in line with the concerted attempt that Zack and GH had to push Chox day 2. Your post

about your GH/Chox theory would further back this up

At the time I contested this theory.

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to

prop up WIFOM.

2nd because that wasn't a move designed to save Chox. Chox was in no danger of being

lynched, in fact the only ones really pushing him were Zack and GH, so it's clouding the

game state implying there was two actual wagons. It also further increased the chances of

the Chox lynch Day 2 so it did nothing to distract away from a scum teammate. You were

playing the role of the "logical townie" to try and see if the Chox and GH are scum theory

works but never was able to fully pursue it because distancing.

It's also interesting to not the places of GH and Chox on your post here. This seems to

indicate you want to Lynch GH next phase but are willing to switch to Chox, but the post

you make later is one that indicates Chox is your number one suspect in a tier by himself.



Oh crap, I quoted that earlier today but I read it as "always lynch [GH] over Chox

tomorrow"; it's the opposite. It is totally consistent with an intent, at least during N1,

to deflect from GH.

The best counter then is, why would Slaan's partners drop the ball on him? Instant

demoralization? I suppose Pizza would say the putative failed Mafia vig would do that to

them, but would they really have expected Pizza to be unprotected with that arrangement of

PRs? To not even try and leave Slaan hanging?

Re: Choxorn wagon D1, given the late reveal I assume it was an attempt to latch onto a

(nother) dark-horse, low-post wagon and hope it gained traction. With 5 votes at one point

it did present a challenge, or at least the only plausible alternative to, the Logic wagon.

This could be spew for Barto, but on the other hand as I said they didn't try for very hard

or very long to push Barto.

[Montmorency]

A vanilla townie does not assume there being two scum kills when there's one visible.


I'm still not really familiar with the roles you guys use as my homeforum has a certain set im meta with fixed roles that just get play all the time (one time doc that gets told the NK each night, 2x oneshot vig, cop) so I felt/feel like in dark waters when it comes to closed games such as this....

Maybe he was just really primed from experience to look for roles, even if there wasn't direct or indirect evidence for them yet. I'm pretty sure I've also been suspected for going overboard with complicated speculation.

Leaving aside Slaan's play and interactions, or his response to your case (which I can't help but find genuine), is the whole case against him that single D2 "night kills" paragraph?

If the case hinges on that single point, and it's such a complex and unique point, then...

You make your case, I struggle with the premise, but other townie people acknowledge or even approve the premise, so it could be a legit case. Slaan's reaction is justifiably (or relatably) confused, and voluble and rejects the premise, but that premise is still hanging, either you believe in it or not and nothing Slaan can do either way changes it's role - it's unfalsifiable because any reaction could be defined as WIFOM. How is this resolvable?

Well, let's look at this gamestate. If we lynch Slaan we are breaking POE, which you thought inadvisable earlier and I encouraged planning for. It would be a really bad decision if it's wrong, or it could be the only thing that solves the game. We are already in bedlam, and town is in danger of losing the initiative you emphasized N1 when forming your faction tents and POE.

But now, whether or not we lynch Slaan, he's kind of poisoned in that if he survives to LYLO there remains at least a seed of suspicion...

I don't think you can lynch Slaan today without planning ahead the entire game, with several different paths or contingencies.

More people other than Pizza need to weigh in on the above, though of course Pizza does as well.



I tried looking into Monty as an alternative creeper into my town list. Outside of the uncleared low poster types, who could infiltrate my town.

I am not seeing it from dp or freddo.

Thread is hard to read, especially Monty's posts. My conclusion is only that it's possible. I know he has it in him to look amazingly townie.

He was, in spite of his great posts, on choxorn and arguing for a tie. That's as close to scummy as I can see from him. He's also defending you a bit today, while then ending up voting you.

But that's pretty thin. And I've lost a lot of willpower to press forward on anything controversial atp.

Slaan was the first to challenge me on the tie. Multi-wagons are usually better than single consensus wagons in pressuring Mafia, right? It seemed like a good idea at the time. The bit that's mechanically "wrong" is verbally encouraging it rather than analyzing the existing fact of it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you typing these up in Word or Wordpad, and getting double spaced?

The formatting of that post is strange.

Posting via phone maybe.

[Montmorency]

Are you typing these up in Word or Wordpad, and getting double spaced?

The formatting of that post is strange.

Posting via phone maybe.

From time to time the site eats posts, so I did that one mostly in Notepad.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok. I get it.

The site was wonky for me earlier today as well.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't think you can lynch Slaan today without planning ahead the entire game, with several different paths or contingencies.

Explain the reasoning behind this idea.

KISS principle applies here. Unless we're planning on lynching Fredwood or dp101 at some point, or choxorn or me, we went from a locked position to a near lock.

Near lock means we still win most of the time. The mafia has to be exactly the wrong person and everyone needs to let them go for them to win.

I ended up with like 10 townies outside of choxorn, and choxorn makes 11. Why can I not afford to kick out one or two "locks" when their interactions with the dead scums look incriminating, why does it need excessive planning.

This is part of why I suspected Slaan in the first place. Since when do we absolutely have to plan out failure until final 3?

If we're dead we're not influencing those lynches anyway, only the survivors will.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I ended up with like 10 townies outside of choxorn, and choxorn makes 11.

At the time, before the recent deaths.

I can't be bothered to go back and actually count, but from where I sit, the don't lynch people still outnumber the do lynch pile.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I reread dp again just in case I got snowed by his earlier work. If he's scum here then I cannot catch him. It's flawless. I could see a distancing motive from Zack and GH, but the same principle applies to choxorn. You have to just assume the outcome, it's not possible to reach it decisively. If I'm going to play that way I should skip 18 hours of analysis today and just flip coins.

Fredwood is similarly a picture of perfection, with less likelihood of distancing tactics from GH and Zack. The passive aggression directed at him seemed real.

Choxorn lock.

Me lock.

That's 4 locks we don't lynch today, and 6 remainders.

If I find one townie and it's correct, and the above are correct, the game is still locked.

I even called for the town doctor to hard claim, if we have one, that locks the game as well.

We lynch outside of the 5 locks and it should be a win.

Looks like we'll end up in a final 4 if it comes to that, and from your own perspective Monty, the game should be locked, because you're not in the above pile at present.

Outside is Csargo, Barto, you, Cuth, Slaan, and Xiahou.

I just feel like we should be able to find a townie in this pile and lock things away. I have strong bets on several of them.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Do you get how calling for the tie is like trying to artificially add to the competing wagon on day one and why it looks incriminating to me, Monty?

[Montmorency]

Explain the reasoning behind this idea.

KISS principle applies here. Unless we're planning on lynching Fredwood or dp101 at some point, or choxorn or me, we went from a locked position to a near lock.

Near lock means we still win most of the time. The mafia has to be exactly the wrong person and everyone needs to let them go for them to win.

I ended up with like 10 townies outside of choxorn, and choxorn makes 11. Why can I not afford to kick out one or two "locks" when their interactions with the dead scums look incriminating, why does it need excessive planning.

This is part of why I suspected Slaan in the first place. Since when do we absolutely have to plan out failure until final 3?

If we're dead we're not influencing those lynches anyway, only the survivors will.

Alright, assume no new planning - summarize what the game looks like from there on.

It seems to me that every time the game doesn't end with a lynch, we will have to rewrite the landscape. Each time.

Whether it's a game with 1 lock or 2 locks or more, we always have had to plan ahead eventually - because the game isn't over.

Once it's over, there's no more planning to be had.

?


At the time, before the recent deaths.

I can't be bothered to go back and actually count, but from where I sit, the don't lynch people still outnumber the do lynch pile.

Have you calculated the effect of night kills?


I reread dp again just in case I got snowed by his earlier work. If he's scum here then I cannot catch him. It's flawless. I could see a distancing motive from Zack and GH, but the same principle applies to choxorn. You have to just assume the outcome, it's not possible to reach it decisively. If I'm going to play that way I should skip 18 hours of analysis today and just flip coins.

Fredwood is similarly a picture of perfection, with less likelihood of distancing tactics from GH and Zack. The passive aggression directed at him seemed real.

Choxorn lock.

Me lock.

That's 4 locks we don't lynch today, and 6 remainders.

If I find one townie and it's correct, and the above are correct, the game is still locked.

I even called for the town doctor to hard claim, if we have one, that locks the game as well.

We lynch outside of the 5 locks and it should be a win.

Looks like we'll end up in a final 4 if it comes to that, and from your own perspective Monty, the game should be locked, because you're not in the above pile at present.

Outside is Csargo, Barto, you, Cuth, Slaan, and Xiahou.

I just feel like we should be able to find a townie in this pile and lock things away. I have strong bets on several of them.

To be clear, even if at the moment you're not moving to re-assess a set of locks, why shouldn't the non-locks (of the present spread) receive planning?

I'll grant you that Slaan leaving the locks isn't a special circumstance as long as Choxorn is replacing him, but you've already proven that re-assessment and attrition is inevitable.

Here's what the schema I'm hinting at could look like (it involves multiple projected futures:


Lock Pile 1
A
B
C
D
Lynch Pile 1
E
F
G
H
I
J
Projected Lynches 1
.....


Lock Pile 2
B
D
H
J
Lynch Pile 2
A
C
E
F
G
I
Projected Lynches 2
.....

Lock Pile ...

[Montmorency]

Do you get how calling for the tie is like trying to artificially add to the competing wagon on day one and why it looks incriminating to me, Monty?

Yes, I admitted that to Slaan N1. Having a tie was the desired state, and I didn't think through how I was proposing for it to come about.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Have you calculated the effect of night kills?

Not properly. I was thinking it's basically 5-4 since we can lynch inside the five not in the town circle easily, but that's a day late and a dollar short. It's still 4-4 come morning unless a doctor saves us. Eventually that leads to a 2-2.

Even numbered remaining people screws with the calculations.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it ended in a 2-1 scenario that's game, but it's a coin toss instead.

[Csargo]

Not lock town? This is a travesty!

[Montmorency]

Standard 2 deaths per round. 4 lynches, 3 kills.

Predict only 1/4 locked survives to LYLO.


Choxorn
DP
Fred
Pizza



Csargo
Cuth
El Barto
Monty
Slaan
Xiahou




10: Slaan
8: Barto
6: Xiahou
4: Monty/Csargo/Cuth

But there's nothing new here. Actually, this is more arbitrary than I imagined. I can't really switch around people in the Lock/Lynch piles, or do so contingent on future lynches, because there's no new flips to distinguish lynches (effectively all town until game ends). No one can be cleared or spewed anymore (without role claims) because there are no more Mafia partners to lynch. I can't predict what new information changes the variables, so it becomes random if you make plans that deviate from Pizza's OG stable.

OK I was somewhat mistaken. You really do have to take it day by day. :shrug:

[Fredwood]

Will someone please iso Monty and tell me if I should still have him in my town.

He's really in my blind spot, and I can't keep re-reading this game. I haven't slept at all today, because this game is stressing me the :daisy: out.

I'm in the middle of it and I'm pretty much where I was before, he kind of feels villa but has nothing that means he can't be bad and a few things that mean he could.

I keep coming back to Slaan's placement of him. If Town Slaan is expanding POE in order to make sure he's not getting blindsided, there's nothing in Monty's Day 1 to lock clear him and I certainly don't see anything that means he couldn't be partners with Zack.

However there is some concern
#98 #170 is some suss on Zack. Accuses him of buddying DP, and also calls Zack for saying one thing but doing another.

#153 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761083&viewfull=1#post2053761083) Votes Zack, but not in fully in a suss tone kind of egging him and Winston on. So again looks good, but not as good as it could be

#830 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762010&viewfull=1#post2053762010) looks both bad and good at the same time, it's a hard suss backed up by a case, but he backs of and leaves it for later. The game state means it makes sense as either alignment, at least to me.

#808 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761975&viewfull=1#post2053761975) Looks interesting in retrospect, not really sure what to do with it.

#919 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762122&viewfull=1#post2053762122) Unvotes Zack and then votes Chox. Nothing really important here I guess other then he's the first to vote Chox I think, I can't tell, but he said himself he initiated the Chox wagon later. Also, wouldn't push Zack against Logic but willing to push Chox against the Logic.

#1017 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762343&highlight=#post2053762343). Looks the worst from day one in retrospect. I think you called Slaan or Logic out for the tying the wagon stuff, when Monty was for it as well. Slaan, interestingly enough, susses the hell out of Monty for this in #1025 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762338&viewfull=1#post2053762338).

It's pre associating Logic and Chox. However now we know a Chox lynch day 1 means Logic is the only possible lynch day 2. Could be seen as at least trying to buy a day to get the strongarm off. It's problematic for sure, but I have made ill-conceived posts as villa before, but I'm not that good of a player.

#1240 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762688&viewfull=1#post2053762688) This was a post I remember and thought it originally looked good. Loses a bit with the last sentence. Says That it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum (with the qualifier of tentative conclusion...I'm being pedantic but you don't tentatively state an absolute like that /end English rant)

#1245 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762688&viewfull=1#post2053762688) I still like this post, but a case could be made for prearguing suss.

There's another post, but for some reason my search of him returned only 4 pages, I might have to iso me to find what bugged me at the time because the meat of the post just lost me and I believe I sad something at the time.

Again This is maybe a bit confbias, but I don't know why Town Slaan would make up reads. He forgot his read on Winston, he forgot his hard suss on Monty, but now is lock clearing him, even though Monty has been pretty much in the same boat in my eyes since N1 for the last post I pointed to. In addition the F5 terminology when referring to Monty feels clunky AF. Am I crazy for thinking he wants a F3 with him, Monty and Bart?

I will say my Monty read has taken a bit of a hit (interesting that what I railed on Slaan today for is now what I feel like I'm doing with Monty). I don't really know now, I may have done the ISO all wrong but I did start out viewing his suss of Zack as a GL but devolved into looking for scummy behavior. I can see elements of crafty wolf in his day 1, but Slaan's day 4 has felt so bad that I can't really fully read Monty with Slaan around and I still think I'll be confused after. Then at the same time this whole day has been pretty much me, you, slaan and monty going back and forth, with the Chox bomb dropped in and a lot of passive observation by most everyone else in the thread.

Sigh. I'm a liar I guess there was more then one way I consider voting for Bart or Chox today. At this point I want to be the lynch today.

[Fredwood]

Also that took a lot effin longer then I thought.

[Montmorency]

#1240 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762688&viewfull=1#post2053762688) This was a post I remember and thought it originally looked good. Loses a bit with the last sentence. Says That it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum (with the qualifier of tentative conclusion...I'm being pedantic but you don't tentatively state an absolute like that /end English rant)


That's not quite what I said.


So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum.

[Fredwood]

That's not quite what I said.

One and only one of these is scum? You didn't say that?

[Montmorency]

One and only one of these is scum? You didn't say that?

I didn't say "it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum", either literally or in implication. I meant given what I read my prediction was that they were not paired. This does not mean that it is impossible for them to be paired.

[Fredwood]

#1649 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053763404&viewfull=1#post2053763404) Is the post I was referring to thinking, that's a lot of words without a lot of anything that makes sense to me.

He does address it later, but I was too busy getting bothered by Slaan to really notice.

It's interesting because from a point of view GH/Zack and Monty could be seen as controlled distancing each other. So lol why would scum say "Hey look for something that could paint me in a bad light" but loleasycreditlol.

[Fredwood]

I didn't say "it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum", either literally or in implication. I meant given what I read my prediction was that they were not paired. This does not mean that it is impossible for them to be paired.

I know, I was railing on your use of tentative with an absolute statement, I said as much that it was pedantic when you're saying I don't think they could be teammates. I mean I said as much myself at the time. The problem is that the way you state it feels more demonstrative then the way I did.

[Montmorency]

#1649 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053763404&viewfull=1#post2053763404) Is the post I was referring to thinking, that's a lot of words without a lot of anything that makes sense to me.

He does address it later, but I was too busy getting bothered by Slaan to really notice.

It's interesting because from a point of view GH/Zack and Monty could be seen as controlled distancing each other. So lol why would scum say "Hey look for something that could paint me in a bad light" but loleasycreditlol.

As long as you're reading me, give me your best shot.


I was railing on your use of tentative with an absolute statement

That's how it's typically used. You don't need to tentatively conclude that someone "might" be scum, because that's redundant.

[Fredwood]

As long as you're reading me, give me your best shot.



That's how it's typically used. You don't need to tentatively conclude that someone "might" be scum, because that's redundant.

Lol I'm nitpicking but I'm saying you shouldn't have said that at all, during the ISO I got to your wall and I had to stop and read it twice because the construction is more assertive then the wishy-washy EHHHH I don't think Zack could be scum with GH. Also you weren't implying "might" you were implying "not likely".

As far as reading you, I said where I'm at, I don't think I can seriously consider you right now with Slaan around. I've seen town do the things that bothered me during my ISO of you. I've never seen town forget demonstratively stated reads they've had.

Basically, I wouldn't have ISO'd if Pizza didn't ask, and I feel very conflicted about the Slaan flip. He's my biggest scum read, but I just really don't want him to be scum. Part of it is the response to legit issues with him, cus I do that often as town, but his initial response to pressure was really bad.

shrug

[Montmorency]

Lol I'm nitpicking but I'm saying you shouldn't have said that at all, during the ISO I got to your wall and I had to stop and read it twice because the construction is more assertive then the wishy-washy EHHHH I don't think Zack could be scum with GH. Also you weren't implying "might" you were implying "not likely".

I think it's clearer if you understand the GH ISO on why GH is scummy as separate from, though informing, the interaction analysis with Zack.

I don't know how to resolve Slaan; I've read his responses better than you or Pizza, but he may or may not be mechanically compromised.

[Fredwood]

I think it's clearer if you understand the GH ISO on why GH is scummy as separate from, though informing, the interaction analysis with Zack.

I don't know how to resolve Slaan; I've read his responses better than you or Pizza, but he may or may not be mechanically compromised.

If you're reading him better talk me down on the inconsistency or straight up forgetfulness of his reads. It's sticking in my craw right now. His response is he was just parroting Pizza, I never got the impression that that was something he'd do when I've seen him town before. Especially not to the point where he forgets the reads. Maybe I'm being too much of a stickler about it because I just remember my reads as either alignment so it might be projection or too much to expect everyone else does the same.

[El Barto]

Barto is in the POE and he's who I would have lynched today if Slaan's POE didn't look overly calculated.
What?

[Xiahou]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong. :stare:

[El Barto]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong. :stare:
I might have missed something, but why are you voting for him?

[Csargo]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong. :stare:

Sup?

[Xiahou]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duRoyOX8VSw

[Csargo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duRoyOX8VSw

https://i.imgur.com/LhOHU.gif

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Slaan (1): Montmorency,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,

Not voting (8): Choxorn, Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo Slaan, Pizza,

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Sooh]

http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/files/2013/10/FieldCricket.png

[Slaan]

Mainly, a vanilla townie does not claim that there was two kills on night one and names them, when one was visible.

I haven't seen that happen in my experience. I can't put you as a town read at this point because you never sufficiently explained how you could make such an odd speculation.

I havent ever seen a wolf anouncing his doc blocked night vig in thread for no reason.... but yea that appears to be the linchpin in your case against me and I can't defend from that. I was merely blindly speculating on possibilities and what else could've happened during the night (mainly because I thought the Winston kill to be odd but w/e) without giving it much thought, but that will become obvious after I flip or the game ends. Will stop defending myself overall from this as I don't see it going anywhere, if you think that I would make such a blunder then lynching me is the correct play for you and I can't fault you for that (doesnt change the fact that I think the case to be bad though but w/e, it's not like we have any slam dunk cases left anyway).

I will now pick up where I left off when rereading and see if I can get through the rest before EoD.

[Slaan]

You're not thinking this out mechanically. Mechanics are my bag, I pretty much avoid playing role heavy games because it just becomes a trivial spreadsheet solve a lot.

Think, how would he give me a shot on night 2 and then I also have a chance to use it on night 2?

Everything he does is one phase behind when we get to use it. He's got to give it to us at night, then by end of night we have a thing.

We can't use it before we receive it.

I figured it was given out the same night as it was used... or maybe the day before. Considering you wished for the vig during D2 iirc and then received it N2.. duno how this kind of role is handled though with such long nights, on my homesite the night is usually only one or two hours and everyone is kinda expect to be there for it when they have actions or tell the host before hand etc etc, having a night action that processes the following night is not something I've ever seen I think... not that it matters.

[Slaan]

Maybe he was just really primed from experience to look for roles, even if there wasn't direct or indirect evidence for them yet. I'm pretty sure I've also been suspected for going overboard with complicated speculation.

Leaving aside Slaan's play and interactions, or his response to your case (which I can't help but find genuine), is the whole case against him that single D2 "night kills" paragraph?

If the case hinges on that single point, and it's such a complex and unique point, then...

You make your case, I struggle with the premise, but other townie people acknowledge or even approve the premise, so it could be a legit case. Slaan's reaction is justifiably (or relatably) confused, and voluble and rejects the premise, but that premise is still hanging, either you believe in it or not and nothing Slaan can do either way changes it's role - it's unfalsifiable because any reaction could be defined as WIFOM. How is this resolvable?

Well, let's look at this gamestate. If we lynch Slaan we are breaking POE, which you thought inadvisable earlier and I encouraged planning for. It would be a really bad decision if it's wrong, or it could be the only thing that solves the game. We are already in bedlam, and town is in danger of losing the initiative you emphasized N1 when forming your faction tents and POE.

But now, whether or not we lynch Slaan, he's kind of poisoned in that if he survives to LYLO there remains at least a seed of suspicion...

I don't think you can lynch Slaan today without planning ahead the entire game, with several different paths or contingencies.

More people other than Pizza need to weigh in on the above, though of course Pizza does as well.

Perfect post. Though I think I'm being also suspected for the exact planning you are now proposing when giving a list and order of ppl I'd want to lynch (and also floated the idea that I wasnt sure about you and I'd consider lynching you around F5 or smth) because planning apparently means expecting mislynches which is somehow wolfy or smth, not quite sure myself on that one but I was accused something like that.

[Slaan]

As far as reading you, I said where I'm at, I don't think I can seriously consider you right now with Slaan around. I've seen town do the things that bothered me during my ISO of you. I've never seen town forget demonstratively stated reads they've had.

This is also a read that's weird to me. Especially as mafia I'd be careful on how my reads progress and make sure everything fits neatly together... just look at my readlists from the orchestrated chaos game:

Day 1 part1 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1561451#post1561451)
Day 1 part2 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1562187#post1562187)
Day 2 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1572208&viewfull=1#post1572208)
Day 3 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1572208&viewfull=1#post1572208)
Day 4 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1578761&viewfull=1#post1578761)

I don't forget reads as mafia.. and I don't make them up unless I can explain how I got there. As towny here on the the other hand I have other things on my mind and don't pay so much attention to my progression but why would I, got nothing to hide... which is probably not a good thing but I can't invest the energy over this long period of times lacking the motivation I'd have as mafia (I much prefer playing as scum...). In addition I had a hard work week, hosted a mafia game on my homesite (currently still running) and other private stuff going on so yea, me adopting someone elses reads whom I trust and then forgetting about it because it wasnt really my read is just something that happens apparently.

I mean I know that that's what happened, don't know if I can make you believe me.... or if it makes any difference as I doubt anyone would trust me come F3 or smth so might as well resolve me today if that clears other stuff up.

That being said I'm getting an uncomfortable feeling from Fred... why does he have problem in reading Monty as long as I'm around? Doesnt matter what my affiliation is, as either I'm scum then the game ends when I'm lynched or I'm town in which case the game proceeds... so they only way it makes sense to look at monty should be under the assumption that I'm town. Feels like he's setting up Monty to be another lynch candidate after I flip... not to mention that I feel his play is different from his wild west game. Feels way more aggressive here.. maybe that's only because I'm on the receiving end though (or because he was under fire in the WW game..).

[Slaan]

reinoe

I'm somewhere around here right now:

Zack
Kage
Monty

Dp101
reinoe
Slaan
Logic
Winston
ATPG

---town line---

Csargo
Xiahou
Cuth
Fredwood
El Barto

Choxorn
Manasi

~~~~~~

Zack is obvious town, Kage I already talked about, Monty seems like usual Monty.

The people in the next best slot all are either matching their town meta or are otherwise helping push the gamestate along in a way I consider to be townie.

Xiahou I think might be town just off the two post reads but I'm not arrogant enough to move him up a tier for that. I don't really have a read on Csargo and Cuth is sort of improving for me since I voted him early on in the phase as he gets more engaged, but he's not there yet. Fredwood I need to take another look at now that we've had some distance from our interaction yesterday and how it went down.

I think the last quoted paragraph (there was a bit more in regards to Chox after that which I removed cuz w/e) has the last wolf in it... and I find the way the referes to all of them kinda scummy lol.
- Xiahou being townread off two posts even though Xiahou voted Zack who GH had as his top towny seems awfully forced
- Csargo.. not having a read on him (even though he had way more posts than Xiahou) and still mention him? He isnt mentioning Barto or Manasi who were also below his town line
- The way the emphazised that he voted on Cuth previously... reminding us that he bussed a mafia there?
- Fredwood... the weakest read of all but couldnt laugh when I read 'distance' here.
- Barto for not being mentioned I guess. But he also didnt mention Manasi or the entire non-top3 townies townpile.

[Slaan]

The Logic lynch was never in doubt from very, very early in this game.

Refusal to move off. Resistance to counters.

If he's town, wasted 72 hours.

If he's a wolf, he was bussed into the ground.

I love this. In the game I'm currently hosting (... taking a risk in saying this but I highly doubt any of the players of this german speaking forum are around here and reading this mafia game ^^) there was a strong wagon D1 on a towny and mafia then went in the thread after the flip and said 'well there was 100% at least one wolf on this wagon!'.. which there wasnt. Zack should also know that the first one attacked for being busser here would be Csargo, the only one on the Logic wagon I'm still iffy about, would be the #1 suspect for it. Considering how much energy he invested in saving Logic I doubt he'd do that to his fellow buddy. I think this looks good for Csargo (see, I'm not using 'lock town' or 'clearing' anymore -.- ;))

[Slaan]

Strong feelings? I acknowledged for half a day that Pizza's case on Logic was solid. I never expected the Chox wagon to blow up.

I did care about EOD.

Ugh that post feels baaad. Never expected for the Chox wagon to blow up but the Chox wagon was in the lead at some point (6 to 5).. and the way he cared about the EoD was also rather aritificial with the proposed tie and preflip wagonomics... only thing good looking here is that was in response to Zack sussing him. Monty being mafia would also mean that all four mafia were on Chox at some point which doesnt seem all that likely.. in addition to him defending me today...

[Montmorency]

I havent ever seen a wolf anouncing his doc blocked night vig in thread for no reason.... but yea that appears to be the linchpin in your case against me and I can't defend from that. I was merely blindly speculating on possibilities and what else could've happened during the night (mainly because I thought the Winston kill to be odd but w/e) without giving it much thought, but that will become obvious after I flip or the game ends. Will stop defending myself overall from this as I don't see it going anywhere, if you think that I would make such a blunder then lynching me is the correct play for you and I can't fault you for that (doesnt change the fact that I think the case to be bad though but w/e, it's not like we have any slam dunk cases left anyway).

I will now pick up where I left off when rereading and see if I can get through the rest before EoD.

Askthepizzaguy

If there is a town doctor, and Slaan talked about 3 killing powers in the game, and he did it because he is a Mafia vig that failed to kill you or whoever N1, and he was setting the stage to make claims about role actions later in the game to frame Choxorn, protect teammates, or clear himself, then why hasn't a town doctor come forward to confirm a N1 protection? No point hiding since claiming, "I protected Pizza N1" seals the case and the game surely ends with lynching Slaan. OTOH, silence suggests either that the case on Slaan is wrong, or there is no town doctor, which causes to weaken the other assumptions of the case against Slaan.

Unvote: Slaan

Vote: Barto



That being said I'm getting an uncomfortable feeling from Fred... why does he have problem in reading Monty as long as I'm around? Doesnt matter what my affiliation is, as either I'm scum then the game ends when I'm lynched or I'm town in which case the game proceeds... so they only way it makes sense to look at monty should be under the assumption that I'm town.

Well, he should. As long as he's doing a critical ISO, best to get everything coherent in one sitting.


Ugh that post feels baaad. Never expected for the Chox wagon to blow up but the Chox wagon was in the lead at some point (6 to 5).. and the way he cared about the EoD was also rather aritificial with the proposed tie and preflip wagonomics... only thing good looking here is that was in response to Zack sussing him. Monty being mafia would also mean that all four mafia were on Chox at some point which doesnt seem all that likely.. in addition to him defending me today...

It was never in the lead. I started it because the case against Choxorn at the time was better than the one against other low-posters. GH and Zack joined almost immediately, then Reinoe and Logic self-pres. Winston was a pressure-voter and returned to Logic once the wagons got close.

I didn't present it as a lynch that had to happen over Logic's, and my response to Zack (1) pointed out that my not pushing Choxorn (2) as the alternative to Logic did not mean I didn't care about EOD (3). That's the sequence of propositions.

[Slaan]

Not sure about your doc point, that would only be correct if the doc received information that his protect was succesful (which there is no way that happened). If he just protected pizza then that doesnt make me as scum imo because it makes no difference as I'm not vig and I didnt shoot at pizza... only thing that would tell us is that pizzas theory isnt 100% wrong (any other protect would make that clear).

Also: Here you have the Chox wagon being in the lead:


Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (5): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

El Barto (1): Csargo

Choxorn (6): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Fredwood]

Perfect post. Though I think I'm being also suspected for the exact planning you are now proposing when giving a list and order of ppl I'd want to lynch (and also floated the idea that I wasnt sure about you and I'd consider lynching you around F5 or smth) because planning apparently means expecting mislynches which is somehow wolfy or smth, not quite sure myself on that one but I was accused something like that.

Because you weren't proposing to break POE and still planning out the lynches. We are now considering breaking the POE.

[Slaan]

If he’s scum, he did nothing but tunnel his buddies all day. I don’t think that scum ever leaves him alive for wifom purposes because there’s no one alive who would (or at least should) tinfoil him. At this point I’m thinking either doc save (and there’s some other source of KP that killed Winston), redirector, or Pizza is horrifically wrong on something that winston was right on.

Ugh dp don't do this... We now know that Zack and GH were also wolves but at the time only knew of Logic for sure... then why say he did nothing but tunnel buddies as in more than one at this point. Am I crazy or is this a slip? If it was from anyone else I'd hard push here but the rest of dp looks sooo goood...

[Slaan]

Because you weren't proposing to break POE and still planning out the lynches. We are now considering breaking the POE.

I what now? I have my own PoE and posted it and planned it out (well sorta, didnt really count the lynched we had...).

[Fredwood]

This is also a read that's weird to me. Especially as mafia I'd be careful on how my reads progress and make sure everything fits neatly together... just look at my readlists from the orchestrated chaos game:

Day 1 part1 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1561451#post1561451)
Day 1 part2 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1562187#post1562187)
Day 2 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1572208&viewfull=1#post1572208)
Day 3 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1572208&viewfull=1#post1572208)
Day 4 (http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/11649-Orchestrated-Chaos?p=1578761&viewfull=1#post1578761)

I don't forget reads as mafia.. and I don't make them up unless I can explain how I got there. As towny here on the the other hand I have other things on my mind and don't pay so much attention to my progression but why would I, got nothing to hide... which is probably not a good thing but I can't invest the energy over this long period of times lacking the motivation I'd have as mafia (I much prefer playing as scum...). In addition I had a hard work week, hosted a mafia game on my homesite (currently still running) and other private stuff going on so yea, me adopting someone elses reads whom I trust and then forgetting about it because it wasnt really my read is just something that happens apparently.

I mean I know that that's what happened, don't know if I can make you believe me.... or if it makes any difference as I doubt anyone would trust me come F3 or smth so might as well resolve me today if that clears other stuff up.

That being said I'm getting an uncomfortable feeling from Fred... why does he have problem in reading Monty as long as I'm around? Doesnt matter what my affiliation is, as either I'm scum then the game ends when I'm lynched or I'm town in which case the game proceeds... so they only way it makes sense to look at monty should be under the assumption that I'm town. Feels like he's setting up Monty to be another lynch candidate after I flip... not to mention that I feel his play is different from his wild west game. Feels way more aggressive here.. maybe that's only because I'm on the receiving end though (or because he was under fire in the WW game..).

Pizza literally requested someone else to ISO monty because he needed fresh eyes. He has no reason to listen to you, Monty isn't going to do it, Bart is isn't even reading the thread. So I mean I guess I should have ignored him. In the end I'm pretty much where I was at the beginning of the phase with Monty just with more specifics, I'm not going into where I'd Lynch Monty because I don't know, I think he's town at the moment. I don't have him unlynchable, or lock, I never did.

[Montmorency]

Not sure about your doc point, that would only be correct if the doc received information that his protect was succesful (which there is no way that happened). If he just protected pizza then that doesnt make me as scum imo because it makes no difference as I'm not vig and I didnt shoot at pizza... only thing that would tell us is that pizzas theory isnt 100% wrong (any other protect would make that clear).

Also: Here you have the Chox wagon being in the lead:

A doctor claim would support the existence of a Mafia vig, and so Pizza's mechanical case against you. It's not 100%, but it's pretty strong, in that case.


Vote: Logic

For more than 12 hours, the wagon had 2 votes, then after GH made #3 in just a couple hours it reached its peak of 6. Half an hour after Logic pushed Choxorn past his own wagon, Winston switched.

[Slaan]

Pizza literally requested someone else to ISO monty because he needed fresh eyes. He has no reason to listen to you, Monty isn't going to do it, Bart is isn't even reading the thread. So I mean I guess I should have ignored him. In the end I'm pretty much where I was at the beginning of the phase with Monty just with more specifics, I'm not going into where I'd Lynch Monty because I don't know, I think he's town at the moment. I don't have him unlynchable, or lock, I never did.

I wasnt objecting to you ISOing him or even the points you made, it's the way you didnt want to place him... the reason being essentially because I'm around. You said in your ISO of monty Post #1896 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053763752&viewfull=1#post2053763752) that your read has taken a hit and you see crafty wolf in his day and now he's town again.. the fact that you mention me in this ISO 3 times is also weird to me.... though tbh I don't know how to place that. Guess its simliar to the way you suss that I find this progression and reasoning bad but I also somehow don't see this coming from a mafia who'd have a firmer opinion and not flip flap like that....

[Slaan]

A doctor claim would support the existence of a Mafia vig, and so Pizza's mechanical case against you. It's not 100%, but it's pretty strong, in that case.

Ok dumb question: Wouldnt a doc also protect from mafia faction kill? (thats how it works on my homeboard...) or does it only protect against vigs?


For more than 12 hours, the wagon had 2 votes, then after GH made #3 in just a couple hours it reached its peak of 6. Half an hour after Logic pushed Choxorn past his own wagon, Winston switched.

True, but I still think it's weird to say 'I didnt expect it to blow up' (then why vote and argue for it in the first place)... Idk just feels off a bit. Then you just know also said that it was never the lead wagon... but I suppose some amnesia is going around so I don't fault you for that ;)

[Fredwood]

I what now? I have my own PoE and posted it and planned it out (well sorta, didnt really count the lynched we had...).

You're saying it was a perfect post and what you were doing. When it wasn't.

Monty's whole point in the post is the fact that we are considering lynching you means we are considering breaking established POE and should plan for failure, that was Monty's point. You weren't breaking POE, you were altering it (while inconsistently assessing spew) sure, but still planning out the failure while still trying to exist within it.

[Slaan]

You're saying it was a perfect post and what you were doing. When it wasn't.

Monty's whole point in the post is the fact that we are considering lynching you means we are considering breaking established POE and should plan for failure, that was Monty's point. You weren't breaking POE, you were altering it (while inconsistently assessing spew) sure, but still planning out the failure while still trying to exist within it.

??? Whats the difference between breaking PoE and altering it? When you plan out failure it's fine but if I do it it's not? And why would I ever place myself in my PoE to be lynched? If you mislynch me thats mainly your problem from where I stand as you have to figure out the last mafia with one less lynch and I woulnd't have to bother anymore.

I have 0 clue how this strategy behind your 'breaking PoE' or 'altering PoE' or whatever is supposed to work. I look at ppl and determine who my most likely mafia candidates are and who my most likely town candidates are and publish my thoughts. It doesnt matter much to me when doing it what the rest of you think, that's mostly irrelevant for my thoughts outside of very specific situations (such as the Winston case where I mindmelded with pizza over so many things and after his long Winston case (which after rereading it remembering to have read it and thought it good.. just didnt stick in my head because it still wasnt my read but w/e, not like you'll believe that before you see me flip) made me adopt this read of his w/o me having actually read winston myself). So why I be bound by your PoE or be concerend about breaking it or altering it or whatever?

And how would that make me scum?

[Fredwood]

I wasnt objecting to you ISOing him or even the points you made, it's the way you didnt want to place him... the reason being essentially because I'm around. You said in your ISO of monty Post #1896 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053763752&viewfull=1#post2053763752) that your read has taken a hit and you see crafty wolf in his day and now he's town again.. the fact that you mention me in this ISO 3 times is also weird to me.... though tbh I don't know how to place that. Guess its simliar to the way you suss that I find this progression and reasoning bad but I also somehow don't see this coming from a mafia who'd have a firmer opinion and not flip flap like that....

Because I wouldn't lynch Monty before I lynch you because of how you've treated Monty so forgivingly this phase (lock clearing) despite some serious suss you threw down on him Day 1 and that you said in the first 30 pages of your re-read that he looked good, when he in fact he didn't, he didn't look bad exactly either.

So what am I to think?

If Town Slaan is rereading, why would Town Slaan over credit Monty for his Body of work day 1, while also forgetting that some of his strongest suss in the game was on Monty. Is there a reason for Town Slaan to do this?

If Scum Slaan is "re-reading" why would Scum Slaan over credit Monty for his body of work day 1 and leave out that some of his strongest suss was directed towards him? I can think of a couple of reasons for this.

Basically every negative point for Monty in my ISO is a negative point for you and since you started with more negative points already it means I'm not going to be able to properly assess Monty.

Now, obviously I'm not fully sold on your lynch today, there's been bad stuff but some fair points, and I don't know if scum allows himself to become a target at this point in the game. At least this is what I would do, but I'm also not that good as scum so.

It's a fair point that you would remember your reads as scum, but I just don't like the idea that such a high town read would just be sheeping without saying anything, especially when it was shared by almost the entire thread. That means I can't trust your reads as town and if I can't trust what you're saying as town, what's the point of having you around?

Winston isn't the only issue, you lock cleared me, you hard sussed Monty, and these weren't consensus reads at the time so there was no sheeping going on. Ok so we can write off one as your misuse of the term lock clear. However, the fact that you accused Monty hard in a long involved post, and just sort of forgot about it just doesn't ring true to me. It wasn't an adoptive read, it was a progression. You can't possibly have the same excuse that you have for the Winston slip.

[Montmorency]

In other news, I feel like poking the bear a bit.

Vote: Manasi

It's probably somewhere in between how well she thinks I can read her and how well I think I can read her.

I think I can read her reasonably well.

not really

I think she's one that's easier to read when a wolf or two has already flipped. I'm not too good, and by which I mean horrible, at reading her tonally or by content.

Winston asks GH and Zack how well they can read Manasi. GH can read Manasi "reasonably well"; Zack reads Manasi "horribly".

GH went after Manasi and Zack never joined him. Soon after, Zack launched a case against Barto, which GH did not join.

This is just a tendril, but I'm working on a thesis that GH and Zack actively tried to differentiate their reads from each other's on the same people or things. If this is correct, then we should try to use the flips so far to make a model using the comparisons between reads and attitudes. It could help isolate candidates for their partner. Logic could affect this modeling, but to manage complexity we should do GH-Zack bivariate first and separately before we add Logic as a third variable. Since Logic has relatively few reads or interactions, it shouldn't be hard to layer the modifications onto the completed bivariate model.



Ok dumb question: Wouldnt a doc also protect from mafia faction kill? (thats how it works on my homeboard...) or does it only protect against vigs?

Would it matter? Whether or not (as Pizza wondered) a solo Mafia could wield two kills, if the game started with Mafia teamkill + vig, then as long as one of the kills gets blocked the effect is the same. Whether Winston, or Kagemusha, was a TK or a vig shouldn't affect the case wrt Town doctor.


True, but I still think it's weird to say 'I didnt expect it to blow up' (then why vote and argue for it in the first place)... Idk just feels off a bit. Then you just know also said that it was never the lead wagon... but I suppose some amnesia is going around so I don't fault you for that ;)

To have the case in the thread. Clearly, that's useful.

It was lead wagon for half an hour, cut me some slack.

[Fredwood]

??? Whats the difference between breaking PoE and altering it? When you plan out failure it's fine but if I do it it's not? And why would I ever place myself in my PoE to be lynched? If you mislynch me thats mainly your problem from where I stand as you have to figure out the last mafia with one less lynch and I woulnd't have to bother anymore.

I have 0 clue how this strategy behind your 'breaking PoE' or 'altering PoE' or whatever is supposed to work. I look at ppl and determine who my most likely mafia candidates are and who my most likely town candidates are and publish my thoughts. It doesnt matter much to me when doing it what the rest of you think, that's mostly irrelevant for my thoughts outside of very specific situations (such as the Winston case where I mindmelded with pizza over so many things and after his long Winston case (which after rereading it remembering to have read it and thought it good.. just didnt stick in my head because it still wasnt my read but w/e, not like you'll believe that before you see me flip) made me adopt this read of his w/o me having actually read winston myself). So why I be bound by your PoE or be concerend about breaking it or altering it or whatever?

And how would that make me scum?

sigh...

Maybe you truly don't see the difference, maybe you do, at this point I don't know how else to say it to make it clear.

At the start of the day you weren't in the POE for today, you were in the lynch as last resort pile. Now you're in the needs to be dealt with sooner then later pile. I

You were saying, Yes, I believe we should follow this POE (except lol Bart is in my Final 3...for whatever reason), but Imma go ahead and plan out all the lynches until final 3.

It's the difference between playing for the day and playing 4 days ahead. Now what Monty is saying that since we're considering you that we're severely altering our path to victory that was established pretty much since the first phase, so that means we have to think it out. I don't think it really is a valid point, it just means we have a smaller don't lynch until later pile.

[Slaan]

Yea, never gonna use the term lock clear anymore. At times I think I just said it to sell a point I saw as very towny... rip me I guess on that front, and well learned.

Regarding Monty: I didnt like Monty D1 thats true. But now that Zack has flipped this looks alot better in my eyes... He is not locked by any means, except chox (and I guess pizza, cuz that would be some srsly disgusting play if he was ^^) noone is. Having now reached well into D2 in my reread I've gotten concerned again because he has GH/Zack as 'only one of them can be mafia, they are never partners' or somesuch.... and then goes after GH over Zack even though he sussed Zack on D1 rather strongly.. at this point I'm just trying to make an ordered list of ppl from least scummy to most scummy and hope to get ppl to vote with me on the most scummy ppl. There arent any obvious slam dunk scum cases for anyone around, at least not that I can see so I have to deal in shades of grey and obviously figuring this it out is hard. Which is to no suprise since anyone on me is wrong and outside of that no one seems to be sure about much so yea. Maybe me bringing up town points on ppl I prev looks scummy looks bad from youru perspective or the other way around but I'm not going to tunnel any read at this juncture...

Regarding Winston: iirc I even said in the post where I put him as one of my top points that pizza's case on him was good so I'm good with the read... and before pizza made that case I even said that I'm still pretty null on Winston if I'm not mistaken... can't look it up rn because I want to be through with my reread before the day is over (obviously) and I have to still do some grocery shopping + EoD/night is coming up in game I'm hosting so yea..

[Slaan]

Would it matter? Whether or not (as Pizza wondered) a solo Mafia could wield two kills, if the game started with Mafia teamkill + vig, then as long as one of the kills gets blocked the effect is the same. Whether Winston, or Kagemusha, was a TK or a vig shouldn't affect the case wrt Town doctor.

So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.

[Slaan]

sigh...

Maybe you truly don't see the difference, maybe you do, at this point I don't know how else to say it to make it clear.

At the start of the day you weren't in the POE for today, you were in the lynch as last resort pile. Now you're in the needs to be dealt with sooner then later pile. I

You were saying, Yes, I believe we should follow this POE (except lol Bart is in my Final 3...for whatever reason), but Imma go ahead and plan out all the lynches until final 3.

It's the difference between playing for the day and playing 4 days ahead. Now what Monty is saying that since we're considering you that we're severely altering our path to victory that was established pretty much since the first phase, so that means we have to think it out. I don't think it really is a valid point, it just means we have a smaller don't lynch until later pile.

Didnt Chox just basically take my place? What else has changed?

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (1): Montmorency,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,

Not voting (8): Choxorn, Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo Slaan, Pizza,

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Strongman and no doctor. That's just bizarre.

Okay. Barto I guess.

Vote: El Barto

[Fredwood]

Didnt Chox just basically take my place? What else has changed?

No Chox is in the never lynch pile now. To my mind nothing has changed because yes, essentially you guys swapped. Which is why I don't agree with Monty, but he's also not saying the same thing you were doing.

However according to your logic with Bart, Chox should have always been in the never lynch pile. Basically anybody with somewhat valid spew should be, which means Monty shouldn't have been in your lynch as last resort. Your logic was inconsistent within your own post.

[Fredwood]

Pizza what do you make of the Xiahou vote?

[Montmorency]

sigh...

Maybe you truly don't see the difference, maybe you do, at this point I don't know how else to say it to make it clear.

At the start of the day you weren't in the POE for today, you were in the lynch as last resort pile. Now you're in the needs to be dealt with sooner then later pile. I

You were saying, Yes, I believe we should follow this POE (except lol Bart is in my Final 3...for whatever reason), but Imma go ahead and plan out all the lynches until final 3.

It's the difference between playing for the day and playing 4 days ahead. Now what Monty is saying that since we're considering you that we're severely altering our path to victory that was established pretty much since the first phase, so that means we have to think it out. I don't think it really is a valid point, it just means we have a smaller don't lynch until later pile.

I should point out, I recognized some problems with planning if planning involves changing course on the basis of flips - because all flips are town until the game ends.


Standard 2 deaths per round. 4 lynches, 3 kills.

Predict only 1/4 locked survives to LYLO.







But there's nothing new here. Actually, this is more arbitrary than I imagined. I can't really switch around people in the Lock/Lynch piles, or do so contingent on future lynches, because there's no new flips to distinguish lynches (effectively all town until game ends). No one can be cleared or spewed anymore (without role claims) because there are no more Mafia partners to lynch. I can't predict what new information changes the variables, so it becomes random if you make plans that deviate from Pizza's OG stable.

OK I was somewhat mistaken. You really do have to take it day by day. :shrug:




So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.

I said that if there is no claim it creates problems for Pizza, so claiming now, especially near EOD, would harm town. A claim would only strengthen the case against you, even if it isn't airtight.

But I believe that the absence of any claim up to now suggests that there is no doctor, and there is no vig: Pizza's scenario is all wrong.

[Fredwood]

I should point out, I recognized some problems with planning if planning involves changing course on the basis of flips - because all flips are town until the game ends.







I said that if there is no claim it creates problems for Pizza, so claiming now, especially near EOD, would harm town. A claim would only strengthen the case against you, even if it isn't airtight.

But I believe that the absence of any claim up to now suggests that there is no doctor, and there is no vig: Pizza's scenario is all wrong.

Or Cuth is the doctor, or whoever is the doctor didn't read Pizza's post.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza what do you make of the Xiahou vote?

I don't know.

At this point I will say we are not masons and I don't have any reason besides his votes to suspect he's a townie.

The votes looked good is all.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Or Cuth is the doctor, or whoever is the doctor didn't read Pizza's post.

Or the strongman shooter was assigned to one person, and it was meant to counter the gift giving inventor protection(s).

It's possible that it would cycle back to being another doctor protection.

Here's how you can tell we have no doctor: choxorn dies tonight.

[Fredwood]

I don't know.

At this point I will say we are not masons and I don't have any reason besides his votes to suspect he's a townie.

The votes looked good is all.

No I don't mean for the point of sussing Xiah, it's a bad post I guess. I was just seeing if you thought he was an accurate voter in this situation like Auto was in XCom. It basically was never mentioned or discussed by anyone but a ? from Bart.

[Montmorency]

Or Cuth is the doctor, or whoever is the doctor didn't read Pizza's post.

I had a thought that Cuth or some other lurker could be scum - just weren't around to help their partners on the Choxorn wagon toward EOD - but it's not strong reasoning and you shouldn't rely on it.

[Fredwood]

I had a thought that Cuth or some other lurker could be scum - just weren't around to help their partners on the Choxorn wagon toward EOD - but it's not strong reasoning and you shouldn't rely on it.

I'm not, my suss on Slaan never involved Pizza's points about the doctor and crumbing. It was a bit too high level of games theory for me to really get on board with.

[Askthepizzaguy]

No I don't mean for the point of sussing Xiah, it's a bad post I guess. I was just seeing if you thought he was an accurate voter in this situation like Auto was in XCom. It basically was never mentioned or discussed by anyone but a ? from Bart..
I have to be able to see the motive.

The bare naked vote from Xiahou on Csargo doesn't do much for me. If I am to change on a town read I have to see the motive.

Spelled out for me where during the game Csargo was helping the mafia team, and why those posts are indicative of mafia instead of town.

Like, I can see a plan from Monty, if I squint real hard. I didn't really ever see a plan from Csargo.

Plans can be individual tactics or coordination with the scum team as a whole.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I had a thought that Cuth or some other lurker could be scum - just weren't around to help their partners on the Choxorn wagon toward EOD - but it's not strong reasoning and you shouldn't rely on it.

What is your assessment on Csargo?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it happened to be Cuth or Xiahou, there's no way for Askthepizzaguy to determine that from just reading the thread.

There's nothing in their posts suggesting it. Cuth because most of his behavior is null, save for a couple of posts I cited that looked good, and the way Logic talked about him.

Eventually such a read will have to be reexamined. I went with what I saw and what my gut told me about it.

Xiahou had good votes and not much else. So if we're just lynching folks who vote for the scums and for no other basis of suspecting them, it's like we're flipping coins.

It's a great way to sneak past me. I have to see motive and a plan and when I don't, when your behavior just looks like a townie, it's playing dice to vote there, and with 3 flipped wolves and this many posts, we should be able to tell at the very least that everyone but Xiahou is townie looking, if it was Xiahou. Even if you can't read the slot you can read the room.

But if it's him I can't catch him. It's a blind spot.

[Montmorency]

What is your assessment on Csargo?

I don't have a D1 analysis, but I think he's detached town who's poking at whatever he sees at the time he's available.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't have a D1 analysis, but I think he's detached town who's poking at whatever he sees at the time he's available.

So who are your suspects in total. Who would you lynch today, who would you never lynch today.

[Montmorency]

So who are your suspects in total. Who would you lynch today, who would you never lynch today.

0. If it's you, you can have it. I take you for granted as town.

1. DP and Choxorn lock town. I'd prefer not to look at DP in another light unless something in a reread specifically catches my eye.

2. I feel good about Csargo.

3. Cuth and Fred have performed strongly, with a fair amount of spew. Look at them last.

4. Xiahou is a wildcard that can't be overlooked.

5. Slaan may have to be lynched now, but despite my hesitance I think there's more total scumminess going for him than for Barto - then again there is also more total towniness.

At this point clear out Barto today, and if that fails try to recheck all the reads and interactions by flipped scum to see if there are special patterns in the ways they behave that are relevant to a Xiahou and Slaan TD, and other relationships.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Give me more about Csargo if you can, please.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I also have to actually iso him. Been putting it off because the game state .

[Askthepizzaguy]

I will say this

Xiahou

Cuthillius

And anyone who hasn't been really following the game state (not saying the above have not been, just, I can't tell how much you've been keeping up or read from your posts)

Since your posts are not clearing enough to keep you out of suspicion to many, and your activity is infrequent, if you have a power to claim, you should do it on the next day phase.

Otherwise the assumption is you're scum or vanilla townie and it can result in a hammer.

[Montmorency]

Give me more about Csargo if you can, please.

Leaving aside D1, D2 saw the collapse of GH and D3 started with Zack dead. If these are Csargo's partners, he is remarkably consistent in affecting variously lolcatting and semi-serious observation, neither collapsing into chaos (if giving up on the game) nor making any real attempt to direct the agenda or to clear himself. Both his level and manner of participation are stable and proportionate to game state/activity since at least later in D1.

[El Barto]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong. :stare:I might have missed something, but why are you voting for him?
In lack of better leads, having expected the day to end way later and not while I'm off to IRL I'll just have to stick by this. vote: Xiahou.

If you're voting for me then specify whether there's any post(s) that made you feel I was a mafioso or whether it's just that I'm not clean enough and you need to whittle down the number of suspects. Bye.

So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.
Didn't choxorn claim something?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Leaving aside D1, D2 saw the collapse of GH and D3 started with Zack dead. If these are Csargo's partners, he is remarkably consistent in affecting variously lolcatting and semi-serious observation, neither collapsing into chaos (if giving up on the game) nor making any real attempt to direct the agenda or to clear himself. Both his level and manner of participation are stable and proportionate to game state/activity since at least later in D1.

My observations about Csargo is that he doesn't really break a poker face no matter what the game state is.

If his partners are all under pressure, or himself, he may not react at all.

I think if there was a tell, it would be something along the lines of breaking character as opposed to showing visible signs of stress.

Something like changing tactics or levels of seriousness about the game. The evenness in terms of stress or reaction to pressure on him or the outed wolves I'd expect, the evenness in how he's playing the game in the phases we've seen so far is really good wolfing from him if that's what it is. I think that might be the only thing he wouldn't normally control, is the overall approach to the game. At some point, the changing game state should have caused a crack and gotten him to attempt to win town points and get out of the POE.

Mainly, in how he'd be interacting with the town core.

If I were to come up with a theory on how to read Csargo as scum, which... as he's seeing me type this it can probably become invalid the next time he rands scum. The tells only work if you're not aware they are a tell.

What I've seen lines up with your own characterization.

[Cuthillius]

I will say this

Xiahou

Cuthillius

And anyone who hasn't been really following the game state (not saying the above have not been, just, I can't tell how much you've been keeping up or read from your posts)

Since your posts are not clearing enough to keep you out of suspicion to many, and your activity is infrequent, if you have a power to claim, you should do it on the next day phase.

Otherwise the assumption is you're scum or vanilla townie and it can result in a hammer.

hi

noted

i have been following along for the most part, i just

lost any actual drive/interest in the game while it was in the PizzaFollowsPoEAndLaughsAtScumbags phase

and was ~dead yesterday

but am feeling a bit better today and there's actually a point in engaging with the thread now so I should be around more

all the same

[Slaan]

Alright, basically through now (page54 but that oughta do... not like ppl sussing me after this is gonna help me find the last wolf ^^)


No Chox is in the never lynch pile now. To my mind nothing has changed because yes, essentially you guys swapped. Which is why I don't agree with Monty, but he's also not saying the same thing you were doing.

However according to your logic with Bart, Chox should have always been in the never lynch pile. Basically anybody with somewhat valid spew should be, which means Monty shouldn't have been in your lynch as last resort. Your logic was inconsistent within your own post.

After I read the first 30 pages In my mind when they started going after Barto that had a real chance of working out... later the wagon on Chox didnt as much. So seeing as they couldnt save Logic by forcing a town mislynch in Barto they switched to Chox to bus a partner here into a 2 mafia wagon D1 scenario... I had this on my mind partly because of what happened in our Wild West Game were GH pushed mudkip when Bumblebee was getting lynched. It triggered a blindspot for me in that game because I hardly ever see two wolf wagons on D1 on my homesite but in this MU-ish meta that seemes to be a valid strategy.

I have to admit though that my reasoning isnt perfect on Barto. In the end it doesnt matter all that much who dies if Barto is indeed mafia and they bussed him then. If Barto ended up being the flip then great, they'd have gotten tons of cred (similiar as everyone that pushed the logic wagon got).. if not at least they distanced themselves etc. So yes, Barto is far from lock town.

So let me give you my current thoughts on everyone:

Csargo: Only small things clearing him. Like Zack multiple times saying there was lots of bussing going on on the Logic wagon which I usually here from wolves when there was, in fact, no bussing. Other than that I don't think there is much....
Dp101: Massive tinfoil territory with a possible slip but overall he just looks too good. The spew, the tone, the 'bussing'. Only thing that botheres me is how inactive he was now. I think mafia would like to play passively right about now and let town tinfoil on each other... but I doubt I could ever kill him over the others.
Pizza: Heh, also massive tinfoil but if he is mafia this is a 1% play and he'd never get townread for wolfhunting again as long as he is alive so that's probably a bad play to make even as scum just for being townread this game ^^. I kinda have a pet theory that he is some 3p that knows all the roles and has to be last man standing with a bulletproof vest... hello speculation. He can have this game in this case though as well, don't see how we'd realistically ever catch that.
Fredwood: I don't like how he is going after me but he looks good the previous days and even the way he is going after me I'd consider more towny. At this point in game I don't think mafia is looking to be very active and push mislynches... especially Fredwood who I'd overall not charcterize as aggressive would sit back more, not be on the forefront of a Slaan mislynch. I think he is just entered tunnel territory on me which is fine (well ish)
El Barto: Actually difficult. I liked my previous theory but that one was obviously wrong with Chox claim and all. Maybe I got it backwards and they sussed/did distancing thingy with Barto and didnt think it would go anywhere (or that Barto could clear himself, Zack did jump off him very lightly)? Barto was in the scumpile of both GH and Zack, so maybe he was the designated low mafia fruit they wanted to go after for cred. Barto himself did vote pretty well overall but that could very well be part of this strat, not to mention that he wasnt really constructive when Zack/GH were still around but got rather active once it was clear he would have to solo? I have to admit I have a blindspot when it comes to coordinates mafia strategies as I'm not yet used to games with mafia chat and mafia actually talking, we don't have this on my homesite. Only in the Champ game did I see the mafia doing something to a coordinated strategy, in Wild West there was none and in the orchestrated chaos game we also didnt coordinate much (nothing I'd really call a strategy anyway, talked night kills and power usage)... so maybe I'm overthinking it but in the end I think he has to die before the game ends.
Cutch: Not much to read up on, the townpoints some bring up are there but there is soo little.. that's NAI but having him in F3 would be terrible without having anything to really read up on. Not that anything he can say now is going to change that I think so imo he has to go at some point. How is the modkill policy here? He has only 1 post so far this phase....
Monty: I'd let him live I think. I didnt find anything damning with now knowing the flips. On top of that his WIM has been insane, I'm not a big fan of the way he does ISO (more recounting what happened and less analysis) but doing all this work and on top of that apparently reading older games etc..? Yes townreading one for him alone isnt great but he is mafia he is pretty insane. And similar to Fredwood: Why would he interfere so constructive in pizzas case against me? I mean it can be mafia to bolster their own cred for being right in the end on me but then why vote me.... Just sit back, enjoy the show or write smth non committal or w/e.. but he seemed to be in my head as he mostly wrote exactly what I was thinking/my position. Now tinfoil me says thats because he knows I'm town and can thus better judge the situation and make those posts... na, I'd let him beat me this game.
Chox: Actually lock clear. Well 99%, Cuth could come around and counterclaim I don't think he'd seen it yet but the way he claimed was just towny.
Xiahou: I'd lynch him without a second thought. Yes his voting profile looks good but that's about it... and that's actually also what concerns me. He seems to be hardly around, I doubt he reads the entire thread (or I'd imagine he'd post more comments). Now how can he have such a great voting record? I have players on my homeforum that follow the strat to just bus ppl and be quiet otherwise and then let their votingrecord speak and I feel like this could very well be happening here...

So this leaves me with the following list of ppl from most want dead to least want dead:
Xiahou -> Cuth -> Barto -> Csargo -> Monty -> Fred -> dp101 -> pizza -> Chox -> Slaan

[Slaan]

Vote: Xiahou

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (2): Montmorency, Pizza,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,

Xiahou (1): Slaan,

Not voting (6): Choxorn, Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Xiahou can be a suspect tomorrow at the earliest.

He's never been under pressure and needs to be given a chance to claim before he's speed lynched.

Other than that, it's an okay theory.

[Slaan]

Xiahou can be a suspect tomorrow at the earliest.

He's never been under pressure and needs to be given a chance to claim before he's speed lynched.

Other than that, it's an okay theory.

Actually a good point.... I wonder if we should ask Cuth to claim if he's around... but I guess you are all set on Barto dying today so w/e.

Vote: Barto

[Slaan]

Cuth you said you are more or less caught up.. what is your take on the situation?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Barto gets to 4, please don't add additional votes to him, just say you want to vote him if so.

Use the time. If he's town, what in his posts say that he is?

[Choxorn]

Vote: El Barto

I have no better ideas at this point.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lol POE.

[Slaan]

If Barto gets to 4, please don't add additional votes to him, just say you want to vote him if so.

Use the time. If he's town, what in his posts say that he is?

Isnt it over in 30min? If he is mafia we can discuss all we want after the game is over, if he isnt we can discuss during the night ^^

[Askthepizzaguy]

Isnt it over in 30min? If he is mafia we can discuss all we want after the game is over, if he isnt we can discuss during the night ^^

I'm not done isoing Csargo yet. And burying someone is not necessary if there is a better alternative.

I would like to make a decision on Csargo as to whether he should still be town read or not.

[Slaan]

Alright, have fun

[Dp101]

I’ve been in a similar position to cuth recently, haven’t had much WIM in general with the game state being what it is. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game use PoEs as aggressively as this one before, it’s kind of weird. I think overall though Slaan doesn’t need to be a suspect right now, he’s reacted authentically to the pressure. His currently proposed PoE is fine by me.

[Montmorency]

If Barto gets to 4, please don't add additional votes to him, just say you want to vote him if so.

Use the time. If he's town, what in his posts say that he is?

Check out this angle (general, not Barto). I'm planning to explore D1 overnight with this lens, and see if it leads to patterns that are actionable wrt living players.

So Zack reads Manasi horribly, wait till scums flip and do partner analysis; GH can read Manasi reasonably well, better than she might expect (votes Manasi). So that's a divergence.

Going by a quick advanced search of the thread I can't find a direct Manasi read in a comprehensive post by Zack, but at the end of D1 GH was scumreading Manasi, at points even his top scum. Still a divergence.

Here's what I have by the two on Barto so far (major items, not complete):


Well, now that I'm finally live, some combination of Fred, Barto, and Reinoe. I'd also like to stay live for a little while.

GH looking at people including Barto - BUT, this was before Zack made the case against him.


Okay so I got distracted doing other stuff and was only able to get to Fred and Barto.

Barto I still have no idea on, and probably won't until we get a flip. Wouldn't say no to lynching him but at the same time I fully recognize this is a lazy read. Don't care though.

Fred I feel somewhat better about, I think it was dp(?) who said that while he was around he made some pretty good points, and here I agree pretty much. Seems natural and focused, not really forcing anything. Fred can be town today.

GH looks at Barto, but takes away a nullish, self-admittedly lazy read. Still before Zack's case.


Also, anyone who is riding the train of "Logic is scum here, because he is noticeably and explicitly different from XCOM mafia, where he was town."

Read Barto in that game, read Logic in that game. Read them both in this game.

There's a stark difference in one of them, and it's not Logic.

Difference in games between XCOM and this one greater for Barto than for Logic.


People refuse to read him, because he's barto. But it's not that hard.

In the CFC/MTGS game on MU, I defended him for days before finally giving up. He was town.

I don't remember the game it was, but he was worried with fixing votecounts or something while having zero interest in the actual thread. I called him out on it as being wolfy, and got a mixture of scorn and ambivalence.

In Sooh's last game, I called him out as a probable wolf again. He was scum. I barely escaped getting mislynche d1, and got immediately killed by the town vigilante.

In Representative Democracy, as my teammate, I was literally begging him in our scum chat to please, post and do something. He did nothing but occasionally pop in to complain about the number of posts and do not really anything, pretty much what he's done here.

Look at XCOM. How much time does he spend complaining about having to read the thread? Does he make thoughtless OMGUS votes then peace out?

Nope.

Zack's case on Barto that he is trolling and lacks interest in the thread.


I mean, the interpretation/paraphrase that makes most sense to me is the following:

There are two wagons right now, Logic and Barto. I'm scumreading Barto more than Logic but am fine with either lynch. Unfortunately I'm still going to vote Logic despite my greater scumread of Logic.

It just... doesn't make sense from town? It's almost like he's trying to appease Pizza.

GH shading Fred, who suspects both Barto and Logic but thinks Logic should be the 'default' lynch for the day. (This could mean any number of things, but it should be included).

***

So I think Zack wants Barto dead, and GH doesn't really care, except maybe indirectly. It's still a divergence, but not as large as the one on Manasi. I have no idea what it means. What it means depends on Barto's flip now, and the nature of any other divergence I can pick up in D1.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (4): Montmorency, Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,



Not voting (5): Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Csargo

[Montmorency]

Vote: Csargo

I disagree.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (3): Montmorency, Slaan, Choxorn,

Csargo (2): Xiahou, Pizza,



Not voting (5): Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Csargo

Page 1: NAI / banter

Page 2: NAI / banter

Page 3: Banter so far with GH and Zack, looks like a joke vote on Zack in 187.

Page 4: Switched from a vote on Zack to a vote on me. Disagreed with reinoe's post about logic and Zack being scum together. Explains he was voting me for roleplaying, which I admit, is not something I tend to do every game and is a good way to mask my true intentions. 287 clarified which part of the reinoe post he agreed with wrt Zack. Zack shades Csargo a bit for having contradictions in his post. Which I agreed with at the time.

Page 5: Standing out I can see he says he understands the post where I have both Zack and GH in my town. 333 reaction feels a little forced. So at the time, I actually had Csargo as scummy. My next highest suspect in fact, based on the above body of work.

352 is where I am seeing reasons to actually town read Csargo.


I'm not a fan of Zack's lackadaisical(not sure if this fits entirely, but I think it does) attitude tbh, which is why I voted him. There's a lot of posts, but I expected more from him even though it's early. It's D1, so I'm not sure if I'm just reading too much into it or not.

ATPG is just sowing confusion imo, being cryptic but posting like it has a deeper meaning, and I feel like that's more likely scum pizza than town. He might just be having fun Rping though, that's also a possibility.

Don't think GH deserves a townread, but I think he's been slightly town, but more null really.

Your actions are odd, not sure what to make of them. Could go either way.

Think WH's posts have been good, but I've been burned before and that's still fresh. I'm suspicious.

Like reinoe's posts so far, look good. Time will tell.

I've got nothing else.

The first bolded is a really unusual method of distancing from a scum buddy.

Usually they identify a weak post or two or give more general or vague reasons to suspect them that can be more easily reversed, in my experience. This is a generic tell and applies to most everyone, not Csargo specifically.

The vote based on the reasons given is specific, which is that Zack had a lot of posts but they felt lacking in productivity/content pretty much. Calling out a scum buddy and saying you have a lot of posts but they're not good posts and voting them is... rare.

I don't recall a lot of instances of seeing that. In fact I can't think of one that early in the game.

Upon Zack's flip, just remembering Csargo's game, his stock continued to rise from where it already was.

That's really good distancing if that's what it is. So as of this post the balance looks about even. Many posts and an overall strategy that can fit a scum csargo, but this specific post looks out of place in such a universe.

378 could be distancing between him and GH but it'd be weird distancing.

379 from Zack does look a bit more like distancing, but it's 50/50. And it's also strange that he posts this a few posts after 376, where he's actually pushing back against the idea that Csargo is scum for posting a pic, which GH mentioned he had done before.

This is elaborate distancing if it is. Usually you either defend or condemn a partner in such a short span of posts, not both.


-------------------------

Page 6: 426 reaction to Fredwood's post, all he got out of it was that Fredwood also suspected him and voted elsewhere.

If I know Csargo, and I can't claim to really know what's going on inside his head in most games, my suspicion here is that he's actually being ironic, and he doesn't actually care that he's getting suspicion. I feel like he probably thinks there's more utility in letting scums dogpile him than actually fighting back, so they'll look bad if and when he flips town. The best defense is no defense, kinda deal. I can't really alignment read this though, because he can certainly not care as scum and makes jokes there too.

Page 7: Slaan votes Csargo, he says "cool". Actually reacts to Fredwood giving a reason to suspect him. In 506 he thinks Zack has gotten better.

Page 8: Nothing

Page 9: 673, I don't think Csargo actually for real cracks under pressure, but he could be appealing to sympathy here.


You'd be right that I'm annoyed/not enjoying this game pizza. I'm busy with school/work, so I'm super tired all the time now. I'm not entirely sure what happened with the Zack thing initially, I didn't think I contradicted myself, but such is life. It spiraled after that, I'm just not having a good time.

Page 10:


1. GH
2. Csargo
3. Dp101
4. Pizza
5. Fredwood
6. El Barto
7. Montmorency
8. Zack
9. Cuthillius
10. Manasi
11. Slaan
12. Reinoe
13. Choxorn
14. Winston Hughes
15. Logic
16. Xiahou
17. Kagemusha

Any of the bolded people I'd consider suspicious. Probably throw WH in there for paranoia reasons as well, maybe Zack too for tinfoil reasons.

This post is not so good. And at the time I didn't like it. That said, Barto and Xiahou are still suspects, and he did mention Zack. But it's basically rand. So he's naming Logic as a suspect but also the people pushing Logic. Which is why it didn't make sense to me at the time.


It just a gut thing at this point, in regards to pizza, I think there's decent potential for pizza to be mafia. I can see why people are town reading him though, he's playing very similarly to XCOM. I don't think it's the same though, so I have reservations.

This is what Manasi does as scum and probably as town.

I can't read El Barto well.

Choxorn for low posts, can't get a read on him. Same for Xiahou.

I feel like logic is different from XCOM, but I need to iso that game and see.

I'd much rather eliminate people with less posts this early in the game tbh. I can get a much better read on the non-bolded people going forward, less so with the others.

Seems low hanging fruit. The bit about choxorn is like, choxorn should always be like that on day 1. Don't think that's a good reason to suspect him.


So far this game, besides the Chess RP, has been essentially a carbon copy of the XCOM game D1. It's just weird is all I'm saying, could just wait and see what Jowy/Logic flips. The RPing stuff bothered me as well, because it didn't seem all that insightful, just sort of in your face, far less good-humored than ATPG usually is idk. Just think his game feels off a bit to me.

I do like that he's saying I look identical to XCOM despite my roleplaying.

Still, it feels like there are two positions here or a contradictory one. If I look just like XCOM except for the roleplaying, then how am I weird or off?

Putting gut feelings into words is liable to run into examples of contradiction, but it does make me a little uneasy.

Page 11: "Tempted" to follow the wagon onto Manasi, to make it a viable alternative to Logic perhaps.

Page 12: Wagons El Barto with Winston.

This is as far as I've gotten.

El Barto could be scum, but Csargo's day one is not good up to this point, and you need time to decide if that's true.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I only got halfway through but I'd like to discuss it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can see it both ways. There are a few good posts and odd interactions with the dead scums, but also scummy stuff.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote:Logic

Also, this isn't what I asked for, but it'll do.

I'm not really concerned with where you put me in your POE, because if I'm lynched I've played the best town game I can under the circumstances. I mean I'm not just going to rollover and die, I'll definitely fight you on that front, but if you choose to lynch me after those two, then that's how it's going to go.

I'm not sure what you're referring to with the interactions bit. I've always responded to accusations btw, just with varying degrees of seriousness regardless of alignment imo. I'm pretty sure you talked somewhere about that.

This could be the bus.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Barto voters, in your last few minutes of this round, compare what your feelings are on El Barto to the quoted post in 1985.

Csargo gotta go.

[Montmorency]

I can see it both ways. There are a few good posts and odd interactions with the dead scums, but also scummy stuff.

Something that should be noted, how do you interpret that Csargo was posting right around when GH made Choxorn a 3-person wagon and he just ignores it, eventually voting Logic. And that's how he ends the day.

Ruthless power wolfing if that's how he treats the wagon to save his partner, and he doesn't have the pro-activeness afterwards to demonstrate a desire to win as a solo power wolf.


It was probably a poor decision to bold you in that list tbh, since I would probably lump you in with Zack/WH at this point. My vote has just been a placeholder for a while now. Zack/WH/ATPG are me just being cautious about just lumping you all as town without due diligence on my part. It's still early and I think doing so would be a mistake. I did say at some point that the Logic flip would effect my view, which seems clear to me, but maybe I didn't make it so, but I really like holding contradictory views in my head, which has already been pointed out :). I honestly don't really town read anyone at this point, besides Kage, Monty, and DP101, I feel good about a lot of the unbolded people in my list, but I'm not really town reading them per se. As far as reading your slot for alignment, I'll just say that I'm being obstinate ~:wink:.

Just because we've come to the same conclusions on who is suspect at this point doesn't mean that you can't be scum or I can't be scum. It's just waiting for flips to see.




If you lay out your problems with me concisely ATPG I'll try to respond to them to the best of my current ability.



Vote:Logic

Also, this isn't what I asked for, but it'll do.

I'm not really concerned with where you put me in your POE, because if I'm lynched I've played the best town game I can under the circumstances. I mean I'm not just going to rollover and die, I'll definitely fight you on that front, but if you choose to lynch me after those two, then that's how it's going to go.

I'm not sure what you're referring to with the interactions bit. I've always responded to accusations btw, just with varying degrees of seriousness regardless of alignment imo. I'm pretty sure you talked somewhere about that.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll read yours if you read my last two posts with an open mind.

The power wolfing you are looking for has been found.

[Montmorency]

If Slaan was confident that the Choxorn wagon could have beat the Logic wagon, then Csargo is singlehandedly what kept Logic solidly ahead when he could have tied the wagons.

Why didn't he tie the wagons?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Slaan was confident that the Choxorn wagon could have beat the Logic wagon, then Csargo is singlehandedly what kept Logic solidly ahead when he could have tied the wagons.

Why didn't he tie the wagons?

Because that looks scummy.

It's a 50/50 move.

This lynch is more like 60/40 to me. Csargo 60, Barto 40.

[Fredwood]

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.

Ultimately when it comes to my view of GH, (Similar to where I'm at with SLaan) there was enough wtf is he doing to vote for him, but I still had doubts because I don't think I should be able to catch scum GH so easily. So from my perspective, I can see how Csargo makes that post.

[Slaan]

I'm not that confident about how the mafia approached that EoD... My original theory was wrong in the first place so I'm trying to make it sorta fit now but duno

[Montmorency]

Because that looks scummy.

It's a 50/50 move.

This lynch is more like 60/40 to me. Csargo 60, Barto 40.

For this to work Zack and GH have to decide that they themselves should abandon the game in order for Csargo to solo. Wouldn't it make more sense for Csargo to sacrifice himself for Zack or GH to solo?

All of the typical speculation aside, I have some rock-solid evidence that I can offer tomorrow.

[Slaan]

I mean the 4ppl I'd always kill this game is xiahou/cuth/barto/csargo, as long as we kill one of them today I'm fine with it... I saw the scummy stuff pizza pointed out as well but it's not so much that I feel like he is for sure the last mafia.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.

Ultimately when it comes to my view of GH, (Similar to where I'm at with SLaan) there was enough wtf is he doing to vote for him, but I still had doubts because I don't think I should be able to catch scum GH so easily. So from my perspective, I can see how Csargo makes that post.

I believe the fourth scum absolutely has to push the narrative that one of GH or Zack are not scum for that EOD, and saying both might not be scum is the best. Also, since people aren't suspecting him hard after the Logic bus, he's the only wolf really capable of selling that narrative.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (3): Montmorency, Slaan, Choxorn,

Csargo (2): Xiahou, Pizza,



Not voting (5): Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507932000.png

[Fredwood]

I mean the 4ppl I'd always kill this game is xiahou/cuth/barto/csargo, as long as we kill one of them today I'm fine with it... I saw the scummy stuff pizza pointed out as well but it's not so much that I feel like he is for sure the last mafia.

Neither Bart or Csargo's presence today inspires much confidence.

[Askthepizzaguy]

For this to work Zack and GH have to decide that they themselves should abandon the game in order for Csargo to solo. Wouldn't it make more sense for Csargo to sacrifice himself for Zack or GH to solo?

All of the typical speculation aside, I have some rock-solid evidence that I can offer tomorrow.

They pretty clearly did not think that both of them would go down for it.

They have a lot of faith in their own abilities and town's likelihood of chasing random cars.

[Slaan]

Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.

Me too btw. I think it's the normal reaction to the way those two buddied each other (which kinda makes me suss everyone a bit who hasnt but considerings its mainly pizza that heroshotted Zack it's hard to argue ^^)

[Askthepizzaguy]

In any case, vote please. If you disagree vote against me.