Casual december game

[EnderWiggin]

I have no idea whether hk and boq are paired, that's not really what I was pointing out. Out of everything that hk's been accused of this game, that seemed to annoy them.

Also no idea what chainsaw means. If it's that the Renata post is a mess, then yeah. My main point on Renata is that, both EoDs look like someone who's concerned with how they're gonna be viewed in the aftermath of it all. If people don't see that, then I'm most likely wrong and Renata is just town.

At work so briefly spending some time here and not enough to do that question Justice. I'll try and remember to re-check this after work.

[Csargo]

Taffy has a very good tonal game as wolf.

Their positioning does feel very good if wolf tho, which is different to how they were last time they wolfed against me.

But Taffy is also a smart cookie and could have picked that up.

If they do see something they find wolfy they push hard for it but it's not a guarantee. Taffy comes from my homesite so I have a lot of experience with them.

That being said I could 100% be off the mark on them as they've snowed me before.

Has Taffy pushed anyone hard in your opinion?

[EnderWiggin]

Has Taffy pushed anyone hard in your opinion?

This game? No.

But the thing is she doesn't always push someone hard as town.

[Csargo]

I didn't like a couple of Taffy posts yesterday.

The Visor should die regardless of alignment, just doesn't seem like a townie thought to me. Could also just be annoyance with Visor though.

The self-quote calling it woofy is almost twtbat, just very defensive.

HK is the only person that comes to mind that Taffy's pushed. Maybe pizza, possibly ender. Visor as well.

[Renata]

Lots of us have pushed HK and lots of us haven't. He is objectively wolfy enough to be a wolf. I'd be interested if anybody still wants to say he's town and can back it up.

[dyachei]

What's the case on hk?

Well, he's not really pushed his ideas about the game very hard and he tended to do that a lot. Now he says he's trying to be less aggressive, which is fine, but like...he's not even being assertive here. And his vote on me was omgus i think

[hollowkatt]

People switching to Visor late at the last phase would be good to look into before not too long. Hollowkatt is still the best lynch in my books and should have been lynched already yesterday Vote: Hollowkatt


If one more person had switched to the wagon he would have been.


clearly it is in the wolves best interest to keep me alive for potential mistakes further down the road. Like ok, you've got a guy who draws wagons like drawing breath but isn't going over, it's not because he's being saved it's because it's not in their best interest for me to go yet.

[hollowkatt]

i dont see the stretch.
Our real timing ended up with both of us town reading each other after we had placed votes on each other

It can easily look like distancing tbh

I'd counter with this though: if we're distancing why are we arriving at a town conclusion on each other? That does more to pair, if we're trying not to pair, than coming away opposed still as being opposed allows the living, should one of us die, to point to the flip and the interaction that we had and attempt to clear themselves based on that.

Coming away with t/t conclusion only serves to link harder as opposed to distancing. Maybe I'm being too simplistic here but why do hard things when doing easy things is easier and you get away with them more?

[EnderWiggin]

Got a brief bit of time to look into things rn, break at work.

Time for me to do more sortin'

[hollowkatt]

if ender is town, i think ladd could be scum, regardless of my own read of ladd. Because if Ender is town, ladd has strictly pushed only townies. This would mean that Amy is town too


Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

Csargo, hollowkatt, Montmorency, Ampharos, dyachei, EnderWiggin, ladd, Vulgard, Boquise, Renata, Totally not Taffy, Kagemusha

swag helluva shot vulgard

[hollowkatt]

wouldn't it be funny if Ladd and Ender were wolves together again.

[EnderWiggin]

wouldn't it be funny if Ladd and Ender were wolves together again.

It would.

But also I would explicitly not distance with him because that's how we got caught last time.

[EnderWiggin]

none of this doesn't make sense so sure.

I'll share my town reads if/when I arrive at them, there's a slight niggling of something on Ender I think is positive but I'm sitting on that for the time being.
I don't believe in towntells because I think any wolf worth their salt can towntell, like you said in 189 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/154761-Casual-december-game?p=2053836728&viewfull=1#post2053836728) only replace derp/dumb with town or wolf at your leisure.

Hey HK did you ever explain what this niggle was on me?

[hollowkatt]

I was once again asking the thread to turn on Ender, and in response the players get all wack.

This is a more lost and fragmented Town than usual, huh.

Csargo >> Renata >> HK >> Monty >> Ender

And then Renata had to break the chain with the OMGUS.

I wonder if we could have ended the game then and there had Enderwiggin dropped in to close the loop by voting Csargo.

(I wouldn't be surprised if Mafia are setting up antispew through derailing conflicts throughout the day as Ender gets hard-bussed.)

I think Ender is town and won't be advocating for him to die

[hollowkatt]

Hey HK did you ever explain what this niggle was on me?

I didn't!
but I will, brb

[hollowkatt]

I didn't!
but I will, brb

I hate this site some times. I know it was early early in the game but no search allows me to see more than 100 posts for a player in a thread. halp plx

[EnderWiggin]

The reason I asked this question is the complaint comes from a person who either believes or knows all of those people are wolves.

Because there was no villagery vigilance here. Just talking about them like EnderWiggin knows they are town.

And the answer to my query did not, in fact, enlighten me as to how he arrived at this conclusion in bold red.

To go back to this for anyone keeping track of the game:

I assumed that wolves wouldn't pile onto me wholesale. So I assumed that having a small volume of people wolfreading me over my deliberate faux pas was filled with majority town.

I still maintain that I think 3/4 of it was town at least.

[EnderWiggin]

I hate this site some times. I know it was early early in the game but no search allows me to see more than 100 posts for a player in a thread. halp plx

Control + F is your friend.

Yes ISOs suck here. =P

[EnderWiggin]

i feel like exactly the people i would expect to be wolf read pre-rand are the ones people are most concerned about

I still don't like this post. Just noting here.

I think this (Especially with the clarification of "Amy") is meh on a "odd sus with no venom" level.

[EnderWiggin]

Aotp = Attack of the Pizza

I chuckle at my own jokes.

[hollowkatt]

ok, found what I was looking for


What is it about how I post that gets me wolfread every other game.

I swear I flip a coin at gamestart and no matter how I'm trying to post I get a bunch of early wolfreads or townreads and I don't feel like I'm posting any different.

And it's not alignment reliant because it's happened both ways as either alignment.


If I'm honest I was weaponising exactly this to see how people reacted to my Monty vote with no reasons.

post 1: townie self-awareness and frustration of "no matter what I do I get the wolf read" and then combine that with the second post and there's zero interest in self-preservation that I can see.

there's also these:

There's also another obvious wolfread here. But also I'm not saying it for another 20 hours just in case.


HK used to like playing with me.

Then he took an EnderTunnel to the knee.

I like the first post there for town because it draws peoples attentions, reminds them that you're sitting on something you'll share later, if at all, and generally isn't something I think a wolf wants to do to draw attention to themselves especially not when people like Visor, Pizza, and Logic are town as they're the kinds of players who are not going to forget about something like that.

The post I quote about me is not how I expect wolf Ender to approach the thread even if it is a joke, and I believe the post to be a joke. I've talked with Ender post Ender wolf/HK town games and not once has he ever expressed anything like this, and not once have I ever expressed I don't enjoy playing with him.


I was asking specifically, the people wolf reading you this game.

Name by name, do you think they are town or mafia yet, or do you not have an opinion?


Taffy/Monty = NAI or towny, unsure yet
Pizza = I have thoughts about this response but it's NAI broadly
Logic = wolfy (If I'm right on this then Monty is 100% town because the tell is how Logic "Piggybacked" off the read to push me.)

Finally these. They're follow-ups to the first set of posts I quoted and it's Ender putting solid thoughts into the thread, making semi-association reads off of those thoughts, and engaging directly with the most dangerous person in this thread.

Obvs Ender is not a wolf who's shy about going toe to toe with people but if I'm a wolf and have the opportunity to dodge/avoid Pizza I'm taking it.

All of this rolled together equaled "I'm pretty sure Ender is town"

[EnderWiggin]

I disagree with this, Ender's scumread on Asks was equally premature and based on stuff he should know is NAI as I think Asks' read on Ender is. They could both be wrong town, or it could be distancing since, if Asks is a wolf, he can't expect to endgame so he needs to do that right from the start.

Actually this is mildly wolfy hmmmm

[EnderWiggin]

Yes to be clear that was a joke because you early-voted me. Or early sussed me. I don't remember. I just remember you reacted badly to my Monty poke and so it was funny to me to say that.

Also thanks for that explanation I'm doing diving thoughts so will get back to you.

[EnderWiggin]

Dya/Ladd/Amy is not w/w/w

Just reading back and I'm more and more confident on this read.

[EnderWiggin]

Not to mention early mindmeld with Ender.

Given my record lately I'm probably wrong on both.

Alongside my other reasons to townread Renata this post specifically after Ladd goes full "yeet Ender" mode feels at odds with the steps wolves would want to take.

Weak townread can't hard clear but gut level I think it's towny.

[EnderWiggin]

I think HK is town.

His explanation is consistent with where his brain was going on D1/D2.

That would be impressive if he was wolf.

[EnderWiggin]

Actually dunno if I townread Amy after all. Putting that in a bluh after a read over.

I need to get back to work now so that's all for now. I think Dya/Monty is my highest wolfreads after those reads Ijust did.

[EnderWiggin]

Taffy needs to be reviewed better. I think that's possibly the most likely pocket that I've been stuck in.

[hollowkatt]

Dya/Ladd/Amy is not w/w/w

Just reading back and I'm more and more confident on this read.

can it be ladd/dya or ladd/amy or do you think that amy/dya are always the same

[Montmorency]

Summarizing my sentiments on the wagonomics so far, ahead of reading ladd for tomorrow:

D1


The following should be the current tally:

Logic (5): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Ladd, Visor
Visor (2): Montmo, Logic
HK (2): Taffy, Csargo
Luv2spooge (1): HK
ATPG (1): luv2spooge
Ender (1): ATPG
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Kage (1): Boquise

Late-mid D1. Logic always a dominant candidate D1.


Logic (5): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Ladd, Visor
Visor (2): Montmo, Logic
Kage (2): Boquise, Csargo
HK (1): Taffy
Luv2spooge (1): HK
ATPG (1): luv2spooge
Renata (1): Kagemusha

Late D2. Almost identical.


Ender (4): Ladd, Csargo, dyachei, Logic
Logic (3): Amy, Ender, Vulgard
Ampharos (3): Boquise, Visor, Renata
Visor (1): Montmo
HK (1): Taffy
Luv2spooge (1): HK
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Ladd (1): luv2spooge

EOD in 18 minutes friendos

Amp and Ender wagons appear. If Amp is maf, Boq looks good, though his initiation of the wagon could certainly be a calculated risk.


EOD1, final tally:

Logic (7): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Taffy ,Visor, Renata, Cape
Ender (5): Ladd, Csargo, dyachei, Logic , monty
Ampharos (2): Boquise, ATPG
Luv2spooge (1): HK
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Ladd (1): luv2spooge


Final tally. I don't believe there would have been any reason for more than two scum to sit on a wagon together for extended periods. So on the Ender wagon, Csargo-dyach should be antipaired.

D2


Boquise (2): Ender, Visor
Visor (1): HK
Vulgard (1): pizza
Monty (1): Vulgard
Ender (1): Renata

Shortly after Pizza's reveal.


Ender (4): Renata, Vulgard, Ladd[/COLOR][/B], Boquise
Amy (2): Visor, Ender
HK (2): Kagemusha, Taffy
Visor (1): HK
Dya (1): Pizza
Vulgard (1): Amy
Kagemusha (1): Cape

Nearly 12 hours later, Ender and Amy are once again prime contenders.


Ender (5): Renata, Ladd, Boquise, Vulgard, Dyachei
Visor (4): HK, ATPG, Ender, Taffy
HK (1): Kagemusha
Vulgard (1): Amy
Kagemusha (1): Cape
Taffy (1): Visor

chillax friendos.

Late D2. The Visor wagon has appeared. I didn't think there were more than 2 scum on Ender D1, and there's still really no reason at all for scum not to spread out D2. Ladd may have one, or even zero, partners voting with him on Ender.


Visor (3): HK, Ender, Taffy
Ender (3): Renata, Ladd, Vulgard
Kagemusha (2): Cape, Visor
HK (2): Kagemusha, dya
Vulgard (1): Amy

argl, ninjaed by Boq

EOD in 3 hours 40 minutes roughly

EOD movements. Boq unvoted Kage and Dya moved to HK. As in D1, we have a situation with two townie wagons, plus an alt wagon on a low-impact player.


EOD2, Visor has been yeeted under the sun! He flips vanilla town

Visor (6): Ender, Taffy, Renata, Csargo, HK, Boq
Ender (4): Ladd, Vulgard, Monty, Visor
HK (3): Kagemusha, dya, Cape
Vulgard (1): Amy

Final consolidation. Renata from Ender to Visor, Csargo on Visor, HK back on Visor, Boq on Visor.
Monty on Ender (and Visor self-pres). Ender wagon is pure other than for ladd. :P
Kage wagon fades for self-pres and Cape adds to HK.
Amp again ends the day parked off-wagons.

Once again, we must not expect any wagon to contain more than two scum - though I do believe Visor was dangerous enough that he had at least one scum voting him for sure.

Ladd-dya makes sense for separating out from Ender wagon to avoid association.

HK scum is tricky because it can still fit with a large series of permutations.

Most natural pairings on Visor wagon are Taffy-Csargo and HK-Boq. Renata has been at odds with HK and Csargo, but that isn't dispositive.

Kage and Amp will remain wildcards until a second mafia is flipped, so we shouldn't focus there.


Teams of interest: Taffy-Csargo + Amy/Kage; ladd-dya-... teams difficult to assess from VCA, better to ISO dya;

Thoughts on the thread D3:

*Kage and Amy AWOL, and in case you didn't expand the VCA I count them as wildcards for now.
*I could be biased since I'm entertaining, mechanically, a Csargo-Taffy pairing, but Csargo and Taffy seem a bit frozen, tentatively reaching out for shades to keep alive (let me repeat how sketchy Csargo's unusually-assertive case on Renata looks in the immediate aftermath of the Mafia leader (ladder) openly parking on Ender in response to my call).

[hollowkatt]

can it be ladd/dya or ladd/amy or do you think that amy/dya are always the same

nevermind I kept reading

[Montmorency]

Correction: Amp was only parked offwagon D2, it was Kage D1.

One more team I want to rule out is Kage-Amp-dya. Small-brain world.

Sad thing is that few to no suspects are going to be NKed by Mafia, as they'll be attempting to break through to mech-clear townies from now on.

[Montmorency]

I only remember Zack's game where you subbed in and were a woof.

Looking at those posts Visor never used words that exuded confidence in your alignment imo.

If you're town I do think you post high quality analysis, so the visor can soulread me angle is sort of odd tbh.

Mass Effect? Where Logic subbed in to a made-scum slot and shitposted a little before ghosting as the absolute consensus ouster settled around him and his team hard-bussed from the outset?

The Logic wagon that Visor initiated?


monty, i think logic/dolby is a wolf

that is the long and short of it


You are doing me a concern.

[D1 Csargo responding to Logic about who should know his meta]

[Csargo]

I was wrong, Visor already called me out on that. It's also tainted cause dolby, so it still would have been wrong anyways.

[EnderWiggin]

can it be ladd/dya or ladd/amy or do you think that amy/dya are always the same

I think it can be ladd/dya or ladd/amy.

I don't think amy/dya are hard paired.

[Boquise]

Summarizing my sentiments on the wagonomics so far, ahead of reading ladd for tomorrow:

D1



Late-mid D1. Logic always a dominant candidate D1.



Late D2. Almost identical.



Amp and Ender wagons appear. If Amp is maf, Boq looks good, though his initiation of the wagon could certainly be a calculated risk.



Final tally. I don't believe there would have been any reason for more than two scum to sit on a wagon together for extended periods. So on the Ender wagon, Csargo-dyach should be antipaired.

D2



Shortly after Pizza's reveal.



Nearly 12 hours later, Ender and Amy are once again prime contenders.



Late D2. The Visor wagon has appeared. I didn't think there were more than 2 scum on Ender D1, and there's still really no reason at all for scum not to spread out D2. Ladd may have one, or even zero, partners voting with him on Ender.



EOD movements. Boq unvoted Kage and Dya moved to HK. As in D1, we have a situation with two townie wagons, plus an alt wagon on a low-impact player.



Final consolidation. Renata from Ender to Visor, Csargo on Visor, HK back on Visor, Boq on Visor.
Monty on Ender (and Visor self-pres). Ender wagon is pure other than for ladd. :P
Kage wagon fades for self-pres and Cape adds to HK.
Amp again ends the day parked off-wagons.

Once again, we must not expect any wagon to contain more than two scum - though I do believe Visor was dangerous enough that he had at least one scum voting him for sure.

Ladd-dya makes sense for separating out from Ender wagon to avoid association.

HK scum is tricky because it can still fit with a large series of permutations.

Most natural pairings on Visor wagon are Taffy-Csargo and HK-Boq. Renata has been at odds with HK and Csargo, but that isn't dispositive.

Kage and Amp will remain wildcards until a second mafia is flipped, so we shouldn't focus there.


Teams of interest: Taffy-Csargo + Amy/Kage; ladd-dya-... teams difficult to assess from VCA, better to ISO dya;

Thoughts on the thread D3:

*Kage and Amy AWOL, and in case you didn't expand the VCA I count them as wildcards for now.
*I could be biased since I'm entertaining, mechanically, a Csargo-Taffy pairing, but Csargo and Taffy seem a bit frozen, tentatively reaching out for shades to keep alive (let me repeat how sketchy Csargo's unusually-assertive case on Renata looks in the immediate aftermath of the Mafia leader (ladder) openly parking on Ender in response to my call).

quick reflection: taffy and renata were on both flipped main wagons.
Probably unpaired?

[Boquise]

I'm gonna need you to convince me Dya wasn't just pocketing Amy.

But I'm leaning the same way on Amy herself.

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

[Csargo]

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

Is this a normal occurrence?

[Ampharos]

wow hello judging by the OP i have missed a LOT

i'm not sure i'll be able to plug back into this game in any meaningful way but i don't wanna be a COMPLETELY empty slot

[Csargo]

Ampharos was active for D1 and like half D2. I don't see why it's not possible?

[Csargo]

wow hello judging by the OP i have missed a LOT

i'm not sure i'll be able to plug back into this game in any meaningful way but i don't wanna be a COMPLETELY empty slot

~:wave:

[Ampharos]

bout to make some broad strokes assumptions about what y'all are discussing so bear with me if there are any inaccuracies in that sense

but in pretty much any given game i would expect dya to A. place a higher-than-ordinary emphasis on solving my slot and B. have a higher-than-ordinary accuracy rate in doing so

this is a pattern that consistently repeats across their village games and presumably wouldn't be significantly altered as a wolf

so reading into dya's posts towards me to look for pocketing is going to be... somewhat difficult

i'll note that i personally detected nothing out of the ordinary in interacting with them, which isn't a townread so much as "this didn't immediately trip any alarm bells"

[Ampharos]

~:wave:

hi! sorry for my absence - combination of an extremely busy past few days irl and a general lack of motivation to play mafia (p5r continues to be really good!)

but uhh from the few posts i've read surrounding ladd's death it looks like i'm going to be #neverpunished for it

so ggez

[Ampharos]

4. Montmorency - old townread i wanna keep
5. Ampharos - :)
9. EnderWiggin - almost certainly not w/ ladd
12. Vulgard - mech clear iirc?
15. Renata - old townread i wanna keep

2. Csargo
3. Hollowkatt.
7. dyachei
13. Boquise
16. Totally not Taffy
17. Kagemusha

3 in there? seems doable

[Csargo]

hi! sorry for my absence - combination of an extremely busy past few days irl and a general lack of motivation to play mafia (p5r continues to be really good!)

but uhh from the few posts i've read surrounding ladd's death it looks like i'm going to be #neverpunished for it

so ggez

It's okay, no need to apologize, life happens. I also have a lack of motivation tbh.

Indeed indeed.:bounce:

[Ampharos]

idk what if we just kill kage lmao

[Ampharos]

boq and kage vaguely unpaired for interactions i might be misremembering. gth if there's a wolf in here it's kage

hk and dya vaguely unpaired for interactions i might be misremembering. gth if there's a wolf in here it's very weakly hk

i stand by my "i think csargo would have handled visor's fake differently as a wolf" thought, but acknowledge that i need more than that to clear someone at this stage

taffy is a black box full of words i haven't read

[Ampharos]

vote: Kagemusha

this is fine for now

good work team see you in another week

[Vulgard]

I don't hate the Kage push.

I know I'm not exactly helpful today but I broadly agree with the susses. Personal priority is killing in Amy/dya (currently prefer dya) but I could be swayed otherwise.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (2): Ender, Vulgard
Taffy (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Kage (1): Amy

[Boquise]

Is this a normal occurrence?

Imo it is because it isn't a useful pocket. It is better to pocket either a lhf townie and then allow them to get misyeeted, or to pocket an active power town for protection tbh

[EnderWiggin]

Imo it is because it isn't a useful pocket. It is better to pocket either a lhf townie and then allow them to get misyeeted, or to pocket an active power town for protection tbh

Pocketing D1 because Amy was active-ish isn't crazy.

[EnderWiggin]

Also I have literally pocketed lhf because it's fun to turn the poe on town.

[Vulgard]

I kinda feel like Amy is too low-effort to be a wolf. This is a bad read, but it's on my mind.
Boquise You sure Amy/dya is the same alignment? I feel like there's a reasonable chance dya is a wolf and Amy isn't.

I'm also not opposed to voting Kage. His whole thing with the reading of pushes felt like busywork.

[Vulgard]

Idk about Monty, either, after reading his stuff today.

[Renata]

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

I gonna keep harping on this but I don't think that that kind of blatantly obvious hard defense of a town player who other people are reading as scum is about pocketing that player at all. It's about looking reasonable or correct or something when that player dies and flips town. If one of them flips mafia and you immediately start going after the other for this reason alone with no additional justification I'm probably not arguing too hard, because it could be correct (nobody else is actually bound by my beliefs about how they're going play), but I am side-eyeing the hell out of you if you're wrong. Ladd spew or no Ladd spew. Stop insisting on something being certain when it's not. From someone who likes to talk about "nuance" you have none here. Why?

[Renata]

I'm not going to be here but somebody really needs to read Taffy in full. She's disappearing otherwise and that's not good. People are talking about her but nobody is doing real work.

I don't have any solid reads. Hollowkatt, Dyachei, Csargo (in that order) remain bottom of my PoE, but I haven't been able to keep up well and don't feel super informed. I don't remember anything Kage has done that feels solid town. Taffy has, but I liked Ladd's post in a vacuum too. I don't know about Monty at all and am just hoping that future flips might help there.

I did a post on Hollowkatt yesterday that needs looking at to see if it still holds up. I don't know if the obvious irritation over Monty's Boquise-HK pairing is meaningful, but I think the back-off after being called out on it might be. I also didn't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladd's flip, by going through previous posts in strict chronological order. Bias speaking for sure but that felt artificial.

vote: Dyachei like I said, hope to be back before end of day.

[Vulgard]

The more Renata posts, the more I am inclined to hardclear her.

[Csargo]

Kage can be woof for reasons Visor stated I think, my only concern is game volume being too much for them keep up.

[Csargo]

Kage can be woof for reasons Visor stated I think, my only concern is game volume being too much for them to keep up.

:sweatdrop:

[Boquise]

i had a really shit day at work so not super motivated to be around in anything social with people currently. Will try after recollecting myself though, and will do my best to not let it peter into the thread but if theres any snark thats why

[Boquise]

I gonna keep harping on this but I don't think that that kind of blatantly obvious hard defense of a town player who other people are reading as scum is about pocketing that player at all. It's about looking reasonable or correct or something when that player dies and flips town. If one of them flips mafia and you immediately start going after the other for this reason alone with no additional justification I'm probably not arguing too hard, because it could be correct (nobody else is actually bound by my beliefs about how they're going play), but I am side-eyeing the hell out of you if you're wrong. Ladd spew or no Ladd spew. Stop insisting on something being certain when it's not. From someone who likes to talk about "nuance" you have none here. Why?

I agree that that is a scum tactic, but I don't think Dya would use it here on Amy. Tho I think I saw her start walk back the shield a bit earlier today which works with the approach I am thinking of.

The only reason why I keep "insisting" on it, after my initial post where I laid out my thoughts, is because people keep asking me about it. I have not discredited any Amy solo or Dya solo case just because I cannot be sure. I am not trying to stop those reads. But I can still have that thought.

I have seen Dya play it like this and thats why I am not using much nuance on this matter. It has saved me from shame twice to trust their tone reads. I have also a memory of seeing them do this as scum towards a scum mate. But I havent seen them use their famous tone reads to clear a villa when they are scumming.

And it is fine that you would side-eye me. People usually side-eye me when I present the reads I feel sure of because I am acting so confident, then they misyeet me and in post game it is revealed that I was correct all along tbh. You going so hard against this makes me feel like I am correct on this one too and it makes me side-eye you tbh

[Boquise]

I kinda feel like Amy is too low-effort to be a wolf. This is a bad read, but it's on my mind.
Boquise You sure Amy/dya is the same alignment? I feel like there's a reasonable chance dya is a wolf and Amy isn't.

I'm also not opposed to voting Kage. His whole thing with the reading of pushes felt like busywork.

I feel 75% sure rn. It is more interesting how this thought of mine is affecting the thread dynamics tbh. Dya seemed to walk back the shield a bit and that changes things.
Amy can definitely low-effort as scum, or pretend to low-effort but be active in wolf chat.

[Montmorency]

starting to work on ladd now


I was wrong, Visor already called me out on that. It's also tainted cause dolby, so it still would have been wrong anyways.

But I passed it over the first time, and it seems no one other than Visor and Logic had something to say about it, both now being dead. What I'm trying to discern without bias is whether it signals something about mindset, now that the alignments of Visor and Logic are known, as well as that Mafia almost certainly never felt at threat throughout D1 (other than general Pizza anxiety perhaps).

Do you have any thoughts about Taffy?


:sweatdrop:

Sure, hence wildcarding them - and no one has really argued that they can't fit into most teams. If the game course hews to a 'standard' schedule, with no extra deaths, then we have up to five day phases (including today) and 4 night. Assuming doctor fails, the structure of the NK sheet ought to be basically predictable. Not enough time to brute force a likely mafia in Kage-Amp, easily fatal if both are just lurkers. A teammate's deaths will usually offer more info on Kage/Amp than the other way around, by volume of content.

Hence why they should be deprioritized (and Kage-Amp together very rarely, all with dya never).

Relatedly, bad news: I'm going to be completely unavailable at the end of the week, meaning the second half of D5.

[Csargo]

starting to work on ladd now



But I passed it over the first time, and it seems no one other than Visor and Logic had something to say about it, both now being dead. What I'm trying to discern without bias is whether it signals something about mindset, now that the alignments of Visor and Logic are known, as well as that Mafia almost certainly never felt at threat throughout D1 (other than general Pizza anxiety perhaps).

Do you have any thoughts about Taffy?



Sure, hence wildcarding them - and no one has really argued that they can't fit into most teams. If the game course hews to a 'standard' schedule, with no extra deaths, then we have up to five day phases (including today) and 4 night. Assuming doctor fails, the structure of the NK sheet ought to be basically predictable. Not enough time to brute force a likely mafia in Kage-Amp, easily fatal if both are just lurkers. A teammate's deaths will usually offer more info on Kage/Amp than the other way around, by volume of content.

Hence why they should be deprioritized (and Kage-Amp together very rarely, all with dya never).

Relatedly, bad news: I'm going to be completely unavailable at the end of the week, meaning the second half of D5.

I'm pretty sure I used a couple 'think' and 'feels' post in Visor iso of that game, and painted that as uncertainty to prove my point in the argument. I don't think I gain anything for doing it, but read into it what you will.

Taffy can be a woof. I think the treatment of Visor's slot looks less like a townie trying to solve an alignment of a person and more I just don't want to deal with them imo. I can see Visor's perspective, but just feel like it was partially valid.

taffy is a wolf because there is no attitude, just treading water, no push, no sassitude, just posting reasonable sounding thinsg while not moving the game state forward

Felt like the bolded were true yesterday when I was reading Taffy's iso. Think the other stuff was there and makes it just partially accurate.

Kage's spoken about a handful of people, voting hk, calling ladd/Taffy town, and Visor gray from what I remember. I think ladd also offered you/Kage up as people who should have been getting pressured, so idk what to make of it.

[Csargo]

Kage's townreads were a result of Visor question iirc, they weren't just brought up naturally.

[Csargo]

I'm pretty sure I used a couple 'think' and 'feels' post in Visor iso of that game, and painted that as uncertainty to prove my point in the argument. I don't think I gain anything for doing it, but read into it what you will.

Taffy can be a woof. I think the treatment of Visor's slot looks less like a townie trying to solve an alignment of a person and more I just don't want to deal with them imo. I can see Visor's perspective, but just feel like it was partially valid.

Visor quote:
taffy is a wolf because there is no attitude, just treading water, no push, no sassitude, just posting reasonable sounding thinsg while not moving the game state forward

Felt like the bolded were true yesterday when I was reading Taffy's iso. Think the other stuff was there and makes it just partially accurate.

Kage's spoken about a handful of people, voting hk, calling ladd/Taffy town, and Visor gray from what I remember. I think ladd also offered you/Kage up as people who should have been getting pressured, so idk what to make of it.

Kage stuff is also just separate

[hollowkatt]

I'm not going to be here but somebody really needs to read Taffy in full. She's disappearing otherwise and that's not good. People are talking about her but nobody is doing real work.

I don't have any solid reads. Hollowkatt, Dyachei, Csargo (in that order) remain bottom of my PoE, but I haven't been able to keep up well and don't feel super informed. I don't remember anything Kage has done that feels solid town. Taffy has, but I liked Ladd's post in a vacuum too. I don't know about Monty at all and am just hoping that future flips might help there.

I did a post on Hollowkatt yesterday that needs looking at to see if it still holds up. I don't know if the obvious irritation over Monty's Boquise-HK pairing is meaningful, but I think the back-off after being called out on it might be. I also didn't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladd's flip, by going through previous posts in strict chronological order. Bias speaking for sure but that felt artificial.

vote: Dyachei like I said, hope to be back before end of day.

can you tell me how to know the future without knowing the future? thanks in advance (or I guess in the past considering you already knew I was going to say this)

[Csargo]

HK where's your head at currently?

[Montmorency]

I'm at least halfway done with the ladd ISO.

Maybe another hour.


What we can say is that dya is the player that ladd has some of the oddest positions around, and is the one living player he repeatedly hard-defends (where other defenses are more hedgy). IIRC all the people ladd has hard pushed/SRed are dead townies. So it's reasonable to oust dya here.

The ISO does make me feel worse about Boq however.

I think I'll just trust Renata.

Is Amp really the one player ladd SRed that truly is his partner, or was he being consistent and they were all townies? (I also note that in between Vulgard's reveal and the ladd flip is when Boq insisted that dya-Amy always same alignment.)

BTW apologies to Vulgard for not reading parts of his reveal post today more carefully.



Placing my vote on someone I actually think is more close to how they approach games as scum than as town. Dya's protection is there, and I do think that makes Dya and Amy always the same alignment.

wolf!Dya would not protect town!Amy for too long because Amy is an easy misyeet in that case, and I reckon Dya as a wolf would want to cash in protecting Amy eventually.

I do not think town!Dya would misread wolf!Amy.

Hence both are either wolves or town together tbh.

I don't think there is any meta in the world that could allow dya to singlehandedly drive their team to ignore Logic/Visor/Ender MLs, among others. The timeline for Amy ML is just not ripe, so the rejection of m-Dya/t-Amp isn't valid.
Vulgard

[Montmorency]

How cool would it be if Pizza artificially engineered suspicion of Vulgard as a cover for transferring his power all along? Sufficiently fancy?

[Montmorency]

I'm actually surprised Pizza never saw a single scummy post from ladd, when ladd spent a lot of time being passive-aggressive around Pizza and judging players on how they interacted with Pizza. Feels like this specifically breaks one of Pizza's stated rules, including as he himself described them D1.

[Ampharos]

I kinda feel like Amy is too low-effort to be a wolf. This is a bad read, but it's on my mind.
Boquise You sure Amy/dya is the same alignment? I feel like there's a reasonable chance dya is a wolf and Amy isn't.

I'm also not opposed to voting Kage. His whole thing with the reading of pushes felt like busywork.

i'd be low effort here as a wolf too, i promise

[Montmorency]

I fucking love the manageable pace of the thread today. This is what Mafia used to be.

Questions again. Is dyachei ladd's top TR because partner, or because like cape and vulgard they're town? Is - excluding Ender - Amy ladd's top SR because she's a townie like all the rest, or is she the partner thrown in the mix for distancing?

Crucial questions.

One point against dya is that though ladd treats them as a top TR, whenever he discussed them in the context of reads in general he slots them with groups of lighter TRs, not outright stating a top town read like with cape or vulgard.

I'm not certain on dya's status, but dya ouster is +++EV over Amy.

I suspect ladd's partners are people he dumps in vague TL buckets with other players, and/or doesn't interact with directly in the thread.

[Csargo]

I thought Taffy was ladd's top townread?

[Vulgard]

Not being able to attend EoDs gets kind of annoying when you know you'll get people's alignment from them. Happened with Logic and I wasn't around for it to switch my vote. I feel like it might happen with some people this EoD, too.

Well, at any rate, I'm not switching my vote. Glgl, you got this.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (2): Ender, Vulgard
Taffy (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Kage (1): Amy


EOD in 3 hours 10 minutes

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (2): Ender, Vulgard
Taffy (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

[Montmorency]

I suspect ladd's partners are people he dumps in vague TL buckets with other players, and/or doesn't interact with directly in the thread.

What Boq calls "player salad."


I thought Taffy was ladd's top townread?

Almost got it done. Ugh.

Vulgard!

[Csargo]

Dya (2): Ender, Vulgard
Taffy (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

Renata voted Dya Raskolnikov

[Csargo]

I'm not going to be here but somebody really needs to read Taffy in full. She's disappearing otherwise and that's not good. People are talking about her but nobody is doing real work.

I don't have any solid reads. Hollowkatt, Dyachei, Csargo (in that order) remain bottom of my PoE, but I haven't been able to keep up well and don't feel super informed. I don't remember anything Kage has done that feels solid town. Taffy has, but I liked Ladd's post in a vacuum too. I don't know about Monty at all and am just hoping that future flips might help there.

I did a post on Hollowkatt yesterday that needs looking at to see if it still holds up. I don't know if the obvious irritation over Monty's Boquise-HK pairing is meaningful, but I think the back-off after being called out on it might be. I also didn't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladd's flip, by going through previous posts in strict chronological order. Bias speaking for sure but that felt artificial.

vote: Dyachei like I said, hope to be back before end of day.

Here

[Csargo]

Vote:Taffy

[Totally not Taffy]

I thought Taffy was ladd's top townread?

Yes that's what I remember too.


I wanted to reread today but I only got to about page 34 which is pants. Worse news is I no longer believe in my HK/Montmorency solve.

That leaves me looking for three wolves in Ender/Renata/Dyachei/Csargo and I'm not loving any combination I can make there.

But Boquise/Kagemusha/Ampharos all feel too uninvested to be wolves this game. I know I'm projecting but I'd feel more motivated if I had teammates atp.


I still have other tabs open I wanted to reply to but I'm not sure how many are still relevant now.

[Montmorency]

Actually I'm getting unsure about a lot of my observations. I'm checking over the document and having to correct mistakes. Also, it needs a lot of formatting to be legible to y'all.

Any remaining errors are my own.

[EnderWiggin]

[b]Vote: Taffy

[EnderWiggin]

Lmao don't look at that.

Vote: Taffy

[Totally not Taffy]

I hate this site some times. I know it was early early in the game but no search allows me to see more than 100 posts for a player in a thread. halp plx

If you know specific words you used in the post that aren't too common you can use the "search thread" function.



Has Taffy pushed anyone hard in your opinion?

I realise this question wasn't aimed at me, but I'm more likely to push hard when I'm playing with people I know better because my reads are more confident then.



I have no idea whether hk and boq are paired, that's not really what I was pointing out. Out of everything that hk's been accused of this game, that seemed to annoy them.

Also no idea what chainsaw means. If it's that the Renata post is a mess, then yeah. My main point on Renata is that, both EoDs look like someone who's concerned with how they're gonna be viewed in the aftermath of it all. If people don't see that, then I'm most likely wrong and Renata is just town.

A chainsaw defense is when a town votes/makes a case against a wolf and then another wolf votes/makes a case against that town. What I'm saying is that it looked to me like you were casing Renata because you're wolves with HK. It's obviously a weak read and based on preflipping HK, and it's now no longer valid anyway.



Vote: Dyachei

I think this I believe more than Amy.

I kinda like Renata a lot but I am noting things.

Boq is just town.

Monty is not w/w with Dyachei but if Dya is town then Monty is definitely someone I'd sus.

Revision of thoughts to happen in the morning.

I'm now collapsing now that I've done a quick check through all of game thread for Ladd interactions

I probably just missed it Ender but what was that based on?



No more Pizzagesis. I'm interpreting his death as a WOG.

Sirs.

What is a WOG?



yea
amy is my biggest wolf read but I respect Dya's tone reads tbh. There are several examples where they have been correct and I have been wrong. Hence why I have decided that Dya and Amy are always the same alignment tbh


Sorry for coming back to this after others already have, but I, too, don't think this is necessarily valid for the same reason I didn't think Logic's main reason for scumreading Visor made sense - if you are good at reading someone and others in the game know this, you let your wolfmates push them while you yourself make the correct read imo.

[Montmorency]

LADD ASSOCIATIONS

NB: I went beyond what I promised and included some people's interactions toward or about ladd. Highlighted text represents what ladd himself was doing/saying, to prevent confusion arising from my format


AMP

#745: Amy's reads: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

#1161 ladd shooting off reads. Amy is scummy for her posts about Pizza.

#1193: ladd thinks Amy scummy for position on Logic D1, pairs her with Ender, unsure of pairing with Visor.

#1264: Amy's reads post (implicit conditionals on m-Ender): ladd is town and i think my reason for it is kinda stupid. i don't think w!ladd would have any reason to bus w!ender when there are a fair few other suspects with momentum today (e.g. hypothetical v!vulgard, e.g. myself), and in a w!ladd v!ender world i don't think ladd would want to tie my alignment so directly to ender's and risk undermining his wolfread on me when ender flips
"amy surely that isn't the sole thing you're townreading ladd on" idk i think his d1 was a villagery sort of incorrect. i honestly don't think i'm a very good ladd reader, the one other game i've actually played with him he snowed me hard

#1579: From large reads post: amy - refer to my big post+ their wall post feels like a wolf making a huge post to get people off them [...] if [Ender] is a wolf, always kill amy next

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

#2112: i could write a poem about why ender and amy are wolves and wolves together

BOQUISE

First interactions in #430s about posting gifs

#1240: Boq decides to TR ladd and sheep onto Ender because of ladd's posting since #1160, specifically quoting the D1 summary.
also, if amy is a wolf it means i was awesome yesterday tbh

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
boq- has done even less than me eheh. but when he posts i agree with everything he says just dunno if its enough to really move him up

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1767 completing the thought on Boq: boq idk
i am not the best boq reader. he has felt very chill this game and i havent really disagreed with anything he has said
i also think he defended a lot of people i think are villagers so that wins him points too
but clearly none of those things are impossible to fake as a wolf

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1804: Boq asks ladd what info an Ender ouster will offer

#1810: When Ender suggests a Ladd/Visor team: Ladd said he was leaning on Visor wolf tho

#1816: Boq asks ladd to read him and soon realizes ladd did, quoting the post.

#1832: TRs ladd for a post lamenting the non-casual nature of the game.

#1836: Says "Mmmmh" to a ladd post telling Ender that he is his top SR.

#1908: Boq examines ladd's possible motivations as scum, concluding that "I think by occam's razors, ladd is town tbh. It is way more similar to his modus operandi as town than scum tbh."

#1920: Leans list with ladd as lowest town. Ladd unpaired with both Visor and Ender.

CSARGO

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.
#1167: Csargo affirms Renata's answer.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: leaning villa
csargo - similarish to renata but a bit less strong. good thoughts/solving

#1693: Visor @s Csargo for opinion on Taffy and ladd, Csargo responds in #1714.

#1714: I'll look at taffy and ladd again, my impression was they're both town. Feel like the stuff you said about taffy could easily be v stuff to me. Ladd was just feelies, felt good about their posting as they were catching up.

#1827: I think [Visor] more likely to be a woof than Taffy, maybe even ladd as well. [ Csargo did you mean Visor scummier than ladd here?]

DYACHEI

#730s: First interactions. Ladd makes his second appearance of D1 (see commentary) and dyachei immediately asks for ladd's read on themselves. Ladd responds concisely: "You seemed villagery enuf."

#1579: From large reads post: [I]leaning villa
dya - i havent been too hot in reading dya lately but i think the way they are making reads at their own pace and the SNARK everytime anyone dares to shade or wolf read them is >>>rand villa

#1646: Visor asks dya for thoughts on ladd: ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts

#1690s: Asks Visor about his ladd case, doesn't like taffy's pop-in either. In response to Visor's wall-case responding to dya: yeah i think he hasn't spent enough time in the thread for me to get a good read on him

[ALERT: Contradiction!!!]

#1719 ladd defends dya from Visor SR: maybe if it was 2 years ago but their meta changed a ton

#1736: In response to Renata suggesting that Visor and dya commenting on Taffy is partners ginning up a counterwagon to Visor: villagery post (but i disagree on dya, they look villagery in the exchange imo)

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

HOLLOW (HK)

#944: HK asks Pizza why he thinks ladd is clear from killing spooge N1.

#996: if [Ender] a wolf at least one partner is in the Kage/Ladd/Dya bucket

#1161: HK's shade of Pizza is "villagery read for early game."

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
HK - push on pizza d1 was villagery, d2 posting seems fine. keeps going after players who he should know will bite back (pizza,dya) which is rand iyam

#1719 ladd defends HK from Visor SR: did you read the sorcerer game you hosted? i don't think he is posting differently from there (but i concede he may be a wolf)

KAGE

#1152: In his leans post, Kage has ladd as the only member of the "town leaning" bucket, specifically for his original case against Logic. However, he also finds ladd's entry - voting Logic out of nowhere - to be scummy. [???]

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: kage seems >rand wolf by PoE but i got 0 meta on them

#1579: From large reads post: low PoE (null but leaning wolf by PoE)
kage - ngl the formatting made me skip their huge post and the rest of the posts do nothing for me (and push on HK feels weak)

#1639: In response to Visor's case on ladd: Sorry nope bro. Taffy is in the lightside of things in my books from what ive seen so far and so is ladd.

#1713: ladd laughs at an exchange between Visor and Kage

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1771: reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf
kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense
i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

MONTY

#1006: Reads: Ladd & dyachei have rolled mafia in Org games I've - many of us have - played in. I don't remember any meta. Null.

#1161: Monty pushback on Ender looks good while Ender looks bad.

#1164: While shading Ender he ups Ender's read that "For Monty I think the piggyback and the response is broadly a towny response."

#1192: ladd asks about Monty D1 reads (I respond in #1875).

#1553: Dismissing Ender's SR of me: monty is a wolf cause they are low impact? cmn really lol [...] again this feels too level 0

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: monty also seems more villagery than not

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
monty - dunno maybe he should be the tier below but i bought some of his d1 posts (the yolo team guess, the pushback on ender). if ender is a wolf i think he looks ok

#1771: reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf
kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense
i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

#1875: I tell ladd that my D1 pings (Amp-Logic-Ender-Visor plus one secret sauce) were vibes-based. I answer Boq's question to ladd in #1804 with "Lots. Wagonomics. D2 interactions."

#2072: I appeal to dya and ladd to wagon Ender with me SOD3. Ladd's first post of the day, and his last action, is to comply, without acknowledging my post.

RENATA

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.

#1553: Ender criticizes Renata for a post with "Limited town reads, wide scumpool." Ladd's response to this: renata is wolfy cause of too many wolfreads...when thats village indicative if anything ime

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: villagers
renata - never played with them but they post extremely sharp and very direct. not trying to appease at all and notices/pushes things wolves don't imo

#1601: Renata disagrees with ladd about how to think of Pizza's desperado targeting, certitude that it wasn't Ender. In #1604 ladd tells Renata that his reads on Vulgard and Ender are independent of that. Renata in #1609: It sucks because my reads at the time I left last night were the same, but I can?t just ignore the posts that Ender pointed out. I can?t see Pizza being that irresponsible. If he was, fuck that I?m blaming him.

#1736: In response to Renata suggesting that Visor and dya commenting on Taffy is partners ginning up a counterwagon to Visor: villagery post (but i disagree on dya, they look villagery in the exchange imo)

#1745: Defends #1736 to Visor because "it's an hard post to make."

#1769: renata you seems to have more experience with them than me and i have no clue what their wolf range is but if a random player was posting like they are this game i'd easily call them a villager and call it a day

#1775: Renata agrees with #1771 (see Monty/Kage sections).

#1830: Responding to Taffy about #1771: They're both kind of coasting. GTH I go with Monty as wolf over Kage, half because Kage feels so artless in his lack of engagement and half because Visor likes Kage less.

#1977: Renata reads post: Ladd, I don't know. I tend to like their posting when I read it (aside from the initial vote on Logic from day one) and then I get a little distance and don't like it as much. Nothing consolidated, not going to try today.

TAFFY

#907 Taffy's reads wall: Ladd: I thought your post with the quotes from Logic was awful until someone called it a joke. I'm pretty sure you haven't done anything that would let me read you yet.

#1193: ladd's reads: my strongest villa reads are cape/vulgard then pizza/taffy (idk if i mentioned them but i really liked a string of posts they had on..some page. it was v genuine imo)

#1299: Taffy willing to sheep ATPG and Vulgard on positive read of ladd. Also willing to sheep "Montmorencey, Kagemusha, Boquise and Ladd. Given a green check I'd also definitely sheep Ender."

#1579: From large reads post: villagers
taffy - genuinely lack clear for their d2 posting and post 1375 is just never from a wolf

#1606/19: Taffy and ladd discuss desperado OMG I AM DONE FINALLY

#1719 ladd defends taffy from Visor SR: this seems completely opposite to how they seem to be posting afaict they have plenty of attitude/sassiness

#1723: Defending taffy from Visor's vote: and even besides that taffy is the villageriest player itg IMO i can villa case them if needed but they'd be my 1 do not ever kill

#1778: Taffy asks if Renata agrees with #1771 (see Renata/Kage/Monty sections)

#1830: Responding to Taffy about #1771: They're both kind of coasting. GTH I go with Monty as wolf over Kage, half because Kage feels so artless in his lack of engagement and half because Visor likes Kage less.


VULGARD

mEH

ENDER

#730s: Disagrees with Ender's Logic read: "I dont think thats what logic did?"

#977: Reads: Kage/Ladd/Dyachei are the grouping I don't really have a read on properly rn.

#1038: Reads: Csargo is an ehehhh with Dya/ladd/Kage just above.

#1168: Ender scummy for not wanting to fight with Pizza. Just look in the general vicinity of this post for other attacks on Ender by ladd.

.....

#1719: are you clearing ender just cause maybe he got shot?

#1739: Insisting on the Ender case to Visor

#1785: Ladd calling out Visor's posts as wolfy but continuing to vote me is an interesting mood

#1809: Ladd is wolf and I think with Visor based on how neither wants Visir to flip. Or is that prefliopy ego talking? Idk




Commentary (D1): Ladd's first post is #364, hard-suss on "obv wolf" Logic with a vote. Vulgard fills out the page with concerns about this entry. Logic wagon is very dominant now with 4 votes, Visor is pleased, Ladd builds the case and expresses Cape as "one of my few villagers." Vulgard calls this PIS/TMI. Almost all early ladd interactions are with Visor and/or fluff. Amy remarks that she doesn't need to contribute now that ladd is voting with her on Logic. Cape finds ladd's pop-in to be scummy.

Spooge being overpowered in extensive discussion with Vulgard:


You know the drill with Ladd. If Logic is town we kill Ladd. If Logic is mafia the mafia kill Ladd. Either way Ladd is already dead. Long live Ladd.

:ave:

Ladd has almost no thread-presence D1 due to time issues. He returns near EOD to tell us that he now suspects Ender more than Visor, for Pizza-interaction reasons (and votes there). He is essentially starting the Ender wagon from scratch, and speaks out against Logic and Visor wagons with basically neutral or mixed reads.

Amy #745: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

During EOD neither Visor nor Logic find anything to hold against ladd, though spooge votes ladd. Congratulations again to Cape, Vulgard, and Spooge for seeing through him D1 despite minimal thread presence.


Commentary (D2): I deprioritize recording ladd assoc with dead/clear players for D2 at some point.


From the murder choice, I tend to not think it is Ladd.

kappa

Cape #984: Most interested in voting Kage/ladd/Monty

Vulgard #1011: ladd is probably town for his play on d1 being very idgaf yet wagon switching from Logic when I think he could've reasonably stuck there.

[Just an editorial, but I think high-tier mafia often make such switches between townie wagons on D1 because there are no stakes for them, while potentially creating the illusion of stakes, as well as setting up future antispew]

Pizza #1054: Case for why the NK is not ladd's work.

Ladd gets active again from the #1160s onward. He quickly publishes a number of reactions/reads, starting with reaffirmation of his t-Cape read ("villagery reaction to pizza weird early posting") and ending with more ender push. Lot of focus on people's interactions with Pizza.

#1174 ladd approves of Pizza's scumleans (Vulgard/Spooge/Amp/Ender), starts to find Pizza towny. However, also starts to TL Vulgard for Pizza interactions and other.

#1193 ladd summary hard to categorize:


my strongest villa reads are cape/vulgard

then pizza/taffy (idk if i mentioned them but i really liked a string of posts they had on..some page. it was v genuine imo)

then i villa lean a bunch of people but i could easily be wrong on them -csargo/monty/dya/boq/HK

Pizza #1489: Pizza's death-leans have ladd at the bottom.

Ender reads #1506: I want to wolfread them for their treatment of me but I know that's OMGUS so I'm reserving this slot until I have someone else read them for me.

#1579 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/154761-Casual-december-game?p=2053838197&viewfull=1#post2053838197) is ladd's final full reads post. I distribute contents among the sections above.


villagers

ladd - lack clear

taffy - genuinely lack clear for their d2 posting and post 1375 is just never from a wolf

cape - the obvious villager by solving

vulgard - the obvious villager by solving #2+ i am a sucker for some of their more "emotional" posting and i buy it. also my guess for who got shot by pizza

renata - never played with them but they post extremely sharp and very direct. not trying to appease at all and notices/pushes things wolves don't imo

leaning villa

csargo - similarish to renata but a bit less strong. good thoughts/solving

dya - i havent been too hot in reading dya lately but i think the way they are making reads at their own pace and the SNARK everytime anyone dares to shade or wolf read them is >>>rand villa

upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)


boq- has done even less than me eheh. but when he posts i agree with everything he says just dunno if its enough to really move him up


HK - push on pizza d1 was villagery, d2 posting seems fine. keeps going after players who he should know will bite back (pizza,dya) which is rand iyam

monty - dunno maybe he should be the tier below but i bought some of his d1 posts (the yolo team guess, the pushback on ender). if ender is a wolf i think he looks ok


low PoE (null but leaning wolf by PoE)

visor - i mostly read visor by how much he is pondering different scenarios/being paranoid about the direction the game is taking cause ime thats his biggest villa tell. i don't really see it in his d1, kindaaaa see it in his late d2. couple of posts also give me the creeps (post about cape and 1 about monty around mid d2)

kage - ngl the formatting made me skip their huge post and the rest of the posts do nothing for me (and push on HK feels weak)

wolves
ender - refer to my big post
amy - refer to my big post+ their wall post feels like a wolf making a huge post to get people off them



this is where i am at

i still think we should flip ender. if he is not a wolf gimme the desperado tonight, like for real

if he is a wolf, always kill amy next




I want to say Ladd is probably wolf too. Ladd still trying to push me when I was obviously the desperado shot is nagl.

Xposting with ladd's wall of reads is excellent.

In the #1600s Visor cases Ladd, as well as Taffy, dya, and HK. See character logs at the top - interesting that at the same time, Kage and dya - in response to Visor - had the same low-detail TLs on ladd and taffy.

#1719 is a very important ladd post defending taffy/hollow/dya from Visor (I've quoted it previously).

ladd interacts with Visor quite a lot throughout D2, esp. late day, esp. about Ender.


let's say you [Visor] are villager

why not something like ender/amy/kage/(hk/monty/maybeee boq)

i feel like you are either a villager going too down in the rabbit holes and making the game harder on himself or a wolf going for the YOLO. i am leaning the 2nd right now but WHO KNOWS

or it's also possible i am the villager on upside down world but if ender/amy are v/v idek what teams are possible, i think my top villagers +dya are all villagers a lot of the times

ladd D2 scumleans hard to categorize #1756

Cape struggles with his scumlean on ladd throughout the day.

Random observation: ladd interacts most heavily with people he scumreads or is voting, or top thread suspects.

[Montmorency]

Fucking sanity check all my shit.

[EnderWiggin]

I probably just missed it Ender but what was that based on?

Monty/Dya/Ladd formed a trio of "Vote Ender out"

They 90% don't do that as w/w/w

[Csargo]

A chainsaw defense is when a town votes/makes a case against a wolf and then another wolf votes/makes a case against that town. What I'm saying is that it looked to me like you were casing Renata because you're wolves with HK. It's obviously a weak read and based on preflipping HK, and it's now no longer valid anyway.


What if I thought they were both woofs? What would it mean then?

If HK's town then Renata looks bad for no reason, if HK's a woof then Renata's EoD looks performative to me.

I feel the world where Renata has a nebulous woof read on Visor makes more sense now tbh, and their actions reflect that mindset imo.

[Csargo]

LADD ASSOCIATIONS

NB: I went beyond what I promised and included some people's interactions toward or about ladd. Highlighted text represents what ladd himself was doing/saying, to prevent confusion arising from my format


AMP

#745: Amy's reads: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

#1161 ladd shooting off reads. Amy is scummy for her posts about Pizza.

#1193: ladd thinks Amy scummy for position on Logic D1, pairs her with Ender, unsure of pairing with Visor.

#1264: Amy's reads post (implicit conditionals on m-Ender): ladd is town and i think my reason for it is kinda stupid. i don't think w!ladd would have any reason to bus w!ender when there are a fair few other suspects with momentum today (e.g. hypothetical v!vulgard, e.g. myself), and in a w!ladd v!ender world i don't think ladd would want to tie my alignment so directly to ender's and risk undermining his wolfread on me when ender flips
"amy surely that isn't the sole thing you're townreading ladd on" idk i think his d1 was a villagery sort of incorrect. i honestly don't think i'm a very good ladd reader, the one other game i've actually played with him he snowed me hard

#1579: From large reads post: amy - refer to my big post+ their wall post feels like a wolf making a huge post to get people off them [...] if [Ender] is a wolf, always kill amy next

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

#2112: i could write a poem about why ender and amy are wolves and wolves together

BOQUISE

First interactions in #430s about posting gifs

#1240: Boq decides to TR ladd and sheep onto Ender because of ladd's posting since #1160, specifically quoting the D1 summary.
also, if amy is a wolf it means i was awesome yesterday tbh

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
boq- has done even less than me eheh. but when he posts i agree with everything he says just dunno if its enough to really move him up

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1767 completing the thought on Boq: boq idk
i am not the best boq reader. he has felt very chill this game and i havent really disagreed with anything he has said
i also think he defended a lot of people i think are villagers so that wins him points too
but clearly none of those things are impossible to fake as a wolf

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1804: Boq asks ladd what info an Ender ouster will offer

#1810: When Ender suggests a Ladd/Visor team: Ladd said he was leaning on Visor wolf tho

#1816: Boq asks ladd to read him and soon realizes ladd did, quoting the post.

#1832: TRs ladd for a post lamenting the non-casual nature of the game.

#1836: Says "Mmmmh" to a ladd post telling Ender that he is his top SR.

#1908: Boq examines ladd's possible motivations as scum, concluding that "I think by occam's razors, ladd is town tbh. It is way more similar to his modus operandi as town than scum tbh."

#1920: Leans list with ladd as lowest town. Ladd unpaired with both Visor and Ender.

CSARGO

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.
#1167: Csargo affirms Renata's answer.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: leaning villa
csargo - similarish to renata but a bit less strong. good thoughts/solving

#1693: Visor @s Csargo for opinion on Taffy and ladd, Csargo responds in #1714.

#1714: I'll look at taffy and ladd again, my impression was they're both town. Feel like the stuff you said about taffy could easily be v stuff to me. Ladd was just feelies, felt good about their posting as they were catching up.

#1827: I think [Visor] more likely to be a woof than Taffy, maybe even ladd as well. [ Csargo did you mean Visor scummier than ladd here?]


Yeah, I thought it was possible. I had a lot of problems with Visor's play and talked about them in one of the posts responding to Visor.

[Montmorency]

WOG is Wrath of God i.e. modkill. Used to happen in almost every game due to inactivity.

[Montmorency]

Best I can do is 90% confidence that final team is within Boq/Csargo/Dya/Kage/Taffy.

Would usually vote dya or taffy today.

[Raskolnikov]

Taffy (3): Monty, Csargo, Ender
Dya (2): Vulgard, Renata
Monty(1): HK
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

EOD in 1 hour 50 minutes

[Renata]

Dyachei-Ladd interaction is very weak from both sides. (Meaning weak in terms of actual reads, not just lack of content.) Plus the contradiction pointed bout by Monty where Dyachei first townreads Ladd then later says they don't have a read on him. I think they're just a wolf.

Plus the thing from my perspective where Ladd points out Dyachei's random pushes on me and Holllowkatt (one wolf one villager? please?) look like their towny meta and I agree, they would. If they weren't so weak, and if Dyachei didn't push me only *after* I pointed out that they normally do.

If there's enough time I'll look at Taffy after I eat.

[Totally not Taffy]

Fucking sanity check all my shit.

I think Ladd is a very capable wolf so spewreading might not work well, but ok.

Ampharos: I think if Ladd was bussing/distancing from Ender it's unlikely Ampharos is also a wolf. Esp combined with #1174

Boq: I cannot make any conclusions here

Csargo: short, not sure that's indicative one way or another

Dyachei: yes you're right about the contradiction

HK: in hindsight, that was an insightful question about the N1, and maybe you wouldn't undermine a teammate like this when a town townreads them?

Kagemusha: #1771 maybe now w/w with Ender?

Monty: Ender's right in his reasoning for uncoupling you from Dyachei

Renata: I cannot make any conclusions here

Ender: #1506 looks bad, if you're misclearing someone it's Ender

[Renata]

Oh also, that stuff looks really good for Amy IMO.

[Totally not Taffy]

Asks is going to have to forgive me for creating a tie as town again ~:)

Vote: Dyachei

[hollowkatt]

HK where's your head at currently?

you, boq, ender all seem to have your heads on straight. Dya I think is a wolf. Amy I think is non-existent and even if they are wolfing aren't making FX but I don't think they are (except for a secret read for now).

This post bothers the fuck out of me:

I'm not going to be here but somebody really needs to read Taffy in full. She's disappearing otherwise and that's not good. People are talking about her but nobody is doing real work.

I don't have any solid reads. Hollowkatt, Dyachei, Csargo (in that order) remain bottom of my PoE, but I haven't been able to keep up well and don't feel super informed. I don't remember anything Kage has done that feels solid town. Taffy has, but I liked Ladd's post in a vacuum too. I don't know about Monty at all and am just hoping that future flips might help there.

I did a post on Hollowkatt yesterday that needs looking at to see if it still holds up. I don't know if the obvious irritation over Monty's Boquise-HK pairing is meaningful, but I think the back-off after being called out on it might be. I also didn't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladd's flip, by going through previous posts in strict chronological order. Bias speaking for sure but that felt artificial.

vote: Dyachei like I said, hope to be back before end of day.

Yes they "acknowledge" bias but saying out loud "I don't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladds flip" is batshit insane to me like how does Renata expect me to know things until I get there? Maybe it's dumb but that's an incredibly reachy take to have and one I don't see coming from town at all. They can get in the death bucket.

everyone else is some flavor of meh. chalk it up to recency bias if you want to but kill em all and let mod sort them out.

[hollowkatt]

you, boq, ender all seem to have your heads on straight. Dya I think is a wolf. Amy I think is non-existent and even if they are wolfing aren't making FX but I don't think they are (except for a secret read for now).

This post bothers the fuck out of me:


Yes they "acknowledge" bias but saying out loud "I don't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladds flip" is batshit insane to me like how does Renata expect me to know things until I get there? Maybe it's dumb but that's an incredibly reachy take to have and one I don't see coming from town at all. They can get in the death bucket.

everyone else is some flavor of meh. chalk it up to recency bias if you want to but kill em all and let mod sort them out.

also I don't think monty is a wolf any more and I'm contemplating whether or not renata on dya is a bus or wolf v town.

I do think we desperately need a flip in the renata/dya/amy/kaga bucket though/

[Renata]

I think Ladd is a very capable wolf so spewreading might not work well, but ok.

Ampharos: I think if Ladd was bussing/distancing from Ender it's unlikely Ampharos is also a wolf. Esp combined with #1174

Boq: I cannot make any conclusions here

Csargo: short, not sure that's indicative one way or another

Dyachei: yes you're right about the contradiction

HK: in hindsight, that was an insightful question about the N1, and maybe you wouldn't undermine a teammate like this when a town townreads them?

Kagemusha: #1771 maybe now w/w with Ender?

Monty: Ender's right in his reasoning for uncoupling you from Dyachei

Renata: I cannot make any conclusions here

Ender: #1506 looks bad, if you're misclearing someone it's Ender

Bolded: I had to read fast trying to do dinner here. I don't know what Ladd had to do with that and I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.

[Renata]

you, boq, ender all seem to have your heads on straight. Dya I think is a wolf. Amy I think is non-existent and even if they are wolfing aren't making FX but I don't think they are (except for a secret read for now).

This post bothers the fuck out of me:


Yes they "acknowledge" bias but saying out loud "I don't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladds flip" is batshit insane to me like how does Renata expect me to know things until I get there? Maybe it's dumb but that's an incredibly reachy take to have and one I don't see coming from town at all. They can get in the death bucket.

everyone else is some flavor of meh. chalk it up to recency bias if you want to but kill em all and let mod sort them out.

"Get in the death bucket" might be the most towny thing I've seen you say. It's real though. I read your posts and saw you got to Ladd's death only after responding to other things, then say something like "oh wow well lookie at that" and that's always going to read sus to me. Fake surprise. Like, you had seen Vulgard's posts at that point. Most people would scroll ahead to see who got got (if anyone) before continuing with commentary that might be irrelevant.

[Totally not Taffy]

Bolded: I had to read fast trying to do dinner here. I don't know what Ladd had to do with that and I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.

The entire post is a response to Monty's wallpost with all people's Ladd-related interactions. HK questioned Asks when Asks miscleared Ladd based on Spooge being the N1. So my point is it's unlikely that HK is a wolf because that would be a weird and unnecessary thing to do to your partner.

[Boquise]

Sorry for coming back to this after others already have, but I, too, don't think this is necessarily valid for the same reason I didn't think Logic's main reason for scumreading Visor made sense - if you are good at reading someone and others in the game know this, you let your wolfmates push them while you yourself make the correct read imo.

well, at this point it seems like a waste of time to discuss. You, monty and renata say that it is not valid. We will see who is right at post game on this matter tbh.

[Boquise]

LADD ASSOCIATIONS

NB: I went beyond what I promised and included some people's interactions toward or about ladd. Highlighted text represents what ladd himself was doing/saying, to prevent confusion arising from my format


AMP

#745: Amy's reads: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

#1161 ladd shooting off reads. Amy is scummy for her posts about Pizza.

#1193: ladd thinks Amy scummy for position on Logic D1, pairs her with Ender, unsure of pairing with Visor.

#1264: Amy's reads post (implicit conditionals on m-Ender): ladd is town and i think my reason for it is kinda stupid. i don't think w!ladd would have any reason to bus w!ender when there are a fair few other suspects with momentum today (e.g. hypothetical v!vulgard, e.g. myself), and in a w!ladd v!ender world i don't think ladd would want to tie my alignment so directly to ender's and risk undermining his wolfread on me when ender flips
"amy surely that isn't the sole thing you're townreading ladd on" idk i think his d1 was a villagery sort of incorrect. i honestly don't think i'm a very good ladd reader, the one other game i've actually played with him he snowed me hard

#1579: From large reads post: amy - refer to my big post+ their wall post feels like a wolf making a huge post to get people off them [...] if [Ender] is a wolf, always kill amy next

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

#2112: i could write a poem about why ender and amy are wolves and wolves together

BOQUISE

First interactions in #430s about posting gifs

#1240: Boq decides to TR ladd and sheep onto Ender because of ladd's posting since #1160, specifically quoting the D1 summary.
also, if amy is a wolf it means i was awesome yesterday tbh

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
boq- has done even less than me eheh. but when he posts i agree with everything he says just dunno if its enough to really move him up

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1767 completing the thought on Boq: boq idk
i am not the best boq reader. he has felt very chill this game and i havent really disagreed with anything he has said
i also think he defended a lot of people i think are villagers so that wins him points too
but clearly none of those things are impossible to fake as a wolf

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1804: Boq asks ladd what info an Ender ouster will offer

#1810: When Ender suggests a Ladd/Visor team: Ladd said he was leaning on Visor wolf tho

#1816: Boq asks ladd to read him and soon realizes ladd did, quoting the post.

#1832: TRs ladd for a post lamenting the non-casual nature of the game.

#1836: Says "Mmmmh" to a ladd post telling Ender that he is his top SR.

#1908: Boq examines ladd's possible motivations as scum, concluding that "I think by occam's razors, ladd is town tbh. It is way more similar to his modus operandi as town than scum tbh."

#1920: Leans list with ladd as lowest town. Ladd unpaired with both Visor and Ender.

CSARGO

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.
#1167: Csargo affirms Renata's answer.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: leaning villa
csargo - similarish to renata but a bit less strong. good thoughts/solving

#1693: Visor @s Csargo for opinion on Taffy and ladd, Csargo responds in #1714.

#1714: I'll look at taffy and ladd again, my impression was they're both town. Feel like the stuff you said about taffy could easily be v stuff to me. Ladd was just feelies, felt good about their posting as they were catching up.

#1827: I think [Visor] more likely to be a woof than Taffy, maybe even ladd as well. [ Csargo did you mean Visor scummier than ladd here?]

DYACHEI

#730s: First interactions. Ladd makes his second appearance of D1 (see commentary) and dyachei immediately asks for ladd's read on themselves. Ladd responds concisely: "You seemed villagery enuf."

#1579: From large reads post: [I]leaning villa
dya - i havent been too hot in reading dya lately but i think the way they are making reads at their own pace and the SNARK everytime anyone dares to shade or wolf read them is >>>rand villa

#1646: Visor asks dya for thoughts on ladd: ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts

#1690s: Asks Visor about his ladd case, doesn't like taffy's pop-in either. In response to Visor's wall-case responding to dya: yeah i think he hasn't spent enough time in the thread for me to get a good read on him

[ALERT: Contradiction!!!]

#1719 ladd defends dya from Visor SR: maybe if it was 2 years ago but their meta changed a ton

#1736: In response to Renata suggesting that Visor and dya commenting on Taffy is partners ginning up a counterwagon to Visor: villagery post (but i disagree on dya, they look villagery in the exchange imo)

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

HOLLOW (HK)

#944: HK asks Pizza why he thinks ladd is clear from killing spooge N1.

#996: if [Ender] a wolf at least one partner is in the Kage/Ladd/Dya bucket

#1161: HK's shade of Pizza is "villagery read for early game."

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
HK - push on pizza d1 was villagery, d2 posting seems fine. keeps going after players who he should know will bite back (pizza,dya) which is rand iyam

#1719 ladd defends HK from Visor SR: did you read the sorcerer game you hosted? i don't think he is posting differently from there (but i concede he may be a wolf)

KAGE

#1152: In his leans post, Kage has ladd as the only member of the "town leaning" bucket, specifically for his original case against Logic. However, he also finds ladd's entry - voting Logic out of nowhere - to be scummy. [???]

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: kage seems >rand wolf by PoE but i got 0 meta on them

#1579: From large reads post: low PoE (null but leaning wolf by PoE)
kage - ngl the formatting made me skip their huge post and the rest of the posts do nothing for me (and push on HK feels weak)

#1639: In response to Visor's case on ladd: Sorry nope bro. Taffy is in the lightside of things in my books from what ive seen so far and so is ladd.

#1713: ladd laughs at an exchange between Visor and Kage

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1771: reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf
kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense
i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

MONTY

#1006: Reads: Ladd & dyachei have rolled mafia in Org games I've - many of us have - played in. I don't remember any meta. Null.

#1161: Monty pushback on Ender looks good while Ender looks bad.

#1164: While shading Ender he ups Ender's read that "For Monty I think the piggyback and the response is broadly a towny response."

#1192: ladd asks about Monty D1 reads (I respond in #1875).

#1553: Dismissing Ender's SR of me: monty is a wolf cause they are low impact? cmn really lol [...] again this feels too level 0

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: monty also seems more villagery than not

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
monty - dunno maybe he should be the tier below but i bought some of his d1 posts (the yolo team guess, the pushback on ender). if ender is a wolf i think he looks ok

#1771: reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf
kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense
i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

#1875: I tell ladd that my D1 pings (Amp-Logic-Ender-Visor plus one secret sauce) were vibes-based. I answer Boq's question to ladd in #1804 with "Lots. Wagonomics. D2 interactions."

#2072: I appeal to dya and ladd to wagon Ender with me SOD3. Ladd's first post of the day, and his last action, is to comply, without acknowledging my post.

RENATA

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.

#1553: Ender criticizes Renata for a post with "Limited town reads, wide scumpool." Ladd's response to this: renata is wolfy cause of too many wolfreads...when thats village indicative if anything ime

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: villagers
renata - never played with them but they post extremely sharp and very direct. not trying to appease at all and notices/pushes things wolves don't imo

#1601: Renata disagrees with ladd about how to think of Pizza's desperado targeting, certitude that it wasn't Ender. In #1604 ladd tells Renata that his reads on Vulgard and Ender are independent of that. Renata in #1609: It sucks because my reads at the time I left last night were the same, but I can?t just ignore the posts that Ender pointed out. I can?t see Pizza being that irresponsible. If he was, fuck that I?m blaming him.

#1736: In response to Renata suggesting that Visor and dya commenting on Taffy is partners ginning up a counterwagon to Visor: villagery post (but i disagree on dya, they look villagery in the exchange imo)

#1745: Defends #1736 to Visor because "it's an hard post to make."

#1769: renata you seems to have more experience with them than me and i have no clue what their wolf range is but if a random player was posting like they are this game i'd easily call them a villager and call it a day

#1775: Renata agrees with #1771 (see Monty/Kage sections).

#1830: Responding to Taffy about #1771: They're both kind of coasting. GTH I go with Monty as wolf over Kage, half because Kage feels so artless in his lack of engagement and half because Visor likes Kage less.

#1977: Renata reads post: Ladd, I don't know. I tend to like their posting when I read it (aside from the initial vote on Logic from day one) and then I get a little distance and don't like it as much. Nothing consolidated, not going to try today.

TAFFY

#907 Taffy's reads wall: Ladd: I thought your post with the quotes from Logic was awful until someone called it a joke. I'm pretty sure you haven't done anything that would let me read you yet.

#1193: ladd's reads: my strongest villa reads are cape/vulgard then pizza/taffy (idk if i mentioned them but i really liked a string of posts they had on..some page. it was v genuine imo)

#1299: Taffy willing to sheep ATPG and Vulgard on positive read of ladd. Also willing to sheep "Montmorencey, Kagemusha, Boquise and Ladd. Given a green check I'd also definitely sheep Ender."

#1579: From large reads post: villagers
taffy - genuinely lack clear for their d2 posting and post 1375 is just never from a wolf

#1606/19: Taffy and ladd discuss desperado OMG I AM DONE FINALLY

#1719 ladd defends taffy from Visor SR: this seems completely opposite to how they seem to be posting afaict they have plenty of attitude/sassiness

#1723: Defending taffy from Visor's vote: and even besides that taffy is the villageriest player itg IMO i can villa case them if needed but they'd be my 1 do not ever kill

#1778: Taffy asks if Renata agrees with #1771 (see Renata/Kage/Monty sections)

#1830: Responding to Taffy about #1771: They're both kind of coasting. GTH I go with Monty as wolf over Kage, half because Kage feels so artless in his lack of engagement and half because Visor likes Kage less.


VULGARD

mEH

ENDER

#730s: Disagrees with Ender's Logic read: "I dont think thats what logic did?"

#977: Reads: Kage/Ladd/Dyachei are the grouping I don't really have a read on properly rn.

#1038: Reads: Csargo is an ehehhh with Dya/ladd/Kage just above.

#1168: Ender scummy for not wanting to fight with Pizza. Just look in the general vicinity of this post for other attacks on Ender by ladd.

.....

#1719: are you clearing ender just cause maybe he got shot?

#1739: Insisting on the Ender case to Visor

#1785: Ladd calling out Visor's posts as wolfy but continuing to vote me is an interesting mood

#1809: Ladd is wolf and I think with Visor based on how neither wants Visir to flip. Or is that prefliopy ego talking? Idk




Commentary (D1): Ladd's first post is #364, hard-suss on "obv wolf" Logic with a vote. Vulgard fills out the page with concerns about this entry. Logic wagon is very dominant now with 4 votes, Visor is pleased, Ladd builds the case and expresses Cape as "one of my few villagers." Vulgard calls this PIS/TMI. Almost all early ladd interactions are with Visor and/or fluff. Amy remarks that she doesn't need to contribute now that ladd is voting with her on Logic. Cape finds ladd's pop-in to be scummy.

Spooge being overpowered in extensive discussion with Vulgard:



:ave:

Ladd has almost no thread-presence D1 due to time issues. He returns near EOD to tell us that he now suspects Ender more than Visor, for Pizza-interaction reasons (and votes there). He is essentially starting the Ender wagon from scratch, and speaks out against Logic and Visor wagons with basically neutral or mixed reads.

Amy #745: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

During EOD neither Visor nor Logic find anything to hold against ladd, though spooge votes ladd. Congratulations again to Cape, Vulgard, and Spooge for seeing through him D1 despite minimal thread presence.


Commentary (D2): I deprioritize recording ladd assoc with dead/clear players for D2 at some point.



kappa

Cape #984: Most interested in voting Kage/ladd/Monty

Vulgard #1011: ladd is probably town for his play on d1 being very idgaf yet wagon switching from Logic when I think he could've reasonably stuck there.

[Just an editorial, but I think high-tier mafia often make such switches between townie wagons on D1 because there are no stakes for them, while potentially creating the illusion of stakes, as well as setting up future antispew]

Pizza #1054: Case for why the NK is not ladd's work.

Ladd gets active again from the #1160s onward. He quickly publishes a number of reactions/reads, starting with reaffirmation of his t-Cape read ("villagery reaction to pizza weird early posting") and ending with more ender push. Lot of focus on people's interactions with Pizza.

#1174 ladd approves of Pizza's scumleans (Vulgard/Spooge/Amp/Ender), starts to find Pizza towny. However, also starts to TL Vulgard for Pizza interactions and other.

#1193 ladd summary hard to categorize:



Pizza #1489: Pizza's death-leans have ladd at the bottom.

Ender reads #1506: I want to wolfread them for their treatment of me but I know that's OMGUS so I'm reserving this slot until I have someone else read them for me.

#1579 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/154761-Casual-december-game?p=2053838197&viewfull=1#post2053838197) is ladd's final full reads post. I distribute contents among the sections above.







Xposting with ladd's wall of reads is excellent.

In the #1600s Visor cases Ladd, as well as Taffy, dya, and HK. See character logs at the top - interesting that at the same time, Kage and dya - in response to Visor - had the same low-detail TLs on ladd and taffy.

#1719 is a very important ladd post defending taffy/hollow/dya from Visor (I've quoted it previously).

ladd interacts with Visor quite a lot throughout D2, esp. late day, esp. about Ender.



ladd D2 scumleans hard to categorize #1756

Cape struggles with his scumlean on ladd throughout the day.

Random observation: ladd interacts most heavily with people he scumreads or is voting, or top thread suspects.

i skimmed the parts of me because i am egoistical tbh and the parts ladd said about kage makes me think kage is unpaired with him. Which makes me go hmm more at Amy trying to start a wagon on Kage tbh

[Totally not Taffy]

also I don't think monty is a wolf any more and I'm contemplating whether or not renata on dya is a bus or wolf v town.

I do think we desperately need a flip in the renata/dya/amy/kaga bucket though/

You started the day off voting Dyachei. Have they improved on you, or are you mostly focusing on Renata now because of her case on you?

[hollowkatt]

I'm actually surprised Pizza never saw a single scummy post from ladd, when ladd spent a lot of time being passive-aggressive around Pizza and judging players on how they interacted with Pizza. Feels like this specifically breaks one of Pizza's stated rules, including as he himself described them D1.

feels like this is a post game post in the middle of the game.. kinda wanna town read monty for it

[Montmorency]

If we're going purely by least interactions with ladd, or least detailed reads by ladd, that could be Csargo-HK-Kage. But that seems wack somehow.

Both dya and boq have individual equity with ladd; one can easily discern a plan in execution by setting ladd's activity alongside either of them. Dya + ladd would e.g. obviously be reinforcing sequential Ender>Amy MLs. Boq, basically backing ladd up but while giving a few mixed messages on alignment read to distance.

I think ladd was basically just power scumming from the beginning and never strongly SRed any partners, but also kept most, if not all, of his partners in the player salad (i.e. no more than one partner among strong townreads). I perceive that ladd reserved his most detailed reads and deepest interactions for townies he was killing (e.g. Cape, Logic, Ender, Visor).

So Boq/Csargo/Dya/Kage/Taffy still seems best, with strongest impressions on Boq and Dya individually. Let's see what EOD brings.


Ender: #1506 looks bad, if you're misclearing someone it's Ender

No.

[hollowkatt]

You started the day off voting Dyachei. Have they improved on you, or are you mostly focusing on Renata now because of her case on you?

mostly that comment was drawing attention to renata voting dya and wondering this outloud: if renata IS a wolf what does that do for my dya read?

If renata is town my dya read is basically unchanged, wolf. If renata is a wolf I have to decide if this is a bus or if dya is town and renata is looking for a mischop. I do think there's tangential relationships between renata, dya, and amy but I'm not sure yet what that means.

[hollowkatt]

I fucking love the manageable pace of the thread today. This is what Mafia used to be.

Questions again. Is dyachei ladd's top TR because partner, or because like cape and vulgard they're town? Is - excluding Ender - Amy ladd's top SR because she's a townie like all the rest, or is she the partner thrown in the mix for distancing?

Crucial questions.

One point against dya is that though ladd treats them as a top TR, whenever he discussed them in the context of reads in general he slots them with groups of lighter TRs, not outright stating a top town read like with cape or vulgard.

I'm not certain on dya's status, but dya ouster is +++EV over Amy.

I suspect ladd's partners are people he dumps in vague TL buckets with other players, and/or doesn't interact with directly in the thread.

I think it depends entirely on how Ladd interacted with them, yeah? Like ok if it's just reads list it probably doesn't mean a thing. if it's continual engagement while calling them top town and reminding others of the top town read then yeah, it's meaningful and not in a positive way.

Like it's super easy to talk about your partners in all directions, more so than it is for people you're not partnered with.

[hollowkatt]

vote: dya

no idea on taffy tbh

[hollowkatt]

Yes that's what I remember too.


I wanted to reread today but I only got to about page 34 which is pants. Worse news is I no longer believe in my HK/Montmorency solve.

That leaves me looking for three wolves in Ender/Renata/Dyachei/Csargo and I'm not loving any combination I can make there.

But Boquise/Kagemusha/Ampharos all feel too uninvested to be wolves this game. I know I'm projecting but I'd feel more motivated if I had teammates atp.


I still have other tabs open I wanted to reply to but I'm not sure how many are still relevant now.

I'm hard on ender = town now. Does removing him from the pile of renata/dya/csargo change things for you?

[Montmorency]

This is practically OGI, but looking at dya's contradiction-posts on ladd again


#1646: Visor asks dya for thoughts on ladd: ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts

If dya and taffy share a scumchat, would dya be referring to taffy as "he" in-thread D2? :shrug:

[hollowkatt]

LADD ASSOCIATIONS

NB: I went beyond what I promised and included some people's interactions toward or about ladd. Highlighted text represents what ladd himself was doing/saying, to prevent confusion arising from my format


AMP

#745: Amy's reads: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

#1161 ladd shooting off reads. Amy is scummy for her posts about Pizza.

#1193: ladd thinks Amy scummy for position on Logic D1, pairs her with Ender, unsure of pairing with Visor.

#1264: Amy's reads post (implicit conditionals on m-Ender): ladd is town and i think my reason for it is kinda stupid. i don't think w!ladd would have any reason to bus w!ender when there are a fair few other suspects with momentum today (e.g. hypothetical v!vulgard, e.g. myself), and in a w!ladd v!ender world i don't think ladd would want to tie my alignment so directly to ender's and risk undermining his wolfread on me when ender flips
"amy surely that isn't the sole thing you're townreading ladd on" idk i think his d1 was a villagery sort of incorrect. i honestly don't think i'm a very good ladd reader, the one other game i've actually played with him he snowed me hard

#1579: From large reads post: amy - refer to my big post+ their wall post feels like a wolf making a huge post to get people off them [...] if [Ender] is a wolf, always kill amy next

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

#2112: i could write a poem about why ender and amy are wolves and wolves together

BOQUISE

First interactions in #430s about posting gifs

#1240: Boq decides to TR ladd and sheep onto Ender because of ladd's posting since #1160, specifically quoting the D1 summary.
also, if amy is a wolf it means i was awesome yesterday tbh

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
boq- has done even less than me eheh. but when he posts i agree with everything he says just dunno if its enough to really move him up

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1767 completing the thought on Boq: boq idk
i am not the best boq reader. he has felt very chill this game and i havent really disagreed with anything he has said
i also think he defended a lot of people i think are villagers so that wins him points too
but clearly none of those things are impossible to fake as a wolf

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1804: Boq asks ladd what info an Ender ouster will offer

#1810: When Ender suggests a Ladd/Visor team: Ladd said he was leaning on Visor wolf tho

#1816: Boq asks ladd to read him and soon realizes ladd did, quoting the post.

#1832: TRs ladd for a post lamenting the non-casual nature of the game.

#1836: Says "Mmmmh" to a ladd post telling Ender that he is his top SR.

#1908: Boq examines ladd's possible motivations as scum, concluding that "I think by occam's razors, ladd is town tbh. It is way more similar to his modus operandi as town than scum tbh."

#1920: Leans list with ladd as lowest town. Ladd unpaired with both Visor and Ender.

CSARGO

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.
#1167: Csargo affirms Renata's answer.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: leaning villa
csargo - similarish to renata but a bit less strong. good thoughts/solving

#1693: Visor @s Csargo for opinion on Taffy and ladd, Csargo responds in #1714.

#1714: I'll look at taffy and ladd again, my impression was they're both town. Feel like the stuff you said about taffy could easily be v stuff to me. Ladd was just feelies, felt good about their posting as they were catching up.

#1827: I think [Visor] more likely to be a woof than Taffy, maybe even ladd as well. [ Csargo did you mean Visor scummier than ladd here?]

DYACHEI

#730s: First interactions. Ladd makes his second appearance of D1 (see commentary) and dyachei immediately asks for ladd's read on themselves. Ladd responds concisely: "You seemed villagery enuf."

#1579: From large reads post: [I]leaning villa
dya - i havent been too hot in reading dya lately but i think the way they are making reads at their own pace and the SNARK everytime anyone dares to shade or wolf read them is >>>rand villa

#1646: Visor asks dya for thoughts on ladd: ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts

#1690s: Asks Visor about his ladd case, doesn't like taffy's pop-in either. In response to Visor's wall-case responding to dya: yeah i think he hasn't spent enough time in the thread for me to get a good read on him

[ALERT: Contradiction!!!]

#1719 ladd defends dya from Visor SR: maybe if it was 2 years ago but their meta changed a ton

#1736: In response to Renata suggesting that Visor and dya commenting on Taffy is partners ginning up a counterwagon to Visor: villagery post (but i disagree on dya, they look villagery in the exchange imo)

#1764: In humoring Visor's requesst to talk about something other than Visor/Ender: lettuce talk super briefly (cause i gotta go and i am already late lol) about dya and boq
imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

#1769: for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

HOLLOW (HK)

#944: HK asks Pizza why he thinks ladd is clear from killing spooge N1.

#996: if [Ender] a wolf at least one partner is in the Kage/Ladd/Dya bucket

#1161: HK's shade of Pizza is "villagery read for early game."

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
HK - push on pizza d1 was villagery, d2 posting seems fine. keeps going after players who he should know will bite back (pizza,dya) which is rand iyam

#1719 ladd defends HK from Visor SR: did you read the sorcerer game you hosted? i don't think he is posting differently from there (but i concede he may be a wolf)

KAGE

#1152: In his leans post, Kage has ladd as the only member of the "town leaning" bucket, specifically for his original case against Logic. However, he also finds ladd's entry - voting Logic out of nowhere - to be scummy. [???]

#1555: Ladd says "i can see this [...] kage also kinda fits with literally any team" in response to Boq finding one of Kage's posts scummy.

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: kage seems >rand wolf by PoE but i got 0 meta on them

#1579: From large reads post: low PoE (null but leaning wolf by PoE)
kage - ngl the formatting made me skip their huge post and the rest of the posts do nothing for me (and push on HK feels weak)

#1639: In response to Visor's case on ladd: Sorry nope bro. Taffy is in the lightside of things in my books from what ive seen so far and so is ladd.

#1713: ladd laughs at an exchange between Visor and Kage

#1769: kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

#1771: reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf
kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense
i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

MONTY

#1006: Reads: Ladd & dyachei have rolled mafia in Org games I've - many of us have - played in. I don't remember any meta. Null.

#1161: Monty pushback on Ender looks good while Ender looks bad.

#1164: While shading Ender he ups Ender's read that "For Monty I think the piggyback and the response is broadly a towny response."

#1192: ladd asks about Monty D1 reads (I respond in #1875).

#1553: Dismissing Ender's SR of me: monty is a wolf cause they are low impact? cmn really lol [...] again this feels too level 0

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: monty also seems more villagery than not

#1579: From large reads post: upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)
monty - dunno maybe he should be the tier below but i bought some of his d1 posts (the yolo team guess, the pushback on ender). if ender is a wolf i think he looks ok

#1771: reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf
kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense
i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

#1875: I tell ladd that my D1 pings (Amp-Logic-Ender-Visor plus one secret sauce) were vibes-based. I answer Boq's question to ladd in #1804 with "Lots. Wagonomics. D2 interactions."

#2072: I appeal to dya and ladd to wagon Ender with me SOD3. Ladd's first post of the day, and his last action, is to comply, without acknowledging my post.

RENATA

#1166: Renata tells ladd how to clear multiquotes.

#1553: Ender criticizes Renata for a post with "Limited town reads, wide scumpool." Ladd's response to this: renata is wolfy cause of too many wolfreads...when thats village indicative if anything ime

#1561: Ladd as part of reads post, asking Visor about Orgahs: renata/csargo both seem v villagery

#1579: From large reads post: villagers
renata - never played with them but they post extremely sharp and very direct. not trying to appease at all and notices/pushes things wolves don't imo

#1601: Renata disagrees with ladd about how to think of Pizza's desperado targeting, certitude that it wasn't Ender. In #1604 ladd tells Renata that his reads on Vulgard and Ender are independent of that. Renata in #1609: It sucks because my reads at the time I left last night were the same, but I can?t just ignore the posts that Ender pointed out. I can?t see Pizza being that irresponsible. If he was, fuck that I?m blaming him.

#1736: In response to Renata suggesting that Visor and dya commenting on Taffy is partners ginning up a counterwagon to Visor: villagery post (but i disagree on dya, they look villagery in the exchange imo)

#1745: Defends #1736 to Visor because "it's an hard post to make."

#1769: renata you seems to have more experience with them than me and i have no clue what their wolf range is but if a random player was posting like they are this game i'd easily call them a villager and call it a day

#1775: Renata agrees with #1771 (see Monty/Kage sections).

#1830: Responding to Taffy about #1771: They're both kind of coasting. GTH I go with Monty as wolf over Kage, half because Kage feels so artless in his lack of engagement and half because Visor likes Kage less.

#1977: Renata reads post: Ladd, I don't know. I tend to like their posting when I read it (aside from the initial vote on Logic from day one) and then I get a little distance and don't like it as much. Nothing consolidated, not going to try today.

TAFFY

#907 Taffy's reads wall: Ladd: I thought your post with the quotes from Logic was awful until someone called it a joke. I'm pretty sure you haven't done anything that would let me read you yet.

#1193: ladd's reads: my strongest villa reads are cape/vulgard then pizza/taffy (idk if i mentioned them but i really liked a string of posts they had on..some page. it was v genuine imo)

#1299: Taffy willing to sheep ATPG and Vulgard on positive read of ladd. Also willing to sheep "Montmorencey, Kagemusha, Boquise and Ladd. Given a green check I'd also definitely sheep Ender."

#1579: From large reads post: villagers
taffy - genuinely lack clear for their d2 posting and post 1375 is just never from a wolf

#1606/19: Taffy and ladd discuss desperado OMG I AM DONE FINALLY

#1719 ladd defends taffy from Visor SR: this seems completely opposite to how they seem to be posting afaict they have plenty of attitude/sassiness

#1723: Defending taffy from Visor's vote: and even besides that taffy is the villageriest player itg IMO i can villa case them if needed but they'd be my 1 do not ever kill

#1778: Taffy asks if Renata agrees with #1771 (see Renata/Kage/Monty sections)

#1830: Responding to Taffy about #1771: They're both kind of coasting. GTH I go with Monty as wolf over Kage, half because Kage feels so artless in his lack of engagement and half because Visor likes Kage less.


VULGARD

mEH

ENDER

#730s: Disagrees with Ender's Logic read: "I dont think thats what logic did?"

#977: Reads: Kage/Ladd/Dyachei are the grouping I don't really have a read on properly rn.

#1038: Reads: Csargo is an ehehhh with Dya/ladd/Kage just above.

#1168: Ender scummy for not wanting to fight with Pizza. Just look in the general vicinity of this post for other attacks on Ender by ladd.

.....

#1719: are you clearing ender just cause maybe he got shot?

#1739: Insisting on the Ender case to Visor

#1785: Ladd calling out Visor's posts as wolfy but continuing to vote me is an interesting mood

#1809: Ladd is wolf and I think with Visor based on how neither wants Visir to flip. Or is that prefliopy ego talking? Idk




Commentary (D1): Ladd's first post is #364, hard-suss on "obv wolf" Logic with a vote. Vulgard fills out the page with concerns about this entry. Logic wagon is very dominant now with 4 votes, Visor is pleased, Ladd builds the case and expresses Cape as "one of my few villagers." Vulgard calls this PIS/TMI. Almost all early ladd interactions are with Visor and/or fluff. Amy remarks that she doesn't need to contribute now that ladd is voting with her on Logic. Cape finds ladd's pop-in to be scummy.

Spooge being overpowered in extensive discussion with Vulgard:



:ave:

Ladd has almost no thread-presence D1 due to time issues. He returns near EOD to tell us that he now suspects Ender more than Visor, for Pizza-interaction reasons (and votes there). He is essentially starting the Ender wagon from scratch, and speaks out against Logic and Visor wagons with basically neutral or mixed reads.

Amy #745: uhhh cape and vulgard are probably my strongest townreads. visor and hk maybe a tier below, both mostly off vibes. dya i don't want to kill before i can get a solid read on them, ladd/pizza i kinda just don't want to kill d1 in general

During EOD neither Visor nor Logic find anything to hold against ladd, though spooge votes ladd. Congratulations again to Cape, Vulgard, and Spooge for seeing through him D1 despite minimal thread presence.


Commentary (D2): I deprioritize recording ladd assoc with dead/clear players for D2 at some point.



kappa

Cape #984: Most interested in voting Kage/ladd/Monty

Vulgard #1011: ladd is probably town for his play on d1 being very idgaf yet wagon switching from Logic when I think he could've reasonably stuck there.

[Just an editorial, but I think high-tier mafia often make such switches between townie wagons on D1 because there are no stakes for them, while potentially creating the illusion of stakes, as well as setting up future antispew]

Pizza #1054: Case for why the NK is not ladd's work.

Ladd gets active again from the #1160s onward. He quickly publishes a number of reactions/reads, starting with reaffirmation of his t-Cape read ("villagery reaction to pizza weird early posting") and ending with more ender push. Lot of focus on people's interactions with Pizza.

#1174 ladd approves of Pizza's scumleans (Vulgard/Spooge/Amp/Ender), starts to find Pizza towny. However, also starts to TL Vulgard for Pizza interactions and other.

#1193 ladd summary hard to categorize:



Pizza #1489: Pizza's death-leans have ladd at the bottom.

Ender reads #1506: I want to wolfread them for their treatment of me but I know that's OMGUS so I'm reserving this slot until I have someone else read them for me.

#1579 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/154761-Casual-december-game?p=2053838197&viewfull=1#post2053838197) is ladd's final full reads post. I distribute contents among the sections above.







Xposting with ladd's wall of reads is excellent.

In the #1600s Visor cases Ladd, as well as Taffy, dya, and HK. See character logs at the top - interesting that at the same time, Kage and dya - in response to Visor - had the same low-detail TLs on ladd and taffy.

#1719 is a very important ladd post defending taffy/hollow/dya from Visor (I've quoted it previously).

ladd interacts with Visor quite a lot throughout D2, esp. late day, esp. about Ender.



ladd D2 scumleans hard to categorize #1756

Cape struggles with his scumlean on ladd throughout the day.

Random observation: ladd interacts most heavily with people he scumreads or is voting, or top thread suspects.

brief skim says Monty = town. caveat is that if nobody does "work" a wolf can do "work" and look really really good. I don't think that's going on here.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (4): Vulgard, Renata, Taffy, HK
Taffy (3): Monty, Csargo, Ender
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

EOD in one hour

[Renata]

if you'd be so kind as to elaborate on your first comment there I'd appreciate it because I'm not seeing how you make that connection

First comment was "Particularly I do not believe that kill happens when ladd is scum."

This does look good for HK.

[Totally not Taffy]

I'm hard on ender = town now. Does removing him from the pile of renata/dya/csargo change things for you?

That would make it more likely there's a wolf in the bottom group.

[Totally not Taffy]

This is practically OGI, but looking at dya's contradiction-posts on ladd again



If dya and taffy share a scumchat, would dya be referring to taffy as "he" in-thread D2? :shrug:

You should not read into that. I have other accounts with male names, and Dyachei is an MU mod.

[Montmorency]

I think it depends entirely on how Ladd interacted with them, yeah? Like ok if it's just reads list it probably doesn't mean a thing. if it's continual engagement while calling them top town and reminding others of the top town read then yeah, it's meaningful and not in a positive way.

Like it's super easy to talk about your partners in all directions, more so than it is for people you're not partnered with.

He didn't do that with anyone but known townies, namely Cape and Vulgard, and maybe a little bit of Logic late D1. Otherwise, see the Assoc sheet, it's basically just brief comments.

[Boquise]

my town consist of
ender, vulgard, hk, monty, csargo

i think the way ladd talked to me about kage is not the way you talk about a wolf partner. It was wishy-washy in hindsight and I am reading it as ladd endorsing my wagon on Kage tbh

i am left with renata, dya, amy, taffy
i think renata and taffy have been sounding townie in some posts fwiw
since csargo is in monty's poe, i just wanna say that i think he and renata are not scum together due to how they have posted towards each other today, and how renata rejected my town read of him.

also i am mulling over how i should conclude
1. players coming to renata's rescue when i tried to put light on pizza's sus on her. Does that thread spew her town?
2. renata objecting hard to Amy/Dya being paired. Does that pair or unpair her with them?

so many questions and the clock already passed midnight

[Renata]

I thought you already decided that I'm hard paired with both of them. Doesn't seem like there's much for you to mull over unless you're reconsidering, and this post doesn't suggest anything like that.

[Boquise]

interesting that both renata and taffy vote dya at this point (or well taffy doesnt have much choice tbh)..
mmm

[hollowkatt]

"Get in the death bucket" might be the most towny thing I've seen you say. It's real though. I read your posts and saw you got to Ladd's death only after responding to other things, then say something like "oh wow well lookie at that" and that's always going to read sus to me. Fake surprise. Like, you had seen Vulgard's posts at that point. Most people would scroll ahead to see who got got (if anyone) before continuing with commentary that might be irrelevant.

I get what you're trying to say but here's what I said when I got to that point:



if ender is town, i think ladd could be scum, regardless of my own read of ladd. Because if Ender is town, ladd has strictly pushed only townies. This would mean that Amy is town too

Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

Csargo, hollowkatt, Montmorency, Ampharos, dyachei, EnderWiggin, ladd, Vulgard, Boquise, Renata, Totally not Taffy, Kagemusha


swag helluva shot vulgard

I'm not sure what response you're looking for there from me? Also why scroll ahead when the immediate reactions to the action being triggered are possibly important?

[Boquise]

I thought you already decided that I'm hard paired with both of them. Doesn't seem like there's much for you to mull over unless you're reconsidering, and this post doesn't suggest anything like that.

No, I have gone back and forth on it
seems like we are reading two different posts if you genuinely think that post doesn't suggest any sort of reconsideration

[hollowkatt]

This is practically OGI, but looking at dya's contradiction-posts on ladd again



If dya and taffy share a scumchat, would dya be referring to taffy as "he" in-thread D2? :shrug:

I wouldn't read into that at all

[Montmorency]

You should not read into that. I have other accounts with male names, and Dyachei is an MU mod.

OK.

Boquise please don't EOD snipe, however you vote

I assume dya hasn't shown up today as antispew.

[Boquise]

Vote Dya

[hollowkatt]

That would make it more likely there's a wolf in the bottom group.

the bottom group of your original post? (boq, kage, amy) or the bottom group removing ender (renata/dya/csargo)?

[Boquise]

OK.

Boquise please don't EOD snipe, however you vote

I assume dya hasn't shown up today as antispew.

eod is at 01:00 for me and i go up at 5
so nah tbh

[Renata]

interesting that both renata and taffy vote dya at this point (or well taffy doesnt have much choice tbh)..
mmm

Interesting (TM) that you undermine your own shade immediately upon saying it, but you still think it's necessary to say.

[hollowkatt]

He didn't do that with anyone but known townies, namely Cape and Vulgard, and maybe a little bit of Logic late D1. Otherwise, see the Assoc sheet, it's basically just brief comments.

yeah. reading ladd for spew is hard. I think you did well with what you cobbled together though and as we move forward I think it'll become more relevant, just gotta have more bodies

[Renata]

I get what you're trying to say but here's what I said when I got to that point:



I'm not sure what response you're looking for there from me? Also why scroll ahead when the immediate reactions to the action being triggered are possibly important?

Nothing anymore. You're probably just town and I'm a dumb-ass.

[Boquise]

Interesting (TM) that you undermine your own shade immediately upon saying it, but you still think it's necessary to say.

i do not care about undermining my own thoughts since they are fluid and can change between 2 posts or even within 1 post and i dont care about appearing "townie" in a thread tbh

[Boquise]

i deserve cake if dya and amy are the same alignment tho tbh

[Boquise]

renata, why is it that you are focusing on my low-hanging fruit posts and not the posts where i have answered your questions and critique tbh?

[Totally not Taffy]

my town consist of
ender, vulgard, hk, monty, csargo

i think the way ladd talked to me about kage is not the way you talk about a wolf partner. It was wishy-washy in hindsight and I am reading it as ladd endorsing my wagon on Kage tbh

i am left with renata, dya, amy, taffy
i think renata and taffy have been sounding townie in some posts fwiw
since csargo is in monty's poe, i just wanna say that i think he and renata are not scum together due to how they have posted towards each other today, and how renata rejected my town read of him.

also i am mulling over how i should conclude
1. players coming to renata's rescue when i tried to put light on pizza's sus on her. Does that thread spew her town?
2. renata objecting hard to Amy/Dya being paired. Does that pair or unpair her with them?

so many questions and the clock already passed midnight

1 not if he later changed that read like people suggested
2 neither, there are too many people objecting to your pairing for it to be meaningful

What was your opinion on Csargo's case on Renata?

[Totally not Taffy]

the bottom group of your original post? (boq, kage, amy) or the bottom group removing ender (renata/dya/csargo)?

If the people I'm looking at for scum are Ender/Renata/Dyachei/Csargo and I remove Ender the rest needs to be the exact scumteam or I'm misclearing others. My money's on the latter because otherwise it seems too simple.

[Renata]

Town

Cape
Hollowkatt
Ampharos

Little Bit Towny

Mont
Visor
Blade

Meh

Sorta Wolfy

Taffy

Quite Wolfy

Logic
Pizza
Vulgard

I have read all the posts, these are my reads. Goodbye.

I've never having enough time to do a proper ISO of Taffy today, but reading anyway.

First thing that stands out is this read which is dead opposite of my own at this point and I wish I knew what they were thinking.

[Boquise]

1 not if he later changed that read like people suggested
2 neither, there are too many people objecting to your pairing for it to be meaningful

What was your opinion on Csargo's case on Renata?

he did, but the point was how the thread reacted to someone sussing a player who is at the top of town reads tbh
yeh but they were one of the first and rejected hardest tbh. But oh well, I will leave that point then.


i dont know if i agree with the case, but i think csargo is townie for the case tbh

[Renata]

I find this post important.

I'm not sure what alignment it points taffy towards, but I strongly think this will be clearing or damning in the future

This amuses me. In the linked post was shade on me (drawing attention to the fact I hadn't posted yet) and a bare town read on Boquise.

Do with that what you will.

[Totally not Taffy]

This amuses me. In the linked post was shade on me (drawing attention to the fact I hadn't posted yet) and a bare town read on Boquise.

Do with that what you will.

I think Logic's comment might have had more to do with what I said about him being either town or hard bussed.

[Renata]

Are there other players in this game who you think should know about Visor being good at reading you?

Taffy, what were you thinking when you asked this question?

[Totally not Taffy]

Taffy, what were you thinking when you asked this question?

That Logic's reasoning on why Visor misreading him was a bad look for Visor was only valid if there were no other players in the game who could catch him that way.

[Renata]

Is this based on more than that he's putting you as a top town and you feel you haven't earned that spot yet so he must have tmi?


Vote: Logic

three-way tie

Wait, WHAT?

Taffy's one and only post having to do with Logic's actual alignment is that he looks like a towny. What is this and why. Please answer.

Also never at least to this point answered a very very good question from Logic about who, if he's being bussed (as Taffy suggested was one of the options, with the other being that he is just town), are his partners. Can't exactly go back and demand a response on that one at this point, just noted.

[Renata]

Ender (4): Ladd, Csargo, dyachei, Logic
Ampharos (4): Boquise, Visor, Renata, Montmo
Logic (4): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Taffy
Luv2spooge (1): HK
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Ladd (1): luv2spooge

EOD in 8 minutes.

This was vote count after Taffy's vote. Why logic over Ender and Amy.

[Totally not Taffy]

Wait, WHAT?

Taffy's one and only post having to do with Logic's actual alignment is that he looks like a towny. What is this and why. Please answer.

Also never at least to this point answered a very very good question from Logic about who, if he's being bussed (as Taffy suggested was one of the options, with the other being that he is just town), are his partners. Can't exactly go back and demand a response on that one at this point, just noted.

That top post is a question from me to HK asking about why HK was scumreading Spooge.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (5): Vulgard, Renata, Taffy, HK, Boquise
Taffy (3): Monty, Csargo, Ender
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

EOD in 15 minutes

[Renata]

That's EoD1, it's as far as I can get.

[Totally not Taffy]

That top post is a question from me to HK asking about why HK was scumreading Spooge.

And I made several actual posts about Logic's alignment.

[Renata]

That top post is a question from me to HK asking about why HK was scumreading Spooge.

No forget that one, I pulled it aside for some other reason and it accidentally multiquoted. Why did you vote on Logic's bandwagon at end of day to tie it up with Ender and Amy, when your only read on any of them all day was Logic town? (You had some interaction with Ender, too rushed to be certain you didn't give a read; nothing I think for Amy.)

[Renata]

Yeah. You called him towny, and then you said it based on wagon stagnation he was either town or it was bussing. When you were asked by Logic who might be bussing him, no response. Then you voted Logic. Why.

[Totally not Taffy]

No forget that one, I pulled it aside for some other reason and it accidentally multiquoted. Why did you vote on Logic's bandwagon at end of day to tie it up with Ender and Amy, when your only read on any of them all day was Logic town? (You had some interaction with Ender, too rushed to be certain you didn't give a read; nothing I think for Amy.)

The bolded is untrue. This is going to look very bad for you if Dyachei flips wolf.

[Renata]

Don't give me that. Answer my question.

[Renata]

Tell me what you were thinking. I may have details about Ender and Amy wrong but the Logic read, the "logic might be town or being bussed" comment, the lack of response to Logic's question about that, the Logic vote out of nowhere are all correct unless I missed something on ctrl-F. So point out what you were thinking or what I missed.

[Renata]

It should not take five minutes to answer a question about why you voted for somebody on an end of day wagon. It really shouldn't.

[Renata]

Even if I did miss something and you now think I'm scum, you're not lynching me today so you're not trying to prove I misrepresented you over and above just answering the question.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (5): Vulgard, Renata, Taffy, HK, Boquise
Taffy (3): Monty, Csargo, Ender
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

EOD in 5 minutes

[Renata]

vote: Taffy

[Totally not Taffy]

Tell me what you were thinking. I may have details about Ender and Amy wrong but the Logic read, the "logic might be town or being bussed" comment, the lack of response to Logic's question about that, the Logic vote out of nowhere are all correct unless I missed something on ctrl-F. So point out what you were thinking or what I missed.

I do not believe you iso'd me at all. I specifically said his SoD looked like he was trying too hard to fit in with the wolftell jokes, mentioned p133, but that I thought his later posting improved. Then I engaged with him about his case on Visor, and found his reasoning lacking (though you're right I didn't say that till D2 I think).

You're trying to make my voting for Logic look wolfy but it wasn't.

[Renata]

vote:Dyachei

I'll leave it to tomorrow.

[Renata]

It's possible the rushed ctrl-F did miss something, but Jesus Christ.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote: Dya

[Montmorency]

Love both Amy and Kage being offwagon today.

Vulgard

If dyachei flips scum, please put in the time to ISO them overnight. I think it's going to pay off for us.

Vulgard could really lead the Town.


If only Mafia D1s still looked like this D3.

[EnderWiggin]

Save Vul, don't save me pls.

[Renata]

And it still shouldn't have taken that long to answer.

[Raskolnikov]

Dya (6): Vulgard, , Taffy, HK, Boquise, Renata, Ender
Taffy (2): Monty, Csargo
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

[Raskolnikov]

EOD3, Dyachei is ousted! They flip mafia goon!

[Raskolnikov]

SOD4, Vulgard has died during the night! He flips vanilla town!

SOD has been advanced a little. EOD will be 7PM EST, next thrusday.

Csargo, hollowkatt, Montmorency, Ampharos, EnderWiggin, Vulgard, Boquise, Renata, Totally not Taffy, Kagemusha

[Ampharos]

mfw

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/vqxtDNikbNQ/hqdefault.jpg

[Ampharos]

absolutely brutal bus by HK if him/dya are paired

combined with my earlier thought on that duo, inclined to think he's just town

[Ampharos]

prolly looking at something like

not touching HK/ender/monty/renata

taffy i think looks ~decent for the dya vote, though not as good as HK

leaves boq/kage/csargo to contain 2? and if i commit to boq/kage being unpaired, then

Vote: Csargo

mafia is so easy(?)

[Ampharos]

it is EXTREMELY funny that i seem to be the only one who's realized day started early

[hollowkatt]

prolly looking at something like

not touching HK/ender/monty/renata

taffy i think looks ~decent for the dya vote, though not as good as HK

leaves boq/kage/csargo to contain 2? and if i commit to boq/kage being unpaired, then

Vote: Csargo

mafia is so easy(?)

I wonder if the taffy wagon sprung up to save Dya...

[hollowkatt]

and if so there's wolves there

[Ampharos]

Dya (2): Ender, Vulgard
Taffy (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha


Taffy (3): Monty, Csargo, Ender
Dya (2): Vulgard, Renata
Monty(1): HK
Kage (1): Amy
HK (1): Kagemusha

EOD in 1 hour 50 minutes

looks at csargo

[Csargo]

I thought they were both woofs

[Renata]

test

[Renata]

Ok that was weird. It wasn't letting me post.

I was trying to write that all else being equal I want to lynch Kage. I haven't done a shred of work overnight however.

[EnderWiggin]

Wait day started early.

Lmao.

[Csargo]

I'm pretty sure my iso kinda proves that :shrug:

yeet me if you want tho

[EnderWiggin]

I will admit that I had Taffy as townish still and was vote-hovering her with the intent to last minute snipe back just to see if anyone would take the bait.

[Renata]

Taffy looks a little short of potential partners, maybe.

[Renata]

At least among active players.

[Csargo]

What does that mean Renata?

[Renata]

Unsorted.

I love all of these people and am sad that there's on average 2+ wolves in this list.

https://i.imgur.com/IPJnUUM.gif

Me bracing myself for votes I won't like to make later on.

Please for the love of god be villagery so I have to redo my nulltown pile.

Click through to the list. lol.

[EnderWiggin]

Also glad to have towned with you Vul.

Glad I found you early too.

I'll see you in dvc

o7

[Csargo]

Click through to the list. lol.

:hide:

[EnderWiggin]

I am also clearing Monty for now. There's still not 100% clear but I'll be surprised if they were w/w/w with Dya/Ladd specifically

[EnderWiggin]

I'm doing to do a proper Dya spew analysis but like later.

[Csargo]

we were all on ender, it'd be kinda funny if true.

[hollowkatt]

looks at csargo


I thought they were both woofs

Possible sure

[EnderWiggin]

You've seen villagers do it, too

Slowly leaning into Boq unpairings.

[EnderWiggin]

I'm not doing nothing else though?

See previous post this is just more of it

[EnderWiggin]

There's a really stupid reason to town Csargo and I might get burned for it but doing it anyway

[EnderWiggin]

Ladd & dyachei have rolled mafia in Org games I've - many of us have - played in. I don't remember any meta. Null.

Hindsight this post is hilarious for this line.

[Renata]

Trying to go through Dyachei's iso, distracted by Csargo being wolfy. This is a response to Pizza about Pizza's push on Ender over Ender's Logic case.


I liked the Logic post, mostly cause I agree with it. And it doesn't really preclude Logic from engaging with it, but it is sort of passive in the way you described.

The post on you just seems wrong from my experience at least. The last line is bad in the post about you imo, the rest in finetm.

Overall, it's not great I'd agree.

"liked", "passive", "wrong", "bad", "fine"

This follows a post about Logic that used "weird" "odd" and "meh" to sum up to a "negative" opinion.

It's the same thing as he did in his case on me the other day, aside from trying to link me to wolf!Ender. Lots and lots of shade (and somewhat contradictory in Ender's case), no commitment. This is why I had Csargo in my PoE early day two.

Anyway, back to Dyachei.

[Renata]

There's a really stupid reason to town Csargo and I might get burned for it but doing it anyway

I currently have tinfoil on you if Csargo flips wolf and you don't die. But probably both of those would have to be true.

[hollowkatt]

Taffy is Schrodinger's Player and I think it would be good if we can solve them today. And by solve I mean actually solve not just chop and hope for the best. I'm tentatively working on the idea that Taffy was the wagon to save Dya but I haven't confirmed any of that yet. I'm going to review how the wagons were created, who moved where and when, and see what I can figure out.

I'd call Ender town for sure. This post from Monty worries me


Love both Amy and Kage being offwagon today.

Vulgard

If dyachei flips scum, please put in the time to ISO them overnight. I think it's going to pay off for us.

Vulgard could really lead the Town.


If only Mafia D1s still looked like this D3.

Specifically he's banking, if town, on there being a protect that could be on vulgard, he calls out Amy and Kage for being off wagon while not mentioning that the wagon he is on is a wagon of two, Monty/Csargo on Taffy

Can the dya wagon be pure? Taffy was there as self-pres, we know that to be true. No alignment can be discerned there.
I think Ender is town. I'm town. I think Boq is town, or at least thought so when we real timed. Vulgard was confirmed town already, and is now dead and extra confirmed.
That leaves Renata on the wagon and honestly I've felt good about their posting lately.

Kage being tunneled on me isn't wolfy in a vacuum but is wolfy in context of a wolf going over. I'm a safe vote there, Kage isn't making risky plays.

Amy is absolutely disconnected from the thread. I think there are paths we can take but we need to take smart paths not just sleepwalk into things.

[EnderWiggin]

Renata.

You realise I would've had to have been bussed on D1 by BOTH flipped partners when Logic still had a viable wagon to even be a possible wolf.

Like you really think I was like "Just hellbus me I'll be okay."?

[hollowkatt]

fortunately D3 was only 12 pages so understanding wagon formation won't be too difficult. I'll have a chart later this evening.

[Montmorency]

Shit.

Yesterday's ouster carries no alignment information, for obvious gamestate reasons, though it hurts Csargo a single pip if Taffy is town.

If I had to clear Csargo atm the sole available factor would be the D1 secondary wagon (Ender) containing ladd, dya, Csargo, Monty, Logic; <10% chance of 3/4 maf piling onto a secondary wagon among t/t wagons on D1. From meta, Csargo specifically I feel would be self-conscious enough not to wagon in that manner. This is enough to give Csargo a pass for a couple days.

I've tried skimming through D1 and it seems I previously misunderstood dya's relationship with Amp. I can't clear her. But we'll see what comes of it when I make a more thorough examination.

One other point in her favor would be the D2 tally. There should at the very minimum be one scum on Visor - I refuse to believe there isn't - but even two is likely


EOD2, Visor has been yeeted under the sun! He flips vanilla town

Visor (6): Ender, Taffy, Renata, Csargo, HK, Boq
Ender (4): Ladd, Vulgard, Monty, Visor
HK (3): Kagemusha, dya, Cape
Vulgard (1): Amy

One thing I dislike about Taffy's D3 is her gesturing at teams like dya-Ender-Kage (even if she reassessed Ender under opposition), when ofc a POE like that would guarantee Mafia victory. Not having to NK Ender, and if Kage town, well, that's almost a necessary ML for Mafia. But Rule of Three in ladd's defenses works in her favor, for whatever that's worth.

Vote: Taffy should be part of today's agenda. If you want Kage or Amy you're going to need an affirmative case, a slam-dunk interaction or slip.


Possible teams (excluding Renata, Csargo):

Kage-Amp
Kage-Csargo
Kage-Taffy
Kage-Boq
Kage-HK
Kage-Renata
Renata-Amp
Renata-HK
Renata-Taffy
Renata-Csargo
Renata-Boq
Boq-Amp
Boq-Csargo
Boq-Taffy
Boq-HK
HK-Csargo
HK-Taffy
HK-Amp
Amp-Taffy
Amp-Csargo
Csargo-Taffy

[hollowkatt]

ender and amy sitting in a tree
w
o
l
f
i
n
g
first comes chops
then comes kills
then comes the wolf team with the lulzy thrills

also I'm sad nobody saw this and said anything I thought it was hilarious

[Renata]

What does that mean Renata?

She was voted by four people yesterday including me, while a low-posting wolf was the main wagon from the first moment of the day. First pass, none of those people are scum with her. They'd want her alive over Dyachei any day of the week. The people are Dya were mostly clear or nearly so. So who's left? Amy? Kage?

[hollowkatt]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

this exists

[hollowkatt]

Dya/Ladd/Amy is not w/w/w

Just reading back and I'm more and more confident on this read.

this also exists but I'm tentatively thinking amy town anyways so meh

[Renata]

Renata.

You realise I would've had to have been bussed on D1 by BOTH flipped partners when Logic still had a viable wagon to even be a possible wolf.

Like you really think I was like "Just hellbus me I'll be okay."?

Forgive me, I did say it was tinfoil. Still weirded out by Csargo trying to make me out to be scum with you while you were still under suspicion, which doesn't make much sense as a wolf's push if you are town.

[hollowkatt]

https://i.imgur.com/K3Xpgvy.png

All the D3 votes by player in order of how they voted. bold is where they ended.
someone smarter than me solve this plx

[Csargo]

Trying to go through Dyachei's iso, distracted by Csargo being wolfy. This is a response to Pizza about Pizza's push on Ender over Ender's Logic case.



"liked", "passive", "wrong", "bad", "fine"

This follows a post about Logic that used "weird" "odd" and "meh" to sum up to a "negative" opinion.

It's the same thing as he did in his case on me the other day, aside from trying to link me to wolf!Ender. Lots and lots of shade (and somewhat contradictory in Ender's case), no commitment. This is why I had Csargo in my PoE early day two.

Anyway, back to Dyachei.

What's the problem? Spell it out to me like I'm dumb, cause I am.

You called me town day two and day three you voted me. Just for reference.

[Renata]

The problem with your posts on day one? They're kinda trash. They don't really say anything. A mild negative on Logic without any real details (which *fine*, it's day one), and the response to Pizza on Ender says less than nothing too (which is more of a problem because it was a lot of words to say so little).

I had you in PoE on my first day two reads list because of these posts, pretty sure I did write it down. Then by the time I would have gotten round to doing anything about it I thought you were posting much better.

Day three vote was because of your case on me, which again relied *heavily* (aside from the Ender bit) on stuff that's weird, with absolutely nothing said about why "weird" is scummy.

It's not good. It is very very questionable and if you are town and posting like this, please don't.

[Csargo]

I'm not gonna say I believe strongly in anything I say, as either alignment, that's just how I do things.

I went into yesterday wanting to look at the people Visor brought up, because I thought Visor probably had the best view of the game of anyone. So that's what I did. I'm not gonna say I did a good job, but that's what I was trying to accomplish.

I simplified what was essentially my problem with you and Taffy. I think they were reasonable to bring up, though I doubt I did a good job of it. I never looked at Boq tho, which is a problem.

[Renata]

The problem with your posts on day one? They're kinda trash. They don't really say anything. A mild negative on Logic without any real details (which *fine*, it's day one), and the response to Pizza on Ender says less than nothing too (which is more of a problem because it was a lot of words to say so little).

I had you in PoE on my first day two reads list because of these posts, pretty sure I did write it down. Then by the time I would have gotten round to doing anything about it I thought you were posting much better.

Day three vote was because of your case on me, which again relied *heavily* (aside from the Ender bit) on stuff that's weird, with absolutely nothing said about why "weird" is scummy.

It's not good. It is very very questionable and if you are town and posting like this, please don't.

To clarify yet further, both of those day one posts do a great impression of a wolf who knows they're looking at townies trying to lynch townies.

[Renata]

Looking forward to seeing you address Boquise then.

[Csargo]

Sure I'll stop.

[Montmorency]

Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction


#1646: Visor asks dya for thoughts on ladd: ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts
#1690s: Asks Visor about his ladd case, doesn't like taffy's pop-in either. In response to Visor's wall-case responding to dya: yeah i think he hasn't spent enough time in the thread for me to get a good read on him

was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.


#730s: First interactions. Ladd makes his second appearance of D1 (see commentary) and dyachei immediately asks for ladd's read on themselves. Ladd responds concisely: "You seemed villagery enuf."



https://i.imgur.com/K3Xpgvy.png

All the D3 votes by player in order of how they voted. bold is where they ended.
someone smarter than me solve this plx

I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

[Renata]

Yeah I think so too.

I got through the first 25 pages which is as much as I'm going to be able to do tonight.

So far I have interactions with (living players only) Csargo, Amy, Boquise, Ender, Monty.

Boquise stands out as the most sketchy, with a light scumread for decent reason that's retracted for a really weak reason. She winds up fourth on his town list after that (second on the "leans town" list, which is Visor, Dyachei, HK, luvs). It feels pretty bad.

Csargo looks great to me on the other hand in a spew sense. Chucks in a (Visor and) dyachei can be yeeted if Logic is town comment referencing one of Dyachei's posts that vaguely references Logic. Then he turns around and makes it clear that at the moment he's reading both Visor and Dyachei as town, and Logic as scum. It's weird in a good way.

Amy's interactions with Dyachei feel pure, with the only real yikes being a dyachei list of light villa reads that includes two dead townies and Amy.

Ender there's very little, one unfocused question from Dyachei to Ender, one response. Null read.

Monty's just a single comment from Dyachei that she didn't even notice he was in the game. Probably null too.

Vote: Boquise for now.

[Renata]

I'll try to write this all up fancy-like when I'm done. If there will actually be time for me to do this, I don't know.

[Renata]

Fuck me I did the pronoun wrong again. I'm sorry, this has got to suck to read, if you are.

[hollowkatt]

Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction



was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.






I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

I'm not inclined to agree with that conclusion. I think there's actionable information contained therein and want to spend a lot of time on the people who looked vv disconnected from engagement yesterday throughout the day. Namely Taffy, Kage, Amy, Boq, with a side of Renata for good measure. This was to collate the votes. Now I'm going back through and reading the reasons they gave, if any, and where in the day we were.

[EnderWiggin]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

God I hate it.

[EnderWiggin]

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

[Renata]

I have no useful thoughts on Kage. Unless there's something unexpectedly juice in the iso it's going to be a case of who gets eliminated from consideration and what worlds are left.

[Montmorency]

Boq and Tally are good cases to explore today.


Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

Mechanically could be with anyone really (except HK for reasons I forget, and Amy because come on). Nothing militates against an independent scumread if you want one.

But...

If Kage is town then Mafia NEED him as an ML. I don't know that there's a single player alive who would venture to clear Kage - even Amy is approaching rand for most - so it's a real landmine of a slot that needs careful handling.


I'm not inclined to agree with that conclusion. I think there's actionable information contained therein and want to spend a lot of time on the people who looked vv disconnected from engagement yesterday throughout the day. Namely Taffy, Kage, Amy, Boq, with a side of Renata for good measure. This was to collate the votes. Now I'm going back through and reading the reasons they gave, if any, and where in the day we were.

Don't take it from me. To quote one of Pizza's essays:


What is harder to analyze is Bussing.

Because straight up killing a wolf is how town has to win the game.

A wagon of 7 votes appears on a wolf. Some of those have to be townies, but who? Some can be wolves, but even then, they might not be.

Town, in hunting my partners for bussing, will hurt their own townies who are solving properly.

Bussing creates the situation where town has to kill townies for doing things townies have to do in order to win games.

I am also very good at bussing. It's my strategy every game as a wolf, everyone knows it, and it still works, because it is the strongest strategy by far and it is anti-analysis.

7 people on a wolf. You're one of them and town. Which of the other 6 names are my partners? How many of them are?

Now, suppose you find them eventually. Wagon on my partner.

Which of the people on THAT wagon is a wolf? If any?

Remember, you also have to consider people who defended them, ignored them, distanced from them. All of those are also viable, so when I bus 80 percent of the time, the remaining 20 percent is my partners who are NOT getting caught when you suspect bussing.

But I bus and get bussed enough you HAVE to consider it.

Therefore, everyone on the second wolf wagon is a suspect besides yourself. And everyone off wagon as well.

Bussing, find partner 2 in a list of 10 names. Again, find partner 3 in a list of 9 names. Find partner 4 in a list of 7 names.

Bussing gets a wolf to endgame because once everyone in town has killed a wolf, everyone has town credit.

Which means no one has town credit. Everyone is null. Everyone is a suspect. Everyone can have bussed. It is anti-analysis.

The wolf nightkill can land on anyone, because everyone is equally villagery, and everyone knows the wolves hid within the townsiding strategy of bussing.


D3 started with potentially no one on the Mafia team being POEd. Late D3 was Mafia leader flipped with a goon getting heavily cased and wagoned. Totally different environment from D1-2. It's also why one of the worst actions Csargo has taken all game involved a case he made just prior to ladd's flip.

[EnderWiggin]

I do agree D3 is the best day for analysis because wolves were reversed on hard after having a game basically going in their favour.

[Montmorency]

I do agree D3 is the best day for analysis because wolves were reversed on hard after having a game basically going in their favour.

I was saying the opposite. https://i.imgur.com/geQssqi.png

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

[EnderWiggin]

I was saying the opposite. https://i.imgur.com/geQssqi.png

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

Yes, but wolves would have been reeling in the moment on D3.

Even the best wolves usually have to recalibrate when gamestate hard shifts against them.

[Csargo]

D3 kills motivation/morale/momentum for a wolf team that was in a good position coming into the day. Especially with Pizza blowing himself up and seemingly not clearing anyone in Vulgard/Ender. You look for the people who had the wind knocked out of their sails. You find wolfs in that pile.

[Csargo]

I don't have any thoughts on Kage outside of what I've already said.

[Boquise]

ZZZZ
I feel like Kage was a vanity wagon made in hope to remove the oomph from the main wagons

[hollowkatt]

God I hate it.

stop thinking my thoughts


Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

this exists

[hollowkatt]

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

ego solve: kage is a wolf and they've been trying to kill me for days now

[hollowkatt]

Boq and Tally are good cases to explore today.



Mechanically could be with anyone really (except HK for reasons I forget, and Amy because come on). Nothing militates against an independent scumread if you want one.

But...

If Kage is town then Mafia NEED him as an ML. I don't know that there's a single player alive who would venture to clear Kage - even Amy is approaching rand for most - so it's a real landmine of a slot that needs careful handling.



Don't take it from me. To quote one of Pizza's essays:





D3 started with potentially no one on the Mafia team being POEd. Late D3 was Mafia leader flipped with a goon getting heavily cased and wagoned. Totally different environment from D1-2. It's also why one of the worst actions Csargo has taken all game involved a case he made just prior to ladd's flip.

I'm still working on the voting analysis but assume you're right for a hot second. That would put the POE squarely at:
Csargo, Monty, Amy, Kage if you really do think the Dya wagon is pure in which case we kill all of them yeah?

[Boquise]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote: Taffy

Sorry friend, but you have been wolfsiding.

Talk to me about your viewpoint please.

[hollowkatt]

I was saying the opposite. https://i.imgur.com/geQssqi.png

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

I don't think dya ever got established. their pushes were weak, they were thread disconnected, and they never brought any kind of case or thought to the thread that had any meat to it. That's what triggered me on dya in the first place, they were functionally the definition of milquetoast.

that being said I agree with ender and csargo here:

Yes, but wolves would have been reeling in the moment on D3.

Even the best wolves usually have to recalibrate when gamestate hard shifts against them.


D3 kills motivation/morale/momentum for a wolf team that was in a good position coming into the day. Especially with Pizza blowing himself up and seemingly not clearing anyone in Vulgard/Ender. You look for the people who had the wind knocked out of their sails. You find wolfs in that pile.

Wolves couldn't have expected vulgard to nuke Ladd. Nor could they have anticipated a dogpile on dya to end the day. I think, like ender and csargo do, that post ladd nuke wolves were scrambling to figure out what they could do. Do you think wolves were busing Dya and if so who are the wolves in this bucket: Taffy, HK, Boq, Renata, Ender?

Like first you call out Amy and Kage for being off wagon (while the taffy wagon was you and csargo) and now you are saying post ladd was a bus-like situation. I've got a bad feeling about you


Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction



was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.






I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

vote: monty

[hollowkatt]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

do you think they can still be a match? a team that consists of ladd/dya/amy would make some amount of sense given gamestate, kills, and why we were tearing each other apart looking for wolves that just weren't here

[hollowkatt]

ZZZZ
I feel like Kage was a vanity wagon made in hope to remove the oomph from the main wagons

kage on D3 never got higher than 2: amy/monty

[Boquise]

do you think they can still be a match? a team that consists of ladd/dya/amy would make some amount of sense given gamestate, kills, and why we were tearing each other apart looking for wolves that just weren't here

Yes, but monty, renata and Taffy think it ain't valid soooo

[Boquise]

kage on D3 never got higher than 2: amy/monty

A counterwagon gotta start somewhere - doesn't mean an attempt will always be successful. I think if Kage is town then Amy/Monty have higher scum equity. Monty has however been townsiding imo yesterday so I am more into Amy.

Like, remember how ladd treated my FoS on Kage. He encouraged it, gave it his blessings. I do not think he does that to a LHF wolf teammate. Ladd knows by now that it is easy to make me doubt by questioning my reads tbh

[Boquise]

Vote Amy

I think i am being kinda biased here tho because if Amy is a wolf then it is such an in your face towards the naysayers tbh

[Renata]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

Your day one progression on Dyachei is terrible in and of itself.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote Amy

I think i am being kinda biased here tho because if Amy is a wolf then it is such an in your face towards the naysayers tbh

No thoughts on Taffy?

[EnderWiggin]

Need to check Kage interactions.

That is my slate for tomorrow. I'mma sleep.

[Boquise]

Your day one progression on Dyachei is terrible in and of itself.

Nah

[Boquise]

No thoughts on Taffy?

No, not really. She has had a good townie tone but that's it. Like at D1-D2 she was a consensus town by the thread, I don't have much opinions tbh

[Csargo]

She was voted by four people yesterday including me, while a low-posting wolf was the main wagon from the first moment of the day. First pass, none of those people are scum with her. They'd want her alive over Dyachei any day of the week. The people are Dya were mostly clear or nearly so. So who's left? Amy? Kage?

I think Amy/Kage/Boq fit. I don't know why one of those names with Taffy could not be a team. I'm pretty sure that Taffy was as at a similar level to Dya until EoD, as far as posting.

[Csargo]

Vote:Taffy

[hollowkatt]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

it's not weird that you did it, it's with hindsight that it looks bad for you. Fortunately I'm currently leaning "looks bad enough to be good" as while you're an incredible player I have never seen you be that level of brazen with partners and given that when you'd written that Amy was being voted by Kage and Dya wasn't even on the table, really.

You did have Amy/Dya as matched way before Ladd flipped and I follow your logic on how you got there and how you got to the town read.

[hollowkatt]

Yes, but monty, renata and Taffy think it ain't valid soooo

I wolf read monty, town read renata, and null read taffy so frankly I'm not that concerned with how they think about whether or not the team could contain all of ladd/amy/dya

do we know how many wolves exist? I guess that's a legit question to be asking. 15 players would indicate somewhere between 3 and 4, probs safe to assume 4 meaning we're looking for 2 more.

I'm kinda here:
town:
hk
boq
ender
renata

unsure:
csargo

poe:
kage
taffy
amy
monty

[Csargo]

I think Monty is town.