Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan
Csargo
Kage
Cuth
reinoe
Xiahou

remainder
Slaan easily town, reinoe still easily town too imo.

No bad vibes from Kage or Cuth at all.

Not much from Xiahou but given the lack of pressure on him, and the attention so focused elsewhere, the thread is a field of dreams for a scum to plop themselves in and get a bunch of posts out there so they are not even being considered. It's such a level 1 move.

I don't think Xiahou's lack of posting is something that should be held against him. He's gonna come out and my prediction is he'll end up town when he does. His couple of posts were also nice. Not enough to town read but they were good.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You're making me feel you should be even higher.

Very nice work if you're scum.
+1 Monty's good.

By post 919 he's made seriously impressive and game-winning posts if he's scum. He's good but the vibe I should be getting from him is neutral /vaguely townie / vaguely scummish if he's scum. I shouldn't get a strong read off of what he's doing, because in the middle is the best place for him when he's scumming, and it's where he almost invariably ends up, too.

No, Monty's a strong town read here by now. I'm not just impressed by his work, because he's a mega hard worker as scum. The kind of content that he's specifically giving always makes him town, and I've probably never ever said that before about Monty.

[Winston Hughes]

Vote: Logic

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Logic flips wolf I'm going to start looking realy hard at GH btw... in the wild west game he also tried to save a mafia buddy by going after Fredwood.

That being said I don't mind his attitude rn, doesnt hurt to look further than the 'easy' lynches so that's fine
After the bold, look at Zack.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If you lay out your problems with me concisely ATPG I'll try to respond to them to the best of my current ability.
I am sorry I didn't get to this quickly. I might have answered it already, but if not, nudge me.

If I lynch some of your suspects and they turn out to be a wolf, I might still call for you to be lynched. Some of those interactions look bad.

Knowing that, would you still help me lynch them if you think they are a wolf?

Let's say I gave it two shots. Logic being the first to go, choxorn second, or vice-versa. Let's say both flip wolf.

I think that's what is gonna happen. If I list your name in the POE after that, are you still gonna help me lynch them?

I'll give you one more chance to not be lynched if you help me lynch a deep wolf after that, but otherwise I might come knocking on your door.

Also I'll be dead by then if I'm right so someone else is gonna have to hold you to this.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (6): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

El Barto (1): Csargo

Choxorn (5): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

Well I think this is the towniest he’s ever been in any game I’ve played with him. I haven’t gone through and checked in what ways it is different, but just because someone’s different doesn’t make them scum.

You and I often disagree on who is being townie or not.

I get why you and most other people have him as town, I did too. That being said, ever since I put him at the top of my town he's been doing his best to capitalize on his town cred and get people to not listen to me and to take control of the thread. I expect that he'll do this, but specifically what he's been doing and how and who, all looks extremely bad if my reads outside of him were correct.

He's deep wolfing extremely well right now, more than he's towning, imo. If I had a vig shot I'd shoot him tonight since he's never gonna be lynched because only me and Monty can even see it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I feel that this statement comes from a tunneled perspective. You see it as coming from a wolf because you are already so certain of your push.
50/50

Yeah, you're probably right. But I think this is equally likely as of now. Since he won't die by town lynch I'd have to vig him, that's the only way to tell if I'm right.

If he flips wolf, the wolf team is utterly destroyed. His plan of action is just obvious. It can only be to his benefit if he never dies.

[Dp101]

You and I often disagree on who is being townie or not.

I get why you and most other people have him as town, I did too. That being said, ever since I put him at the top of my town he's been doing his best to capitalize on his town cred and get people to not listen to me and to take control of the thread. I expect that he'll do this, but specifically what he's been doing and how and who, all looks extremely bad if my reads outside of him were correct.

He's deep wolfing extremely well right now, more than he's towning, imo. If I had a vig shot I'd shoot him tonight since he's never gonna be lynched because only me and Monty can even see it.

Look, if it’s me and him in F3, I’ll vote him, because he should not be alive at that stage, but before then, I don’t think it’s a good option.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is why I try not to go too hard in the paint on D1 as a wolf. If you ever die early when you do, the spew is insane. Gives town a lot of free townies and damns some partners too perhaps.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Look, if it’s me and him in F3, I’ll vote him, because he should not be alive at that stage, but before then, I don’t think it’s a good option.

That's why I won't vote him. You won't be convinced until you see his card.

When you do and it is a wolf, the game is basically solved. He did too much today.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.
My gut says this post is great for Fredwood. Not saying GH is bad, in fact I don't think he is. Just think this is in line with what I've seen from him before. GH began with an attack on his process, so Fredwood is responding on that level. I also am feeling the same frustration with the lolconsensus argument. It's not an argument, it's an omen, and I don't believe in omens. Oh no, people are all voting someone, that must mean something. It doesn't. And it's been like 5 people or 6 people at a time. It's not an enormouswagon. It even got eclipsed by the choxorn voters. No such complaints that everyone thinks it it must be false have occurred. Attacking these arguments without necessarily drawing an alignment conclusion from it feels extremely natural, I don't feel it is passive aggression even if it has a similar-looking shape. It's questioning GH's process and methods in response to GH questioning his.

I feel like this kind of friction is going to happen on a day 1 where everyone has their own methods and ideas and all are struggling to win the debate and get their way. Even when people agree on suspects they begin to bicker on process.

It's like when town is chasing two scums in a mash but they still blow up at each other when the "wrong" one is getting pushed because everyone has to lead and get their way.

A perfect day is rare this early with this many opinions and personalities in the thread. When we see someone getting pushed, and we don't fully agree with the suspect or the methods, we push back. When we can't get our preferred person pushed, we have a lot of pent up energy and we start to look for enemies among those who seem to agree but won't cooperate.

I think there's underlying tension in the thread that is erupting in this post between Fred and GH and I don't think either person is mafia.

Maybe I'm not precisely describing what's happening here, and it might be coupled with other things on my mind, but here it is. My reaction is I think this is town/town and that some of the disputes that will happen here are expected, natural, and even nitpicky.

[Csargo]

I am sorry I didn't get to this quickly. I might have answered it already, but if not, nudge me.

If I lynch some of your suspects and they turn out to be a wolf, I might still call for you to be lynched. Some of those interactions look bad.

Knowing that, would you still help me lynch them if you think they are a wolf?

Let's say I gave it two shots. Logic being the first to go, choxorn second, or vice-versa. Let's say both flip wolf.

I think that's what is gonna happen. If I list your name in the POE after that, are you still gonna help me lynch them?

I'll give you one more chance to not be lynched if you help me lynch a deep wolf after that, but otherwise I might come knocking on your door.

Also I'll be dead by then if I'm right so someone else is gonna have to hold you to this.

Vote:Logic

Also, this isn't what I asked for, but it'll do.

I'm not really concerned with where you put me in your POE, because if I'm lynched I've played the best town game I can under the circumstances. I mean I'm not just going to rollover and die, I'll definitely fight you on that front, but if you choose to lynch me after those two, then that's how it's going to go.

I'm not sure what you're referring to with the interactions bit. I've always responded to accusations btw, just with varying degrees of seriousness regardless of alignment imo. I'm pretty sure you talked somewhere about that.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I have residual doubt on Zack, too, might just be paranoia but might not be. And I still think it's weird that he'd call out Pizza for going after what he calls "low hanging fruit" in Logic and Csargo, and then Zack proceeds to, 2 pages later, start going hard after El Barto, the lowest possible hanging of low hanging fruit.
Distancing, bolded why. ^ He might be right but he's going about it wrong. I think it's more a pro wrestler's punch, designed to look like they're opposed but it doesn't actually leave a bruise.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I sense something between GH and Winston. I cant point my finger into it yet, but i hope others will oit it under scrutiny as well. Maybe its just one of them, but my gut is giving strange vibes. GH can you elaborate concerning Chox and also wgat you think about Winston?

I pretty much had my big post about Choxorn already, the long story short of it is I don't think he's within his town meta.

Here's the link (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762208&viewfull=1#post2053762208)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Oh right, the Winston part.

Town, probably, don't have a bigger read on him than that right now.

[Montmorency]

I don't think the case is totally without merit, but I think it's grasping at straws a bit- Town El Barto is also prone to complaining about how active the thread is and Town El Barto also loves to OMGUS people. And it's for sure a low-hanging fruit case, because El Barto is, by virtue of his unconventional play, always a low-hanging fruit case that scum love to go after at some point.

This is true. It's part of why I wanted pressure on you, that the sudden twist against Barto and Manasi seemed like scraping the floor.


But now it's time to wonder what the Choxorn vs Logic means about Manasi and Barto, and the Logic wagon, and everyone else.


Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (7): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes <<< Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (5): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


I'm assuming Choxorn and Logic aren't both scum. Well, it's possible but with this spread I don't want to actually analyze the whole game. Clearly Choxorn scum makes the whole wagon atp look good (especially when ruling out m/m). On the Logic wagon, these are mostly committed and long-term votes, they came out early and stuck around.

If Choxorn town and Logic scum, that makes 1 or 2 scum certain on the Choxorn wagon, coming out toward EOD. Zack and Reinoe look worst, Reinoe because he inserts himself firmly when he appears, but overall there's not much substance. So it's a good time to latch on to a counterwagon, I suppose.

Winston has been town-lean overall and not afraid to move his vote from time to time, so he is better left until after the flip.
Csargo coming out agreeing to Pizza's schedule, the latest Logic vote.
Barto, Cuth, Xiahou, Manasi, Fredwood, so far off-wagon.


Now quickly, what if both Logic and Choxorn are town? 2 off-wagon scum makes sense in that case, and 1 on the major wagons to make a team of 3 or 4 would be the perfect spread. How people have been pushing each other becomes very important in this case, since scum are most likely well-distributed and lower-activity. Maybe in that case Zack or GH feinted at Barto and Manasi to leave a distancing mark. Leave this for night talk.


I think we should try to set up a tie between Choxorn and Logic and see who manipulates the tie, since scum often get caught this way. Pizza, in the best version of today your Logic case is like your novice case from the end of D1 XCOM, and Tdome around novice is how we got Manasi outed, and the Tdome around Manasi is how we got BSmith outed...

So let's get this tied up into the end stretch

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote:Logic

Also, this isn't what I asked for, but it'll do.

I'm not really concerned with where you put me in your POE, because if I'm lynched I've played the best town game I can under the circumstances. I mean I'm not just going to rollover and die, I'll definitely fight you on that front, but if you choose to lynch me after those two, then that's how it's going to go.

I'm not sure what you're referring to with the interactions bit. I've always responded to accusations btw, just with varying degrees of seriousness regardless of alignment imo. I'm pretty sure you talked somewhere about that.

I can work with this.

I'm being up front with you and I hope if you're town that's helping you see the board better. You don't get town credits from me for either a logic or choxorn flip at this point, but I'd still want you to lynch there.

If you shot Zack and he flipped mafia, you can have infinity town credits tho.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (7): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (5): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is true. It's part of why I wanted pressure on you, that the sudden twist against Barto and Manasi seemed like scraping the floor.

I had a quick comment:

In the choxorn/Logic w/w universe, there is massive confusion benefit to defending one and pushing the other. Use that to bury Zack if he's not mechanically clear by late game and both of them flipped wolf.

If two wolves are under fire, but you hard defend one and push the other and get the other lynched, you steal all the momentum from town at the exact same cost of not winning that particular battle. And if you lose the battle, you still look good later or your partner you never eliminated does.

That's elite wolfing, never ever let anyone get away with it in the W/W universe. Anyone who hard defended one and pushed the other must be critically examined and not reach LYLO.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would reluctantly allow GH to be pushed in such a universe, but I think the better bet is Zack.

[Zack]

but I get the feeling this is just another jarrema in ikea mafia moment
complete with pizza calling to kill me because I couldn't possibly disagree with him and be town

I hate 72 hour days, but I posted 200 times trying to solve anyways because I can't help myself.

I have no pretzels this time, but bye anyways. I'm convinced this is an exact repeat of that game, so I won't waste my time. Enjoy your mislynch. Enjoy my dead town body tomorrow.

[Slaan]

complete with pizza calling to kill me because I couldn't possibly disagree with him and be town

I hate 72 hour days, but I posted 200 times trying to solve anyways because I can't help myself.

I have no pretzels this time, but bye anyways. I'm convinced this is an exact repeat of that game, so I won't waste my time. Enjoy your mislynch. Enjoy my dead town body tomorrow.

Don't quit the game just because one player is tunneling you? >_>

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm not moving and I cannot just sit here for the next 45 minutes (now 30), I'm too deeply invested in this lynch.

If the flip is what I think it is, I need all of night phase to really give it my best and final analysis before end of night, for obvious reasons, and to make sure any shot I may or may not have lands correctly.

Know what I'm sayin'? I'm the king of insult comic Grandmasters (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FD0Cjw1E17c), Ben Finegold. Eh takes shot(s) at audience and doesn't afraid of anything.

See more here, whole playlist:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVWaFpMwtaGiBxi79IUqnqn67WF5g5PR4

I'm even gonna tell you what your initial assessment of the man will be. God this guy is a jerk, how can he insult his students like that. What an A hole. Yep. That's what I thought too. You have to watch him for a while before you realize he's not being serious because he's that deadpan. He's also great with the kids and the kids love him. And his adult students. And other GMs. He's highly successful among those who take the time to get to know him because you then understand he's just doing shtick. Once you get to know he's not being serious, it becomes funny. You have to give it a chance.

It's worth watching a few videos, if you can stand chess. If not then the jokes might be spaced too thinly to hold your interest. But he tells a lot of the same jokes and has joking "chess rules" like "never play f6" and "always retreat", which are jokes because he says the jokes even when those rules do not make sense for that position, but they're true often enough that it becomes funny. By the way, if I randed some other GM I'd totally choose to roleplay as this guy anyway, so maybe this is all fake.

*shifty eyes*

If I get roleblocked and killed that's fine. Believe in the power of solving without special powers helping you, vanilla townie is the strongest power because then you actually have to focus on analyzing the game on your own merits and then you get better. Games are tougher to analyze when they're full of power roles and then suddenly they aren't, right Fred?

Anyway need to go relax and get my mind off of things for a while. Nerves.

[Slaan]

This is true. It's part of why I wanted pressure on you, that the sudden twist against Barto and Manasi seemed like scraping the floor.


But now it's time to wonder what the Choxorn vs Logic means about Manasi and Barto, and the Logic wagon, and everyone else.




I'm assuming Choxorn and Logic aren't both scum. Well, it's possible but with this spread I don't want to actually analyze the whole game. Clearly Choxorn scum makes the whole wagon atp look good (especially when ruling out m/m). On the Logic wagon, these are mostly committed and long-term votes, they came out early and stuck around.

If Choxorn town and Logic scum, that makes 1 or 2 scum certain on the Choxorn wagon, coming out toward EOD. Zack and Reinoe look worst, Reinoe because he inserts himself firmly when he appears, but overall there's not much substance. So it's a good time to latch on to a counterwagon, I suppose.

Winston has been town-lean overall and not afraid to move his vote from time to time, so he is better left until after the flip.
Csargo coming out agreeing to Pizza's schedule, the latest Logic vote.
Barto, Cuth, Xiahou, Manasi, Fredwood, so far off-wagon.


Now quickly, what if both Logic and Choxorn are town? 2 off-wagon scum makes sense in that case, and 1 on the major wagons to make a team of 3 or 4 would be the perfect spread. How people have been pushing each other becomes very important in this case, since scum are most likely well-distributed and lower-activity. Maybe in that case Zack or GH feinted at Barto and Manasi to leave a distancing mark. Leave this for night talk.


I think we should try to set up a tie between Choxorn and Logic and see who manipulates the tie, since scum often get caught this way. Pizza, in the best version of today your Logic case is like your novice case from the end of D1 XCOM, and Tdome around novice is how we got Manasi outed, and the Tdome around Manasi is how we got BSmith outed...

So let's get this tied up into the end stretch

I don't like this. Wagonomics are iffy as is, preflip wagonomics is a bullshit science and I don't agree with most points being raised here. With Logics weak play so far most mafia would probably just bus here, same if Chox is mafia. They can also very well both be mafia, don't see why not. If we have a deepwolf in the making he wouldnt try to save either of them and just bus since there are no investigative roles that could be dangerous to him.

We can try for the tie but again, unlikely that a wolf would at this point brazenly try to save a buddy.... well he might just because I just said that I'd find that unlikely etc etc. There is nothing to be gained by trying to artificially create a certain gamestate and hope a mafia outs himself... that just doesnt happen in my experience.

So your post is one that seems solvey but isnt and that's wolfy in my book.

[Zack]

Don't quit the game just because one player is tunneling you? >_>
I'm just trying to provoke Pizza into shooting me so I can spend all my free time killing orcs in Shadow of War starting tuesday without feeling guilty. Don't spoil the secret, please.

[Slaan]

I'm not going to comment on pizzas last post >_<

[GeneralHankerchief]

Out of principle, I'm staying on Choxorn.

[Zack]

Got busy with RL, and now have almost 1000 posts. Sheesh. If I survive, I should be more productive on the next day phase.

I'm going to park my vote on Choxorn, because it might mean I survive the day. If I don't, then C'est la vie.

If nothing else, I gotta do the most town thing I can, and save someone I know is a townie (me.)

Unvote: Kage

Vote: Choxorn.

I thought this post was really pure btw.

Think a wolf tries to justify it with some half-baked case, to try and look like hey I really suspect this guy!

Instead he just says: Sorry, I'm busy, I will try to save myself. No bullshit.

[Montmorency]

I don't like this. Wagonomics are iffy as is, preflip wagonomics is a bullshit science and I don't agree with most points being raised here. With Logics weak play so far most mafia would probably just bus here, same if Chox is mafia. They can also very well both be mafia, don't see why not. If we have a deepwolf in the making he wouldnt try to save either of them and just bus since there are no investigative roles that could be dangerous to him.

We can try for the tie but again, unlikely that a wolf would at this point brazenly try to save a buddy.... well he might just because I just said that I'd find that unlikely etc etc. There is nothing to be gained by trying to artificially create a certain gamestate and hope a mafia outs himself... that just doesnt happen in my experience.

So your post is one that seems solvey but isnt and that's wolfy in my book.

Fair enough, but think of it this way: if it were already a tie, how would that affect your "pre-flip wagonomics" (since obviously we all have to take it into consideration, which doesn't mean we're making definitive statements, just listing possibilities to compare against future events)?

[Zack]

is it too late for a cfd to monty?

[Montmorency]

is it too late for a cfd to monty?

Go for it.

[Zack]

Askthepizzaguy only, oog


complete with pizza calling to kill me because I couldn't possibly disagree with him and be town

I hate 72 hour days, but I posted 200 times trying to solve anyways because I can't help myself.

I have no pretzels this time, but bye anyways. I'm convinced this is an exact repeat of that game, so I won't waste my time. Enjoy your mislynch. Enjoy my dead town body tomorrow.

I've looked back at that game some

I remembered wrong

You were pretty damn fair to me, even while visor was losing his mind wanting you to go after me harder

:iloveyou:

[Slaan]

Fair enough, but think of it this way: if it were already a tie, how would that affect your "pre-flip wagonomics" (since obviously we all have to take it into consideration, which doesn't mean we're making definitive statements, just listing possibilities to compare against future events)?

I wouldnt comment on it. To say what I except a mafia to do will invalidate everything anyone does as this thought will be in everyones mind.

'mafia would save a buddy here'
'mafia would bus here'

All this influences how a mafia (and even townies) will play and give us false positives as it forces ppl to player differently than they usually would. That doesnt affect me much since I don't have meta but on principle I dont like it. Analyse how votes were cast the next day if it's just about the vote itself and not the progression.

[Zack]

Go for it.

Vote: Montmorency

[Montmorency]

I wouldnt comment on it. To say what I except a mafia to do will invalidate everything anyone does as this thought will be in everyones mind.

'mafia would save a buddy here'
'mafia would bus here'

All this influences how a mafia (and even townies) will play and give us false positives as it forces ppl to player differently than they usually would. That doesnt affect me much since I don't have meta but on principle I dont like it. Analyse how votes were cast the next day if it's just about the vote itself and not the progression.

I don't think it's true to any great extent, unless you assume that voicing possibilities in-thread about what Mafia are thinking will lead Mafia to go, "Doh, I can't believe we didn't consider that, let's do it immediately", or otherwise change their calculations dramatically.

[Zack]

:charge:

[Slaan]

I don't think it's true to any great extent, unless you assume that voicing possibilities in-thread about what Mafia are thinking will lead Mafia to go, "Doh, I can't believe we didn't consider that, let's do it immediately", or otherwise change their calculations dramatically.

Not about what they're thinking now but about what they would do in the future.

[Kagemusha]

More posts i read from this Slaander fellow. Better i statt to like about his way of thinking.:yes:

[Zack]

https://i.imgur.com/lpNVne9.gif

[Zack]

https://i.imgur.com/efuaaHM.gif

[Slaan]

Probably most important wagons rn:

Logic (7): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Monty (1): Zack

Choxorn (4): Montmorency, GH, Reinoe, Logic

[Montmorency]

Not about what they're thinking now but about what they would do in the future.

Can you elaborate?

[Zack]

https://i.imgur.com/pvCnUGc.gif

[Slaan]

More posts i read from this Slaander fellow. Better i statt to like about his way of thinking.:yes:

Don't slaander me :(

[Zack]

https://i.imgur.com/zYRHo4l.gif

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (7): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (4): Montmorency, GH, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Montmorency (1): Zack

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Slaan]

Can you elaborate?

... tomorrow. This is not a conversation for the last 10min of EoD with a possible CFD ^^

[Dp101]

Zack please do not do this. Monty really hasn't done much AI at this point, other than be wrong, and we haven't even confirmed if he is wrong yet, I just think he is.

[Zack]

You guys are boring.

[Dp101]

I mean, when have CFDs ever helped anyone. They always seem to exchange a reasonable lynch option for one that is essentially rand.

[Dp101]

You guys are boring.

Interesting != winning.

[Zack]

I mean, when have CFDs ever helped anyone. They always seem to exchange a reasonable lynch option for one that is essentially rand.

Your team literally just got destroyed by a CFD in a game where you were a wolf.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I mean, when have CFDs ever helped anyone. They always seem to exchange a reasonable lynch option for one that is essentially rand.

I seem to recall you being the successful target of one in Jabbz's game.

And I don't think this is something you would forget either.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Vote: Dp101

[Zack]

pretty sure i gave dp too much credit early

have not liked his posting much since then

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (7): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Montmorency (1): Zack

Dp101 (1): GH

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Zack]

gh is a gentleman and a scholar

[GeneralHankerchief]

gh is a gentleman and a scholar

Join me.

In all seriousness he's been on the business end of CFDs at least twice, one of them directly and he still pulls out that line.

[Dp101]

Vote: Dp101

I don't believe this.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Join me.

In all seriousness he's been on the business end of CFDs at least twice, one of them directly and he still pulls out that line.

Business end of SUCCESSFUL CFDs, even*

[Dp101]

pretty sure i gave dp too much credit early

have not liked his posting much since then

I really really don't believe this. Pizza was right. Vote: Zack

[Zack]

The Logic lynch was never in doubt from very, very early in this game.

Refusal to move off. Resistance to counters.

If he's town, wasted 72 hours.

If he's a wolf, he was bussed into the ground.

[Dp101]

Business end of SUCCESSFUL CFDs, even*

Ok, and because it worked a couple of times I'm supposed to love them? You bring up examples when they have worked while forgetting the countless times they didn't.

[Zack]

I really really don't believe this. Pizza was right. Vote: Zack

omgus

[GeneralHankerchief]

Ok, and because it worked a couple of times I'm supposed to love them? You bring up examples when they have worked while forgetting the countless times they didn't.

I just can't believe you'd ever actually have that thought considering your own personal track record.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (2): Xiahou, Dp101

Logic (6): Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Montmorency (1): Zack

Dp101 (1): GH

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Zack]

Ok, and because it worked a couple of times I'm supposed to love them? You bring up examples when they have worked while forgetting the countless times they didn't.
This argument makes no sense.

Of course if you ignore the times they worked as huge successes, it looks like a bad strategy.

Moving votes around at EOD puts wolves in awkward, uncomfortable spots and forces people to put their money where there mouth is. I don't understand the stance you're taking here.

[Zack]

Vote: Dp101

[GeneralHankerchief]

VOTE DP DO IT

[Zack]

EOD peels away the mask and reveals true intentions.

Dp101 is a wolf.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (2): Xiahou, Dp101

Logic (6): Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Dp101 (2): GH, Zack

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


EOD1:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507413600.png

[Kagemusha]

Ok. What is this CFD? I feel like a grandpa with alzheimers around these fancy letter combinations.

[Dp101]

This argument makes no sense.

Of course if you ignore the times they worked as huge successes, it looks like a bad strategy.

Moving votes around at EOD puts wolves in awkward, uncomfortable spots and forces people to put their money where there mouth is. I don't understand the stance you're taking here.

I am saying that CFDs for the sake of CFDs are a poor idea that doesn't lead to good lynches. I'd much prefer to actually lynch scum through a sensible and reasonable method than suddenly switch around votes and kill town just for the sake of "reactions".

[Zack]

Ok. What is this CFD? I feel like a grandpa with alzheimers around these fancy letter combinations.
Chinese Fire Drill.

Change the lynch to someone else at the end of the day.

[Dp101]

EOD peels away the mask and reveals true intentions.

Dp101 is a wolf.

Right back at you.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Ok. What is this CFD? I feel like a grandpa with alzheimers around these fancy letter combinations.

Chinese Fire Drill - last second lynch on someone who previously wasn't in contention, usually because you don't have a good feeling about things.

Or if somebody slips up.

[Slaan]

Uhm so with 1min to go it's not gonna happen but I agree that it looks bad for dp...

[Winston Hughes]

VOTE DP DO IT

Nah.

[Zack]

I am saying that CFDs for the sake of CFDs are a poor idea that doesn't lead to good lynches. I'd much prefer to actually lynch scum through a sensible and reasonable method than suddenly switch around votes and kill town just for the sake of "reactions".
I never said it was for the sake of anything.

You and Monty are both better lynches than Logic.

Your oversimplistic reduction of my argument is nagl.

[Dp101]

VOTE DP DO IT

Could you look any more desperate here? I honestly don't believe that either of you are town anymore after how you've been playing recently.

[Zack]

Right back at you.

dp101 is a wolf right back at me?

[Sooh]

THAT'S A LYNCH!

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (2): Xiahou, Dp101

Logic (6): Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Dp101 (2): GH, Zack

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


Standby for flip.

[Zack]

boo

[El Barto]

I'm highly suspicious of Cho, rest is fine
So why are you not voting somebody of whom you are highly suspicious?

I'm bored.

Vote: Choxorn
If you need help with British idioms, ask Winston, but I will say that this is very boring of you.

[Sooh]

So, ladies and gentlemen,

there you have it. On this, the tournament's first (really really long) day,

one player is eliminated.

Logic was:

Hikaru Nakamura.

http://www.thechessdrum.net/tournaments/Nakamura-Aronian/photos/Hikaru_Nakamura2.jpg

You are a four time US Chess Champion, and you once wrote a book about bullet chess. You peaked in 2015 with a 2816 rating, but currently your rating is a measly 2781. You are a shadow of your former self, and you would like to earn back some of your former glory.

Because of this, you have joined ranks with three other individuals, and in your secret lair you plot for revenge on a chess world that's full of power struggles, drama and sore losers. You also bring something extra special to the team. You have the power to ensure that your team's biggest enemy is eliminated (1x strongman).

Night 1 ends at:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507500000.png

[Slaan]

If I read the rules correctly we can talk during the night?

[Zack]

four wolves confirmed

[Sooh]

If I read the rules correctly we can talk during the night?

Correct.

[Askthepizzaguy]

BAM!

Get me a Perrier!

And a doctor! STAT!

[Zack]

I still don't like Monty, Choxorn, or Dp.

[Csargo]

lol good times

[GeneralHankerchief]

Current self-portrait:

https://i.imgur.com/N1NYRuv.jpg

Good job, everyone. :2thumbsup:

[Kagemusha]

One down. Three left. This vecomes interesting..

[Slaan]

So why are you not voting somebody of whom you are highly suspicious?

Because Logic was scummier imo, thought I made that clear. I want to kill Chox tomorrow though, his vote on Logic felt very much like a bus vote.

[Montmorency]

That's an informative reveal. 4 scum and Logic had a strongman. Slaan, do you think it's cool to game out scenarios now?


I still don't like Monty, Choxorn, or Dp.

Why don't you like me or Choxorn?

[Slaan]

I still don't like Monty, Choxorn, or Dp.

Need to recheck on dp (was my first townread this game... his comments about CFD did feel off though so hm) but both chox and monty look like good next targets.

[Zack]

That's an informative reveal. 4 scum and Logic had a strongman. Slaan, do you think it's cool to game out scenarios now?



Why don't you like me or Choxorn?
I believe I've already explained choxorn

Your whole day just seems like pot-stirring. I didn't like your eod either.

[Dp101]

Zack and GH calling for a CFD just before a scum lynch is noted.

Also, all hail Pizza.

[Sooh]

EON 1
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507500000.png

[Montmorency]

I believe I've already explained choxorn

Your whole day just seems like pot-stirring. I didn't like your eod either.

:shrug:

What's wrong with my EOD?

[Zack]

Need to recheck on dp (was my first townread this game... his comments about CFD did feel off though so hm) but both chox and monty look like good next targets.

it reads like he wanted credit for his vote

OR he was worried about a stronger role getting the rope

[Dp101]

I still don't like Monty, Choxorn, or Dp.

Pushing a worldview that now makes no sense after one of your suspects literally just voted off of the scum lynch after you tried to CFD then is also noted.

[Zack]

Zack and GH calling for a CFD just before a scum lynch is noted.

Also, all hail Pizza.
I was calling for something besides Logic all day. We got lucky on the 25%. :shrug:

[Zack]

:shrug:

What's wrong with my EOD?
You seemed frozen and to not really have any strong feelings about who was lynched

villagers care about eod. effen theorem goat.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am extremely good with Logic's meta.

I'll be the first to admit my other suspects are not based in an enormously confident assessment of their meta. Those are just guesses.

Logic was also a guess, but he was wildly different for the reasons I noted, and it was apparent from the few posts after I initially suggested he was iffy. I upped the suspicion level dramatically because of how he passive aggressively went after Winston.

In my mind, that was the big blunder I could trap him on. I just had to convince people.

But if I somehow die tonight, my leans are not gospel. Play the game. Don't forget me but don't just disconnect your brains either.

My suspects if town need to be allowed to look for scums and not just get buried under "pizza said ur scum"

It's both more fun and better towning that way.

[Zack]

Pushing a worldview that now makes no sense after one of your suspects literally just voted off of the scum lynch after you tried to CFD then is also noted.
You literally were defending me and calling me your top town until I voted you.

[Winston Hughes]

pizza, that was like hunting with Renata.

Never had that level of mindmeld with anyone else before.

[Slaan]

That's an informative reveal. 4 scum and Logic had a strongman. Slaan, do you think it's cool to game out scenarios now?

Sure knock yourself out :)

My original point was that: I prefer natural wagon formations, ppl vote how they feel is right. If a player comes around though and says stuff like 'lets force a draw, then a mafia might out himself by trying to clutch save his buddy' (or smth like that) it disrupts the way ppl would usually vote and makes it artificial and thus useless. Ppl that then vote for player X just for the draw can't be really held responsible for that anymore, they don't have to put their vote where they mouth has been. Also there no way a mafia would be stupid enough to draw attention to himself in this situation so that doesnt gain us any infos as well...

Imo wagons need always be left alone and be played out.... with the exception of CFD's but even a CFD is still asking ppl to make a decision themselves...

I hope it's clear what I mean :)

[Zack]

It feels more like you realized Logic's flip would make me look bad, rather than having a genuine progression from townread --> wolfread.

[Dp101]

You literally were defending me and calling me your top town until I voted you.

Well yes, because your vote made absolutely no sense from my perspective.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think that lynch proves Winston Hughes is lock town, from where I sit.

Please consider that as likely. I think the passive aggression was directed at a townie.

[Montmorency]

You seemed frozen and to not really have any strong feelings about who was lynched

villagers care about eod. effen theorem goat.

Strong feelings? I acknowledged for half a day that Pizza's case on Logic was solid. I never expected the Chox wagon to blow up.

I did care about EOD.

[Zack]

I am extremely good with Logic's meta.

I'll be the first to admit my other suspects are not based in an enormously confident assessment of their meta. Those are just guesses.

Logic was also a guess, but he was wildly different for the reasons I noted, and it was apparent from the few posts after I initially suggested he was iffy. I upped the suspicion level dramatically because of how he passive aggressively went after Winston.

In my mind, that was the big blunder I could trap him on. I just had to convince people.

But if I somehow die tonight, my leans are not gospel. Play the game. Don't forget me but don't just disconnect your brains either.

My suspects if town need to be allowed to look for scums and not just get buried under "pizza said ur scum"

It's both more fun and better towning that way.

You said you thought there was a wolf bussing.

Who is it in your opinion? Chox?

[Dp101]

It feels more like you realized Logic's flip would make me look bad, rather than having a genuine progression from townread --> wolfread.

I can see why you would think that, but really it was a combination of how weird FMPOV your sudden switch on me looked and the part of me that always wants to believe whatever Pizza says, that I couldn't quite suppress.

[Askthepizzaguy]

pizza, that was like hunting with Renata.

Never had that level of mindmeld with anyone else before.

It was a great moment. It was my pleasure to work with you.

Sorry if I seemed a bit arrogant today you guys. I was half roleplaying and half super duper sure about a day one wolf read, I'd have been seriously seriously doubting myself if he flipped town here.

I couldn't afford to see him flip town. That wouldn't have been good for me.

[Zack]

Well yes, because your vote made absolutely no sense from my perspective.

What should I have done? Sit on my butt?

I don't care if you don't like how I play, you're not the first nor the last. But I don't buy that you think it makes me a wolf.

[Zack]

Strong feelings? I acknowledged for half a day that Pizza's case on Logic was solid. I never expected the Chox wagon to blow up.

I did care about EOD.
You certainly did not express strong feelings on Logic.

[Montmorency]

Sure knock yourself out :)

My original point was that: I prefer natural wagon formations, ppl vote how they feel is right. If a player comes around though and says stuff like 'lets force a draw, then a mafia might out himself by trying to clutch save his buddy' (or smth like that) it disrupts the way ppl would usually vote and makes it artificial and thus useless. Ppl that then vote for player X just for the draw can't be really held responsible for that anymore, they don't have to put their vote where they mouth has been. Also there no way a mafia would be stupid enough to draw attention to himself in this situation so that doesnt gain us any infos as well...

Imo wagons need always be left alone and be played out.... with the exception of CFD's but even a CFD is still asking ppl to make a decision themselves...

I hope it's clear what I mean :)

I see what you mean. I thought you were more objecting to my giving analysis based on potential flip.

I would have liked to see how things developed from a tie, but asking for a "forced" one isn't great.

[Zack]

I can see why you would think that, but really it was a combination of how weird FMPOV your sudden switch on me looked and the part of me that always wants to believe whatever Pizza says, that I couldn't quite suppress.

sounds like a you problem, not a me problem

[reinoe]

A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You said you thought there was a wolf bussing.

Who is it in your opinion? Chox?

I do think so. I believe in my posts I covered it, but I will go back, re-assess, and go into more detail.

The others on that wagon looked good. Csargo iffy as stated, but I wouldn't start with him. Give him a little space.

Choxorn I think is absolutely the next person to be pressed and thought about. No auto lynch, but seriously look at all his posts for motive.

A lot of other good people who hunt well that I trust were on this one. If you're town, you were also all over it, iirc, so please look.

Also look to see if he's somehow a townie. It's bad if we get overconfident and forget to look for reasons why that could be the case as well.

[Kagemusha]

While GH and i go as way back when it comes to mafia so long as Org and mafia. I think my old friend needs now real scrutiny. I sensed real reluctancy when it came to lynching Logic and with 4 scum in 17 players they really could have tried to manipulate this first vote.

[Montmorency]

You certainly did not express strong feelings on Logic.

That's my point. So why would I suddenly develop strong feelings if nothing had changed?

[Dp101]

What should I have done? Sit on my butt?

I don't care if you don't like how I play, you're not the first nor the last. But I don't buy that you think it makes me a wolf.

Trying to switch wagons away from someone who has done basically nothing towny up to that point (not that there was that much scumminess IMO, just a lack of anything good) to someone who at worst, hadn't cleared himself that much doesn't strike you as a highly suspicious action? Like, it really came across as a desperate attempt to save a buddy in a way that wouldn't make you look as bad if he still flipped (because people would ask why scum would try and CFD onto a completely random lynch rather than a closer wagon). Even so, you calling for a CFD wasn't enough for me to start scumreading you, what set me off is how you decided that me disliking the idea of a CFD at all, after having held that opinion in every single mafia game I have ever played, was somehow scummy.

[Zack]

That's my point. So why would I suddenly develop strong feelings if nothing had changed?
That's not what I said.

You never had any strong feelings, on anything. You stirred the pot and watched the chaos.

[Askthepizzaguy]

A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

Yeah, especially if they were pretty forced to by a big push.

It's quite useful, but not useful enough. Worth arguing in defense of, but I wouldn't bet the whole wolf team on stopping such a lynch.

[Dp101]

Pizza, how does the abortive CFD attempt fit into your current worldview? Do you think that it makes GH or Zack more scummy, or that it's NAI, or something else?

[Montmorency]

That's not what I said.

You never had any strong feelings, on anything. You stirred the pot and watched the chaos.

I called it as I saw it. You were the one dipping your stirring rod or whatever.

[Zack]

Trying to switch wagons away from someone who has done basically nothing towny up to that point (not that there was that much scumminess IMO, just a lack of anything good) to someone who at worst, hadn't cleared himself that much doesn't strike you as a highly suspicious action? Like, it really came across as a desperate attempt to save a buddy in a way that wouldn't make you look as bad if he still flipped (because people would ask why scum would try and CFD onto a completely random lynch rather than a closer wagon). Even so, you calling for a CFD wasn't enough for me to start scumreading you, what set me off is how you decided that me disliking the idea of a CFD at all, after having held that opinion in every single mafia game I have ever played, was somehow scummy.
You can't see why, immediately after a CFD absolutely devastated your wolf team in a recent game, you getting seemingly antsy and belligerent at the mere thought of a cfd might seem odd to me?

It's not how I treat wolf partners, anyway. Look at any wolf game of mine, if someone is struggling like Logic and never going to recover I cut them loose.

Your sudden paranoia seems contrived.

[Zack]

afk for awhile

[Askthepizzaguy]

While GH and i go as way back when it comes to mafia so long as Org and mafia. I think my old friend needs now real scrutiny. I sensed real reluctancy when it came to lynching Logic and with 4 scum in 17 players they really could have tried to manipulate this first vote.

I think a deep vet wolf might have argued for a reprieve and I will look at GH more seriously.

I still need to find which person I'm accusing is townie, particularly if I have more than one. Accuracy is super important to continue the opening success.

Give you my opinion. I feel like in Zack or GH I let a scumbag infiltrate my town, but I haven't completely flushed the idea that either could be town. Maybe both somehow.

It has to be done correctly. Both are really good players I don't want to die without giving them a chance to really get their hooks into this game, if town.

Why are they town is an important question to consider, not just how can I suspect them. I have reason to suspect many people but not all can be scum.

Who is a townie you'd save from death and why are they a townie/

[Montmorency]

Trying to switch wagons away from someone who has done basically nothing towny up to that point (not that there was that much scumminess IMO, just a lack of anything good) to someone who at worst, hadn't cleared himself that much doesn't strike you as a highly suspicious action? Like, it really came across as a desperate attempt to save a buddy in a way that wouldn't make you look as bad if he still flipped (because people would ask why scum would try and CFD onto a completely random lynch rather than a closer wagon). Even so, you calling for a CFD wasn't enough for me to start scumreading you, what set me off is how you decided that me disliking the idea of a CFD at all, after having held that opinion in every single mafia game I have ever played, was somehow scummy.

I'm still not sure how to interpret the CFD thing. At first I thought Zack was trolling me.

As far as saving Logic, I doubt any of this was with the expectation that you would genuinely be lynched. At least, I don't think Zack-scum would go so wild.

You had a slip - or a logical gap - but the whole exchange was so dramatic at the last minute as to seem pre-planned...

[Montmorency]

But then what's the point?

And you and Winston were rock-solid Logic voters from early on.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza, how does the abortive CFD attempt fit into your current worldview? Do you think that it makes GH or Zack more scummy, or that it's NAI, or something else?

I don't think you'd ever argue for a CFD.

I think you and I were both town, or I was scum and you were town, and I tried to get you to CFD someone, or GH did, or... I mean I've seen you refuse to cfd before. It would be weird here if you advocated for it or went along with it.

Even if you were scum I think that sticks out your neck too much for a partner who has third degree pizza oven burns. And I don't really think you're scum.

I had an iffy post from you that I decided was just an odd vibe that I could explain.

I haven't seriously thought about you as a wolf this game. I don't see a big reason to start now, but if you were somehow scum I'd not be able to see it at this point I don't think, so I'd have to leave space for someone to make such an argument.

I'm already putting the brakes on people putting too much stock into my opinion. I can have a good read and suck on another. No one finds the entire wolf team day one and certainly not the king of bad day ones. I'm scum reading some townie. I think I'm scum reading scums too but the game is solved by finding all 4 not just 1, and not wasting a ton of townie lives rushing the rest of the process.

I also haven't read the posts after my last one before the flip because I was seriously nervous and couldn't handle it anymore.

[Dp101]

You can't see why, immediately after a CFD absolutely devastated your wolf team in a recent game, you getting seemingly antsy and belligerent at the mere thought of a cfd might seem odd to me?

It's not how I treat wolf partners, anyway. Look at any wolf game of mine, if someone is struggling like Logic and never going to recover I cut them loose.

Your sudden paranoia seems contrived.

I wouldn't describe that game as recent, at all. It's recent in org terms, but I've played many more games on MU since then and TBH had forgotten most of the details from then. The only part I remembered was when I was on the chopping block, trying to start a CFD on Monty to try and get out of the lynch. I had misremembered and thought that my lynch had been a consistent push throughout the day, and so, I had it in my head that the only role CFDs had in that game was to almost save the mafia. I also did not know that you would not try to save scumbuddies in this situation.

[El Barto]

I'm bored.

Vote: Choxorn

Vote: Dp101
I'm parking my vote on you tomorrow.

[reinoe]

So why are you not voting somebody of whom you are highly suspicious?

If you need help with British idioms, ask Winston, but I will say that this is very boring of you.
Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

[Zack]

I wouldn't describe that game as recent, at all. It's recent in org terms, but I've played many more games on MU since then and TBH had forgotten most of the details from then. The only part I remembered was when I was on the chopping block, trying to start a CFD on Monty to try and get out of the lynch. I had misremembered and thought that my lynch had been a consistent push throughout the day, and so, I had it in my head that the only role CFDs had in that game was to almost save the mafia. I also did not know that you would not try to save scumbuddies in this situation.

Xcom on mu

[Askthepizzaguy]

reinoe, if I die will you carry my candle and make sure someone isn't forgotten about for me?

I'll let you know who it is by end of night. I just want one good read I'm pretty sure about to not completely vanish.

If you just blatantly disagree with it that's fine, you can decline. There are other ways someone can die even if there's a doc.

[Winston Hughes]

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

[reinoe]

reinoe, if I die will you carry my candle and make sure someone isn't forgotten about for me?

I'll let you know who it is by end of night. I just want one good read I'm pretty sure about to not completely vanish.

If you just blatantly disagree with it that's fine, you can decline. There are other ways someone can die even if there's a doc.
I'm flattered. I'll do my best. Shouldn't you select someone who's more familiar with site meta etc though?

[reinoe]

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.
How so?

[reinoe]

you have joined ranks with three other individuals
Is this normal? Do players normally get told how many scum are in the game?

[Winston Hughes]

How so?

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Askthepizzaguy (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=23872) only, oog

OOG

I really really don't like getting your alignment wrong and I'm deeply aware of how much it must suck for me to push on you and also be lock town.

I know if you're scum I have to push you, but that doesn't mean I like it, and I'd really still like to have a good town/town mindmeld game.

I just can't do it based purely of a meta of wanting to do it. I gotta follow my heart as much as it sucks, man.

I regret that we don't mindmeld or rand town together often. I know you've heard me say that before and then push you to death, but in every case, I'm just trying to be true and play the game.

Those things are being considered and it's painful when I feel like I have to ignore them. If this game didn't involve other people who might have a bad time if I'm wrong / push them too hard, I'd be less nervous about my own play.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza, how does the abortive CFD attempt fit into your current worldview? Do you think that it makes GH or Zack more scummy, or that it's NAI, or something else?

Ok I read up.

It is suspicious but not proof. Look to their body of work, motives, determine if either are town, neither are town, or both are town. Look into each instance with a clear head and try to strip your own confirm bias out of your assessment.

Think with a clear head, both have a great day one for analysis purposes. If we are the jedi we claim to be, we can use the force to sense the dark side is or is not present based on what they've given us.

I like to be able to analyze people who give me something, Zack and GH have both played the game, and well imo, did their jobs regardless of whatever team they are on, tried to win for their team regardless of alignment, and deserve a good and fair look.

If we're good, we can now solve them. That should be half the point of being a talker style player.

We have a dead wolf, we have spew, we can look for motive, we can try to find their process if either or both are town. We have the power and they gave it to us.

Yes, both cfd attempts look really bad from both. But they've given us so much we cannot damn them on that alone.

GH often does the cfd. He can do it as both alignments. Zack has done them as well. Sometimes they are pro-town.

Look for other reasons and other clues. Were they doing it to fight for town? Look at everything else they've done to determine that.

I give snap reads and change my mind on a dime but those are reads. A real process still must take place when we have the space to do that process. Now's a good time.

[Choxorn]

https://i.makeagif.com/media/5-07-2014/Xwi0ha.gif


If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

This post also looks bad:


A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

Scum Reinoe would for sure say this to try to direct attention at the Logic wagon if there wasn't any bussing.

If there is bussing, OTOH, I'd say it's Csargo and/or Slaan. Winston looks townie af to me, and I also lean town on Kagemusha and Pizza.


Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

How so?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm flattered. I'll do my best. Shouldn't you select someone who's more familiar with site meta etc though?

Let the meta knowledge people solve by meta.

I often go to other forums and read people better because I don't have the meta, I have generic meta and I see something is scummy and others can write it off because they always do something similar, and miss the forest for the trees. Similar is not the same. Don't let scummy things happen just because they match a person's meta in a similar sense.

You won't be bogged down by such biases, you should be able to be more objective.

Plus, in spite of some folks pushing you, I feel like I got your alignment right and quickly based on your posts and vote movements, targets, and arguments. I think I let a scum into my town and I don't think it's you, so this is where I'm putting it. Plus Winston is in danger and is a decent alternative doc target tonight imo and they can't cover both.

[Winston Hughes]

Well I think this is the towniest he’s ever been in any game I’ve played with him. I haven’t gone through and checked in what ways it is different, but just because someone’s different doesn’t make them scum.

With apologies to Dp101, this post really dialed up my suspicions of Zack.

The meld with pizza was at its strongest at that moment, and the difference between our models of Zack's mind and the one Dp was using felt significant.

As pizza (iirc) said early in the game, Dp has all the potential in the world (champs wildcard less than a year after first contact says a lot), but his mental models of scumplay are still a little shallow.

And when it comes to Zack, who is the best scumbag I've ever had the privilege of playing with or against, it's really only in the contrast between layers that any kind of tell is likely to show.

If he is scum here, though, then he's exploring new levels of sophistication. That I think it's possible at all shows just how highly I rate him.

[Dp101]

With apologies to Dp101, this post really dialed up my suspicions of Zack.

The meld with pizza was at its strongest at that moment, and the difference between our models of Zack's mind and the one Dp was using felt significant.

As pizza (iirc) said early in the game, Dp has all the potential in the world (champs wildcard less than a year after first contact says a lot), but his mental models of scumplay are still a little shallow.

And when it comes to Zack, who is the best scumbag I've ever had the privilege of playing with or against, it's really only in the contrast between layers that any kind of tell is likely to show.

If he is scum here, though, then he's exploring new levels of sophistication. That I think it's possible at all shows just how highly I rate him.

I feel victimised right here ;-;

[Zack]

Askthepizzaguy only, oog



I've looked back at that game some

I remembered wrong

You were pretty damn fair to me, even while visor was losing his mind wanting you to go after me harder

:iloveyou:

I just reached the part where you fake-claimed masons with a wolf, and made a huge push for me because "information" and "Zack's suggestions have been bad for town" (when I was defending villagers and pushing wolves).

:stare:

[Winston Hughes]

I feel victimised right here ;-;

:shame:

[Askthepizzaguy]

I feel victimised right here ;-;

You're beloved, keep playing with us.

Sith Lords are really good at looking like your best friend until they drop the mask, whip out the red saber, and turn up the force lightning.

If you're getting the sensation that this is happening to you this game, I think it's really possible.

Some people are really good at crawling inside your town spot. Keep that saber up to defend yourself. That's more important than finding scums, is just keeping them away from your inner circle of trust and sneaking past you.

Find townies but be right on those, that's important. Always re-assess, they're playing to get inside your town. And you'd be amazed at how townie some people can look to do it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I just reached the part where you fake-claimed masons with a wolf, and made a huge push for me because "information" and "Zack's suggestions have been bad for town" (when I was defending villagers and pushing wolves).

:stare:

I have bad games. Only for the grace of being an actual mason was I worth anything that game, iirc.

[Montmorency]

https://i.makeagif.com/media/5-07-2014/Xwi0ha.gif



This post also looks bad:



Scum Reinoe would for sure say this to try to direct attention at the Logic wagon if there wasn't any bussing.

If there is bussing, OTOH, I'd say it's Csargo and/or Slaan. Winston looks townie af to me, and I also lean town on Kagemusha and Pizza.



How so?

Quick note: Choxorn and reinoe probably not partners.

If both wagons are scum, then the distinctive scenarios are 1 choxorn voter and 1 logic voter, 1 wagon-voter and 1 low-post/off-wagon, or 2 low-post/off-wagon. I'll flesh that out later.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think I need calm down time and then sleepy time before I can do more heavy lifting.

I might still be around because obsessive but don't expect me in real time or interaction and this might be my last post of the night.

[reinoe]

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.
OK COOL. But Chox is likely scum so I'm not worried about it.

[reinoe]

Let the meta knowledge people solve by meta.

I often go to other forums and read people better because I don't have the meta, I have generic meta and I see something is scummy and others can write it off because they always do something similar, and miss the forest for the trees. Similar is not the same. Don't let scummy things happen just because they match a person's meta in a similar sense.

You won't be bogged down by such biases, you should be able to be more objective.

Plus, in spite of some folks pushing you, I feel like I got your alignment right and quickly based on your posts and vote movements, targets, and arguments. I think I let a scum into my town and I don't think it's you, so this is where I'm putting it. Plus Winston is in danger and is a decent alternative doc target tonight imo and they can't cover both.
OK makes sense.

[reinoe]

How so?
Because El Barto went AFK and then pops up two minutes after the lynch. The timing makes it seem like he was around but didn't want his presence to be known.

[Slaan]

Btw in case anyone is still having reservations: pizza is town 100%. Not only due to his read+flip, but his last posts are 100% the post villiager that's hyped that his read panned out :)

[Fredwood]

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

[El Barto]

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

How so?

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.
See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

Wolfy pop-in by El Barto
for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way. :book2:

[Cuthillius]

so we're sheeping pizza right

still think zack's town, still think dp's probably town

[Slaan]

No sheeping. Get reads yourself and follow those... we need everyone to put in work so everyone can be sorted.

[El Barto]

See post #1137
Typo fixed.

[Askthepizzaguy]

That "cfd" attempt onto either Monty or dp101, both of those attempts look godawful.

Think both targets are strongly townie.

I had town leans or strong town leans on both Zack and GH at one point but this is not two townies interacting, as I'm reading this.

I don't seriously think they believed the cfd attempt would work, given the time frame and the fact that we're on the org, and who might have been online at the time. I don't think they thought they could really save Logic, I think more serious attempts at that were made by both over the course of the round, in their own unique styles.

Here, I think they didn't know what to do and both choxorn and logic look like correct lynches, and that they both look like butt for defending Logic, so the play was confusion, stick to their meta of being in favor of cfds so they could at least look like they had no idea a scum was about to flip.

Plus there's always a chance some townie moves off of Logic and choxorn becomes snipe bait. If choxorn is town, this is a good way to destroy all of the positive progress being made on d1, and if he's scum, this at least is some kind of attempt at confusion.

I think both were at a loss for a better move under the circumstances. Just flat out pushing choxorn over Logic even if choxorn is town isn't a great play in the long term because Logic really looked bad by the end of that day and he'd probably have been revisited on choxorn's town flip especially with end of day shenanigans.

I don't think the random cfd attempts were significantly worse, and certainly less straightforward and readable, than simply pushing a more sincere-looking alternative to either, or just plugging away at the hope choxorn dies.

I really don't buy some of their suspects and the reasons why, and their arguments for why Logic was town were scummy. The dp push from both just makes me feel gross when looking at it.

I'll still go back and iso both, try to look at things from a body of work perspective, but I am sensing a lot more interest in chaos and unreadability and trying to make day one worthless than actual solving from both, particularly as the day wound down.

If either or both are townies I have my work cut out for me, and we all do, because it's quite bad on several re-reads.

I also gotta say, both of their posts after the flip felt awkward, like they weren't really sure what the town reaction should be to that. I don't want to read too much into that or give it a lot of weight, but I was all gung ho to give them both a shot at looking townie, and I am seriously wondering how either one has credibility at this point.

It wasn't lolcatting but it sure felt like desperation and trickery rather than sincere towning.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think both have too much experience being scums to collapse in such a way so visibly or dramatically, but I'm having a hard time denying what I'm looking at.

I really had better sleep, and focus on town-building when I wake up. All of this seems too easy but it doesn't feel townie either. Don't know what to make of it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

[Askthepizzaguy]

For starters, off the top of my head:

I've observed Zack being a somewhat relaxed version of his usual self, making me want to keep poking him until the cracks show.

I've observed pizza doing the kind of thing that tends to put him under suspicion on D1 as town, but with a certain knowingness about it that makes me question just how many layers he's working through.

I've observed Dp101 looking like his awkward townie self.

I've observed GH playing it cool, but giving hints of underlying reservation.

Dang.

What level are you on, Winston? I feel like you complete me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am about ready to put dp101 as my fourth non-me lock townie. Not as easy as just reading Logic but the read is just too powerful and it's a body of work style read.

[Slaan]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

[Slaan]

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

Well I'm obv lock town, such are you. Without having reread anything I'd also put Kage high up in my town pile, liked his interactions in general and that he was rather anti-Logic iirc is also good. Winston I don't have much on my mind, would have to reread. Want to add dp as basically lock town, he not only didnt join the CFD that might've saved logic but also argued against it in such a simple (and overall imo wrong) way that I don't ever see ever a wolf doing it.

[Slaan]

I am about ready to put dp101 as my fourth non-me lock townie. Not as easy as just reading Logic but the read is just too powerful and it's a body of work style read.

Oh yea there you go... didnt see that before my post nice.

[Choxorn]

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way. :book2:

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

[Dp101]

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

I'm good with this. Also, thanks for looking back over the CFD attempt for me, I thought it looked pretty bad and I'm thankful that someone else agrees.

[Dp101]

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

[Dp101]

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

I know I'm not him, but I don't necessarily have problems with this right now. Reinoe has had very inconsistent tone between his posts, and there isn't that much clearing him. I'll have to reread EOD first though because I need to confirm whether or not Logic's flip clears you at all.

[Slaan]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

1337 15 743 83773|2 /V|_||\/|83l2 740|_|64

[Csargo]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

[Dp101]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Drifting in an out of this game as other things catch my attention, but.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

I think I can only lock Winston Slaan Kage and dp right now, but I think all of the above three have enough where I could and potentially should find enough to lock them as well.


I don't care about your suss on Logic aside from the fact that you're not pushing him. My issue is you pushing Zack over logic because "Zack" didn't talk to logic. You're saying logic is scum, therefore Zack is scum because he's avoiding logic. Well get logic lynched first then go after Zack.

This was another good bit. I commented on it the first time but it bears repeating on Logic's flip.

This is pretty good. Not enough for a lock but serious consideration given. Will ISO in the morning. It is the morning, so after sleep.


No, I'm not saying logic is scum therefore zack is scum.

1. Logic is scum independently of Zack.

2. Zack has talked to everything that moves except logic. Therefore they're either masons/scum/neighbors. I stated this once already. Either way they're talking to each other OOT and thus have no reason to talk in thread.

3. Zack is scummy independent of Zack.

They are not necessarily scum together but somehow they are talking to each other.

I also want reinoe in the eventual town lineup, need to do the work to prove it first. This observation feels quite townie on Logic's flip. It could be a bridge too far, but I can't discount it. More important to me is if reinoe is scum/faking this post and I don't think so.

Keeping in mind my strong town read on Monty, the next tier is comprised of the following lock town candidates.

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

I have opinions and leans on the rest but nothing below is nearly as solid as the above.

If all 8 of the above are correct, I think I only need one more?

9 lock townies and 7 suspects is a solve, is it not? Or do I have my math wrong. Brain getting fuzzy. I literally just did it on my fingers and somehow I am still not sure I have that right. When the number of townies is two more than the number of lynches and the townies are all correct that's a solve, yes?

remaining:

GH
Csargo
El Barto
Zack
Cuthillius <---town lean
Manasi
Choxorn
Xiahou <--- town lean

And of those I wouldn't push Xiahou or Cuth, but I'd have to do a lot of diligent work on both before crowning them town. I had a good read on Cuth as being townie at one point too, but I feel like the others above are a tier above Cuth.

Ahh passing out by now. Yeah I really gotta stop here.

I think I could find one more townie if I had the time/energy. But because you can't let even one scum into the circle, I really have to put in serious work on fred/reinoe/monty/ ninth candidate.

Bah posting this, not even gonna look over it for mistakes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

Don't think so.

reinoe is maybe a never sell to me and I'm considering him for the next batch of town locks. What do you have on him?

[Montmorency]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.


But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

This is an important setup. The question may hold the key to the game.

If that was scum behavior, then it was either anti-spew or lolcatting supreme like you don't see often outside of when Csargo got outed by Zack in Pokemon. And that was a totally different context with different people, lasting throughout a day rather than a few minutes of EOD.

If that's coordinated scum action, then how many layers of WIFOM are we talking? Assume 2 dead per round, we have 7 more lynches left. How does this help them survive 1 teammate down?

If only one of the two is scum, then trying to divine the rationale may be pointless; better off mechanically flipping or otherwise clearing one of the two through normal game course and process.

Pokemon GH, you could say, proved capable of risky EOD moves for no immediate payoff (he tied two townies IIRC), but that was tying the vote to produce confusion, not CFDing to protect a partner or otherwise. The crucial thing is that, aside from me, DP, and Slaan who were around to see it during EOD, he was only playing in a way that muddies his own image (as was Zack). They had the spotlight, and no one was implicated in anything, so you can't say it sets up scrutiny of a townie or furthers a mislynch down the line.
Askthepizzaguy, I don't think I'm capable of doing analysis of Zack beyond gut reads. Could you look at that set (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762010&viewfull=1#post2053762010) of D1 content from Swords and Sorcery I collated? By the time of my posting that



Pizza's townies:

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

Let's see, there's no point in tinfoiling Pizza right now, Kage was solid on Logic throughout the day (as well as an early advocate of Pizza's case), and DP was 2nd or 3rd to join that wagon. If we had m/m wagons, these two even going only off timing are acceptable locks. Winston is kind of playing at high-level independently, and without checking also early on Logic (2nd?). Not sure if that's the case for Slaan, but off the top of my head my impression of Slaan is as insightful, helpful, and challenging in a consistent way, but there aren't notable single instances that ping me heavily towards one alignment or another. I was struck that smiley post reaching out to Choxorn earlier on, but purely by content it's NAI.

So I wouldn't lock Slaan, and having no "candidate locks" would place him in a 50%+ town (i.e. 75%+) category alongside Fred. Reinoe, may be turning out inconsistent like Viper in Pokemon, so as of now only a light town read.

Pizza's the-rest: Individuals need substantive treatment, but I don't have any new opinions on Manasi and Barto beyond null, and Xiahou hasn't had more than a couple posts. As for Csargo, I don't agree on how you're treating him for early D1, that even as he's doing just fine past the beginning of the game you pre-emptively rule out any opportunity for him to post himself into Town. Choxorn since EOD is unremarkable, sussing Reinoe so if that's where he's pushing the two less likely a team.

I still need to see how the EOD wagons can be anaylzed wrt this group.


There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

[No Montmorency post quoted]

(;¬_¬)

[reinoe]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?
So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

[Csargo]

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

My best guess is they got bored and were never really convinced Logic was scum, so they went in search of someone else. Awful idea in hindsight, but everything is an awful idea in hindsight. There's little chance they'd both do that as scum I don't think.

[Csargo]

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

So to answer the first question, yeah I'd say it's probably more of a townie action than a scum action, however misguided it may have been.

[reinoe]

Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

[reinoe]

Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

[Montmorency]

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play/page23&p=2053761740#post2053761740), so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play/page7&p=2053761123#post2053761123)) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761157&highlight=vote%3Alogic#post2053761157) - Reinoe (switched onto Zack (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761197&viewfull=1#post2053761197) soon after, had some other votes (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/search.php?searchid=2584003) as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761370&highlight=vote%3Alogic#post2053761370) - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761531&highlight=vote#post2053761531), then back to Logic #796 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761962&viewfull=1#post2053761962))
#511 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761529&viewfull=1#post2053761529) - Winston (Changes to Barto #521 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761554&viewfull=1#post2053761554), changes back to Logic #539 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761573&viewfull=1#post2053761573) after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761628&viewfull=1#post2053761628) - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play/page23&p=2053761740#post2053761740) - Slaan
#777 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761857&viewfull=1#post2053761857) - Choxorn

#919 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762122&viewfull=1#post2053762122) - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762322&viewfull=1#post2053762322) - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it

[reinoe]

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.
Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

[Kagemusha]

Vote: Choxorn

Vote with one of my top suspects on the counter-wagon to my #1 suspect?

:yes:


Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

[Choxorn]

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

I actually forgot about that, to be honest, and that's a good point.

I still think some of your posts are a little questionable, but on re-read you overall look pretty good, and I don't really see you being scummates with Zack right now.

So, Zack/GH/? then.

[Winston Hughes]

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

Make hay while the sun shines.

I was possibly even more confident than pizza about Logic being scum (because I knew I was on the level both in my support and in the independence of my reasons, whereas pizza couldn't be sure he wasn't just being sheeped), and almost certain he was getting lynched (if it had come into serious doubt, then I would put my thumb on the scale much more heavily).

Everything I did between stepping off the Logic wagon and stepping back on again was content generation, trying to leverage my confidence about the gamestate into more readable info for post-flip analysis.

[Winston Hughes]

None of which is to say that my suspicion of chox wasn't genuine, btw.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Askthepizzaguy (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=23872)

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

I don't know. At this point I don't trust a certain group of people, but I feel like I can more reliably find my townies.

Gonna do that. I could harp on and on endlessly about how scummy x y and z are, but I have too many so some of it is wrong.

I get the feeling if I go based on what looks scummy to me I could swing-and-a-miss on the next guess, and then we can get off track.

What do we know? Well some people look townie and they got there in a way that was well earned, and I feel like going through those one by one is my better bet. Make the town circle.

Because if Xiahou is scum, I'm not finding that in his posts so far. I might not before I die. If Manasi is scum, that might be based off of a post or two that felt wrong to me, but I don't have a strong case. If it's GH or Zack I can't tell which one right now, if it's both I don't know if I convince this crowd, see Csargo's argument for why.

I don't know if I can get what scum remain outside my town into a nice, tight lynching knot that's exactly right.

What I do think is that I can find 8 townies by midnight tonight, especially since I've got half of them and what I feel are good leads on 3 additional ones.

If I find that 8th townie, and if all are right, and I convince you guys not to eat each other when I die, shit like being unable to read Xiahou or Manasi or Zack or GH or Csargo or choxorn town when they are won't begin to matter.

It won't matter, it's still a win. Maybe a sloppy win, but when all the scums have left to do is count down to the day when their POE number comes up, that's gonna be extremely demoralizing. Like repeated punches to the stomach that knock all the wind out of 'em.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I need to start from square zero as not everyone is even gonna agree on the folks I think are the most obvious.

Let's walk you through it. Starting with the easiest town read, Winston. Which is not something you're oft to hear from my lips.

This will be for the people who don't think it's at all obvious, for them to look at and say why this isn't conclusive. Otherwise I'm just gonna state it like it's the alibi that proves he dinna do it and move on without too much elaboration and fanfare.

[Fredwood]

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

Lol not really, I'm having a hard enough time self-arguing WiFoM why scum GH makes that play there let alone with Zack Xposting with GH. Couple that with the the xpost on the push on me, if they are teammates, they have shit timing.

[Fredwood]

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.

[Fredwood]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow


Eh it's possible I guess. I just think if he's scum he knows bussing Logic there buys him no equity so better to take the contrarian stance to fuel WiFoM.

I don't see the CFD as an attempt to save Chox though, I mean it's only put Chox further in the towns crosshairs if anything, personally I was 100 percent null on Chox before reading EoD.

It might be possible that Chox and GH aren't aligned. (IE Bad GH tries to make the VillaChox lynch more likely to save his actual partner who could also be on the chopping block). However I'm already WIFOMing the hell out that. Anybody know if GH is Sicilian?

[Kagemusha]

I have still akin to 500 kilometers to drive home, but once there i am going to start showing my lines drawn to the air based on first day, in case i happen to perish n7ght one. My current conclusion is that GH should be default lynch for day two, unless something changes drastically.

[reinoe]

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.
1. Logic had 5 votes at that time so hammer was not likely.

2.I don't remember seeing that you weren't scumreading me and it's ultimately irrelevant. The vote on me is not the primary point. That has little to do with what I'm saying and I don't know why you keep trying to deflect to it. I'm pointing out that there is a complete disconnect between what you want and what you did. You wanted to vote logic or El barto (or apparently GH) but did none of it, despite having multiple chances to do so. It looks like you were completely indifferent to what was going on during the day.

3.
So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.
What "thing" with GH are you talking about? This was the last post you made (re-inforcing your support for a logic lynch who had only 5 votes at the time). If you're trying to say your "tis strange" comment is you scumreading him then that's weaksauce.

it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.
No, it's not clear.

Tangent. But there's been some recent soft-defense of Zack from you without actually talking about Zack directly.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes, the tl;dr version.

Page 1: NAI

Page 2: 152 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761082&viewfull=1#post2053761082) feels significantly townie enough to mention it to you. I even think he might have rustled Zack with his joke suspicion, but I'm hunting townies so let's stick to that. I feel like his joke leans list (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761077&viewfull=1#post2053761077) with Monty as third party gave away the joke. Otherwise it's Zack/GH/Pizza all being found as suspicious before we got rolling, which is less obviously the joke but more like the punchline. Humor is a good thing to consider, and Winston's humor is good here, even if he might have been accidentally right on someone. Nothing locking here yet.

Page 3: NAI

Page 4: no posts

Page 5: no posts

Page 6: Seems like his joke suspicion on Zack has begun to take a mild turn (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761397&viewfull=1#post2053761397) for the worse. Just noting it. Here (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761406&viewfull=1#post2053761406) he seems to be voicing real suspicion on GH and Zack, or at least a desire to put pressure on those slots. 437 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761421&viewfull=1#post2053761421) seems to indicate real suspicion there. But here we go, 439 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761424&viewfull=1#post2053761424). I'll quote the relevant posts below. Then Logic in 457 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761449&viewfull=1#post2053761449). See bottom analysis for more. This is quite telling.

Page 7: 508 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761524&viewfull=1#post2053761524) demonstrates a dichotomy between him and Zack. Don't see them being w/w. Again, someone is shading Winston outright and he's almost oblivious to it, just taking Zack on the level and responding to him on the level, despite his mild suspicions on Zack. If this were distancing, this is deliciously subtle acting that you never see. By 509 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761527&viewfull=1#post2053761527) he seems to let go of the early Zack suspicion. Then in 511 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761529&viewfull=1#post2053761529) bam! The Logic vote coupled with this is real suspicion is a good indicator. After a quick hop onto El Barto, when Barto votes him back, he's back (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761573&viewfull=1#post2053761573) on Logic. 553 hates the fact that his vote on Logic looks like a sheep of me. Page 6 and 7 are great quick peeks for those of you at 80 posts per page like me, to get a feel for WH in context.

Page 8: NAI

Page 9: no posts

Page 10: Post 792 mindmeld about choxorn. Whether that's right or not, I don't know, but Winston is constantly thinking of the same things I am, slightly before, or slightly after I do. This is not coincidence. If it was all after, it'd be less convincing, and it would be WH blatantly sheeping me as either alignment and I don't think he'd decide to be that submissive. Since he's taking the lead on things I am concluding at roughly the same time, just after he posted it, I think it's completely real that he's solving the game similarly to me. 797 rings true. 799 is a very townie process.

Page 11: 810 is good. Winston's language here expresses knowledge and confidence where scums tend to express less confidence unless it serves a specific purpose. 812 and for much of the page, Winston questions Zack for solving purposes and asks Monty to flesh out his reasons why he has issue with Zack more. This plus the earlier bits, and then a frustrated decision that Zack must be town, but the niggling doubts still creeping in thereafter indicate someone whose agenda is to find townies while still being honest about what suspicions he does find. He wants Zack to be a townie but something is off in his estimation, and couldn't pinpoint it. By 826 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762001&viewfull=1#post2053762001) he says this. All of this looks very good no matter what Zack's alignment is. But 835 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762017&viewfull=1#post2053762017) is the major tell. I absolutely believe that Winston Hughes is hunting and finding Logic from a clean notebook using his own detective's reasoning, and it has absolutely nothing to do with sheeping me. He's got his own reasons and views on why Logic is scum. This is an independent get and it doesn't matter the chronology. If I weren't in this game, Winston still would have caught Logic today. He deserves full credit, this is the same level of a bus as if I were the one doing it, and I think Winston also knows how effin' bad that is. He can bus but there's a time and a place and it wasn't early d1 before the poor guy could even establish himself. I think I got him at a time when he couldn't even post that much in his own defense, before the mid-point of d1. That's NOT a time to bus and Winston was attacking him that early. I absolutely believe 839 is a real tinfoil. 840 is really good snap reasoning. 845 is Winston giving credence to a Zack tinfoil that he doesn't even think he should be able to be having, because it would indicate Zack's scum game is enormously improved from previous heights, which WH respected already. This is a thought and a revelation that townies have, and scums don't really. Especially not acted this well. Whatever Zack's alignment, Winston's looks good just from interacting with Zack and sussing him. He struggles hard with Zack's alignment this game but is trying to solve him town based on townie-looking behavior. He's not trying to mislynch Zack, that motive isn't there. 877 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762066&viewfull=1#post2053762066) Snap read of Fredwood town crossposting with Zack calling Fredwood scum looks like a real crosspost and further adds to the Winston/Zack dichotomy. They're not aligned together unless both are town, and WH looks very town. Also just that bit, I feel like it demonstrates that Winston is looking to build a town, as opposed to tearing one down.

Page 12: NAI

Page 13: No posts





.....




For starters, off the top of my head:
I've observed Zack being a somewhat relaxed version of his usual self, making me want to keep poking him until the cracks show.
I've observed pizza doing the kind of thing that tends to put him under suspicion on D1 as town, but with a certain knowingness about it that makes me question just how many layers he's working through.
I've observed Dp101 looking like his awkward townie self.
I've observed GH playing it cool, but giving hints of underlying reservation.
This feels like real solving and vigilance.

I'm wary of being affected by pizza's mystical bit, but reading Logic's ISO suggests an underlying sense of control that wasn't there in previous games.
This is significant because it is assisting with the suspicion on Logic, but from Winston's own work page. He didn't just copy what little I said and go yeah, he seems off. Instead he volunteers new reasoning and basis for the suspicion from his own detective work, which makes me believe he's actually independently solving the game.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.
I don't think Logic ever posts this to a partner. Also notable in this post is the top line is a response to Kagemusha questioning how he got Slaan town-read so early, which also makes Kagemusha townie in retrospect as I already mentioned. The underlined bit, ironically, demonstrates Logic's perfect information as he's accusing Winston of having perfect information. How often that's gonna be a scum/scum interaction I leave to the imagination of the reader, but in my book, there's bad and there's not bad, and this ain't bad for the Winstonian.

Just experience talking. As much as I want to keep pizza under pressure, I'm leery of actually lynching him because, historically, it's been a very bad move.
The follow up a couple posts later does not read like Winston is mutually distancing from Logic. In fact, it just reads like Winston is taking what he's saying at face value even though Logic is smearing him. I don't think it sinks in until later, which indicates that it's not acting when it does.

Vote: Logic

Reviewing my reactions, he seems the closest thing to an actual scumread.
Like his repeated return to Zack as a mild suspicion, he repeats his claim that Logic is actually suspect and repeats votes on him as well.

Never change.

Vote: Logic
As has been demonstrated.

choxy so conservative.

Where's the juice, choxy?
Before I switcheroo on choxorn, Winston says what was nagging me during one of my catch-ups. I had chox as town, then posts in between changed my mind, and Winston saw it first.

Three scenarios, ordered most-to-least likely by my estimation:

1) pizza is town and correct about Logic

2) pizza is town and wrong about Logic

3) pizza is scum

Above questions re. pizza are due diligence, in recognition that pizza is better at getting townread as scum than as town (esp. on D1).
looks good.

unvote

Don't want Logic hammered tonight.
Logic actually getting enough momentum to be near hammer danger at this point, and that discussion time is vital for town especially with people who have yet to really post much. Even a strong scum candidate is not worth hammering day one early, that's anti-town. So while this should be NAI, I fully fully back this decision.

My level of confidence in pizza's towniness and his read of Logic is a new sensation.

I want to prod at it before it's either confirmed or questioned by the flip.
This rings true. I don't look so townie so early so well and I don't think I make a super solid case on d1 very well either. But I also don't think WH is just saying this to hide in my town. That's basically what it has to be if he's scum, and the rest of his ISO doesn't match that theory. I think we are simply mindmelding. Scums have an agenda, and that agenda is rarely as simple as "say what pizza is thinking before he knows he's thinking it, and sheep him relentlessly". That's not ever really a playbook they choose or could stick to if they tried. They have to be able to move around, not tie their own hands.

@Montmorency (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=74339)

Would you really lynch Zack today?
I believe if I'm correct, this is Winston's mild discomfort with Zack re-appearing. At this point, and in the posts just after, he asks Monty to develop the Zack read more and flesh out his reasons, and he begins to question Zack in a solving Zack's alignment sense.

I feel you.

But I came to a Logic scumread for my own reason: control.

What I've seen of townie Logic, he exercises little conscious control and just posts what he thinks.

This Logic feels like he's thinking about it.
This is WH's independent get for Logic. The chronology doesn't matter, Winston nabbed Logic legitimately.

GH's big post looks townie in itself, but it feels a little scummy to me that he'd make that his main engagement with the thread at this stage.
Where's the chat, GH?
Complex thoughts and good vigilance. Looks townie but feels scummy is a real and complex thought that scums don't often use as a line of attack.

If Zack isn't town, he's nailed the impression.

I'm sold.
Still struggling with the apparent contradiction of having scummy vibes about Zack, while Zack's actual acting is amazing. Even this wording indicates that he's giving Zack his earned acting award, but is having trouble in his gut with fully believing in it. This is more like a decision to stick with the odds and being impressed by Zack than a wholehearted town read. This is the theme of his day one feelings toward Zack. Man it looks townie but I'm having trouble keeping Zack in my town, kind of thoughts. Keeps giving bad feelings but still looks amaze. Those are complex thoughts and shows Winston's struggle.

Zack is a bad vote.

Join me on GH.
Does not feel correct to try to talk Xiahou out of voting for Zack if the goal is to cause mislynches and Zack is town, especially after he would have been putting a lot of acting investment into struggling with Zack's alignment this round. This post demonstrates Winston's motive clearly: He was looking for townies and struggling to put Zack into his town despite the fact that it looks like he belongs there on some levels. But here he is, defending his hard-fought town lean on Zack, because he's trying to build a town, not destroy one.

Vote: Logic
That's about all that needs to be said.

That's a ton of work to establish him as town and he's obvious town and everyone has him town, so don't take him out of your town even if he messes up later. But the diligence has been done. His iso is clean, no scums lurking inside of it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes, the short version.

457 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761449&viewfull=1#post2053761449)
511 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761529&viewfull=1#post2053761529)
835 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762017&viewfull=1#post2053762017)


I'm wary of being affected by pizza's mystical bit, but reading Logic's ISO suggests an underlying sense of control that wasn't there in previous games.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.

Vote: Logic

Reviewing my reactions, he seems the closest thing to an actual scumread.

Never change.

Vote: Logic

unvote

Don't want Logic hammered tonight.

I feel you.

But I came to a Logic scumread for my own reason: control.

What I've seen of townie Logic, he exercises little conscious control and just posts what he thinks.

This Logic feels like he's thinking about it.

Vote: Logic

Logic spewed him town, he spewed himself town by going after Logic, he spewed himself town by having his own reasons in spite of my case that some folks couldn't grok or didn't agree with. I think he lynches Logic today even if I weren't around, or at least highly suspects him and votes him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes needs to be universally lock town. Moving on to next lock townie.

[Askthepizzaguy]

While looking at Kage, I'm ignore mode-ing a lot of people to make this easier. Logic I'm leaving off of ignore for the duration because spew, but I saw this and I need to make a comment while it's on my mind:



also

logic i think i've always assumed you've played chess because y'knowI haven't played chess since about the time that avatar was made. So, a decade or so? I've never considered myself very good. I'm capable of beating my parents and


i did think dp's been a bit weird and the reaction test was really... stiff and ???
Hmm. Why do you get a feeling that no one else seems to?

Logic's 10-minute take:
DP is town. DP is not teamed with Pizza, or Zack.

Csargo and Pizza are not teamed. One could be a wolf, but I don't think both.

Pizza feels really weird from normal. I can usually understand him a little, but here, he feels like he is playing 9 moves ahead to my 4. Not sure if he's on my team or not. I stand by my "seat of the pants" statement from earlier.

Cuth jumps in with some slight shade at DP. Is he suspicious of DP?

Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.

Reinoe is the current target of DP's ire, and he is voting for me, (full disclosure, that that vote isn't being counted because it isn't bolded)

His vote on me looks like it stems only from Pizza's accusation. Not sure if sheeping, or he has other reasons for voting for me.

Vote: Kagemusha

Aside from the looks-good mentions of reinoe and the obvious looks-good vote against Kagemusha and the scummy reasons behind it, look at the bolded orange bits about Cuth.

This is more of the Just Asking Questions passive aggression slime that he put on both Kage and Winston this game.

I would not at all be shocked if this is also spewing Cuthillius townie. That plus what little bit of research I already did on Cuth makes Cuthillius a likely candidate to enter my town when I do the full work on him.

Wanted to put this out here for everyone's attention though before I forget it. Cuth's wayyyy down my list so, I might not get to him before I ded.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Kagemusha, the tl;dr version.

Page 1: No posts
Page 2: No posts
Page 3: No posts
Page 4: No posts
Page 5: Opens with joke vote on Slaan. Later, does a roleplay post of an arrogant and crazy person, likely Bobby Fischer. The beard reference is likely due to Bobby not having a beard while active, and then having one much later. Logic's 397 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761365&viewfull=1#post2053761365) indicates well for Kage.
Page 6: Kage responds to Logic's vote with an OMGUS. 415 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761389&viewfull=1#post2053761389) even more strongly indicates town-Kage. That process is a legitimate way to get the ball rolling and one I believe Kage will default to often enough. 424 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761401&viewfull=1#post2053761401) Logic spew is sharply good for Kage. Kage's own 425 snap back 3 minutes later is extremely good for Kage. After that, Logic doesn't have a good answer for a good long time. Over 2 hours later he comes back with this weaksauce.



(pizza snip)
Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.
(pizza snip)
Vote: Kagemusha[b/]
Click for context, most of that post is irrelevant for Kage, but this is the important bits.

Another one who cant understand what true strategy is.Truly illogical! [B]Unvote and Vote: Logic . Though i will get you for your slander Slaan, sooner rather then later!
Snap.

At least it got you to talk and Logic to vote. Is there something else we can do at the moment? Get people to talk and start drawing lines into thin air in order to find associations later? In the past Ive tried to play old style as town only observing at the start and got myself mis lynched enough times for lurking. So her i am talking. Lets talk.:yes:
A mish-mash of old school Kagemusha and modern Kagemusha, still out of date in the current meta but the old warhorse has valid methods that he believes in, he uses, this is his real process as mentioned before.

I only know the style of few people playing. This morning when i went to through the thread, mostly it is just nonsense. Csargo seems like Csargo. So does GH. Pizza seems to be claiming some sort of ultimate knowledge which is completely normal for him. Choxorn drops by and does the minimum and you and Manasi seem to have some sort of sweet talking going on, which i think i recall also from earlier games. DP seems like he is on the verge of meltdown when it comes to mafia, which i can relate to quite well. I could not get any reaction from Slaan with my vote, which is too early for me to analyze. Logic seemed to be eager to react to my sudden activity, but thats about it. What have you observed so far? It would be lot easier to read it through one post then from myriad of posts.
This is a lot of depth in Kage terms. All offered freely. For some other people I'd consider this thin, but for Kage this early, it's got depth and reveals bits of his process as well, see the bits on Slaan. I should call this NAI but it gives me good feels.

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.
The bolded makes Kage sharply townie. The phrasing is all wrong for Logic if Kage is a partner. It just looks like Logic randomly white knighting Slaan when he had no business doing so, so he could attack Kagemusha.

And where does the thought of Slaan not being a wolf stems from? Do you know him from other games/forums or what are you basing on that assumption?
Obliteration. Kage destroys Logic independently of me or Winston with one punch. This one question is the damning one.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.
The first bolded is why he had Slaan as town apparently, after Kage snapped back at him about where in the heck he could think he's town. This is not indicative of a real process as I said at the time, and now we know is true, and the second bolded is him trying to deflect. Looking at the chronology, Logic's mistakes largely take place because Kage prompted them, after he voted for Kage. That sequence of events is never Logic voted a partner, partner fired back with an instantly crippling question, followed by other huge mistakes from Logic that I was able to see and what ultimately got him lynched because several folks saw them as mistakes. This sequence happens when Kage is town only.

Gonna stop here, Kage is never dying this game except by murder. This is all you need, this is sufficient.

Universal town read on Kage from everyone, even if he makes mistakes from here on out, please. This is a read that should not fade with time or based on Kage pushing a townie. It's a perma read.

[Askthepizzaguy]

NETA, confusing unfinished thought because of missing link:

"Over 2 hours later he comes back with this (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761449&viewfull=1#post2053761449) weaksauce."

Should have included a link to the bottom quote in the above post. That was the finishing blow to Kage ever being scum here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Still 9 hours left on the clock. Got a very early dinner and I'm fueled up to continue.

Let's take a look at why Slaan is a townie now. That's the part a couple were taking issue with, so it's important I flesh it out right.

See if you agree or tell me why you disagree.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan

Page 1: Many posts NAI because it's all fluffy. And to be expected in the first 80 posts.
Page 2: Still nothing happening here except a GH welcome vote.
Page 3: No posts
Page 4: No posts
Page 5: Kage joke votes Slaan, putting him at 2. Again we have to look at 397 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761365&viewfull=1#post2053761365), where Logic leaps to Slaan's 'defense', more of an attack on Kage though. That's all that happens this page. See bottom quotes.
Page 6: 424 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761401&viewfull=1#post2053761401) looks good for Slaan. 450 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761441&viewfull=1#post2053761441) is a good process post by Slaan. Quoted below. 465 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761460&viewfull=1#post2053761460) is true. 473 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761480&viewfull=1#post2053761480) leans list is not very impressive, but I look at this is more of a struggle to read people townie on a new forum, and him naturally being a little stingy giving out town leans. And even in his smallish leans list summary at the bottom, I think his top 2 townies are townies and think he's got a couple scumbags in his bottom 5.
Page 7: NAI
Page 8: NAI
Page 9: Post 685 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761740&viewfull=1#post2053761740) is making Logic into a super serious candidate for the lynch. Might not have been able to do it without this vote. Is it a bus? Don't think so.
Page 10: 784 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761925&viewfull=1#post2053761925) snap read was a mindmeld with me.
Page 11: 867 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762055&viewfull=1#post2053762055) is important to reading Slaan. I think it indicates very well here.
Page 12: 891 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762083&viewfull=1#post2053762083) response to Fred "feeling sorry for" Logic and reading him town for it also indicates that he's building a town. I agree with the read, and he and Winston both thinking Fredwood is town for this as opposed to people attacking Fredwood for it, seems to mesh with a town mindset. It matches my views, so this is another mindmeld read. 940 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762186&viewfull=1#post2053762186) is really sharp and non-consensus, and it's looking more plausible at this point. 951 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762213&viewfull=1#post2053762213) is a sharp and relevant question no one else was asking.
Page 13: 983 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762274&viewfull=1#post2053762274) looks good. 1025 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762338&viewfull=1#post2053762338) on the other hand seems to indicate that his philosophy would be to bus Logic here for being a weak partner, because there's no cops, forgetting how never getting murdered becomes an issue by late game. So, I'm keeping in mind that by Slaan's own admission, he'd probably bus Logic hard. Is that proof of scum or even scummy? I don't think so presently. I look to the rest of his game, and it looks pretty good to me.




....



Selected quotes and why they lean town to me:


Logic's 10-minute take:
DP is town. DP is not teamed with Pizza, or Zack.

Csargo and Pizza are not teamed. One could be a wolf, but I don't think both.

Pizza feels really weird from normal. I can usually understand him a little, but here, he feels like he is playing 9 moves ahead to my 4. Not sure if he's on my team or not. I stand by my "seat of the pants" statement from earlier.

Cuth jumps in with some slight shade at DP. Is he suspicious of DP?

Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.

Reinoe is the current target of DP's ire, and he is voting for me, (full disclosure, that that vote isn't being counted because it isn't bolded)

His vote on me looks like it stems only from Pizza's accusation. Not sure if sheeping, or he has other reasons for voting for me.

Vote: Kagemusha[b/]
So if he's white knighting, if you think Slaan is scum you think Logic is defending teammate Slaan. I don't know, defense is not really Logic's bag as any alignment. He's mostly offense-minded. I think the premise behind this move is to get votes on Kage, not to specifically defend Slaan. If anything, hoping he can get Slaan to also vote for Kage could be a motive. I don't see Logic protecting Slaan as a motive since Slaan wasn't under any serious pressure. The key to this whole thought process is that he likely has one motive, and that motive is to lynch a townie. It's not playing defense. Slaan's just being used as a cudgel to beat Kage, the motive isn't really to get suspicion/joke votes off of Slaan. I did look at this but it's almost never this.

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. [B]Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.
Again the analysis here is if Slaan is being defended. I don't see that, especially after Kage's vote was in character roleplaying and obviously not that serious, just a poke. Logic is just trying to create drama out of nothing. When pressed on why Slaan is a townie, he doesn't have a well thought out answer. If it were my partner, I'd have a totally defensible reason why they're townie ready to go when asked. Defending a partner has to be convincing and look good. If it's not convincing, doesn't look good, and the reasons are beyond generic, then Logic was simply white knighting some townie he wasn't thinking about in any depth, to attack Kage. Did not have a good plan of action to respond to questions about his process on Slaan. Feels like that strongly indicates Slaan is town, but I admit it's just theory. Let's keep looking.

I'm currently at this part and I think both are town. Dp101 just seems overall towny in tone and reaction and is trying to figure things out (I really liked post #310 of his) and reinoe seems unreasonable aggressive and obstinate which I hardly see from scum that mostly just want to blend in.
Specifics (post 310 referred to) and the process on reinoe is very townie; usually a person who is undiplomatic is someone wolves turn their backs on, even if they don't accuse. They like it when someone who is town is isolated from other townies, and they get sympathy points just for agreeing that being obstinate is "bad for town". The more they can discredit and divide, the better. This post shows me that Slaan is looking for townie alignment, wherever he can find it and explain it.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.
Generic, as I said at the time. I also didn't see how anyone could read alignment based off of this reasoning, whereas I feel like if Slaan were a wolf, Logic would have found some better basis to call him town. Level 1 is to not even call your partner town, and you're afraid to do that, and after that, you look for justifications because it's still scary to call your partner town. I feel like Logic is going to find stronger reasons why Slaan is town than this to defend him if Slaan is his buddy. It's also just not his thing in general, which is why it came off so awkward. This just isn't in his playbook, and when you run the wildcat and you never run the wildcat, someone drops the football.


So I ISO'd Logic once more to reconsider my case on him... I noticed how pizza basically immediatly went after him and tunneled him ever since, starting Post 169 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761099&viewfull=1#post2053761099) where he calls his opener sloppy althought he just posted about games during rvs which I don't think is AI since we the topic when he came into the thread were video games.

But then there is his townread on me which is just weird as fuck... I mean I was just shitposting around and I can do that regardless of alignment (check the Orchestrated Chaos game where I also just randomly posted at SoD1)... I mean who can't just post small talk as either alignment. He then gives the reason that he thought I just tipped my foot in the water of new peeps here but how is that ever AI from anyone? There went 0 thought into his townread on me and there is no reason for a towny to do so.

So yea, I'm fine with a Logic lynch today.. in fact let me help

Vote: Logic

Also I'm gonna put Monty back in my null pile after his last couple of posts, they seemed pretty good
Could this be a bus? I doubt it.

Is it the entire game? Isnt it rather just one very loud voice that 2 others (Kage + dp) sheeped and now more recently I added myself to that list... am I missing someone? I don't see this being unlikely tbh
Zack complaining that the entire game (3 people) wants Logic dead, Slaan responds with this. Pretty good imo.

Well RIP me, this game has devolved (or from your standpoints maybe evolved :D) into meta read fun where I can hardly contribute... I mean I could read up on past games here but ngl my WIM isnt that large...

In the end I'd be down for those lynches today:
- Logic: Don't even care much for pizza's tirade against him (he just made me look at Logic again)... I find his townread towards me and subsequent defending scummy. He townread me after the shitposting early D1 without me having contributed anything... and after being questioned about it doubled down on it because I seemed like a new guy trying to fit in a new group... which is an ok read but why is this AI in the slightest from me? Seems to me like he just put together a quick readlist without having a solving mindset.
- Barto: From everything I've read it's not a slot I'd miss and I doubt I'd ever get a read on it and just sheeping the meta reads of you guys doesnt sound like fun.
- Manasi: Feels way different from the mashes we've played, less chatty and less active and overall just weird for the little bit of Manasi I know
- Choxorn: Few rather isolated pop ins with a rather scummy post townreading pizza
- Xiahou: Didnt do anything so far really, 1 post iirc

Preferred is still the Logic lynch though, in addition to imo >rand flipping scum there has been alot said about him that can help us going forward. And of those 5 I'd lynch Xiahou last obv, hope s/he can find into the game and post more :).
The bolded parts are really important because they reveal process. Slaan has his own kinda unique reasons why Logic is scum, which is important, even brings up the readlist without it being a major focus of anyone else's case. He doesn't have the confidence level of me, Winston, and Kage (wrt Logic flipping scum) which is fine. Why would he? He really only sees the one or two things as kinda scummy, doesn't have the same perspective.

I think thats towny from Fred. Same thing happened in the wild west game that he started to feel sorry for the guy under immense pressure and fred was town there. Not that its not fakeable etc etc but it's in line with his prev town play so thats :top:
Mindmeld.

If Logic flips wolf I'm going to start looking realy hard at GH btw... in the wild west game he also tried to save a mafia buddy by going after Fredwood.

That being said I don't mind his attitude rn, doesnt hurt to look further than the 'easy' lynches so that's fine
This is sharp and might even be correct.

That's a long post about why you'd never be scum in this situation... I didnt even bother to read all of it because self-meta analysis is often bad to begin with ;).

I'd agree that you and Logic are never w/w. Imo such a play would require you two to have agreed to in in wolfchat and then I'd expect Logic to still be around... only exception here would be that Logic knows he won't have time to play this game after all and says 'bus me hard' or smth... duno, ppl that know Logic (outside of pizza obviously) would that be a possibility? That's high level tinfoil territory though so maybe only something to consider going into lylo or w/e, just figured I'd share on this front.

You being w and Logic town? Sure why not, 'as wolf I'd never push a mislynch so hard' is not an unheard of defence... even townies often come to that conclusion - it's a valid strategy.

Doesnt mean that I think you are scum, just that I'm not one to buy such defences :)
This process all looks valid.

Hm, I'm torn tbh. Logic could've had real rl issues and if he can start being more active starting next day that would be good... Chox on the other hand seems to have displayed his commitment to this game and it doesnt look like it'll get better.... Then again my read on Logic is a bit stronger and his lynch would give us max infos after he was talked about so much so I'll stay on Logic me thinks
Slaan seriously hard bussing Logic if he's scum with him. He has every opportunity to make a difference and begin to move off the wagon for legitimate looking reasons and he does not. If Slaan is alive in final three it's a problem, but until then I don't think so.

So this is the bottom line on Slaan- it's a lot of individual things that look good, and the dead wolf spew looks good. A few mindmelds and so forth.

Maybe he's not lock, but his ELO rating would be pretty high if all of this is fake. The process is good, the vote is good, I particularly like the process on Fredwood and reinoe in particular, it shows town-building instead of town destroying as his main motivation. I like his independent and different reasons why Logic is scummy as opposed to just "looks good Pizza I'll help". It looks more like he's arriving at the conclusion from his own blank detective's notebook and with a different degree of confidence, and is less swayed by the opinions of the moment, he's just following what is scummy.

There are some strong style differences that make me a little uneasy. But I think Slaan isn't going to be a problem unless he's still hanging around 4 days from now. But I'm adding up the process looks good, the reads are sharp, the observations are very mindmeld-y, and he's one of the people who are most responsible for a day 1 scummo death. Is he lock clear forever? No, but I think he's going to be. That's my prediction.

If he's scum what are you seeing that gets you to conclude that? Show me.

If you won't lock him town forever then I still think he gets a few days pass. I think that's quite fair and deserved, and in that time maybe he can get a perma lock, or die due to mafia.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Slaan is scum, this is his whole strategy: Being supertownie.

Killing the weakest scums, defending townies, and hoping to be the deep wolf at endgame.

I'm only recognizing this is possible. I am not saying it's plausible. It is the only way he's scum here, and I put low odds on it. So legit just keep this in mind if he's hanging around at LYLO. Consider him carefully but votes don't go here for a long while.

[Slaan]

I love being read :)

I'm not sure though if I can ever get a secure town lock if me being 'Supertownie' already isnt enough ^^. But overall it's a correct read, playing as townie as possible is my overall mafia strategy including bussing when it makes sense... in the Orchestrated Chaos Game I even put all 3 of my partners in my scumpile at the start of D4 ready to kill them all so I could solo the game... funny enough the last thing jp (one of the F3 that voted SmartBomb over scum!me) said to me after the game was over was 'I just thought you were super town, oh well............' so the supertownie reference is definetly on point :p

That being said I'm not mafia this game (and probably wouldnt share this if I was... or maybe I would? https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/brauen.gif)... lynch me lylo if you want because currently I feel like we would have majorly screwed up somewhere if we even let it get that far.

Don't have much time to do much reading/solving myself today but we have a 72h day coming up so w/e :)

[Askthepizzaguy]

Dp101 the lickity lock townie.

Page 1: No posts
Page 2: NAI
Page 3: I really like 206 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761136&viewfull=1#post2053761136). It reads like dp101 doesn't have an agenda and is just normally struggling to get what I'm saying, as it was layered in Finegold-isms and roleplaying, and not a lot of direct explanation that is easy to understand. I didn't like other folks' reactions to me, dp's was good.
Page 4: I think dp would be impressed by that (241 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761177&viewfull=1#post2053761177)). I like his process in 271 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761201&viewfull=1#post2053761201). He's been asking people "quick" questions for a while, hoping to trip someone up. 304 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761235&viewfull=1#post2053761235) dp and I start to have consistently backwards appraisals of people's alignment. Call it a reverse mindmeld. Expected even, from dp. 310 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761241&viewfull=1#post2053761241) he follows up well. This just looks like dp thoughts. Maybe he's correct and I'm wrong here, who knows. 317 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761248&viewfull=1#post2053761248) and 318 all look great for dp being himself. Basically his entire interaction with me, from start of game until now, has been amazing from my perspective.
Page 5: 338 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761269&viewfull=1#post2053761269) and 339, nuff said. 341 has got just a little bit of annoyed / dissatisfied sass from dp101, because Csargo is coasting a bit, and this reaction to his fireworks post also feels like the exact right thing to say there. 343 continues with reinoe. 354 comes to different conclusions about me than Csargo when he could easily push me.
Page 6: I like 405 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761376&viewfull=1#post2053761376), dp being sassy. 434 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761418&viewfull=1#post2053761418) a very dp101 process on Winston. I agree with the read so I'm not complaining. I can follow him.
Page 7: NAI
Page 8: 573 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761615&viewfull=1#post2053761615) and 585 are very solid for dp's town alignment. You can feel the bloody disappointment dripping from the heart on dp's sleeve in post 616 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761660&viewfull=1#post2053761660). I believe this is strongly indicative of someone who can't just murder another player to excuse himself from having to play with him for very long. There's a certain helplessness that you can't fake when you're stuck in a game with someone who provokes you, and you want to play well and coordinate well with your team, and they might be a game-long obstacle to that and interfere with your enjoyment of it.
Page 9: 667 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761718&viewfull=1#post2053761718) great process, logical and measured. After I just said this can be scum or town pr causing tension he immediately asks why not town pr. 716 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761774&viewfull=1#post2053761774) sticking up for his town reads.
Page 10: 739 and 742 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761806&viewfull=1#post2053761806) and 746 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761810&viewfull=1#post2053761810) in-depth, layered thoughts below the surface on Csargo, in response to Cuth asking for a spicy read. I may/may not agree on Csargo but this process looks real. 760 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761829&viewfull=1#post2053761829) by now dp101 is seriously clearing himself. This is not just meta, it's just not something dp would do in my estimation. Conflicts with his personality. He's unlikely to shift it for the sake of a game.
Page 11: No posts.
Page 12: 934 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762143&viewfull=1#post2053762143) excellent post.
Page 13: 993 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762288&viewfull=1#post2053762288) is pure from dp, defending his town reads.
Page 14: 1049 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762364&viewfull=1#post2053762364) do you think this is dp really arguing against a cfd that would change the outcome of the round to not lynching scum logic while also being scum? Even if it landed on a somehow scum Monty, it would be confusing enough to be worth it. Logic would look good, the cfd'ers would look good, the people pushing logic would look bad. This is not dp-scum behavior here.

The refusal to derail onto Monty and off of Logic and the subsequent tag teaming by Zack and GH onto their formerly lock town friend dp101 looks absolutely great for dp101 and it looks like butt for Zack/GH.

But the main point is, we're not lynching dp101 ever.



Selected quotes:



INCORRECT!

So far I've done among the most work out of anyone. Plus, the moves are good. It's better to make good moves than a bunch of bad ones like Monty.Doing work and wrapping it in so many jokes and references that it's impossible to read is very hard to distinguish from pretending to do work. I'll try to read your logic post again to see if it makes sense, but I know for sure that I didn't get it my first time through.
Dp trying to be helpful and to understand and to communicate. I feel like this is his default zone, his natural happy place.

So it's lazy for me to expect that other people should post in a manner that is easily understood without having to google things? More specifically, I have literally no chess knowledge, and so I wouldn't even know what part of the post quoted in 167 to put into google. I'm already tired of talking about how I tried joking about something and thought about reading someone off of it, but retracted it, so I'm not even going to address that point. I would love to know what you think I need to do to make a read worthwhile, because while you call post 247 a no effort read, you are missing 2 things: Firstly, me reading him town there was not just from that one post, but from his consistently natural behaviour congruent with standard town Zack gameplay, and secondly, I was joking in how confident I was because of his comment about him being annoyed with people strongly townreading him for no reason.

I love hearing someone call me lazy when I've posted 3-4 times as much as them. You claim that I'm posting just to post, but it's D1, that's my standard thing until someone actually makes a post that I feel I can make a case on them off of, and that hasn't happened yet. Thus, small jokes and reads. Quite frankly, the way you phrased this post makes it seem like you are trying to provoke me/insult me, and I think I should probably take a break so that I don't lash out more.
Dp101 is not someone I feel appeals to emotion or sympathy as scum. This is just him responding to something that seemed insulting/provocative and undiplomatic from his perspective, from reinoe. And it all washes as a real reaction. Layers of thoughts also revealed in this post.


Ok apparently I'm not stepping away to cool down, because this is the most hypocritical post in the thread. You literally call me lazy, and then in the very next post, decline to do some very simple work asked in a friendly matter by someone who is most likely not scum at this point. Vote: reinoe because not only is your behaviour not helping town whatsoever, but you also seem determined to tilt people to put them off their game.

I am seriously going to take a break after this because this game is just making me angry right now, and I really really don't want to get tilted.
Yes. I've done this in games when I feel like someone might be damaging to it, or to the team, especially if it could even be scummy. This is a natural reaction.

Posting that I am not understanding something is useful to town, because the point of posting is to communicate ideas, and if I'm not understanding someone's posts when they appear not to be jokes, it is very important that I say something so that everyone can cooperate and read each other with minimal confusion.

At no point did I say "please clear me, I posted a lot". When someone comes in and does one post of analysis that reads like it's a personal attack on me, centred around me apparently doing nothing, then refuses to answer a simple question, that's what ticks me off, not me not getting townread by you simply by posting a bunch. I don't care if you scumread me, I just want you to be consistent, and when you criticise me for something and then immediately exemplify it, can you understand why I'd get a little ticked off?
Dp101 has that mediator's brain. He's looking for mutual understanding first, and playing the game later. I feel like this reveals a bit of dp's core personality and none of this is fake.


Can we lynch pizza for all the chess references?
Very tempting, but there’s a tell he hasn’t dropped yet.
I think dp believes in this kind of thing. He thinks I'll push him if I'm scum, and if I don't, I might be town. It's not that simple but I believe he believes it.

It should be illegal for Pizza to be having this much fun, this is obscene.
I don't know why, but I feel like this post is even more proof that dp101 is a townie. He's sympathetic, instead of looking for reasons why he can get a mislynch, he really seems to be putting his feet into the shoes of others and seeing if it makes sense. By now, the annoyance and confusion with the roleplaying has given way to just being in awe of how much I'm having fun. That's legitimately not a scummy mindset, I'm sorry, this is evidence of that.

I wonder if Pizza will post less if I give in and sheep him Vote: Logic
This is a sheep but my god it's a sheep for the towniest of reasons.

I understand the overall sentiment of this post, but I take issue with this portion of it. You know very well that I am not lissa, or "a few others", and personally, after playing with me for as many games as you have, I would think that you'ld know that I don't often do the expected thing. In particular, I really try and avoid getting heated as a wolf, because I feel it strays too close to the kind of emotional manipulation that makes me feel guilty, as opposed to the more fun gleefully lying about what I feel and why I feel it. Your first post is slightly accurate in that I can certainly imagine myself screwing around a little like that as a wolf, but overall I think I'd only do that at MU. After how fast I was caught as scum the one time I randed it on this website, I'm pretty sure that if it happened again, I'd be really frozen and clunky in my posting out of fear of that same kind of rapid collapse.
Ring of truth. This self-meta is real.

I've read everything, but I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to participate much tonight. I'm wiped out after a whole bunch of studying and probably should get more sleep than normal rather than play mafia late into the night. What I will say is that Zack is becoming even more lock town to me, I really feel the push on him is criticising him playing the game effectively rather than him doing anything scummy. I also think that the Fredwood mini-push based on the "unfortunately" phrasing is really stupid, and probably a poor look for everyone involved. Such a minor phrasing thing is just a really poor thing to base a read off of. Also, I think I'm mostly off of the Logic wagon, the GH analysis feels like it pushes him more towards town than anything else. Zack's Barto case looks decent, and I think that it is probably one of the stronger options at this point in time. The swap to chox is hot garbage IMO, the strategy of lynch the lowposter is rarely a good one. I get that the posts themselves have been a tad sheepy, but not sure that it's enough to make him the lynch.
Dp101 very direct and gaining confidence. He's telling truths no matter who doesn't like them. Truths as he sees them at least. He's already done quite enough to be town read and to paricipate in the game, and he's showing a lot of WIM coming back to the game.


Zack I'm kicking you out of my town until further notice. I think Monty is right about you.

Well I think this is the towniest he’s ever been in any game I’ve played with him. I haven’t gone through and checked in what ways it is different, but just because someone’s different doesn’t make them scum.
This is basically where dp101 should be. Zack's game to this point should be getting this reaction from dp I believe. This is him consistently challenging people who push on his town reads.


Disagree. I think Zack is realizing I'm getting that wolf flip despite the fact that he argued against it and is now looking for more scapegoats to push tomorrow.I feel that this statement comes from a tunneled perspective. You see it as coming from a wolf because you are already so certain of your push.
Organic.

Look, if it’s me and him in F3, I’ll vote him, because he should not be alive at that stage, but before then, I don’t think it’s a good option.
Sterling process. He's agreeing that there are universes where Zack being alive would be legitimately disconcerting, but he's not ready to hang him yet. Just as you should. I'd be worried if I could sway you that easily on rock solid town reads.

Zack please do not do this. Monty really hasn't done much AI at this point, other than be wrong, and we haven't even confirmed if he is wrong yet, I just think he is.
This is never a wolf.

We're done here. You never lynch dp101 this game. And the Zack/GH pushes onto him were hot garbage. I don't care if it doesn't make sense as a scum strategy, it doesn't make sense for town even less. Both of these guys had him as lock town and then they're going to cfd him with no discussion or warning simply because he won't derail the Logic wagon and kill Monty? That is crappy.

This is a lock that you never unlock. Not gonna happen or we'll have words in DVC about why you thought this was ever a good idea.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I love being read :)

I'm not sure though if I can ever get a secure town lock if me being 'Supertownie' already isnt enough ^^. But overall it's a correct read, playing as townie as possible is my overall mafia strategy including bussing when it makes sense... in the Orchestrated Chaos Game I even put all 3 of my partners in my scumpile at the start of D4 ready to kill them all so I could solo the game... funny enough the last thing jp (one of the F3 that voted SmartBomb over scum!me) said to me after the game was over was 'I just thought you were super town, oh well............' so the supertownie reference is definetly on point :p

That being said I'm not mafia this game (and probably wouldnt share this if I was... or maybe I would? https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/brauen.gif)... lynch me lylo if you want because currently I feel like we would have majorly screwed up somewhere if we even let it get that far.

Don't have much time to do much reading/solving myself today but we have a 72h day coming up so w/e :)

This is what I'm looking for as a response. Not nervous, and the "lynch me at lylo" is perfection.

You got nothing to hide. 98 percent confident. You are lock until Lylo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, guys and gals, are we on the same page with these locks?

Winston 100 percent lock town (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762566&viewfull=1#post2053762566)
Kagemusha 100 percent lock town (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762579&viewfull=1#post2053762579)
dp101 100 percent lock town (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762626&viewfull=1#post2053762626)
Slaan 98 percent, Lylo only (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762608&viewfull=1#post2053762608), never before.

If you ever think of pushing any of these people in any future round, consult these linked posts and explain how they're scum. You're pushing in the wrong direction I tells ya. I'll be spinning in my grave. I'll haunt you in DVC. I swear to all that is cheesy.

[Montmorency]

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play/page23&p=2053761740#post2053761740), so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play/page7&p=2053761123#post2053761123)) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761157&highlight=vote%3Alogic#post2053761157) - Reinoe (switched onto Zack (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761197&viewfull=1#post2053761197) soon after, had some other votes (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/search.php?searchid=2584003) as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761370&highlight=vote%3Alogic#post2053761370) - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761531&highlight=vote#post2053761531), then back to Logic #796 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761962&viewfull=1#post2053761962))
#511 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761529&viewfull=1#post2053761529) - Winston (Changes to Barto #521 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761554&viewfull=1#post2053761554), changes back to Logic #539 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761573&viewfull=1#post2053761573) after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761628&viewfull=1#post2053761628) - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play/page23&p=2053761740#post2053761740) - Slaan
#777 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761857&viewfull=1#post2053761857) - Choxorn

#919 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762122&viewfull=1#post2053762122) - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762322&viewfull=1#post2053762322) - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it


Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

My bad, I missed this vote and change back to Logic.

Manual failure.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Fredwood the likely townie.


Page 1: Nada
Page 2: Nada
Page 3: Nada
Page 4: Nada
Page 5: 387 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761345&viewfull=1#post2053761345) is a really solid opening post. Quote it for you below. I don't know how alignment indicative it is, but it looks great.
Page 6: 464 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761459&viewfull=1#post2053761459) is truly amazing in retrospect. 480 is a funny snap back to GH's weak smudge and feels like it has town gravitas.
Page 7: NAI I think.
Page 8: Nada
Page 9: 676 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761731&viewfull=1#post2053761731) strong town read on Slaan, which I feel like is non-consensus. 680 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761735&viewfull=1#post2053761735) nuanced positions. 709 feels true.
Page 10: 721 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761779&viewfull=1#post2053761779) depth of read on Slaan.
Page 11: Very interesting reaction to Fredwood saying unfortunately (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762060&viewfull=1#post2053762060) Logic looks like the logical lynch. Just looks like opportunism.
Page 12: Fred's response to GH is solid here (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762078&viewfull=1#post2053762078). After a fairly contrived negative paraphrasing of what Fred was saying by GH, Fred's responses are all solid to me.
Page 13: Nada
Page 14: Nada
Page 15: Check out 1162 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762497&viewfull=1#post2053762497) for me, please.


Selected quotes:


Sup Jerks. So I read all this thread...lol@me I even viewed 7 minutes of the two minute videos posted.

(pizza snip)

Vote: Reinoe
Click for full post. I feel this is a strong opening post. Think he could do it as both alignments.


You're right. My town reads are not as important to me as my scumreads. And yes, I'm deliberately not answering Zack's question about said townreads. Although I disagree with what you're saying. DP seems genuinely frustrated in a "caught for the wrong reasons" kind of way and I'm sincere about getting tired of him constantly talking about being confused.

Although I didn't call logic sum for not talking to Zack. I didn't give a reason for why logic is scum (it's for 215 which seems so out of place). I said they're talking to each other. My reasons for thinking logic is suspicious is entirely separate.I don't care about your suss on Logic aside from the fact that you're not pushing him. My issue is you pushing Zack over logic because "Zack" didn't talk to logic. You're saying logic is scum, therefore Zack is scum because he's avoiding logic. Well get logic lynched first then go after Zack.
This one is way more alignment indicative. This is a solid process-based complaint with reinoe, who he's also suspecting. Since Logic flipped scum, telling him to push Logic is a good look for Freddy.

Oh good, the iso only works for one day phase.
Well, at least we know he tried to iso csargo in XCOM. Thing is, I also iso to gather data on someone I suspect, and I can do that as a wolf too, so it's not proof. I just think it looks townie of Fredwood to a mild degree.


As a recipient of Barto's unique version of the welcoming committee and me getting a bug in my bonnet about it, he does feel different. I feel a demonstrable difference between Bart in Xcom as opposed to Logic in XCom. Unfortunately most of Logic's play has been off the back foot so even if I did sense a change in playstyle.

I agree with Monty in the sense that Logic feels like the "correct" lynch today, but illogical me would like to vote Bart here.

Anyway fatigue etc etc etc neither have been here defending themselves etc etc etc.
Basically yeah, I'm willing to vote either here, but I think I'm leaning Logic (unfortunately)
Logic lynch, he looked a bit scummy, he feels bad about the overwhelming push against him, and what looks like an inability to fight back. Logic is very sympathetic. I don't think this conclusion is scummy. I often feel bad about who I'm pushing but I still gotta do it.


Depends on the strength of the read and the reliability of the pursuer. I've been in a lot of games where consensus was right, i've been in a lot of games where it wasn't. So I don't really see how that's a relevant question, it's not common or rare enough to really discount the voracity of Pizza's read because of it.

I haven't seen this much of a consensus of a lynch Day 1 though, this is what was bothering me earlier. To the point where you defended him, I guess Zack had a soft defense that didn't leave an impression everyone was cool with his lynch.

I don't see a world, even if Logic does survive (I'll set aside that if he does survive it won't be because he did a good job tapdancing), that this won't be a thing for the rest of the game. His pressure has been oppressive to an absurd degree and the only way I won't vote him today would be because I empathize with him; this would blow as either alignment.

Because I feel hella sorry for him.
These posts look good for Fredwood.


I mean, the interpretation/paraphrase that makes most sense to me is the following:

There are two wagons right now, Logic and Barto. I'm scumreading Barto more than Logic but am fine with either lynch. Unfortunately I'm still going to vote Logic despite my greater scumread of Logic.

It just... doesn't make sense from town? It's almost like he's trying to appease Pizza.What? That seems a bit of a manipulation.
I agree.

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.
My only complaint here is that he's not hitting back hard enough. Strange is an understatement. But I don't sense a problem with Fred's initial reaction or his questioning of GH's motives here, and his methods. It looks scummy, and he does rip GH's bad argument to shreds. Fred looks strikingly town here. Notable how GH backs off after this instead of pursuing it harder. But I'm finding townies so.


Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.
This one was important to include. After the flip, and GH's EOD shenanigans and GH's strange pushes on Fredwood, if Fredwood is scum and GH is not, Freddo has all the momentum and support in the world by now to capitalize against GH.

He's not doing it in my opinion because he can't make heads or tails of why GH would be this bad as scum. It seems beneath him.

That's a townie mindset, a lot.


Lol not really, I'm having a hard enough time self-arguing WiFoM why scum GH makes that play there let alone with Zack Xposting with GH. Couple that with the the xpost on the push on me, if they are teammates, they have shit timing.

This is the deal. How in the world could either Zack or GH be this terrible at being a scumbag? For the sake of Logic? He's got value as a partner but there's something really screwy here with what could possibly be causing this amazing collapse. It doesn't match elite scum behavior. But it sure doesn't look like towning either. Fredwood struggling with this because townies have to struggle with this.

We don't know what the strategically correct decision is. If they're just having a bad game, and are town, then lynching them is bad. Townies don't know. Mafia would know to push the crap out of GH or Zack here, if either are town. Especially if you got pushed around scummily by one of them.

Fred has a strong town mindset. His process is good, and his picking at the process of others is also good and doesn't feel manipulative. He's also got a great attitude, and watching him swat away GH's bad attack was a thing of beauty regardless of GH's alignment.


Conclusion: Fred is a strong townie read, and while he's not a lock, there's no way you should be touching him on day two or day three.

reinoe,

I'm asking you directly to let him go for a while. You do what you want if you think this is wrong, but I don't think this is wrong. Freddo has the blue suit. This isn't the candle favor, I got a different one for you. Just consider this one additionally at your discretion.

[reinoe]

I wish there were more people talking during this night phase. Maybe because it's a weekend?

[Kagemusha]

Ok. What we know?

We know Logic flipped scum. Also we learned that there were 4 scum in the game.Now 3 left. First round the scum had 25% of the lynch votes. Would they have used those during day 1 when usually cases are very light? My opinion yes.

If we look at the Choxorn counter wagon against Logic at its peak:

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (5): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

El Barto (1): Csargo

Choxorn (6): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


If we accept that mafia had its hand in the counter wagon. These are the people who were voting Choxorn at that point:

Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic



Logic we know was scum. Monty started the wagon thus would have taken a rather large risk at initiating it, when for scum easier would be to find a good candidate and hop along. Winston flipped back to Logic with convincing argument. So we are left with:

Zack,GH,Reinoe


I think it is safe to assume that this is not the full mafia team, as it would have been awful play to set all their eggs in one basket. Its possible, but not likely.

From this fellowship. It was GH who hopped in the wagon with basically zero reasoning. So based on that seeing what GH flips will give us maximum amount of information as for example at the start he had a weak case against Cuth, which he never really drove home and flipped easily away from it to Choxorn. It was also Cuth who chatted with Logic before the game really started, basic stuff for scum. So flipping GH next can give us maximum amount of information in case he flips scum. If GH flips scum. Cuth is obvious continuity and if our luck keeps running the mafia team has been almost wiped out at that point.

Town has now great momentum and based on the silence of the thread the scum team are not happy campers at the moment. I know some might suggest that we should flip Zack or Reinoe before GH, but with KISS principle. The more simple solution to the problem we can find more likely it is the correct one.

Last point if i die tonight. I think something that should be looked at more carefully would be the Bussing of DP101 and not take anything by face value. Was that bussing dangerous to anyone and what did it achieve?

[Kagemusha]

Im sorry if im not coherent enough. I drove 7 hours in a rain and half of it in the darkness, so im bit tired. I am happy to answer any questions about anything for couple hours.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Fair chance I don't make it so, just letting you guys know that I saw enough from reinoe and Monty throughout the round, Monty especially, to put a don't lynch tag on both. I'm getting worn out though. I'll have to pick this up if I survive the night phase. Feel free to pick up the baton and start finding townies to add to town that can't be scums.

This is the favor I want from you btw reinoe: Xiahou is probably town. He's not able to establish it based on his minimal day one posting so he's vulnerable. I think he ends up being spewed townie upon some people flipping wolf, and I also think that he's sharp and is going to make an impact on this town in a positive way.

He could get silly-lynched before he can establish his townie-ness. Smack people if they do this.

I feel like Xiahou and El Barto and Cuth are low hanging fruit at this point, and it's pretty likely all three are town in my estimation. If one is scum, then it's one, not three. This group isn't clear and Cuth looks the most town out of them but I get the feeling their weak day ones in the generic sense will get them into trouble. But generics are not specifics and that's too easy. It's gotta be good reasoning, but I think EB and Cuth will have to defend themselves. I want someone making sure Xiahou doesn't get sniped if he's less active and unable to post much.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I lack sleep and as fun as it is to hunt, I'm burned out so it's less fun going forward.

Sorry I can't stick around to talk. GLGL reading my walls. If I die, that means I am on vacation after a job well done (I hope) so I'll still be happy.

Wish me luck tonight.

[Kagemusha]

I lack sleep and as fun as it is to hunt, I'm burned out so it's less fun going forward.

Sorry I can't stick around to talk. GLGL reading my walls. If I die, that means I am on vacation after a job well done (I hope) so I'll still be happy.

Wish me luck tonight.

Thanks for the great job with your analyze Pizza!:yes:

[Slaan]

Wish that you die so you can get some rest or wish that you survive? :D

I'll head to bed as well, so in case me gets ripped let me give you my current list:

dp101, pizza, Winston, Kage
Fred
Monty, Csargo, Barto, Reinoe, Zack, Cuth, Xiahou
GH, Manasi
Chox

The big middle pack I'll need to sort out and have no strong feelings about one way or the other. I'm totally fine with pizzas points on Winston and kage/dp were looking good regardless (I got a bit sus of dp after his CFD comment but after Logic flipped mafia that looks very good for him).

The scummy points towards GH and Chox havent changed, I'm looking forward to hear from GH today. Manasi is just not playing like I'm used to, she is normally very chatty and active and here it's just ... well not much which pings me scummy.

Alright, gn8 all :)

[Slaan]

Thanks for the great job with your analyze Pizza!:yes:

Oh yea, he makes a great workhorse.

[Montmorency]

Ok. What we know?

We know Logic flipped scum. Also we learned that there were 4 scum in the game.Now 3 left. First round the scum had 25% of the lynch votes. Would they have used those during day 1 when usually cases are very light? My opinion yes.

If we look at the Choxorn counter wagon against Logic at its peak:

Vote count:

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (1): Xiahou

Logic (5): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

El Barto (1): Csargo

Choxorn (6): Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto


Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


If we accept that mafia had its hand in the counter wagon. These are the people who were voting Choxorn at that point:

Montmorency, Zack, GH, Winston Hughes, Reinoe, Logic



Logic we know was scum. Monty started the wagon thus would have taken a rather large risk at initiating it, when for scum easier would be to find a good candidate and hop along. Winston flipped back to Logic with convincing argument. So we are left with:

Zack,GH,Reinoe


I think it is safe to assume that this is not the full mafia team, as it would have been awful play to set all their eggs in one basket. Its possible, but not likely.

From this fellowship. It was GH who hopped in the wagon with basically zero reasoning. So based on that seeing what GH flips will give us maximum amount of information as for example at the start he had a weak case against Cuth, which he never really drove home and flipped easily away from it to Choxorn. It was also Cuth who chatted with Logic before the game really started, basic stuff for scum. So flipping GH next can give us maximum amount of information in case he flips scum. If GH flips scum. Cuth is obvious continuity and if our luck keeps running the mafia team has been almost wiped out at that point.

Town has now great momentum and based on the silence of the thread the scum team are not happy campers at the moment. I know some might suggest that we should flip Zack or Reinoe before GH, but with KISS principle. The more simple solution to the problem we can find more likely it is the correct one.

Last point if i die tonight. I think something that should be looked at more carefully would be the Bussing of DP101 and not take anything by face value. Was that bussing dangerous to anyone and what did it achieve?

Kage, what do you think of Pizza tentatively judging that Cuth-GH-Logic interactions look relatively good for Cuth? It's somewhere in the sea of walls, if you use the browser search.

I tend to get GH wrong, so I've been ignoring him where he doesn't leave an impression, but aside from he and Zack having a lot of 'splaining to do for EOD, the game has been neglecting him so someone needs to ISO.



I feel like Xiahou and El Barto and Cuth are low hanging fruit at this point, and it's pretty likely all three are town in my estimation. If one is scum, then it's one, not three. This group isn't clear and Cuth looks the most town out of them but I get the feeling their weak day ones in the generic sense will get them into trouble. But generics are not specifics and that's too easy. It's gotta be good reasoning, but I think EB and Cuth will have to defend themselves. I want someone making sure Xiahou doesn't get sniped if he's less active and unable to post much.

I've made my feelings up to now clear on Xiahou, right? Pushing Xiahou for 2 posts would be NAGL, forreal. I hope he gets active though.

[Montmorency]

BTW that post was me saying that I'm now working on a GH ISO, that wasn't clear that I'm not asking the thread in general to do it for me.

[Dp101]

Pizza for MVP.

[reinoe]

Spicy.

Strong.

On the other hand, half the players haven't entered play yet. What about Winston? He's been locked into sparring with Zack, and hasn't interacted with or on Logic either.



Maybe you and Winston are talking?

On the other hand, we have a few aggressive players...



Winston. Unless
@reinoe (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=100841)

What do you think of Winston-Zack m/m?
On re-read. I missed this.

Winston's town. Zack probably mafia.

[reinoe]

Spicy.

Strong.

On the other hand, half the players haven't entered play yet. What about Winston? He's been locked into sparring with Zack, and hasn't interacted with or on Logic either.



Maybe you and Winston are talking?

On the other hand, we have a few aggressive players...



Winston. Unless
@reinoe (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=100841)

What do you think of Winston-Zack m/m?
Trying to determine Monty's alignment. Stumbled across this...
Winston town. Zack likely mafia.

[Kagemusha]

Kage, what do you think of Pizza tentatively judging that Cuth-GH-Logic interactions look relatively good for Cuth? It's somewhere in the sea of walls, if you use the browser search.

I tend to get GH wrong, so I've been ignoring him where he doesn't leave an impression, but aside from he and Zack having a lot of 'splaining to do for EOD, the game has been neglecting him so someone needs to ISO.

There are couple of players i dont agree with Pizza and Slaan. With Pizza is Cuth, but he is not yet at our reach. If we can flip scum from GH, avenue for investigation opens towards Cuth and Zack. I think Cuth can be scum and i cant see anything clear which would say he is not. I joined GH in his vote against Cuth in order to get something out from Cuth and also see how GH would pursue the case, but to me.GH´s case against Cuth was hot air, which can create a connection between GH and Cuth.

The player i disagree with Slaan is Chox. I dont see him as top priority lynch. I dont think the scum would have bussed seriously yet another mafia against mafia, which leads to DP. Im not as sure as Pizza about DP. With a smart scum team. He could be playing the second violin, thus getting close to Pizza, but that could be also just my paranoia.

[reinoe]

Abandoned Monty read to do logic and he had no associative tells I could discern other than that he's definitely not aligned with Kage.

[reinoe]

There are couple of players i dont agree with Pizza and Slaan. With Pizza is Cuth, but he is not yet at our reach. If we can flip scum from GH, avenue for investigation opens towards Cuth and Zack. I think Cuth can be scum and i cant see anything clear which would say he is not. I joined GH in his vote against Cuth in order to get something out from Cuth and also see how GH would pursue the case, but to me.GH´s case against Cuth was hot air, which can create a connection between GH and Cuth.

The player i disagree with Slaan is Chox. I dont see him as top priority lynch. I dont think the scum would have bussed seriously yet another mafia against mafia, which leads to DP. Im not as sure as Pizza about DP. With a smart scum team. He could be playing the second violin, thus getting close to Pizza, but that could be also just my paranoia.
Oh another person is here. What do you think about Zack=scum?

[Kagemusha]

Oh another person is here. What do you think about Zack=scum?

Zack= Scum is too early for me. Zack like Pizza are analogous to staring at the sun. You only go blind with simple focus on either, they usually create so much content that focusing on them will only lead to bad conclusions. You need more and in this case like i replied to Monty. If GH flips scum. Zack should go under scrutiny.

[reinoe]

He likes to troll people, especially unfamiliar people. Not saying your vote is misguided for pressure - just beware of a self-reinforcing cycle.
This seems townie. He's providing advice on how to read a player who apparently gets misread often while not actually defending or attacking El Barto.

I have to pettifog this. In this game the newcomers are Slaan and Reinoe. In Pokemon there were two as well, Champ and Severing Viper.

...

And what's this sudden Manasi shift, Manasi specifically?
I'm gonna give town-points to Monty for using "pettifog".

Hmm, but you leave out FrenchRev, where (on the public end) he similarly lolcatted and complained. And I guess for a lot of people XCOM was a rather unique experience.

Here's some major excerpts from Barto's D2 in FrenchRev, where you voted him for similar reasons:








Your best rebuttal may be that his only D1 activity in FrenchRev was:



while here he hasn't AFAIK announced RL limitations.
Here he's going back and forth with Zack about how to read El Barto. I can see that Monty really wants to be able to read a slot that's difficult to read. On that note I'm fine with just leaving El Barto alone. It looks like he has a playstyle that will have me reading him scummy by default.


Hi.



What do you think of Choxorn?
Asking for other's opinions about another player.


I don't feel any urgency to lynch right now, since half the day is ahead and a number of nulls like Choxorn, Cuth, Barto, and Xiahou remain to sort out. The case against Logic is relatively good for D1, and we need to see him respond against all those nulls. Right now I'm fine continuing to vote you.

Re Manasi: I mean that she would be putting out observations or prods toward her teammates, and she doesn't seem to be observing or prodding much of anyone so far, other than joking with you as usual.

Re: Barto, yes, and he never broke out of it and got lynched. So? That took 2 or 3 days to fill out.
Choxorn is null...

GH
Logic
El Barto
Manasi
choxorn

scumpile

Hi.



What do you think of Choxorn?
Piggy-backing off Winston's scum list?

Stopping here...
Montmorency
When did you start getting suspicious of Choxorn? Which interaction caused that?

[Kagemusha]

Here is my list of players as testament, as even with this start. There is always the option how miniscule as possible that Pizza flips scum. Busses his scum buddy at first round totally and finally wins the game, which btw would be masterful and deserved, so after day 5 start thinking of it. ;) Im afraid town proof old me is yesterdays news.

Scumbucket:

Logic
GH
Cuthillius
Zack



Townbucket:

Kage
Pizza
Slaan
Csargo
Fredwood
El Barto
Choxorn
Winston Hughes

Not enough info bucket:

Dp101
Manasi
Xiahou
Reinoe
Montmorency


Of course this would/will hopefully change with new information.

[Dp101]

Not enough info bucket:

Dp101

So, Pizza posts a massive treatise on why I'm town, and you claim that there's not enough information out there to read me? Hell, even if you don't trust him, you sure you can't get a read on me from how EOD played out? This makes no sense.

[Kagemusha]

So, Pizza posts a massive treatise on why I'm town, and you claim that there's not enough information out there to read me? Hell, even if you don't trust him, you sure you can't get a read on me from how EOD played out? This makes no sense.

This is my personal opinion. Nothing to do with trust. We should remember its night 1. I can think of lot of things concerning the final moments of last day, but there is nothing to say with this amount of information.

[Montmorency]

I've only done 1/2 of GH ISO, but will post what i have.

Tangentially, I want to note that while I didn't do a full wagon analysis of my own, Fred, Slaan, and Kage during the night have put down everything that needed to be said overnight.


On re-read. I missed this.

Winston's town. Zack probably mafia.

Lol. Your answer to a question from early Day 1 is clearly not going to be valid for the circumstances in which the question was asked. I think that smacks of ingenuity.



Choxorn is null...


Piggy-backing off Winston's scum list?

Stopping here...
Montmorency
When did you start getting suspicious of Choxorn? Which interaction caused that?

Actually, yes. At that time I was a bit incredulous of pushes against Barto and Manasi, didn't have anything much to say about GH, and between my calling Choxorn null and my asking Winston about Choxorn (eventually voting Chox once wagons on Barto and Manasi began to appear, mostly on account of Zack and GH), Choxorn had his second set of 3 posts that I noted several times looked iffy. Around post 775 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053761853&viewfull=1#post2053761853).

[Montmorency]

GH ISO PART I (Half-day)


This isn't going to be fancy or user-friendly, I just searched the username throughout the thread and made notes and descriptions. I've only done 1/2 of the GH ISO, but I'll post what I have as of now. I think I may have made bad choices in formatting.

A. GH was active from the beginning, voting Csargo. Chats with Winston about music. Zack begins interacting with him, jokes about ellipses-as-scumtell.

B. Disappears for ~100 posts, returns to welcome-vote Slaan (who arrived soon after GH disappeared and interacted with Zack, Winston, Pizza, Monty, Csargo, Logic in rough order of volume).

Soon after, Winston makes the first leans-post of the game, to Zack's belittlement:


Dp101 - Lock Town
Slaan - Town

Logic - Null
Csargo - Null

Monty - Third Party

pizza - scum
GH - scum

Zack - lock scum

Logic has this to say about GH's vote:


If thats hiw you welcome newcomers, I guess I'm thankful that for my first game here you were unable to vote for me.

C. Returns another ~100 posts later to say:


Zack and dp look okay, Zack seems really natural and flow-y and Dp seems uncomfortable so far which is pretty solidly in his town meta.

Everyone else is either null or confusing.

Pizza agrees with the post and Zack asks GH how he reads him for scumminess. GH replies to Zack that he looks mostly looks for "tone and stuff", and for Zack to dispute others' townreads of him. Zack retorts that he can do this as scum to reinforce the meta impression. DP worries that if he ever moves past the meta GH attributed to him, he will endure many mislynches. For this, GH grants him a begrudging town-point. During the exchange, reinoe votes Logic and Zack votes Pizza. Zack asks GH why he has taken so long to get into the game despite being around the for the opening, and GH please inattention. Zack asks GH what he thinks of Pizza, is he null? GH agrees with null, finds Pizza's roleplay tough to decipher, asks Zack the same question. Pizza rates GH highly as town. Zack says he explained his feelings on Pizza, but GH wants more - Zack declines. Meanwhile, Csargo votes Pizza.

D. Once again, GH returns ~100 posts later to lock DP town and suss the voters on him; DP put heat on Pizza for the same reasons (cryptic posting) that GH did, and GH isn't get as much heat as DP, so that makes it a scum push, a case that DP appreciates and allows him to town-read GH, "for now". Zack asks if GH is implying that DP is an easier target than GH; GH affirms, either push both GH and DP or it's a lazy superficial read. GH passive-aggression toward Csargo's fireworks gif because Csargo once posted it as scum "in a similar situation". Zack identifies that game as Pokemon (Csargo elaborates), thinks it should be taken as NAI. Zack asks if GH refers to reinoe and Cuth when shading the DP voters.

E. Another ~100 posts later, Reinoe disagrees with GH that he and DP are making the same points about Pizza being confusing. Zack asks GH to answer his question about whom he was referring to on the DP train (Reinoe and Cuth), and asks about differences in Org vs. off-site meta. GH appears immediately after to make his first long case/analysis (to Fred's derision) and vote Cuth:


Here's where I'm at right now:

I think Zack and Dp are still town.

I'm not particularly interested in lynching Pizza today even though I don't really have a read on him.

I think Kage is displaying some pretty decent towntells so far (willingness to get into it with people early on and picking his spots as they come) but I'm not giving him a pass for the full game yet.

Of the two Dp pushers I talked about earlier, I like Reinoe more than Cuth because Reinoe's explanations are decent and more well thought out than Cuth's.

I'm a little bit wary of Slaan right now because he's acting a bit different than in other games I've played with him in/read of his, but I think it can be chalked up to adjusting to a new environment for now.

I think Fred could be a bit better so far.

Vote: Cuth

Zack asks for more detail and meta on kage, slaan, and fred, wants to know GH's meta better after getting burned in Pokemon.

GH answers Zack on meta, but can't give much substance, wonders if it changes Zack's read on him. Elaborating on reads, he firmly townreads Kage on meta and process, with Slaan and Fred a tier below since he doesn't know their scum games. On Slaan it's nullish or mixed based on experience, least experience with Fred but he should be more engaged:


Fred I'm least confident about but I think he's definitely had less engagement so far than he's capable of (yesyes, I know the same can be said for me, but I'm town so).

Slaan asks the thread that "if GH mislynches me kill GH :)". Zack says GH's read makes him feel better about Kage, asks Pizza for help identifying a game where Kage was outed as scum. Disagrees on Slaan and Fred, they're fine:


slaan seems fine, maybe he's a good wolf but not worth pursuing this early based on just paranoia. In my experience, having low thread involvement is not alignment-indicate for fred and fairly typical

GH still can't give better than a "crappy" answer to Zack about his own meta, but says the questions make him feel good about Zack. Makes joke to Kagemusha about an old player and forums skins. Logic shades Kage for not knowing ISO as a veteran player, but GH points out it's a more recently-adopted term than Kage's day.

Winston judges the above GH-Zack exchange as really townie. Kage FOS lowposters to participate more, GH urges him to follow him onto voting Cuth for the bad vote on DP. Pizza doesn't feel good about GH's vote on Cuth. NOTE: GH never directly answered Zack on if he was sussing Reinoe and Cuth specifically, and so this vote was kind of out of nowhere. Kage agrees that Cuth is looking rotten, "not quite pushing, trying to connect a bit, making excuses..Best bet for scum so far."




I want to do EOD (last 6 hours of day) separately, but noting the beginning of the night from GH it's strangely perfunctory given the EOD shenanigans. I'm suspicious of this kind of humor from GH after big events, though I'm not sure how it's manifested in the past.



Current self-portrait:

https://i.imgur.com/N1NYRuv.jpg

Good job, everyone. :2thumbsup:



So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum. GeneralHankerchief

[Csargo]

So, Pizza posts a massive treatise on why I'm town, and you claim that there's not enough information out there to read me? Hell, even if you don't trust him, you sure you can't get a read on me from how EOD played out? This makes no sense.

Thought your EoD made you look awkward imo, still think you're town, but just thought it a bit concerning.

[Sooh]

*microphone feedback sounds*

Ahem...

Testing... testing....

Is it working?

What was that? Is it work.... Can you just give me a thumbs up?

Oh, ok. Seems we're live.

Ok, so, ladies and gentlemen. Before the start of today's round of games we thought we'd just let you know that we had somebody check out of the player hotel last night, if any of you want to know who, check the bulletin board at the end of the foyer.

Rules today are as before, we'll play for 72 hours, or until somebody quits, and by quits I mean they get voted out. Strange.... I didn't think people voted in chess?


************************************************************************
BULLETIN BOARD

Winston Hughes,

You are Suren Aghabekyan.

https://yt3.ggpht.com/-IjIcTmRCZnI/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAAAA/P2lh_FpSvKw/s900-c-k-no-mo-rj-c0xffffff/photo.jpg

You run a successful youtube channel in which you show your viewers chess games with current and former chess champions. Your catchphrases are: "Hello chess lovers" and "dubious".

You are a Vanilla Town.


*******************************************************************************


EOD 2:
https://pending.me.uk/cd/bla_1507759200.png

[Csargo]

GH ISO PART I (Half-day)


This isn't going to be fancy or user-friendly, I just searched the username throughout the thread and made notes and descriptions. I've only done 1/2 of the GH ISO, but I'll post what I have as of now. I think I may have made bad choices in formatting.

A. GH was active from the beginning, voting Csargo. Chats with Winston about music. Zack begins interacting with him, jokes about ellipses-as-scumtell.

B. Disappears for ~100 posts, returns to welcome-vote Slaan (who arrived soon after GH disappeared and interacted with Zack, Winston, Pizza, Monty, Csargo, Logic in rough order of volume).

Soon after, Winston makes the first leans-post of the game, to Zack's belittlement:



Logic has this to say about GH's vote:



C. Returns another ~100 posts later to say:



Pizza agrees with the post and Zack asks GH how he reads him for scumminess. GH replies to Zack that he looks mostly looks for "tone and stuff", and for Zack to dispute others' townreads of him. Zack retorts that he can do this as scum to reinforce the meta impression. DP worries that if he ever moves past the meta GH attributed to him, he will endure many mislynches. For this, GH grants him a begrudging town-point. During the exchange, reinoe votes Logic and Zack votes Pizza. Zack asks GH why he has taken so long to get into the game despite being around the for the opening, and GH please inattention. Zack asks GH what he thinks of Pizza, is he null? GH agrees with null, finds Pizza's roleplay tough to decipher, asks Zack the same question. Pizza rates GH highly as town. Zack says he explained his feelings on Pizza, but GH wants more - Zack declines. Meanwhile, Csargo votes Pizza.

D. Once again, GH returns ~100 posts later to lock DP town and suss the voters on him; DP put heat on Pizza for the same reasons (cryptic posting) that GH did, and GH isn't get as much heat as DP, so that makes it a scum push, a case that DP appreciates and allows him to town-read GH, "for now". Zack asks if GH is implying that DP is an easier target than GH; GH affirms, either push both GH and DP or it's a lazy superficial read. GH passive-aggression toward Csargo's fireworks gif because Csargo once posted it as scum "in a similar situation". Zack identifies that game as Pokemon (Csargo elaborates), thinks it should be taken as NAI. Zack asks if GH refers to reinoe and Cuth when shading the DP voters.

E. Another ~100 posts later, Reinoe disagrees with GH that he and DP are making the same points about Pizza being confusing. Zack asks GH to answer his question about whom he was referring to on the DP train (Reinoe and Cuth), and asks about differences in Org vs. off-site meta. GH appears immediately after to make his first long case/analysis (to Fred's derision) and vote Cuth:



Zack asks for more detail and meta on kage, slaan, and fred, wants to know GH's meta better after getting burned in Pokemon.

GH answers Zack on meta, but can't give much substance, wonders if it changes Zack's read on him. Elaborating on reads, he firmly townreads Kage on meta and process, with Slaan and Fred a tier below since he doesn't know their scum games. On Slaan it's nullish or mixed based on experience, least experience with Fred but he should be more engaged:



Slaan asks the thread that "if GH mislynches me kill GH :)". Zack says GH's read makes him feel better about Kage, asks Pizza for help identifying a game where Kage was outed as scum. Disagrees on Slaan and Fred, they're fine:



GH still can't give better than a "crappy" answer to Zack about his own meta, but says the questions make him feel good about Zack. Makes joke to Kagemusha about an old player and forums skins. Logic shades Kage for not knowing ISO as a veteran player, but GH points out it's a more recently-adopted term than Kage's day.

Winston judges the above GH-Zack exchange as really townie. Kage FOS lowposters to participate more, GH urges him to follow him onto voting Cuth for the bad vote on DP. Pizza doesn't feel good about GH's vote on Cuth. NOTE: GH never directly answered Zack on if he was sussing Reinoe and Cuth specifically, and so this vote was kind of out of nowhere. Kage agrees that Cuth is looking rotten, "not quite pushing, trying to connect a bit, making excuses..Best bet for scum so far."




I want to do EOD (last 6 hours of day) separately, but noting the beginning of the night from GH it's strangely perfunctory given the EOD shenanigans. I'm suspicious of this kind of humor from GH after big events, though I'm not sure how it's manifested in the past.






So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum. GeneralHankerchief

GH looks more likely to be scum than Zack at this point in my eyes. Very conservative from him imo.

[Csargo]

Thought your EoD made you look awkward imo, still think you're town, but just thought it was bit concerning.

Oops

[Montmorency]

GH ISO PART II (2nd Half-day & EOD)


A. GH is getting more confrontational and voluminous in these stages, talking to more people. He confronts Pizza now, urging him to stop tunneling Logic and Csargo and townreading sheep; Logic is just like his Pokemon self. He agrees on Kage being townish, but "Kage is Kage, Logic is Logic, and one of them is definitely more naturally uncomfortable." Fredwood has a post contributing various reads, off-handedly mentioning that Reinoe's entrance was sloppy. GH picks up on this and asks about Reinoe, because he thought Renoe's entrance was fine.

Pizza resists GH on Logic, and GH agrees to check it out without changing his read in the meantime:


My context on Logic is way better than anyone else's.

Look for yourself. Pick a game, any game. Pizza's Logic=Townie challenge.

If you guys are just doing this to not be Pizza, that's not a good call or a good reason. But you do you.

If you ever get around to doing this, give me a real, honest assessment.

If you don't do a 180 I'm going to need a good explanation.

As opposed to a fake, scummy assessment?

Don't do it half assed or to confirm bias. Give it a real look where you can be wrong.

I don't mean to be insulting, but you're gonna go look to support your argument or refute me I think. Have an open mind.


GH agrees with Zack that consensus-wagon on D1 on a suspicious townie is unlikely to be productive, wants to diversify. Fredwood reiterates on why Reinoe's stance on Zack vis-a-vis Logic bothred him. Slaan asks whom GH is thinking about, and GH says some combination of Fred, Barto, and Reinoe, offering some commitment to be more active in the thread. Slaan asks why those three, and GH says "The three of them have actually posted and I don't really have a read on any of them.". Slaan is noncomittal. DP is OK with those candidates except Fred ("intermittent but genuine". Montmorency defends Fred to GH and asks for more on reinoe given that GH susses him but liked his entrance.

GH has looked at Barto and Fred, still has no idea on Barto, maybe lynch, it's a lazy read but GH doesn't care; Fred feels better, seems natural and focused, can be town for today. NOTE: GH supports himself with "I think it was dp(?) who said that while he was around he made some pretty good points, and here I agree pretty much", and this is something DP had just raised in a single sentence challenging his inclusion of Fred. This was just a ~20 posts and a couple hours back.

B. GH returns ~90 posts later with an ISO (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762018&viewfull=1#post2053762018) of Logic from Pokemon. Long post, but he concludes that Chess Logic is consistent with Pokemon Logic given the different circumstances of the early game in the two games, especially self-reinforcement of Pizza's pressure. Passive-aggressive comment to Pizza:


I don't think Pizza usually does it this early as mafia. Hopefully I'm just able to stop him from having it become one of Those Games this time and that's the end of that.

In fact, Pizza later complains that for all the insight GH missed Pizza's main point that Logic shouldn't be acting passive-aggressively, Logic should be more direct and forthright.

Right after the Logic defense, a Manasi vote:


In other news, I feel like poking the bear a bit.

Vote: Manasi

Zack asks how good GH is at reading Manasi, to which GH replies "reasonably well". Monty quibbles with GH about gamestates by noting that both Pokemon and Chess had 2 new players, with GH responding that Viper wasn't new. Monty asks why the Manasi vote, GH says to give it time. Winston likes Slaan's posts and general sense of towniness, to which GH adds that Slaan is a player who improves over the gamecourse and despite an early hiccup he unexpectedly doesn't want to lynch him. Winston feels "GH's big post looks townie in itself, but it feels a little scummy to me that he'd make that his main engagement with the thread at this stage."; GH explains he doesn't want to drown out the thread just for a low chance of being right. Winston thinks that's a weak post, clarifying so when Zack asks whom he refers to. GH asks Fredwood how often in his experience D1 consensus lynches have been correct, and asks why Fred is leaning Logic "unfortunately". Winston thinks Fred feels "real in the now", and GH asks how he feels about the "unfortunately" wording. Winston's response:


Contrived = scum?

Could be.

GH advances that Fred's wording if he doesn't care who is lynched between Barto and Logic doesn't make sense from town, and sounds like appeasement of Pizza; Fred finds this post manipulative. Fred explains "unfortunately" as feeling sorry/sympathetic for Logic, and defends the mehanics of consensus lynches to an extent. GH calls that lazy, because


you should vote for your biggest scumread regardless of context except for very specific exceptions.

This isn't one of them.

Fred is dismissive, and Winston doesn't like it at all:


Feels like Fredwood's playing 72/24, while GH is looking to eod.

Confrontation continues:


Winston: You might be right, I don't usually play 72/24, but can you explain how this is a Bad Thing?

Fred: My concern is still your wording, if you were fine with both wagons then I think you would have just left it at that.

Town play the day, scum play for the deadliine.

Vote: GH

Can you elaborate?

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.

Town's job is to use the time available to rebalance the information equation in its favour.

Scum's job is to ensure town guesses wrong at eod.

[To Xiahou] Zack is a bad vote.

Join me on GH.

For the town part you're generally correct, but I think you're oversimplifying the mafia's job. There's a lot more nuance to it, working on multiple levels to ensure both short and longterm success.

Luckily all I have to do is just say what's on my mind this game. :yes:

Show me the good stuff, GH.

Reinoe thinks out of all this Fred came out townie and GH awkward, but not sure if lynchable. Asks GH who his suspects are. Winston is prepared to place GH in his scumpile. Choxorn notes that townies control the day, so long days are good for information. Barto makes a rare post, and quoting GH on Reinoe he implies that Reinoe is bad because he voted Barto at some point.

C. In response to Reinoe, GH makes a long reads-post (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?152969-Chess-Game-Thread-In-Play&p=2053762208&viewfull=1#post2053762208).


Zack
Kage
Monty

Dp101
reinoe
Slaan
Logic
Winston
ATPG

---town line---

Csargo
Xiahou
Cuth
Fredwood
El Barto

Choxorn
Manasi

Zack and Kage are high town, as well as 'Monty being Monty', but most leans are more-or-less null. Weird: Manasi is at the bottom of the pile, but GH doesn't mention her and proceeds to make a small case against Choxorn. Slaan asks why he has Logic so high up, compared to Xiahou, and asks GH/Pizza on their opinions of each other given they have opposite understandings of Logic's meta. GH responds that he still thinks Logic is consistent with meta, and the sample size is bigger than Xiahou's. GH repeats his notion that self-reinforcing pressure and Pizza tunneling on Logic have snowballed to the current situation.


GH is "bored" and votes Choxorn, making it third on the wagon after Zack placed the second vote. Kage asks why.

D. Pizza makes his foreshadowed critique of GH's counter-case on Logic.


Thanks for looking at Logic, but I think you missed one of my biggest points and didn't look for it.

You saw his posts in another game as town, when he accused people, does he not consistently just say this post is scummy this person is a wolf I think this makes you more townie, his questions if any are more direct and mean what they appear to mean on the surface?

That's a highly highly consistent quality of his town game. He doesn't ask rhetorical questions or questions that undermine people in that manner, he doesn't do passive aggression. He's not highly aggressive but when he does it, it's pointed, and in fact, he does far more aggression (despite how mild it feels) in games than defending himself or anyone else.

And all of that solving is pointed and direct, not passive aggression.

I get how you're arriving at the conclusion that I'm just tunneling because I am, but if I'm tunneling on the right person and you're missing the biggest reason why it's right, I feel like we missed the chance for our minds to arrive at the same place.

I won't ask you to look again, but it was a massive part of what I wanted you to look for and I don't think you were looking for it. You found other stuff and I believe you're town, but I still think you missed the damning stark difference.

Kage suspects weirdness between GH and Winston, and asks about case on Choxorn, to which GH points to his previous post that Choxorn is not in line with meta. Notes that Winston probably town but no more extensive reads on him, doesn't respond to intimation of "weirdness" between the two.

With no context, GH says


Out of principle, I'm staying on Choxorn.

Read below for an account of the EOD CFD

EOD. Zack begins CFD on Monty, calls thread boring for not following. DP feels CFDs don't help, and usually hurt town, and "interesting != winning".

GH emerges to call out DP given that he was once taken down as Mafia by a CFD. Votes DP.

Zack suddenly does not like DP, feels he gave him too much credit early. Calls GH "a gentleman and a scholar".

GH asks Zack to join him on CFD; DP should know the power of a successful CFD given that he suffered them as scum at least twice.

DP can't believe this. Pizza was right about Zack. Votes Zack. Zack calls it OMGUS.

Zack criticizes the Logic wagon as a waste of time or ~rand at best. If Logic is scum, he was bussed.

DP counters that successful CFDs shouldn't obscure the unsuccessful principle.

GH doesn't believe town DP would have had this thought given his personal track record.

Zack rejects DP's counter, if you only look at failures and ignore successes then you get a skewed impression. Votes DP.


Moving votes around at EOD puts wolves in awkward, uncomfortable spots and forces people to put their money where there mouth is. I don't understand the stance you're taking here.

GH urges, "VOTE DP DO IT".

Zack thinks DP is scum; EOD peels away masks and reveals true intentions. platitudinous? DP throws it back at Zack. Zack throws it back back.

Kage asks what a CFD is. Zack and GH explain the concept.

DP thinks CFD for its own sake is a bad idea and lynching through reasoning and process is a better strategy.

Slaan refuses CFD but thinks it looks bad for DP. Winston also rejects CFD (quoting GH's exhortation).

Zack says Monty and DP are better lynches than Logic, and DP's is distorting so NAGL.

DP calls GH desperate for begging for a DP lynch, can't consider either GH or Zack town anymore.

ROUND ENDS


THAT'S A LYNCH!

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (2): Xiahou, Dp101

Logic (6): Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Dp101 (2): GH, Zack

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


Standby for flip.


That's scum GH swooping in for opportunities, right? At EOD? And being opportunistic throughout the day? Like with Fred?

Vote: GH

Partner analysis with Zack is critical, but going just by proximity for now I'm oriented towards not partners. But then I would have to ISO Zack, and that's maybe too challenging for me. Nevertheless, my earlier gut read was suspicious of Zack, so if the two aren't partners past prima facie then something has to give.

[Montmorency]

I think if GH flips scum then it confirms a few of Pizza's musings, it helps lock DP and Winston and looks fairly good for Fred off his exchange with GH (see Part IIB above).

[Manasi]

I tried catching up with the last 2 days ish and then I saw people voting me so I just came to check if I was lynched and guys look I wasn't.

Logic scum?

OPkie.wrpifjowigj.

[Manasi]

Oh it was from a CFD.

[Dp101]

Oh it was from a CFD.

No, a CFD failed and that's why we still got the lynch. I highly recommend you read through Pizza's analysis and EOD itself to get a better picture of the current game state.

In other news, Pizza, why are you not dead?

[Csargo]

No, a CFD failed and that's why we still got the lynch. I highly recommend you read through Pizza's analysis and EOD itself to get a better picture of the current game state.

In other news, Pizza, why are you not dead?

Because that gives credence to his analysis. With him alive gives reasonable doubt to his analysis.